While conservative bloggers gleefully dance to the news of Jim Greer's resignation as the chairman of the Republican Party of Florida, it's important to note that a lot could stlll happen between today and November.
As Adam Smith with the St. Petersburg Times has noted several times it is way too early to be writing the political obituary of Gov. Charlie Crist, especially since Crist is sitting on millions of dollars that he could use between now and the August GOP primary.
That said here's a breakdown of some surprises in the months to come and the potential fallout:
1. Former Gov.Jeb Bush could endorse former House Speaker Marco Rubio in the primary. This would be a big deal given the fact that the primary race will probably be decided by about 25 percent of all Republican voters in the state. While Bush's ties to Rubio are well known, what's not known is Bush's own political future. If he has permanently given up all thoughts of higher office, then maybe he would consider jumping into this race. But it could be just as likely that Bush's new role as an elder statesman of the party could compel him to stay on the sidelines until Republican voters have spoken. Bush has avoided for the most part saying much about Crist during the last three years. Plus Rubio is building momentum without his endorsement so there may be no need for it.
2. Rubio does knock off Crist in the primary. If this happens, this changes everything that has been written about this contest so far. Why? Because then Florida is in play for both parties. It doesn't take a genius to understand why national Republicans backed Crist in the U.S. Senate race. That meant they could direct financial resources elsewhere instead of being forced to defend a Republican Senate seat. Crist being on the ticket also meant initially that the Democratic Party would be less likely to spend millions to try to knock him out in a year when the party will be defending seats across the nation. A Rubio victory could compel the Democrats to target the Florida seat. Still if Crist poll numbers continue to drop the Democrats could still decide to challenge him even if he wins the primary.
3. Crist switches races, or changes his party affiliation. Ok, this is a stretch, but some Crist bashers keep envisioning this scenario. After raising millions for the U.S. Senate race since May, it is inconceivable to consider that Crist would suddenly jump back into the governor's race. This would set off a Republican Civil War of unbelievable proportions because it would be highly unlikely that Attorney General Bill McCollum would drop out of the race for governor. It is also just as unlikely that Crist would switch his party affiliation. All candidates for U.S. Senate have to qualify for the ballot in late April of this year, or about four months before the actual primary. Crist could not lose the race as a Republican and get placed on the ballot as an independent, or as it called under Florida law, no party affiliation.
4. Another candidate jumps into either primary. This is not based on any inside information, but on the prospect that changing dynamics of this race could prompt someone to conclude that the math has suddenly turned in their favor. Imagine a conservative candidate from say Northeast Florida who can bill themselves as a compromise candidate with appeal to both Crist and Rubio voters. Or imagine a Central Florida Democrat who has more allure than someone from South Florida. It used to be that jumping into a race in January of an election year was not out of the question, although it would still be a tough haul to raise enough money to be competitive.