The Fine Print

Expenses already climbing in Scott re-election effort

A new installment of Inside the Tallahassee bubble news...

EXPENSES ALREADY CLIMBING IN SCOTT RE-ELECTION EFFORT

Here's an interesting couple of tidbits that jumped out in going through last week's campaign finance reports.

One could argue that the bid for Scott's re-election effort is already getting plenty expensive even though the Democratic field remains somewhat unsettled amid ongoing speculation about Charlie Crist and U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson.

Consider this:

The company run by Scott's main political consultant - Tony Fabrizio - has already been paid nearly $600,000 by the Republican Party of Florida since last August. This includes a $170,000 payment in December and another $277,000 payment in March for "polling" according to RPOF campaign finance reports filed with the state.

On top of that Scott's own electioneering communication organization _ Let's Get to Work _ also stroked a $32,150 check for Fabrizio's firm to pay for an "opinion survey."

Records also show that Let's Get to Work in just the last quarter paid Forward Strategies, the company run by well-known fundraiser Meredith O'Rourke, more than $110,000. O'Rourke of course was a prime fundraiser for Crist back when he was a Republican. She was pushed aside from her role as an RPOF fundraiser during the unpleasantness involving disgraced former chairman Jim Greer.

Of course one could argue that Scott is also piling up a large amount of cash in advance of what could be a bruising fight. It's just interesting to note the amount of money already going to the effort even before the Democrats have a nominee.

NON-EXISTENT PATRONIS-GAETZ FEUD?

Rep. Jimmy Patronis told his hometown newspaper late last week that as far as he knows there is no looming rivalry between himself and Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fort Walton Beach over the state Senate seat now held by Senate President Don Gaetz. Patronis has already filed for the seat _ which comes open in 2016 _ while Matt Gaetz has filed for re-election next year.

"There’s nowhere I’ve seen it documented — both publicly or through social media — that would give me anything to believe that he is intending on running for his dad’s Senate seat,” he told the Panama City News Herald.

Patronis made this comment in the wake of a stream of comments from Gaetz on his Twitter feed where he has questioned Patronis' votes and stances on a line of issues.

But Patronis himself helped fuel the fire of this rivalry on the House floor.

During a debate on a Gaetz-sponsored bill repealing the state law that requires that gas contain ethanol Patronis got up to tout how he had pushed a bill the previous year that removed penalties for gas stations that ignore the mandate.

He said he would support the Gaetz bill but then added this dig: "I don't know if it really makes a difference."

Another key moment on Friday: Gaetz and Patronis were two of the four no votes on the House bill that would allow U.S. born children of illegal immigrants to receive in-state tuition rates at state colleges and universities. One of the other no votes _ Rep. Dennis Baxley _ wound up changing his no vote to a yes after the fact and said he misunderstood what the bill did.

The bill was a top priority for House Speaker Will Weatherford, who urged its passage at the start of the year.

A no vote coming from two Republicans representing roughly the same part of the Panhandle might cause some to wonder whether there was a fear that the vote could wind up on mailer. Or maybe that's reading too much into it.

CAN'T BUY ME LOVE:

The Florida chapter of one of the main union for state workers contributed more than $21,000 to legislative candidates before the start of this year's session. This included a maximum $500 donation to 17 Republicans in the House and Senate.

But all nine GOP House members who received a contribution from the Amercian Federation of State, Council and Municipal Employees Council 79 voted in favor of an amendment sponsored by Rep. Seth McKeel, R-Lakeland, that cut the amount of a proposed state worker pay raise from $1,400 to $1,000. The amendment was approved over the sharp objections of Democrats.

The lone no vote on the amendment was Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fort Walton Beach.

Perhaps the most interesting vote in favor of the proposal came from Rep. Halsey Beshears, R-Monticello.

That's because Beshears ran a memorable campaign ad last fall entitled "Do What's Right" where Beshears said that as businessman he understood the value of treating employees right: "Here we rely on thousands of great men and women to contribute to our local economy. We need to grow it and make it stronger. That's why we need to be more supportive of our hard-working state employees."

 

 

 

Can Charlie Crist really beat Rick Scott?

The signs that Charlie Crist could run for governor in two years appear to be everywhere, both figuratively and literally.

There are Charlie Crist billboards on the highways touting his current employer Morgan & Morgan. There was the recent Morgan & Morgan television ad where the former governor touts the virtues of teachers. There was Crist's endorsement of Democrat Bill Nelson for U.S. Senate as well as his decision to criticize the non-U.S. citizen voter purge being pushed by current Gov. Rick Scott.

and now: A hearty endorsement of President Barack Obama by the man who once proudly called himself a "Ronald Reagan Republican" and who once tore into then-Gov. Lawton Chiles after Chiles ran a bruising campaign to knock off Jeb Bush. Crist will also speak at the upcoming Democratic National Convention.

The timing of Crist's endorsement - which appeared in an op-ed of the pages of his hometown newspaper - was designed to coincide with the start of the Republican National Convention in Tampa.

Republicans expressed outrage on Sunday at the latest "betrayal" by Crist, who switched from GOP to independent before his failed run for U.S. Senate in 2010.

But if you talk to Republicans - and those in "Scott World" - there is actually a quiet confidence about the scenario of Scott taking on Crist during the 2014 elections.

First off, Crist - even with the potential backing of the White House (should Obama get re-elected)- will not have a clear path to a Democratic nomination. There are many Democrats who still view Crist with suspicion.

Then there is the reality that if Crist makes it on the ballot as a Democrat he will have to fight in a campaign where he gets significantly outspent by the incumbent governor. Barring some strange sequence of events such as where U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio decides to run for governor Scott will be the 2014 nominee.

That means the firepower of the party - which controls all of state government - will be aimed squarely at Crist.

For the 2014 elections, there will be no higher priority for the Republican Party of Florida than to re-elect Scott and destroy Crist.

The topics will be numerous, but expect the biggest contrast to be an ad that shows that Florida's unemployment rate rose significantly while Crist was in office. He will be portrayed as someone who was out-of-touch and indifferent while the state's economy imploded.

Then there's his political reinventions - and maybe even the unpleasantness of former RPOF chairman Jim Greer. (The Greer ads will basically point out that it was Crist who gave him the keys to the kingdom - and control of the party bank account.)

The one-plus for Crist is that his confrontation with Scott could be one of the biggest political stories of 2014 and could get plenty of earned media.

One big question, however, is whether or not Scott and Republicans will even wait until 2014 to seriously go after Crist.

RPOF Chairman Lenny Curry has already taken shots at Crist in blast emails. There have likely been early discussions about whether or not to run ads going after Crist. (Crist could find himself targeted by ads that do not have to follow any disclosure requirements since he is a public figure but not a candidate.)

That all said - this doesn't mean a Crist candidacy guarantees Scott an easy walk back into the governor's mansion.

Scott remains a polarizing figure who is unlikely to get widespread support from teachers, state workers, firefighters and police. He is not a great speaker and sometimes he appears ill at ease dealing with crowds.

The above chart shows why there remains a bit of worry in "Scott world."

You can quibble if you want about Quinnipiac University and its polls but the issue isn't one poll. It's the overall trend line that shows over his first 18 months in office Scott has really been unable to move his approval numbers much above 40 percent. The reasons are clear: He is deeply disliked by Democrats and his numbers among independents are way underwater.

It's the reason that the RPOF has spent at least $1 million - and climbing - on ads touting Scott this year despite other pressing elections on the near horizon.

It's why Curry puts out emails to the Republican establishment  touting the governor's accomplishments on the economy - even though presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney is running ads raising doubts about Florida's economy under Obama.

But that may be why taking on Crist could be a welcome scenario for those trying to get Scott re-elected.

While Crist is probably more likeable than Scott the Republicans can make the election a referendum on Crist's term as governor. Instead of defending Scott's record they get to attack Crist's. And that may prove to be a much easier task than going after a fresh face.

Rick Scott's long list of challenges

A beaming Governor-elect Rick Scott and his wife, Ann, showed up at the governor’s mansion on Monday night where they joined Gov. Charlie Crist and First Lady Carole Crist for a symbolic menorah lighting ceremony.

Scott helped 11-year-old Mendy Oirechman light the candles of a large menorah that was placed up against one of the front windows and he later held hands with Crist as they briefly danced with some of the rabbis in attendance.

The ceremony, which was started under former Gov. Jeb Bush, was a tangible sign of some of the many social responsibilities that come with being governor. But it also could be seen as a prelude of many of the large and small challenges that will confront Scott once he is sworn into office in early January.

During the half-hour ceremony, he was reminded of Florida’s insurance problems when he was asked whether he planned to follow Crist’s footsteps. Crist went to Jerusalem and placed a prayer in the Wailing Wall where he asked God to spare Florida from hurricanes.  Rabbi Schneur Z. Oirechman politely asked whether or not the mezuzah that now sits on the door jamb into Crist’s office would remain once Scott becomes governor. Crist back in 2007 took some heat from groups such as the ACLU for placing the religious symbol in his office.

But there are many other large challenges that are looming for the rookie governor whether it's the state budget mess, the dismal economy, Medicaid and even the brewing leadership battle for the Republican Party of Florida.

The complete rundown on Scott's challenges can be found here at the Florida Tribune.

The not-so-clear cut Republican Party of Florida audit.

The Republican Party of Florida earlier this month released a much anticipated audit that was supposed to finally reveal the depths of the financial scandal that has occurred under the watch of former chairman Jim Greer.

The independent audit also suggested that Gov. Charlie Crist may have benefited as well from improper spending during the reign of his hand-picked party chief who finally forced to resign back in January.

But it now appears that the situation may be a bit more complicated than initially reported.

It turns out, for example, that even party officials now concede that they aren't sure if any of the money spent on a trip to Walt Disney World was spent directly on Crist.

"We're not asserting that it was for him," said Dan Conston, a spokesman for the party. "We're asserting he was there."

Meanwhile, it turns out that the party reimbursed Jim Greer for expenses associated with a New York City trip that the party now says was improper.

So is the audit wrong? Depends on who you ask and what you believe.

Read the entire Herald-Tribune article here.