The Fine Print

Scott's LG dilemma

The state of Florida has been without a lieutenant governor since mid-March.

Don't look for that to change anytime too soon.

And that plain fact raises interesting questions about the state constitution and Scott's re-election campaign.

As most people know Lt. Gov. Jennifer Carroll abruptly resigned in March after she was questioned by law-enforcement agents about the work she had done for Allied Veterans of the World. Carroll was questioned right before authorities arrested nearly 60 people for being part of an illegal gambling ring.

Carroll would later tell media outlets that she was forced to resign almost immediately after she was questioned even though she insists she has done nothing wrong. So far she has not been accused of any wrongdoing.

The decision to force Carroll out gave the Scott administration - and more importantly the Scott re-election campaign - an opportunity to do a bit of a reboot.

Carroll it could be argued had already become a bit of a liability due to a history of inopportune remarks (such as the lesbians don't look like me comment) - although there were those who also insisted she is very well-liked among the Republican conservative base.

Since then there has been a steady stream of speculation about who Scott would pick for LG ranging from state representatives such as Dana Young (plausible) and Anitere Flores (understandable but unlikely) to former U.S. Rep. Allen West (absolutely not).

Here's what it is clear: Scott, the former CEO used to running the show by himself, appears to be in no hurry.

First Scott said that he would wait until after session was over. He then shuttered the lieutenant governor's office and required the handful of employees in the office to find work elsewhere.

Now the governor is deciding what to veto from a proposed $74.5 million budget. He is also going on a trade mission next week to Chile.It is unlikely Scott will name a LG before he leaves the country - meaning that Attorney General Pam Bondi will become governor if something should happen to him.

And that's where the constitutional dilemma comes in.

The state constitution states that there "shall be a lieutenant governor."

It's a clause that has been in the state constitution since 1968. Between 1885 and that time the person next-in-line to become governor was the Senate President. 

Charley Johns, whose name became synonymous with the "Johns Committee" or the legislative panel that investigated communists and gays in the state university system, was Senate President at the time that Gov. Dan McCarty died in office in September 1953. Johns served as governor until Jan. 1955. He was thwarted in his bid to serve out the remainder of McCarty's term when LeRoy Collins defeated him in the 1954 Democratic primary.

The constitution, however, is silent on what happens if there is a vacancy in the office of lieutenant governor. That's left to state law. FS. 14.055 merely states that "upon vacancy the governor shall appoint a successor who shall serve for the remainder of the term..."

The last time a lieutenant governor stepped down it was Frank Brogan leaving shortly after he and Jeb Bush were re-elected in 2002. Brogan sought the presidency of Florida Atlantic University just days after the swearing-in. By the start of March Toni Jennings had been sworn in as a successor.

But because there's no exact time line it seems the governor will likely name a LG when the time is right and can help him as he moves toward re-election. (Just as an aside - those close to "Scott World" say they expect the governor to pick an LG who will be on the 2014 ballot with him. Scott could have, if he wanted, picked someone to serve as a caretaker for the next 18 months and then name someone new to run with him for a new term.)

That means that Scott - unless someone sues him and demands he pick a lieutenant governor sooner - can glide towards a pick sometime over the next few weeks or even months.

He's got a busy schedule for this month and June (including a trade mission trip to Paris for its airshow.) Scott in other words will sign bills, hold bill signing ceremonies, and then he can pick a LG to create some potential positive buzz.

He's got room to do it since still now there are no formidable Democratic opponents taking any of the limelight away from him.

A complicating factor, of course, with all of this is those most interested in winning the job of LG are not the kind of people who already have a large amount of attention themselves. Jennings was a great grab for Bush because she had served back-to-back terms as Senate president and was no longer in office. Jennings gave Bush a go-to person to help lobby the Legislature, but she was able to do the job without having to worry about campaigning and fund-raising. Bush wanted Jennings to run for governor, but she declined and left the door open for Charlie Crist to eventually win the job.

It makes sense to look at legislators since they know about campaigning, but for many of them becoming lieutenant governor would put them in a more prominent position.

But since Scott must pick someone who will help his campaign it makes sense to look at people outside the Tallahassee bubble as well.

Which is why it is also understandable why Scott doesn't plan to move too fast.

Expenses already climbing in Scott re-election effort

A new installment of Inside the Tallahassee bubble news...

EXPENSES ALREADY CLIMBING IN SCOTT RE-ELECTION EFFORT

Here's an interesting couple of tidbits that jumped out in going through last week's campaign finance reports.

One could argue that the bid for Scott's re-election effort is already getting plenty expensive even though the Democratic field remains somewhat unsettled amid ongoing speculation about Charlie Crist and U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson.

Consider this:

The company run by Scott's main political consultant - Tony Fabrizio - has already been paid nearly $600,000 by the Republican Party of Florida since last August. This includes a $170,000 payment in December and another $277,000 payment in March for "polling" according to RPOF campaign finance reports filed with the state.

On top of that Scott's own electioneering communication organization _ Let's Get to Work _ also stroked a $32,150 check for Fabrizio's firm to pay for an "opinion survey."

Records also show that Let's Get to Work in just the last quarter paid Forward Strategies, the company run by well-known fundraiser Meredith O'Rourke, more than $110,000. O'Rourke of course was a prime fundraiser for Crist back when he was a Republican. She was pushed aside from her role as an RPOF fundraiser during the unpleasantness involving disgraced former chairman Jim Greer.

Of course one could argue that Scott is also piling up a large amount of cash in advance of what could be a bruising fight. It's just interesting to note the amount of money already going to the effort even before the Democrats have a nominee.

NON-EXISTENT PATRONIS-GAETZ FEUD?

Rep. Jimmy Patronis told his hometown newspaper late last week that as far as he knows there is no looming rivalry between himself and Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fort Walton Beach over the state Senate seat now held by Senate President Don Gaetz. Patronis has already filed for the seat _ which comes open in 2016 _ while Matt Gaetz has filed for re-election next year.

"There’s nowhere I’ve seen it documented — both publicly or through social media — that would give me anything to believe that he is intending on running for his dad’s Senate seat,” he told the Panama City News Herald.

Patronis made this comment in the wake of a stream of comments from Gaetz on his Twitter feed where he has questioned Patronis' votes and stances on a line of issues.

But Patronis himself helped fuel the fire of this rivalry on the House floor.

During a debate on a Gaetz-sponsored bill repealing the state law that requires that gas contain ethanol Patronis got up to tout how he had pushed a bill the previous year that removed penalties for gas stations that ignore the mandate.

He said he would support the Gaetz bill but then added this dig: "I don't know if it really makes a difference."

Another key moment on Friday: Gaetz and Patronis were two of the four no votes on the House bill that would allow U.S. born children of illegal immigrants to receive in-state tuition rates at state colleges and universities. One of the other no votes _ Rep. Dennis Baxley _ wound up changing his no vote to a yes after the fact and said he misunderstood what the bill did.

The bill was a top priority for House Speaker Will Weatherford, who urged its passage at the start of the year.

A no vote coming from two Republicans representing roughly the same part of the Panhandle might cause some to wonder whether there was a fear that the vote could wind up on mailer. Or maybe that's reading too much into it.

CAN'T BUY ME LOVE:

The Florida chapter of one of the main union for state workers contributed more than $21,000 to legislative candidates before the start of this year's session. This included a maximum $500 donation to 17 Republicans in the House and Senate.

But all nine GOP House members who received a contribution from the Amercian Federation of State, Council and Municipal Employees Council 79 voted in favor of an amendment sponsored by Rep. Seth McKeel, R-Lakeland, that cut the amount of a proposed state worker pay raise from $1,400 to $1,000. The amendment was approved over the sharp objections of Democrats.

The lone no vote on the amendment was Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fort Walton Beach.

Perhaps the most interesting vote in favor of the proposal came from Rep. Halsey Beshears, R-Monticello.

That's because Beshears ran a memorable campaign ad last fall entitled "Do What's Right" where Beshears said that as businessman he understood the value of treating employees right: "Here we rely on thousands of great men and women to contribute to our local economy. We need to grow it and make it stronger. That's why we need to be more supportive of our hard-working state employees."

 

 

 

How can Rick Scott regain momentum in 2013?

Amid the last round of lackluster poll numbers for Gov. Rick Scott political consultant Tony Fabrizio in mid-December wrote a one-page memo where he argued that it was way too early for people to write off Scott's chances for a second term.

Fabrizio used an interesting analogy: If President Barack Obama could win Florida a second time so could Scott. Download 12-19-12 Memo on Q Poll

 "Anyone who dismisses Governor Scott and his chances does so at their own peril. Governor Scott has nearly a year longer to reverse negative numbers similar to what the President had, therefore it seems irresponsible and hasty to count the governor out from making an equal, if not stronger, turn around."

Democrats this past weekend loudly announced that Scott's defeat will be their primary focus in the next cycle. The challenge of the Democrats, however, will be the ability of the party to have the resources to compete with what could be a very expensive race. And make no mistake: There are some in "Scott world" who are not troubled by former Gov. Charlie Crist as the nominee. That's because this will allow the campaign team to draw a clear contrast, especially when it comes to comparing how the state's economy fared under Crist and how it has fared under Scott.

It could also be argued that some of Scott's recent policy initiatives on tuition, voting and now teacher pay raises are aimed squarely at muting Crist on those same issues. Crist for example in 2009 signed the bill that gave universities in Florida the ability to raise tuition up to 15 percent a year until Florida's tuition rates reach the national average. Contrast that to Scott's firm insistence that tuition be held flat.

But the central question remains: What can Scott do on his own to turn things around in the coming year and heading into 2014?

The plain fact is that governors - unlike the president - have a much more limited fashion in which to engage with the public and convince them they are doing a good job.

One way is completely out of Scott's control: Show leadership through a crisis such as a natural disaster. Part of the enduring legacy - for example - of former Gov. Jeb Bush is the way he dealt with the wave of hurricanes that hit the state.

The difficulty for Scott rebuilding his brand and image in the second half of his term is that in many ways he's already been like three different governors.

Thanks to three different chiefs of staff he has approached governing, his agenda and his interaction with the press in distinct ways.

The first phase of Scott's governorship - where he was surrounded by people who helped his campaign including defacto chief of staff Mary Anne Carter - the governor staked out positions that excited the base of GOP voters who propelled him in the Republican primary and helped him get a narrow win over Democrat Alex Sink. He unveiled a budget that cut funding for education, he rejected billions in federal aid for high speed rail, he clashed with the Florida Legislature and his staff had a bunker mentality with the press.

The second phase under Steve MacNamara included a decision to have Scott engage in a two-way strategy with the press: Open up more to the mainstream media while also appearing on conservative talk radio shows to keep the base engaged. Also put in place was a more calculated strategy of trying to work with the Legislature. Take on the winnable battles like auto insurance reforms, avoid direct engagement (like in casino gambling) on issues that have an uncertain chance of success. Scott jettisoned parts of his campaign agenda such as pushing tough new laws on immigration. He became more accommodating to legislative initiatives and even embraced some of them such as the creation of Florida Polytechnic University. And Scott tried to undo the damage caused in the first phase by pushing for a funding increase in education.

Now with current chief of staff Adam Hollingsworth we have the third phase. Yet another strategy with the press. There are attempts to appear less rigid and more open to dialogue with opponents (hence the "discussions" over Obamacare with Washington D.C. or the dinner with top officials with the Florida Education Association.) And there's even a full 180-turn on hot topics such as voting where Scott - who signed the law that cut early voting days and defended it court - is now advocating an expansion of early voting beyond what was previously in place.

Moving ahead then here's the avenues left for Scott to try to change his trajectory with voters (outside the hope that the economy will continue to grow and that Scott will get the credit.)

SCOTT'S LEGISLATIVE AGENDA: Like it or not Scott's third year in office will in many ways revolve around what he accomplishes this spring. He will be judged by how much of his agenda is accepted or rejected by the GOP-controlled Legislature. Scott this week will present a budget that in many ways will attempt to highlight his new priorities, such as a flat across the board pay raise for teachers, a freeze on university tuition hikes and a cut in sales taxes for the purchase of equipment used in manufacturing. (More on this later this week)

But it should not be assumed that top lawmakers will bend to Scott's wishes as evidenced by the initial lackluster enthusiasm given Scott's teacher pay raise proposal. And we still don't have a clear idea on what will happen to the implementation of Obamacare, especially on expansion of Medicaid that is now an optional part of the federal health care overhaul. If Scott rejects expansion - which appears likely given his recent statements - will lawmakers buck him and dare the governor to veto it?

Scott's trump card, of course, is that he has the ability to shoot down any legislative proposals that he dislikes and he can use that as leverage to get what he needs.

Given Scott's recent populist turn on voting and teacher pay raises it will be interesting to see if he uses the veto pen as a way to distinguish himself from the Legislature. For example what does the governor do if a bill raising insurance rates for the 1.3 million customers of Citizens Property Insurance were to cross his desk on the eve of this year's hurricane season?

KEEP UP OPPOSITION TO THE PRESIDENT: In some ways Scott was actually better served by having President Barack Obama getting re-elected than having Republican Mitt Romney win. The down side to Obama's re-election is that the president and his allies have the capacity to assist the campaign of someone like newly-minted Democrat Crist. But Obama in the White House gives Scott - and the Republicans in general - something to rail about heading into 2014. You can see the narrative: "I stood up to the president on government controlled health care, we improved the economy without his help, we will not go along with his agenda on guns." You get the picture. And if Obama's numbers go underwater again then Scott gets to link Crist to the president.

SCOTT'S MEDIA STRATEGY: Largely unnoticed by the general public Scott's media strategy has in fact been altered with the entrance of new communications director Melissa Sellers. That's not to say that everything has been smooth sailing (witness the brouhaha over the return of Scott's dog Reagan.) But the press office's new strategy does appear to be one of cooperation (when it benefits the Scott agenda) and less direct confrontation. This means giving some in the press access in the hopes it will create a story that bolsters the governor.

This doesn't mean, however, that the press office is passive. Far from it.

The governor's office appears to be engaged in trying to get Scott's message out (which is amplified by the Republican Party of Florida, whose media operation is lead by former communications director Brian Burgess). It is then left to some of the agencies to push back against stories that the Scott administration does not agree with. Several agencies, for example, in recent months have put out press releases sent to all media outlets that attempt to debunk stories and even editorials that have appeared. (The changes at the Department of Environmental Protection being a key example.)

Meanwhile, the governor's press office is tracking media coverage even more closer than ever before. Emails show that the governor's entire staff is now getting "news alerts" that include snippets of stories and even tweets by capitol press corps reporters just moments after they hit the web and Twitter.

So will it all add up?

It's hard to say.

Part of the difficulty for those working for Scott is some of the missteps in the first two years have been self-inflicted. Democrats may not like some of Scott's policy initiatives but some of them have polled well with the general public i.e. drug testing for welfare recipients.

Those who have dealings with Scott will tell you up front that he studies details and takes times to understand complex policy issues.

But in many ways he has had to "grow up" in public and has drawn attention in ways he probably didn't intend (such as the incident with the King of Spain). In other instances, his staff did not appear to anticipate the political fallout over a decision (i.e. the cutting of the education budget, the signing of the Cuba-crackdown bill.)

The balancing act in the months ahead is whether Scott can find success with the Legislature and the economy and finally reverse his flat-lining poll numbers. Because even during a campaign there's only so much love money can buy.

Partisan wrangling, early voting, and limits on the power of the governor

So what constitutes an emergency?

Do long lines at a polling place, or the possibility of an election meltdown because of the surge in voting crowds constitute an emergency? And does the governor have the power to change that?

That in essence is one of the questions raised by the tug-of-war that has erupted in the last two days over early voting.

Gov. Rick Scott was asked Thursday by former state senator Dan Gelber, the Florida Democratic Party and the League of Women Voters to extend this year's period of early voting through Sunday instead of having it end at 7 p.m. on Saturday night as it now scheduled.

In his own letter Gelber warned that the long ballot (due largely to the Legislature placing the entire text of amendments on it) and the long lines was causing "greater dislocation" at the polls then in 2008. That was the year that former Gov. Charlie Crist wrote an executive order that resulted in early voting hours being extended beyond the statutory limit of 96 hours.

Scott, who signed the law in 2011 that cut the number of early voting days back from a maximum of 14 days to the current 8 days, told reporters on Thursday night that he would not grant the request.

Obviously there is a great deal of partisan wrangling going on here.

In the past year there have been federal lawsuits that challenged the reduction in early voting days. And the lawyers for the Legislature were hard pressed to come up with an explanation of why the early voting days were cut to begin with. In one memorable exchange in court earlier this year a federal judge said there was nothing in the record that showed him any good reason for the decision made by lawmakers to cut back on early voting.

Attorney George Meros at that hearing in Jacksonville contended that legislators could have had private conversations with election supervisors that led to that decision. This past week The Palm Beach Post reported that one of the architects of the law that cut back early voting helped write it after consultation with Republican Party officials.

But let's go back to 2008.

Crist's action at the time to extend early voting was met with disbelief from members of his own party. (Remember, he was still a Republican.) And just as importantly legislative leaders _ including then-House Speaker Marco Rubio _ were a bit skeptical of the legal reasoning that Crist used to extend early voting.

In essence, Crist declared that a "state of emergency" existed due to long lines at early voting locations. He used his emergency powers to order supervisors to keep polling places open. Download Executive_Order_Number_08_217

In his order Crist said that there is "a possibility that election officials will be unable to conduct an orderly election and thus residents in our state could be deprived of a meaningful opportunity to vote." So Crist basically used the power that the governor uses when there is a hurricane or other natural disaster to waive a state law.

I have already written in the past how Crist expanded the use of executive power beyond what traditionally had been done by previous governors, even former Gov. Jeb Bush.

The decision by Crist to extend early voting hours was seen by some Republicans as a decision that helped Barack Obama win Florida.

But at the time Rubio and other top Republicans were reluctant to go into court to challenge the executive order. Part of the problem was timing since the decision came just days before the election and it would have been hard to get a judge to halt the extended hours.

Gelber for his part has argued that the prospect of a problem with an election does in fact constitute an emergency. Plus, he cites the fact that Bush did it as well.

That's true but Bush extended voting hours by 2 hours on Election Day because of problems during the 2002 primary with late opening precincts and ballots that wouldn't scan.

Many major counties were using new voting machines for the first time that had put in place in the wake of the chaotic 2000 presidential election where the vote in Florida wasn't settled until more than a month after Election Day.

In one notable case during that primary former U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno _ who was running in the Democratic primary for governor _ had to wait to vote at her own polling place in Miami-Dade County because of problems with the machines.

Now if Election Day turns into a major hassle _ and there are problems at the polling places _ you can expect Democrats to tell Scott "I told you so" and they will use it as ammunition against him on the 2014 campaign trail.

But given the nature of this election you would have to wonder if Scott would have been challenged even if he did issue an executive order.

This time around _ unlike four years ago _ the election result is very much in doubt and it's hard to imagine either side taking a pass on this. At least, however, we would have gotten a judge to decide the extent of the governor's emergency powers.

(Editor note: Sorry for the lack of entries on this blog in the last few weeks. Look for that change in the days and weeks ahead. I truly do appreciate all of those who have enjoyed this blog _ and given me compliments on it since launching it three years ago. My plan is use it to augment _ and go beyond the stories that I do for The Associated Press.)

Rick Scott: Re-education, reboot or road to victory?

If there appears to be one thing that Gov. Rick Scott did during his first 18 months in office that he probably wishes he could take back it is his decision to recommend a major cut to education funding shortly after he was sworn into office.

Scott this week will embark on a "listening tour" where he will hear from teachers, parents and students on how to improve the education system. Scott will even have a student video crew follow him around and plans to have a blog where he documents what he is doing.

The announcement of the "listening tour" is the latest in a series of steps taken this year where Scott has tried to emphasize he cares about education. Others of course include his recent comments that he wants to make sure that teachers don't teach to the state's high-stakes test (even though there is a state law that prohibits just that) as well as his decision this past spring to push a budget that increased funding to public schools by roughly $1 billion.

The commencement of the listening tour comes when the Scott administration is now moving into what can arguably be called its third phase. He's now on his third chief-of-staff and the departures of communications director Brian Burgess and legislative affairs director Jon Costello mean that for the most part those who played a role in Scott's campaign are no longer left on the inside of the administration.

Burgess's move to the Republican Party of Florida should be seen clearly as the first step in preparing for the re-election battle that lies ahead in 2014. The party has already shown a willingness under Lenny Curry's chairmanship to spend money to bolster Scott's image. The placement of Burgess with the RPOF should be seen as a sign that this effort will continue and likely accelerate once the crucial fall elections are over with.

But in order to position himself for the next election Scott needs to connect with the Florida voters - and families - that care about education. Hence the need to show that this is an issue that he is deeply engaged with (and undo the damage caused by the budget cuts along the way.)

The only complication with all of this is that a lot of other prominent figures in Florida - notably former Gov. Jeb Bush - but also incoming House Speaker Will Weatherford and incoming Senate President Don Gaetz have their own education agendas.

When he was running for governor initially, Scott went all-in on the school choice front.

He pledged support to universal vouchers despite murky legal questions surrounding the concept. The governor, however, backed off when it became apparent that even his GOP allies were reluctant to embrace the idea given both the financial and legal consequences. (An amendment placed on this year's ballot would end the legal hurdles if 60 percent of voters say yes.)

Scott's team has already clashed with some in the Bush universe when the governor's people refused to back then-Education Commissioner Eric Smith. Smith resigned which led to a bumpy search for a successor and the decision to choose Gerard Robinson.

Now Robinson is gone as is the chairman for the State Board of Education who once was Bush's chief of staff. Word is that Robinson's decision to leave was completely voluntary, but problems with administration of changes to Florida's test-based grading system helped whip up considerable opposition to the continued reliance of high-stakes test such as the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test.

The question for Scott is where does he goes next after his "listening tour."

The governor this past year supported the controversial parental trigger bill (which is a priority for former Gov. Bush) and there are signs it will be brought back again in the spring after its narrow defeat in the Florida Senate. (The governor's office this summer had a meeting to discuss it according to Project Sunburst emails.)

The trigger bill is the one that would give parents the ability to change the structure of a school if it remains low-performing. Critics contend that the bill is a back-door way for charter school management companies to gain control of public schools.

Scott could also likely have the opportunity to set aside more funding to both K-12 and higher education in 2013 if the current fiscal outlook remains positive. (The initial positive forecast even contemplates that legislators will restore the $300 million cut from state universities this past year.)

But the governor will also have to decide how he will work with both Gaetz and Weatherford.

Weatherford - a big proponent of providing vouchers to low-income children - would be reluctant to do anything that moves Florida away from the path that has been on the last decade.

And both Weatherford and Gaetz has voiced support for extensive reforms to higher education although we have not yet seen anything specific yet.

Scott, however, has decided he can't afford to wait when it comes to start talking about education.

His decision comes at time when speculation is mounting that Gov. Charlie Crist could challenge him in 2014.

Crist, who was on the campaign trail with President Barack Obama this week, has already been featured in ads for his law firm Morgan & Morgan where he stresses the importance of teachers and urges people "to thank a teacher today."

Crist himself once backed many of the school reforms put in place by Bush but during his final year in office he vetoed the teacher tenure bill that Scott signed into law the following year.

If Crist does run he will do so with the likely backing of the teachers union. What Scott has to learn in the next few weeks and months is whether or not he can come up with (yet another) lesson plan that will allow him to contend that he cares about education just as much as other governors.

Can Charlie Crist really beat Rick Scott?

The signs that Charlie Crist could run for governor in two years appear to be everywhere, both figuratively and literally.

There are Charlie Crist billboards on the highways touting his current employer Morgan & Morgan. There was the recent Morgan & Morgan television ad where the former governor touts the virtues of teachers. There was Crist's endorsement of Democrat Bill Nelson for U.S. Senate as well as his decision to criticize the non-U.S. citizen voter purge being pushed by current Gov. Rick Scott.

and now: A hearty endorsement of President Barack Obama by the man who once proudly called himself a "Ronald Reagan Republican" and who once tore into then-Gov. Lawton Chiles after Chiles ran a bruising campaign to knock off Jeb Bush. Crist will also speak at the upcoming Democratic National Convention.

The timing of Crist's endorsement - which appeared in an op-ed of the pages of his hometown newspaper - was designed to coincide with the start of the Republican National Convention in Tampa.

Republicans expressed outrage on Sunday at the latest "betrayal" by Crist, who switched from GOP to independent before his failed run for U.S. Senate in 2010.

But if you talk to Republicans - and those in "Scott World" - there is actually a quiet confidence about the scenario of Scott taking on Crist during the 2014 elections.

First off, Crist - even with the potential backing of the White House (should Obama get re-elected)- will not have a clear path to a Democratic nomination. There are many Democrats who still view Crist with suspicion.

Then there is the reality that if Crist makes it on the ballot as a Democrat he will have to fight in a campaign where he gets significantly outspent by the incumbent governor. Barring some strange sequence of events such as where U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio decides to run for governor Scott will be the 2014 nominee.

That means the firepower of the party - which controls all of state government - will be aimed squarely at Crist.

For the 2014 elections, there will be no higher priority for the Republican Party of Florida than to re-elect Scott and destroy Crist.

The topics will be numerous, but expect the biggest contrast to be an ad that shows that Florida's unemployment rate rose significantly while Crist was in office. He will be portrayed as someone who was out-of-touch and indifferent while the state's economy imploded.

Then there's his political reinventions - and maybe even the unpleasantness of former RPOF chairman Jim Greer. (The Greer ads will basically point out that it was Crist who gave him the keys to the kingdom - and control of the party bank account.)

The one-plus for Crist is that his confrontation with Scott could be one of the biggest political stories of 2014 and could get plenty of earned media.

One big question, however, is whether or not Scott and Republicans will even wait until 2014 to seriously go after Crist.

RPOF Chairman Lenny Curry has already taken shots at Crist in blast emails. There have likely been early discussions about whether or not to run ads going after Crist. (Crist could find himself targeted by ads that do not have to follow any disclosure requirements since he is a public figure but not a candidate.)

That all said - this doesn't mean a Crist candidacy guarantees Scott an easy walk back into the governor's mansion.

Scott remains a polarizing figure who is unlikely to get widespread support from teachers, state workers, firefighters and police. He is not a great speaker and sometimes he appears ill at ease dealing with crowds.

The above chart shows why there remains a bit of worry in "Scott world."

You can quibble if you want about Quinnipiac University and its polls but the issue isn't one poll. It's the overall trend line that shows over his first 18 months in office Scott has really been unable to move his approval numbers much above 40 percent. The reasons are clear: He is deeply disliked by Democrats and his numbers among independents are way underwater.

It's the reason that the RPOF has spent at least $1 million - and climbing - on ads touting Scott this year despite other pressing elections on the near horizon.

It's why Curry puts out emails to the Republican establishment  touting the governor's accomplishments on the economy - even though presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney is running ads raising doubts about Florida's economy under Obama.

But that may be why taking on Crist could be a welcome scenario for those trying to get Scott re-elected.

While Crist is probably more likeable than Scott the Republicans can make the election a referendum on Crist's term as governor. Instead of defending Scott's record they get to attack Crist's. And that may prove to be a much easier task than going after a fresh face.

Guess what part of the budget isn't getting cut under Gov. Rick Scott?

For the last seven years the Florida Department of Law Enforcement has compiled an annual report that measures how much money the state spends on protective services for the governor - as well as how much the state spent on security guarding other important visitors.

And it turns out that during the first full year where Rick Scott was governor the cost increased to nearly $2.5 million. That was an increase of nearly $264,000 from the previous fiscal year which covered six months when Charlie Crist was still governor.

It was also the highest total in the seven years FDLE has been keeping track of the expenses in this format.

Here's the AP story on the annual report which includes a statement from FDLE regarding the increased expenses under Scott.

Here's a copy of this year's annual FDLE report: Download Transportation and Protective Services Report 2011-2012 FINAL

One of the interesting highlights of the report is the transportation/expenditures costs for guarding Scott climbed nearly $100,000 from the previous year.

Scott, as you may recall, got rid of the state airplane and now uses his own private jet for many of his travels across the state.

A spokeswoman for FDLE pointed out that Scott does not charge the state when an agent accompanies him on the plane but did not provide details on why the transportation costs went up so much. It is also worth noting that during the 2011-12 fiscal year Scott did take three trips abroad to Brazil, Israel and Spain where he was accompanied by FDLE agents.

The report also shows that the overall cost for security increased this past year even though the cost of guarding governors and other visitors declined by $63,000.

Still the state spent nearly $295,000 providing security for 79 security details including ones for Gov. Bobby Jindal, Gov. Nikki Haley, Gov. Jack Martell, First Lady Michelle Obama and Attorney General Pam Bondi.

That cost also includes more than $55,000 FDLE spent on costs associated with the Republican Governors Association conference held last winter in Orlando.

Bondi got a security detail when she attended the oral arguments before the U.S. Supreme Court back in March. The cost to Florida taxpayers was $15,539.

Florida taxpayers also spent nearly $18,000 for five visits by Jindal to Florida - and more than $2,200 for a visit by members of his family.

The cost for two visits by the First Lady were just under $1,000.

Visits by Markell and his family cost more than $5,800, while the expenses of providing security for three visits by Haley and her family cost $13,460.

The report does not provide a copious amount of details about the expenses - other than breaking them up into salary costs, transportation and expenses and listing the trip as either "official" or "personal."

Could any of these bills get vetoed by Gov. Rick Scott?

Gov. Rick Scott on Wednesday will sign several bills that consist of the "jobs agenda" that he outlined last fall.

And that's when it will start to get interesting.

There have been few surprises so far since the 2012 session ended. Scott signed the "inspirational messages" bill and this latest batch of legislation includes an overhaul of the unemployment compensation system and tax breaks, including another small cut of the state's corporate income tax.

But in the next few weeks Scott will sort out the remaining bills from this year and figure out whether or not he plans to go along with many of the ideas that his GOP colleagues in the Legislature acted on.

Not counting his budget vetoes, Scott last year vetoed 10 bills sent to him by state lawmakers, which is actually on par, or even a little bit below other governors in recent years.

Gov. Charlie Crist - who was at war with lawmakers during his independent bid for U.S. Senate in 2010 - vetoed 17 bills his final year in office (several of which were later overridden) and 18 bills in 2007. Back in 2005 then Gov. Jeb Bush a.k.a. "Veto Corleone" nixed some 36 bills sent to him by the Legislature.

It was Bush who told Scott in an email before he became governor that it was okay to veto "stupid bills."

Here then are some bills to watch Scott on in the next few days and weeks:

HB 5301: Back when Scott was campaigning against Bill McCollum in the GOP primary in 2010 he actually came out against what he called mandates being imposed on local governments. Scott told a group of business leaders in Panama City that he did not support strict limits on spending and taxes for local governments, saying at the time "I believe that what Tallahassee should be doing is dealing with Tallahassee issues." 

But sitting on his desk is a budget conforming bill that contains a contentious provision that withholds money from counties in an effort to collect $325 million in contested past-due Medicaid billings. County governments have argued this is yet another mandate, an argument that should have some resonance with Scott.

This legislation, however, includes several other changes, including a limit on how many times Medicaid will pay for hospital emergency room visits for non-pregnant adults and a provision that would allow the children of state employees to be enrolled in the state's subsidized KidCare program. Scott must act on this bill this week but there are signs that he will let it become law because it is tied to the state budget. (UPDATE: Scott signed the bill, although in a letter the governor tried to assuage counties that the state would "work diligently" to make sure that all the billings are valid and accurate. Counties, meanwhile, sharply criticized the decision as a "body blow" to taxpayers.)

HB 7129: This is the tuition bill for the University of Florida and Florida State University. If it becomes law the legislation would allow these two research universities to raise tuition annually above the existing 15 percent cap that now exists in state law. The logic behind the bill - which was a top priority for House Speaker Dean Cannon - is to give UF and FSU the financial resources to make themselves more nationally competitive. But the bill also clashes with Scott's oft-repeated line that tuition should not go up this year and that universities ought to give him more examples of spending existing money wisely before hiking tuition. (UPDATE: Scott vetoed this legislation saying it would increase the debt burden of students.

SB 1994: The Florida Polytechnic University bill. This is the legislation pushed by Sen. J.D. Alexander that would officially divorce the Lakeland branch campus of the University of South Florida and turn into the state's 12th public university. Scott so far has refused to take a stance on the creation of a new school, but has expressed skepticism about it. The problem for Scott, however, is if vetoes the bill then he wipes out $16 million in funding, including $6 million for the USF College of Pharmacy and $10 million to allow current USF Polytechnic students to complete their degrees at USF. (UPDATE: In a bit of surprise, Scott signed this legislation into law.)

HB 7117: This is an energy bill that was championed by Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam. But the legislation - which includes $16 million in renewable energy tax credits - has come under fire by several different groups, including conservative organizations as well as the Florida Renewable Energy Producers Association. Scott during his first two years in office has continued to be skeptical about energy issues, although his main objection has centered around proposals that would raise utility bills in order to pay for renewable energy. (UPDATE: Scott signed this law although he expressed concerned about some of the provisions.)

HB 5011: State Information Technology. For most people outside of Tallahassee, this bill means little. But it's a big deal for the lobbyists and others who make a living off the millions spent by the state on technology. This bill blows up an existing state agency - the Agency for Enterprise Information Technology - and creates a new agency called the Agency for State Technology which reports to the governor and Cabinet. For those who aren't keeping count this would be the third reconfiguration of how the state handles technology issues in the last decade. The legislation also halts and repeals an already begun process to consolidate the state's email service. Rep. Denise Grimsley, the House budget chief, defended the move to get rid of the email consolidation, contending it would wind up costing the state more than anticipated. But it's worth pointing out that Scott himself early on wondered aloud why state government had multiple email accounts as opposed to the way that most businesses handle it. (UPDATE: Scott vetoed the bill.)

HB 945: Broadband Internet Service. This is another bill that not a lot of people kept an eye on. It transfers a federal stimulus-backed program from one state agency to another. But the legislation was pushed into law at the urging of lobbyists who work for a vendor that held a state contract that was not renewed. The Associated Press already reported that the legislative proposal was so closely aligned with the lobbying firm of former Republican Party of Florida chairman Al Cardenas that the Senate bill sponsor referred questions about the bill to a lobbyist working for Cardenas. That same AP story pointed out that the state agency now in control of the program has warned internally that the transfer will require federal approval and could put millions in federal grants in jeopardy. (UPDATE: This bill was signed by the governor.)

HB 937: Legal notices. Just consider this one a bit of a hunch. Scott of course famously shunned newspaper editorial boards during his 2010 campaign for governor. But since that time he has actually taken a keen interest in the news industry, including recent business moves in Florida such as the decision by Halifax Media to acquire papers owned by the New York Times Company. This legislation is aimed at ending a few years of battle over the future of legal notices. The bill requires the online listing of legal notices for no extra charge, but also keeps them in printed newspapers. In previous years legislators had tried to end the use of printed legal notices completely. The final product is supported by the Florida Press Association so it will be interesting to see how the governor responds.

One small part of Rick Scott's legacy as governor

It didn't get a lot of ink last Friday.

But along with a school voucher bill and a school prayer bill Gov. Rick Scott also signed into law a piece of legislation that will likely become a small part of his legacy as governor.

Scott quietly signed HB 1305, the bill that arose out of last summer's disclosure that Scott's transition team had somehow lost emails that covered the period between Scott's election and the time he was sworn into office.

The bill now mandates that that the governor - as well as the three Cabinet members - must preserve and make public any documents or emails they create or send after Election Day but before they are sworn into office. Scott was a strong supporter of the legislation.

Scott's own transition period back in late 2010 was a time of tremendous activity because the governor's top advisers started their recruitment of top agency positions and began assembling the initial parts of the governor's agenda.

The emails and documents that have been been made available show everything from the fact that themes in the governor's inaugural speech was poll-tested to the fact that some people sought out by the Scott administration turned down job offers. Those same documents show that inklings of ideas never enacted - including a proposal to put together a website that would list how business friendly some local communities were.

But last August it was first reported by The St. Petersburg Times that some emails were apparently missing. Scott's transition team members had tried to find the emails in the wake of public records requests, but they were unable to guarantee that all of them were available.

The Associated Press reported that one batch of emails that did surface late last summer showed that "former Gov. Jeb Bush offered that state's incoming governor a long list of "lessons learned through trial and error" that touched on everything from how to deal with those guarding his safety to telling him it was OK to veto stupid bills." Bush had also urged Scott to push for universal private school vouchers, to eliminate state money for some university programs and save money by releasing elderly prisoners.

Another set of Bush emails that was discovered months after the transition revealed that the former governor disagreed with a decision by the incoming Scott administration to fire the mother of an Army soldier who had just been killed in Afghanistan as well as others who worked in the governor’s office.

Amid the flap over the lost emails, Scott ordered an investigation by the Florida Department of Law Enforcement into why the emails were lost and whether any were retrievable. Nearly eight months later that investigation has still not been wrapped up.

While the investigation has not been concluded, some information about what happened has emerged, including that emails from both an iPad and smartphone used by the governor were lost.

Transition records are generally understood to be public records, but a review of transition records by The Associated Press "showed a wide disparity in how the records – including emails – by both the governor’s office and the offices of top Cabinet officials are collected and stored. Some records are turned over to state archives, but others for example, have wound up in the basement of Capitol offices."

That review also showed that while the Scott transition team used a private company to handle its email former Gov. Charlie Crist’s transition team used state computers to handle its email accounts. But it also appeared some members of the Crist team were never asked to turn over any emails from their personal email accounts.

The new measure that Scott signed into law states that in the future statewide elected officials must keep their emails - and turn them over when they are sworn into office.

Rick Scott's incomplete grade

Gov. Rick Scott - who has billed himself as Florida's jobs governor - says repeatedly that he receives a new grade every month when Florida's unemployment rates are released.

But maybe the grade Scott should get in his first year in office is an incomplete.

Why?

Because it turns out that the numbers that Scott relies on are nothing more than preliminary estimates based on a survey of 2,500 households.

Additionally, it is likely that the numbers will be changed in March.

Here's the full story on the benchmarking and process changes that could mean that the 2.1 percentage drop that Scott has praised may be inaccurate.

As the story points out economists and others who follow unemployment data know that the numbers are subject to revision.

Some of these changes are small, yet other revisions are quite substantial. For example, the reported unemployment rate in March 2010 was 12.3 percent. In March 2011 that rate was substantially changed and lowered to 11.3 percent.

Because of the change the December 2010 unemployment rate of 12 percent is now listed as the highest on record. (State unemployment rates date back to the '70s.)

Here's a look at how much the numbers changed the last two years from what they were initially reported.

Florida Unemployment Rates (seasonally adjusted)
Before Benchmark Compared to After Benchmark January 2009 to December 2010
	Unemployment Rates
Month/Year	Before Benchmark	After Benchmark (current)
Jan-09	8.7	8.5
Feb-09	9.2	9.0
Mar-09	9.6	9.4
Apr-09	9.9	9.7
May-09	10.2	10.0
Jun-09	10.5	10.2
Jul-09	10.8	10.5
Aug-09	11.0	10.6
Sep-09	11.2	10.8
Oct-09	11.4	10.9
Nov-09	11.6	11.1
Dec-09	11.7	11.2
Jan-10	12.0	11.3
Feb-10	12.2	11.3
Mar-10	12.3	11.3
Apr-10	12.0	11.3
May-10	11.7	11.3
Jun-10	11.4	11.4
Jul-10	11.5	11.5
Aug-10	11.8	11.6
Sep-10	11.9	11.7
Oct-10	11.9	11.8
Nov-10	12.0	11.9
Dec-10	12.0	12.0
Source:  Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program, in
cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

When you look at the numbers, you realize that Scott's reliance on them may be a bit premature.

And these changes have nothing to do with the debate of actual workers vs. discouraged workers. For example, Florida's 9.9 percent unemployment rate is actually 10.8 percent if you include discouraged workers into the equation.

Now it is worth noting that a separate figure highlighted by Scott - the actual growth in the number of jobs - is derived from a separate survey of businesses. State economists say that between 10,000 to 15,000 businesses are questioned to get an idea on whether jobs are being added or lost.

While economists know these numbers are subject to change, they have gained a political currency in the last few years.

Former Gov. Charlie Crist, for example, praised a reported drop in unemployment that occurred in April, May and June of 2010. The new data shows that the drop never happened and in fact the unemployment rate remained flat in the spring of 2010 before climbing back up.

This allows Scott to say - as he has a couple of times now - that jobs were lost for "four straight years" until he came into office.

The question now is whether the revised numbers for 2011 will be as good as Scott has advertised them.