One month ago I posed the 5 biggest questions heading into the 2009 session.
Reaching the halfway point, here's where everything stands.
1. Do Republicans reject some or a large portion of the federal stimulus money? The answer is for the most part no. I predicted it would be hard for state lawmakers, especially those in the House, to reject stimulus money while also saying no to expanded gambling and tax hikes. That's turned out to be the case. But there are still some substantial issues unresolved, including whether or not Florida will change its unemployment compensation laws in order to draw an estimated $1.1 billion in additional aid for the state's jobless. A good deal of that money doesn't flow into the actual budget so it's not part of the ongoing tug-of-war.
2. Is it a tax, is it a fee, is it fair? This question has still been unanswered. There's a cigarette tax on the table, changes to corporate taxes, dozens of fees being considered. A House panel last week had to break for a half-hour because there weren't enough votes to get one fee bill passed out. This is one of the significant stumbling blocks in getting out on time.
3. Will cultural and social responsibility issues suddenly dominate the session? Apparently not. As I wrote here, the bill requiring an ultrasound prior to a first-trimester abortion is bogged down in the Senate. Sen. Andy Gardiner, R-Orlando, has conceded the bill may be dead for this session because he can't get moderate Republicans on the Senate Health Regulation Committee to support the measure. Other pieces of legislation on school prayer and drug testing of those seeking jobless benefits haven't gone anywhere. The only major bill moving is the measure that would increase premarital counseling.
4. Is there a way to come up with a gambling deal that makes everyone happy? So far, the answer is apparently not. But this issue is far from being resolved.There are all sorts of rumors floating around that both sides will eventually reach an accord. Right now of course we have a huge gap between a stripped down compact approved by a House committee and the expanded measure that is moving right now through the Senate.
5. What to do about the tangled property insurance mess? We still don't know the answer to this one. Lawmakers are working on proposals that would allow Citizens Property Insurance to raise rates and to scale back the size of the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund. But it's clear so far that some of the approaches are causing - as predicted - a geopolitical fault line based not on partisan affiliation but on where a lawmaker lives. Some state legislators have also proposed stripping most rate regulation for private carriers in an effort to woo back State Farm into the market. But the big question remains: Can lawmakers craft a package that is acceptable to Gov. Charlie Crist? If Crist does run for the U.S. Senate in 2010 as many predict then it would be unimaginable to foresee a scenario where he will approve a measure that could lead to large-scale rate hikes. Crist has suggested he is willing to allow some "reasonable" hikes for Citizens.
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