The Fine Print

Rick Scott and President Obama: Linked again?

Gov. Rick Scott is scheduled on Friday to act on another big batch of bills, but one of them is sure to overshadow all of the others.

Scott must decide whether to maintain his desire to keep college tuition low - or sign a bill that lets the University of Florida and Florida State University raise its tuition rates above the current 15 percent a year cap set in state law.

This decision in many ways may be a pivotal one for Scott that factors into this year's elections - as well as maybe even Scott's re-election bid in 2014.

Scott must make his up mind on the legislation (HB 7129) at the same exact time that President Barack Obama has been hitting college campuses in North Carolina, Colorado and Iowa. The president has been calling on Congress to stop interest rates on student loans from increasing this summer.

It has turned into yet another fierce partisan fight because Democrats and Republicans are in sharp disagreement on how to pay for it.

Republicans have responded to Obama's push by saying the real problem for young people right now is that they are unemployed or underemployed due to the ongoing problems in the economy.

But at the same time GOP presumptive nominee Mitt Romney - who Scott has now endorsed - agrees that the interest rate should be keep at its current rate.

Scott himself did not recommend a tuition hike in his budget, although he let stand a five-percent hike for the state's 28 colleges take effect. This week, however, he told reporters that he hopes that the Board of Governors - which oversees the state's universities ( a different set of higher education institutions) - does not use its power to raise tuition up to the full 15 percent now allowed under law.

The governor also said that he not made up his mind on the UF/FSU bill and has prepared both a veto message and a signing message.

You can argue of course tuition hikes - and the student loan issue - are not the same. But at a time that both parties are battling over young voters Scott's action could be used by the Democrats for symbolic purposes.

And it's worth noting that Alachua and Leon counties - the home to UF/FSU - delivered for Obama big-time in 2008. Obama won Florida by more than 236,000 votes. His margin over McCain in those two counties alone was nearly 64,000 votes. Were those votes all from students? No, of course not. But it's fair to say that they helped.

So while there is a political element to all of of this this also a make or break moment for higher education watchers.

The bill was an outgrowth of House Speaker Dean Cannon's speech this past January where he contended that the state's universities are mired in mediocrity and suffer from too much political interference.

In the last several years lawmakers have step-by-step moved closer to this moment. It used to be that tuition was completely in the hands of the Florida Legislature, but they have slowly ceded control to others, primarily the Board of Governors.

This of course has the effect of slowly taking tuition out of the political arena. In the past some Republicans fought this by arguing they did not want to relinquish control over something that affects the pocketbook of thousands of people.

University supporters, however, contend more money is needed to help propel the state's universities forward and make them more competitive with other national schools. The bill would be a first step in that direction.

Still a N.Y. Times article points some interesting facts, including that last year student debt surpassed card debt in 2010 and that for the last three decades tuition has outpaced the rate of inflation.

In many ways Scott and Obama - despite stark differences in many policy areas - are linked together because the jobs situation in Florida (now and in 2014) will be a key to their political success. You can argue over who is responsible, but you can't dismiss the fact that the unemployment rate remains a major factor in their re-election campaigns.

The question is whether or not college affordability becomes another place where the two become connected.

(UPDATE: Scott disappointed UF and FSU supporters and he vetoed the bill. In his veto message, the governor said that he was concerned about the growing debt burden of his students and a lack of jobs for college

"Many Floridians have offered very passionate advice on this issue," Scott wrote. "While this decision has not been easy, I do not feel that I can sign this bill into law without a more detailed plan to ensure the increased tuition requirements on Florida students will provide the return they and other Floridians need on their additional investment."

 

 

Some things to take away from Florida primary (other than who won)

Well if everything goes according to plan Mitt Romney will leave Florida's Jan. 31 primary with a convincing victory that could likely give him the GOP nomination for president.

But there are other things to mull over once Romney leaves and the Tuesday night speeches are finalized.

Turnout/enthusiasm. You could see the hand-writing on the wall for the 2010 elections when you look at what happened in the primary elections. Nearly 1.3 million Republicans voted in the bitter primary for governor between Bill McCollum and Rick Scott. By contrast slightly more than 917,000 Democrats voted in Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.

At the time Democratic operatives pooh-poohed the difference, contending it would all change for the fall elections and that the Democratic voter registration edge would prove the difference in the general election. Democrats of course got trounced, losing the governor's mansion, seats in Congress and spots on the Cabinet.

It doesn't matter that Alex Sink got 2.55 million votes. She still wound up losing to Scott despite Scott's background (think Columbia/HCA and the record fine for Medicare fraud after he was forced to leave the company.) Republicans did a better job of getting their voters out to the polls.

As of Monday, more than 623,000 Republicans had voted early or absentee in the primary.

Four years ago more than 1.94 million Republicans voted in a wide-open presidential primary held at roughly the same time.

There will be some attempt to say these numbers are skewed and point out that Amendment 1 (a measure to cut property taxes) was on the ballot during the same election.

But if Republicans dramatically fall short of the 1.94 million - or surpass that total - it could yield some clues about the overall intensity of the GOP base heading into the fall elections.

Yes, I realize that Republican voters will be fired up to cast a vote against President Barack Obama in November, but I have to think the Obama campaign will be look deeply into these turnout numbers to gauge how rough it may be to win Florida in November. Additionally, you can expect both parties to spin these numbers as well.

How did Romney fare in particular counties?

Some colleagues in the press have already ticked off some of the counties they are paying attention to, such as Pinellas or Miami-Dade or Duval.

Miami-Dade remains one of the most pivotal because Romney fared so badly there during the 2008 presidential primary. Miami-Dade has nearly 265,000 Hispanic Republicans - or more than half of the state's total. More than 70 percent of GOP voters in that county identify themselves as Hispanic. A big win there will prove that Romney's position on immigration did not hurt him there and may not be the wedge issue that Democrats keep hoping it will be (at least here in Florida.)

Other counties that will be worth looking at are those in Southwest Florida.

Romney won Collier and Lee counties back in January 2008, but one can argue that was before the full impact of the meltdown of the housing market left its mark there. If Romney falters in these two safe GOP counties, it could be interpreted that some of the attacks on him (and which will likely be copied by the Obama campaign) worked.

Early voting/absentee ballots

On a lesser note, it will be interesting to see how many Republicans voted absentee and voted early versus showing up on primary day given the aversion that some GOP legislators have to early voting.

If primary day voting is slow, you can expect an uptick in complaints about early voting. Some legislators such as Sen. Ellyn Bogdanoff have long complained that early voting hurts the process, especially what she calls "grassroots" candidates who do not have the resources to match a more-established, well-funded candidate.

Romney's Florida math

GOP presidential hopeful Mitt Romney touched down in Florida on Tuesday, making public appearances in both Tampa and Miami.

Romney got plenty of news coverage for his visit - and also picked up the endorsements of three well-known Cuban Americans who backed U.S. Sen. John McCain back in 2008.

The decision of his campaign to campaign in Central Florida and South Florida is likely a reflection of the math that led to Romney's defeat four years ago.

Romney lost the Florida primary to McCain by nearly 97,000 votes.

But the former Massachusetts governor's loss was not across the board.

Instead McCain and Romney found victory and defeat by how they fared in different parts of the state that each have their own unique sense of geopolitics.

Romney actually bested McCain in 17 counties. He had his strongest performances in Northeast Florida and in Southwest Florida. Romney won Duval County by more than 13,000 votes.

So why did Romney lose?

Because he lost to McCain in the Tampa Bay area and because he fared miserably in South Florida.

McCain took both Hillsborough and Pinellas counties by decent margins, but he really racked up a lead down south.

McCain did better than Romney in Broward County by more than 17,000 votes. McCain won Palm Beach County by more than 10,000 votes and had a 52,000 vote-plus edge over Romney in Miami-Dade.

In Miami-Dade Romney actually came in third trailing both McCain and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Of course a lot of the buzz four years ago was that the late endorsement by Gov. Charlie Crist may have given McCain the momentum he needed to push past Romney.

This is a new day and a new election and Romney's focus on the economy and jobs should resonate in a state with more than 900,000 people out of work. (The unemployment rate in Florida back during the 2008 primary was 4.6 percent.)

But one has to wonder what kind of impact that Romney's hard-line stance on immigration will have in South Florida even with the recent endorsements of well-known politicians such as Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Mario Diaz-Balart.

If former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich remains a contender, it will be interesting how Gingrich's more nuanced stance on immigration will play in Miami-Dade. Current voter stats show that 9.1 percent of all registered Republicans in Florida live in Miami-Dade.

There is a school of thought that one reason that Bill McCollum lost to Rick Scott in last year's GOP primary for governor is because McCollum suddenly took a hard-line stance on immigration in response to Scott's television ad barrage that made McCollum appear soft on the issue. The thinking is that this left Hispanic Republicans lukewarm when it came to both candidates. Scott was also able to accuse McCollum of being a flip-flopper.

What is indisputable is that Scott squeaked out a 36,000 vote victory in a primary that saw both Broward and Miami-Dade have low turnout margins compared to the rest of the state.

Broward turnout in the GOP primary for governor didn't even top 15 percent, while Miami-Dade turnout was 17.9 percent. McCollum won both counties, but not with the kinds of margins to help him offset his loss in places such as Scott's home county of Collier or in Duval County.

Is a presidential preference primary and a governor's primary the same thing? Absolutely not.

But it's hard not to wonder if some of the new advisers for Texas Gov. Rick Perry (including the team which helped engineer Scott's victory) have looked at the math and concluded that Romney remains vulnerable in Florida. (Especially if Perry is able to hold onto his money and use it for television ads during the home stretch before the Jan. 31 primary.)

Romney's path to the nomination will be a lot easier if he cruises to easy victories in states such as New Hampshire and Florida.

But if Romney loses again then Florida could be the precursor to a much longer and drawn-out nomination fight.

What if the unthinkable happens at Presidency 5?

(Sorry - for this blog being on hiatus for so long, but it's back for good.)

The three day gathering of Republicans known as Presidency 5 will come to fruition later today when the Republican Party of Florida announces the results of its much ballyhooed straw poll.

Gov. Rick Scott and others have touted the poll as a true indicator of who have the best shot to win the presidency. Scott has pointed out that in the past four polls the straw poll winner went on to win the GOP nomination and even the White House. Another argument is that Florida is a much more diverse state and that it is a microcosm of the state.

The conventional wisdom at this point is that Texas Gov. Rick Perry is the one to beat despite his performance in the Thursday night debate.

But there is also a considerable amount of buzz surrounding both Herman Cain and Ron Paul. Mitt Romney had made it clear that he's not actively competing in the straw poll despite the fact his name will be on the ballot.

The prospect of a Cain or Paul victory quietly has some Florida Republicans nervous.

The logic is this: What does it say about this high-profile national event if one of the frontrunners do not win. Will it take off some of the polish for the future?

Brian Hughes, spokesman for the Republican Party of Florida, brushed aside such talk.

"The party is excited for the delegates to have their opportunity to vote, we’re looking forward to seeing what the results are,'' Hughes said. "We anticipate to make national news with our selection."

It will probably be national news because there could be ramifications for Perry's campaign if he does not take the straw poll

It could be a lot of hand-wringing that doesn't amount to much, because theoretically, the next straw poll may come about for another eight years. And Florida will remain much in the spotlight due to the likely early Florida primary and the 2012 Republican National Convention.

But the reaction among top Florida Republicans later today could be interesting.