Gov. Rick Scott - who has billed himself as Florida's jobs governor - says repeatedly that he receives a new grade every month when Florida's unemployment rates are released.
But maybe the grade Scott should get in his first year in office is an incomplete.
Why?
Because it turns out that the numbers that Scott relies on are nothing more than preliminary estimates based on a survey of 2,500 households.
Additionally, it is likely that the numbers will be changed in March.
Here's the full story on the benchmarking and process changes that could mean that the 2.1 percentage drop that Scott has praised may be inaccurate.
As the story points out economists and others who follow unemployment data know that the numbers are subject to revision.
Some of these changes are small, yet other revisions are quite substantial. For example, the reported unemployment rate in March 2010 was 12.3 percent. In March 2011 that rate was substantially changed and lowered to 11.3 percent.
Because of the change the December 2010 unemployment rate of 12 percent is now listed as the highest on record. (State unemployment rates date back to the '70s.)
Here's a look at how much the numbers changed the last two years from what they were initially reported.
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Florida Unemployment Rates (seasonally adjusted) |
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Before Benchmark Compared to After Benchmark January 2009 to December 2010 |
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Unemployment Rates |
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Month/Year |
Before Benchmark |
After Benchmark (current) |
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Jan-09 |
8.7 |
8.5 |
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Feb-09 |
9.2 |
9.0 |
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Mar-09 |
9.6 |
9.4 |
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Apr-09 |
9.9 |
9.7 |
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May-09 |
10.2 |
10.0 |
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Jun-09 |
10.5 |
10.2 |
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Jul-09 |
10.8 |
10.5 |
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Aug-09 |
11.0 |
10.6 |
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Sep-09 |
11.2 |
10.8 |
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Oct-09 |
11.4 |
10.9 |
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Nov-09 |
11.6 |
11.1 |
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Dec-09 |
11.7 |
11.2 |
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Jan-10 |
12.0 |
11.3 |
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Feb-10 |
12.2 |
11.3 |
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Mar-10 |
12.3 |
11.3 |
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Apr-10 |
12.0 |
11.3 |
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May-10 |
11.7 |
11.3 |
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Jun-10 |
11.4 |
11.4 |
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Jul-10 |
11.5 |
11.5 |
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Aug-10 |
11.8 |
11.6 |
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Sep-10 |
11.9 |
11.7 |
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Oct-10 |
11.9 |
11.8 |
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Nov-10 |
12.0 |
11.9 |
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Dec-10 |
12.0 |
12.0 |
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Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program, in |
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cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics. |
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When you look at the numbers, you realize that Scott's reliance on them may be a bit premature.
And these changes have nothing to do with the debate of actual workers vs. discouraged workers. For example, Florida's 9.9 percent unemployment rate is actually 10.8 percent if you include discouraged workers into the equation.
Now it is worth noting that a separate figure highlighted by Scott - the actual growth in the number of jobs - is derived from a separate survey of businesses. State economists say that between 10,000 to 15,000 businesses are questioned to get an idea on whether jobs are being added or lost.
While economists know these numbers are subject to change, they have gained a political currency in the last few years.
Former Gov. Charlie Crist, for example, praised a reported drop in unemployment that occurred in April, May and June of 2010. The new data shows that the drop never happened and in fact the unemployment rate remained flat in the spring of 2010 before climbing back up.
This allows Scott to say - as he has a couple of times now - that jobs were lost for "four straight years" until he came into office.
The question now is whether the revised numbers for 2011 will be as good as Scott has advertised them.
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