The Fine Print

Some things to take away from Florida primary (other than who won)

Well if everything goes according to plan Mitt Romney will leave Florida's Jan. 31 primary with a convincing victory that could likely give him the GOP nomination for president.

But there are other things to mull over once Romney leaves and the Tuesday night speeches are finalized.

Turnout/enthusiasm. You could see the hand-writing on the wall for the 2010 elections when you look at what happened in the primary elections. Nearly 1.3 million Republicans voted in the bitter primary for governor between Bill McCollum and Rick Scott. By contrast slightly more than 917,000 Democrats voted in Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.

At the time Democratic operatives pooh-poohed the difference, contending it would all change for the fall elections and that the Democratic voter registration edge would prove the difference in the general election. Democrats of course got trounced, losing the governor's mansion, seats in Congress and spots on the Cabinet.

It doesn't matter that Alex Sink got 2.55 million votes. She still wound up losing to Scott despite Scott's background (think Columbia/HCA and the record fine for Medicare fraud after he was forced to leave the company.) Republicans did a better job of getting their voters out to the polls.

As of Monday, more than 623,000 Republicans had voted early or absentee in the primary.

Four years ago more than 1.94 million Republicans voted in a wide-open presidential primary held at roughly the same time.

There will be some attempt to say these numbers are skewed and point out that Amendment 1 (a measure to cut property taxes) was on the ballot during the same election.

But if Republicans dramatically fall short of the 1.94 million - or surpass that total - it could yield some clues about the overall intensity of the GOP base heading into the fall elections.

Yes, I realize that Republican voters will be fired up to cast a vote against President Barack Obama in November, but I have to think the Obama campaign will be look deeply into these turnout numbers to gauge how rough it may be to win Florida in November. Additionally, you can expect both parties to spin these numbers as well.

How did Romney fare in particular counties?

Some colleagues in the press have already ticked off some of the counties they are paying attention to, such as Pinellas or Miami-Dade or Duval.

Miami-Dade remains one of the most pivotal because Romney fared so badly there during the 2008 presidential primary. Miami-Dade has nearly 265,000 Hispanic Republicans - or more than half of the state's total. More than 70 percent of GOP voters in that county identify themselves as Hispanic. A big win there will prove that Romney's position on immigration did not hurt him there and may not be the wedge issue that Democrats keep hoping it will be (at least here in Florida.)

Other counties that will be worth looking at are those in Southwest Florida.

Romney won Collier and Lee counties back in January 2008, but one can argue that was before the full impact of the meltdown of the housing market left its mark there. If Romney falters in these two safe GOP counties, it could be interpreted that some of the attacks on him (and which will likely be copied by the Obama campaign) worked.

Early voting/absentee ballots

On a lesser note, it will be interesting to see how many Republicans voted absentee and voted early versus showing up on primary day given the aversion that some GOP legislators have to early voting.

If primary day voting is slow, you can expect an uptick in complaints about early voting. Some legislators such as Sen. Ellyn Bogdanoff have long complained that early voting hurts the process, especially what she calls "grassroots" candidates who do not have the resources to match a more-established, well-funded candidate.

Rick Scott's incomplete grade

Gov. Rick Scott - who has billed himself as Florida's jobs governor - says repeatedly that he receives a new grade every month when Florida's unemployment rates are released.

But maybe the grade Scott should get in his first year in office is an incomplete.

Why?

Because it turns out that the numbers that Scott relies on are nothing more than preliminary estimates based on a survey of 2,500 households.

Additionally, it is likely that the numbers will be changed in March.

Here's the full story on the benchmarking and process changes that could mean that the 2.1 percentage drop that Scott has praised may be inaccurate.

As the story points out economists and others who follow unemployment data know that the numbers are subject to revision.

Some of these changes are small, yet other revisions are quite substantial. For example, the reported unemployment rate in March 2010 was 12.3 percent. In March 2011 that rate was substantially changed and lowered to 11.3 percent.

Because of the change the December 2010 unemployment rate of 12 percent is now listed as the highest on record. (State unemployment rates date back to the '70s.)

Here's a look at how much the numbers changed the last two years from what they were initially reported.

Florida Unemployment Rates (seasonally adjusted)
Before Benchmark Compared to After Benchmark January 2009 to December 2010
	Unemployment Rates
Month/Year	Before Benchmark	After Benchmark (current)
Jan-09	8.7	8.5
Feb-09	9.2	9.0
Mar-09	9.6	9.4
Apr-09	9.9	9.7
May-09	10.2	10.0
Jun-09	10.5	10.2
Jul-09	10.8	10.5
Aug-09	11.0	10.6
Sep-09	11.2	10.8
Oct-09	11.4	10.9
Nov-09	11.6	11.1
Dec-09	11.7	11.2
Jan-10	12.0	11.3
Feb-10	12.2	11.3
Mar-10	12.3	11.3
Apr-10	12.0	11.3
May-10	11.7	11.3
Jun-10	11.4	11.4
Jul-10	11.5	11.5
Aug-10	11.8	11.6
Sep-10	11.9	11.7
Oct-10	11.9	11.8
Nov-10	12.0	11.9
Dec-10	12.0	12.0
Source:  Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program, in
cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

When you look at the numbers, you realize that Scott's reliance on them may be a bit premature.

And these changes have nothing to do with the debate of actual workers vs. discouraged workers. For example, Florida's 9.9 percent unemployment rate is actually 10.8 percent if you include discouraged workers into the equation.

Now it is worth noting that a separate figure highlighted by Scott - the actual growth in the number of jobs - is derived from a separate survey of businesses. State economists say that between 10,000 to 15,000 businesses are questioned to get an idea on whether jobs are being added or lost.

While economists know these numbers are subject to change, they have gained a political currency in the last few years.

Former Gov. Charlie Crist, for example, praised a reported drop in unemployment that occurred in April, May and June of 2010. The new data shows that the drop never happened and in fact the unemployment rate remained flat in the spring of 2010 before climbing back up.

This allows Scott to say - as he has a couple of times now - that jobs were lost for "four straight years" until he came into office.

The question now is whether the revised numbers for 2011 will be as good as Scott has advertised them.

 

 

 

 

5 biggest questions of the 2012 session

Florida's GOP-controlled Legislature kicks off its annual session on Tuesday amid the backdrop of the looming Jan. 31 presidential primary, a governor still battling low poll numbers, and legislative leaders who so far have shown a desire to keep the agenda limited during a critical election year.

The two main jobs are redistricting and passing a budget, but even that's not guaranteed at this point.

Senate President Mike Haridopolos has talked about waiting until later in the year to pass a budget. And while there appears to be a push to pass redistricting plans quickly there remains a chance that legal challenges to the final product could force legislators into a special session at some later date to adopt different maps.

Here at this point are the 5 biggest questions of the session:

Will redistricting keep moving smoothly and quickly? In anticipation of potential legal challenges, the GOP-controlled Legislature has already begun to accelerate to a possible final vote on changes for both Congressional and legislative districts. The Senate is poised to vote out its maps within the first few days of the annual session.

So far the political rancor has been fairly minimal although that could change quickly. Some South Florida Republicans have already been complaining about the treatment of U.S. Rep. Allen West due to a proposed shift that could make his seat more competitive. The question is whether state legislators will heed the complaints and push onward - or will they engage in more tinkering which could spark even more infighting.

There hasn't been a loud chorus of threats of lawsuits or recriminations yet. But it's hard to believe that debate and arguments over redistricting won't heat up and bog down the process at some point.

Does the casino bill really have a chance of passing? There's no doubt that one of the more enticing storylines of the 2012 session is the fate of the mega-casino bill sponsored by Sen. Ellyn Bogdanoff and Rep. Eric Fresen.

In the last few weeks, the list of proponents and opponents has been growing (although Gov. Rick Scott has deliberately chosen to remain rather quiet about whether he would sign the bill).

After a series of workshops, Bogdanoff late last week filed a massive rewrite of the bill intended to try to win over critics and votes. The measure now includes a voter referendum option, including giving voters in local counties the option of deciding whether or not to let local dog and horse tracks add slot machines.

Usually high-profile legislative fights pitting deep-pocketed groups against each other result in nothing getting passed. One of the main axioms of the Florida Legislature is that it's 10 times easier to kill a bill than to pass a bill.

Right now many Capitol observers are anxious to see if the bill can actually make it out of its first committee and then actually get passed by the full Senate. The fact that the Florida House has shown no signs of seriously considering the bill has fed speculation that the legislation is doomed for this year.

Of course, sometimes major initiatives take more than one year (and when leadership changes). So part of the battle for this year may be just demonstrating to doubters that a fair number of legislators are willing to support the bill this time around. That could set the stage for its return in 2013.

What does Dean Cannon really want? The session is starting with a bit of uncertainty because Cannon has been reticent to discuss what he would like to see happen during his last session as House Speaker.

Cannon last year waited until the eve of session to let everyone know he wanted to pursue far-reaching changes to the judicial branch, including a proposal to break up the state Supreme Court into two separate branches. (In the end Cannon got a watered-down constitutional amendment that makes some changes but none as dramatic as he initially proposed.)

Heading into this session Cannon has basically insisted his main priorities are the budget and redistricting, or the two things that the state constitution requires the Legislature to do this year.

That gives Senate Republicans less leverage to use against Cannon in trying to get some of their priorities passed and makes it harder for dealmaking to occur. (And it's worth noting that Rep. Will Weatherford, R-Wesley Chapel and the incoming House Speaker has sponsored zero bills so far this year as well. So there's limited leverage against him as well.)

How serious is Gov. Rick Scott's budget veto threat? Last month Scott did a turnabout on school funding. In less than one year he has gone from advocating a 10 percent cut in funding for schools to pushing a $1 billion increase and threatening to veto the entire budget unless there is a "significant" increase.

Initially Scott would not say what a "significant" increase is. But in later interviews, he said he likes $1 billion.

Scott has said his push for more school funding came after spending months listening to Florida voters who have told him education is a top priority. It may have also something to do with that fact that some in Scott's inner circle think that education cuts may have contributed a big part to his lagging poll numbers. Some public polls have backed this up, pointing out that some of other Scott's initiatives, including drug testing welfare recipients is popular.

The governor, however, relied on deep budget cuts in hospitals and health care spending in order to free up the money needed to increase funding for schools while also filling a nearly $2 billion budget gap. Such deep cuts may prove to be a hard sell to GOP legislators who are getting lobbied heavily by hospital officials who warn that the cuts will lead to layoffs.

So legislators must decide to either find other cuts to meet Scott's school funding goals - or they must pare back the increase sought by the governor to something more manageable. A much less likely scenario is that legislative leaders could shrug off Scott's threat since Republicans hold a supermajority in both the House and Senate and override a veto.

One other solution, of course, is to hope for extra revenue. And that's one advantage of potentially waiting for voting on a budget. If the economy continues to slowly recover, there's a chance that it will be easier to meet Scott's goal and avoid a confrontation.

What issue not on everyone's radar screen now will blow up? This is a reoccuring question because nearly every year there is a legislative initiative that seemingly comes out of nowhere and dominates debate and headlines in the final days of the session.

Part of it is due to the fact that the rules allow legislators to change bills at a moment's notice. Past examples include controversial bills dealing with abortion and elections. There are also some bills lurking out there that could quickly dominate part of this year's narrative. Drug-testing for state employees and another stab at mandating E-Verify for employers are just two such measures.

With so much attention concentrated on redistricting, it's easy to imagine a scenario where attention quickly shifts to something else if redistricting passes as easily as legislative leaders expect. 

It seems that each session of the Florida Legislature is like a hurricane, with its path and intensity quite unlike the storm that preceded it.