A U.S Senate campaign may be tougher for Charlie Crist than some realize

Amid the meltdown of the 2009 session of the Florida Legislature, one theme that has resurfaced again and again is that Gov. Charlie Crist is not engaged and is already looking ahead to his next election - and his next job in the U.S. Senate.

Crist has not made his intentions publicly known yet - although the Capitol building is rife with speculation that it is a foregone conclusion that the governor will leave the governor's mansion in 2010. Some Republicans chafe at this suggestion, while other Republican legislators assume that Crist is in fact leaving.

But what may have gotten lost in translation is that a Crist bid for U.S. Senate should not be seen as automatic. There's no doubt he would become the instant front-runner but a Senate campaign would in fact be a bigger risk for Crist than running for re-election.

Consider some of these numbers:

* 7 as in 7 percent. That's how how much Crist beat Jim Davis by in the 2006 governor's race. While this is a decent margin, it's important to remember that Crist outraised Davis 3 to 1 in campaign contributions and had additional resources poured into the race by the Republican Party of Florida. Crist's fundraising machine will not have the same advantages in a U.S. Senate race because of federal restrictions on raising corporate dollars.

* 60 as in the magic number needed for firm Democratic control of the U.S. Senate. Would the Democratic National Committee be tempted to pour in millions into Florida in order to help President Barack Obama?

* 4.2 million vs. 2.5 million. That's how many more votes that Obama got in 2008 versus the number Crist received two years previously. Of course, there is always a higher turnout in a presidential election year. But what happens if the Democratic voting base is energized at the prospect of electing Florida's first black U.S. Senator - if Kendrick Meek gets the nomination - and the Republican conservative voting base is disenchanted with Crist. (Over the stimulus, over felons voting rights, over insurance, take your pick.)

* 82,663. That's the number that Mel Martinez won his 2004 U.S. Senate race by. Martinez squeaked out that victory in a year that saw the Republicans run a stellar campaign in Florida to get President George Bush re-elected. Crist won't have the same advantage.

This doesn't mean that Crist can't win. He obviously continues to enjoy healthy poll numbers despite all the problems in the state. But it's worth noting that a Crist re-election campaign would go a lot smoother than shooting for a job in Washington D.C.

Comments

[DCCyclone]

I gotta disagree with Fineout on this. I'm a liberal Democrat and hope very much Crist passes on the seat, because it's his if he wants it.

Crist is hugely popular with the broader electorate, and attack ads alone cannot erode that. And the GOP electorate in Florida is not like Pennsylvania, there still are plenty of GOP primary voters willing to vote for a centrist. I remind that McCain and Giuliani combined for a majority of Presidential primary votes there. So money alone from the DNC and DSCC won't put the seat in play.

And the Dems needing a pick up for 60 seats doesn't make Florida essential because there are a half-dozen other seats that are better opportunities than an uphill campaign against Crist. Even if Dems lose, say, 2 of 3 between Dodd, Bennet, and Burris, pickups in open seats NH, MO, and OH still get Dems to 60, not to mention that PA is a likely Dem pickup with Specter unlikely to survive the primary, Bunning looks like a dead man walking, and Burr is no better than 50-50 against Roy Cooper and maybe a few other potential Dem candidates.

It may be that should Crist run, the Dems' best bet is Meek with resulting potential for outsized black turnout, but Obama's candidacy increased black vote share nationally only a couple points, from the normal 11% to 13%, and that kind of growth is the difference-maker only if the race already is a toss-up. I don't think any Dem vs. Crist can make the race a toss-up.

[Tally]

All Gary is saying is that the race is not automatic for Crist. As I've pointed out before, look at Bush 41's poll numbers after the first Gulf War. He went from that high point to losing to Bill Clinton in '92.

The other thing you need to remember is that Marco Rubio might challenge Crist for US Senate. Jeb Bush hates Crist and Rubio is his stand-in. Look what the Bush Machine did to McCollum in the senate primary in 2004. They might do the same thing to Crist in 2010. There are well-funded serious elements within the Republican Party that do not want someone like Crist as their spokesperson.

I love the fact that Charlie's going to run for US Senate. It means there will be FIVE open statewide races in 2010. WOW!! Talk about exciting times. It's possible that the Democrats could sweep.

[eve isk]

I love the fact that Charlie's going to run for US Senate. It means there will be FIVE open statewide races in 2010. WOW!! Talk about exciting times. It's possible that the Democrats could sweep.

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not to mention that PA is a likely Dem pickup with Specter unlikely to survive the primary, Bunning looks like a dead man walking, and Burr is no better than 50-50 against Roy Cooper and maybe a few other potential Dem candidates.