The Fine Print

John Thrasher's secret lobbying dilemma

There's no question that the decision by powerful State Sen. John Thrasher to seek the presidency of Florida State University has created a bit of a controversy especially among some members of the faculty and students.

A lot of the debate has centered on Thrasher's political career where he has been a loyal Republican who has also been willing to cross swords with unions and public school teachers.

Thrasher has also had a dramatic role in the reshaping of higher education in Florida.

At a restaurant meeting in Orlando with then-Gov. Jeb Bush it was then-House Speaker Thrasher who drew up on a napkin the plan to dissolve the statewide Board of Regents and replace it with local boards of trustees at each state university. It was the regents who at the time had thwarted at least initially plans to bring a medical school to FSU. (The plan was carried out, only to have part of it rolled back by a constitutional amendment creating the current Board of Governors.)

The big argument that supporters of Thrasher - including local political heavyweights such as former Sen. Al Lawson - is that Thrasher's presidency will help FSU in its quest to attain additional financial support in the halls of the state Capitol.

There is an overriding belief that FSU's bid to push itself into the top ranks of American research universities cannot be achieved without an increase in state money. One FSU professor speaking last week to the the presidential search committee lauded FSU alumnus Thrasher as a "successful and passionate" advocate for the school who could help bring in the added money to bolster faculty salaries and build the school's infrastructure.

There's an argument that can be made that the fractious nature of the Legislature - combined with a chief executive now in power who has made it clear that he wants universities to spend less not more - means that even someone with tremendous political capital could have difficulty achieving some sort of major windfall from the state.

But there's a more simple dilemma to deal with: John Thrasher can't really lobby the Legislature.

At least not for the next two years.

Florida's ethics laws, as they have been interpreted by the state's Ethics Commission, make it clear that Thrasher can only have a limited engagement with state legislators.

The commission has dealt with the issue several times, but most recently in 2009 with the hiring of former State Rep. Joe Pickens as a college president.

The commission has taken the position that Florida's Constitution does not allow a former legislator to lobby the Legislature even if it is viewed in the capacity of a public service position. The argument is that the prohibition applies to a higher education position because the goal of the two-year ban is to make sure that legislators do not take actions designed to help them attain the future job. (Just this past session as Thrasher was considering whether to apply for the job he pushed to split up FSU's joint engineering college with Florida A&M University.)

From that opinion:

While we have no doubt that the former member here, like the members at issue in CEO 00-7 and CEO 00-18, is merely furthering a career of service to the public, it is clear to us that neither "opportunities for personal profit through lobbying after leaving the Legislature" nor the potential for influence peddling or the appearance thereof, are exclusive to situations where the employment held after legislative service involves lobbying for private entities.

In the context of conflicts of interests we have often said that the prohibition does not hinge on the personal integrity of the individual, but is rather is prophylactic in nature. CEO 81-76, CEO 97-15. The same is true here; the prohibitions of Article II, Section 8(e) and Section 112.313(9) are clearly and directly stated, and are designed as preventive measures. As we said in CEO 81-57, "the provision seeks to preserve the integrity of the legislative process by ensuring that decisions of members of the Legislature will not be made out of regard for possible employment as lobbyists.

Since legislative decisions affect those in the public sector as well as those in the private sector, it would seem to be equally important that legislative decisions not be colored by regard for future lobbying opportunities in behalf of public entities." For these reasons we recede from our opinions in CEO 00-7 and CEO 00-18, and return to our position, stated in CEO 81-57 and CEO 90-4, that former members are prohibited from representing, for compensation, another person or entity, be it public or private, before the Legislature for a period of two years following their leaving office."

To be clear - this doesn't mean that a university president can't talk to the Legislature.

A legislative committee chairman could indeed "invite" Thrasher to appear before them to discuss issues, including funding issues. But it does mean that there are limits on Thrasher's ability to independently seek out and ask legislators for help during the frenzied 60-day period when legislators work late into the night hammering out a state budget.

Now in case you are wondering.

Thrasher, who between stints as a House and Senate member worked at a prominent lobbying firm in town, is aware of the commission decision. As is FSU'S general counsel. As is FSU Board of Trustees chairman Allan Bense.

It's just something that so far has not received a lot of public discussion so far.

When asked about it last week, Thrasher insisted it would not be an issue, especially since he is not the main lobbyist for the university.

"I don't think it's a real problem for us given the staff we have, given the few times presidents actually go over to the Capitol,'' Thrasher said. "They are going to know what we want. Trust me."

But what's also interesting is that it was Thrasher himself who wanted to go even further than what is in existing law. Two years ago it was Thrasher who sponsored a bill (SB 1560) that would have barred him from even seeking the presidency in the first place. The ethics bill stated that legislators could not work for state universities or colleges while in the Legislature or go to work for them for up to two years following their departure. The bill wound up dying in a Senate committee.

Thrasher is a "non traditional" candidate. Even the search consultant assisting FSU acknowledged that Thrasher would not be considered for a top post like this outside of the state of Florida. It's Thrasher's connections and clout in Tallahassee that make him a candidate worth considering, the consultant said.

The question, however, is whether the presidential search committee and FSU's board has a full discussion on what the 70-year-old Thrasher can achieve during the first two years that the lobbying ban is in effect.

The Rick Scott machine grinds on with a growing sense of confidence

Is it all over but the shoutin'?

There are moments that it certainly looks that way - at least when observing what the Republican Party of Florida and the re-election campaign of Gov. Rick Scott are saying and doing lately.

While some polls have the race essentially tied with two months to go, the signals from the Scott campaign and their "out of state mercenaries" is that they have turned the tide and they are proceeding down the checklist of things they have to come up with to win the race over Democratic rival Charlie Crist.

The two-week bus tour launched last week was a great example of that.

The bus tour, where Scott is touting a $1 billion tax cut package over the next years, appears aimed squarely at trying to rally the Republican base of voters. Scott's new talking points for the events include linking Crist to President Barack Obama time and time and time again.

Crist and Obama are alike says Scott because they think "money grows on trees."

Now normally one would assume the need to nail down the base in the early going of a re-election campaign.

But the Scott campaign has spent the last few months spending tens of millions grinding down Crist in a series of negative ads. If the belief is that the negative ads have made Crist increasingly unacceptable to independent voters, then the idea of turning back to the base makes sense.

The recent poll done by the University of Florida in concert with a handful of media organizations would seem to bear that out. It maintained that among those Floridians surveyed that just 37 percent now trust Crist.

It's already been well documented that the Democratic turnout was not very impressive during the Aug. 26th primary. During a session held at the Florida Association of Professional Lobbyists conference last week, the executive director of the Florida Democratic Party acknowledged that the low turnout numbers in Broward were especially worrisome.

So if independents stay home, Democrats remain lukewarm, then the path to victory is with the Republican base of voters.

Of course the Scott campaign has been calling and trying to motivate voters for some time now. But the bus tour gave them an opportunity to reinforce that with visits to GOP strongholds such as southwest Florida. While some in the base may have their problems with Scott because of Common Core and All Aboard Florida, they are trying to calm those fears.

There are other things that also bolster the idea of a growing confidence in Scott world.

Their press strategy, for one, has been on a need to know basis.

As in, the Scott campaign will cooperate with the press on things that enhance its narrative. Want a key example? After putting out press release after press release about their ads, they have been less forthcoming about other ads.

One hard-hitting ad entitled "Swindled" start running right after the primary ended and features a person who says he was swindled by Scott Rothstein, the Ponzi schemer and one time associate of Crist. Christopher Heath with WFTV asked questions about the ad but got no answers.

The Scott campaign in 2010 avoided editorial boards completely. This time around they have employed a selective strategy. While they have spent time at places like Florida Today and the Tampa Tribune, they have not scheduled any time with some of the major papers who might be viewed as more adversarial i.e. The Tampa Bay Times. In other words, it would appear they plan to make visits to the places where they view an endorsement as a possibility.

Another key element that could help build confidence: While the Crist-Scott race initially drew a lot of national attention it doesn't appear that the race has become as nationalized - and the scores of earned media that would accompany it - as one thought it could become.

So far, it appears that many parts of the national media are spending time watching the handful of U.S. Senate races that could tip the balance to the GOP.

Juston Johnson, the executive director of the Republican Party of Florida, who also appeared at the FAPL event made it clear that the Scott campaign is looking at the finish line confidently. (Johnson repeated the 'out of state mercenaries' line that has become a motivational spark for the Scott team.)

Johnson told the group that it was "remarkable" that Scott has gone from trailing Crist to matching, or in the case of the UF poll, leading him. But beyond that, Johnson said he doubted that any debates between Scott and Crist would change the outcome of the election pointing out some would occur after people had already begun. Nor did he expect "some scandalous story come out that will drastically change this race."

Johnson talked about how the party and campaign had spent a year putting together its field operations and digital efforts and now it was a matter of just getting them to "do their thing."

It's easy to understand Johnson's point of view that voters in Florida know an awful lot already about both Scott and Crist and there may not much more than change the narrative of the race.

For their part Crist's team is also putting in place their strategy.

The Democrats and Crist held back on spending a lot of money in advance of the primary. A peek inside the Crist headquarters in St. Petersburg shows an organization that is setting up its own field operations, relying on some of the same strategies and analytics that aided Obama's successful runs in Florida the last two presidential cycles.

Scott Arceneaux, the executive director of the Democrats who like other Democratic operatives is spending quite a bit of time in central Florida with the Crist team, bluntly predicted that the race between Crist and Scott would be only one or two points and that the race wouldn't be decided until Wednesday.

The Scott campaign early on decided that Crist was the one opponent that they wanted in this election. They have been up on television all summer. They are clearly sticking to their game plan so far. They have had some gaffes and bumps so far but the large cash advantage has apparently enabled them to withstand those blows.

The last big onslaught from Crist and company is coming. The question is whether it will be too little too late, or whether it will derail the Scott machine's march onward.