The Fine Print

Scott promises "eight years" that won't be boring

Rick Scott, the Naples businessman who shocked the political establishment in 2010, appears ready to push ahead with plans to shake up all of state government.

In a lengthy interview given days before he will sworn in as governor Scott even joked: "You think the next eight years will be boring? You will have plenty to write about."

You can read about the entire interview here at the Sarasota Herald-Tribune.

During the interview, which was given in the same room in the Capitol that former Gov. Jeb Bush used as his office, Scott touched on a number of subjects. But he didn't provide a lot of details, insisting instead that he will unveil comprehensive proposals between now and Feb. 4 when he must submit his first budget recommendations to the Florida Legislature.

But here are some key highlights:

* Scott still plans to donate his salary to charity, sell off the state plane and put his assets in a blind trust. The governor-elect says he has not yet decided who will get his more than $130,000 a year salary but that hasn't stopped people from already asking him for the money.

* Scott will decide by next week whether to withdraw some of the appointments that Gov. Charlie Crist has made in the waning days and weeks of his administration. Scott can call back the names of anyone who has not yet confirmed by the Florida Senate. "We're keeping all of our options open on what we're going to do," he said.

* The governor-elect has still not made his mind on what changes he will push to the Florida Retirement System other than requiring employees to contribute part of the cost.

* Scott wants to push ahead with his ambitious plan to expand the use of school vouchers, but he is still not sure if he will first ask the Florida Legislature to place a constitutional amendment on the ballot that would help make such a program immune to legal challenges.

* Scott will not back down from his promise to cut property taxes - even as the state struggles with a $3.5 billion budget gap. He also seems confident that he can accomplish his agenda - and take on other big items as well.

"It's not daunting,'' Scott said at one point. "It's going to be fun. It's going to be exciting."

* Scott said he will weigh in during the month of January on who he thinks should be the next chairman of the Republican Party of Florida. Scott personally interviewed candidates for the job at the party quarterly meeting last month.

* Scott, who has never held public office before, said he tried to turned to those from the private sector for top jobs in his administration because "I want to have people who have accomplished things and know what they are doing."

 

 

 

 

Rick Scott's math problems

During his campaign for governor Rick Scott sharply attacked Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink for some of her budget proposals and said that they would be too expensive. Scott then quipped that Sink was practicing "Obama math." That led to Sink's own rejoinder that she didn't know what Obama math was even though she had been a math major at Wake Forest University.

In the next few weeks, Scott, however, will have to show how his math adds up.

Scott must hand over his own budget recommendations to the Florida Legislature by Feb. 4 - or about a month before the 2011 session. The tight time schedule is one of the reasons that many people in Gov. Charlie Crist's budget office were given until next June to resign. Scott's team - led by Donna Arduin, the budget chief for former Gov. Jeb Bush - have already started working furiously on the proposal. Arduin has been given her own office on the 17th floor of the Capitol to help with the effort.

This budget proposal could be the key in determining how successful Scott will be during his first year in office. And it will be interesting to see how Scott will accomplish the budget goals he outlined during his campaign.

Math problem No. 1: Scott says in his "7-7-7" jobs plan that he could save nearly $1.4 billion by requiring employees to start contributing for their own pensions (pg. 12). But as explained in this story in the Herald-Tribune the state of Florida is only paying slightly less than $700 million now on behalf of its employees. The rest of the money flowing into the Florida Retirement System actually comes from counties, school districts, sheriffs and other local governments.

So how does Scott make up the difference? One possible explanation is that he will use employee contributions from school districts - namely teachers - to help pay for the property tax cut he also wants to offer. Scott has proposed slashing school property taxes by 19 percent, but he says he would do it without cutting funding to education. So if you ask teachers to start paying for their own pensions, which would reduce their salary, is that, or is that not, a cut?

When pushed this week to explain how Scott planned to get $1.4 billion in savings, Lt. Gov. Jennifer Carroll said it would be revealed in Scott's budget plan. "Stay tuned,'' she said.

Math problem No. 2: Scott's team has said that the governor-elect plans to aggressively move ahead with his school reform proposals in the coming year. Scott's plan got some attention at the time he announced it, but there was plenty of coverage following his appearance Thursday at a rally of groups who help provide corporate income tax scholarships -  or "vouchers" - to low-income families. Scott again repeated his call for offering every student in Florida the opportunity of going to the school of their choice.

It has been previously noted that Scott wants to cut the corporate income tax while potentially expanding the scholarships, which are funded to a large extent by the tax. There's also legal implications to Scott's plan that may not be solved without a constitutional amendment given past Supreme Court rulings on vouchers.

But on top of that there remains the practical question of how much it would cost to expand vouchers and virtual education beyond current use. (Although it's important to remember that legislators this past year authorized the expansion of the one of the state's main voucher programs.) There will be some argument that you can save money by moving children out of public schools into private ones - but that depends on how much funding is authorized and whether or not the state plans to pick up the complete cost or merely subsidize part of it. Plus, there is the cost of helping pay for students already in private schools or students who are home schooled. The latest figures from the Department of Education show more than 62,000 children are home-schooled and more than 313,000 are in private schools.

Math problem No. 3: The existing budget shortfall - which is not a "deficit" - is now moving ever higher than previously forecast. This week brought news of higher than expected expenditures in Medicaid, lower property tax values for schools (although that dropped the cost of Scott's property tax cut plan slightly) and lower-than-anticipated sales tax collections over the last three months. Combined this pushes the expected budget shortfall to more than $3 billion.

Some of the projected shortfall is due to the loss of federal stimulus funds and continued growth in Medicaid but the shortfall is also dependent on legislative action. Lawmakers can whittle down this shortfall if they decide to forego some expenses such as buying environmentally-sensitive land or refusing to maintain student funding at current levels. Scott has suggested his own ways to deal with the budget shortfall, including cuts in the state prison system and the elimination of 5 percent of the state workforce (which is already the leanest and cheapest in the nation according to a new report from the Department of Management Services.)

Still Sen. J.D. Alexander, R-Lake Wales, was cautious when asked this week how he plans to fill the shortfall while at the same time going along with Scott's plan to cut property taxes and corporate income taxes. Alexander said one big place to look for savings will be Medicaid. Legislative leaders and Scott agree on making changes to the health care program, although there remains questions as to whether or not the federal government would sign off on them.

But then Alexander said that while he would like to put money back into Floridians pockets he said it won't be an easy task to balance the budget, saying that lawmakers have already made a lot of cuts the last few years. He also then made sure to say that the campaign is over and now it's time to govern.

"I would hope that all of us take a deep breath and move away from campaign rhetoric and start focusing on how do we make the best decisions possible to move our state forward," Alexander said.

 

 

Crist's demise leaves an uncertain legacy

With polls showing that he continues to lag behind rival Marco Rubio, the hour that Gov. Charlie Crist spent with David Gregory at Tuesday night’s U.S. Senate debate might be his final time in the national spotlight.

Crist, who had successfully climbed from the ranks of the state senate into the governor’s mansion, is now confronted with the prospect that his political career for now is over. His decision to bolt the Republican Party and run as an independent means that he will have few options after this year.

His political ascent was marked by several twists and turns and it is hard to imagine that the man now preaching about independence and moderation once accused Democrats of dirty tricks in getting then-Gov. Lawton Chiles elected over Jeb Bush back in 1994.

But as Crist exits the stage, he leaves behind an uncertain – and largely incomplete – legacy as Florida’s governor. Crist became the first governor to voluntarily give up the post after one term in the 40-plus years that governors have been allowed to seek re-election.

Lance deHaven-Smith, a professor of public administration and policy at Florida State University, said Crist’s legacy actually depends on how the election turns out next week.

“Crist tried to move his party and the state back toward the middle after eight rather polarizing years under Jeb Bush,'' notes deHaven-Smith said in an e-mail. “He did not accomplish much policy-wise compared to many other governors, but he contributed to significant improvements in the state’s civic culture.  If he is elected to the Senate, Florida is likely to see a continuation of this moderation in public office for both parties.  If he loses, well, his legacy of compromise and pragmatism may be short-lived."

David Colburn, a professor of history at the University of Florida and a long-time scholar of state politics, said that Crist clearly tried to work with both political parties and was not ideological in how he approached problems. An example of this, of course, was Crist's decision to embrace the federal stimulus in order to help ease Florida's budget woes.

“I think it is easy to dismiss Crist as a politician who is only interested in getting and holding office and that there really is not much to him,’’ Colburn said in an e-mail.  “Clearly he is not ideological and he made clear to more than one state political leader that "he was not Jeb Bush." By that he meant that he was willing to work with both parties to find solutions to critical issues facing Florida and that he did not dismiss government's role in improving the quality of life for Floridians.”

But Colburn also made it clear that Crist is unlikely to leave the same kind of impact that other governors left.

A full look at Crist's uncertain legacy can be found here at the Florida Tribune.

Next Senate President not bothered by a no vote on all amendments

Florida voters were supposed to get a crammed ballot this November that would ask them to weigh in on everything from school class sizes to federal health care reform and property taxes.

But a flurry of lawsuits coming from opponents of the amendments -- most of which were placed on the ballot by the Republican-controlled Legislature -- could block many of those proposals from being voted on this fall.

Six of nine proposed constitutional amendments on the 2010 ballot are tied up in court fights. And two measures have already been tossed from the ballot by lower court judges, although each of the cases probably will not be resolved until the state Supreme Court rules.

The latest to fall came Friday when a Leon County judge threw out a proposed amendment that advocates said would have been a boost to Florida's ailing real estate industry.

One lawyer involved in the fights is putting the blame on state lawmakers for crafting amendments that he says are intended to "deceive" the public. But Sen. Mike Haridopolos, R-Merritt Island, asserted that lawmakers have done all their work in the "sunshine."

But Haridopolos said with all the confusion surrounding the amendments voters could wind up rejecting all of them. And he says he has no problem with that.

"I would be fine if everyone voted no on all the amendments."

Here's the full story at the Sarasota Herald Tribune.

Private school voucher bill comes with expensive price tag

 As published first in the Current by the Florida Tribune:

A private school voucher bill being pushed by top Republicans in the House and Senate could have a huge financial impact unless changes are made to the legislation.

Initial fiscal estimates showed that HB 1009 and SB 2126 would cost nearly $100 million in the upcoming fiscal year and would have a potential recurring cost of $242 million. The bills, sponsored by Rep. Will Weatherford, R-Wesley Chapel and Sen. Joe Negron, R-Stuart, would expand the tax sources that can be used to pay for a voucher program that helps out low-income families. The legislation would also increase the amount of each scholarship available over the next four years.

The current scholarship program serves nearly 28,000 children and allows companies to receive a tax credit when they give money to an organization that provides private school vouchers. The current program is capped at $118 million a year and backers of the legislation said the new bill would only grow the overall cost by 25 percent.

Negron said on Thursday that the bill – which was supposed by taken up by the Senate Finance and Tax Committee – had “technical issues” which need to be fixed before it can move forward. The plan is to alter the bill and bring back a new version next week that resolves some of the questions about its impact. State economists are scheduled to discuss that revamped version and come up with new financial estimates on Friday.

“We’re trying to make sure the numbers are accurate,’’ said Negron.

(UPDATE: State economists on Friday morning considered a revamped version of the bill and concluded it would have a financial impact of $31 million in the next fiscal year. That would grow to $65 million in 2011 and $107.8 million the following year.

However, the cost to the state could be offset by potential savings in the number of students who decide to use a voucher rather than attend a public school. Figures utilized by economists suggest that could reduce the overall impact and could even save a few million dollars. But this savings is also reached by assuming that 95 percent of the students who would use the scholarships would have wound up in public schools.)

Class size amendment could give Republicans a weapon against Meek

The class size amendment was barely passed by Florida voters in 2002.

Then-Gov. Jeb Bush led the charge against the amendment - which called for capping class sizes in public schools - by saying the cost of the amendment would "blot" out the sun.

Bush tried to get the Legislature to freeze or even scale back the amendment, but his efforts came up short, most notably in 2005 when it was defeated in the GOP-controlled Senate by a 21-19 vote.

Flash forward to this year when it looks inevitable that a new measure to change the class size caps will clear the Senate. Republicans who opposed it five years ago have flipped their votes and not even all Democrats are standing in opposition.

Still some Democrats are wondering why Republican legislators are doing this. They say the final restrictions required by the amendment can be met by changing state law to give districts some wiggle room.

Republicans say that they can't ignore the constitutional requirements and that the final caps that kick in this fall are just too expensive to pay for.

But it's worth noting that the original 2002 amendment was championed by U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek, D-Miami and the likely Democratic nominee this fall for U.S. Senate.

If the class size do-over is on the ballot, then Republicans would be able to point a finger at Meek and ask why he wants to impose expensive restrictions on schools at a time the state is grappling with budget problems.

Remember it was Bush who used the original class size amendment as a way to brand his Democratic rival Bill McBride as a tax and spend liberal. During his entire 2002 re-election campaign Bush kept asking how McBride would pay for class size. Now of course Alex Sink - the husband of McBride - is running for governor and she could have to deal with the same question.

Read more about the class size fight here.