Don't be surprised if Crist-Rubio fight follows familiar playbook

In the next few days, Gov. Charlie Crist will likely announce the results of a successful round of fundraising since the governor entered the 2010 race for U.S. Senate. The estimate is that it should probably come in somewhere between $2.5 million and $3 million - a tidy bit of money considering Crist didn't declare his candidacy until May.

(Of course that amount will likely contain both contributions for the primary and the general election - which some will argue blunts the impact.)

Meanwhile, former House Speaker Marco Rubio has picked up endorsements from some well-known GOP figures such as former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. On Thursday, he picked up an endorsement from U.S. Rep. Jeff Miller. The recent straw poll results from Pasco County has hyped up expectations that Rubio's conservative stances will help him erode Crist's aura of invincibility. Rubio has done his best to frame the race as a battle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party: A principled conservative against a moderate who embraced President Barack Obama's billions in stimulus money for Florida.

And despite rampant speculation it highly unlikely Rubio would switch races at the last minute. Rubio himself knows that even former Gov. Jeb Bush - and Crist for that matter - lost the first time they ran a statewide election in Florida.

But the Rubio camp also has to know this: Crist is right now following the same playbook that he used during his run for governor. Crist's first priority was to build a huge warchest which eventually enabled him to get out on television way ahead of rival Tom Gallagher. Crist crushed Gallagher in the GOP primary despite Gallagher's best efforts to question whether or not Crist was conservative enough on issues such as abortion and immigration.

Just as important, hhowever, is that a key part of the 2006 playbook is that Crist also went after Gallagher on numerous fronts. Crist, for example, dramatically waved a copy of the ethics complaint against Gallagher during a televised debate. Backers of Crist helped dig up the damaging information that caused a major headache for Gallagher.

So far Crist has employed a bit of a Rose Garden strategy. He has been off raising money and remaining quiet about the ongoing Senate race (even refusing to discuss in any detail important issues now confronting the U.S. Senate).

That will change, however, especially if Rubio continues to assert himself.

Despite being an incumbent, Crist will go back to the same strategy he has used before.After dispatching Gallagher in the GOP primary, Crist went on to constantly bombard Jim Davis in the general election. Crist ran an ad mentioning a DUI against George Sheldon when he ran for Education Commissioner in 2000. Those working on Rubio's campaign have been warned by former Gallagher veterans to watch for the coming attack.

So despite Crist's always sunny personality, the race between Crist and Rubio will likely take a dark turn at some point. Rubio could be forced to defend himself on things likehis idea to raise sales taxes in exchange for lowering property taxes. And once that happens will Rubio return the favor by pounding Crist's record as governor? Or will both candidates go even further and attack things outside of the record?

Lastly, will any of this translate into an opening for Democrats?

It's way too early to tell on that final point but reporters and pundits watching this race in the next year will probably get the fight they want in the GOP primary.

Comments

[usa printing]

http://www.usaprintingtrade.com
http://www.usaprintingtrade.com/letterheads-p-50.html

[fortune telling]

nice post