The Fine Print

5 biggest questions of 2012 session answered

There's one week to go and most signs (absent some meltdown ala the 2011 session) are that Florida lawmakers will have everything wrapped up by March 9.

Now if legislators fail to approve a bill on auto insurance there remains a possibility that Gov. Rick Scott could call them back into special session to handle that. Scott himself this past week downplayed any talk of special session, but changing personal injury protection auto insurance was on Scott's to-do list heading into session. PIP of course remains one of the most highly lobbied issues of the entire session and there remains the possibility that it could all fall apart in the next few days.

But even with that it is still possible to answer the 5 biggest questions that I had entering into the session:

Will redistricting keep moving smoothly and quickly? For the most part yes. The maps are done and now it's up to the courts to decide what the next move will be. Many observers speculate that the Florida Senate map will be kicked back but even if that happens it will be taken care of during a subsequent special session.

Does the casino bill really have a chance of passing? No, no and no. At the start of the session the mega-casino bill sponsored by Sen. Ellyn Bogdanoff and Rep. Eric Fresen consumed a fair amount of oxygen in the legislative process. But while it got through one committee in the Senate it floundered in the House (which is sort of what everyone expected.)

The next question is what happens next.

The casino idea is not going away, but at this point it's a matter of what form it takes next. Right now the buzz is there could be a push for a constitutional amendment in 2014.

Right after the House torpedoed the bill Bogdanoff said she had no desire to sponsor the bill next year. She said she had doubts that the legislation would get much further in 2013 than it did this year. Given that scenario then a constitutional amendment drive makes sense.

What does Dean Cannon really want? I'm not sure we really know. But if you were to guess it might have been the higher education bills including the one that will allow both University of Florida (Cannon's alma mater) and Florida State University to have wide latitude over setting tuition. Cannon in his speech on opening day warned that Florida's higher education system was "racing toward mediocrity" and he charged lawmakers to consider reforms.

The House has responded with the tuition bill - and a second bill - that not only change the finances of college but also change what it takes for college students to graduate. More on that here.

How serious is Gov. Rick Scott's budget veto threat? It must have been very serious. Scott said he wanted a "significant" increase in funding for education and wanted at least $1 billion more to go to public schools. Without too much grousing House and Senate leaders quickly complied with his request. It may not be enough to appease critics who point out that the increase doesn't match last year's cuts.

But Republican legislators have guaranteed that Scott will likely end his second session with a fairly good track record (and give themselves some cover heading into election season).

If lawmakers enact PIP reform then Scott will have gotten just about everything he asked for in his State of the State speech. His main defeat this session was his push to revamp the funding formula for hospitals. That proposal never really gained traction in either the House and Senate.

What issue not on everyone's radar screen now will blow up? Take your pick on this one. The knockdown battle over prison privatization that led to a defeat for a sitting Senate president. The behind-the-scenes skulduggery in the fight to become Senate president two years and four years from now. Or of course Sen. J.D. Alexander's push to create a stand-alone 12th university in Lakeland and his tug-of-war with Tampa Bay legislators over funding for the University of South Florida.

 

 

Halftime of the 2012 session: Bills are dying

House Speaker Dean Cannon warned prior to the 2012 session that there was "limited bandwidth" to take up a lot of contentious issues during this critical election year.

If there's any observation to be made at the halfway point, Cannon wasn't kidding.

Cannon made his comment to emphasize that his focus was largely on the once-a-decade chore of redistricting and the annual job of passing a new state budget.

In reality, what that has meant is that in the usually-much more disciplined House there hasn't been a lot of direction from leadership about lots of other bills. (The clear exception appears to be bills that are a top priority of Gov. Rick Scott.)

But that has meant it's been a much more wide open process in the House - and it has resulted in many bills and proposals quickly falling to the wayside.

The Senate, which is always trickier to figure out, has been equally difficult to predict this year.

In that chamber you have the power shifting from Senate President Mike Haridopolos to incoming Senate President Don Gaetz, an ongoing leadership battle between potential future Senate presidents Sen. Jack Latvala and Sen. Andy Gardiner, and the tug-of-war over prison privatization that led Haridopolos to dump Sen. Mike Fasano as a committee chairman.

In short, if you believe the chit-chat of some lobbyists - and some House members - no one is really sure who's in charge over in the Senate.

Whatever the reasons the result is this: Regardless of party affiliation bills have had a rough time and have been shot down.

The Florida Legislature hit its halfway point this week and its worth noting the major pieces of legislation that appear dead - or close to dead:

Legislation to bring mega-casinos to Florida

A bill sought by the insurance industry to limit bad faith lawsuits

A measure pushed by the Department of Health to block doctors from prescribing drugs if they have been arrested

Any major constitutional amendments dealing with property taxes

A mandate that businesses use E-verify to check the legal status of newly-hired employees

Legislation that would subject drivers to a ticket if they are caught texting while driving

Several contentious environmental measures, including one meant to block local ordinances on fertilizer

There are a whole host of other bills whose future is very murky to predict and that includes legislation to collect sales taxes from online retailers, a bill to ban Internet cafes, and a push by the business community to lower unemployment compensation tax bills.

And to reinforce this message even further, consider this, as of Friday the total number of bills passed this session by both the House and Senate is five.

Yep, you read that right.

Out of nearly 2,000 bills and resolutions that have been filed so far this session, only five have passed both chambers.

There are 28 days left.

5 biggest questions of the 2012 session

Florida's GOP-controlled Legislature kicks off its annual session on Tuesday amid the backdrop of the looming Jan. 31 presidential primary, a governor still battling low poll numbers, and legislative leaders who so far have shown a desire to keep the agenda limited during a critical election year.

The two main jobs are redistricting and passing a budget, but even that's not guaranteed at this point.

Senate President Mike Haridopolos has talked about waiting until later in the year to pass a budget. And while there appears to be a push to pass redistricting plans quickly there remains a chance that legal challenges to the final product could force legislators into a special session at some later date to adopt different maps.

Here at this point are the 5 biggest questions of the session:

Will redistricting keep moving smoothly and quickly? In anticipation of potential legal challenges, the GOP-controlled Legislature has already begun to accelerate to a possible final vote on changes for both Congressional and legislative districts. The Senate is poised to vote out its maps within the first few days of the annual session.

So far the political rancor has been fairly minimal although that could change quickly. Some South Florida Republicans have already been complaining about the treatment of U.S. Rep. Allen West due to a proposed shift that could make his seat more competitive. The question is whether state legislators will heed the complaints and push onward - or will they engage in more tinkering which could spark even more infighting.

There hasn't been a loud chorus of threats of lawsuits or recriminations yet. But it's hard to believe that debate and arguments over redistricting won't heat up and bog down the process at some point.

Does the casino bill really have a chance of passing? There's no doubt that one of the more enticing storylines of the 2012 session is the fate of the mega-casino bill sponsored by Sen. Ellyn Bogdanoff and Rep. Eric Fresen.

In the last few weeks, the list of proponents and opponents has been growing (although Gov. Rick Scott has deliberately chosen to remain rather quiet about whether he would sign the bill).

After a series of workshops, Bogdanoff late last week filed a massive rewrite of the bill intended to try to win over critics and votes. The measure now includes a voter referendum option, including giving voters in local counties the option of deciding whether or not to let local dog and horse tracks add slot machines.

Usually high-profile legislative fights pitting deep-pocketed groups against each other result in nothing getting passed. One of the main axioms of the Florida Legislature is that it's 10 times easier to kill a bill than to pass a bill.

Right now many Capitol observers are anxious to see if the bill can actually make it out of its first committee and then actually get passed by the full Senate. The fact that the Florida House has shown no signs of seriously considering the bill has fed speculation that the legislation is doomed for this year.

Of course, sometimes major initiatives take more than one year (and when leadership changes). So part of the battle for this year may be just demonstrating to doubters that a fair number of legislators are willing to support the bill this time around. That could set the stage for its return in 2013.

What does Dean Cannon really want? The session is starting with a bit of uncertainty because Cannon has been reticent to discuss what he would like to see happen during his last session as House Speaker.

Cannon last year waited until the eve of session to let everyone know he wanted to pursue far-reaching changes to the judicial branch, including a proposal to break up the state Supreme Court into two separate branches. (In the end Cannon got a watered-down constitutional amendment that makes some changes but none as dramatic as he initially proposed.)

Heading into this session Cannon has basically insisted his main priorities are the budget and redistricting, or the two things that the state constitution requires the Legislature to do this year.

That gives Senate Republicans less leverage to use against Cannon in trying to get some of their priorities passed and makes it harder for dealmaking to occur. (And it's worth noting that Rep. Will Weatherford, R-Wesley Chapel and the incoming House Speaker has sponsored zero bills so far this year as well. So there's limited leverage against him as well.)

How serious is Gov. Rick Scott's budget veto threat? Last month Scott did a turnabout on school funding. In less than one year he has gone from advocating a 10 percent cut in funding for schools to pushing a $1 billion increase and threatening to veto the entire budget unless there is a "significant" increase.

Initially Scott would not say what a "significant" increase is. But in later interviews, he said he likes $1 billion.

Scott has said his push for more school funding came after spending months listening to Florida voters who have told him education is a top priority. It may have also something to do with that fact that some in Scott's inner circle think that education cuts may have contributed a big part to his lagging poll numbers. Some public polls have backed this up, pointing out that some of other Scott's initiatives, including drug testing welfare recipients is popular.

The governor, however, relied on deep budget cuts in hospitals and health care spending in order to free up the money needed to increase funding for schools while also filling a nearly $2 billion budget gap. Such deep cuts may prove to be a hard sell to GOP legislators who are getting lobbied heavily by hospital officials who warn that the cuts will lead to layoffs.

So legislators must decide to either find other cuts to meet Scott's school funding goals - or they must pare back the increase sought by the governor to something more manageable. A much less likely scenario is that legislative leaders could shrug off Scott's threat since Republicans hold a supermajority in both the House and Senate and override a veto.

One other solution, of course, is to hope for extra revenue. And that's one advantage of potentially waiting for voting on a budget. If the economy continues to slowly recover, there's a chance that it will be easier to meet Scott's goal and avoid a confrontation.

What issue not on everyone's radar screen now will blow up? This is a reoccuring question because nearly every year there is a legislative initiative that seemingly comes out of nowhere and dominates debate and headlines in the final days of the session.

Part of it is due to the fact that the rules allow legislators to change bills at a moment's notice. Past examples include controversial bills dealing with abortion and elections. There are also some bills lurking out there that could quickly dominate part of this year's narrative. Drug-testing for state employees and another stab at mandating E-Verify for employers are just two such measures.

With so much attention concentrated on redistricting, it's easy to imagine a scenario where attention quickly shifts to something else if redistricting passes as easily as legislative leaders expect. 

It seems that each session of the Florida Legislature is like a hurricane, with its path and intensity quite unlike the storm that preceded it.

 

 

 

"Rick Scott could be at zero percent approval...."

It's no secret that Gov. Rick Scott's poll numbers have steadily gone downhill since he was first sworn in as governor.

There is some debate as to whether or not Scott's numbers are as bad as the latest poll from Quinnipiac University showed. Some newer GOP-leaning polls have suggested that the 29 percent number given to Scott by Quinnipiac may be too low.

Still Scott's poll numbers have triggered some debate and speculation on whether his unpopularity could aid President Barack Obama and the Democrats in Florida come next year.

There are some who obviously think mentioning Scott could help them.

U.S. Rep. Ted Deutch on Tuesday, for example, sent out a fundraising pitch for this quarter that asked his supporters to "send Rick Scott" a message as state lawmakers get ready to redraw districts.

But others say that the fate of Obama is tied to the national economy, not anything that Scott does.

"Rick Scott could be at zero percent approval, and if unemployment is at 10.5 percent or 11 percent, then Barack Obama is not getting re-elected,” Rick Wilson, a Republican strategist working for Adam Hasner in the United States Senate race in Florida, was quoted in a story that ran Tuesday in the New York Times.

To read the whole story, go here.

 

 

New showdown between Crist and Republican-led Legislature

A battle over proposed redistricting amendments is turning into an extraordinary legal fight between members fo Congress, the Republican-controlled Florida Legislature, Gov. Charlie Crist and even a former governor.

Last month U.S. Reps. Corrine Brown and Mario Diaz-Balart filed a lawsuit in Leon County to get one of two redistricting amendments sponsored by FairDistrictsFlorida.org thrown off the 2010 ballot. Brown, D-Jacksonville and Diaz-Balart, R-Miami contend the measure is misleading and would reduce the number of minorities elected.

But since then both the Florida House and Florida Senate have gotten permission to join the lawsuit and now are fighting to get Amendment 6 removed from the ballot. Amendment 6 would impose new standards for congressional redistricting. But the Legislature also wants the court to throw out another ballot measure - Amendment 5- that would apply to legislative districts only.

Crist this week has jumped into the legal fray as well, but he wants the court to throw out the lawsuit. Crist’s general counsel argues that both amendments was previously reviewed by the state Supreme Court before they went on the ballot and that the lawsuit is “prolonging a legal imbroglio at the expense of healthy political debate.”

The governor's legal filing slams the Legislature for launching "an attempt to block the people's opportunity to weigh in on the way their congressional and legislative districts are drawn."

Keep reading here.

New study says GOP - not Democrats - would benefit from redistricting change

There are two constitutional amendments that could be on the 2010 ballot that may do more to shake up state government than whomever is elected to the governor's mansion.

They are so potentially threatening to the status quo that there is already talk of lawsuits, disenfranchised minority voters and fears of a Democratic takeover of the GOP-controlled government. Read all about it here at the Sarasota Herald-Tribune.

The two amendments sponsored by FairDistrictsFlorida.org would impose new standards on the Legislature when it comes to the drawing of both legislative and Congressional districts. The standards would require that districts could not be drawn to favor or disfavor an incumbent or a member of a political party and be compact if possible. While the group says it is bipartisan - and includes Republicans such as Thom Rumberger and Bob Milligan - some GOP operatives remain skeptical about the effort because it is getting bankrolled by a lot of groups with ties to Democrats.

Right now Democrats hold an edge in overall voter registration. But Republicans control the Florida Senate by a 26-14 margin and the House by a 76-44 split. Republicans will presumably be in control in 2012 when redistricting will take center stage again, but there are those who insist the new amendments would push the entire process into the courts and give Democrats an opening.

But here's an interesting twist: As part of the reporting of this story, I talked to Professor Jowei Chen of the University of Michigan. Chen and Professor Jonathan Rodden at Stanford University did a study that comes up with a fascinating premise.

The two professors concluded that Republicans would win 59 percent of the seats without any intentional gerrymandering.

In other words, Chen and Rodden conclude that Democrats are concentrated in urban areas, while suburban and rural districts tend to be "moderately Republican." The paper states that "the seemingly apolitical practice of requiring compact, contiguous districts will produce systematic pro-Republican bias."

Chen said they relied on the 2000 election because it is in essence a "tied" election. 

The paper then states "Our simulations indicate that as long as Florida is divided into any reasonable number of districts, Republicans will hold an electoral majority in 58-61 % of these districts. Furthermore, we show that as Florida is hypothetically divided into larger numbers of smaller districts, the size of this bias decreases. But in order for the pro-Republican electoral bias to disappear, Florida would be need to be divided into an impracticably large number of legislative districts."

Additionally "The relationship uncovered in our simulations is clearly reflected in observed electoral bias in Florida. Analysis of data from actual district-level election returns in both chambers of the Florida Legislature as well as the Florida delegation to the U.S. Congress indicates that Republicans can indeed expect at least a ten percent seat advantage with 50 percent of the vote. In short, a substantial share of Florida's observed electoral bias can be accounted for without any intentional manipulation on the part of mischievous Republican cartographers."