The Fine Print

How can Rick Scott regain momentum in 2013?

Amid the last round of lackluster poll numbers for Gov. Rick Scott political consultant Tony Fabrizio in mid-December wrote a one-page memo where he argued that it was way too early for people to write off Scott's chances for a second term.

Fabrizio used an interesting analogy: If President Barack Obama could win Florida a second time so could Scott. Download 12-19-12 Memo on Q Poll

 "Anyone who dismisses Governor Scott and his chances does so at their own peril. Governor Scott has nearly a year longer to reverse negative numbers similar to what the President had, therefore it seems irresponsible and hasty to count the governor out from making an equal, if not stronger, turn around."

Democrats this past weekend loudly announced that Scott's defeat will be their primary focus in the next cycle. The challenge of the Democrats, however, will be the ability of the party to have the resources to compete with what could be a very expensive race. And make no mistake: There are some in "Scott world" who are not troubled by former Gov. Charlie Crist as the nominee. That's because this will allow the campaign team to draw a clear contrast, especially when it comes to comparing how the state's economy fared under Crist and how it has fared under Scott.

It could also be argued that some of Scott's recent policy initiatives on tuition, voting and now teacher pay raises are aimed squarely at muting Crist on those same issues. Crist for example in 2009 signed the bill that gave universities in Florida the ability to raise tuition up to 15 percent a year until Florida's tuition rates reach the national average. Contrast that to Scott's firm insistence that tuition be held flat.

But the central question remains: What can Scott do on his own to turn things around in the coming year and heading into 2014?

The plain fact is that governors - unlike the president - have a much more limited fashion in which to engage with the public and convince them they are doing a good job.

One way is completely out of Scott's control: Show leadership through a crisis such as a natural disaster. Part of the enduring legacy - for example - of former Gov. Jeb Bush is the way he dealt with the wave of hurricanes that hit the state.

The difficulty for Scott rebuilding his brand and image in the second half of his term is that in many ways he's already been like three different governors.

Thanks to three different chiefs of staff he has approached governing, his agenda and his interaction with the press in distinct ways.

The first phase of Scott's governorship - where he was surrounded by people who helped his campaign including defacto chief of staff Mary Anne Carter - the governor staked out positions that excited the base of GOP voters who propelled him in the Republican primary and helped him get a narrow win over Democrat Alex Sink. He unveiled a budget that cut funding for education, he rejected billions in federal aid for high speed rail, he clashed with the Florida Legislature and his staff had a bunker mentality with the press.

The second phase under Steve MacNamara included a decision to have Scott engage in a two-way strategy with the press: Open up more to the mainstream media while also appearing on conservative talk radio shows to keep the base engaged. Also put in place was a more calculated strategy of trying to work with the Legislature. Take on the winnable battles like auto insurance reforms, avoid direct engagement (like in casino gambling) on issues that have an uncertain chance of success. Scott jettisoned parts of his campaign agenda such as pushing tough new laws on immigration. He became more accommodating to legislative initiatives and even embraced some of them such as the creation of Florida Polytechnic University. And Scott tried to undo the damage caused in the first phase by pushing for a funding increase in education.

Now with current chief of staff Adam Hollingsworth we have the third phase. Yet another strategy with the press. There are attempts to appear less rigid and more open to dialogue with opponents (hence the "discussions" over Obamacare with Washington D.C. or the dinner with top officials with the Florida Education Association.) And there's even a full 180-turn on hot topics such as voting where Scott - who signed the law that cut early voting days and defended it court - is now advocating an expansion of early voting beyond what was previously in place.

Moving ahead then here's the avenues left for Scott to try to change his trajectory with voters (outside the hope that the economy will continue to grow and that Scott will get the credit.)

SCOTT'S LEGISLATIVE AGENDA: Like it or not Scott's third year in office will in many ways revolve around what he accomplishes this spring. He will be judged by how much of his agenda is accepted or rejected by the GOP-controlled Legislature. Scott this week will present a budget that in many ways will attempt to highlight his new priorities, such as a flat across the board pay raise for teachers, a freeze on university tuition hikes and a cut in sales taxes for the purchase of equipment used in manufacturing. (More on this later this week)

But it should not be assumed that top lawmakers will bend to Scott's wishes as evidenced by the initial lackluster enthusiasm given Scott's teacher pay raise proposal. And we still don't have a clear idea on what will happen to the implementation of Obamacare, especially on expansion of Medicaid that is now an optional part of the federal health care overhaul. If Scott rejects expansion - which appears likely given his recent statements - will lawmakers buck him and dare the governor to veto it?

Scott's trump card, of course, is that he has the ability to shoot down any legislative proposals that he dislikes and he can use that as leverage to get what he needs.

Given Scott's recent populist turn on voting and teacher pay raises it will be interesting to see if he uses the veto pen as a way to distinguish himself from the Legislature. For example what does the governor do if a bill raising insurance rates for the 1.3 million customers of Citizens Property Insurance were to cross his desk on the eve of this year's hurricane season?

KEEP UP OPPOSITION TO THE PRESIDENT: In some ways Scott was actually better served by having President Barack Obama getting re-elected than having Republican Mitt Romney win. The down side to Obama's re-election is that the president and his allies have the capacity to assist the campaign of someone like newly-minted Democrat Crist. But Obama in the White House gives Scott - and the Republicans in general - something to rail about heading into 2014. You can see the narrative: "I stood up to the president on government controlled health care, we improved the economy without his help, we will not go along with his agenda on guns." You get the picture. And if Obama's numbers go underwater again then Scott gets to link Crist to the president.

SCOTT'S MEDIA STRATEGY: Largely unnoticed by the general public Scott's media strategy has in fact been altered with the entrance of new communications director Melissa Sellers. That's not to say that everything has been smooth sailing (witness the brouhaha over the return of Scott's dog Reagan.) But the press office's new strategy does appear to be one of cooperation (when it benefits the Scott agenda) and less direct confrontation. This means giving some in the press access in the hopes it will create a story that bolsters the governor.

This doesn't mean, however, that the press office is passive. Far from it.

The governor's office appears to be engaged in trying to get Scott's message out (which is amplified by the Republican Party of Florida, whose media operation is lead by former communications director Brian Burgess). It is then left to some of the agencies to push back against stories that the Scott administration does not agree with. Several agencies, for example, in recent months have put out press releases sent to all media outlets that attempt to debunk stories and even editorials that have appeared. (The changes at the Department of Environmental Protection being a key example.)

Meanwhile, the governor's press office is tracking media coverage even more closer than ever before. Emails show that the governor's entire staff is now getting "news alerts" that include snippets of stories and even tweets by capitol press corps reporters just moments after they hit the web and Twitter.

So will it all add up?

It's hard to say.

Part of the difficulty for those working for Scott is some of the missteps in the first two years have been self-inflicted. Democrats may not like some of Scott's policy initiatives but some of them have polled well with the general public i.e. drug testing for welfare recipients.

Those who have dealings with Scott will tell you up front that he studies details and takes times to understand complex policy issues.

But in many ways he has had to "grow up" in public and has drawn attention in ways he probably didn't intend (such as the incident with the King of Spain). In other instances, his staff did not appear to anticipate the political fallout over a decision (i.e. the cutting of the education budget, the signing of the Cuba-crackdown bill.)

The balancing act in the months ahead is whether Scott can find success with the Legislature and the economy and finally reverse his flat-lining poll numbers. Because even during a campaign there's only so much love money can buy.

The myths and mystery of Jeb Bush

The 2016 campaign for president appeared to begin in earnest in the wake of a recently New York Times article that suggested that former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush was already beginning to weigh financial and family considerations of a potential bid for president.

The timing of the article drew immediate attention from the national media and a steady stream of "will he run?" stories.

And Bush has remained in the news since then due to his national education summit held in Washington D.C. and his decision to take the post of chairman of the board of trustees of the National Constitution Center. There was even a recent piece in Time where he talked about education and joked that he has breaking out in a rash each time someone calls him a "centrist."

For those of us who follow Bush _ and keep in touch with people still in his orbit _ it is not a surprise that the presidential buzz is already starting since it appeared that the governor made a calculated decision early on in the 2012 cycle that this was not the time to run.

In other words, one could argue that Jeb instinctively knew that President Barack Obama would be very difficult to beat. And it probably would have been even more of an uphill battle for Bush. One Bush ally told me that heading into this year's presidential election the former governor himself was cognizant that there could still be "Bush fatigue" from his brother's stint as president.

But the mystery of will Jeb run in 2016 is likely to be less about his brother and more about what makes sense for him and his family.

The plain fact is that some in the national media would likely delve deeply into Bush's family life if he ran. This would like lead to the re-airing, re-reporting of troubles with his daughter Noelle Bush and even Columba Bush's run-in with U.S. customs agents. Yes, one could argue that the neither have any bearing on whether Bush is qualified for president. But it would be naive to think that stories like this would not be played back up on a national level should Bush mount a serious campaign.

That means that Jeb Bush has to make a calculated decision on whether the presidency is worth the avalanche of coverage that would come with a run for the White House. Bush, who does display flashes of anger from time to time, made it clear to the press corps in Tallahassee that questions about his family were out-of-bounds (although Bush himself did talk about his daughter on national television.) Bush's ability to exert any level of control on the national media, however, would be non-existent.

But as the national media begin to ponder a Bush run it's interesting to see the coverage that includes the following:

Bush is no longer really a conservative. Bush should step aside for fresh faces like U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio. Bush has been too deferential to President Obama and by extension the Democrats.

This is a fascinating narrative since it conflicts with the reality of his record.

To begin with - Bush's record as governor eclipses anything that Rubio has accomplished so far. Rubio's stint as House speaker left very much a mixed record. It's true he clashed with then-Gov. Charlie Crist on things such as expanded gambling, but Rubio also did things like endorse an expansion of state intervention into property insurance that was decried by conservatives. Rubio has maintained a fairly consistent voting record in the Senate in the last two years and inspired Republicans with his soaring rhetoric and his defense of American exceptionalism. But the plain fact is that Bush stands right now as one of the most substantial governors in the history of Florida in the last 50 years.

The success of his achievements can be questioned _ such as in a recent piece by Reuters _ but it's worth looking back at what happened during his eight years in office.

For those who may have forgotten, consider this a Bush primer:

1. During his two terms as governor, Bush pursued a series of education reform policies that were constantly criticized and villified by some of the mainstays of the Democratic Party. He pursued a school voucher program for students in chronically-failing schools that was eventually struck down by the state Supreme Court. The state's teacher union was so dramatically opposed to Bush that it spent money on independent television ads that helped propel little-known Tampa lawyer Bill McBride past former U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno. One of the emerging narratives happening in Florida politics now is that current Gov. Rick Scott has slowly begun challenging the underpinnings of some of the reforms, such as high-stakes testing. While Scott remains a firm backer of vouchers, he advocated this week for requiring students who receive vouchers to take the same tests as public school students. This is a stark turn-around from the position that has been taken by Bush and his allies.

2. Bush was staunchly pro-life during his terms as governor and was at the heart of the Terri Schiavo controversy. Bush's role in trying to keep Schiavo alive could in fact harm him during a run for the presidency. Not only did he support the legislation that attempted to bypass court rulings dealing with Schiavo but there were stories at the time that Bush contemplated sending in law-enforcement to seize Ms. Schiavo. The governor's office officially denied the reports at the time, but it would very likely there would be a re-airing of the entire controversy.

3. Bush's fiscal bonafides. While he was governor, state spending continued to rise as the continued rise in the real estate market led to record heights in the amount of state taxes that were taken in. But Bush also pursued some of the largest tax cuts in the history of the state _ including pushing for $1 billion worth of tax cuts in his first year in office. His handling of state finances was rewarded with stellar triple AAA bond ratings.

4. Bush took on public sector employees and their unions. During his term in office, Bush tried to make major reforms in public employee pensions. He was unsuccessful in his bid to force all new state employees to choose a 401 (K) styled plan but he got it an optional version. Bush also successfully argued for _ and got approval from the Legislature _ to reclassify roughly 16,000 career service employees into positions where they no longer had the same job protections.

5. Bush took the charge in eliminating some of the affirmative action programs in place in the state. Bush signed an executive order that removed affirmative action policies in state purchasing and got the state panel that oversaw the state university system to revamp admission policies to remove race as factor for consideration. During his first run for office in 1994, Bush was asked by a woman what he would do for black people if he were elected. "Probably nothing,'' Bush said at the time. Bush's push against affirmative action sparked a backlash led by then State Sen. Kendrick Meek and resulted in one of the largest protests ever on the steps of the Capitol. Meek and others used their anger over Bush's actions to rally voters against Bush's brother in the 2000 presidential election (and we know how that turned out in Florida.)

And if that wasn't enough consider this: Bush overhauled the death penalty, pushed through a huge expansion in the use of economic incentives to try to jumpstart the biotech industry, rallied voters to repeal a high-speed rail mandate, went after trial lawyers by trying to limit medical malpractice lawsuits, tried to undo a constitutional amendment (pushed by his nemesis Kendrick Meek) that mandated smaller class sizes, strengthened the power of the governor over the judiciary, and responded forcefully and efficiently to eight hurricanes that hit the state in 2004 and 2005.

The one area where Bush has been at odds with his fellow conservatives is over the issue of immigration. While Rubio's position on immigration has evolved and shifted as his political career has advanced, the governor has taken some stances that could cost him votes. Bush has not only criticized the tone and rhetoric about the issue, but he himself has even taken stances that illegal immigrants should be given access to driver's licenses.

As the speculation about Bush's future continues to heat up, it will be interesting to see if there is a continued attempt to rebrand Bush into someone who doesn't resemble the man who led the Sunshine State for eight years.

Can Charlie Crist really beat Rick Scott?

The signs that Charlie Crist could run for governor in two years appear to be everywhere, both figuratively and literally.

There are Charlie Crist billboards on the highways touting his current employer Morgan & Morgan. There was the recent Morgan & Morgan television ad where the former governor touts the virtues of teachers. There was Crist's endorsement of Democrat Bill Nelson for U.S. Senate as well as his decision to criticize the non-U.S. citizen voter purge being pushed by current Gov. Rick Scott.

and now: A hearty endorsement of President Barack Obama by the man who once proudly called himself a "Ronald Reagan Republican" and who once tore into then-Gov. Lawton Chiles after Chiles ran a bruising campaign to knock off Jeb Bush. Crist will also speak at the upcoming Democratic National Convention.

The timing of Crist's endorsement - which appeared in an op-ed of the pages of his hometown newspaper - was designed to coincide with the start of the Republican National Convention in Tampa.

Republicans expressed outrage on Sunday at the latest "betrayal" by Crist, who switched from GOP to independent before his failed run for U.S. Senate in 2010.

But if you talk to Republicans - and those in "Scott World" - there is actually a quiet confidence about the scenario of Scott taking on Crist during the 2014 elections.

First off, Crist - even with the potential backing of the White House (should Obama get re-elected)- will not have a clear path to a Democratic nomination. There are many Democrats who still view Crist with suspicion.

Then there is the reality that if Crist makes it on the ballot as a Democrat he will have to fight in a campaign where he gets significantly outspent by the incumbent governor. Barring some strange sequence of events such as where U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio decides to run for governor Scott will be the 2014 nominee.

That means the firepower of the party - which controls all of state government - will be aimed squarely at Crist.

For the 2014 elections, there will be no higher priority for the Republican Party of Florida than to re-elect Scott and destroy Crist.

The topics will be numerous, but expect the biggest contrast to be an ad that shows that Florida's unemployment rate rose significantly while Crist was in office. He will be portrayed as someone who was out-of-touch and indifferent while the state's economy imploded.

Then there's his political reinventions - and maybe even the unpleasantness of former RPOF chairman Jim Greer. (The Greer ads will basically point out that it was Crist who gave him the keys to the kingdom - and control of the party bank account.)

The one-plus for Crist is that his confrontation with Scott could be one of the biggest political stories of 2014 and could get plenty of earned media.

One big question, however, is whether or not Scott and Republicans will even wait until 2014 to seriously go after Crist.

RPOF Chairman Lenny Curry has already taken shots at Crist in blast emails. There have likely been early discussions about whether or not to run ads going after Crist. (Crist could find himself targeted by ads that do not have to follow any disclosure requirements since he is a public figure but not a candidate.)

That all said - this doesn't mean a Crist candidacy guarantees Scott an easy walk back into the governor's mansion.

Scott remains a polarizing figure who is unlikely to get widespread support from teachers, state workers, firefighters and police. He is not a great speaker and sometimes he appears ill at ease dealing with crowds.

The above chart shows why there remains a bit of worry in "Scott world."

You can quibble if you want about Quinnipiac University and its polls but the issue isn't one poll. It's the overall trend line that shows over his first 18 months in office Scott has really been unable to move his approval numbers much above 40 percent. The reasons are clear: He is deeply disliked by Democrats and his numbers among independents are way underwater.

It's the reason that the RPOF has spent at least $1 million - and climbing - on ads touting Scott this year despite other pressing elections on the near horizon.

It's why Curry puts out emails to the Republican establishment  touting the governor's accomplishments on the economy - even though presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney is running ads raising doubts about Florida's economy under Obama.

But that may be why taking on Crist could be a welcome scenario for those trying to get Scott re-elected.

While Crist is probably more likeable than Scott the Republicans can make the election a referendum on Crist's term as governor. Instead of defending Scott's record they get to attack Crist's. And that may prove to be a much easier task than going after a fresh face.

"Rick Scott could be at zero percent approval...."

It's no secret that Gov. Rick Scott's poll numbers have steadily gone downhill since he was first sworn in as governor.

There is some debate as to whether or not Scott's numbers are as bad as the latest poll from Quinnipiac University showed. Some newer GOP-leaning polls have suggested that the 29 percent number given to Scott by Quinnipiac may be too low.

Still Scott's poll numbers have triggered some debate and speculation on whether his unpopularity could aid President Barack Obama and the Democrats in Florida come next year.

There are some who obviously think mentioning Scott could help them.

U.S. Rep. Ted Deutch on Tuesday, for example, sent out a fundraising pitch for this quarter that asked his supporters to "send Rick Scott" a message as state lawmakers get ready to redraw districts.

But others say that the fate of Obama is tied to the national economy, not anything that Scott does.

"Rick Scott could be at zero percent approval, and if unemployment is at 10.5 percent or 11 percent, then Barack Obama is not getting re-elected,” Rick Wilson, a Republican strategist working for Adam Hasner in the United States Senate race in Florida, was quoted in a story that ran Tuesday in the New York Times.

To read the whole story, go here.

 

 

House would force federal candidates to resign to run

The Florida House has unveiled its version of a sweeping elections bill - and surprise! - it's got a handful of major differences than the Senate bill that passed out of the Senate Ethics and Elections Committee.

One difference is that the Florida House would restore the "resign to run" law for federal candidates. Back in 2007 state legislators - anticipating the possibility of Gov. Charlie Crist as a vice presidential candidate - changed the law to let candidates for Congress or other federal office run without having to give up their state office. (This was the law that tripped up Secretary of State Katherine Harris back in 2002.)

This change would not really affect Crist even if he does run for the U.S. Senate because candidates in Florida cannot run for two offices at the same time. But it would affect candidates such as Dan Gelber, the Miami Beach Democrat running for U.S. Senate. Under the current law Gelber could run for Senate without resigning his spot in the Legislature. The move would also cover any current members of the Legislature toying with the idea of running for Congress.

Some other differences between the two bills:

* Lets disabled voters use touchscreen machines until 2016. The current deadline is 2012.

* Gives the governor the right to extend early voting hours and days by executive order declaring an emergency.

* It does not include the provision that lets out-of-state political committees operate in Florida without complying with registration and reporting requirements.

* It would give third-party registration groups 5 days to turn in voter registration forms instead of the 48-hour deadline in the Senate measure.

* It has slightly different language regarding talking to voters in line. Instead of having a 100-foot buffer zone around anyone in line outside the polling place the House legislation says that no one can offer advice to anyone standing in line. The House does not have the provision that states that no one with a tape recorder or video camera can talk to someone in line.

But despite those differences, the House legislation does contain several of the other major elements of the Senate bill including changes to the executive committee structure of political parties, change in voter ID requirements and the recreation of leadership funds.

The House version is scheduled to be heard on Friday morning.

Top donors have stake in session outcome

The first quarter fundraising totals for the Republican Party of Florida and the Florida Democratic Party came in late Friday. On the surface, they show that the majority party still has the upper hand in the state despite President Obama winning Florida during last year's presidential election.

The Republicans reported raising $3.92 million to $1.21 million for the Democrats.

The other tidbit to gleaned from the fundraising reports is that many of the top donors during the first quarter have a stake in the battles being waged on the legislative front. While the state budget had been the main item of the session, legislation dealing with regulation of phone rates, renewable energy standards, property taxes, gambling and the make-up of the Low Income Pool council have been heard this session.

Here's a rundown of some of them:
AT&T: $100,000 to Republicans; $45,000 to Democrats
Florida Power & Light: $85,000 to Republicans; $42,500 to Democrats
HCA (and its various political committees): $150,000 to Republicans; $30,000 to Democrats
TECO Energy: $90,000 to Republicans; $46,000 to Democrats
Florida Medical Association: $100,000 to Republicans; $10,000 to Democrats
Realtors PAC: $100,000 to Republicans; $15,000 to Democrats
Palm Beach Kennel Club: $35,000 to Republicans; $15,000 to Democrats
Dosal Tobacco: $20,000 to Republicans; $10,000 to Democrats
CSX Transportation: $15,000 to Republicans; $5,000 to Democrats