The Fine Print

Florida's wild expensive election could have big stakes

Florida's bitter, expensive and wild election season will finally lurch to a close on Tuesday.

Voters, besieged by a barrage of political ads, could be forgiven for thinking that the main issues are Medicare fraud, lockstep devotion to President Barack Obama and reckless plans to raise taxes.

But the election's impact on a state with a million residents out of work and hundreds of thousands of homes in foreclosure looms far more prominently than all that campaign vitriol filling airwaves and mailboxes.

"I think that Florida is at a crossroads and so is our country, and the Florida election can make a determination of the future of America," said Gov. Charlie Crist, running as an independent for U.S. Senate.

Crist's decision to leave office after just one term to run for a Senate seat helped spark a frenzied run for governor and marked the first time in more than 100 years that both the governor and all the seats on the Cabinet were open at the same time.

Democrats hope to win back the governor's mansion after 12 years of Republican control and begin to chip away at GOP dominance of the Florida Legislature.

"There's an opportunity here in this election to bring some balance back," said Karen Thurman, chairman of the Florida Democratic Party.

Florida voters could help decide the direction of the country and the state. They could help Republicans seize the U.S. House, give the Legislature a veto-proof majority, or pass amendments that could alter the state's political makeup.

A longer look at Florida's high-stakes election can be found here.

Crist's demise leaves an uncertain legacy

With polls showing that he continues to lag behind rival Marco Rubio, the hour that Gov. Charlie Crist spent with David Gregory at Tuesday night’s U.S. Senate debate might be his final time in the national spotlight.

Crist, who had successfully climbed from the ranks of the state senate into the governor’s mansion, is now confronted with the prospect that his political career for now is over. His decision to bolt the Republican Party and run as an independent means that he will have few options after this year.

His political ascent was marked by several twists and turns and it is hard to imagine that the man now preaching about independence and moderation once accused Democrats of dirty tricks in getting then-Gov. Lawton Chiles elected over Jeb Bush back in 1994.

But as Crist exits the stage, he leaves behind an uncertain – and largely incomplete – legacy as Florida’s governor. Crist became the first governor to voluntarily give up the post after one term in the 40-plus years that governors have been allowed to seek re-election.

Lance deHaven-Smith, a professor of public administration and policy at Florida State University, said Crist’s legacy actually depends on how the election turns out next week.

“Crist tried to move his party and the state back toward the middle after eight rather polarizing years under Jeb Bush,'' notes deHaven-Smith said in an e-mail. “He did not accomplish much policy-wise compared to many other governors, but he contributed to significant improvements in the state’s civic culture.  If he is elected to the Senate, Florida is likely to see a continuation of this moderation in public office for both parties.  If he loses, well, his legacy of compromise and pragmatism may be short-lived."

David Colburn, a professor of history at the University of Florida and a long-time scholar of state politics, said that Crist clearly tried to work with both political parties and was not ideological in how he approached problems. An example of this, of course, was Crist's decision to embrace the federal stimulus in order to help ease Florida's budget woes.

“I think it is easy to dismiss Crist as a politician who is only interested in getting and holding office and that there really is not much to him,’’ Colburn said in an e-mail.  “Clearly he is not ideological and he made clear to more than one state political leader that "he was not Jeb Bush." By that he meant that he was willing to work with both parties to find solutions to critical issues facing Florida and that he did not dismiss government's role in improving the quality of life for Floridians.”

But Colburn also made it clear that Crist is unlikely to leave the same kind of impact that other governors left.

A full look at Crist's uncertain legacy can be found here at the Florida Tribune.

GOP legislator urged a "no vote" against Atwater but changed his mind

Rep. Charles Van Zant, who this week sent out an e-mail suggesting GOP candidate for governor Rick Scott would support a near ban on abortion, also told his supporters on Monday that he would not be backing Senate President Jeff Atwater for Chief Financial Officer.

The reason? He said that Atwater during the 2010 session scrapped a meeting with him when Van Zant wanted to talk about the Florida Right to Life Act, the bill that would ban abortion in all nearly all cases except if the mother's life was in danger. Van Zant said that initially Atwater agreed to meet with him but that it was cancelled after Atwater's staff were told it was about Van Zant's bill.

Brian Hughes, communications director for Atwater's campaign, said that "if staff treated Representative Van Zandt unprofessionally that was certainly not Jeff’s intent and it is regrettable. Jeff Atwater has a consistent, conservative record. Jeff has been endorsed by the Florida Chamber of Commerce, the NRA, and Florida Right to Life.  These endorsements all reflect support for his plan to cut government waste, give more accountability and transparency to Floridians, and champion the entrepreneurs who will grow the state's economy while creating jobs."

Hughes added that "Jeff apologized to Representative Van Zant for the confusion about the meeting, and the representative said he accepted."

Hughes then forwarded a e-mail that Van Zant put out this morning:

Dear friends,

Since my e-mail to you on Monday, I feel compelled to further comment on Jeff Atwater's race for Florida's Chief Financial Officer. 

Tuesday, Mr. Atwater telephoned me and we talked for about 45 minutes.  He apologized for the cancellation of our meeting regarding the Florida for Life Act and said he would never knowingly cancel a meeting on a pro-life issue.  I personally believe he is sincere and have accepted his apology and statement.  In addition, he has accepted full responsibility for what happened.

Jeff Atwater has a standing 10-year pro-life voting record.  His pro-life credentials have always been very clear.  He has also assured me that as a member of Florida's cabinet, his door will always be open to help legislators on pro-life issues. 

Here's what Van Zant said in the e-mail he sent out on Monday:

Chief Financial Officer: NO to Jeff Atwater. 

For the record, last year Jeff Atwater agreed to a legislative meeting with me in his office.  When the Florida for Life Act, that would ban abortion and protect the lives of unborn Floridians was given to his staff as the subject of the meeting, the meeting was abruptly cancelled and he refused to meet with me.  I will not vote for him.

Legislator says Scott will help make abortion nearly illegal in Florida

A state legislator claims in a new message to supporters that Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Scott has pledged, if elected, to throw his support behind a bill that would make abortion illegal in Florida in nearly all instances, including rape and incest.

An e-mail sent out by Rep. Charles Van Zant this week urges his supporters to vote for Scott because he personally promised to sign into law the "Florida Right to Life Act." Van Zant, R-Keystone Heights, added that "Scott pledged that he would assist in advancing the Florida for Life Act through both Florida's House and Senate."

Van Zant, a minister and an architect, added in his e-mail that he had a follow-up conversation with Scott about whether the Naples businessman would make abortion illegal in Florida: "He immediately said 'Yes, that's what I believe and that's what I will do.' He telephoned me last week to assure me that he would keep this issue before our state government," Van Zant added.

Asked directly whether Van Zant's e-mail was accurate, Scott campaign spokesman Travis Burk said that "Rick Scott's pro-life position has not changed." Scott has in the past said he is opposed to abortion but does support it for the life of the mother as well as victims of rape and incest.

The Scott campaign refused to answer other questions about the e-mail. Repeated attempts to reach Van Zant were unsuccessful.

Legal experts say that if such a ban on abortion is approved in Florida, it will trigger a legal war that could reach the U.S. Supreme Court and have national implications.

Here's the entire story at the Sarasota Herald-Tribune.

And here's the entire text of Van Zant's e-mail regarding the governor's race:

Dear friends,

Thank you for the many concerned phone calls and e-mails regarding who to vote for in this election cycle.  Many of the races before us have become so controversial due to negative campaigning that the lines for voters are blurred unless you really know the candidates and the issues.  Below please find my opinion and recommendation regarding various state level races and issues, including candidates to vote for, ballot amendments and Supreme Court Judges.  Some have been difficult decisions but have been made with prayer and some based on conversations with the candidates themselves.  Local races for State Legislature, County governments and School Board are not included.

Although you will now have my opinion and recommendation before you, please pray and ask God who to vote for so that ultimately your vote is cast with personal conviction.  Another good thing to do is to look up the Supervisor of Elections website for your county and print out the sample ballot provided.  This will have additional candidates and issues that are not included in this e-mail.  Fill it in and take it with you to the voting booth.  This way you won't be making such important decisions at the moment of voting but will have them well thought out before you get there. 

Florida Governor: Rick Scott / Jennifer Carroll

Please read all the information regarding this recommendation as it is critical for you to be informed about this race.  First, I've known Jennifer Carroll for years.  She is a remarkably devoted conservative who consistently has stood for lower taxes, smaller government, and our free enterprise system while maintaining her allegiance to God and country.

I met Rick Scott during the Primary election and have spent time with him on two occasions and have talked to him on the phone and prayed with him several times. He has taken stands on key issues that define this election for conservatives. Florida's Governor will affect several neighboring states and the Judeo-Christian community of the entire region will be affected by his passage or veto of certain Bills. 

Regarding abortion: Rick Scott pledged that he would assist in advancing the Florida for Life Act through both Florida's House and Senate. He also promised that, once passed, he will sign it into law on behalf of Florida's unborn.  He also added that "in addition to changing our laws we need a campaign to educate people not to destroy their unborn children."  To that I say - Amen.

During our second meeting, I said, "The second mail piece I received from your campaign carried the message that if you were Governor, you would sign legislation making abortion illegal in Florida. Since that was early during the Primary Campaign in a field of Republican Candidates, do you still intend to make that an issue during the General Campaign?"  He immediately said "Yes, that's what I believe and that's what I will do." He telephoned me last week to assure me that he would keep this issue before our state government.

Regarding the issue of state spending, Rick Scott promised that he would budget state spending down and "outsource" state jobs where possible.  This does not mean that he would send state jobs overseas.  Quite the contrary, it means that lucrative jobs within Florida's state government would be bid out to competitive bidders that exist within Florida's business community. This would create jobs for Floridians in the private sector and reduce state spending (and necessary tax dollars) dramatically.  In short, this means state spending and taxes would both decrease and jobs for Floridians would increase.

Regarding property tax reform, his plan calls for a reduction of property taxes by 19 percent.  We desperately need that.

Regarding our Second Amendment rights: according to past NRA president Marion Hammer, Rick Scott has an A rating from the NRA.   His opponent, Alex Sink, has an F rating. To the extent that our citizens' right to keep and bear arms is ever infringed upon, our freedom is diminished.  The National Rifle Association does more to protect our Second Amendment Rights than any other organization in the country.  One main reason that we enjoy the freedom we have today is because our right to keep and bear arms has been protected without infringement.  We must have a governor with an A rating from the NRA.

Also, I wanted to check out opposition claims that Rick Scott was linked to a great Medicaid fraud scandal. So, I contacted a Prosecutor with the State Attorney's office. The reply to my request says:

"Mr. Scott was never a target of the investigation. I have read all the materials I can find on Rick Scott and the HCA investigations.  I have not found any documents that suggest that Rick Scott was ever considered a target of an investigation.  He was not charged with any crime, he was not interviewed about any wrong doing."

 

House Republican leader visits "friends" in Florida, says 4 Democrats will lose

House Republican Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, made a surprise visit into Tallahassee on Thursday where he stopped by the private Governor's Club for a lunchtime event.

Boehner was coy about his presence in Florida's capital city although he is scheduled to hit a fundraiser in Destin for Republican Steve Southerland later on Thursday. Southerland is challenging U.S. Rep. Allen Boyd, D-Monticello in U.S. House District 2 race.

A protest is scheduled near the site of the Southerland fundraiser to highlight what is called Boehner's plan to help with the "corporate takeover" of Washington.

So it was interesting that Boehner refused to say why he was in Tallahassee or at the Governor's Club, whose members include many of the city's most powerful and influential lobbyists.

"I just wanted to have lunch with some of my friends,'' Boehner said.

When asked who his friends in Florida were Boehner said: "I've got lots of friends."

Boehner did heap praise on Southerland, calling him a "great asset to our team."

Boehner added that he expects the GOP to do well in Florida on Election Day and that they will pick up the seats now held by Boyd, U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson, U.S. Rep. Suzanne Kosmas and U.S. Rep. Ron Klein. He also said the Republicans will win House District 25 race between Democrat Joe Garcia and Republican State Rep. David Rivera.

"We're going to have a very good day,'' Boehner said. "I think there are four races that we can win in Florida, knocking out four incumbents and holding the open seat in South Florida."

Boehner insisted that the policies that have come out of the Democratic Congress and the Obama administration have "made the economy worse" and created "uncertainty" for businesses. And that's why it's "going to be a big election for Republicans in 19 days."

 

 

 

 

Charlie Crist's defection from GOP could still leave a mark

If you believe the multitude of polls out there right now, the consensus is that Gov. Charlie Crist's bid to become Florida's next U.S. Senator is doomed.

Crist bolted the GOP last April to run as an independent candidate after it was clear that Marco Rubio would defeat him in a Republican primary. At first he surged ahead in the polls but now all of them having him trail Rubio by double-digits.

Yet Crist's decision to leave his party could still have a ripple effect after he's gone.

That's because a new report released this week by the Senate Ethics and Elections Committee recommends making it harder for candidates to switch parties and avoid primaries. While there is no guarantee that a bill will be filed, committee reports are often seen as a precursor to future legislation.

The report suggests that Florida lawmakers should change the law so that candidates cannot change their parties less than a year before qualifying begins. It notes that "requiring a candidate to make an ultimate decision on party membership or NPA status 16-18 months before the general election would effectively eliminate or drastically reduce last-minute, self-serving decisions regarding candidacy."

The same report also suggests that Florida needs a “sore loser” law that would ensure that no future candidate could lose a primary and then still show up on the general election ballot. The Senate report says that a close look at the existing law shows that there is no actual “prohibition” on a candidate running as someone with no party affiliation following a primary defeat. U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman in Connecticut ran as a third-party candidate in 2006 after he was defeated in the Democratic primary.

You can read more about the report here at the Florida Tribune.

 

 

Handful of races could help GOP Legislature get a veto-proof majority

Millions of dollars are being spent to elect Florida's next governor, but what happens over the next four years may hinge just as much on little-noticed races going on in Gainesville, Sarasota, Tampa and West Palm Beach.

The Florida Legislature is already solidly Republican and Election Day will do little to change that. But a handful of races in the state House and Senate could give Republicans a veto-proof majority.

The veto has been a major political force in Florida government under Gov. Charlie Crist, who has repeatedly used it to turn back some of the Republican Legislature's biggest initiatives, including one to allow property insurance companies to raise rates without government approval and another to end tenure for public teachers.

But Florida's next governor may not have that power.

"Regardless of who wins the governor's race, I expect the legislative branch to be stronger in the next two years than it has been in a long time," predicted incoming House Speaker Dean Cannon, R-Winter Park.

Democratic legislative leaders, of course, reject the notion that the GOP will pick up enough seats to reach the magic number needed to get a veto-proof majority.

You can read the entire story here at the Sarasota Herald-Tribune.

The math is this: Republicans currently hold a 76-43 majority in the House, with one seat vacant. Democrats will pick up the vacant seat since there is no GOP opposition. In the Senate, the breakdown is 26-13, with one seat vacant. Rep. Maria Sachs, however, will keep that seat for the Democrats since no one ran against her.

The seats that could make or break the GOP goal of a veto-proof majority as follows:

STATE SENATE:

District 8: Currently held by Sen. John Thrasher, R-St. Augustine, this district is rock-solid Republican. But Democrats remain hopeful that newcomer Deborah Gianoulis - a former television anchor with high name recognition - can pull off the upset. A recent internal poll showed Gianoulis ahead and the GOP has recently put up money for television ads to help Thrasher.

District 14: Democrats are targeting incumbent Sen. Steve Oelrich, R-Gainesville. Oelrich, a former sheriff, is being challenged by former Rep. Perry McGriff, D-Gainesville.

District 16: Sen. Charlie Justice, D-St. Petersburg, gave up what could have been a relatively-easy re-election to run for Congress, but instead of getting a shot at an open seat incumbent U.S. Rep. Bill Young opted to seek another term. Former State Sen. Jack Latvala appears likely to take back this district for the Republicans.

District 25: This South Florida seat is currently held by Senate President Jeff Atwater and it features a battle between two legislative veterans - Rep. Ellyn Bogdanoff and Rep. Kelly Skidmore. Bogdanoff went through a bruising primary, but indications are that this seat will likely remain Republican.

District 27: This seat - which stretches from Palm Beach County to Charlotte County - is held by outgoing Sen. Dave Aronberg. Rep. Kevin Rader, D-Delray Beach, is the Democratic candidate, while Wellington Village Council member Lizbeth Benacquisto is the GOP candidate. Radar, who was hammered over his insurance votes by his primary opponent, is coming under fire again. Republicans are hopeful that they can pick up this seat. If the GOP holds its own seats and picks up District 16 and District 27 then they a veto-proof majority in the Senate.

STATE HOUSE

District 11: Rep. Debbie Boyd, D-Newberry, barely won this North Florida legislative seat two years ago. Boyd beat former Columbia County Commissioner Elizabeth Porter by 179 votes and now Porter has returned for a re-match.

District 34: Democrats contend that they can defeat Rep. Chris Dorworth, R-Lake Mary in this seat. Dorworth, who is in line to become House speaker, has had his share of high-profile financial troubles that have made the news. The race includes a Tea Party candidate and Democrat Steve Barnes, a former journalist and teacher.

District 51: Rep. Janet Long, D-Seminole, is one of two Democrats in Pinellas County who has been targeted by Republicans since their legislative seats were once held by the GOP. Long is being challenged by Larry Ahern, who runs his own swimming pool remodeling and commercial fountain business.

District 52: Rep. Bill Heller, D-St. Petersburg, is the other Democrat that the GOP wants to take out in Pinellas. Heller is being challenged by Jeff Brandes, a political newcomer who has been able to put his own money into the race.

District 57: This is an open seat that had been held by Rep. Faye Culp, R-Tampa. Democrats are optimistic that Stacy Frank, an attorney and daughter of Hillsborough County Clerk of the Courts Pat Frank, will take this seat. The GOP candidate is Dana Young, an attorney who once worked for the powerhouse firm of Fowler White Boggs.

District 81: This is a battle between incumbent Rep. Adam Fetterman, D-Port St. Lucie and former Rep. Gayle Harrell. This seat was held by Harrell, R-Stuart before she mounted an unsuccessful campaign for Congress.

 

 

The war against Florida's campaign finance laws

With just weeks left before Election Day, there is a big legal war going on that could eliminate a large chunk of Florida's campaign finance laws.

There are now two federal lawsuits that - if successful - could allow groups and organizations to spend money to attack or help candidates and to mount campaigns for and against constitutional amendments without ever having to report to the state who is bankrolling their efforts. (None of these efforts, of course, would impact filing requirements for the IRS.)

One of the legal challenges is coming from a group opposed to gay marriage that wants to air campaign ads in North Florida.

The National Organization for Marriage in late September filed a federal lawsuit in Gainesville that says new laws regarding “electioneering communication organizations” are unconstitutional because they impose burdens on free speech. State legislators passed the new law regarding ECOs, or what are more commonly known as 527s, after Florida’s previous law was struck down by a federal judge.

You can read more about this lawsuit here at the Florida Tribune. But it's worth noting that the GOP-controlled Legislature passed the new ECO requirements after a bitter state Senate race in Northeast Florida included ads run by shadowy groups whose financial sources were not revealed until months after the election.

The lawsuit against the ECO portion of the law is now the second ongoing lawsuit targeting Florida’s campaign finance laws. Last week a group representing conservative activists from Southwest Florida filed a federal lawsuit seeking to block regulation of political committees, which are usually groups that are formed to oppose or pass constitutional amendments.

"General Motors and the AFL-CIO aren't forced to speak through a political committee, but our clients, ordinary Americans, are. That's unconstitutional," said Paul Sherman, staff attorney for the Institute for Justice, said when announcing the lawsuit.