The Fine Print

Rick Scott and President Obama: Linked again?

Gov. Rick Scott is scheduled on Friday to act on another big batch of bills, but one of them is sure to overshadow all of the others.

Scott must decide whether to maintain his desire to keep college tuition low - or sign a bill that lets the University of Florida and Florida State University raise its tuition rates above the current 15 percent a year cap set in state law.

This decision in many ways may be a pivotal one for Scott that factors into this year's elections - as well as maybe even Scott's re-election bid in 2014.

Scott must make his up mind on the legislation (HB 7129) at the same exact time that President Barack Obama has been hitting college campuses in North Carolina, Colorado and Iowa. The president has been calling on Congress to stop interest rates on student loans from increasing this summer.

It has turned into yet another fierce partisan fight because Democrats and Republicans are in sharp disagreement on how to pay for it.

Republicans have responded to Obama's push by saying the real problem for young people right now is that they are unemployed or underemployed due to the ongoing problems in the economy.

But at the same time GOP presumptive nominee Mitt Romney - who Scott has now endorsed - agrees that the interest rate should be keep at its current rate.

Scott himself did not recommend a tuition hike in his budget, although he let stand a five-percent hike for the state's 28 colleges take effect. This week, however, he told reporters that he hopes that the Board of Governors - which oversees the state's universities ( a different set of higher education institutions) - does not use its power to raise tuition up to the full 15 percent now allowed under law.

The governor also said that he not made up his mind on the UF/FSU bill and has prepared both a veto message and a signing message.

You can argue of course tuition hikes - and the student loan issue - are not the same. But at a time that both parties are battling over young voters Scott's action could be used by the Democrats for symbolic purposes.

And it's worth noting that Alachua and Leon counties - the home to UF/FSU - delivered for Obama big-time in 2008. Obama won Florida by more than 236,000 votes. His margin over McCain in those two counties alone was nearly 64,000 votes. Were those votes all from students? No, of course not. But it's fair to say that they helped.

So while there is a political element to all of of this this also a make or break moment for higher education watchers.

The bill was an outgrowth of House Speaker Dean Cannon's speech this past January where he contended that the state's universities are mired in mediocrity and suffer from too much political interference.

In the last several years lawmakers have step-by-step moved closer to this moment. It used to be that tuition was completely in the hands of the Florida Legislature, but they have slowly ceded control to others, primarily the Board of Governors.

This of course has the effect of slowly taking tuition out of the political arena. In the past some Republicans fought this by arguing they did not want to relinquish control over something that affects the pocketbook of thousands of people.

University supporters, however, contend more money is needed to help propel the state's universities forward and make them more competitive with other national schools. The bill would be a first step in that direction.

Still a N.Y. Times article points some interesting facts, including that last year student debt surpassed card debt in 2010 and that for the last three decades tuition has outpaced the rate of inflation.

In many ways Scott and Obama - despite stark differences in many policy areas - are linked together because the jobs situation in Florida (now and in 2014) will be a key to their political success. You can argue over who is responsible, but you can't dismiss the fact that the unemployment rate remains a major factor in their re-election campaigns.

The question is whether or not college affordability becomes another place where the two become connected.

(UPDATE: Scott disappointed UF and FSU supporters and he vetoed the bill. In his veto message, the governor said that he was concerned about the growing debt burden of his students and a lack of jobs for college

"Many Floridians have offered very passionate advice on this issue," Scott wrote. "While this decision has not been easy, I do not feel that I can sign this bill into law without a more detailed plan to ensure the increased tuition requirements on Florida students will provide the return they and other Floridians need on their additional investment."

 

 

The warning letter on the budget that Gov. Rick Scott almost sent out

Gov. Rick Scott on Friday was sent a proposed $70 billion budget approved this year by state lawmakers.

He has until April 21 to sign it and use his line-item veto power to eliminate member and hometown projects or other spending items that the governor finds objectionable.

There's a good chance that this year's budget veto list could be extensive.

Scott of course has made strides to change his dealings with lawmakers from those first few awkward weeks of last year. He even joked this week that he knows a lot more people now which means he's getting a lot more phone calls about items in the budget.

But the question remains just how conciliatory Scott plans to be when it comes to government spending and the budget especially when part of the appeal he made to conservative Republicans and Tea party members was his belief that government spending needs to come down in order to help grow the economy overall.

Consider this: While legislators went along with Scott's desire to bolster education spending (after cutting it deeply the year before) lawmakers did not cut spending as much as the governor had advocated in his own budget recommendations.

And then there's the budget letter he almost sent.

Scott's budget office midway through the session drew up a "draft notice letter" that the governor wanted. Emails show that there was a brief discussion of sending it to the Legislature although ultimately it was never sent out.

And what did the letter say?

"Almost a year later, and after listening to Floridians from many walks of life, I am more convinced than ever that government, if left unchecked, has a tendency to stray from its core mission.  Reducing the size and cost of government are imperative for Florida’s future.    I mentioned in my State-of-the-State address to the 2012 Legislature that as Governor, I view my job to have 3 key requirements:

• Ensuring that Floridians are able to gain employment  
• Securing the right of every Floridian to a quality education
• Keeping the cost of living low

These principles are reflected in my Fiscal Year 2012-13 budget recommendations. Priorities have to be determined and tough decisions have to be made to create a government that is lean and efficient, and most importantly, creates an environment where businesses can flourish and grow jobs.

To maintain my promise to the citizens of Florida to keep government spending in check, I will continue to watch carefully as each house prepares their respective budgets.  I also pledge that I will again closely scrutinize each line item in the anticipated budget for Fiscal Year 2012-13.  As I had noted in the May 26, 2011 veto letter:  “This year, throughout my line-by-line examination of the state budget, I found many expenditures of taxpayer dollars with laudable and important goals but limited accountability.  Those that won my approval this year will not receive approval next year unless my office receives clearly defined measurements submitted with their Fiscal Year 2012-2013 Legislative Budget Requests.” 

 I will watch closely for projects and programs that:

• are not essential to the operation of state government;
• lack sufficient accountability;
• hamper the continued growth of private sector jobs;
• increase our debt burden; or
• represent federal funding that assumes continued state commitment

 With that, I challenge all the members of the Legislature to assess past actions, consider the present critical needs and invest in our future as they finalize their budgets.  

Flash forward to his comments to the press on Tuesday when asked about the budget: "My responsibility is to the taxpayers of the state. If it's a good return on taxpayer money, I'm interested in it."

Last year Scott vetoed more than $600 million although that figure was inflated because the amount of one of the line items was based on land sales that were unlikely to materialize.

But there is the possibility that if Scott sticks to the principles outlined in his "draft notice letter" there could be a sizable amount of vetoes.

It's not just the millions tucked here and there for member projects.

It could be the money lawmakers set aside for school construction projects or private universities. How about the nearly $4 million for public television? Scott vetoed similar funding last year. This year lawmakers have tried to spare a possible veto by calling on the Department of Education to study whether or not public television programs help with learning gains.

The list goes on and on of items that could be targeted, whether its funding for transportation projects, new technology purchase etc. etc.

Scott will not likely top the amount of vetoes he made last year, but depending on how closely he follows his "draft notice letter" the amount could easily be a nine-digit figure.

Could any of these bills get vetoed by Gov. Rick Scott?

Gov. Rick Scott on Wednesday will sign several bills that consist of the "jobs agenda" that he outlined last fall.

And that's when it will start to get interesting.

There have been few surprises so far since the 2012 session ended. Scott signed the "inspirational messages" bill and this latest batch of legislation includes an overhaul of the unemployment compensation system and tax breaks, including another small cut of the state's corporate income tax.

But in the next few weeks Scott will sort out the remaining bills from this year and figure out whether or not he plans to go along with many of the ideas that his GOP colleagues in the Legislature acted on.

Not counting his budget vetoes, Scott last year vetoed 10 bills sent to him by state lawmakers, which is actually on par, or even a little bit below other governors in recent years.

Gov. Charlie Crist - who was at war with lawmakers during his independent bid for U.S. Senate in 2010 - vetoed 17 bills his final year in office (several of which were later overridden) and 18 bills in 2007. Back in 2005 then Gov. Jeb Bush a.k.a. "Veto Corleone" nixed some 36 bills sent to him by the Legislature.

It was Bush who told Scott in an email before he became governor that it was okay to veto "stupid bills."

Here then are some bills to watch Scott on in the next few days and weeks:

HB 5301: Back when Scott was campaigning against Bill McCollum in the GOP primary in 2010 he actually came out against what he called mandates being imposed on local governments. Scott told a group of business leaders in Panama City that he did not support strict limits on spending and taxes for local governments, saying at the time "I believe that what Tallahassee should be doing is dealing with Tallahassee issues." 

But sitting on his desk is a budget conforming bill that contains a contentious provision that withholds money from counties in an effort to collect $325 million in contested past-due Medicaid billings. County governments have argued this is yet another mandate, an argument that should have some resonance with Scott.

This legislation, however, includes several other changes, including a limit on how many times Medicaid will pay for hospital emergency room visits for non-pregnant adults and a provision that would allow the children of state employees to be enrolled in the state's subsidized KidCare program. Scott must act on this bill this week but there are signs that he will let it become law because it is tied to the state budget. (UPDATE: Scott signed the bill, although in a letter the governor tried to assuage counties that the state would "work diligently" to make sure that all the billings are valid and accurate. Counties, meanwhile, sharply criticized the decision as a "body blow" to taxpayers.)

HB 7129: This is the tuition bill for the University of Florida and Florida State University. If it becomes law the legislation would allow these two research universities to raise tuition annually above the existing 15 percent cap that now exists in state law. The logic behind the bill - which was a top priority for House Speaker Dean Cannon - is to give UF and FSU the financial resources to make themselves more nationally competitive. But the bill also clashes with Scott's oft-repeated line that tuition should not go up this year and that universities ought to give him more examples of spending existing money wisely before hiking tuition. (UPDATE: Scott vetoed this legislation saying it would increase the debt burden of students.

SB 1994: The Florida Polytechnic University bill. This is the legislation pushed by Sen. J.D. Alexander that would officially divorce the Lakeland branch campus of the University of South Florida and turn into the state's 12th public university. Scott so far has refused to take a stance on the creation of a new school, but has expressed skepticism about it. The problem for Scott, however, is if vetoes the bill then he wipes out $16 million in funding, including $6 million for the USF College of Pharmacy and $10 million to allow current USF Polytechnic students to complete their degrees at USF. (UPDATE: In a bit of surprise, Scott signed this legislation into law.)

HB 7117: This is an energy bill that was championed by Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam. But the legislation - which includes $16 million in renewable energy tax credits - has come under fire by several different groups, including conservative organizations as well as the Florida Renewable Energy Producers Association. Scott during his first two years in office has continued to be skeptical about energy issues, although his main objection has centered around proposals that would raise utility bills in order to pay for renewable energy. (UPDATE: Scott signed this law although he expressed concerned about some of the provisions.)

HB 5011: State Information Technology. For most people outside of Tallahassee, this bill means little. But it's a big deal for the lobbyists and others who make a living off the millions spent by the state on technology. This bill blows up an existing state agency - the Agency for Enterprise Information Technology - and creates a new agency called the Agency for State Technology which reports to the governor and Cabinet. For those who aren't keeping count this would be the third reconfiguration of how the state handles technology issues in the last decade. The legislation also halts and repeals an already begun process to consolidate the state's email service. Rep. Denise Grimsley, the House budget chief, defended the move to get rid of the email consolidation, contending it would wind up costing the state more than anticipated. But it's worth pointing out that Scott himself early on wondered aloud why state government had multiple email accounts as opposed to the way that most businesses handle it. (UPDATE: Scott vetoed the bill.)

HB 945: Broadband Internet Service. This is another bill that not a lot of people kept an eye on. It transfers a federal stimulus-backed program from one state agency to another. But the legislation was pushed into law at the urging of lobbyists who work for a vendor that held a state contract that was not renewed. The Associated Press already reported that the legislative proposal was so closely aligned with the lobbying firm of former Republican Party of Florida chairman Al Cardenas that the Senate bill sponsor referred questions about the bill to a lobbyist working for Cardenas. That same AP story pointed out that the state agency now in control of the program has warned internally that the transfer will require federal approval and could put millions in federal grants in jeopardy. (UPDATE: This bill was signed by the governor.)

HB 937: Legal notices. Just consider this one a bit of a hunch. Scott of course famously shunned newspaper editorial boards during his 2010 campaign for governor. But since that time he has actually taken a keen interest in the news industry, including recent business moves in Florida such as the decision by Halifax Media to acquire papers owned by the New York Times Company. This legislation is aimed at ending a few years of battle over the future of legal notices. The bill requires the online listing of legal notices for no extra charge, but also keeps them in printed newspapers. In previous years legislators had tried to end the use of printed legal notices completely. The final product is supported by the Florida Press Association so it will be interesting to see how the governor responds.

One small part of Rick Scott's legacy as governor

It didn't get a lot of ink last Friday.

But along with a school voucher bill and a school prayer bill Gov. Rick Scott also signed into law a piece of legislation that will likely become a small part of his legacy as governor.

Scott quietly signed HB 1305, the bill that arose out of last summer's disclosure that Scott's transition team had somehow lost emails that covered the period between Scott's election and the time he was sworn into office.

The bill now mandates that that the governor - as well as the three Cabinet members - must preserve and make public any documents or emails they create or send after Election Day but before they are sworn into office. Scott was a strong supporter of the legislation.

Scott's own transition period back in late 2010 was a time of tremendous activity because the governor's top advisers started their recruitment of top agency positions and began assembling the initial parts of the governor's agenda.

The emails and documents that have been been made available show everything from the fact that themes in the governor's inaugural speech was poll-tested to the fact that some people sought out by the Scott administration turned down job offers. Those same documents show that inklings of ideas never enacted - including a proposal to put together a website that would list how business friendly some local communities were.

But last August it was first reported by The St. Petersburg Times that some emails were apparently missing. Scott's transition team members had tried to find the emails in the wake of public records requests, but they were unable to guarantee that all of them were available.

The Associated Press reported that one batch of emails that did surface late last summer showed that "former Gov. Jeb Bush offered that state's incoming governor a long list of "lessons learned through trial and error" that touched on everything from how to deal with those guarding his safety to telling him it was OK to veto stupid bills." Bush had also urged Scott to push for universal private school vouchers, to eliminate state money for some university programs and save money by releasing elderly prisoners.

Another set of Bush emails that was discovered months after the transition revealed that the former governor disagreed with a decision by the incoming Scott administration to fire the mother of an Army soldier who had just been killed in Afghanistan as well as others who worked in the governor’s office.

Amid the flap over the lost emails, Scott ordered an investigation by the Florida Department of Law Enforcement into why the emails were lost and whether any were retrievable. Nearly eight months later that investigation has still not been wrapped up.

While the investigation has not been concluded, some information about what happened has emerged, including that emails from both an iPad and smartphone used by the governor were lost.

Transition records are generally understood to be public records, but a review of transition records by The Associated Press "showed a wide disparity in how the records – including emails – by both the governor’s office and the offices of top Cabinet officials are collected and stored. Some records are turned over to state archives, but others for example, have wound up in the basement of Capitol offices."

That review also showed that while the Scott transition team used a private company to handle its email former Gov. Charlie Crist’s transition team used state computers to handle its email accounts. But it also appeared some members of the Crist team were never asked to turn over any emails from their personal email accounts.

The new measure that Scott signed into law states that in the future statewide elected officials must keep their emails - and turn them over when they are sworn into office.

5 biggest questions of 2012 session answered

There's one week to go and most signs (absent some meltdown ala the 2011 session) are that Florida lawmakers will have everything wrapped up by March 9.

Now if legislators fail to approve a bill on auto insurance there remains a possibility that Gov. Rick Scott could call them back into special session to handle that. Scott himself this past week downplayed any talk of special session, but changing personal injury protection auto insurance was on Scott's to-do list heading into session. PIP of course remains one of the most highly lobbied issues of the entire session and there remains the possibility that it could all fall apart in the next few days.

But even with that it is still possible to answer the 5 biggest questions that I had entering into the session:

Will redistricting keep moving smoothly and quickly? For the most part yes. The maps are done and now it's up to the courts to decide what the next move will be. Many observers speculate that the Florida Senate map will be kicked back but even if that happens it will be taken care of during a subsequent special session.

Does the casino bill really have a chance of passing? No, no and no. At the start of the session the mega-casino bill sponsored by Sen. Ellyn Bogdanoff and Rep. Eric Fresen consumed a fair amount of oxygen in the legislative process. But while it got through one committee in the Senate it floundered in the House (which is sort of what everyone expected.)

The next question is what happens next.

The casino idea is not going away, but at this point it's a matter of what form it takes next. Right now the buzz is there could be a push for a constitutional amendment in 2014.

Right after the House torpedoed the bill Bogdanoff said she had no desire to sponsor the bill next year. She said she had doubts that the legislation would get much further in 2013 than it did this year. Given that scenario then a constitutional amendment drive makes sense.

What does Dean Cannon really want? I'm not sure we really know. But if you were to guess it might have been the higher education bills including the one that will allow both University of Florida (Cannon's alma mater) and Florida State University to have wide latitude over setting tuition. Cannon in his speech on opening day warned that Florida's higher education system was "racing toward mediocrity" and he charged lawmakers to consider reforms.

The House has responded with the tuition bill - and a second bill - that not only change the finances of college but also change what it takes for college students to graduate. More on that here.

How serious is Gov. Rick Scott's budget veto threat? It must have been very serious. Scott said he wanted a "significant" increase in funding for education and wanted at least $1 billion more to go to public schools. Without too much grousing House and Senate leaders quickly complied with his request. It may not be enough to appease critics who point out that the increase doesn't match last year's cuts.

But Republican legislators have guaranteed that Scott will likely end his second session with a fairly good track record (and give themselves some cover heading into election season).

If lawmakers enact PIP reform then Scott will have gotten just about everything he asked for in his State of the State speech. His main defeat this session was his push to revamp the funding formula for hospitals. That proposal never really gained traction in either the House and Senate.

What issue not on everyone's radar screen now will blow up? Take your pick on this one. The knockdown battle over prison privatization that led to a defeat for a sitting Senate president. The behind-the-scenes skulduggery in the fight to become Senate president two years and four years from now. Or of course Sen. J.D. Alexander's push to create a stand-alone 12th university in Lakeland and his tug-of-war with Tampa Bay legislators over funding for the University of South Florida.

 

 

Halftime of the 2012 session: Bills are dying

House Speaker Dean Cannon warned prior to the 2012 session that there was "limited bandwidth" to take up a lot of contentious issues during this critical election year.

If there's any observation to be made at the halfway point, Cannon wasn't kidding.

Cannon made his comment to emphasize that his focus was largely on the once-a-decade chore of redistricting and the annual job of passing a new state budget.

In reality, what that has meant is that in the usually-much more disciplined House there hasn't been a lot of direction from leadership about lots of other bills. (The clear exception appears to be bills that are a top priority of Gov. Rick Scott.)

But that has meant it's been a much more wide open process in the House - and it has resulted in many bills and proposals quickly falling to the wayside.

The Senate, which is always trickier to figure out, has been equally difficult to predict this year.

In that chamber you have the power shifting from Senate President Mike Haridopolos to incoming Senate President Don Gaetz, an ongoing leadership battle between potential future Senate presidents Sen. Jack Latvala and Sen. Andy Gardiner, and the tug-of-war over prison privatization that led Haridopolos to dump Sen. Mike Fasano as a committee chairman.

In short, if you believe the chit-chat of some lobbyists - and some House members - no one is really sure who's in charge over in the Senate.

Whatever the reasons the result is this: Regardless of party affiliation bills have had a rough time and have been shot down.

The Florida Legislature hit its halfway point this week and its worth noting the major pieces of legislation that appear dead - or close to dead:

Legislation to bring mega-casinos to Florida

A bill sought by the insurance industry to limit bad faith lawsuits

A measure pushed by the Department of Health to block doctors from prescribing drugs if they have been arrested

Any major constitutional amendments dealing with property taxes

A mandate that businesses use E-verify to check the legal status of newly-hired employees

Legislation that would subject drivers to a ticket if they are caught texting while driving

Several contentious environmental measures, including one meant to block local ordinances on fertilizer

There are a whole host of other bills whose future is very murky to predict and that includes legislation to collect sales taxes from online retailers, a bill to ban Internet cafes, and a push by the business community to lower unemployment compensation tax bills.

And to reinforce this message even further, consider this, as of Friday the total number of bills passed this session by both the House and Senate is five.

Yep, you read that right.

Out of nearly 2,000 bills and resolutions that have been filed so far this session, only five have passed both chambers.

There are 28 days left.

Some things to take away from Florida primary (other than who won)

Well if everything goes according to plan Mitt Romney will leave Florida's Jan. 31 primary with a convincing victory that could likely give him the GOP nomination for president.

But there are other things to mull over once Romney leaves and the Tuesday night speeches are finalized.

Turnout/enthusiasm. You could see the hand-writing on the wall for the 2010 elections when you look at what happened in the primary elections. Nearly 1.3 million Republicans voted in the bitter primary for governor between Bill McCollum and Rick Scott. By contrast slightly more than 917,000 Democrats voted in Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.

At the time Democratic operatives pooh-poohed the difference, contending it would all change for the fall elections and that the Democratic voter registration edge would prove the difference in the general election. Democrats of course got trounced, losing the governor's mansion, seats in Congress and spots on the Cabinet.

It doesn't matter that Alex Sink got 2.55 million votes. She still wound up losing to Scott despite Scott's background (think Columbia/HCA and the record fine for Medicare fraud after he was forced to leave the company.) Republicans did a better job of getting their voters out to the polls.

As of Monday, more than 623,000 Republicans had voted early or absentee in the primary.

Four years ago more than 1.94 million Republicans voted in a wide-open presidential primary held at roughly the same time.

There will be some attempt to say these numbers are skewed and point out that Amendment 1 (a measure to cut property taxes) was on the ballot during the same election.

But if Republicans dramatically fall short of the 1.94 million - or surpass that total - it could yield some clues about the overall intensity of the GOP base heading into the fall elections.

Yes, I realize that Republican voters will be fired up to cast a vote against President Barack Obama in November, but I have to think the Obama campaign will be look deeply into these turnout numbers to gauge how rough it may be to win Florida in November. Additionally, you can expect both parties to spin these numbers as well.

How did Romney fare in particular counties?

Some colleagues in the press have already ticked off some of the counties they are paying attention to, such as Pinellas or Miami-Dade or Duval.

Miami-Dade remains one of the most pivotal because Romney fared so badly there during the 2008 presidential primary. Miami-Dade has nearly 265,000 Hispanic Republicans - or more than half of the state's total. More than 70 percent of GOP voters in that county identify themselves as Hispanic. A big win there will prove that Romney's position on immigration did not hurt him there and may not be the wedge issue that Democrats keep hoping it will be (at least here in Florida.)

Other counties that will be worth looking at are those in Southwest Florida.

Romney won Collier and Lee counties back in January 2008, but one can argue that was before the full impact of the meltdown of the housing market left its mark there. If Romney falters in these two safe GOP counties, it could be interpreted that some of the attacks on him (and which will likely be copied by the Obama campaign) worked.

Early voting/absentee ballots

On a lesser note, it will be interesting to see how many Republicans voted absentee and voted early versus showing up on primary day given the aversion that some GOP legislators have to early voting.

If primary day voting is slow, you can expect an uptick in complaints about early voting. Some legislators such as Sen. Ellyn Bogdanoff have long complained that early voting hurts the process, especially what she calls "grassroots" candidates who do not have the resources to match a more-established, well-funded candidate.

Rick Scott's incomplete grade

Gov. Rick Scott - who has billed himself as Florida's jobs governor - says repeatedly that he receives a new grade every month when Florida's unemployment rates are released.

But maybe the grade Scott should get in his first year in office is an incomplete.

Why?

Because it turns out that the numbers that Scott relies on are nothing more than preliminary estimates based on a survey of 2,500 households.

Additionally, it is likely that the numbers will be changed in March.

Here's the full story on the benchmarking and process changes that could mean that the 2.1 percentage drop that Scott has praised may be inaccurate.

As the story points out economists and others who follow unemployment data know that the numbers are subject to revision.

Some of these changes are small, yet other revisions are quite substantial. For example, the reported unemployment rate in March 2010 was 12.3 percent. In March 2011 that rate was substantially changed and lowered to 11.3 percent.

Because of the change the December 2010 unemployment rate of 12 percent is now listed as the highest on record. (State unemployment rates date back to the '70s.)

Here's a look at how much the numbers changed the last two years from what they were initially reported.

Florida Unemployment Rates (seasonally adjusted)
Before Benchmark Compared to After Benchmark January 2009 to December 2010
	Unemployment Rates
Month/Year	Before Benchmark	After Benchmark (current)
Jan-09	8.7	8.5
Feb-09	9.2	9.0
Mar-09	9.6	9.4
Apr-09	9.9	9.7
May-09	10.2	10.0
Jun-09	10.5	10.2
Jul-09	10.8	10.5
Aug-09	11.0	10.6
Sep-09	11.2	10.8
Oct-09	11.4	10.9
Nov-09	11.6	11.1
Dec-09	11.7	11.2
Jan-10	12.0	11.3
Feb-10	12.2	11.3
Mar-10	12.3	11.3
Apr-10	12.0	11.3
May-10	11.7	11.3
Jun-10	11.4	11.4
Jul-10	11.5	11.5
Aug-10	11.8	11.6
Sep-10	11.9	11.7
Oct-10	11.9	11.8
Nov-10	12.0	11.9
Dec-10	12.0	12.0
Source:  Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program, in
cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

When you look at the numbers, you realize that Scott's reliance on them may be a bit premature.

And these changes have nothing to do with the debate of actual workers vs. discouraged workers. For example, Florida's 9.9 percent unemployment rate is actually 10.8 percent if you include discouraged workers into the equation.

Now it is worth noting that a separate figure highlighted by Scott - the actual growth in the number of jobs - is derived from a separate survey of businesses. State economists say that between 10,000 to 15,000 businesses are questioned to get an idea on whether jobs are being added or lost.

While economists know these numbers are subject to change, they have gained a political currency in the last few years.

Former Gov. Charlie Crist, for example, praised a reported drop in unemployment that occurred in April, May and June of 2010. The new data shows that the drop never happened and in fact the unemployment rate remained flat in the spring of 2010 before climbing back up.

This allows Scott to say - as he has a couple of times now - that jobs were lost for "four straight years" until he came into office.

The question now is whether the revised numbers for 2011 will be as good as Scott has advertised them.

 

 

 

 

5 biggest questions of the 2012 session

Florida's GOP-controlled Legislature kicks off its annual session on Tuesday amid the backdrop of the looming Jan. 31 presidential primary, a governor still battling low poll numbers, and legislative leaders who so far have shown a desire to keep the agenda limited during a critical election year.

The two main jobs are redistricting and passing a budget, but even that's not guaranteed at this point.

Senate President Mike Haridopolos has talked about waiting until later in the year to pass a budget. And while there appears to be a push to pass redistricting plans quickly there remains a chance that legal challenges to the final product could force legislators into a special session at some later date to adopt different maps.

Here at this point are the 5 biggest questions of the session:

Will redistricting keep moving smoothly and quickly? In anticipation of potential legal challenges, the GOP-controlled Legislature has already begun to accelerate to a possible final vote on changes for both Congressional and legislative districts. The Senate is poised to vote out its maps within the first few days of the annual session.

So far the political rancor has been fairly minimal although that could change quickly. Some South Florida Republicans have already been complaining about the treatment of U.S. Rep. Allen West due to a proposed shift that could make his seat more competitive. The question is whether state legislators will heed the complaints and push onward - or will they engage in more tinkering which could spark even more infighting.

There hasn't been a loud chorus of threats of lawsuits or recriminations yet. But it's hard to believe that debate and arguments over redistricting won't heat up and bog down the process at some point.

Does the casino bill really have a chance of passing? There's no doubt that one of the more enticing storylines of the 2012 session is the fate of the mega-casino bill sponsored by Sen. Ellyn Bogdanoff and Rep. Eric Fresen.

In the last few weeks, the list of proponents and opponents has been growing (although Gov. Rick Scott has deliberately chosen to remain rather quiet about whether he would sign the bill).

After a series of workshops, Bogdanoff late last week filed a massive rewrite of the bill intended to try to win over critics and votes. The measure now includes a voter referendum option, including giving voters in local counties the option of deciding whether or not to let local dog and horse tracks add slot machines.

Usually high-profile legislative fights pitting deep-pocketed groups against each other result in nothing getting passed. One of the main axioms of the Florida Legislature is that it's 10 times easier to kill a bill than to pass a bill.

Right now many Capitol observers are anxious to see if the bill can actually make it out of its first committee and then actually get passed by the full Senate. The fact that the Florida House has shown no signs of seriously considering the bill has fed speculation that the legislation is doomed for this year.

Of course, sometimes major initiatives take more than one year (and when leadership changes). So part of the battle for this year may be just demonstrating to doubters that a fair number of legislators are willing to support the bill this time around. That could set the stage for its return in 2013.

What does Dean Cannon really want? The session is starting with a bit of uncertainty because Cannon has been reticent to discuss what he would like to see happen during his last session as House Speaker.

Cannon last year waited until the eve of session to let everyone know he wanted to pursue far-reaching changes to the judicial branch, including a proposal to break up the state Supreme Court into two separate branches. (In the end Cannon got a watered-down constitutional amendment that makes some changes but none as dramatic as he initially proposed.)

Heading into this session Cannon has basically insisted his main priorities are the budget and redistricting, or the two things that the state constitution requires the Legislature to do this year.

That gives Senate Republicans less leverage to use against Cannon in trying to get some of their priorities passed and makes it harder for dealmaking to occur. (And it's worth noting that Rep. Will Weatherford, R-Wesley Chapel and the incoming House Speaker has sponsored zero bills so far this year as well. So there's limited leverage against him as well.)

How serious is Gov. Rick Scott's budget veto threat? Last month Scott did a turnabout on school funding. In less than one year he has gone from advocating a 10 percent cut in funding for schools to pushing a $1 billion increase and threatening to veto the entire budget unless there is a "significant" increase.

Initially Scott would not say what a "significant" increase is. But in later interviews, he said he likes $1 billion.

Scott has said his push for more school funding came after spending months listening to Florida voters who have told him education is a top priority. It may have also something to do with that fact that some in Scott's inner circle think that education cuts may have contributed a big part to his lagging poll numbers. Some public polls have backed this up, pointing out that some of other Scott's initiatives, including drug testing welfare recipients is popular.

The governor, however, relied on deep budget cuts in hospitals and health care spending in order to free up the money needed to increase funding for schools while also filling a nearly $2 billion budget gap. Such deep cuts may prove to be a hard sell to GOP legislators who are getting lobbied heavily by hospital officials who warn that the cuts will lead to layoffs.

So legislators must decide to either find other cuts to meet Scott's school funding goals - or they must pare back the increase sought by the governor to something more manageable. A much less likely scenario is that legislative leaders could shrug off Scott's threat since Republicans hold a supermajority in both the House and Senate and override a veto.

One other solution, of course, is to hope for extra revenue. And that's one advantage of potentially waiting for voting on a budget. If the economy continues to slowly recover, there's a chance that it will be easier to meet Scott's goal and avoid a confrontation.

What issue not on everyone's radar screen now will blow up? This is a reoccuring question because nearly every year there is a legislative initiative that seemingly comes out of nowhere and dominates debate and headlines in the final days of the session.

Part of it is due to the fact that the rules allow legislators to change bills at a moment's notice. Past examples include controversial bills dealing with abortion and elections. There are also some bills lurking out there that could quickly dominate part of this year's narrative. Drug-testing for state employees and another stab at mandating E-Verify for employers are just two such measures.

With so much attention concentrated on redistricting, it's easy to imagine a scenario where attention quickly shifts to something else if redistricting passes as easily as legislative leaders expect. 

It seems that each session of the Florida Legislature is like a hurricane, with its path and intensity quite unlike the storm that preceded it.

 

 

 

Romney's Florida math

GOP presidential hopeful Mitt Romney touched down in Florida on Tuesday, making public appearances in both Tampa and Miami.

Romney got plenty of news coverage for his visit - and also picked up the endorsements of three well-known Cuban Americans who backed U.S. Sen. John McCain back in 2008.

The decision of his campaign to campaign in Central Florida and South Florida is likely a reflection of the math that led to Romney's defeat four years ago.

Romney lost the Florida primary to McCain by nearly 97,000 votes.

But the former Massachusetts governor's loss was not across the board.

Instead McCain and Romney found victory and defeat by how they fared in different parts of the state that each have their own unique sense of geopolitics.

Romney actually bested McCain in 17 counties. He had his strongest performances in Northeast Florida and in Southwest Florida. Romney won Duval County by more than 13,000 votes.

So why did Romney lose?

Because he lost to McCain in the Tampa Bay area and because he fared miserably in South Florida.

McCain took both Hillsborough and Pinellas counties by decent margins, but he really racked up a lead down south.

McCain did better than Romney in Broward County by more than 17,000 votes. McCain won Palm Beach County by more than 10,000 votes and had a 52,000 vote-plus edge over Romney in Miami-Dade.

In Miami-Dade Romney actually came in third trailing both McCain and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Of course a lot of the buzz four years ago was that the late endorsement by Gov. Charlie Crist may have given McCain the momentum he needed to push past Romney.

This is a new day and a new election and Romney's focus on the economy and jobs should resonate in a state with more than 900,000 people out of work. (The unemployment rate in Florida back during the 2008 primary was 4.6 percent.)

But one has to wonder what kind of impact that Romney's hard-line stance on immigration will have in South Florida even with the recent endorsements of well-known politicians such as Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Mario Diaz-Balart.

If former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich remains a contender, it will be interesting how Gingrich's more nuanced stance on immigration will play in Miami-Dade. Current voter stats show that 9.1 percent of all registered Republicans in Florida live in Miami-Dade.

There is a school of thought that one reason that Bill McCollum lost to Rick Scott in last year's GOP primary for governor is because McCollum suddenly took a hard-line stance on immigration in response to Scott's television ad barrage that made McCollum appear soft on the issue. The thinking is that this left Hispanic Republicans lukewarm when it came to both candidates. Scott was also able to accuse McCollum of being a flip-flopper.

What is indisputable is that Scott squeaked out a 36,000 vote victory in a primary that saw both Broward and Miami-Dade have low turnout margins compared to the rest of the state.

Broward turnout in the GOP primary for governor didn't even top 15 percent, while Miami-Dade turnout was 17.9 percent. McCollum won both counties, but not with the kinds of margins to help him offset his loss in places such as Scott's home county of Collier or in Duval County.

Is a presidential preference primary and a governor's primary the same thing? Absolutely not.

But it's hard not to wonder if some of the new advisers for Texas Gov. Rick Perry (including the team which helped engineer Scott's victory) have looked at the math and concluded that Romney remains vulnerable in Florida. (Especially if Perry is able to hold onto his money and use it for television ads during the home stretch before the Jan. 31 primary.)

Romney's path to the nomination will be a lot easier if he cruises to easy victories in states such as New Hampshire and Florida.

But if Romney loses again then Florida could be the precursor to a much longer and drawn-out nomination fight.