The Fine Print

Some things to take away from Florida primary (other than who won)

Well if everything goes according to plan Mitt Romney will leave Florida's Jan. 31 primary with a convincing victory that could likely give him the GOP nomination for president.

But there are other things to mull over once Romney leaves and the Tuesday night speeches are finalized.

Turnout/enthusiasm. You could see the hand-writing on the wall for the 2010 elections when you look at what happened in the primary elections. Nearly 1.3 million Republicans voted in the bitter primary for governor between Bill McCollum and Rick Scott. By contrast slightly more than 917,000 Democrats voted in Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.

At the time Democratic operatives pooh-poohed the difference, contending it would all change for the fall elections and that the Democratic voter registration edge would prove the difference in the general election. Democrats of course got trounced, losing the governor's mansion, seats in Congress and spots on the Cabinet.

It doesn't matter that Alex Sink got 2.55 million votes. She still wound up losing to Scott despite Scott's background (think Columbia/HCA and the record fine for Medicare fraud after he was forced to leave the company.) Republicans did a better job of getting their voters out to the polls.

As of Monday, more than 623,000 Republicans had voted early or absentee in the primary.

Four years ago more than 1.94 million Republicans voted in a wide-open presidential primary held at roughly the same time.

There will be some attempt to say these numbers are skewed and point out that Amendment 1 (a measure to cut property taxes) was on the ballot during the same election.

But if Republicans dramatically fall short of the 1.94 million - or surpass that total - it could yield some clues about the overall intensity of the GOP base heading into the fall elections.

Yes, I realize that Republican voters will be fired up to cast a vote against President Barack Obama in November, but I have to think the Obama campaign will be look deeply into these turnout numbers to gauge how rough it may be to win Florida in November. Additionally, you can expect both parties to spin these numbers as well.

How did Romney fare in particular counties?

Some colleagues in the press have already ticked off some of the counties they are paying attention to, such as Pinellas or Miami-Dade or Duval.

Miami-Dade remains one of the most pivotal because Romney fared so badly there during the 2008 presidential primary. Miami-Dade has nearly 265,000 Hispanic Republicans - or more than half of the state's total. More than 70 percent of GOP voters in that county identify themselves as Hispanic. A big win there will prove that Romney's position on immigration did not hurt him there and may not be the wedge issue that Democrats keep hoping it will be (at least here in Florida.)

Other counties that will be worth looking at are those in Southwest Florida.

Romney won Collier and Lee counties back in January 2008, but one can argue that was before the full impact of the meltdown of the housing market left its mark there. If Romney falters in these two safe GOP counties, it could be interpreted that some of the attacks on him (and which will likely be copied by the Obama campaign) worked.

Early voting/absentee ballots

On a lesser note, it will be interesting to see how many Republicans voted absentee and voted early versus showing up on primary day given the aversion that some GOP legislators have to early voting.

If primary day voting is slow, you can expect an uptick in complaints about early voting. Some legislators such as Sen. Ellyn Bogdanoff have long complained that early voting hurts the process, especially what she calls "grassroots" candidates who do not have the resources to match a more-established, well-funded candidate.

Angry Republicans lash out at Florida GOP leaders over primary move

Top Republicans in Florida late last month pushed to have the state move up its presidential primary to Jan. 31.

The argument this year - as it was in 2008 - is that this would ensure that presidential candidates would pay attention to Florida.

The latest news is that the Republican National Committee has signed off on a plan to allow the primary to be a winner-take-all contest. This means even though Florida is still losing half of its delegates to the 2012 Republican National Convention the 50 delegates up for grabs remains a valuable prize to the GOP presidential contenders.

More on that here.

But it is also clear that many of the "grassroots" Republicans aren't happy about the decision by top Republicans to buck RNC rules.

It has already been reported that National Committeeman Paul Senft loudly protested the move shortly before the vote.

But emails obtained on behalf of the Associated Press show that Senate President Mike Haridopolos was hit up with lots of angry messages about the potential primary move, which some saw as a way to help some of the candidates, including former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, although House Speaker Dean Cannon is backing Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

Take this email from Lakeland Tea Party leader Mark LaMons and his wife Alison:

"We do not appreciate living in a state, that on more than one occasion, has become a laughing stock as it pertains to elections," their email says. "But that is minor compared to the outright subversion of the will of the people. It is one thing to have the Democrats try to steal an election but to have our own party manipulate the system to advantage a particular candidate is unconscionable."

Here's some of the other sentiments:

Rebecca Walker of Fernandina Beach wrote Haridopolos and ticked off many reasons, including that it was "plain rude" to break RNC rules after the convention was awarded to the state.

"It is breaking the rules and that is just wrong,'' Walker wrote. "I feel like doing this will give the RPOF a black eye in the eyes of the nation. It is wrong, and if the RPOF does this, I for one will be embarrassed and ashamed of our party."

Cindy Kucharski of North Fort Myers wrote a lengthy email to Haridopolos where she says that "whoever came up with this lame idea of moving the primary up is not working for the best interest of the party or the current and future candidates....It's almost as though our party has been infiltrated by an element who wishes to destroy the democratic process."

She also wrote this: "I am a political activist. It is a rare day that I do not send a letter to a legislator - not only elected officials from Florida, but from all over the country. I pay attention. I watch CSPAN. I listen to talk radio. I research candidates on the Internet. I go to hear them speak when making my mind who to vote for. However half the people I meet are ignorant of the issues, too lazy to go out to a candidate forum, many too lazy to even request an absentee ballot and send it in.

You know the electorate is alarmingly apathetic and it takes a lot of motivation to get out the vote. By moving the primary date you decrease the time possible the motivate the unwashed masses."

Later she continues: "My disappointment in the Republican Party continues. I basically refuse to financially support RPOF or RNC. However, I work tirelessly for a candidate I support and have been very pleased at the victories of Marco Rubio and Rick Scott - in spite of their initial lack of support from their own parties. I was so disgusted with the Republican Party that I was ready to change my voter registration from Republican - and only stayed in the party because I realized candidates like Marco need the support of conservative primary voters."

Rick Hartley a Republican State Committeeman from Duval County wrote to Haridopolos and said: "Do not hijack the primary for Romney! This stinks."

Bill Landes from Polk County wrote Cannon, Haridopolos and members of the panel that was voting on the primary date: "I personally feel this sounds as a personal political move for self personal gain."

Carole Reid, a state committeewoman from Putnam County, wrote: "The Republican Party and its legislative leaders remind me of children who don't play by the rules but whine when they are penalized. It is time for these leaders to understand that, as adults, we do not pick and choose rules and laws we wish to adhere to, but rather work to change those with disagree with."

 

 

What if the unthinkable happens at Presidency 5?

(Sorry - for this blog being on hiatus for so long, but it's back for good.)

The three day gathering of Republicans known as Presidency 5 will come to fruition later today when the Republican Party of Florida announces the results of its much ballyhooed straw poll.

Gov. Rick Scott and others have touted the poll as a true indicator of who have the best shot to win the presidency. Scott has pointed out that in the past four polls the straw poll winner went on to win the GOP nomination and even the White House. Another argument is that Florida is a much more diverse state and that it is a microcosm of the state.

The conventional wisdom at this point is that Texas Gov. Rick Perry is the one to beat despite his performance in the Thursday night debate.

But there is also a considerable amount of buzz surrounding both Herman Cain and Ron Paul. Mitt Romney had made it clear that he's not actively competing in the straw poll despite the fact his name will be on the ballot.

The prospect of a Cain or Paul victory quietly has some Florida Republicans nervous.

The logic is this: What does it say about this high-profile national event if one of the frontrunners do not win. Will it take off some of the polish for the future?

Brian Hughes, spokesman for the Republican Party of Florida, brushed aside such talk.

"The party is excited for the delegates to have their opportunity to vote, we’re looking forward to seeing what the results are,'' Hughes said. "We anticipate to make national news with our selection."

It will probably be national news because there could be ramifications for Perry's campaign if he does not take the straw poll

It could be a lot of hand-wringing that doesn't amount to much, because theoretically, the next straw poll may come about for another eight years. And Florida will remain much in the spotlight due to the likely early Florida primary and the 2012 Republican National Convention.

But the reaction among top Florida Republicans later today could be interesting.

 

 

"Rick Scott could be at zero percent approval...."

It's no secret that Gov. Rick Scott's poll numbers have steadily gone downhill since he was first sworn in as governor.

There is some debate as to whether or not Scott's numbers are as bad as the latest poll from Quinnipiac University showed. Some newer GOP-leaning polls have suggested that the 29 percent number given to Scott by Quinnipiac may be too low.

Still Scott's poll numbers have triggered some debate and speculation on whether his unpopularity could aid President Barack Obama and the Democrats in Florida come next year.

There are some who obviously think mentioning Scott could help them.

U.S. Rep. Ted Deutch on Tuesday, for example, sent out a fundraising pitch for this quarter that asked his supporters to "send Rick Scott" a message as state lawmakers get ready to redraw districts.

But others say that the fate of Obama is tied to the national economy, not anything that Scott does.

"Rick Scott could be at zero percent approval, and if unemployment is at 10.5 percent or 11 percent, then Barack Obama is not getting re-elected,” Rick Wilson, a Republican strategist working for Adam Hasner in the United States Senate race in Florida, was quoted in a story that ran Tuesday in the New York Times.

To read the whole story, go here.

 

 

Who didn't raise money during the session?

This past week Roll Call did a story about the Republican Party of Florida and Gov. Rick Scott.

Down in the story was the following information: Scott did not raise money for the party during the 60-day legislative session as a "matter of policy."

When asked about it this week, top aides to Scott acknowledged that the information was accurate and that Scott did in fact refrain from raising money while lawmakers were in session and crafting new laws and policies for the state.

(There's no legal obligation for Scott to refrain from raising money. It is worth noting that Scott, however, still attended Lincoln Day dinners held by county GOP executive committees around the state. These events usually serve as fundraisers for local organizations.)

Scott's decision regarding fundraising is a contrast from other elected officials.

State legislators seeking federal office - and this includes both Democrats and Republicans during the last decade - have raised money for their campaigns during session.

This year that list included Senate President Mike Haridopolos, who is seeking to knock off incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson.

Haridopolos raised $2.6 million during the first three months of the year and an analysis done by the St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald Tallahassee bureau concluded that Haridopolos "received his biggest chunks of money from the special interests who wanted something out of the 60-day legislative session."

Haridopolos, it should be noted, said that he did not hold fundraisers once lawmakers began their session in early March. He also has continually noted that Nelson continues to raise money while Congress in session.

When asked about Scott's decision, a spokesman for the governor was quick to say that Scott's decision is not a "judgement" on anyone else.

"While the governor thinks it was appropriate for him he makes no judgement on the strategic circumstances other elected officials face,'' said Brian Hughes.

 

 

 

 

There's a few surprises tucked inside this year's elections bill

A major elections bill that is now headed to the House floor came under fire for the way it changes rules for voter registration groups and how it changes law regarding voter address changes.

Critics charged that it was a "voter suppression" bill.

But the legislation - HB 1355 - has several other major provisions that didn't get much attention.

The sprawling 151-page amendment that was adopted by a House panel on Thursday also does this:

* It changes next year's primary date back to Aug. 14, which means the election won't clash anymore with the date of the Republican National Convention. The current date for the primary is Aug. 28.

* It creates a new fundraising opportunity for people who thinking about jumping into a race. Under the legislation people who are "testing the waters" could start raising money that they could use to pay for polls, travel and telephone calls. It would appear by the wording that a person doesn't have to report these contributions or expenditures unless they eventually become a candidate. The language is written in a way to suggest that the total amount of funding that can be raised would be $10,000, but it's not exactly clear.

* It includes a provision that could lead to more legal challenges against candidates. Basically the bill states that if a judge throws a candidate off the ballot because they were not properly qualified a political party cannot put someone else on the ballot in their place.

* There's some new provisions related to minor parties that could have been inspired by the Republican Party smackdown with the Tea Party last year. In case you don't remember, a group registered the name with the state and put in candidates in several legislative races. Republicans cried foul over some of the candidates and tried to remove them from the ballot. There was also a back and forth from other Tea Party groups contending that the Tea Party registered with the state had nothing to do with real Tea Party activists. Anyway, the new requirements for minor parties contain a provision that if they are not carried out promptly that the state can then decertify the party.

* It tinkers again with the laws regarding third-party groups known as electioneeering communication organizations or 527s in such a way that it would allow them to remain in the shadows longer. The groups would not have to register with the state until they spend at least $5,000 either 30 days before the primary or 60 days before the general election. The law now says that the group must file it is raises money or spends money in that same time frame.

A Senate version of this legislation is scheduled to be considered on Friday morning.

It does have differences. For example, the Senate bill moves the primary date to Sept. 4. The Senate measure also does not include the "testing the waters" provision. Instead the Senate bill includes language that says that political parties, 527s and those new "affiliated party committees" or leadership funds can conduct polls to determine the "viability" of future candidates. Those poll results can be shared with the potential candidate and it will not be considered a contribution.

The Senate bill also cuts down on the period of early voting. Instead of starting 15 days before the election it would begin 7 days. This change is sure to draw fire from many Democrats since the perception is that Republicans rely on absentee ballots, while Democrats utilize early voting.

 

 

Rick Scott's long list of challenges

A beaming Governor-elect Rick Scott and his wife, Ann, showed up at the governor’s mansion on Monday night where they joined Gov. Charlie Crist and First Lady Carole Crist for a symbolic menorah lighting ceremony.

Scott helped 11-year-old Mendy Oirechman light the candles of a large menorah that was placed up against one of the front windows and he later held hands with Crist as they briefly danced with some of the rabbis in attendance.

The ceremony, which was started under former Gov. Jeb Bush, was a tangible sign of some of the many social responsibilities that come with being governor. But it also could be seen as a prelude of many of the large and small challenges that will confront Scott once he is sworn into office in early January.

During the half-hour ceremony, he was reminded of Florida’s insurance problems when he was asked whether he planned to follow Crist’s footsteps. Crist went to Jerusalem and placed a prayer in the Wailing Wall where he asked God to spare Florida from hurricanes.  Rabbi Schneur Z. Oirechman politely asked whether or not the mezuzah that now sits on the door jamb into Crist’s office would remain once Scott becomes governor. Crist back in 2007 took some heat from groups such as the ACLU for placing the religious symbol in his office.

But there are many other large challenges that are looming for the rookie governor whether it's the state budget mess, the dismal economy, Medicaid and even the brewing leadership battle for the Republican Party of Florida.

The complete rundown on Scott's challenges can be found here at the Florida Tribune.

Crist's demise leaves an uncertain legacy

With polls showing that he continues to lag behind rival Marco Rubio, the hour that Gov. Charlie Crist spent with David Gregory at Tuesday night’s U.S. Senate debate might be his final time in the national spotlight.

Crist, who had successfully climbed from the ranks of the state senate into the governor’s mansion, is now confronted with the prospect that his political career for now is over. His decision to bolt the Republican Party and run as an independent means that he will have few options after this year.

His political ascent was marked by several twists and turns and it is hard to imagine that the man now preaching about independence and moderation once accused Democrats of dirty tricks in getting then-Gov. Lawton Chiles elected over Jeb Bush back in 1994.

But as Crist exits the stage, he leaves behind an uncertain – and largely incomplete – legacy as Florida’s governor. Crist became the first governor to voluntarily give up the post after one term in the 40-plus years that governors have been allowed to seek re-election.

Lance deHaven-Smith, a professor of public administration and policy at Florida State University, said Crist’s legacy actually depends on how the election turns out next week.

“Crist tried to move his party and the state back toward the middle after eight rather polarizing years under Jeb Bush,'' notes deHaven-Smith said in an e-mail. “He did not accomplish much policy-wise compared to many other governors, but he contributed to significant improvements in the state’s civic culture.  If he is elected to the Senate, Florida is likely to see a continuation of this moderation in public office for both parties.  If he loses, well, his legacy of compromise and pragmatism may be short-lived."

David Colburn, a professor of history at the University of Florida and a long-time scholar of state politics, said that Crist clearly tried to work with both political parties and was not ideological in how he approached problems. An example of this, of course, was Crist's decision to embrace the federal stimulus in order to help ease Florida's budget woes.

“I think it is easy to dismiss Crist as a politician who is only interested in getting and holding office and that there really is not much to him,’’ Colburn said in an e-mail.  “Clearly he is not ideological and he made clear to more than one state political leader that "he was not Jeb Bush." By that he meant that he was willing to work with both parties to find solutions to critical issues facing Florida and that he did not dismiss government's role in improving the quality of life for Floridians.”

But Colburn also made it clear that Crist is unlikely to leave the same kind of impact that other governors left.

A full look at Crist's uncertain legacy can be found here at the Florida Tribune.

The not-so-clear cut Republican Party of Florida audit.

The Republican Party of Florida earlier this month released a much anticipated audit that was supposed to finally reveal the depths of the financial scandal that has occurred under the watch of former chairman Jim Greer.

The independent audit also suggested that Gov. Charlie Crist may have benefited as well from improper spending during the reign of his hand-picked party chief who finally forced to resign back in January.

But it now appears that the situation may be a bit more complicated than initially reported.

It turns out, for example, that even party officials now concede that they aren't sure if any of the money spent on a trip to Walt Disney World was spent directly on Crist.

"We're not asserting that it was for him," said Dan Conston, a spokesman for the party. "We're asserting he was there."

Meanwhile, it turns out that the party reimbursed Jim Greer for expenses associated with a New York City trip that the party now says was improper.

So is the audit wrong? Depends on who you ask and what you believe.

Read the entire Herald-Tribune article here.

Rubio: I am not under investigation nor will I ever be

The furor over the still unreleased Republican Party of Florida audit this past weekend prompted the campaign of U.S. Senate candidate Charlie Crist to take several shots at rival Marco Rubio. After a closed door session on Saturday, the party said it may sue to recover hundreds of thousands of dollars that Crist and former chairman Jim Greer spent on non-party related travel expenses.

Danny Kanner, a spokesman for Crist, said the party should worry about whether or not Rubio is under investigation for the way he used his Republican Party of Florida issued credit card instead of inferring that Crist may need to pay back thousands of money to the party. The Crist campaign says the move by the party is a political payback aimed at Crist, who bolted the party to run as an independent.

Rubio, however, flatly insisted on Friday that he is not under investigation by either the FBI and IRS - and he boldly predicted that he never will be.

"It's just not true,'' said Rubio following his well-received speech at the 2010 Victory Dinner at Walt Disney World. "I have never been contacted by anyone. I'm not going to because it's not true."

Rubio continued to insist that he used his RPOF credit card for “political purposes” and that the “few instances” that it wasn’t that it was “paid back at the time.”

It's clear, however, that there is some type of investigation into party finances that has been underway for some time now. And Al Hoffman, a former U.S. ambassador and top fundraiser for the party, said at the Saturday RPOF meeting that he has been questioned by both the FBI and IRS about party spending matters.

It's just another reminder that despite RPOF chairman John Thrasher's bold statement before donors and party faithful on Friday night that the "dark period" of the party is over there is still plenty of fallout that could come from Jim Greer-credit cards-Ray Sansom series of scandals.

Now it's unclear how much of this will unfold before Election Day. The trial of Sansom - the former House speaker charged with using his power as budget chairman to steer money to a political donor and developer - has now been scheduled for early next year.

Greer's trial on charges that he steered party money to a shell company that he set up with former executive director Delmar Johnson was initially scheduled for October. But Damon Chase, an attorney for Greer, said the case will not move forward until the defense team has had a chance to put under oath Thrasher, incoming Senate President Mike Haridopolos, and incoming House Speaker Dean Cannon. They all signed a proposed severance package back in January that says that what Greer did as chairman was "proper, lawful and appropriate."

"I can't wait for the depositions where you sit them down and ask them questions," Chase said this past week. "We're going to walk into court, and go, boom, boom, boom, with the testimony."

Haridopolos, Cannon and Thrasher said they aren't bothered by the prospect of giving a deposition.

"I look forward to justice being done in that case and look forward to cooperating anyway I can,'' Cannon said.