The Fine Print

Romney's Florida math

GOP presidential hopeful Mitt Romney touched down in Florida on Tuesday, making public appearances in both Tampa and Miami.

Romney got plenty of news coverage for his visit - and also picked up the endorsements of three well-known Cuban Americans who backed U.S. Sen. John McCain back in 2008.

The decision of his campaign to campaign in Central Florida and South Florida is likely a reflection of the math that led to Romney's defeat four years ago.

Romney lost the Florida primary to McCain by nearly 97,000 votes.

But the former Massachusetts governor's loss was not across the board.

Instead McCain and Romney found victory and defeat by how they fared in different parts of the state that each have their own unique sense of geopolitics.

Romney actually bested McCain in 17 counties. He had his strongest performances in Northeast Florida and in Southwest Florida. Romney won Duval County by more than 13,000 votes.

So why did Romney lose?

Because he lost to McCain in the Tampa Bay area and because he fared miserably in South Florida.

McCain took both Hillsborough and Pinellas counties by decent margins, but he really racked up a lead down south.

McCain did better than Romney in Broward County by more than 17,000 votes. McCain won Palm Beach County by more than 10,000 votes and had a 52,000 vote-plus edge over Romney in Miami-Dade.

In Miami-Dade Romney actually came in third trailing both McCain and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Of course a lot of the buzz four years ago was that the late endorsement by Gov. Charlie Crist may have given McCain the momentum he needed to push past Romney.

This is a new day and a new election and Romney's focus on the economy and jobs should resonate in a state with more than 900,000 people out of work. (The unemployment rate in Florida back during the 2008 primary was 4.6 percent.)

But one has to wonder what kind of impact that Romney's hard-line stance on immigration will have in South Florida even with the recent endorsements of well-known politicians such as Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Mario Diaz-Balart.

If former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich remains a contender, it will be interesting how Gingrich's more nuanced stance on immigration will play in Miami-Dade. Current voter stats show that 9.1 percent of all registered Republicans in Florida live in Miami-Dade.

There is a school of thought that one reason that Bill McCollum lost to Rick Scott in last year's GOP primary for governor is because McCollum suddenly took a hard-line stance on immigration in response to Scott's television ad barrage that made McCollum appear soft on the issue. The thinking is that this left Hispanic Republicans lukewarm when it came to both candidates. Scott was also able to accuse McCollum of being a flip-flopper.

What is indisputable is that Scott squeaked out a 36,000 vote victory in a primary that saw both Broward and Miami-Dade have low turnout margins compared to the rest of the state.

Broward turnout in the GOP primary for governor didn't even top 15 percent, while Miami-Dade turnout was 17.9 percent. McCollum won both counties, but not with the kinds of margins to help him offset his loss in places such as Scott's home county of Collier or in Duval County.

Is a presidential preference primary and a governor's primary the same thing? Absolutely not.

But it's hard not to wonder if some of the new advisers for Texas Gov. Rick Perry (including the team which helped engineer Scott's victory) have looked at the math and concluded that Romney remains vulnerable in Florida. (Especially if Perry is able to hold onto his money and use it for television ads during the home stretch before the Jan. 31 primary.)

Romney's path to the nomination will be a lot easier if he cruises to easy victories in states such as New Hampshire and Florida.

But if Romney loses again then Florida could be the precursor to a much longer and drawn-out nomination fight.

The mythology of Rick Scott grows

Well, it turns out that the mythology of Rick Scott is getting larger.

Last month I pointed out that the Scott's press office was distributing a document among themselves that had "Five Myths about Florida Governor Rick Scott Dispelled."

Guess what? It's even longer now. There are now 7 myths. The two newcomers? Rick Scott doesn't care about state workers and Rick Scott is blindly cutting the state budget.

Here's the newly revised document:

 

Seven Myths About Florida Governor Rick Scott Dispelled

 

Myth: Rick Scott has always been wealthy.

Truth:

• Governor Scott started school in public housing in Urbane, Illinois.
• Governor Scott began working at a young age because his family struggled financially.
• He did every job from delivering newspapers and cleaning phone booths, to selling groceries and working on a ship in the United States Navy.
• These jobs taught him the value of working hard and the impact of every penny.
• His background is what inspires him every day to turn the state around.
• ·

Myth: Rick Scott hasn’t done anything to create jobs.

Truth:

• We are on the way to reaching 700,000 jobs in seven years.
• This is because of Governor Scott’s tax cuts, actions to streamline state government and initial steps to return state government to its core functions and grow private-sector jobs.
• Fla’s unemployment rate went from 12 to10.6 percent since Governor Scott took office.
• Fla. has gained 110,300 private sector jobs since January.
• 17,900 public sector jobs have been eliminated since January.
• That’s a net total of 92,400 jobs added since January.

 

Myth: Rick Scott is receiving a salary, special health care benefits and operating his plane all at the taxpayer’s expense.

Truth:

• Governor Scott receives 1 cent per month simply for administrative purposes and pays for parking even though he does not own a car.
• He is enrolled in the same healthcare plan as all state employees.
• Sold the state airplanes and covers the costs of his personal aircraft at no cost to taxpayers.
• No salary and no state plane results in taxpayer savings of more than $2.5 million per year.

 

Myth: Rick Scott doesn’t talk to the media or read newspapers

Truth:

• Governor Scott talks to media daily and at least one hour is reserved for interviews.
• Governor Scott has done several hundred radio interviews since he came into office and has participated in 10 editorial board meetings.
• The Governor reads statewide, national and international news daily.  He also looks at the front pages of Florida’s 21 largest daily newspapers each morning.

 

Myth: Rick Scott doesn’t believe in open government and doesn’t even have an email.

Truth:

• Governor Scott believes the public has a right to know what state government is doing with their hard-earned tax dollars.
• In the first nine months of the Scott administration the Governor’s Office had 1075 public records requests, of which 1024 (95%) have been fulfilled.
• During the entire four years of the previous administration, only 899 public records requests were fulfilled by the Governor’s Office of Open Government.
• Governor Scott has put up significant information on the website Floridahasarighttoknow.com about pension, salaries, etc.
• To date, the Governor has received more than 250,000 emails compared to approximately 160,000 Governor Crist received in his first year.

 

Myth: Rick Scott doesn’t care about state workers.

Truth:

• Governor Scott is impressed with the work ethic and dedication of state employees.
• He wants all state employees to have a reliable retirement plan.
• This is why one of his top priorities is making sure the pension is fully funded.
• Currently the pension is 87 percent funded and dropping.
• Governor Scott believes 100 percent is what the retirees should be able to count on.
• That’s why Governor Scott had state employees begin paying into their retirement plan.

 

Myth: Rick Scott is blindly cutting the budget.

Truth:

• Governor Scott is constitutionally required to balance the state budget every year.
• He has reduced the size, scope and cost of government while preserving critical safety nets. 
• He campaigned on reducing government spending and using accountability budgeting.
• He kept his promise by balancing the budget without tax increases.
• Also used outcome-based budgeting to create efficiency throughout government.
• Although the choices were tough, he did what was necessary to create private-sector jobs and balance the budget without increasing taxes.

 

 

Could this become an issue in Mack vs. Hasner vs. LeMieux race?

Put this in "Will this become an issue in the U.S. Senate race?" file.

Sometime next year motorists across Florida will begin paying higher tolls to use nearly 600 miles of highway according to information recently released by the Florida Department of Transportation.

The average toll increase will be about $.25 and it will affect major roads such as the Florida Turnpike, Alligator Alley, Sunshine Skyway bridge, the Veterans Expressway and the Beachline Expressway in Central Florida.

This toll hike was authorized by HB 985, a major transportation bill that was approved by the Republican-controlled Legislature during the 2007 session. It mandates that the tolls be raised at least once every five years to keep pace with inflation.

The bill since then has become known as the legislation that authorized the millions used to construct the controversial First District Court of Appeal or the "Tallahassee Taj Mahal."

But while that provision was slipped into the legislation in the waning days of the session the toll provisions were hotly debated on the floor of the Florida House.

The House ultimately approved the bill by a 68-49 margin with Rep. Adam Hasner, R-Boca Raton and current U.S. Senate candidate voting for it. Other Republicans who voted yes include House Speaker Marco Rubio and Sen. Mike Haridopolos.

But the legislation did not draw in universal support from GOP lawmakers. Legislators such as Rep. Dennis Ross (who is now in Congress) and current Senate Majority Leader Andy Gardiner were among those who voted no on the bill.

So why could this bill become an issue?

Because U.S. Rep. Connie Mack - and who is expected to jump to join the list of GOP contenders in the U.S. Senate - is among those who has spoken out loudly about raising tolls on Florida roads. Mack, for example, staunchly opposed a proposal to add tolls to Interstate 75 in southwest Florida to help finance a widening of the road.

"Tolls never go away," Mack told Lee County Commissioners back in 2008 according to the Naples Daily News. "They're an added tax. The easy thing to do is say 'Let's toll.'"

Former U.S. Sen. George LeMieux had nothing directly to do with the tolling bill. But LeMieux was chief of staff when then-Gov. Charlie Crist signed the legislation into law.

The toll increases are expected to generate $1.8 billion and while some of the money will be used to expand existing toll roads it will also be used to build the Wekiva Parkway in Central Florida.

It may be the toll increases will not become a campaign issue but the hikes will likely take effect shortly before the August Republican primary - meaning it could be fresh upon voters minds when it comes time to vote. And that means some campaign consultant could find it an issue to jump onto.

 

Big tax hike could hamper Gov. Rick Scott's push for jobs

In a series of recent stump speeches, Gov. Rick Scott has emphasized that his goals remain simple: Keep down the cost of living, create jobs and improve education.

Scott's agenda for 2012 includes a smattering of additional tax cuts and a continued drive to eliminate regulations that could be holding back growth in a state that is dealing with 10.6 percent unemployment.

But now there's a big tax hike on the horizon that could hamper his plans.

For two years, state lawmakers have pushed back significant hikes in the state's unemployment compensation taxes.These are the taxes that are used to help pay benefits to the nearly 1 million people out of work.

But preliminary figures released Thursday show the minimum tax rate for employers is expected to jump from $72.10 per employee to more than $170 per employee. The maximum rate is also expected to rise from $378 to $459 per employee.

"This is a big deal," said David Hart, executive vice president of the Florida Chamber of Commerce. "The last thing we ought to be doing is putting additional burdens on employers."

Here's the full story about the tax hike.

So far neither Scott nor the Republican-controlled Legislature has talked much about this. Even the Chamber itself gave the issue only a brief mention in its 2012 list of priorities.

But Hart himself says discussions are already underway to try to convince state lawmakers that something needs to be done to "soften the burden."

It's not as if this is surprising since lawmakers nearly two years ago delayed another big tax hike. But back then the hope was that the economy would have turned around enough by 2012 so that employers could afford the higher costs.

One of the ways the state could ease the burden on employers is by rolling back some of the planned tax increases, but the downside is that it extends the amount of time it will take the state to pay back the federal government.

Right now the state owes $1.7 billion in loans that were used to keep the unemployment compensation trust fund solvent since 2009.

This year business owners paid a special assessment to cover interest that is now owed on the outstanding balance. But there's an additional penalty if the state does not promptly repay the federal government: The loss of federal tax credits. (Right now employers get a tax credit for their state unemployment taxes that is deducted from federal taxes they owe.)

Scott, who rolls out his 2012 budget proposal in early December, could offer to have the state to pay the interest charges in the coming year if the big tax hikes are delayed yet again.

But the problem for the governor is he is dealing with a projected budget shortfall that ranges - depending on who you ask - from $1.2 billion to $2 billion.

The question for the governor and the GOP-controlled Florida Legislature is whether or not the unemployment compensation tax hike rises to the level that it trumps other budget and tax considerations.

Would Scott, for example, go along with helping stall the unemployment tax hike which will affect nearly 460,000 businesses across the state in exchange for backing off his push for another small cut in the corporate income tax that he has vowed to eliminate in seven years?

Or does Scott come up with enough cuts to accommodate the shortfall, the tax cuts he has already proposed, as well as take care of unemployment tax hike?

Mark your calendars: On Dec. 8 we should know the answer.