The Fine Print

Dispatches from the Capitol: Latest House tsunami appears ready to wipe out a Charlie Crist legacy

After one-third of the 2017 legislative session one thing has become readily apparent: House Speaker Richard Corcoran wasn't joking when he talked about how little time he had to accomplish a lot of changes he wanted made.

Because the flow of sweeping new legislation doesn't appear to be stopping anytime soon in the House.

Theoretically most legislation to be considered during the 60-day session is supposed to be filed by opening day.

Ah, but there's a big workaround.

Under House rules committees can roll out at any time what are called "proposed committee bills." These aren't ordinary bills because they have to approved by the speaker ahead of time and they usually reflect top House priorities.

And the House has been using this vehicle to unleash a torrent.

Each day brings yet another major overhaul whether it's a big change to charter school laws, deregulating professions, eliminating Enterprise Florida, a cap on local government taxes etc. etc.

There's more coming on Wednesday, including an overhaul of the Florida Retirement System...and wait for it a big change to the state's election law.

The House is going to consider reinstating Florida's resign to run law for candidates who seek federal office.

The state changed the law in 2007 when Gov. Charlie Crist, then a Republican, was in office and there was buzz that he could wind up seeking higher office. In essence the change meant that Crist or any other elected official didn't have to resign from their current office if they planned to run for president, vice president, U.S. Senate or Congress.

The argument at the time - which was when Marco Rubio was House speaker (but after Corcoran had left as his chief-of-staff) was that Florida should do what it could to help its rising stars seek higher office without forcing them to give up their existing posts. This is a practice common in many other states.

It's worth noting that the state's resign-to-run law had previously tripped up many politicians, most notably then-Secretary of State Katherine Harris, who was forced to resign in the summer of her final year because she didn't properly tender her resignation when she qualified to run for Congress.

Now despite some speculation that Crist was on the shortlist to be vice president, he never got to use the law.

But plenty of other politicians - for example Sen. Lizbeth Benacquisto - have. Benacquisto didn't have to give up her state senate seat when she ran unsuccessfully for Congress in a special election to replace U.S. Rep. Trey Radel.

The House, however, wants to go back to future.

And their election bill doesn't just stop there - it has a few other changes sure to draw fire, including a proposal to force cities to have their elections at set times instead of whenever the city wants to schedule it. The bill would also not allow someone to run as a independent candidate (technically NPA - no party affiliation) if they are actually registered with a party.

Now some might view this bill as a possible shot at Gov. Rick Scott, who has said he is considering running for the U.S. Senate next year. There's no doubt that Scott and the House Republicans are locked in a feud.

But Scott is leaving office anyway due to term limits so this bill really wouldn't affect those plans.

The looming budget battle in Florida: A primer

Well, here we go.

After watching the prelude for weeks, the Florida Legislature and its Republican leaders will finally put pen to paper this week (so to speak) and release their detailed spending plans for the coming fiscal year.

After listening to leaders in the House and Senate discuss their priorities, the expectations are that the rival budgets could be widely divergent in what they cut, what they keep and what they enhance.

There are a multiple reasons for that, whether it's Senate President Joe Negron's push for increased money for state universities, or House Speaker Richard Corcoran's insistence that the state shutter its economic development agency Enterprise Florida.

But less noticed is that the House, Senate and Gov. Rick Scott have chosen to include information that supports their arguments, while seemingly sidestepping other salient points. This could influence the tenor of the debate that is about to intensify.

So it might be worthwhile and step back for just a second to recall how everybody got here and what's important to remember for the budget battle that still lies ahead.

So here's a few things to understand:

DON'T CALL IT A DEFICIT: There is no budget deficit this year. Plain and simple.

To understand the underlying budget situation, it's important to realize this. In Florida a deficit occurs when the state collects less money than what is needed to pay for things that are in the budget.

Florida's tax collections are in fact growing. The main budget account - known as the general revenue account - is expected to grow in the current fiscal year by 4.4 percent, or $1.23 billion.  This same account, which relies on a variety of tax sources but primarily the state's sales tax, is expected to grow $1.16 billion - or 3.9 percent - in the fiscal year that starts on July 1. That's a stark difference from the depths of The Great Recession when legislators were required to cut spending (or in 2009 raises taxes) to make the math work.

So then where does the confusion lie?

Well, let's start with a document called the Long-Range Financial Outlook. Thanks to current Sen. Tom Lee, the voters in 2006 approved a constitutional amendment that requires the development of an outlook that looks out over a three-year period and reviews both sides of the ledger - the expected spending and the revenue coming in.

The outlook comes out once a year. The one approved in September found that when balanced together legislators had a windfall of only $7.5 million for the 2017-18 fiscal year. And the economists and analysts who put it together warned of a "structural imbalance" that could create a sizable budget gap in the years to follow. That has sparked talk of deep budget cuts including a House plan to cut at least $1.4 billion alone in the coming year.

But it's important to remember this budget gap is a summary of both revenues - and expenses.

The long-range outlook put together assumes nearly 50 different expenditures - and that greatly impacts the bottom line.

Let's start with tax cuts: The overall outlook assumes that there will be $254 million in recurring tax cuts in each of the next three years. This is based on a historical average in recent years, but the point is this, part of the projected gap is based on the assumption that legislators will continue to cut taxes, which adds to the potential shortfall, which helps trigger the need for cuts elsewhere to close that gap.

The budget shortfall or gap that is projected to occur is also driven by a long line of other spending decisions where economists plugged in the numbers based on historical decisions made by legislators: The outlook assumes a $1 billion reserve on top of other existing budget reserves. It assumes that legislators will fully fund increased enrollment in public schools, pay for increases in Medicaid, and set aside more than $400 million over the next three years to pay for increased costs associated with the state employee health insurance program.

But there's more - the outlook assumes an increase of per-student funding above enrollment growth, grants to libraries and museums, local government park grants, and in the out years money spent on replacing a law-enforcement radio system and the replacement of Florida's accounting system.

So what does that mean? In reality, the budget debate is one about choices.

Do legislators choose to keep cutting taxes? Do they choose to keep spending money on certain things? Do they choose to make deep cuts due to a philosophical belief that government is too big and too expensive? Do they refuse to revisit past decisions that contribute to their structural imbalance - including for example - decisions to give out tax credits to various businesses. This could include anything from the insurance tax credit that is targeted by the Senate, or the tax credit scholarship program that continues to grow. (The amount of tax credits available for the scholarship program is projected to increase from $559 million this fiscal year to nearly $699 million next year.)

THE SCHOOL TAX DEBATE:  If there is one item that could derail the entire budget process it's the thorny annual dilemma over school property taxes.

Here's the problem: As property values rise, this translates into more money collected by local school districts that could be spent on public schools. In other words, if the value of your home goes up you will pay more in taxes in the coming year - unless the tax rate is lowered by an equal amount to offset the increase in values.

Legislators don't appropriate this local property tax money - BUT - they do draw up spending plans that assumes a mixture of both local and state funding. This is known as the Florida Education Finance Program or FEFP and districts that wish to draw down the state funding must collect a certain amount of money. (This is known as the required local effort or RLE.)

Republican leaders, including Scott, have used these increased local tax dollars to boost the overall amount spent on public schools. Some legislators have defended the practice by noting when property values plunged during the Great Recession that the state helped offset the loss (but not completely.) 

But Corcoran has vowed that he will not let this happen this year - and he's taken a much stronger stance on this than practically every other spending item in play.

Important piece of history: Corcoran was chief of staff for then-House Speaker Marco Rubio when the Legislature waged a lengthy debate over property taxes during a time when Florida's real-estate market was super heated. The position of the GOP-controlled Legislature at the time was pretty simple: If local governments take in more tax dollars because of rising values, then it's a tax increase. Legislators forced cities and counties to roll back their tax rates. So Corcoran is being consistent with that position. (Also worth noting: Several senators, then in the Florida House, also took that position. Dennis Baxley, Anitere Flores, Bill Galvano, Denise Grimsley and Perry Thurston voted in favor of the bill to force local tax rollbacks.)

Scott has maintained that this isn't a tax increase and his own budget recommendation relies on nearly $558 million in increased local school taxes to help pay for an overall 3 percent increase in per-student funding. Scott has tried to suggest this is no different than if the price of a car goes up and you pay higher taxes  because of the higher price. Yeah, but the government doesn't set the price of a car. In this instance government at both the state and local level have a hand in deciding how much property owners will spend.

BREAKING DOWN OTHER FLASHPOINTS...Quick hits on remaining things to look for and understand:

GAMBLING: Right now all these budget projections being thrown out do not assume any changes in Florida's gambling laws or a new compact with the Seminole Tribe. That means if - and it's a pretty big if - legislators could stroke a deal with the Seminoles and the rest of the players in the seemingly intractable gambling turf war it could provide an injection of cash that could help smooth things over.

GULF COAST SPILL MONEY: While this may not command a lot of attention around the state, the ongoing tug-of-war over money the state received as part of a settlement over the 2010 BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is part of the overall dynamic that will decide how this session ends up. The state last year got $400 million as its first installment. Under an existing law some $300 million is supposed to go to eight Panhandle counties that were impacted the most by the spill. But the Legislature has to yet to agree to send the money out the door.

Corcoran and House leaders didn't like the arrangement allowed under the existing law so they have crafted a bill that places more oversight on the spending - and prohibits any of the money being used on economic development projects. The Senate so far has a different approach and they have not agreed to all the House restrictions. This money is a big, big deal to the Panhandle Republicans and in Tallahassee parlance - this is their going home bill - meaning they can't go home unless they get it worked out.

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: This item has gotten plenty of press especially since it has triggered a feud between Scott - who wants to keep funding intact for the state's economic development agency - and House leaders who want to eliminate Enterprise Florida and scale back Visit Florida, the tourism marking agency. The Senate so far is siding with Scott. The question is will they remain in sync with the governor all the way to the finish line.

HIGHER EDUCATION: Negron's bid to increase funding to state universities as part of an effort to propel them into the top ranks of the nation's public colleges is going to be rebuffed by House leaders who contend that universities are misspending what they have now (some of which came with the help of legislators who placed projects into university spending lines.) The one word of caution in this debate is that numbers get thrown around sometimes without a clear sense of what they mean.

Universities are dependent on several streams of funding and it appears so far that the House is lumping everything in to make an argument about overall spending. There are differences between straight state funding and the money that universities take in from other sources - whether it's tuition, money from federal grants, or money medical schools earn from seeing patients. For example, the amount of tuition money can go up even if the rates don't because universities admit more students. T

The House has zeroed in on spending among the foundations and whether it's proper for the universities to use state funding to subsidize fundraising operations. So far, the universities have had a muted response and not given a clear explanation as to practice. One big question is whether or not the House will advocate for blocking universities from using their foundations to pay university employees above state limits.

TRUST FUNDS: It's important to remember that some taxes and fees charged by the state don't wind up in the main budget account. Instead they are set aside in what are known as trust funds. Year in and year out special interests groups argue that money collected in these funds belong to them. And year after year the Legislature politely ignores this and transfers money of these trust funds and uses to help balance the budget.

SPEND NOW, PAY LATER? Unlike the federal government, Florida is required to have a balanced budget every year. That doesn't mean of course the state doesn't have debt. It does.

Until Scott came into office, past governors and legislators authorized borrowing for fixed capital costs such as building college buildings, roads and acquiring environmentally-sensitive lands. Scott started drawing a firm line about this and led the charge to push down the state's debt load. As of last June, it was $24.1 billion or more than $4 billion lower than it was when Scott came into office.

Negron's plan to build a reservoir south of Lake Okeechobee calls for increased borrowing. Currently the bill moving authorizes more than $3 billion in bonding authority to go to various projects, but with an estimated $1.2 billion going to the reservoir project. But that's not what is needed right away in this year's budget.

If the plan is approved it would carry an estimated $100 million price-tag to this year's budget since the bonds would be paid back over 20 years in installments.

So Negron's plan has an immediate cost to the treasury, but it's also important to understand that the full amount of his project will not included in this year's budget.

BOTTOM LINE: Under the current schedule legislators are operating under the House and Senate are expected to pass their budgets during the second week of April.

That week is already truncated because of religious holidays so it is highly unlikely that any negotiations or work can begin until April 17. That means legislators will have about 15 days to get everything worked out in order to get a budget finished on time. That's because Florida law requires the budget to be finished 72 hours before the final vote.

So that's a lot of ground to cover in a short amount of time. Besides the above-mentioned topics there's other issues at play, including pay raises, more money for charter schools etc.

The clock is ticking.

Dispatches from the Capitol: "If we are going to win this year, it's because of Sen. Jack Latvala."

It's no secret that Sen. Jack Latvala - the Pinellas County Republican who is now the Senate budget chief - has had up and down relationships with a lot of people in the political process, including the current governor.

But Latvala (shown here campaigning for Gov. Rick Scott in 2014) is now becoming more and more aligned with Scott in his ongoing feud with House Republicans over the fate of the state's tourism marketing program and the state's economic development agency.

Latvala has already sounded off that he does not agree with the House approach - which is to completely eliminate Enterprise Florida and place tight restrictions on Visit Florida. This ongoing disagreement threatens to prevent the GOP-controlled Legislature from passing a new state budget.

But it was still a tad surprising to see Scott - caught on camera last week - showering Latvala with effusive praise. (Assuming this was doing during Scott's visit to the Florida Restaurant and Lodging Association.)

"If we're going to win this year, it's because of Sen Jack Latvala,'' Scott said. "He's going to stand with us all the way through. And he’s going to take a lot of arrows for doing it. I’m going to tell you he’s got broad shoulders and he can do it."

Contrast that from just one day earlier where during an event held at a Tallahassee manufacturing plant Scott castigated Republican State. Rep. Halsey Beshears, a Monticello Republican, while praising two Tallahassee Democrats for voting against the House bills that target Enterprise Florida and Visit Florida. It's been part of a Scott strategy in recent weeks to call-out House Republican members by name in front of local television cameras.

Regardless of the philosophical debate underlying business incentives and aiding corporations and whether it helps create jobs - a debate that unites House Republicans with progressive Democrats - the real story playing out amid this feud is that Florida's Republican structure is deeply divided and there's no signs that's going to change anytime soon.

Other governors have had their differences with members of their own party - i.e. then-Gov. Jeb Bush in a fierce struggle with Senate Republicans over medical malpractice laws - but Bush wasn't running political ads that went after legislators responsible for helping him carry out his agenda. Nor was Bush refusing to raise money to help the Republican Party of Florida. (Note - Scott stopped raising money for the RPOF ahead of the 2016 elections - leaving that task primarily to House Republicans including House Speaker Richard Corcoran.)

But that's where we are now.

And this rift is already having reverberations as we head into the 2018 elections still seemingly so far away.

Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam - who has his own share of dust-ups with Scott - was by Scott's side this week as Scott held a public rally in the Capitol where he again criticized the House approach. Putnam is of course seen as a likely candidate for governor, but the speculation has been that Scott wants someone else to follow him into the governor's mansion. (As in someone with a business background...) Despite all that, Putnam was with Scott this week.

So now we have two potential candidates for governor - Latvala and Putnam - sticking up for the governor, while another potential candidate for governor - Corcoran - is not.

Of course one could say, what does it matter?

Scott will likely run for U.S. Senate and has been known to avoid getting involved in primaries. Yeah, but...Scott has a good relationship with President Donald Trump. Scott is also now in a leadership position with the Republican Governors Association, the entity responsible for helping Republicans across the nation. Scott polls well among GOP voters in the state and if he chose to get involved in a primary it could have an impact.

Corcoran in the end could decide not to run for governor, or he could mount a fierce campaign from the right where he goes after Putnam and others as being part of the corrupt process he says now controls Tallahassee.

But before all that happens - we will have to see who - in the words of Gov. Scott will "win" the debate over Enterprise Florida and Visit Florida.

That may say a lot about who has a winning political future.

Dispatches from the Capitol: Will Richard Corcoran dislike this message from Florida's past?

On Saturday a reminder of Florida's terrible past and evolution will finally open its doors to the public.

After spending nearly $6 million on renovations, The Grove is scheduled to open on March 11 - or one day after the anniversary of the birth of Gov. LeRoy Collins.

The mansion holds a significant role in the state's history. Built with slave labor by territorial Gov. Richard Keith Call,  it would eventually become home to Collins, who tried to shepherd the state through the civil rights era by taking a more moderate stance than other Southern governors. Collins married Mary Call Darby Collins, the great-granddaughter of Call.

The exhibits catalog the changes in the state and those who lived there - featuring for example - an audio description of Call's denunciation of Florida's secession from the Union where he told a group of secessionists that they had "opened the gates of hell."

The museum includes exhibits that detail how Collins initially came into office defending segregation but then came to view it as morally wrong. And it features illuminating information on other members of the Call family who lived in the mansion during the Civil War and throughout the decades before Collins and his wife moved into it.

But up on the 2nd floor of the mansion is an exhibit that actually touches on some of the main legislative battles that are raging a mile or so southward of The Grove in the halls of the state Capitol.

Museum caretakers have placed a short film that talks about Collins legacy in attempting to "modernize" his home state.

What does it touch on? Higher education, promotion of tourism, and efforts to attract businesses to the Sunshine State.

Collins is lauded as someone who pushed for the creation of junior colleges and the creation of the University of South Florida because he felt it was important to have higher education institutions closer to where people lived. (The Senate this week passed a bill designed to boost the state's higher education system into the ranks of the nation's elite.)

The film also points out that Collins worked constantly to try to lure businesses from outside the state to come to Florida. It quotes Howard Hughes, the industrialist (and pilot and film director...) as calling Collins "the greatest salesman" that Florida ever had. (The House is scheduled on Friday to approve a bill that would shutter the state's economic development agency Enterprise Florida.)

And then there's the part of the film that appears to have bearing on one of the key talking points being made by House Speaker Richard Corcoran and House supporters about Visit Florida, the state's tourism marketing corporation.

They have noted that Visit Florida was officially created back in the '90s and have argued that people visited Florida before then without the need of any state resources promoting tourism. The House is considering a bill to overhaul Visit Florida and appear on track to cut a large chunk of its funding.

But the exhibit at The Grove seems to contradict that.

"He foresaw the need for greater state funding to promote tourism and helped lay the groundwork" for the organization that eventually become Visit Florida,'' states the exhibit.

State officials from the Department of State - who work for Gov. Rick Scott - say this is a bit of coincidence, noting that work on The Grove exhibits predate the incendiary debate over Visit Florida and Enterprise Florida by probably a year or more. Scott is fiercely opposed to the House efforts and has criticized House members for considering "job-killing legislation." Public records appear to back that up as emails and discussions about the script go back to early 2016.

For what it's worth, Scott does not plan to attend the grand opening of The Grove, so it may be a while before he sees the exhibit himself. At last word, it didn't sound as if any House leaders, including the speaker, planned to be there either.

The 5 biggest questions of the 2017 session

The 2017 session kicked off on Tuesday amid the usual pomp and circumstance and rows of desks overflowing with flowers, but this time around - there is a sense of apprehension about whether or not the schism between Republicans Gov. Rick Scott and House Speaker Richard Corcoran as well as the building tension between the House and Senate will result in a dysfunctional session that spirals out of control.

So realizing that any predictions this session is a risky business, here in no particular order are the 5 biggest questions of the session:

1. How hard will be it to pass a new state budget? The one job for Tallahassee legislators is of course the passage of a new spending plan. A lot of time and energy has already been spent on the fate of Visit Florida, the state's tourism marketing arm, and Enterprise Florida, the entity set up to recruit businesses to the state. The latest House plan calls for the elimination of Enterprise Florida and the imposition of stringent new rules on Visit Florida.

But in reality that's just a small part of the work that lies ahead.

Scott, the House and Senate are on a collision course. Scott says the state has plenty of money to do what he wants including a $618 million tax cut. Senate leaders say they can pass a budget that boosts spending on school financial aid and pays for Senate President Joe Negron's plan to acquire land south of Lake Okeechobee. The House meanwhile is planning to move ahead with a budget that includes a substantial boost in funding for low-income charter schools, while slashing other spending more than $1 billion and holding the line on local property taxes. (Scott uses this rise in local property taxes to help pay for a boost in school spending.)

The argument coming from the House - and reinforced in Corcoran's opening day speech - is that the state is spending too much (while at the same time contending that past years of tax cuts did not play a role) and that drastic action must be taken to make sure the budget will not be massively out of balance in the next two or three years.

There are some observers who contend that last week's agreement between Negron and Corcoran on a new budget rule regarding new projects is a good sign that shows Corcoran is capable of compromise.

But that new rule doesn't solve the math problem.

And this tug-of-war over spending could easily grind the session to a halt, or worse, force legislators into overtime.

It wouldn't be a surprise if the House goal is put together a budget that forces Scott to make difficult decisions - including the elimination of Enterprise Florida. Will the Senate keep its budding alliance with Scott and resist? Or will Scott be forced to actually consider vetoing the budget and in a moment sure to command plenty of press attention - order legislators back to Tallahassee to pass a budget that he says doesn't crash the economy?

Another pivotal budget item: The $300 million that the state received from the Deepwater Horizon settlement that is supposed to go to eight North Florida counties. The money was received last year but it still hasn't gone out the door. It's gotten a bit lost in the mix, but this item could prove crucial in the final mix. Negron, during his opening day press conferences, started out his remarks by warning that the Senate will not go along with a House proposal to place limits on how the money is spent. That bill initially placed firm legislative controls on the spending, but then it was amended. It's now parked in a committee that cancelled its meeting this week.

And without going into great detail - the longer the budget impasse is unresolved the more control actually shifts to Scott. He has several administrative tools in his hands that he can use to keep state government open - and control state spending - if legislators are actually unable to reach a final deal by July 1.

2. What does Richard Corcoran really want? Say this for Mr. Speaker - he has befuddled a lot of people.

Part of it is that Corcoran is a skilled political operative who knows all about leverage and negotiations. Corcoran's showdown with Scott over economic development and contracts as well as his crackdown on lobbyists has led to speculation about his true motives and true intentions and a looming bid for higher office.

A bid for governorship may be ultimately where he winds up.

But those who know him closely contend that Corcoran's wish list - which includes term limits for Supreme Court justices and appeals court judges as well as help for low-income charter schools - is not just window dressing.

And understand this: Corcoran not only has supporters in the House, but he also has quietly built up backing in the Senate as illustrated by his appointment this week of Sen. Tom Lee to the Florida Constitution Revision Commission. Lee has made it clear that he is a "free agent" during the upcoming session.

If you look closely it appears that Corcoran may have sway with a handful of Senate Republicans, which means he may have some leverage in the "deliberative Senate." And it also creates one side-item of speculation (consider it question 2A) - Will Negron have to rely on Democrats in order to get his agenda passed?

Corcoran also appears willing to try another legislative tactic and that's to put a lot of things into motion. He outlined many of his top priorities in his opening day remarks (or call to arms) but the House keeps pumping out new issues, whether it's an overhaul of the Public Service Commission, limits on local government taxes. There are promises to keep pressure on the judiciary and who knows there may be more lawsuits in play.

It makes harder, however, to keep a tally on what's really important to him. And maybe that's the goal.

3. Will the sugar industry win again? Negron's Lake O plan has already drawn a wide share of detractors - including from those in Florida's powerful sugar industry. As anyone who follows Florida politics knows, the state's sugar companies have strong political connections and wield a great deal of influence. Many leaders - including Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam - have already said they are opposed to Negron's plan as costly and unnecessary.

There is also a full-on public relations battle going on with public relations firms cranking out press releases that are then reinforced through coverage in various online outlets. Much of it may not reach into other parts of the state but it will increase pressure inside the beltway and inside the Capitol building.

The battle over the Lake O plan has already forced Negron to step down from the Gunster law firm because U.S. Sugar is a client of the firm.

But Corcoran said during a recent appearance at a Tallahassee private school that he was actually open to considering the plan, although he warned that legislators could get bogged down discussing the actual details of the proposal that calls for borrowing money in order to finance the acquisition. Corcoran's receptiveness to Negron's proposal caused a bit of a ripple through the Capitol.

Negron and Senate Republicans are already tinkering with the plan so that may be seen as a sign that it's still an uphill battle. Still it's safe to assume this issue will remain in play until the very end.

4. How relevant will Gov. Scott be in this year's session? Since he arrived in 2011 Scott has had an up-and-down relationship with his fellow Republicans in the Legislature. It's complicated his ability to get his agenda carried out. (Case in point -some may not remember he wanted nearly $2 billion in cuts to education his first year, a two-year budget and giant tax cuts.)

But there's no doubt this year is different as Corcoran and Scott have traded videos and barbs over the House's push to scuttle Enterprise Florida and trim back Visit Florida. Scott has vigorously defended the programs and has called out by name House members opposed to his agenda and launched robo-calls in their districts.

Among the items in the governor's favor is Scott's bond with President Donald Trump, which of course gives him a really important ally. (Will it count? Who knows, but it's worth noting.)

Scott has also taken time to try to strengthen his relationship with the Senate, as evidenced by his visit on Monday night to a private reception hosted by Sen. Jack Latvala, the Senate budget chief. And so far the Senate has been more supportive of the governor, although Scott's tax cut package may be a tough sell due to budget constraints.

The governor also gained a bit of additional leverage with the announcement that Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater was stepping down after session. Now Scott has an important appointment to make and there are some legislators who would like that plum assignment so they may be more receptive to aiding him.

Scott also of course has veto power over appropriations and bills which can convince recalcitrant legislators to play nice with him. But in the end will the desire of Senate and House Republicans to reach a deal - and knowing Scott's time in office is coming to an end soon - trump all of the governor's leverage points?

5. How many gun bills will pass? Much has already been written about the long line of gun rights bills up for consideration during this year's session. They of course include open carry, campus carry, and a rewrite of the state's "stand your ground" law.

Recent tragedies such as the Pulse Nightclub shooting and the killings at the Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport have added to a debate about "gun free zones" and whether or not people should be allowed to bring their guns into areas they are not allowed to now.

In the past few years, some of the more contentious gun bills have gotten bogged down and failed to pass. Polls have shown that many of the proposals aren't backed by a majority of Floridians. But gun rights supporters - including the National Rifle Association - have been unrelenting in their push to get these measures passed.

On the first day of session Sen. Anitere Flores, a Miami Republican, made it clear that she has trouble with some of the proposals - a move that means that several bills would not be able to move out of a key committee in the Senate.

But there's still a lot of time left in session so it may be a tad premature to declare everything dead for now. And the change proposed to the stand your ground law has strong support, including from Negron, so that appears to be on track to pass.