Late last week, music started blaring over the sound system at the Florida House of Representatives:
"Everything is awesome, everything is cool when you're part of a team. Everything is awesome, when you're living out a dream."
Since the song was likely chosen by Kathy Mears, the chief of staff for House Speaker Steve Crisafulli you can be fairly confident that it was chosen for the rich irony the lyrics say about the current budget stalemate that has thrown the Florida Legislature into a bit of chaos (and which will likely result in a special session.)
The origins of the standoff - over health care funding, hospital dollars and the connection to Medicaid expansion linked to Obamacare - can at times seem bewildering and confusing.
Here's what not confusing:
Despite the promises of pleasantries, the divide between the two chambers is real.
And a copy of Crisafulli's script from his closed door meeting last week with House GOP legislators bears that out.
Crisafulli makes it clear that the House did not have a lot of warning that Medicaid expansion would be in this year's legislative mix. Senate President Andy Gardiner opened the door to expansion during a speech he gave on opening day.
"I worked with President Gardiner all summer to develop a work pan and talk about how we would handle session issues,'' states the script. "Expanding Medicaid was never part of the agenda. In fact, he stated that he knew where the House was, and did not plan to push the issue in the Senate. Obviously, things have changed and rather than getting caught up in the why, or the how, we are where are today."
The script also includes the House perception that a number of GOP senators oppose expansion. (Although one can argue, they have already voted for expansion since it's in the budget and was included in a budget bill that passed the Senate by a 35-1 vote.)
It's worth noting that House Democrats contend that there are plenty of GOP House members who would vote yes on expansion.
As recounted last week _ and as shown in the script _ Crisafulli urged his members to "stand like a rock." And when it comes to expansion, the House has done that.
The House made one last-ditch effort on Friday to salvage a budget deal before the May 1 deadline. They offered to put a total of $600 million of state money into health care to help keep hospitals whole in the event that the federal government does not extend the hospital funding known as low income pool beyond this summer's deadline.
For House leaders this was an attempt to call the Senate out: Is this about the loss of hospital dollars, or is this is about Medicaid expansion? In other words, you can expect House Republicans to start saying - we are willing to take care of any perceived crisis, but the Senate doesn't want to go along.
Past legislative battles - and sessions - have almost always featured the prospect of one chamber aligning themselves with the governor - to force the other chamber to bend.
Look no further than last year when then-House Speaker Will Weatherford was willing to halt all work on the budget unless then-Senate President Don Gaetz allowed a vote on the bill that would offer in-state tuition to the children of undocumented immigrants. By that point Gov. Rick Scott also wanted the legislation, which would help him with Hispanic outreach during his upcoming re-election.
The triangulation has occurred again this year.
But one big difference is that last year's battle was waged behind the scenes and wasn't widely known initially. This blow-up has been a lot more public.
Scott and the House are aligned now on expansion after Scott reversed his reversal on expansion. (Pick your rationale here - Scott never really liked expansion anyway, he's running for U.S. Senate etc. etc.)
In theory, that should have helped resolve the standoff, although former Gov. Jeb Bush told Scott when he first came into office that you have to be careful because you can wind up "enabling" the conflict.
As first reported by The Miami Herald, Scott targeted several senators in an effort to get them to resist the plans of Gardiner and Senate leadership. Some senators - such as Sen. Thad Altman - called the meeting cordial. Other senators such as Sen. Denise Grimsley turned down the invitation to talk to Scott.
But if the idea was to peel off reluctant senators it may have had the opposite effect and helped cement - for now - the Senate.
Where does this leave Florida and the Legislature?
Let's recall that Gardiner has been in the process a long time. He was there back in 2007 when House Speaker Marco Rubio was forced by the Senate to retreat on an ambitious proposal to expand insurance coverage to children with developmental disabilities.
Rubio told his House members at the time:
"This is not a tax cut,'' he said. "This is about real children and real parents and real families who are struggling every day to make ends meet...I am saddened that we will not have legislation before us that will address your concerns."
In that same speech Rubio predicted that Gardiner would be elected to the Senate and he would "rise to leadership."
So Gardiner knows full well that it may require brinkmanship - the June 30 deadline and potential shutdown of state government - to get the House and governor to change their minds.
But as evidenced by House budget chief Richard Corcoran's angry tweets over the weekend there's little movement.
Given that dynamic, one can anticipate that the session will end on Friday - with no extension (and all non-budget related bills dying.)
The posturing will then give way to who will call the special session - Scott or legislative leaders.
A Scott called special session could result in the Senate returning and then quickly ending without any action.
The big question then is how long will the Senate hold out?
Will they go long enough to even contemplate passing just a status quo budget in late June to avoid a shutdown - but with the prospect of stretching this out to the last quarter of the year (in hopes to hear an answer from federal authorities - and allow the pressure to build as the threat of cuts to hospitals becomes more likely?)
Or is the strategy to at least hold off a final resolution until the U.S. Supreme Court deals with the challenge to the federally-run health exchange? That decision could be rendered in June. The Senate plan contemplates creating a state-run exchange that could help absorb the 1.6 million Floridians if the Supreme Court strikes down the federally-run exchange. Senators will be able to argue they have a plan to deal with this scenario.
Yes any of that could happen. And a bonus question is would any of these scenarios result in collateral damage - both in the Scott administration for pursuing a strategy that didn't render a solution, or in the legislative ranks?
In the end, "everything is awesome."
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