The Fine Print

Expenses already climbing in Scott re-election effort

A new installment of Inside the Tallahassee bubble news...

EXPENSES ALREADY CLIMBING IN SCOTT RE-ELECTION EFFORT

Here's an interesting couple of tidbits that jumped out in going through last week's campaign finance reports.

One could argue that the bid for Scott's re-election effort is already getting plenty expensive even though the Democratic field remains somewhat unsettled amid ongoing speculation about Charlie Crist and U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson.

Consider this:

The company run by Scott's main political consultant - Tony Fabrizio - has already been paid nearly $600,000 by the Republican Party of Florida since last August. This includes a $170,000 payment in December and another $277,000 payment in March for "polling" according to RPOF campaign finance reports filed with the state.

On top of that Scott's own electioneering communication organization _ Let's Get to Work _ also stroked a $32,150 check for Fabrizio's firm to pay for an "opinion survey."

Records also show that Let's Get to Work in just the last quarter paid Forward Strategies, the company run by well-known fundraiser Meredith O'Rourke, more than $110,000. O'Rourke of course was a prime fundraiser for Crist back when he was a Republican. She was pushed aside from her role as an RPOF fundraiser during the unpleasantness involving disgraced former chairman Jim Greer.

Of course one could argue that Scott is also piling up a large amount of cash in advance of what could be a bruising fight. It's just interesting to note the amount of money already going to the effort even before the Democrats have a nominee.

NON-EXISTENT PATRONIS-GAETZ FEUD?

Rep. Jimmy Patronis told his hometown newspaper late last week that as far as he knows there is no looming rivalry between himself and Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fort Walton Beach over the state Senate seat now held by Senate President Don Gaetz. Patronis has already filed for the seat _ which comes open in 2016 _ while Matt Gaetz has filed for re-election next year.

"There’s nowhere I’ve seen it documented — both publicly or through social media — that would give me anything to believe that he is intending on running for his dad’s Senate seat,” he told the Panama City News Herald.

Patronis made this comment in the wake of a stream of comments from Gaetz on his Twitter feed where he has questioned Patronis' votes and stances on a line of issues.

But Patronis himself helped fuel the fire of this rivalry on the House floor.

During a debate on a Gaetz-sponsored bill repealing the state law that requires that gas contain ethanol Patronis got up to tout how he had pushed a bill the previous year that removed penalties for gas stations that ignore the mandate.

He said he would support the Gaetz bill but then added this dig: "I don't know if it really makes a difference."

Another key moment on Friday: Gaetz and Patronis were two of the four no votes on the House bill that would allow U.S. born children of illegal immigrants to receive in-state tuition rates at state colleges and universities. One of the other no votes _ Rep. Dennis Baxley _ wound up changing his no vote to a yes after the fact and said he misunderstood what the bill did.

The bill was a top priority for House Speaker Will Weatherford, who urged its passage at the start of the year.

A no vote coming from two Republicans representing roughly the same part of the Panhandle might cause some to wonder whether there was a fear that the vote could wind up on mailer. Or maybe that's reading too much into it.

CAN'T BUY ME LOVE:

The Florida chapter of one of the main union for state workers contributed more than $21,000 to legislative candidates before the start of this year's session. This included a maximum $500 donation to 17 Republicans in the House and Senate.

But all nine GOP House members who received a contribution from the Amercian Federation of State, Council and Municipal Employees Council 79 voted in favor of an amendment sponsored by Rep. Seth McKeel, R-Lakeland, that cut the amount of a proposed state worker pay raise from $1,400 to $1,000. The amendment was approved over the sharp objections of Democrats.

The lone no vote on the amendment was Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fort Walton Beach.

Perhaps the most interesting vote in favor of the proposal came from Rep. Halsey Beshears, R-Monticello.

That's because Beshears ran a memorable campaign ad last fall entitled "Do What's Right" where Beshears said that as businessman he understood the value of treating employees right: "Here we rely on thousands of great men and women to contribute to our local economy. We need to grow it and make it stronger. That's why we need to be more supportive of our hard-working state employees."

 

 

 

How can Rick Scott regain momentum in 2013?

Amid the last round of lackluster poll numbers for Gov. Rick Scott political consultant Tony Fabrizio in mid-December wrote a one-page memo where he argued that it was way too early for people to write off Scott's chances for a second term.

Fabrizio used an interesting analogy: If President Barack Obama could win Florida a second time so could Scott. Download 12-19-12 Memo on Q Poll

 "Anyone who dismisses Governor Scott and his chances does so at their own peril. Governor Scott has nearly a year longer to reverse negative numbers similar to what the President had, therefore it seems irresponsible and hasty to count the governor out from making an equal, if not stronger, turn around."

Democrats this past weekend loudly announced that Scott's defeat will be their primary focus in the next cycle. The challenge of the Democrats, however, will be the ability of the party to have the resources to compete with what could be a very expensive race. And make no mistake: There are some in "Scott world" who are not troubled by former Gov. Charlie Crist as the nominee. That's because this will allow the campaign team to draw a clear contrast, especially when it comes to comparing how the state's economy fared under Crist and how it has fared under Scott.

It could also be argued that some of Scott's recent policy initiatives on tuition, voting and now teacher pay raises are aimed squarely at muting Crist on those same issues. Crist for example in 2009 signed the bill that gave universities in Florida the ability to raise tuition up to 15 percent a year until Florida's tuition rates reach the national average. Contrast that to Scott's firm insistence that tuition be held flat.

But the central question remains: What can Scott do on his own to turn things around in the coming year and heading into 2014?

The plain fact is that governors - unlike the president - have a much more limited fashion in which to engage with the public and convince them they are doing a good job.

One way is completely out of Scott's control: Show leadership through a crisis such as a natural disaster. Part of the enduring legacy - for example - of former Gov. Jeb Bush is the way he dealt with the wave of hurricanes that hit the state.

The difficulty for Scott rebuilding his brand and image in the second half of his term is that in many ways he's already been like three different governors.

Thanks to three different chiefs of staff he has approached governing, his agenda and his interaction with the press in distinct ways.

The first phase of Scott's governorship - where he was surrounded by people who helped his campaign including defacto chief of staff Mary Anne Carter - the governor staked out positions that excited the base of GOP voters who propelled him in the Republican primary and helped him get a narrow win over Democrat Alex Sink. He unveiled a budget that cut funding for education, he rejected billions in federal aid for high speed rail, he clashed with the Florida Legislature and his staff had a bunker mentality with the press.

The second phase under Steve MacNamara included a decision to have Scott engage in a two-way strategy with the press: Open up more to the mainstream media while also appearing on conservative talk radio shows to keep the base engaged. Also put in place was a more calculated strategy of trying to work with the Legislature. Take on the winnable battles like auto insurance reforms, avoid direct engagement (like in casino gambling) on issues that have an uncertain chance of success. Scott jettisoned parts of his campaign agenda such as pushing tough new laws on immigration. He became more accommodating to legislative initiatives and even embraced some of them such as the creation of Florida Polytechnic University. And Scott tried to undo the damage caused in the first phase by pushing for a funding increase in education.

Now with current chief of staff Adam Hollingsworth we have the third phase. Yet another strategy with the press. There are attempts to appear less rigid and more open to dialogue with opponents (hence the "discussions" over Obamacare with Washington D.C. or the dinner with top officials with the Florida Education Association.) And there's even a full 180-turn on hot topics such as voting where Scott - who signed the law that cut early voting days and defended it court - is now advocating an expansion of early voting beyond what was previously in place.

Moving ahead then here's the avenues left for Scott to try to change his trajectory with voters (outside the hope that the economy will continue to grow and that Scott will get the credit.)

SCOTT'S LEGISLATIVE AGENDA: Like it or not Scott's third year in office will in many ways revolve around what he accomplishes this spring. He will be judged by how much of his agenda is accepted or rejected by the GOP-controlled Legislature. Scott this week will present a budget that in many ways will attempt to highlight his new priorities, such as a flat across the board pay raise for teachers, a freeze on university tuition hikes and a cut in sales taxes for the purchase of equipment used in manufacturing. (More on this later this week)

But it should not be assumed that top lawmakers will bend to Scott's wishes as evidenced by the initial lackluster enthusiasm given Scott's teacher pay raise proposal. And we still don't have a clear idea on what will happen to the implementation of Obamacare, especially on expansion of Medicaid that is now an optional part of the federal health care overhaul. If Scott rejects expansion - which appears likely given his recent statements - will lawmakers buck him and dare the governor to veto it?

Scott's trump card, of course, is that he has the ability to shoot down any legislative proposals that he dislikes and he can use that as leverage to get what he needs.

Given Scott's recent populist turn on voting and teacher pay raises it will be interesting to see if he uses the veto pen as a way to distinguish himself from the Legislature. For example what does the governor do if a bill raising insurance rates for the 1.3 million customers of Citizens Property Insurance were to cross his desk on the eve of this year's hurricane season?

KEEP UP OPPOSITION TO THE PRESIDENT: In some ways Scott was actually better served by having President Barack Obama getting re-elected than having Republican Mitt Romney win. The down side to Obama's re-election is that the president and his allies have the capacity to assist the campaign of someone like newly-minted Democrat Crist. But Obama in the White House gives Scott - and the Republicans in general - something to rail about heading into 2014. You can see the narrative: "I stood up to the president on government controlled health care, we improved the economy without his help, we will not go along with his agenda on guns." You get the picture. And if Obama's numbers go underwater again then Scott gets to link Crist to the president.

SCOTT'S MEDIA STRATEGY: Largely unnoticed by the general public Scott's media strategy has in fact been altered with the entrance of new communications director Melissa Sellers. That's not to say that everything has been smooth sailing (witness the brouhaha over the return of Scott's dog Reagan.) But the press office's new strategy does appear to be one of cooperation (when it benefits the Scott agenda) and less direct confrontation. This means giving some in the press access in the hopes it will create a story that bolsters the governor.

This doesn't mean, however, that the press office is passive. Far from it.

The governor's office appears to be engaged in trying to get Scott's message out (which is amplified by the Republican Party of Florida, whose media operation is lead by former communications director Brian Burgess). It is then left to some of the agencies to push back against stories that the Scott administration does not agree with. Several agencies, for example, in recent months have put out press releases sent to all media outlets that attempt to debunk stories and even editorials that have appeared. (The changes at the Department of Environmental Protection being a key example.)

Meanwhile, the governor's press office is tracking media coverage even more closer than ever before. Emails show that the governor's entire staff is now getting "news alerts" that include snippets of stories and even tweets by capitol press corps reporters just moments after they hit the web and Twitter.

So will it all add up?

It's hard to say.

Part of the difficulty for those working for Scott is some of the missteps in the first two years have been self-inflicted. Democrats may not like some of Scott's policy initiatives but some of them have polled well with the general public i.e. drug testing for welfare recipients.

Those who have dealings with Scott will tell you up front that he studies details and takes times to understand complex policy issues.

But in many ways he has had to "grow up" in public and has drawn attention in ways he probably didn't intend (such as the incident with the King of Spain). In other instances, his staff did not appear to anticipate the political fallout over a decision (i.e. the cutting of the education budget, the signing of the Cuba-crackdown bill.)

The balancing act in the months ahead is whether Scott can find success with the Legislature and the economy and finally reverse his flat-lining poll numbers. Because even during a campaign there's only so much love money can buy.

Partisan wrangling, early voting, and limits on the power of the governor

So what constitutes an emergency?

Do long lines at a polling place, or the possibility of an election meltdown because of the surge in voting crowds constitute an emergency? And does the governor have the power to change that?

That in essence is one of the questions raised by the tug-of-war that has erupted in the last two days over early voting.

Gov. Rick Scott was asked Thursday by former state senator Dan Gelber, the Florida Democratic Party and the League of Women Voters to extend this year's period of early voting through Sunday instead of having it end at 7 p.m. on Saturday night as it now scheduled.

In his own letter Gelber warned that the long ballot (due largely to the Legislature placing the entire text of amendments on it) and the long lines was causing "greater dislocation" at the polls then in 2008. That was the year that former Gov. Charlie Crist wrote an executive order that resulted in early voting hours being extended beyond the statutory limit of 96 hours.

Scott, who signed the law in 2011 that cut the number of early voting days back from a maximum of 14 days to the current 8 days, told reporters on Thursday night that he would not grant the request.

Obviously there is a great deal of partisan wrangling going on here.

In the past year there have been federal lawsuits that challenged the reduction in early voting days. And the lawyers for the Legislature were hard pressed to come up with an explanation of why the early voting days were cut to begin with. In one memorable exchange in court earlier this year a federal judge said there was nothing in the record that showed him any good reason for the decision made by lawmakers to cut back on early voting.

Attorney George Meros at that hearing in Jacksonville contended that legislators could have had private conversations with election supervisors that led to that decision. This past week The Palm Beach Post reported that one of the architects of the law that cut back early voting helped write it after consultation with Republican Party officials.

But let's go back to 2008.

Crist's action at the time to extend early voting was met with disbelief from members of his own party. (Remember, he was still a Republican.) And just as importantly legislative leaders _ including then-House Speaker Marco Rubio _ were a bit skeptical of the legal reasoning that Crist used to extend early voting.

In essence, Crist declared that a "state of emergency" existed due to long lines at early voting locations. He used his emergency powers to order supervisors to keep polling places open. Download Executive_Order_Number_08_217

In his order Crist said that there is "a possibility that election officials will be unable to conduct an orderly election and thus residents in our state could be deprived of a meaningful opportunity to vote." So Crist basically used the power that the governor uses when there is a hurricane or other natural disaster to waive a state law.

I have already written in the past how Crist expanded the use of executive power beyond what traditionally had been done by previous governors, even former Gov. Jeb Bush.

The decision by Crist to extend early voting hours was seen by some Republicans as a decision that helped Barack Obama win Florida.

But at the time Rubio and other top Republicans were reluctant to go into court to challenge the executive order. Part of the problem was timing since the decision came just days before the election and it would have been hard to get a judge to halt the extended hours.

Gelber for his part has argued that the prospect of a problem with an election does in fact constitute an emergency. Plus, he cites the fact that Bush did it as well.

That's true but Bush extended voting hours by 2 hours on Election Day because of problems during the 2002 primary with late opening precincts and ballots that wouldn't scan.

Many major counties were using new voting machines for the first time that had put in place in the wake of the chaotic 2000 presidential election where the vote in Florida wasn't settled until more than a month after Election Day.

In one notable case during that primary former U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno _ who was running in the Democratic primary for governor _ had to wait to vote at her own polling place in Miami-Dade County because of problems with the machines.

Now if Election Day turns into a major hassle _ and there are problems at the polling places _ you can expect Democrats to tell Scott "I told you so" and they will use it as ammunition against him on the 2014 campaign trail.

But given the nature of this election you would have to wonder if Scott would have been challenged even if he did issue an executive order.

This time around _ unlike four years ago _ the election result is very much in doubt and it's hard to imagine either side taking a pass on this. At least, however, we would have gotten a judge to decide the extent of the governor's emergency powers.

(Editor note: Sorry for the lack of entries on this blog in the last few weeks. Look for that change in the days and weeks ahead. I truly do appreciate all of those who have enjoyed this blog _ and given me compliments on it since launching it three years ago. My plan is use it to augment _ and go beyond the stories that I do for The Associated Press.)

Rick Scott: Re-education, reboot or road to victory?

If there appears to be one thing that Gov. Rick Scott did during his first 18 months in office that he probably wishes he could take back it is his decision to recommend a major cut to education funding shortly after he was sworn into office.

Scott this week will embark on a "listening tour" where he will hear from teachers, parents and students on how to improve the education system. Scott will even have a student video crew follow him around and plans to have a blog where he documents what he is doing.

The announcement of the "listening tour" is the latest in a series of steps taken this year where Scott has tried to emphasize he cares about education. Others of course include his recent comments that he wants to make sure that teachers don't teach to the state's high-stakes test (even though there is a state law that prohibits just that) as well as his decision this past spring to push a budget that increased funding to public schools by roughly $1 billion.

The commencement of the listening tour comes when the Scott administration is now moving into what can arguably be called its third phase. He's now on his third chief-of-staff and the departures of communications director Brian Burgess and legislative affairs director Jon Costello mean that for the most part those who played a role in Scott's campaign are no longer left on the inside of the administration.

Burgess's move to the Republican Party of Florida should be seen clearly as the first step in preparing for the re-election battle that lies ahead in 2014. The party has already shown a willingness under Lenny Curry's chairmanship to spend money to bolster Scott's image. The placement of Burgess with the RPOF should be seen as a sign that this effort will continue and likely accelerate once the crucial fall elections are over with.

But in order to position himself for the next election Scott needs to connect with the Florida voters - and families - that care about education. Hence the need to show that this is an issue that he is deeply engaged with (and undo the damage caused by the budget cuts along the way.)

The only complication with all of this is that a lot of other prominent figures in Florida - notably former Gov. Jeb Bush - but also incoming House Speaker Will Weatherford and incoming Senate President Don Gaetz have their own education agendas.

When he was running for governor initially, Scott went all-in on the school choice front.

He pledged support to universal vouchers despite murky legal questions surrounding the concept. The governor, however, backed off when it became apparent that even his GOP allies were reluctant to embrace the idea given both the financial and legal consequences. (An amendment placed on this year's ballot would end the legal hurdles if 60 percent of voters say yes.)

Scott's team has already clashed with some in the Bush universe when the governor's people refused to back then-Education Commissioner Eric Smith. Smith resigned which led to a bumpy search for a successor and the decision to choose Gerard Robinson.

Now Robinson is gone as is the chairman for the State Board of Education who once was Bush's chief of staff. Word is that Robinson's decision to leave was completely voluntary, but problems with administration of changes to Florida's test-based grading system helped whip up considerable opposition to the continued reliance of high-stakes test such as the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test.

The question for Scott is where does he goes next after his "listening tour."

The governor this past year supported the controversial parental trigger bill (which is a priority for former Gov. Bush) and there are signs it will be brought back again in the spring after its narrow defeat in the Florida Senate. (The governor's office this summer had a meeting to discuss it according to Project Sunburst emails.)

The trigger bill is the one that would give parents the ability to change the structure of a school if it remains low-performing. Critics contend that the bill is a back-door way for charter school management companies to gain control of public schools.

Scott could also likely have the opportunity to set aside more funding to both K-12 and higher education in 2013 if the current fiscal outlook remains positive. (The initial positive forecast even contemplates that legislators will restore the $300 million cut from state universities this past year.)

But the governor will also have to decide how he will work with both Gaetz and Weatherford.

Weatherford - a big proponent of providing vouchers to low-income children - would be reluctant to do anything that moves Florida away from the path that has been on the last decade.

And both Weatherford and Gaetz has voiced support for extensive reforms to higher education although we have not yet seen anything specific yet.

Scott, however, has decided he can't afford to wait when it comes to start talking about education.

His decision comes at time when speculation is mounting that Gov. Charlie Crist could challenge him in 2014.

Crist, who was on the campaign trail with President Barack Obama this week, has already been featured in ads for his law firm Morgan & Morgan where he stresses the importance of teachers and urges people "to thank a teacher today."

Crist himself once backed many of the school reforms put in place by Bush but during his final year in office he vetoed the teacher tenure bill that Scott signed into law the following year.

If Crist does run he will do so with the likely backing of the teachers union. What Scott has to learn in the next few weeks and months is whether or not he can come up with (yet another) lesson plan that will allow him to contend that he cares about education just as much as other governors.

Can Charlie Crist really beat Rick Scott?

The signs that Charlie Crist could run for governor in two years appear to be everywhere, both figuratively and literally.

There are Charlie Crist billboards on the highways touting his current employer Morgan & Morgan. There was the recent Morgan & Morgan television ad where the former governor touts the virtues of teachers. There was Crist's endorsement of Democrat Bill Nelson for U.S. Senate as well as his decision to criticize the non-U.S. citizen voter purge being pushed by current Gov. Rick Scott.

and now: A hearty endorsement of President Barack Obama by the man who once proudly called himself a "Ronald Reagan Republican" and who once tore into then-Gov. Lawton Chiles after Chiles ran a bruising campaign to knock off Jeb Bush. Crist will also speak at the upcoming Democratic National Convention.

The timing of Crist's endorsement - which appeared in an op-ed of the pages of his hometown newspaper - was designed to coincide with the start of the Republican National Convention in Tampa.

Republicans expressed outrage on Sunday at the latest "betrayal" by Crist, who switched from GOP to independent before his failed run for U.S. Senate in 2010.

But if you talk to Republicans - and those in "Scott World" - there is actually a quiet confidence about the scenario of Scott taking on Crist during the 2014 elections.

First off, Crist - even with the potential backing of the White House (should Obama get re-elected)- will not have a clear path to a Democratic nomination. There are many Democrats who still view Crist with suspicion.

Then there is the reality that if Crist makes it on the ballot as a Democrat he will have to fight in a campaign where he gets significantly outspent by the incumbent governor. Barring some strange sequence of events such as where U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio decides to run for governor Scott will be the 2014 nominee.

That means the firepower of the party - which controls all of state government - will be aimed squarely at Crist.

For the 2014 elections, there will be no higher priority for the Republican Party of Florida than to re-elect Scott and destroy Crist.

The topics will be numerous, but expect the biggest contrast to be an ad that shows that Florida's unemployment rate rose significantly while Crist was in office. He will be portrayed as someone who was out-of-touch and indifferent while the state's economy imploded.

Then there's his political reinventions - and maybe even the unpleasantness of former RPOF chairman Jim Greer. (The Greer ads will basically point out that it was Crist who gave him the keys to the kingdom - and control of the party bank account.)

The one-plus for Crist is that his confrontation with Scott could be one of the biggest political stories of 2014 and could get plenty of earned media.

One big question, however, is whether or not Scott and Republicans will even wait until 2014 to seriously go after Crist.

RPOF Chairman Lenny Curry has already taken shots at Crist in blast emails. There have likely been early discussions about whether or not to run ads going after Crist. (Crist could find himself targeted by ads that do not have to follow any disclosure requirements since he is a public figure but not a candidate.)

That all said - this doesn't mean a Crist candidacy guarantees Scott an easy walk back into the governor's mansion.

Scott remains a polarizing figure who is unlikely to get widespread support from teachers, state workers, firefighters and police. He is not a great speaker and sometimes he appears ill at ease dealing with crowds.

The above chart shows why there remains a bit of worry in "Scott world."

You can quibble if you want about Quinnipiac University and its polls but the issue isn't one poll. It's the overall trend line that shows over his first 18 months in office Scott has really been unable to move his approval numbers much above 40 percent. The reasons are clear: He is deeply disliked by Democrats and his numbers among independents are way underwater.

It's the reason that the RPOF has spent at least $1 million - and climbing - on ads touting Scott this year despite other pressing elections on the near horizon.

It's why Curry puts out emails to the Republican establishment  touting the governor's accomplishments on the economy - even though presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney is running ads raising doubts about Florida's economy under Obama.

But that may be why taking on Crist could be a welcome scenario for those trying to get Scott re-elected.

While Crist is probably more likeable than Scott the Republicans can make the election a referendum on Crist's term as governor. Instead of defending Scott's record they get to attack Crist's. And that may prove to be a much easier task than going after a fresh face.

Some things to take away from Florida primary (other than who won)

Well if everything goes according to plan Mitt Romney will leave Florida's Jan. 31 primary with a convincing victory that could likely give him the GOP nomination for president.

But there are other things to mull over once Romney leaves and the Tuesday night speeches are finalized.

Turnout/enthusiasm. You could see the hand-writing on the wall for the 2010 elections when you look at what happened in the primary elections. Nearly 1.3 million Republicans voted in the bitter primary for governor between Bill McCollum and Rick Scott. By contrast slightly more than 917,000 Democrats voted in Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.

At the time Democratic operatives pooh-poohed the difference, contending it would all change for the fall elections and that the Democratic voter registration edge would prove the difference in the general election. Democrats of course got trounced, losing the governor's mansion, seats in Congress and spots on the Cabinet.

It doesn't matter that Alex Sink got 2.55 million votes. She still wound up losing to Scott despite Scott's background (think Columbia/HCA and the record fine for Medicare fraud after he was forced to leave the company.) Republicans did a better job of getting their voters out to the polls.

As of Monday, more than 623,000 Republicans had voted early or absentee in the primary.

Four years ago more than 1.94 million Republicans voted in a wide-open presidential primary held at roughly the same time.

There will be some attempt to say these numbers are skewed and point out that Amendment 1 (a measure to cut property taxes) was on the ballot during the same election.

But if Republicans dramatically fall short of the 1.94 million - or surpass that total - it could yield some clues about the overall intensity of the GOP base heading into the fall elections.

Yes, I realize that Republican voters will be fired up to cast a vote against President Barack Obama in November, but I have to think the Obama campaign will be look deeply into these turnout numbers to gauge how rough it may be to win Florida in November. Additionally, you can expect both parties to spin these numbers as well.

How did Romney fare in particular counties?

Some colleagues in the press have already ticked off some of the counties they are paying attention to, such as Pinellas or Miami-Dade or Duval.

Miami-Dade remains one of the most pivotal because Romney fared so badly there during the 2008 presidential primary. Miami-Dade has nearly 265,000 Hispanic Republicans - or more than half of the state's total. More than 70 percent of GOP voters in that county identify themselves as Hispanic. A big win there will prove that Romney's position on immigration did not hurt him there and may not be the wedge issue that Democrats keep hoping it will be (at least here in Florida.)

Other counties that will be worth looking at are those in Southwest Florida.

Romney won Collier and Lee counties back in January 2008, but one can argue that was before the full impact of the meltdown of the housing market left its mark there. If Romney falters in these two safe GOP counties, it could be interpreted that some of the attacks on him (and which will likely be copied by the Obama campaign) worked.

Early voting/absentee ballots

On a lesser note, it will be interesting to see how many Republicans voted absentee and voted early versus showing up on primary day given the aversion that some GOP legislators have to early voting.

If primary day voting is slow, you can expect an uptick in complaints about early voting. Some legislators such as Sen. Ellyn Bogdanoff have long complained that early voting hurts the process, especially what she calls "grassroots" candidates who do not have the resources to match a more-established, well-funded candidate.

Angry Republicans lash out at Florida GOP leaders over primary move

Top Republicans in Florida late last month pushed to have the state move up its presidential primary to Jan. 31.

The argument this year - as it was in 2008 - is that this would ensure that presidential candidates would pay attention to Florida.

The latest news is that the Republican National Committee has signed off on a plan to allow the primary to be a winner-take-all contest. This means even though Florida is still losing half of its delegates to the 2012 Republican National Convention the 50 delegates up for grabs remains a valuable prize to the GOP presidential contenders.

More on that here.

But it is also clear that many of the "grassroots" Republicans aren't happy about the decision by top Republicans to buck RNC rules.

It has already been reported that National Committeeman Paul Senft loudly protested the move shortly before the vote.

But emails obtained on behalf of the Associated Press show that Senate President Mike Haridopolos was hit up with lots of angry messages about the potential primary move, which some saw as a way to help some of the candidates, including former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, although House Speaker Dean Cannon is backing Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

Take this email from Lakeland Tea Party leader Mark LaMons and his wife Alison:

"We do not appreciate living in a state, that on more than one occasion, has become a laughing stock as it pertains to elections," their email says. "But that is minor compared to the outright subversion of the will of the people. It is one thing to have the Democrats try to steal an election but to have our own party manipulate the system to advantage a particular candidate is unconscionable."

Here's some of the other sentiments:

Rebecca Walker of Fernandina Beach wrote Haridopolos and ticked off many reasons, including that it was "plain rude" to break RNC rules after the convention was awarded to the state.

"It is breaking the rules and that is just wrong,'' Walker wrote. "I feel like doing this will give the RPOF a black eye in the eyes of the nation. It is wrong, and if the RPOF does this, I for one will be embarrassed and ashamed of our party."

Cindy Kucharski of North Fort Myers wrote a lengthy email to Haridopolos where she says that "whoever came up with this lame idea of moving the primary up is not working for the best interest of the party or the current and future candidates....It's almost as though our party has been infiltrated by an element who wishes to destroy the democratic process."

She also wrote this: "I am a political activist. It is a rare day that I do not send a letter to a legislator - not only elected officials from Florida, but from all over the country. I pay attention. I watch CSPAN. I listen to talk radio. I research candidates on the Internet. I go to hear them speak when making my mind who to vote for. However half the people I meet are ignorant of the issues, too lazy to go out to a candidate forum, many too lazy to even request an absentee ballot and send it in.

You know the electorate is alarmingly apathetic and it takes a lot of motivation to get out the vote. By moving the primary date you decrease the time possible the motivate the unwashed masses."

Later she continues: "My disappointment in the Republican Party continues. I basically refuse to financially support RPOF or RNC. However, I work tirelessly for a candidate I support and have been very pleased at the victories of Marco Rubio and Rick Scott - in spite of their initial lack of support from their own parties. I was so disgusted with the Republican Party that I was ready to change my voter registration from Republican - and only stayed in the party because I realized candidates like Marco need the support of conservative primary voters."

Rick Hartley a Republican State Committeeman from Duval County wrote to Haridopolos and said: "Do not hijack the primary for Romney! This stinks."

Bill Landes from Polk County wrote Cannon, Haridopolos and members of the panel that was voting on the primary date: "I personally feel this sounds as a personal political move for self personal gain."

Carole Reid, a state committeewoman from Putnam County, wrote: "The Republican Party and its legislative leaders remind me of children who don't play by the rules but whine when they are penalized. It is time for these leaders to understand that, as adults, we do not pick and choose rules and laws we wish to adhere to, but rather work to change those with disagree with."

 

 

What if the unthinkable happens at Presidency 5?

(Sorry - for this blog being on hiatus for so long, but it's back for good.)

The three day gathering of Republicans known as Presidency 5 will come to fruition later today when the Republican Party of Florida announces the results of its much ballyhooed straw poll.

Gov. Rick Scott and others have touted the poll as a true indicator of who have the best shot to win the presidency. Scott has pointed out that in the past four polls the straw poll winner went on to win the GOP nomination and even the White House. Another argument is that Florida is a much more diverse state and that it is a microcosm of the state.

The conventional wisdom at this point is that Texas Gov. Rick Perry is the one to beat despite his performance in the Thursday night debate.

But there is also a considerable amount of buzz surrounding both Herman Cain and Ron Paul. Mitt Romney had made it clear that he's not actively competing in the straw poll despite the fact his name will be on the ballot.

The prospect of a Cain or Paul victory quietly has some Florida Republicans nervous.

The logic is this: What does it say about this high-profile national event if one of the frontrunners do not win. Will it take off some of the polish for the future?

Brian Hughes, spokesman for the Republican Party of Florida, brushed aside such talk.

"The party is excited for the delegates to have their opportunity to vote, we’re looking forward to seeing what the results are,'' Hughes said. "We anticipate to make national news with our selection."

It will probably be national news because there could be ramifications for Perry's campaign if he does not take the straw poll

It could be a lot of hand-wringing that doesn't amount to much, because theoretically, the next straw poll may come about for another eight years. And Florida will remain much in the spotlight due to the likely early Florida primary and the 2012 Republican National Convention.

But the reaction among top Florida Republicans later today could be interesting.

 

 

"Rick Scott could be at zero percent approval...."

It's no secret that Gov. Rick Scott's poll numbers have steadily gone downhill since he was first sworn in as governor.

There is some debate as to whether or not Scott's numbers are as bad as the latest poll from Quinnipiac University showed. Some newer GOP-leaning polls have suggested that the 29 percent number given to Scott by Quinnipiac may be too low.

Still Scott's poll numbers have triggered some debate and speculation on whether his unpopularity could aid President Barack Obama and the Democrats in Florida come next year.

There are some who obviously think mentioning Scott could help them.

U.S. Rep. Ted Deutch on Tuesday, for example, sent out a fundraising pitch for this quarter that asked his supporters to "send Rick Scott" a message as state lawmakers get ready to redraw districts.

But others say that the fate of Obama is tied to the national economy, not anything that Scott does.

"Rick Scott could be at zero percent approval, and if unemployment is at 10.5 percent or 11 percent, then Barack Obama is not getting re-elected,” Rick Wilson, a Republican strategist working for Adam Hasner in the United States Senate race in Florida, was quoted in a story that ran Tuesday in the New York Times.

To read the whole story, go here.

 

 

Who didn't raise money during the session?

This past week Roll Call did a story about the Republican Party of Florida and Gov. Rick Scott.

Down in the story was the following information: Scott did not raise money for the party during the 60-day legislative session as a "matter of policy."

When asked about it this week, top aides to Scott acknowledged that the information was accurate and that Scott did in fact refrain from raising money while lawmakers were in session and crafting new laws and policies for the state.

(There's no legal obligation for Scott to refrain from raising money. It is worth noting that Scott, however, still attended Lincoln Day dinners held by county GOP executive committees around the state. These events usually serve as fundraisers for local organizations.)

Scott's decision regarding fundraising is a contrast from other elected officials.

State legislators seeking federal office - and this includes both Democrats and Republicans during the last decade - have raised money for their campaigns during session.

This year that list included Senate President Mike Haridopolos, who is seeking to knock off incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson.

Haridopolos raised $2.6 million during the first three months of the year and an analysis done by the St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald Tallahassee bureau concluded that Haridopolos "received his biggest chunks of money from the special interests who wanted something out of the 60-day legislative session."

Haridopolos, it should be noted, said that he did not hold fundraisers once lawmakers began their session in early March. He also has continually noted that Nelson continues to raise money while Congress in session.

When asked about Scott's decision, a spokesman for the governor was quick to say that Scott's decision is not a "judgement" on anyone else.

"While the governor thinks it was appropriate for him he makes no judgement on the strategic circumstances other elected officials face,'' said Brian Hughes.