The Fine Print

New study says GOP - not Democrats - would benefit from redistricting change

There are two constitutional amendments that could be on the 2010 ballot that may do more to shake up state government than whomever is elected to the governor's mansion.

They are so potentially threatening to the status quo that there is already talk of lawsuits, disenfranchised minority voters and fears of a Democratic takeover of the GOP-controlled government. Read all about it here at the Sarasota Herald-Tribune.

The two amendments sponsored by FairDistrictsFlorida.org would impose new standards on the Legislature when it comes to the drawing of both legislative and Congressional districts. The standards would require that districts could not be drawn to favor or disfavor an incumbent or a member of a political party and be compact if possible. While the group says it is bipartisan - and includes Republicans such as Thom Rumberger and Bob Milligan - some GOP operatives remain skeptical about the effort because it is getting bankrolled by a lot of groups with ties to Democrats.

Right now Democrats hold an edge in overall voter registration. But Republicans control the Florida Senate by a 26-14 margin and the House by a 76-44 split. Republicans will presumably be in control in 2012 when redistricting will take center stage again, but there are those who insist the new amendments would push the entire process into the courts and give Democrats an opening.

But here's an interesting twist: As part of the reporting of this story, I talked to Professor Jowei Chen of the University of Michigan. Chen and Professor Jonathan Rodden at Stanford University did a study that comes up with a fascinating premise.

The two professors concluded that Republicans would win 59 percent of the seats without any intentional gerrymandering.

In other words, Chen and Rodden conclude that Democrats are concentrated in urban areas, while suburban and rural districts tend to be "moderately Republican." The paper states that "the seemingly apolitical practice of requiring compact, contiguous districts will produce systematic pro-Republican bias."

Chen said they relied on the 2000 election because it is in essence a "tied" election. 

The paper then states "Our simulations indicate that as long as Florida is divided into any reasonable number of districts, Republicans will hold an electoral majority in 58-61 % of these districts. Furthermore, we show that as Florida is hypothetically divided into larger numbers of smaller districts, the size of this bias decreases. But in order for the pro-Republican electoral bias to disappear, Florida would be need to be divided into an impracticably large number of legislative districts."

Additionally "The relationship uncovered in our simulations is clearly reflected in observed electoral bias in Florida. Analysis of data from actual district-level election returns in both chambers of the Florida Legislature as well as the Florida delegation to the U.S. Congress indicates that Republicans can indeed expect at least a ten percent seat advantage with 50 percent of the vote. In short, a substantial share of Florida's observed electoral bias can be accounted for without any intentional manipulation on the part of mischievous Republican cartographers."

Another round in the Attorney General slugfest

Former Agency for Health Care Administration Secretary Holly Benson is obviously determined to make the GOP primary for Attorney General a real slugfest judging by the Tallahassee heavyweights who are hosting a fundraiser for Benson on Dec. 9.

Among those listed on the invitation are Brian Ballard, Paul and Sally Bradshaw, Jim Magill, Mark Kaplan, and Mike Harrell.The inclusion of Ballard is significant since Ballard is a top fundraiser of Gov. Charlie Crist. Ballard is siding with Benson despite the fact that Lt. Gov. Jeff Kottkamp jumped into this race months ago.

Having four current and former legislators in this race - as pointed out here and here- makes it easy to compare their records. Consider this Part II of an ongoing examination of the positions of the quartet - Benson, Kottkamp, Dan Gelber and Dave Aronberg - on important bills that all they voted on as well as bills that had legal and constitutional questions or show a divergence in their positions.

Terri Schiavo I: The GOP-controlled Legislature during a 2003 special session passed a highly controversial piece of legislation that let then Gov. Jeb Bush order that Schiavo's feeding tube be kept in place despite judicial rulings allowing it to be removed.The law was later struck down unanimously by the state Supreme Court including Bush's own appointees. Kottkamp-Yes. Gelber-No. Aronberg-No. Rep. Benson was one of 28 House members who missed the first vote, but voted yes when the bill came back a second time.

Terri Schiavo II: This bill was taken up during the 2005 regular session and was drawn more broadly than the first. It would have prevented the withholding or withdrawal of food or water to a person in a persistent vegetative state unless they had expressly directed the withholding of food and water. The legislation was never passed because it died in the Florida Senate. (Among those voting no was Sen. Paula Dockery, who is now running for governor on the GOP side. Dockery voted no on the first bill too.)  Kottkamp and Benson - Yes. Gelber and Aronberg-No.

Stand Your Ground: This measure was a top priority in 2005 by the National Rifle Association. It changed Florida law so that someone was no longer required to retreat before they could use deadly force to protect themselves even if they were outside their homes. It also expanded the definition of "castle" - a place where a person is not bound to retreat - to include cars.

This standard has come to play in criminal cases since then, such as the August 2009 ruling that upheld the release of a Tallahassee man who shot and killed another man in a car outside a nightclub. Jimmy Hair and Charles Harper were fighting inside a car when Hair says he got his gun and tried to use it as a club, but the gun went off and killed the other man. The court said the "physical evidence" was clear that the man was shot inside the car and the law makes no exception from immunity when the victim is in retreat "at the time defensive force is employed."

Benson, Kottkamp and Aronberg voted yes. Gelber voted no.

Alimony: This was a contentious bill from 2005 that changed the circumstances in which a court could reduce or terminate alimony payments. The "shacking up" bill was aimed at cases where a spouse moves in with someone but doesn't marry them. But some complained that the legislation went too far and would hurt women. Benson and Gelber voted no. Kottkamp and Aronberg voted yes.

60 percent amendment: This joint resolution placed on the ballot a requirement that all future constitutional amendments need to be approved by 60 percent of the voters in order to pass. Kottkamp, who was a cosponsor of the measure, voted yes, as did Benson and Aronberg. Gelber voted no.

Instant bingo: This 2004 bill authorized the use of instant bingo tickets, essentially allowing organizations that conduct bingo to sell pull-tab tickets instead of requiring people to play bingo the old-fashioned way. Gov. Bush vetoed the legislation, saying it expanded gambling and may have violated the constitutional provision that limits lottery games to the state. Benson was one of just 11 Republicans to vote against the bill. Gelber, Kottkamp and Aronberg voted yes.

Better than recession proof? Lobbying income could top last year

Lobbyists in Tallahassee still don't appear to be all that affected by the Great Recession.

The latest batch of lobbying compensation reports due last weekend show that the amount of money paid to lobby the Florida Legislature is actually on pace to beat the 2008 totals.

The aggregated income total for 2008 - which is not an exact number (more on that later ) - was $116.4 million. The latest numbers for the first nine months of the year show that lobbyists have been paid $90.18 million so far. That's about $605,000 more than was paid to legislative lobbyists during the first three quarters of 2008.

Now that doesn't mean the numbers for individual firms haven't changed somewhat. The GrayRobinson law firm, for example, fell out of the exclusive Million Dollar club during the third quarter of this year and instead reported making somewhere between $500,000 and $900,000 during the period. Ron Book, Southern Strategy, and Smith & Ballard reported income of $1 million or more for the quarter.

All of this of course comes with a big caveat in how the numbers were generated. Lobbyists don't have to report exact amounts for how much each client paid them. Instead they report a range of payments. The aggregated total takes the midpoint of each range, with the exception of any payments $50,000 or higher. Lobbyists have to report the exact amount if it exceeds $49,999.

The totals reported above also do not include executive branch lobbying income. Depending on how you count it that could add as much as another $30 million to $90 million to the total. But past experience has shown that some firms double-report their income since they are paid one lump sum to lobby both the Legislature and executive branch.

Sansom case could wind up before the Supreme Court

One potential bit of fallout from the ongoing legal case involving ousted House Speaker Ray Sansom is that it could actually have an impact on Florida's existing anti-corruption laws and it could easily wind up before the state Supreme Court.

That's because there are now conflicting rulings regarding a key part of the law that Sansom was charged under - which incidentally was part of an anti-corruption bill that was an outgrowth of the 1999 task force put together by then-Gov. Jeb Bush.

Sansom was charged with official misconduct and perjury for his role in securing $6 million in the state budget for Northwest Florida State College. A grand jury found that the money was intended for an airplane hangar to benefit a developer and donor.

Circuit Judge Terry Lewis in October ruled that the statute used to charge Sansom with official misconduct was "unconstitutional as applied to the undisputed material facts of the case" and dismissed that charge against Sansom. State Attorney Willie Meggs has appealed the decision. That doesn't mean Lewis thinks the law goes too far, he just disagrees with how they law was used by state prosecutors.

In his ruling Lewis says that the budget cannot be made "false" by fraud, trickery or misrepresentation of individual legislators. Lewis also stated that the application of the law by prosecutors would make it overly broad, which was part of the reason courts had stricken portions of the law in the past.

But the Fourth District Court of Appeal - when it upheld official misconduct convictions on Sept. 30 against a Hollywood city commissioner - ruled that in that case the state only had to prove that the commissioner "misrepresented the underlying facts" included on voting conflict forms he filed.

This sets the stage then for rival interpretations of the official misconduct law eventually heading to the Supreme Court. It also means that this could throw a curveball on plans by Gov. Charlie Crist and Florida lawmakers to get serious about taking additional steps to battle corruption anytime soon.

Crist asked a statewide grand jury to look into corruption but his request has yet to be granted by the state's high court. But an ongoing court battle over how to interpret current anti-corruption laws could prompt state lawmakers - who were reluctant to adopt the 2003 bill - to delay until the high court acts.

"Historically the Legislature has been reluctant to mess with a law when there's a pending case,'' noted Mark Herron, the veteran Tallahassee attorney who handles election and ethics law cases.

Here's one reason Jim Greer probably isn't going anywhere

Embattled Republican Party of Florida Chairman Jim Greer is expected to meet face to face with members of the party executive board next Thursday in Orlando. Several top party leaders requested the "emergency" meetingin the wake of a string of events including the now-infamous Twittergate scandal where Greer fired a party staffer who created a fake Twitter account as part of an effort to disparage a county party leader.

But it may be important to remember one thing: There's not much anyone can do even if they wanted to get rid of Greer.

State law acknowledges that political party offices can be deemed vacant by the removal of the person in the job. But the RPOF constitution and rules of procedure - which by law have to be submitted to the Department of State - appear to be completely absent of any way to change the party chairman. Instead it just says that the chairman serves a 2-year term and that the chairman is selected at the organizational meeting held biennially.

The rules do state that in the event of death, disability or resignation that the vice chairman of the party shall temporarily assume the duties of the chairman until an election can occur to name a succssor. Article IV, Section 2 (B) says that the election "shall be held within 60 days" of the vacancy.

There has been some buzz that since that RPOF constitution says that Roberts Rules of Order shall govern proceedings that maybe someone could use it to move for Greer's removal. But the constitution states that Roberts will be followed as long as the rules "are not inconsistent with this Constitution."

Of course nothing prevents from Greer from stepping down on his own - but so far Greer has made it clear that he intends to serve out his term.

GOP leaders demand emergency closed door session with RPOF chairman

Concerned Republicans say they aren’t out for the head of Florida GOP Party Chairman Jim Greer.

But they do want to talk to him. Behind closed doors.

Responding to an embarrassing string of controversies involving the Florida Republican Party, top officials, including the overall state vice chairman and 20 leaders from counties across the state, sent a letter this week demanding an “emergency” meeting with Greer.

Greer, the state GOP chairman since 2007 and an ally of Gov. Charlie Crist, has been accused of everything from playing favorites, turning his back to dirty tricks by party operatives and failing to properly supervise the use of party credit cards. While some have characterized Greer’s critics as a small minority, the call for the meeting shows that recent incidents are beginning to worry party leaders.

“While many factors may be involved in the various circumstances, our members and the public are receiving continuing negative reports about issues involving financing, candidates, political activities and more,” states the letter signed by Vice Chairman Allen Cox and others. “This has been, and continues to be, extremely damaging to our party, our candidates and our members.”

More here.

Greer says he will hold the meeting with the party executive board so that he can share with them facts about several things include the Twittergate scandal and contributions the party has received from Scott Rothstein. He said he the meeting will help the party unify as it moves into the 2010 elections.

The text of the letter reads:

Jim:

We have observed in recent weeks an unprecedented series of reports and events in the media which cast negative perceptions of the Republican Party, both to the public and to our members. While many factors may be involved in the various circumstances, our members and the public are receiving continuing negative reports about issues involving financing, candidates, political activities and more, concerning the Republican Party. This has been, and continues to be, extremely damaging to our Party, our candidates and our members.

As Vice Chairman, along with the Executive Board members listed below, we urge you to convene a special emergency closed meeting of the Executive Board as expeditiously as possible. We believe such a closed session, as was held during our retreat last summer, is needed immediately. The significance of the current events are such that it should not be the focus in an open Executive Board meeting, and cannot be deferred until the December scheduled meeting.

Please convene the Executive Board to meet in Orlando, as a central location, within the coming two weeks, if at all possible. The need for information, communication and action by our Executive Board is urgent.

Allen Cox,

Vice Chairman, RPOF

Peter Feaman, Esq.

Chairman, Caucus of State Committeemen and Committeewomen

Bob Starr

Chairman, Caucus of County Chairmen

Clyde Simpson, Chairman CD 2

Bob Reid, Chairman CD 3

Thomas Hogan, Chairman CD 5

Jerry Braley, CD 8

Chairman, Audit Committee

Bill Bunting, CD 9

Tony DiMatteo, CD 10

A.J. Matthews, Chairman CD 11

Robert Norman, Charman CD 12

Kathleen King, Chairman CD 13

Gary Lee, Chairman CD 14

Chuck Oates, Chairman CD 16

Debbie Goodman, Chairman CD 18

Ed Kennedy, Chairman CD 20

Illeana Ross, Chairman CD 21

Fran Hancock, CD 22

Sid Dinerstein, CD 23

David Rivera, CD 25

Sink returns money 5 days after being asked about it

Last week it was pointed out that the campaign of Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink had accepted $4,500 from a series of limited liability companies that had clear ties to embattled attorney Scott Rothstein. Corporate paperwork filed with the Department of State Division of Corporations even showed Rothstein's name listed forms for several of the LLC's.

The campaign was also asked about it on Nov. 5 and said they would have their finance team look into it.

On Nov. 10, the campaign announced that it would return the additional $4,500 bringing the total to $6,500 that Sink is returning.

In a statement a campaign spokeswoman said: "These are very serious allegations. The campaign is returning or donating to charity any contributions from Mr. Rothstein, his wife, his law firm and other corporate entities. if it becomes clear that others were involved in this matter, it's our intention to return those contributions as well.''

A party divided: GOP splintering in Florida

A year before one of the most wide-open elections in state history, Florida's Republican Party has splintered over everything from philosophy to questions over how the party is being run.

The divide goes beyond former House Speaker Marco Rubio's challenge to Gov. Charlie Crist in next year's primary for the U.S. Senate. There are also divisions over party leadership and party message that have resulted in the unusual sight of contested primaries in five statewide contests. Those factions include Crist loyalists, allies of Bush upset with Crist, as well as some who are loudly critical of Republican Party of Florida Chairman Jim Greer.

You can find the full story here.

Here's a few items of interest in the story:

Greer says there is a small group of Republicans "ready to pounce at any time on any issue" in order to embarrass the party and Republican candidates.

Others quoted say that Crist or someone need to sweep out the party leadership in advance of the 2010 elections.

Sarasota County GOP chairman Joe Gruters says Republicans should follow the so-called 11th commandment offered by Ronald Reagan and not speak ill of any fellow Republican. "They should refrain from getting ahead by trashing their opponents. Because at the end of the day, that's what will hurt us."

So what counts as a Rothstein contribution?

It didn't take long for both parties and politicians of all stripes to start returning money that they had collected from Broward County attorney Scott Rothstein, who stands accused of defrauding investors.

But a key question remains: How much money should be returned?

Gov. Charlie Crist, who attended a reception at Rothstein's wedding, has agreed to turn over $9,600, while Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink has said she will give back $2,000.

But a search of Sink's campaign finance records, however, shows that she received $4,500 from 9 different limited liability companies with the same address as Rothstein's law firm. State corporate records show that Rothstein is listed as a manager for six of the companies, which go by names such as WAWW II, WAWW 12 and WAWW 14.

Corporate records for three of the limited liability companies do not show Rothstein's name.

Sink's campaign office said earlier this week that if it became "clear" that other contributions were involved that those contributions would also be returned. A campaign spokeswoman said Thursday that the campaign is in the process of going through its donation records.

Crist's nearly $10,000 came from Rothstein and his wife. But Crist also received as much as $90,000 from employees of the Rothstein law firm and some of their family members. Crist, however, made it clear to reports on Wednesday that he does not plan to return those donations because the "allegations" are against Rothstein and not others at the firm.

"Are there allegations against those other people?," asked Crist. "Not that I'm aware of. Fair enough."

House Republicans ask Florida senators to vote no on health care reform

Republicans in the Florida House, citing concerns that Medicaid costs are “unsustainable,” will ask the state’s two U.S senators to vote against health reform legislation pending in Congress.
 
House Majority Leader Adam Hasner asked Republicans to sign letters to Sens. George LeMieux and Bill Nelson during a late Tuesday afternoon briefing, where Republicans were warned about the ongoing surge in Medicaid enrollment and costs. Medicaid is the state and federal health care program that covers low-income families, the elderly and the disabled. 

House budget staff showed projections that Medicaid could increase from a 26 percent share of the state’s overall budget to as much as 36 percent in the next decade if trends from the past 12 years continue.

“What we are seeing here is unsustainable for the state,’’ said Rep. Denise Grimsley, R-Lake Placid, a registered nurse who is in charge of the House budget committee on health care spending. 

The 10-percent increase over a decade assumes that underlying medical costs, a driver in the Medicaid program, aren’t addressed. More here.