Largely out of his own making, this could be a make or break day for Gov. Rick Scott.
Scott, after building up anticipation for weeks now, will finally unveil his ideas later today on how to balance the state's budget and rebuild the state's economy. And in an interesting and politically confrontational way the "outsider" governor has chosen to release his budget at a Tea Party event in Central Florida.
This is quite a turnabout from the days of Gov. Charlie Crist. That's because while Crist's budget recommendations generated about a day's worth of news it was quickly eclipsed by the actions of the Florida Legislature. In fact, some lawmakers resented what they considered Crist's optimistic outlook and proposals versus the bleak fiscal reality that has settled over the state since the recession pushed the state's economy into a tailspin.
This is why Crist's budget proposals, especially those in the later half of his time as governor, were somewhat ignored.
Now we have the bitter medicine likely to be recommended by Scott. Mammoth spending cuts of $5 billion as well as significant tax cuts that he says will respark the state's economy.
But unlike Crist the new governor has banked most of his entire legislative agenda for 2011 on the proposals that he says will be explained in his budget, whether it's his property tax cuts or his bid to reform the state pension plan. Scott last month even vowed that lawmakers would pass his budget.
On the one hand some lawmakers are amazed that Scott is willing to be the "bad guy" so to speak. In other words, he's come out with with the really tough proposals that could likely make the Legislature appear somewhat benevolent in return.
Scott, however, is trying for an interesting political gambit. Since he operated outside the traditional GOP infrastructure, he's turning to the Tea Party groups to help act as his constituency for his recommendations. In recent weeks, he has warned about the "special interest groups" that will complain loudly about his proposals.
This is in itself a tacit acknowledgement that the "interest group" that Scott has to battle could be the Republican-controlled Legislature. The unspoken truth here is that Scott doesn't owe his victory to them, nor do legislative leaders owe any true support to him.
There are other things, however, that could undercut Scott's budget proposal. First, it slipped out on Friday that Scott intends to propose a "two-year" budget. The argument highlighted in an Associated Press story was that Scott wanted to take a longer view on the state's fiscal conditions.
But the problem is the Legislature is required to pass a budget every year.
Additionally, if Scott is pushing money, expenses, cuts off into a second year in order to create an overall balanced budget than his proposals are going to get short-circuited very quickly. Lawmakers have spent the last four years complaining about "gimmicks" that came from Crist. If Scott does something similiar, he could risk losing his credibility with the Legislature.
Other things to watch for today: How Scott treats so-called "trust" funds and the use of non-recurring money.
Donna Arduin, the former budget chief for Gov. Jeb Bush and one of Scott's advisors, helped draw up the new budget. Arudin, while working with Bush, basically disagreed with some of the central tenets that lawmakers relied on when building a budget. Arduin would make the argument that taxpayer money is taxpayer money and it doesn't matter if it came from the state's sales tax or came from a highly specialized fee that an industry paid.
This goes against a deeply ingrained mindset - as evidenced recently by Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam comments on the Department of Citrus - that some taxes aren't "state tax dollars." Arduin's rejoinder was that money is money and if came out of someone's pocket and was sent to state government than the state has the discretion to spend wherever it's needed. But groups such as homebuilders, Realtors and road builders, view it in a much different light. They will argue that some of these trust funds help these industries create jobs.
Another thing that Arduin disagreed with lawmakers on: The use of non-recurring money versus recurring money. This is a bit of an arcane idea, but legislators compare it to using your savings account to pay the mortgage. Your mortgage is due every month so you should pay with a steady stream of income instead of utilizing a one-time source of cash. Arduin felt otherwise during her stint with Bush and the governor would recommend budgets that would rely on non-recurring, so-called one-time sources of cash, to pay for operating expenses. It was largely due to Arduin's influence that the Legislature placed a constitutional amendment on the ballot in 2006 that requires a three-fifths vote to approve a budget that uses more than 3 percent of non-recurring revenue for recurring purposes.
Of course, it's the budget cuts that will likely create a great amount of uproar and political consternation.
But if you put it all together this budget proposal could bring a quick end to Scott's honeymoon with the Legislature.
If lawmakers reject Scott's tax cuts, Scott's immigration proposal, and Scott's spending cuts, then it will be a long four years. Legislators do seem inclined to do some sort of pension reform - so that will be counted as a win regardless of the final design. Additionally, Scott appears to win approval of his bid bid to centralize economic development efforts.
Still if Scott gets about half of what he wants in his first year then how much will be get in his fourth year?
If elected, he said, he would "serve no one religion, no one group, no one cause and no one interest.
Posted by: Chanel Handbags | February 23, 2011 at 10:50 PM