The Fine Print

Romney's Florida math

GOP presidential hopeful Mitt Romney touched down in Florida on Tuesday, making public appearances in both Tampa and Miami.

Romney got plenty of news coverage for his visit - and also picked up the endorsements of three well-known Cuban Americans who backed U.S. Sen. John McCain back in 2008.

The decision of his campaign to campaign in Central Florida and South Florida is likely a reflection of the math that led to Romney's defeat four years ago.

Romney lost the Florida primary to McCain by nearly 97,000 votes.

But the former Massachusetts governor's loss was not across the board.

Instead McCain and Romney found victory and defeat by how they fared in different parts of the state that each have their own unique sense of geopolitics.

Romney actually bested McCain in 17 counties. He had his strongest performances in Northeast Florida and in Southwest Florida. Romney won Duval County by more than 13,000 votes.

So why did Romney lose?

Because he lost to McCain in the Tampa Bay area and because he fared miserably in South Florida.

McCain took both Hillsborough and Pinellas counties by decent margins, but he really racked up a lead down south.

McCain did better than Romney in Broward County by more than 17,000 votes. McCain won Palm Beach County by more than 10,000 votes and had a 52,000 vote-plus edge over Romney in Miami-Dade.

In Miami-Dade Romney actually came in third trailing both McCain and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Of course a lot of the buzz four years ago was that the late endorsement by Gov. Charlie Crist may have given McCain the momentum he needed to push past Romney.

This is a new day and a new election and Romney's focus on the economy and jobs should resonate in a state with more than 900,000 people out of work. (The unemployment rate in Florida back during the 2008 primary was 4.6 percent.)

But one has to wonder what kind of impact that Romney's hard-line stance on immigration will have in South Florida even with the recent endorsements of well-known politicians such as Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Mario Diaz-Balart.

If former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich remains a contender, it will be interesting how Gingrich's more nuanced stance on immigration will play in Miami-Dade. Current voter stats show that 9.1 percent of all registered Republicans in Florida live in Miami-Dade.

There is a school of thought that one reason that Bill McCollum lost to Rick Scott in last year's GOP primary for governor is because McCollum suddenly took a hard-line stance on immigration in response to Scott's television ad barrage that made McCollum appear soft on the issue. The thinking is that this left Hispanic Republicans lukewarm when it came to both candidates. Scott was also able to accuse McCollum of being a flip-flopper.

What is indisputable is that Scott squeaked out a 36,000 vote victory in a primary that saw both Broward and Miami-Dade have low turnout margins compared to the rest of the state.

Broward turnout in the GOP primary for governor didn't even top 15 percent, while Miami-Dade turnout was 17.9 percent. McCollum won both counties, but not with the kinds of margins to help him offset his loss in places such as Scott's home county of Collier or in Duval County.

Is a presidential preference primary and a governor's primary the same thing? Absolutely not.

But it's hard not to wonder if some of the new advisers for Texas Gov. Rick Perry (including the team which helped engineer Scott's victory) have looked at the math and concluded that Romney remains vulnerable in Florida. (Especially if Perry is able to hold onto his money and use it for television ads during the home stretch before the Jan. 31 primary.)

Romney's path to the nomination will be a lot easier if he cruises to easy victories in states such as New Hampshire and Florida.

But if Romney loses again then Florida could be the precursor to a much longer and drawn-out nomination fight.

What if the unthinkable happens at Presidency 5?

(Sorry - for this blog being on hiatus for so long, but it's back for good.)

The three day gathering of Republicans known as Presidency 5 will come to fruition later today when the Republican Party of Florida announces the results of its much ballyhooed straw poll.

Gov. Rick Scott and others have touted the poll as a true indicator of who have the best shot to win the presidency. Scott has pointed out that in the past four polls the straw poll winner went on to win the GOP nomination and even the White House. Another argument is that Florida is a much more diverse state and that it is a microcosm of the state.

The conventional wisdom at this point is that Texas Gov. Rick Perry is the one to beat despite his performance in the Thursday night debate.

But there is also a considerable amount of buzz surrounding both Herman Cain and Ron Paul. Mitt Romney had made it clear that he's not actively competing in the straw poll despite the fact his name will be on the ballot.

The prospect of a Cain or Paul victory quietly has some Florida Republicans nervous.

The logic is this: What does it say about this high-profile national event if one of the frontrunners do not win. Will it take off some of the polish for the future?

Brian Hughes, spokesman for the Republican Party of Florida, brushed aside such talk.

"The party is excited for the delegates to have their opportunity to vote, we’re looking forward to seeing what the results are,'' Hughes said. "We anticipate to make national news with our selection."

It will probably be national news because there could be ramifications for Perry's campaign if he does not take the straw poll

It could be a lot of hand-wringing that doesn't amount to much, because theoretically, the next straw poll may come about for another eight years. And Florida will remain much in the spotlight due to the likely early Florida primary and the 2012 Republican National Convention.

But the reaction among top Florida Republicans later today could be interesting.