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    « Telling the truth to remain optional at the Legislature? | Main | The entitlement reform that Republicans aren't talking about »

    April 26, 2009

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    DCCyclone

    I gotta disagree with Fineout on this. I'm a liberal Democrat and hope very much Crist passes on the seat, because it's his if he wants it.

    Crist is hugely popular with the broader electorate, and attack ads alone cannot erode that. And the GOP electorate in Florida is not like Pennsylvania, there still are plenty of GOP primary voters willing to vote for a centrist. I remind that McCain and Giuliani combined for a majority of Presidential primary votes there. So money alone from the DNC and DSCC won't put the seat in play.

    And the Dems needing a pick up for 60 seats doesn't make Florida essential because there are a half-dozen other seats that are better opportunities than an uphill campaign against Crist. Even if Dems lose, say, 2 of 3 between Dodd, Bennet, and Burris, pickups in open seats NH, MO, and OH still get Dems to 60, not to mention that PA is a likely Dem pickup with Specter unlikely to survive the primary, Bunning looks like a dead man walking, and Burr is no better than 50-50 against Roy Cooper and maybe a few other potential Dem candidates.

    It may be that should Crist run, the Dems' best bet is Meek with resulting potential for outsized black turnout, but Obama's candidacy increased black vote share nationally only a couple points, from the normal 11% to 13%, and that kind of growth is the difference-maker only if the race already is a toss-up. I don't think any Dem vs. Crist can make the race a toss-up.

    Tally

    All Gary is saying is that the race is not automatic for Crist. As I've pointed out before, look at Bush 41's poll numbers after the first Gulf War. He went from that high point to losing to Bill Clinton in '92.

    The other thing you need to remember is that Marco Rubio might challenge Crist for US Senate. Jeb Bush hates Crist and Rubio is his stand-in. Look what the Bush Machine did to McCollum in the senate primary in 2004. They might do the same thing to Crist in 2010. There are well-funded serious elements within the Republican Party that do not want someone like Crist as their spokesperson.

    I love the fact that Charlie's going to run for US Senate. It means there will be FIVE open statewide races in 2010. WOW!! Talk about exciting times. It's possible that the Democrats could sweep.

    eve isk

    I love the fact that Charlie's going to run for US Senate. It means there will be FIVE open statewide races in 2010. WOW!! Talk about exciting times. It's possible that the Democrats could sweep.

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    not to mention that PA is a likely Dem pickup with Specter unlikely to survive the primary, Bunning looks like a dead man walking, and Burr is no better than 50-50 against Roy Cooper and maybe a few other potential Dem candidates.

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