The Fine Print

5 biggest questions of the 2013 session answered

So closing the loop from two months ago, here's the 5 biggest questions of the 2013 session answered (and with some thoughts about what happens next):

1. Will lawmakers agree to expand Medicaid? The answer wasn't just no. For the Florida House Republicans it was hell no (and even when the proposal moved beyond Medicaid to the idea of using federal aid to purchase private health insurance)

The decision to reject expansion probably doesn't hurt GOP lawmakers right now. (Of course that could change when all the ramifications of the rejection begin to hit home to businesses and individuals next year.)

But it could be seen as a defeat for Gov. Rick Scott in more ways that one.

He already got hammered by conservatives for his decision to go along with Medicaid expansion after being one of the most ardent opponents to "Obamacare." But with no resolution Scott continues to get hit from Democrats who say this just shows he has no leadership skills. They contend he failed to use his clout to get it passed.

The governor made sure to say that Medicaid expansion was not one of his top priorities, but in the end he remains the one who probably loses the most from both sides of the political spectrum. Not sure how this helps someone whose poll numbers remain below 50 percent.

Democrats have started going on about a special session, but so far Scott has been skeptical about such an approach. Last Friday he said that state lawmakers had made their decision and the "answer is no." Just not sure how that plays - with anyone regardless of their political persuasion.

2. Will Scott get his pay raise for teachers? Kind of.

Yes, lawmakers did put $480 million in the budget, but at first they said it couldn't take effect until June 2014 (or in other words after another session had passed.) Then top legislative leaders said that the June 2014 was Scott's idea (although an email exchange from one of Scott's top aides showed that wasn't the case.)

Lawmakers also tied the pay raise to performance standards instead of an across-the-board $2,500 pay raise. While school districts have the final say over the raise, it remains to be seen how it will be distributed.

Scott has already gone out this week on a five-stop "victory" tour to tout the pay raise.

It's worth remembering that when Scott first pushed the pay raise he wanted it with no strings attached as a reward to the good work that teachers have done so far. "We don't want a war on teachers, we want a war on failure," was the line that Scott gave at the onset of the session.

But Senate President Don Gaetz and Weatherford had their own ideas - and they kept bargaining over the fine print of how the raises would be handed out until the very end of session. They gave Scott enough for him to use for his re-election campaign, but they stopped short of giving the governor exactly what he asked for.

3.Is Jeb Bush still in charge? No. But that doesn't mean he still doesn't have influence. And it may have showed up in key places.

Let's not forget that a few weeks before session that Bush privately told House Republicans that they should reject Medicaid expansion. But Bush added an important element: Make sure to offer up an alternative deal instead of just saying no.

And while many complained that it didn't go far enough House Republicans did in fact unveil their own plan to use state dollars to provide health insurance to roughly 115,000 uninsured Floridians.

Toward the end of the session Weatherford channeled Bush when said: "In politics these days a lot of people say ‘No’ and walk away. We didn’t say no. We offered up an alternative.”

But in other places Bush's influence was not as significant. An example is the defeat again this year of the controversial "parent trigger" bill in the Florida Senate despite Bush's fervent support.

And it was Florida's other famous Republican _ U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio _ who also may have had just as much influence as his one-time mentor. The Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald, for example, reported that Rubio played a role in the last-minute decision by legislators to push back the date of Florida's presidential primary. This was a big deal since it was Rubio who pushed for the change to begin with.

4. A kinder, less partisan Legislature? Nope.

There had been signs right before the start that the Legislature might chart a less confrontational path than in previous years. But the impasse over Medicaid expansion and disagreement over election law changes resulted in a whole lot of acrimony in the waning moments of the session.

Republicans complained that the opposition by Senate Democrats to the election bill (after it was first appeared to be a bipartisan effort) was all about politics.

House Democrats meanwhile used a procedural move to slow down the pace of the session in the final few days that left both sides fuming and scowling. And it turns out that one of the casualties may in fact be Scott's proposal to eliminate sales taxes for manufacturers who purchase the equipment. The tax cut was pushed through by Republicans who refused to answer questions or even debate the measure when it came on the evening of May 1. The result was a vote much closer than anticipated and one that turned to be under the two-thirds requirement for bills that affect local tax revenues.

Weatherford and House staff contend the tax cut bill is not in danger of falling due to a legal challenge. They offered several theories that hinge on your definition of words like "aggregate" and "insignificant."

Weatherford for his part questioned who want to sue over a tax cut. Fair enough. But it's worth wondering whether or not the vote would have been that close if House Republicans weren't scrambling to push through the tax cut bill. (The reason for the rush, of course, was that there were fears that Scott would veto bills being sought by Weatherford and Gaetz if he didn't get his tax cut proposal. Scott signed the bills within an hour of the House vote.)

5. Is this really the year for serious ethics reform? Actually, the answer to this is yes.

While the final ethics bill isn't as far-reaching as some have advocated this is a still an accomplishment given that grand juries and former governors have tried to get the Legislature to crack down on public officials in the last decade.

The final bill for the first time a mechanism that allows the Florida Commission on Ethics to initiate an investigation based upon a referral from the governor or law-enforcement agencies. (It also makes it harder for people to file complaints right before an election based on newspaper stories.)

It puts additional restrictions on lobbying and dual employment by legislators, requires posting of financial disclosure forms on the Internet, and allow the state to go after public officials who have refused to pay fines.

There are some question marks about a couple of the final provisions. But several advocacy groups have noted that the final bill is more than has been done in the area in quite some time.

5 biggest questions of the 2013 session

Florida's GOP-controlled Legislature kicks off its annual session on Tuesday amid the backdrop of Gov. Rick Scott's aggressive move to the center as he continues to battle stagnant poll numbers. Both House Speaker Will Weatherford and Senate President Don Gaetz have their own agendas but the big focus for the next 60 days is whether or not lawmakers will help the incumbent Republican governor or damage him further as he gets prepared for what could be a very tough re-election campaign.

Here then are the 5 biggest questions of the 2013 session:

1. Will lawmakers agree to expand Medicaid? This is a decision that could have repercussions for years to come.

Scott's decision to endorse the expansion of the safety-net health care insurance program for three years to take advantage of billions in federal aid was widely criticized by conservatives and even top fellow Republicans.

The governor has said this is not one of his top priorities, but his decision to endorse the expansion right before the session means that if the Medicaid expansion is rejected it will be seen as a loss for Scott.

The House has already come out forcefully against the expansion and Weatherford is expected during his opening day remarks to articulate the rationale behind that stance. The Senate has taken no official position yet although comments in recent weeks suggested that Senate Republicans have been contemplating expansion seriously.

There are some suggestions that the House may use Medicaid expansion as a bargaining chip for other issues which if true carries its own share of risks, including bringing down the wrath of conservatives and tea party groups on to House Republicans if they change their mind over the next nine weeks. But if the House and Senate goes different routes it sets the stage for an impasse over the entire budget...which means the session may not end on time.

What could emerge is a hybrid solution: Some limited expansion of Medicaid that comes without the full funding of the federal government, but offers an answer to critics who contend the state is turning its back on roughly 1 million uninsured residents. There is also a lot of interest in the deal offered to the state of Arkansas which has been allowed by the feds to purchase private health insurance for those below 133 percent of the federal poverty line instead of placing those people into Medicaid.

2. Will Scott get his pay raise for teachers? The debate over Medicaid expansion has overshadowed what could have been the biggest storyline of the session: Will Republican legislative leaders go along with Scott's budget proposals, including his pitch for a $2,500 across the board pay raise for teachers in the state.

Scott has made it clear that the teacher pay raise - and his push to eliminate sales taxes on equipment purchased for manufacturing - are his top two priorities this year.

In his State of the State speech Scott will tell lawmakers: "Some say they are afraid that giving raises to all teachers may mean that a teacher doing a bad job gets rewarded. But, thanks to our work, we are now in a better position than ever before to reward good teachers and move bad teachers out of the classroom....We don’t want a war on teachers; we want a war on failure"

But both Weatherford and Gaetz have so far given only lukewarm endorsements of the proposal. Instead the two legislative leaders have questioned if the raises would undermine the new merit pay system that is supposed to take effect next year.

Again, we have a potentially awkward situation where the Legislature has the power to either help Scott as he moves forward - or damage him.

3.Is Jeb Bush still in charge? Former Gov. Bush visited Tallahassee a few weeks ago and he met with legislative leaders as well as an enthusiastic group of House Republicans. At the tail end of a closed door session with the House members he was asked about the contentious Medicaid expansion issue. Bush told them that they should reject the expansion, but that they should offer up an alternative deal. So far the House has followed through on part one of that advice.

But that's far from where the Bush influence ends. Bush - who battled mightily against the state's teacher union while he pushed education changes  - refused during that brief stop to publicly take a position on Scott's pay raise proposal. No one should believe he doesn't have an opinion. Instead it should be viewed that Bush adheres to the protocol of avoiding any public policy disagreements with a sitting Republican governor.

There is also expected this year to be a repeat of last year's heavily-debated "parent trigger" bill. Bush steadfastly supports the legislation, which is expected to have a smoother trip this session. So if Medicaid expansion and teacher pay raises go down and parent trigger is passed then Bush will have a better session than the current occupant of the plaza offices in the Capitol.

4. A kinder, less partisan Legislature? In the run-up to the start of the session (and before Monday's Medicaid expansion stance that drew the wrath of Democrats), there had been signs that the Legislature may chart a less confrontational path than in previous years.

Case in point is the proposal to revamp the state's election system. It was the supercharged 2011 Legislature that passed the controversial election law that cut short early voting days. Republicans - who enjoyed a super-majority at the time - pushed the bill through despite strong warnings from Democrats it would backfire on them.

This year we have Republicans attempting so far to work with Democrats on rolling back some of the provisions of the 2011 law and making other changes in order to avoid a repeat of last fall's election where people wound up waiting hours in line in order to vote. Democrats are not in complete agreement, but this is still a marked change from just two years earlier.

It could be that the 2012 elections - where President Barack Obama won Florida a second time and Republicans lost seats in the Legislature - might have been a wake up call that the GOP needs to moderate its message and image.

So far we have not seen a wave of legislation that is intended to fire up the Republican base heading into 2014. The normal pattern is that the off-year session is the year that lawmakers are more likely to adopt controversial items. This could be the year that breaks that trend.

5. Is this really the year for serious ethics reform? Both Weatherford and Gaetz have vowed that this is the year that legislators will enact far-reaching changes to the state's ethics laws. The Florida Senate is expected to take up - and probably pass  - the ethics bill on the first day of session.

The reason this is a big deal is that grand juries and former governors have tried to get the Legislature to crack down on public officials in the last decade but those efforts went nowhere.

The Senate bill creates for the first time a mechanism that allows the Florida Commission on Ethics to initiate an investigation based upon a referral from the governor or law-enforcement agencies. (It also makes it harder for people to file complaints right before an election based on newspaper stories.)

Weatherford for his part supports ethics reform, but he also said time and time again that ethics reform can't be done without "campaign finance" reform. Translation: We take your bill if you take our bill.

It's likely that some kind of deal will get reached and legislation dealing with both will pass. But the key is what gets dumped, altered and changed by the time legislators reach the finishing line.

Will it be the far-reaching changes that legislative leaders have vowed? Or will it be incremental changes that maintain some of the current loopholes in the system?

How can Rick Scott regain momentum in 2013?

Amid the last round of lackluster poll numbers for Gov. Rick Scott political consultant Tony Fabrizio in mid-December wrote a one-page memo where he argued that it was way too early for people to write off Scott's chances for a second term.

Fabrizio used an interesting analogy: If President Barack Obama could win Florida a second time so could Scott. Download 12-19-12 Memo on Q Poll

 "Anyone who dismisses Governor Scott and his chances does so at their own peril. Governor Scott has nearly a year longer to reverse negative numbers similar to what the President had, therefore it seems irresponsible and hasty to count the governor out from making an equal, if not stronger, turn around."

Democrats this past weekend loudly announced that Scott's defeat will be their primary focus in the next cycle. The challenge of the Democrats, however, will be the ability of the party to have the resources to compete with what could be a very expensive race. And make no mistake: There are some in "Scott world" who are not troubled by former Gov. Charlie Crist as the nominee. That's because this will allow the campaign team to draw a clear contrast, especially when it comes to comparing how the state's economy fared under Crist and how it has fared under Scott.

It could also be argued that some of Scott's recent policy initiatives on tuition, voting and now teacher pay raises are aimed squarely at muting Crist on those same issues. Crist for example in 2009 signed the bill that gave universities in Florida the ability to raise tuition up to 15 percent a year until Florida's tuition rates reach the national average. Contrast that to Scott's firm insistence that tuition be held flat.

But the central question remains: What can Scott do on his own to turn things around in the coming year and heading into 2014?

The plain fact is that governors - unlike the president - have a much more limited fashion in which to engage with the public and convince them they are doing a good job.

One way is completely out of Scott's control: Show leadership through a crisis such as a natural disaster. Part of the enduring legacy - for example - of former Gov. Jeb Bush is the way he dealt with the wave of hurricanes that hit the state.

The difficulty for Scott rebuilding his brand and image in the second half of his term is that in many ways he's already been like three different governors.

Thanks to three different chiefs of staff he has approached governing, his agenda and his interaction with the press in distinct ways.

The first phase of Scott's governorship - where he was surrounded by people who helped his campaign including defacto chief of staff Mary Anne Carter - the governor staked out positions that excited the base of GOP voters who propelled him in the Republican primary and helped him get a narrow win over Democrat Alex Sink. He unveiled a budget that cut funding for education, he rejected billions in federal aid for high speed rail, he clashed with the Florida Legislature and his staff had a bunker mentality with the press.

The second phase under Steve MacNamara included a decision to have Scott engage in a two-way strategy with the press: Open up more to the mainstream media while also appearing on conservative talk radio shows to keep the base engaged. Also put in place was a more calculated strategy of trying to work with the Legislature. Take on the winnable battles like auto insurance reforms, avoid direct engagement (like in casino gambling) on issues that have an uncertain chance of success. Scott jettisoned parts of his campaign agenda such as pushing tough new laws on immigration. He became more accommodating to legislative initiatives and even embraced some of them such as the creation of Florida Polytechnic University. And Scott tried to undo the damage caused in the first phase by pushing for a funding increase in education.

Now with current chief of staff Adam Hollingsworth we have the third phase. Yet another strategy with the press. There are attempts to appear less rigid and more open to dialogue with opponents (hence the "discussions" over Obamacare with Washington D.C. or the dinner with top officials with the Florida Education Association.) And there's even a full 180-turn on hot topics such as voting where Scott - who signed the law that cut early voting days and defended it court - is now advocating an expansion of early voting beyond what was previously in place.

Moving ahead then here's the avenues left for Scott to try to change his trajectory with voters (outside the hope that the economy will continue to grow and that Scott will get the credit.)

SCOTT'S LEGISLATIVE AGENDA: Like it or not Scott's third year in office will in many ways revolve around what he accomplishes this spring. He will be judged by how much of his agenda is accepted or rejected by the GOP-controlled Legislature. Scott this week will present a budget that in many ways will attempt to highlight his new priorities, such as a flat across the board pay raise for teachers, a freeze on university tuition hikes and a cut in sales taxes for the purchase of equipment used in manufacturing. (More on this later this week)

But it should not be assumed that top lawmakers will bend to Scott's wishes as evidenced by the initial lackluster enthusiasm given Scott's teacher pay raise proposal. And we still don't have a clear idea on what will happen to the implementation of Obamacare, especially on expansion of Medicaid that is now an optional part of the federal health care overhaul. If Scott rejects expansion - which appears likely given his recent statements - will lawmakers buck him and dare the governor to veto it?

Scott's trump card, of course, is that he has the ability to shoot down any legislative proposals that he dislikes and he can use that as leverage to get what he needs.

Given Scott's recent populist turn on voting and teacher pay raises it will be interesting to see if he uses the veto pen as a way to distinguish himself from the Legislature. For example what does the governor do if a bill raising insurance rates for the 1.3 million customers of Citizens Property Insurance were to cross his desk on the eve of this year's hurricane season?

KEEP UP OPPOSITION TO THE PRESIDENT: In some ways Scott was actually better served by having President Barack Obama getting re-elected than having Republican Mitt Romney win. The down side to Obama's re-election is that the president and his allies have the capacity to assist the campaign of someone like newly-minted Democrat Crist. But Obama in the White House gives Scott - and the Republicans in general - something to rail about heading into 2014. You can see the narrative: "I stood up to the president on government controlled health care, we improved the economy without his help, we will not go along with his agenda on guns." You get the picture. And if Obama's numbers go underwater again then Scott gets to link Crist to the president.

SCOTT'S MEDIA STRATEGY: Largely unnoticed by the general public Scott's media strategy has in fact been altered with the entrance of new communications director Melissa Sellers. That's not to say that everything has been smooth sailing (witness the brouhaha over the return of Scott's dog Reagan.) But the press office's new strategy does appear to be one of cooperation (when it benefits the Scott agenda) and less direct confrontation. This means giving some in the press access in the hopes it will create a story that bolsters the governor.

This doesn't mean, however, that the press office is passive. Far from it.

The governor's office appears to be engaged in trying to get Scott's message out (which is amplified by the Republican Party of Florida, whose media operation is lead by former communications director Brian Burgess). It is then left to some of the agencies to push back against stories that the Scott administration does not agree with. Several agencies, for example, in recent months have put out press releases sent to all media outlets that attempt to debunk stories and even editorials that have appeared. (The changes at the Department of Environmental Protection being a key example.)

Meanwhile, the governor's press office is tracking media coverage even more closer than ever before. Emails show that the governor's entire staff is now getting "news alerts" that include snippets of stories and even tweets by capitol press corps reporters just moments after they hit the web and Twitter.

So will it all add up?

It's hard to say.

Part of the difficulty for those working for Scott is some of the missteps in the first two years have been self-inflicted. Democrats may not like some of Scott's policy initiatives but some of them have polled well with the general public i.e. drug testing for welfare recipients.

Those who have dealings with Scott will tell you up front that he studies details and takes times to understand complex policy issues.

But in many ways he has had to "grow up" in public and has drawn attention in ways he probably didn't intend (such as the incident with the King of Spain). In other instances, his staff did not appear to anticipate the political fallout over a decision (i.e. the cutting of the education budget, the signing of the Cuba-crackdown bill.)

The balancing act in the months ahead is whether Scott can find success with the Legislature and the economy and finally reverse his flat-lining poll numbers. Because even during a campaign there's only so much love money can buy.

The governor, Obamacare and an arcane bureaucratic process most taxpayers have never heard about

Give Gov. Rick Scott credit for one thing.

He is helping bring attention to an arcane part of the state budgeting process that most people are probably unaware of.

Scott created a firestorm because he decided to stick with and publicize a forecast that contends that implementing "Obamacare" - which includes expanding the state Medicaid program - would cost state taxpayers nearly $26 billion. It was Scott's own health care agency that drew up these numbers back in December in anticipation of presenting the information to state economists.

But Scott's own budget office was quickly informed that the numbers by the Agency for Health Care Administration needed to be reworked to comply with the normal forecast process. For example: One big reason for the higher price-tag is that AHCA assumed that the federal government would change the law and cut back on money pledged to the states.

Yet despite that Scott used the figure of $26 billion when he met this week with Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius to talk about health care. Emails showing that Scott's office had been warned surfaced thanks to reporting by Health News Florida, sparking criticism, especially from Democrats who accused Scott of cooking the books in order to justify his continued opposition to the federal health care overhaul.

Then on Wednesday night AHCA released new numbers that showed that the forecast now ranged from as low as $3 billion to $9 billion if drawn up in accordance the normal fashion. The new estimates came out shortly after House budget chief Rep. Seth McKeel put out a statement that said it was important that the state follow its normal process "which requires estimates based on current law and practice. This is critical to the integrity of our budgeting process."

Now to be fair this isn't the first time that forecasts drawn up by state government have created a controversy.

Back in 2002 there was sharp criticism when economists said that the class size amendment pushed by then State Sen. Kendrick Meek would cost as much as $30 billion during the initial implementation phase. Then-Gov. Jeb Bush used this estimate to pound Bill McBride in their race for governor. McBride supported the amendment while Bush said it would lead to dramatic tax hikes. (The final tally between the 2003-04 fiscal year to the 2010-11 fiscal year was $18.7 billion and the cost is now up to $24.6 billion after a decade.)

It's also rather routine for state economists to question forecasts that come from state agencies including AHCA.

Here's how it works: Most of the attention that comes with the state budget occurs in the spring when the governor proposes a budget and then the Legislature uses that as a framework to build its own budget.

But by law the governor and the Legislature rely on a series of "estimating conferences" where professional staff from the House, Senate, governor's office and the Office of Economic and Demographic Research come together and go over data to reach estimates that are then used to build the budget. The idea is to reach a "consensus" that give an accurate picture of how much tax dollars will be collected, how many school children will show up each year and how much money will be needed to cover expenses in such programs as Medicaid, the safety net program for the poor. Any one of the "principals" involved can veto the estimate.

This practice started in 1970 with forecasts for general revenue (the tax dollars that make up the main funding source for state government.) The process was formalized in state law in 1985 and the number of estimating conferences has expanded since then. If you want more, here's a handy dandy explanation.

The important thing here is this: The Legislature is not bound to use these forecasts when it adopts a final budget. But it generally does. And more importantly state agencies - and the governor - are supposed to use them as well.

Last summer an estimating conference was held that put the cost of the state implementing optional and mandatory portions of "Obamacare" officially at $1.74 billion but with a "maximum exposure" of roughly $8 billion. This number was drawn up after reviewing AHCA numbers and massaging them. The higher figure assumed, for example, that the state would pay health care providers and doctors a higher reimbursement rate for the next 10 years even though current rules require the higher payment for just two years.

Then as the year went on the plan was to hold a new meeting to update the numbers in advance of Scott releasing his budget and the Legislature going into session.

AHCA in December came out with the new $26 billion figure, but that new estimate assumed that the federal government would reimburse the state for Medicaid expansion at the average rate it has been reimbursing the state for years. That led to the director of the House Health Care Appropriations subcommittee to request that AHCA redo the numbers because he pointed out the estimates relied on a reimbursement formula that was "contrary to federal law" and deviated from the normal practice.

Scott's new policy coordinator for health care asked that the new AHCA numbers be presented at the next estimating conference anyway as an alternative forecast (which is allowed under the process.)

Mike Anway wrote that "It is our responsibility as principles (sic) to take seriously the actions of this administration, and question if the state of Florida can rely upon the promises of an increased (federal reimbursement) for an expanded Medicaid program." Anway pointed out that the Obama administration had already proposed scaling back the reimbursement rate and that the federal government has a "$16 trillion national debt, must borrow 46 cents of every dollar it spends, and in 2011 had its credit rating downgraded."

It's important - again - to note that this $26 billion figure can't be adopted as an official estimate without unanimous consent from everyone participating in the conference.

That means - for now - Scott is bound to last August's estimate unless a new one is drawn up between now and when he unveils his budget. (Of course based on everything he has said it seems it would be unlikely that Scott would recommend expanding Medicaid as envisioned under "Obamacare." And he will likely use the higher number to justify his decision.)

But that doesn't mean that the Legislature - which is getting lobbied by hospitals to go along with the expansion - won't buck the governor on this.

What's also interesting is that state economists were supposed to hold the conference to draw up the new "Obamacare" numbers last month. That meeting, however, was postponed and still hasn't been rescheduled. That gave time for AHCA to draw up the revised numbers that it released late Wednesday.

So now we have all sorts of drama to spice up the mundane estimating conferences thanks to the governor. And it's just a guess but it's safe to assume that next one on the Affordable Care Act will probably draw a much larger crowd than normal.

 

 

 

 

The myths and mystery of Jeb Bush

The 2016 campaign for president appeared to begin in earnest in the wake of a recently New York Times article that suggested that former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush was already beginning to weigh financial and family considerations of a potential bid for president.

The timing of the article drew immediate attention from the national media and a steady stream of "will he run?" stories.

And Bush has remained in the news since then due to his national education summit held in Washington D.C. and his decision to take the post of chairman of the board of trustees of the National Constitution Center. There was even a recent piece in Time where he talked about education and joked that he has breaking out in a rash each time someone calls him a "centrist."

For those of us who follow Bush _ and keep in touch with people still in his orbit _ it is not a surprise that the presidential buzz is already starting since it appeared that the governor made a calculated decision early on in the 2012 cycle that this was not the time to run.

In other words, one could argue that Jeb instinctively knew that President Barack Obama would be very difficult to beat. And it probably would have been even more of an uphill battle for Bush. One Bush ally told me that heading into this year's presidential election the former governor himself was cognizant that there could still be "Bush fatigue" from his brother's stint as president.

But the mystery of will Jeb run in 2016 is likely to be less about his brother and more about what makes sense for him and his family.

The plain fact is that some in the national media would likely delve deeply into Bush's family life if he ran. This would like lead to the re-airing, re-reporting of troubles with his daughter Noelle Bush and even Columba Bush's run-in with U.S. customs agents. Yes, one could argue that the neither have any bearing on whether Bush is qualified for president. But it would be naive to think that stories like this would not be played back up on a national level should Bush mount a serious campaign.

That means that Jeb Bush has to make a calculated decision on whether the presidency is worth the avalanche of coverage that would come with a run for the White House. Bush, who does display flashes of anger from time to time, made it clear to the press corps in Tallahassee that questions about his family were out-of-bounds (although Bush himself did talk about his daughter on national television.) Bush's ability to exert any level of control on the national media, however, would be non-existent.

But as the national media begin to ponder a Bush run it's interesting to see the coverage that includes the following:

Bush is no longer really a conservative. Bush should step aside for fresh faces like U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio. Bush has been too deferential to President Obama and by extension the Democrats.

This is a fascinating narrative since it conflicts with the reality of his record.

To begin with - Bush's record as governor eclipses anything that Rubio has accomplished so far. Rubio's stint as House speaker left very much a mixed record. It's true he clashed with then-Gov. Charlie Crist on things such as expanded gambling, but Rubio also did things like endorse an expansion of state intervention into property insurance that was decried by conservatives. Rubio has maintained a fairly consistent voting record in the Senate in the last two years and inspired Republicans with his soaring rhetoric and his defense of American exceptionalism. But the plain fact is that Bush stands right now as one of the most substantial governors in the history of Florida in the last 50 years.

The success of his achievements can be questioned _ such as in a recent piece by Reuters _ but it's worth looking back at what happened during his eight years in office.

For those who may have forgotten, consider this a Bush primer:

1. During his two terms as governor, Bush pursued a series of education reform policies that were constantly criticized and villified by some of the mainstays of the Democratic Party. He pursued a school voucher program for students in chronically-failing schools that was eventually struck down by the state Supreme Court. The state's teacher union was so dramatically opposed to Bush that it spent money on independent television ads that helped propel little-known Tampa lawyer Bill McBride past former U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno. One of the emerging narratives happening in Florida politics now is that current Gov. Rick Scott has slowly begun challenging the underpinnings of some of the reforms, such as high-stakes testing. While Scott remains a firm backer of vouchers, he advocated this week for requiring students who receive vouchers to take the same tests as public school students. This is a stark turn-around from the position that has been taken by Bush and his allies.

2. Bush was staunchly pro-life during his terms as governor and was at the heart of the Terri Schiavo controversy. Bush's role in trying to keep Schiavo alive could in fact harm him during a run for the presidency. Not only did he support the legislation that attempted to bypass court rulings dealing with Schiavo but there were stories at the time that Bush contemplated sending in law-enforcement to seize Ms. Schiavo. The governor's office officially denied the reports at the time, but it would very likely there would be a re-airing of the entire controversy.

3. Bush's fiscal bonafides. While he was governor, state spending continued to rise as the continued rise in the real estate market led to record heights in the amount of state taxes that were taken in. But Bush also pursued some of the largest tax cuts in the history of the state _ including pushing for $1 billion worth of tax cuts in his first year in office. His handling of state finances was rewarded with stellar triple AAA bond ratings.

4. Bush took on public sector employees and their unions. During his term in office, Bush tried to make major reforms in public employee pensions. He was unsuccessful in his bid to force all new state employees to choose a 401 (K) styled plan but he got it an optional version. Bush also successfully argued for _ and got approval from the Legislature _ to reclassify roughly 16,000 career service employees into positions where they no longer had the same job protections.

5. Bush took the charge in eliminating some of the affirmative action programs in place in the state. Bush signed an executive order that removed affirmative action policies in state purchasing and got the state panel that oversaw the state university system to revamp admission policies to remove race as factor for consideration. During his first run for office in 1994, Bush was asked by a woman what he would do for black people if he were elected. "Probably nothing,'' Bush said at the time. Bush's push against affirmative action sparked a backlash led by then State Sen. Kendrick Meek and resulted in one of the largest protests ever on the steps of the Capitol. Meek and others used their anger over Bush's actions to rally voters against Bush's brother in the 2000 presidential election (and we know how that turned out in Florida.)

And if that wasn't enough consider this: Bush overhauled the death penalty, pushed through a huge expansion in the use of economic incentives to try to jumpstart the biotech industry, rallied voters to repeal a high-speed rail mandate, went after trial lawyers by trying to limit medical malpractice lawsuits, tried to undo a constitutional amendment (pushed by his nemesis Kendrick Meek) that mandated smaller class sizes, strengthened the power of the governor over the judiciary, and responded forcefully and efficiently to eight hurricanes that hit the state in 2004 and 2005.

The one area where Bush has been at odds with his fellow conservatives is over the issue of immigration. While Rubio's position on immigration has evolved and shifted as his political career has advanced, the governor has taken some stances that could cost him votes. Bush has not only criticized the tone and rhetoric about the issue, but he himself has even taken stances that illegal immigrants should be given access to driver's licenses.

As the speculation about Bush's future continues to heat up, it will be interesting to see if there is a continued attempt to rebrand Bush into someone who doesn't resemble the man who led the Sunshine State for eight years.

The 6 counties that could make or break President Obama or Mitt Romney in Florida

In the run-up to today's election, there's been an avalanche of polls, a whole lot of spin and a lot of competing predictions about who will win Florida.

Complaints from conservatives have been that the polls have undersampled Republicans and attributed higher turnout to Democrats than will materialize. Democrats, meanwhile, have also questioned the polling models in different ways, including whether there has been an undersample of young people.

Lost in this back-and-forth is a recognition that the election of 2008 isn't quite what it is made out to be here in Florida.

The dominant thinking is that Barack Obama motivated minority voters and young people and created a surge of turnout in 2008.

But what some may have forgotten is that Republican John McCain got more votes in 2008 than President George W. Bush did when he took Florida in 2004.

McCain got 4.04 million votes when he lost the state while Bush received 3.96 million.

The counter-argument, of course, well there was population growth and more voters so it makes sense McCain got more votes.

But there was actually a higher percentage turnout in several counties that McCain won.

Take Brevard County which runs down the east Coast and is home to Cape Canaveral.

Turnout four years ago in this Republican-dominated county was actually 82.5 percent compared to nearly 79 percent in 2004. Turnout was higher in other red counties such as Clay, Lake, Lee, Pasco, Polk, Santa Rosa, Seminole, and St. John's.

Of course despite this McCain won 53 out of Florida's 67 counties. President Bush, by contrast, won 57 out of 67 counties during the 2004 elections.

The question that needs to be asked is whether or not the ongoing changes in demographic makeup in Florida _ and which continued over the last four years _ have scrambled up the traditional thinking about this state.

For example, there are now 1.66 million Hispanic voters compared to 1.35 million just four years ago. Back in 2008 the number of black registered voters actually outnumbered Hispanics. The total number of black voters grew as well from 1.46 million to 1.62 million.

The end result? Even though the number of white registered voters increased overall their percentage of the electorate actually shrank. So four years ago when Obama won the state whites made up 69.1 percent of the electorate. That number has dropped to 66.5 percent.

Certainly the makeup of the Hispanic vote is not like it is in other states _ and Florida's Cuban-Americans have been reliable Republican voters. Another argument has been that Central Florida Hispanics _ many of whom are Puerto Rican _ don't care as much about GOP nominee Mitt Romney's hard line against immigration as other Hispanics.

But let's look at what happened in several key counties back in the last two cycles. These are the counties that will make or break the state for President Obama or former Gov. Romney.

MIAMI-DADE: This is the one that really jumps out. Turnout was actually HIGHER in 2004 when President Bush was on the ballot. Despite the lower turnout McCain nearly got as many votes - 360,000 - that Bush did. So McCain nearly duplicated what the Spanish-speaking brother of the governor of Florida did in 2004. Of course, what happened is that the number of voters in Miami-Dade grew between 2004 and 2008. President Obama got 90,000 more votes than John Kerry did. That's nearly half of the 236,000 vote margin that propelled Obama to win the state. Even if you go with the Republican talking point that Obama's turnout machine will not replicate what happened previously there's a case to be made that Romney will likely have to do better than the past two GOP nominees in this pivotal county in order to hold down Obama's margin.

(UPDATE: Romney got less votes in Miami-Dade than McCain did in 2008, while Obama took in roughly 42,000 more votes than he did the first time around. And this all happened even though turnout was slightly lower than it was in 2008.)

HILLSBOROUGH: Behind Miami-Dade this is probably the second-most important county to watch on election night. Hillsborough had been trending Republican in recent years, yet four years ago Obama took this county. He got nearly 59,000 votes more than Kerry did despite LOWER TURNOUT than in 2004. Additionally, McCain took in only 236,000 votes compared to 245,000 votes for President Bush. If Obama wins Hillsborough then there's probably a good chance he will take the state.

(UPDATE: Obama did win Hillsborough, and therefore he won the state. Again Obama took in more votes in this county during his re-election bid than he did the first time around. While Romney got a higher vote total than McCain did or President Bush did - he still finished 36,000 votes behind Obama, which was roughly the same number as McCain.)

DUVAL: This county will be in the Romney column. No one doubts that. It's just a matter of how big a lead that Romney racks up here. In 2004 Bush won Duval with nearly 58 percent of the vote. McCain, however, won Duval by a slim margin of 50.6 percent.This is the county that Romney needs to do well in order to offset the margins in South Florida.

(UPDATE: President Obama did lose ground here, finishing with 47.8 percent of the vote in Duval, a decline both in percentage and raw totals from 2008. Yet despite that fact Romney only pulled in 1,000 more votes than McCain did. So in other words, Romney did not get the type of advantage he needed in Duval to offset votes elsewhere.)

ORANGE: This was another county that went big for Obama in 2008. He got roughly 80,000 more votes than John Kerry did four years earlier. But the cut in early voting days _ which as we have seen is favored by Democrats _ did have an impact in this county. Not counting the provisional ballots that were cast on Sunday _ the total number of voters who voted early in Orange dropped from just over 145,000 in 2008 to a little more than 127,000 this year according to Bill Cowles, the elections supervisor there. The county had these lower early voting numbers even though the number of registered voters in Orange has jumped up 14 percent. This would seem to suggest that Obama will not repeat the same margin he got previously.

(UPDATE: In the end the voter turnout in Orange County did dip from 2008. But it made little difference in the raw totals. Obama received about the same number of votes in 2012 as he did the first time around. Romney took in only about 2,000 more votes than the president.)

PINELLAS: This county is worth keeping an eye on as a potential trendsetter. Obama won Pinellas four years ago, while Bush won the county in 2004.But this county actually has FEWER active registered voters than it did in 2008. The voter registration gap between Democrats and Republicans is also smaller than it was previously.

(UPDATE: There was a significant decline in Pinellas. President Obama took in 9,000 fewer votes than he did in 2008. But Romney only picked up about 3,000 more votes than McCain did.)

OSCEOLA: There's a reason that former Gov. Jeb Bush and the Romney campaign made a stop in Kissimmee this past Saturday. This county in Central Florida could be the one to really watch on election night. Four years ago President Obama won the county and received nearly 60,000 votes to slightly more than 40,000 votes. That was a dramatic turnaround from 2004 when President Bush won the county with 43,000 votes. The stakes are even higher this year. Voter registration in this county has grown from just under 137,000 in 2008 to more than 163,000 this time out. The number of registered Democrats in this county grew from just under 60,000 to more than 71,000 while GOP registration went up from 40,96 to 43,588. In other words, this county may be the one that proves or disproves the Obama campaign's much hyped ground game.

(UPDATE: And the shift played out as expected. Obama's lead in Osceola was substantially bigger in 2012 than it was in 2008. His vote total went from just under 60,000 to more than 67,000, while Romney's vote total was nearly identical to McCain.)

Partisan wrangling, early voting, and limits on the power of the governor

So what constitutes an emergency?

Do long lines at a polling place, or the possibility of an election meltdown because of the surge in voting crowds constitute an emergency? And does the governor have the power to change that?

That in essence is one of the questions raised by the tug-of-war that has erupted in the last two days over early voting.

Gov. Rick Scott was asked Thursday by former state senator Dan Gelber, the Florida Democratic Party and the League of Women Voters to extend this year's period of early voting through Sunday instead of having it end at 7 p.m. on Saturday night as it now scheduled.

In his own letter Gelber warned that the long ballot (due largely to the Legislature placing the entire text of amendments on it) and the long lines was causing "greater dislocation" at the polls then in 2008. That was the year that former Gov. Charlie Crist wrote an executive order that resulted in early voting hours being extended beyond the statutory limit of 96 hours.

Scott, who signed the law in 2011 that cut the number of early voting days back from a maximum of 14 days to the current 8 days, told reporters on Thursday night that he would not grant the request.

Obviously there is a great deal of partisan wrangling going on here.

In the past year there have been federal lawsuits that challenged the reduction in early voting days. And the lawyers for the Legislature were hard pressed to come up with an explanation of why the early voting days were cut to begin with. In one memorable exchange in court earlier this year a federal judge said there was nothing in the record that showed him any good reason for the decision made by lawmakers to cut back on early voting.

Attorney George Meros at that hearing in Jacksonville contended that legislators could have had private conversations with election supervisors that led to that decision. This past week The Palm Beach Post reported that one of the architects of the law that cut back early voting helped write it after consultation with Republican Party officials.

But let's go back to 2008.

Crist's action at the time to extend early voting was met with disbelief from members of his own party. (Remember, he was still a Republican.) And just as importantly legislative leaders _ including then-House Speaker Marco Rubio _ were a bit skeptical of the legal reasoning that Crist used to extend early voting.

In essence, Crist declared that a "state of emergency" existed due to long lines at early voting locations. He used his emergency powers to order supervisors to keep polling places open. Download Executive_Order_Number_08_217

In his order Crist said that there is "a possibility that election officials will be unable to conduct an orderly election and thus residents in our state could be deprived of a meaningful opportunity to vote." So Crist basically used the power that the governor uses when there is a hurricane or other natural disaster to waive a state law.

I have already written in the past how Crist expanded the use of executive power beyond what traditionally had been done by previous governors, even former Gov. Jeb Bush.

The decision by Crist to extend early voting hours was seen by some Republicans as a decision that helped Barack Obama win Florida.

But at the time Rubio and other top Republicans were reluctant to go into court to challenge the executive order. Part of the problem was timing since the decision came just days before the election and it would have been hard to get a judge to halt the extended hours.

Gelber for his part has argued that the prospect of a problem with an election does in fact constitute an emergency. Plus, he cites the fact that Bush did it as well.

That's true but Bush extended voting hours by 2 hours on Election Day because of problems during the 2002 primary with late opening precincts and ballots that wouldn't scan.

Many major counties were using new voting machines for the first time that had put in place in the wake of the chaotic 2000 presidential election where the vote in Florida wasn't settled until more than a month after Election Day.

In one notable case during that primary former U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno _ who was running in the Democratic primary for governor _ had to wait to vote at her own polling place in Miami-Dade County because of problems with the machines.

Now if Election Day turns into a major hassle _ and there are problems at the polling places _ you can expect Democrats to tell Scott "I told you so" and they will use it as ammunition against him on the 2014 campaign trail.

But given the nature of this election you would have to wonder if Scott would have been challenged even if he did issue an executive order.

This time around _ unlike four years ago _ the election result is very much in doubt and it's hard to imagine either side taking a pass on this. At least, however, we would have gotten a judge to decide the extent of the governor's emergency powers.

(Editor note: Sorry for the lack of entries on this blog in the last few weeks. Look for that change in the days and weeks ahead. I truly do appreciate all of those who have enjoyed this blog _ and given me compliments on it since launching it three years ago. My plan is use it to augment _ and go beyond the stories that I do for The Associated Press.)

Rick Scott: Re-education, reboot or road to victory?

If there appears to be one thing that Gov. Rick Scott did during his first 18 months in office that he probably wishes he could take back it is his decision to recommend a major cut to education funding shortly after he was sworn into office.

Scott this week will embark on a "listening tour" where he will hear from teachers, parents and students on how to improve the education system. Scott will even have a student video crew follow him around and plans to have a blog where he documents what he is doing.

The announcement of the "listening tour" is the latest in a series of steps taken this year where Scott has tried to emphasize he cares about education. Others of course include his recent comments that he wants to make sure that teachers don't teach to the state's high-stakes test (even though there is a state law that prohibits just that) as well as his decision this past spring to push a budget that increased funding to public schools by roughly $1 billion.

The commencement of the listening tour comes when the Scott administration is now moving into what can arguably be called its third phase. He's now on his third chief-of-staff and the departures of communications director Brian Burgess and legislative affairs director Jon Costello mean that for the most part those who played a role in Scott's campaign are no longer left on the inside of the administration.

Burgess's move to the Republican Party of Florida should be seen clearly as the first step in preparing for the re-election battle that lies ahead in 2014. The party has already shown a willingness under Lenny Curry's chairmanship to spend money to bolster Scott's image. The placement of Burgess with the RPOF should be seen as a sign that this effort will continue and likely accelerate once the crucial fall elections are over with.

But in order to position himself for the next election Scott needs to connect with the Florida voters - and families - that care about education. Hence the need to show that this is an issue that he is deeply engaged with (and undo the damage caused by the budget cuts along the way.)

The only complication with all of this is that a lot of other prominent figures in Florida - notably former Gov. Jeb Bush - but also incoming House Speaker Will Weatherford and incoming Senate President Don Gaetz have their own education agendas.

When he was running for governor initially, Scott went all-in on the school choice front.

He pledged support to universal vouchers despite murky legal questions surrounding the concept. The governor, however, backed off when it became apparent that even his GOP allies were reluctant to embrace the idea given both the financial and legal consequences. (An amendment placed on this year's ballot would end the legal hurdles if 60 percent of voters say yes.)

Scott's team has already clashed with some in the Bush universe when the governor's people refused to back then-Education Commissioner Eric Smith. Smith resigned which led to a bumpy search for a successor and the decision to choose Gerard Robinson.

Now Robinson is gone as is the chairman for the State Board of Education who once was Bush's chief of staff. Word is that Robinson's decision to leave was completely voluntary, but problems with administration of changes to Florida's test-based grading system helped whip up considerable opposition to the continued reliance of high-stakes test such as the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test.

The question for Scott is where does he goes next after his "listening tour."

The governor this past year supported the controversial parental trigger bill (which is a priority for former Gov. Bush) and there are signs it will be brought back again in the spring after its narrow defeat in the Florida Senate. (The governor's office this summer had a meeting to discuss it according to Project Sunburst emails.)

The trigger bill is the one that would give parents the ability to change the structure of a school if it remains low-performing. Critics contend that the bill is a back-door way for charter school management companies to gain control of public schools.

Scott could also likely have the opportunity to set aside more funding to both K-12 and higher education in 2013 if the current fiscal outlook remains positive. (The initial positive forecast even contemplates that legislators will restore the $300 million cut from state universities this past year.)

But the governor will also have to decide how he will work with both Gaetz and Weatherford.

Weatherford - a big proponent of providing vouchers to low-income children - would be reluctant to do anything that moves Florida away from the path that has been on the last decade.

And both Weatherford and Gaetz has voiced support for extensive reforms to higher education although we have not yet seen anything specific yet.

Scott, however, has decided he can't afford to wait when it comes to start talking about education.

His decision comes at time when speculation is mounting that Gov. Charlie Crist could challenge him in 2014.

Crist, who was on the campaign trail with President Barack Obama this week, has already been featured in ads for his law firm Morgan & Morgan where he stresses the importance of teachers and urges people "to thank a teacher today."

Crist himself once backed many of the school reforms put in place by Bush but during his final year in office he vetoed the teacher tenure bill that Scott signed into law the following year.

If Crist does run he will do so with the likely backing of the teachers union. What Scott has to learn in the next few weeks and months is whether or not he can come up with (yet another) lesson plan that will allow him to contend that he cares about education just as much as other governors.

Now that the party is over: Reflections on Florida's convention

The Republican National Convention ended late last night in Tampa with the coronation of Mitt Romney as the GOP nominee.

Here's a few reflections and quick takeaways on what the first convention held in Florida since 1972 means for the state.

1. Enjoy the feeling Floridians. Given the close brush near the convention by Hurricane Isaac, one has to wonder when Florida will get the chance to host another convention. While the convention went off without any large scale problems the fact that the storm forced planners to cancel a day of events may leave future party leaders skeptical about a return to the Sunshine State.

2. Does the convention propel Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn into the conversation about Democrats who could run statewide? Buckhorn made the most out of being the chief ambassador for the region and he seemed to bask in the limelight that came with it. The fact that the convention was not marred by the serious protests and arrests that have occurred at other conventions could also help his reputation.

3. Did Hurricane Isaac help Gov. Rick Scott's image? Scott's decision to bypass convention events until the final night and instead focus on the state's response to Isaac brought praise from people like Buckhorn and Republicans such as Jeb Bush.

"It was smart of Gov. Scott to do his job of preparation and response,'' Bush said.

Bush is one person who knows that successfully handling hurricanes can help one's image. When he left office Bush remained immensely popular despite pushing policies that did not always poll well with voters. That popularity was due in part to the serious and organized way he dealt with the eight hurricanes that hit the state in 2004 and 2005.

Here's more on Scott's decision to focus on the storm and tourism instead of "yucking it up" at the convention.

 4. Was this Pam Bondi's one brief moment in the limelight?

Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi got her time during the convention doing a tandem with Georgia Attorney General Sam Olens criticizing the federal health care overhaul pushed by President Barack Obama.

Some commentators found the presentation confusing and stilted, but it may be more important to note that this might be the last hurrah for Bondi on this issue. Florida's court case is now over. And it will be up to voters to decide whether or not the federal care overhaul should be repealed or kept in place since Romney has vowed to eliminate it if he gets in office.

Bondi made the health care lawsuit her primary focus during her first two years in office. While she has also gone after prescription drug abuse, it seems that there could be a bit of vacuum for Bondi now that the health care lawsuit is finished.

Bondi, for example, has not adopted the same populist outlook that characterized previous AG's such as Charlie Crist and Bob Butterworth. Both Crist and former Attorney General Bill McCollum battled utility companies over rate hikes but Bondi so far has chosen to "monitor" rate hike proposals and not fight them.

5. The convention only enhanced both the reputations of Bush and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio.

Rubio's speech introducing Romney touched on many of the same themes he pushed during his 2010 campaign, including American exceptionalism and how his own biography is a manifestation of the American dream.

Where Rubio goes from here remains to be seen. We still don't know if how he would stand up to a constant vettting by the national press. Stories about Rubio's finances that were written by the Florida media would likely resurface in a much more specatcular fashion if he were to run for President.

As for Bush a run for national office is there if he wants it. Some speculate that Bush will stay on the sidelines and allow a younger generation to step forward. Maybe. But judging from the way he was treated at the convention he would become an immediate frontrunner for 2016 if Romney were to lose.

Can Charlie Crist really beat Rick Scott?

The signs that Charlie Crist could run for governor in two years appear to be everywhere, both figuratively and literally.

There are Charlie Crist billboards on the highways touting his current employer Morgan & Morgan. There was the recent Morgan & Morgan television ad where the former governor touts the virtues of teachers. There was Crist's endorsement of Democrat Bill Nelson for U.S. Senate as well as his decision to criticize the non-U.S. citizen voter purge being pushed by current Gov. Rick Scott.

and now: A hearty endorsement of President Barack Obama by the man who once proudly called himself a "Ronald Reagan Republican" and who once tore into then-Gov. Lawton Chiles after Chiles ran a bruising campaign to knock off Jeb Bush. Crist will also speak at the upcoming Democratic National Convention.

The timing of Crist's endorsement - which appeared in an op-ed of the pages of his hometown newspaper - was designed to coincide with the start of the Republican National Convention in Tampa.

Republicans expressed outrage on Sunday at the latest "betrayal" by Crist, who switched from GOP to independent before his failed run for U.S. Senate in 2010.

But if you talk to Republicans - and those in "Scott World" - there is actually a quiet confidence about the scenario of Scott taking on Crist during the 2014 elections.

First off, Crist - even with the potential backing of the White House (should Obama get re-elected)- will not have a clear path to a Democratic nomination. There are many Democrats who still view Crist with suspicion.

Then there is the reality that if Crist makes it on the ballot as a Democrat he will have to fight in a campaign where he gets significantly outspent by the incumbent governor. Barring some strange sequence of events such as where U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio decides to run for governor Scott will be the 2014 nominee.

That means the firepower of the party - which controls all of state government - will be aimed squarely at Crist.

For the 2014 elections, there will be no higher priority for the Republican Party of Florida than to re-elect Scott and destroy Crist.

The topics will be numerous, but expect the biggest contrast to be an ad that shows that Florida's unemployment rate rose significantly while Crist was in office. He will be portrayed as someone who was out-of-touch and indifferent while the state's economy imploded.

Then there's his political reinventions - and maybe even the unpleasantness of former RPOF chairman Jim Greer. (The Greer ads will basically point out that it was Crist who gave him the keys to the kingdom - and control of the party bank account.)

The one-plus for Crist is that his confrontation with Scott could be one of the biggest political stories of 2014 and could get plenty of earned media.

One big question, however, is whether or not Scott and Republicans will even wait until 2014 to seriously go after Crist.

RPOF Chairman Lenny Curry has already taken shots at Crist in blast emails. There have likely been early discussions about whether or not to run ads going after Crist. (Crist could find himself targeted by ads that do not have to follow any disclosure requirements since he is a public figure but not a candidate.)

That all said - this doesn't mean a Crist candidacy guarantees Scott an easy walk back into the governor's mansion.

Scott remains a polarizing figure who is unlikely to get widespread support from teachers, state workers, firefighters and police. He is not a great speaker and sometimes he appears ill at ease dealing with crowds.

The above chart shows why there remains a bit of worry in "Scott world."

You can quibble if you want about Quinnipiac University and its polls but the issue isn't one poll. It's the overall trend line that shows over his first 18 months in office Scott has really been unable to move his approval numbers much above 40 percent. The reasons are clear: He is deeply disliked by Democrats and his numbers among independents are way underwater.

It's the reason that the RPOF has spent at least $1 million - and climbing - on ads touting Scott this year despite other pressing elections on the near horizon.

It's why Curry puts out emails to the Republican establishment  touting the governor's accomplishments on the economy - even though presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney is running ads raising doubts about Florida's economy under Obama.

But that may be why taking on Crist could be a welcome scenario for those trying to get Scott re-elected.

While Crist is probably more likeable than Scott the Republicans can make the election a referendum on Crist's term as governor. Instead of defending Scott's record they get to attack Crist's. And that may prove to be a much easier task than going after a fresh face.