The Fine Print

What will Rick Scott version 5.0 look like?

This Friday another era comes to a close for Florida Gov. Rick Scott.

That's when Melissa Sellers will give way to Kim McDougal (both pictured left) as McDougal takes on the sometimes overwhelming job as chief of staff for Scott.

Sellers, who once worked for former Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, is remaining in Tallahassee and opening her own consulting firm.

This much is clear: McDougal and Sellers have different backgrounds, different resumes and different styles. McDougal is a veteran state employee who has spent most of her career focused on education and only recently made a deep dive into the political realm.

The big change for her came in 2014 when she went on leave from her job in the governor's office as an education analyst to help with Scott's re-election campaign. McDougal helped draw up Scott's education platform for his campaign but she was deeply involved with Scott's tightrope walk on how to deal with Common Core.

One of McDougal's jobs that summer was to meet with groups deeply opposed to Common Core, which still remain embedded in the standards that Florida is using in its public schools. McDougal's outreach was successful enough to win an endorsement from one of the groups on the eve of the election. (Which was probably important in a contest decided by just 64,000 votes out of 6 million cast.)

Because of her lengthy experience the expectation is that McDougal will retain her oversight of education matters for Scott. And that probably means no dramatic swings away from current policies or a need to make any big personnel changes. (Scott has been a pretty firm supporter of Education Commissioner Pam Stewart.)

Word is that after the departures of Sellers and General Counsel Tim Cerio other people working in the governor's office - including Deputy Chief of Staff (and former Louisiana resident) Frank Collins will remain in their same roles.

But the real big question for Capitol insiders - and ultimately Floridians - is whether or not Gov. Scott will pivot once again with a new chief of staff in place.

Because one of the most interesting aspects of Scott's five-plus years in office is that he has been willing to alter his style, his interactions and sometimes even his policies based on the input from those closest to him at the time.

There are those who speculate that Sellers will remain a trusted voice and may be doing a warm up routine for a potential 2018 U.S. Senate run for Scott. (Although there is a division of opinion about this as well.)

Another maxim, however, is that "no one gets out of Scott World alive." This means that once someone is removed from the orbit of influence it's impossible to get back in. (Key example: Sellers was Scott's campaign manager during a time when he was focused on the campaign. After the re-election, he installed her in as chief of staff in place of Adam Hollingsworth. Word is that Hollingsworth didn't know this was coming.)

Going all the way back to the start there are clear lines of demarcation for Scott when one person leaves and another steps in.

His first few months in 2011 Scott was combative with the press, with the Legislature and came on strong with a Tea Party influenced agenda that including killing high speed rail between Tampa and Orlando. Lobbyists were barred from meeting with Scott and top governor's office staff. The chief of staff at the time was officially Mike Prendergast, but the view is that the person who had the most influence at the time was his senior adviser Mary Anne Carter. Carter was a complete outsider to Tallahassee and once she left her position she didn't hang around in town.

But Prendergast (and Carter) were followed by Steve MacNamara, a long-time veteran of the Tallahassee scene who has been a university professor, a lobbyist and held stints as the chief of staff for two legislative leaders. It was MacNamara who tried to ease tensions with the press and tried to steer Scott into a more cooperative relationship with the Legislature. The blanket ban on lobbyists was lifted. Suddenly Scott was dressing more informally and holding lengthy sessions with the media in the governor's office. Scott visited newspaper editorial boards and scheduled work days to interact with normal Floridians.

MacNamara, however, departed in the summer of 2012 amid a series of articles detailing his role in contracts and his interactions with agencies. (Later it would be revealed in emails that MacNamara's influence with Scott was severely tested during the 2012 session of the Florida Legislature. Emails showed that MacNamara tried in vain to get the governor to veto a bill creating Florida Polytechnic University while encouraging him to approve a bill that would have given additional tuition raising power to University of Florida and Florida State University.)

He was followed by Hollingsworth, whose main job was to figure out how to rehabilitate Scott in such a way that he would have a shot at getting re-elected even though poll numbers suggested it was near impossible task. Hollingsworth was seen as someone who would quickly urge Scott to deal with potential problems and embarrassments heading into the 2014 elections. Former Lt. Gov. Jennifer Carroll has said it was Hollingsworth who showed up to tell her that the governor wanted to resign following her questioning by law-enforcement authorities investigating a veterans charity engaged in what was deemed to be illegal gambling. (The charity had hired Carroll before she ran with Scott but no charges were ever brought against her.)

Hollingsworth was at the helm during one of Scott's most notable moments during his first term: His complete 180-degree turn on Medicaid expansion and the Affordable Care Act pushed by President Barack Obama. Even today, it remains somewhat remarkable that Scott - who railed against Obamacare and even had run television ads attacking it - would come out publicly in favor of accepting billions in federal aid to expand who was eligible for Medicaid. (Under Sellers - and after his re-election - Scott would reverse course again and side with the Florida House in 2015 in opposition to Medicaid expansion.)

Other pivots, not as dramatic, also occurred such as Scott's decision to back in-state tuition rates for the children of illegal immigrants despite winning election in a 2010 platform that promised support for a crackdown on illegal immigration.

Starting under Hollingsworth (who brought on Sellers to serve as communications director) and continuing ever since she took over, Scott returned to limiting interactions with the press in Tallahassee. He cut down on appearances on conservative radio stations and instead shifted to appearances on national television outlets. And a combative side of Scott returned. He sued the federal government over Medicaid funding and he ordered an investigation of Planned Parenthood clinics last summer. Scott has ratcheted back up his criticisms of Obama. His push to get rid of the Florida Department of Law Enforcement Commissioner led to allegations, apologies and lawsuits.

Yet ever since his re-election and Sellers ascension to chief of staff Scott has had a difficult time with his fellow Republicans in the Legislature and has had trouble winning passage of his priorities. There's lots of finger-pointing as to who is to blame (is it staff? Is it Scott's decision to not raise money for the state party? Is it ideologues in the House?) but the net result is that his two top priorities this year, including a $250 million business incentive pool, were largely ignored by legislators. There are some who say that Scott is isolated from those in the GOP and that has contributed to the problem.

But this month Scott did make a tactical decision to limit his losses. Instead of drawing out the battle he signed this year's state budget and did not engage in the long line of budget vetoes that some lawmakers had been expecting. (Senate budget chairman Tom Lee predicted $500 million in vetoes at one point and Scott did roughly half that.) Talk of possible veto overrides has disappeared and the good thing for Scott is that legislators probably won't return to the Capitol until November.

The governor still has a tremendous amount of time left in his second term in office so there's plenty of time for him to repair relations if he wants to. By tapping McDougal he has found someone who has a good idea about how the capital works - but is less familiar with the political ramifications of every decision that the governor makes.

Scott of course will continue to place a large part of his focus on the state's economy and job creation since it's the message that has helped him in two elections (and remains a top concern for most Floridians.)

But will he take a more pragmatic approach on dealing with the Legislature, dealing with the press, and figuring out what to do in the myriad of issues that confront him on a daily basis? For example: One of the less touched on elements of Sellers time as chief of staff is that Scott brought in Julie Jones to run the Department of Corrections. While problems remains in the state's troubled prison agency, there are signs that Jones has tried to reform the department (although she too lost out this session on getting the Legislature to bless all of here proposed changes.)

So the question is will Scott change direction yet again with McDougal now on board?

Will the next two and a half years be relatively quiet and will the governor and McDougal have a caretaker attitude, or will there be new initiatives, new promises, and new conflicts with the two incoming legislative leaders? The next House speaker - Richard Corcoran - has a lengthy list of contentious items he wants to tackle that could prove challenging for Scott.

Will Scott - who never had been a politician until running for governor - present Floridians with another version of himself? Or will he stick to what he's given voters so far?

Who's bluffing now? State sues Seminole Tribe over blackjack tables

Sometimes it can be hard for journalists, political observers, and yes, even his Republican allies to understand how Gov. Rick Scott ticks.

Scott almost never lets his guard down - especially when dealing with the press. He can seem like a robot when he delivers the same message and talking points over and over again.

Scott is a former lawyer who dealt with mergers and acquisitions before he helped set up what would be the nation's largest hospital chain before its steep fall amid federal investigations into fraud.

Looking at his history in the private sector and even in the public arena now for nearly five years it's clear that Scott views himself as a dealmaker. (Which is why he may ultimately endorse Donald Trump for president, but that's for another day.)

And that's how you have to view what's going on with the protracted negotiations with the Seminole Tribe of Florida.

The Associated Press was the first to report that the state of Florida late Friday filed a federal lawsuit asking a judge to immediately shut down the blackjack tables operated at the tribe's casinos across the state.

The wording is stark and simple in the lawsuit. The part of the compact between the tribe and the state that covered blackjack tables expired this summer. The tribe had a 90 day grace period that ended Friday to remove the tables and they didn't. Therefore the state argues that the tribe is now operating in violation of state and federal law. They want a judge to place an injunction on the tribe.

 Here's a copy of the lawsuit: Download Complaint_10_30_2015

As one Florida gambling expert noted - now it's about to get real.

From a tactical move it makes sense for Florida to sue the tribe - especially since earlier in the week the Seminoles made their own preemptive strike by filing their own lawsuit that contends that the state violated the compact. A tribe spokesman made it clear the Seminoles would keep their blackjack tables at the Seminole Hard Rock in Tampa and Hollywood until their lawsuit got resolved.

Still it's a bit of swerve for the Scott administration and for a governor whose own political committee in 2013 got a $500,000 check from the tribe. When point blank asked about suing the tribe this past Tuesday Scott got a tad testy and promised only that he "do the right thing for our state."

Remember back in 2014 Scott was negotiating a new deal with the Seminoles that would have created a big splash. The overarching goal was simple: Get a better deal than his opponent Charlie Crist did. And the final numbers would have been bigger. A $2 billion pay day for the state and the tribe would have gotten craps, roulette and a new casino location in return.

But Scott didn't get that deal because an effort to push it through the Legislature imploded. Scott's team - which included then Chief of Staff Adam Hollingsworth - brought it to legislative leaders late in the 2014 session.

They floated the idea of holding a special session in May to ratify it. Initially the gambling lobbyists were caught flat-footed and didn't realize how close Scott and the tribe were to reaching a new compact. Those representing the Las Vegas casinos and the dog and horse tracks furiously rallied against it. Legislative leaders quickly realized they would have a hard time getting enough votes to pass it.

After that the deal was put on ice while Scott marched toward re-election and the deadline for the tribe loomed closer.

Legislators in charge of gambling issues began talking themselves with the tribe earlier this year - and then Scott reengaged. He personally reached out to legislators such as Sen. Rob Bradley and talked about working in concert to get a deal.

One key point to remember: Scott may be considered agnostic when it comes to gambling.

He didn't get elected or re-elected based on making promises to the anti-gambling crowd, the Vegas casino crowd or the pari-mutuels. At point he got backing from the Vegas casinos but as first reported by Florida Politics - the Las Vegas Sands and Sheldon Adelson have given up for now trying to get a casino in the Sunshine State.

For Scott the main problem is that the Legislature, however, is rife with competing gambling factions.

Those involved have said the issue isn't just getting a deal with the tribe - it's getting a deal that can win enough votes in the House or Senate. There's also the significant rift that has developed between Scott and GOP legislators - especially those in the Senate - in the last year.

Tribal leaders said there had been "significant progress" in recent talks but conceded earlier this week that they had to go to court to protect their interests.

So in other words they wanted to keep their leverage to say to the state we can maybe achieve our goals without having to give up too much.

Scott, however, decided to call their bluff. He brought in an outside law firm and put together a lawsuit that goes after the tribe. It shows that the state of Florida is serious too. Both sides now have something to lose. This isn't the first time that Scott has tried this brinkmanship (high speed rail, Medicaid funding) and sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.

But for Scott - the dealmaker - gets a chance to show off his skills again, and maybe, win a big jackpot and turn around his recent string of bad luck with the Florida Legislature.

What's in your wallet? GOP edition

(After a bit of a hiatus, Inside the Tally Bubble news is returning for 2015)

VICTORY BRINGS BIG CHECKS TO SCOTT CAMPAIGN AND PARTY STAFF

Campaign reports filed this week from the Republican Party of Florida show that Gov. Rick Scott's campaign manager Melissa Sellers and other top staffers with the RPOF got some hefty paychecks after a hard fought campaign season.

Campaign reports show that for most of the year Sellers was pulling in bi-weekly payments equivalent to just under $152,000 a year.

But on Nov. 18 - the day after it was announced Sellers would take over as chief of staff for Scott starting on Dec. 1 - the party stroked her a check for $17,500 which would equal about 6 weeks salary.

Back on the state payroll Sellers is earning $150,000 a year - or $1,000 less than her predecessor Adam Hollingsworth.

Sellers wasn't the only person who received a sizable check after the elections were over according to new RPOF filings.

Just some of the others include:

Frank Terraferma, director of House campaigns for the party who helped the GOP get a supermajority in the state House, got a check for more than $55,000 in the middle of November. Terraferma, who was among those who testified at the redistricting trial, appeared to be earning the equivalent of about $162,000 a year.

Tim Saler, deputy campaign manager for Scott, received a check for $16,250 on Nov. 18. or about the equivalent of six weeks pay based on what the campaign was paying him over the length of the campaign.

Matt Moon, communications director for the Scott campaign who departed Florida soon after Scott's victory, got the equivalent of 6 weeks pay on Nov. 18 when he received a check for $16,250.

Chris Finkbeiner, a deputy chief of staff for Scott who became policy director for the re-election campaign, also got a check for $16,250 on Nov.18. A week later it was announced he was going to work for well-known (and Scott friend) lobbyist Bill Rubin.

Pablo Diaz, the campaign manager for Attorney General Pam Bondi, received a $25,000 check on Dec. 31.

Others who got bonus checks include Jackie Schutz, now the governor's communications director, Joel Springer, head of Senate campaigns for the party, Ashley Ross, Senate finance director for the party and Kristin Seidel Lamb, House campaigns finance director.

J.D.'s ROLE IN CABINET INTRIGUE (A HISTORY LESSON)

This past week thrust the Florida Cabinet into the limelight amid the revelations that none of the 3 current members - Adam Putnam, Bondi and Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater - apparently knew ahead of time that Florida Department of Law Enforcement Commissioner Gerald Bailey was forced to resign by the Scott administration. One of the allegations is that Bailey was told he did not have support of Cabinet members but the three Cabinet members have said that just isn't true.

Immediately after that story came out there were rumblings that Insurance Commissioner Kevin McCarty was also under pressure to resign. When asked about it a spokeswoman for Scott said no announcements were forthcoming, but then said it was good to get "fresh ideas and new leadership." A spokeswoman for Atwater maintained there was "no deal" to get rid of McCarty.

But forcing out the insurance commissioner is a bit tricky thanks to former Sen. J.D. Alexander.

Alexander was in the Florida House at the time legislators were required to craft a way to deal with the new CFO position. (Voters approved a change in 1998 that collapsed the comptroller and treasurer posts on the Cabinet into one job.)

There was much concern that Tom Gallagher, who planned to run for the CFO post in 2002, would have too much power, including the ability to hire and fire the insurance commissioner.

So a compromise was born. The insurance commissioner would report to the governor and Cabinet, but furthermore it would take more than just a majority to hire or fire that person. It would require agreement between the CFO and the governor.

McCarty was hired for the post and approved by then-Gov. Jeb Bush and the Cabinet.

And he's been there ever since.

One key reason is that there hasn't been agreement among top officials on whether to force him out.

While she was in office as CFO Alex Sink made no secret of her displeasure in several instances with McCarty. But McCarty had a strong supporter with Gov. Charlie Crist.

When Scott came into office in 2011 word is he wanted a change. But it was newly-elected Atwater who backed McCarty.

Part of what's been lost in all this is that McCarty has been seen by those who follow the insurance industry as someone who has been good at carrying out the agenda of his bosses - whether it was Crist or Scott.

For his part Alexander, who got upset with McCarty over how the state dealt with State Farm and other insurance issues, later came to regret his role in how the insurance commissioner was picked.

He tried to change law to require the commissioner to be subject to a confirmation vote every 2 years, but the proposal did not pass.

"I am big enough to admit I was wrong,'' Alexander said in 2010.

 

 

Rick Scott's top challenges for his second term

Florida Gov. Rick Scott, considered one of the most vulnerable governors in the nation last year, will this week be sworn into a second term and take his place in state history as just the second GOP governor to earn re-election.

Scott's priorities _ which are likely to be reflected in his inauguration day speech _ won't be much of a surprise since he is expected to repeat what he's been saying for some time now.

Scott will stress jobs, the state's economic recovery, tax cuts, as well as other key parts of Scott's re-election platform such as keeping college tuition costs down.

But key questions remain, including whether or not Scott gets any kind of "honeymoon" after his narrow re-election. And additionally, how will Scott fare with the distractions, scandals and other problems that loom on the horizon?

Any of these could be a test for Scott and his campaign-hardened team led by Chief of Staff Melissa Sellers. After winning by roughly 64,000 votes how much political capital does Scott really have, and more importantly, how will he react if legislators, lobbyists and other in Tallahassee start worrying about the next set of campaigns instead of Scott?

it can be argued of course that as long as the state's economy continues to recover that Scott has met his primary challenge and the one that he ran on.

But there's plenty of challenges Scott will confront in the coming year that could cause him problems and harm his eventual legacy.

Here's just some of them:

WILL REPUBLICANS REMAIN TRUE TO HIM? One of the most immediate challenges is what type of control Scott will retain over the Republican Party of Florida. Scott, with input from people like Sellers and former chief of staff Adam Hollingsworth, helped put people in place at the RPOF whose primary job was focused on getting Scott re-elected.

But for a variety of reasons there are those who aren't entirely trustful. With possible presidential campaigns for either U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and former Gov. Jeb Bush gearing up, those loyal to Rubio and Bush harbor lingering doubts about the party. Look no further than the decision to give the keynote speech in the party fundraising dinner to Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal instead of trying to tap someone like Rubio.

The big test for Scott will come later this month when Leslie Dougher tries to win a new term as chairman of the state party. An early endorsement from Scott for Dougher did not dissuade Blaise Ingolia, a newly-elected state representative, from challenging her. Due to party rules Scott has a great deal sway over the executive committee, but a defeat of his hand-picked candidate would be a bit of a blow as he starts his second term.

ROLLING THE DICE AGAIN: Last year Scott tried to come up with a new compact with The Seminole Tribe of Florida that would allow the tribe to continue to enjoy parts of its ongoing gambling monopoly while giving a sizable boost to state revenues.

State legislative leaders made it clear that the deal would be dead-on-arrival due to the ongoing battle between other gambling interests, including those seeking to bring resort styled casinos to South Florida. Key portions of the existing deal with the tribe will expire this summer. Some legislative leaders, such as Senate President Andy Gardiner, have made it obvious that the end of this deal is not a major concern even if means the state would lose out on several hundred millions a year by allowing the existing deal to end.

Can Scott come up with a deal that keeps the tribe happy, keeps the money flowing into state coffers, yet can also get enough votes in the Florida Legislature?

PRISON DEATHS: Scott late last year agreed to give Julie Jones, the former head of the Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles, a $160,000 a year job (on top of her state pension) to come out of retirement and take over the Department of Corrections.

Jones is stepping into the post at a time when the agency is under fire for inmate deaths and allegations of cover-ups. Right now the Florida Department of Law Enforcement is investigating dozens of inmate deaths and even today a legislative panel is expected to delve into all of the problems at the state's prisons.

Scott, who initially wanted to slash prison spending when he was running in 2010, has tried to keep his distance from the ongoing problems. But the ongoing investigations and problems with some of the privatization efforts pushed under his watch may put the scandal at his doorstep.

LEGISLATURE GOING ITS OWN WAY: Republicans who control the Florida Legislature went out of their way in 2014 to ensure Scott had a successful session as he moved into his re-election campaign. But there's been the feeling that it was an uneasy detente. Scott had a rocky relationship with many legislators when he first came into office because he defeated the GOP establishment candidate Bill McCollum.

Now with nothing else to run for _ right now at least _ how cooperative will legislators be? Gardiner has maintained Scott retains a good deal of sway due to his veto power. And there are reports from legislators that Sellers herself has tried to go out of her way to reach out to them in a friendly manner.

Some of Scott's priorities such as boosting school funding should be an easy sell to lawmakers.

The recent news that the budget surplus increased could also make it easier for Scott to get legislators to going along with additional tax cuts. But $1 billion over the next two years? Permanent elimination of taxes on manufacturing? A property tax constitutional amendment? Some of these may prove to be a bit more challenging once legislators delve into the nitty gritty details.

Other flashpoints could flare up as well: Gardiner himself during a session with reporters said that if there was a push to approve a new deal with the Seminole Tribe that he wanted a full-blown look at the operations of the Department of Lottery. Is that a sign that Lottery Secretary Cynthia O'Connell could find herself in for a difficult confirmation process?

Will legislators also fault Scott for how his Department of Health has handled implementation of last year's medical marijuana law? Some Democrats are already suggesting that the department may be trying to stall implementation because there is an opposition to the law from within the administration.

Put it all together and it could mean that even this year Scott could have a bumpy session.

PUBLIC RECORDS BATTLE: Scott remains locked in a legal battle over how his administration handled public records that is just one of the reminders of how the former CEO turned politician has dealt with the state's open records law. The governor is being sued for allegedly violating the state's public records law.

Some may view the motives of Tallahassee attorney Steven Andrews as suspect. But Andrews has been successful in many of his endeavors, including winning his initial lawsuit over a land dispute with the state as well as his defense of one-time aide Carletha Cole in charges that she illegally taped another aide in the lieutenant governor's office.

Chief Judge Charles Francis will be confronted with deciding whether or not he believes that Scott's office violated the public records law and did not timely produce records records for Andrews. The practical implication of an adverse ruling would be limited since we are talking about a civil lawsuit, but it would still prove to be historic if a judge found fault with the governor.

SCHOOL DAYS: This coming year Florida is expected to transition away from the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test and replace it with a new test intended to measure how students fare on the new "Florida standards" that are largely modeled after Common Core.

Common Core remains a radioactive term with some conservatives. Scott has tried to assuage critics by asking Education Commissioner Pam Stewart to convene a group to look at the standards once again. Meanwhile Stewart is also being asked to "investigate" the use of testing in Florida schools.

The most immediate problem is ensuring that the new test is administered smoothly and that there aren't any problems in evaluating the work of students.

But the continued focus on Common Core means that it will continue to a potential distraction _ and political problem _ for Scott and state legislators.

The other dynamic, however, is Scott will find himself confronting Bush and his allies if the governor tries to dismantle any of the main elements of the Bush's education reforms that were put in while he was in office.

HIGHER EDUCATION: Scott could also create friction with business leaders and legislators over his ideas for higher education as well.

Scott has pushed vigorously to roll back tuition hikes - and take away the power to let universities raise their prices. In his inauguration speech, Scott will expand that focus to suggest there should be limits on graduate tuition hikes as well.

But Scott's austerity pitch will come at a time when some universities like the University of Central Florida and the University of South Florida are coming up with plans to expand their campuses.

While it's true tuition doesn't pay for new buildings, any expansion brings with it higher operating costs, which have to be paid from either tuition or state general revenue.

Schools such as Florida State University led by new president John Thrasher want more money to boost faculty salaries in an effort to move FSU into the ranks of the nation's leading public universities.

While legislators backed Scott's tuition plan during a campaign year, it may be harder for them to ignore the requests from university presidents _ and local leaders _ who want their schools to grow.

THE NEXT ELECTION: Scott has been fairly good at avoiding getting too involved in presidential politics _ or even other significant state and local races.

But he might find that difficult as both the 2016 presidential election and the 2018 state elections begin to heat up.

It's widely believed that Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam will seek the governor's office in 2018. Putnam and Scott don't have a close relationship, partly due to the fact that Scott has several times threatened to veto Putnam's top legislative priorities.

There are signs - like in last year's final Cabinet meeting - where Putnam has shown that he now has no problem challenging Scott. That could grow as 2018 moves closer and Putnam decides to show even more of his independence.

Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater may run for governor as well and may also be eager to distance himself from Scott.

Presidential politics could also prove to be a complicating factor.

When Scott ran for a second term, he relied more on Texas Gov. Rick Perry and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie than someone like Bush. (Bush probably spent as much time or more campaigning for Putnam's re-election as he did for Scott.)

If Christie jumped into the 2016 presidential race against Bush, would Scott be able to stay on the sidelines after all the work _ and money _ Christie delivered to him?

What would Scott do if the Legislature decided to change Florida's primary date in an effort to help Jeb? Would he go along, or veto the bill?

And if Rubio were to bypass re-election and run for president what would Scott himself do?

Scott considered running for U.S. Senate in 2010 but opted instead to run for governor. When asked recently about his future, Scott said he ran for governor and has no plans to run for anything else.

Would that change, however, if it were an open seat? Or would Scott back someone like Attorney General Pam Bondi _ who he does have a good relationship with _ over other Republicans who also might be interested in seeking to replace Rubio?

Who might be the real winner on Election Day? The Florida Legislature

Charlie Crist and Rick Scott will head into their second debate on Wednesday night, hoping to create some momentum in what appears to be an ever so tight race for governor.

What might get lost in the back-and-forth and barbs about fraud, Scott Rothstein, and HCA/Columbia is how each governor is prepared to deal with the political future and reality that will exist no matter which one of them wins.

And that reality is that the Republican-controlled Florida Legislature will have a lot to say on how the next four years go...for both candidates.

The fault lines will be obvious for Crist.

He has already said he's ready to issue an executive order to try to carry out Medicaid expansion if the Legislature remains recalcitrant to the idea as it has the last two years.

This is actually not a new tactic for Crist. He has done this before, on issues like voting, where he has dared the Legislature to sue him on issues he knows enjoy some level of popularity. In the past, state legislators were hesitant to do this (save then-House Speaker Marco Rubio's challenge to a gaming compact with the Seminole Tribe of Florida.)

But you can rest assured that on Medicaid expansion the legal challenge - at least from the House (where one of the chief expansion opponents is Speaker-in-waiting Richard Corcoran) - will come quickly.

Crist has already said several times that he thinks he can work with the Legislature because he will "have a pen." That threat, however, would be rendered useless if Republicans gain a veto-proof majority as some polls are suggesting. You can bet a Legislature chagrined by the prospect of a Crist governorship will not hesitate to challenge Crist at every opportunity.

A Crist governorship could be a bonanza for political and policy reporters who would get to witness an endless game of brinkmanship as it happened at times under Florida's last Democratic governor Lawton Chiles. Just think of the joys of a possible mid-summer session to craft a final budget deal in order to keep state government running. (And a wonderful side debate of who constitutes a "essential" or "non-essential" state employee.)

Except Crist might not be the only one who could be at odds with legislative leaders.

The plain fact is that when talked to privately many GOP legislators continue to have discomfort with Scott four years after he knocked off GOP establishment favorite BIll McCollum and contended on primary night that the Tallahassee insiders would be "crying in their cocktails." Scott has an uneasy alliance with many Republican heavy-weights in the state who have remained quiet as he brought in outsiders - many of them connected to Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal - to run the Republican Party of Florida.

Let's look at the facts of his four years in office. It really wasn't until this year - when he was down in the polls against Crist - that the Legislature pivoted from three years of a respectful, yet standoffish at times relationship, to giving way to help carry out Scott's top priorities.

There's an argument that part of this was due to Scott's realization after months without a lieutenant governor that maybe he needed someone like Carlos Lopez-Cantera, a former state legislator from Miami, to broker deals. But lawmakers, including House Speaker Will Weatherford, made a conscious decision to help Scott out on such issues as a tuition break for Dreamers, or eliminating the tuition law that was passed at the insistence of the Legislature (and signed into law by a reluctant Crist.)

Many of Scott's top priorities from his 2010 election - such as a massive cut in the state's corporate income tax - were politely rejected by the Legislature.

Want a more recent example? Just look at the decision by Scott to have Lopez-Cantera and Chief of Staff Adam Hollingsworth gauge support for a potential new deal with the Seminoles. As reported recently by The Associated Press, the goal of this deal was come up with one that outshined the one that Crist approved and get more money for the state. But the deal was a tough sell especially since it would require yes votes from Democrats in order to pass and was opposed by the state's pari-mutuels and those supporting Las Vegas-styled casinos. The entire effort quickly collapsed.

That's not to say there won't be a lot more common ground between Scott and members of his own party than between them and Crist.

But many of the Tallahassee insiders who Scott predicted would be crying now fully expect the Legislature to be the place where the real action - and real power - will lie during the next four years. That's more likely since Scott's power over legislators will wane as his second term goes on. Even as powerful as he was then-Gov. Jeb Bush got into a lot more rows with the Legislature after his re-election.

And how much currency with Scott bring with him if he barely defeats Crist in the same fashion where he barely defeated Alex Sink in 2010?

Scott's platform this time around has been a lot less bolder than it was in 2010. He has mostly crafted it around ideas like increasing spending on environment and education. Scott has promised to continue to grow the economy, but there's no 7-7-7 plan this time around with a sweeping promise to create 700,000 (or 1.7 million jobs) by cutting billions in taxes and spending.

What ultimately might be more important are the platforms of Corcoran, soon to be House Speaker Rep. Steve Crisafulli, Incoming Senate President Andy Gardiner, Sen. Bill Galvano (and the yet to be crowned Senate president for the 2017-18 time period.) Or it could even be the platforms of the NEXT potential Republican governor - Adam Putnam or Jeff Atwater.

Gotcha questions and media bias? The Rick Scott press strategy

Until Charlie Crist and gay marriage changed the narrative late last week, Gov. Rick Scott was getting a buzz saw of negative publicity about the way he handles questions from the press.

As in Scott never directly answers them.

Scott's non-answers over his use of on-duty police at a campaign event was seized on first by television stations in the critical Tampa Bay media market and was mocked nationally by Anderson Cooper on CNN.

By week's end Scott was also getting hit by stations in voter-rich South Florida.

Any chance this will prompt Scott to change his strategy with the press and media?

In a word: No.

Let's set aside the fact that many politicians, including former Gov. Crist, avoid answering questions directly (with the possible exception of former Gov. Jeb Bush as correctly noted by Aaron Deslatte with the Orlando Sentinel.)

Instead let's remember how we got here.

Back in 2010 when Scott the "outsider" and a tea party favorite was on the trail the main campaign fear was a non-stop barrage of questions about Scott's record with Columbia/HCA. So he avoided editorial boards, was careful about his interactions with the press, and talked about jobs, jobs, jobs.

When he took office, that didn't change initially.

The Scott team tried to stay on message and to carry out an ambitious agenda of cutting taxes, spending and regulations. That created a lot of conflict with the press because the Scott folks didn't want to answer questions about issues that didn't have to do with Scott's theme of the day. (Which works during a campaign, but not when you are governor because lots of things happen in a big state that are out of your control.)

Then after Scott changed his first chief of staff he tried to communicate in a much less restrained fashion.

The problem was that as a person who did not have a lot of political street smarts prior to getting elected Scott and his team quickly realized that a handful of misstatements, gaffes, whatever would start to burn out of control (Anthropology majors, disappearing dogs, interactions with the King of Spain etc. etc.)

So with a third chief of staff and a new communications director Scott began sticking to the script again (for the most part). Scott only answers questions when it benefits his tactics and strategy.

Flash forward now to a tense, tight re-election campaign.

Reporters (and voters) may think it's important that Scott give a direct answer on same sex marriage and the court battles, or whether he is for or against the minimum wage.

That's not how Scott World sees it at all.

Instead there are people involved in the campaign who see these questions as a potential distraction that don't follow their script and narrative.

In other words, a question about the minimum wage is apparently viewed as a "gotcha question."

If Scott articulates reasons why he's opposed to it, then Democratic rival Crist, who is for it, will use the response to go after Scott on it. This takes attention away from the narrative that Scott has done things to improve the economy and has grown jobs.

Likewise a question about same-sex marriage (which is important to some folks in the GOP base) could equally cause the campaign to go off-message.

And the more that the media harps on Scott's decision to sidestep these questions then this may lead into accusations that the media is biased against the incumbent governor.

This theme has already started to trickle out a little.

Last Friday after The Miami Herald posted a story about Crist, Scott and climate change the governor's re-election campaign blasted out a statement saying that the Herald "decided not to include the entire statement." The "entire statement" included Scott taking shots at Crist over items such as Everglades restoration and springs restoration.

Most people who work with the press know full well that an entire lengthy statement is not likely to make a story, but the Scott campaign took the Herald to task nonetheless.

The question is whether or not this will be a prelude to a bigger pushback from the Scott campaign (or some of its alllies) contending that the media isn't doing a good enough job at going after Crist for his lack of policy papers, or exploring the Jim Greer and Scott Rothstein sagas. (Of course it's worth noting that whenever the Republican Party or Scott campaign wants to blast Crist for being a "lousy governor" they cite a long line of articles and editorials written when he was in office.)

Reporters won't stop asking questions about important issues affecting the state. And with three-and-a-half months to go until Election Day it's unlikely Gov. Scott will stop reciting the talking points from his script.

Republican Party chairman calls incident with major donor "unfortunate"

As the swirl of punches - and counter-punches - have surrounded the re-election campaign of Gov. Rick Scott in the last 10 days there's one person who hasn't said much up to now.

That's Lenny Curry, the chairman of the Republican Party of Florida.

Curry says he got the emails from billionaire donor Mike Fernandez, who abruptly stepped down in March from his post as finance chairman amid disagreements with the Scott re-election team. Those emails - which have been detailed in Politico as well as The Miami Herald/Tampa Bay Times - dwell on everything from an alleged incident where staffers mimicked a Mexican accent to complaints about paranoia among top campaign staff and problems with Scott's chief of staff Adam Hollingsworth.

The response from Scott's team - including Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera - has been to deny the incident. One of Scott's political consultants in Politico called Fernandez a "renegade donor" who had sent a "bizarre email."

Fernandez himself was on Miami television this week, however, and WPLG quoted Fernandez as telling them that he believed the incident happened. When asked whether he left the campaign because of concerns about reaching out to Hispanic voters, you can see Fernandez pause and then say that he exceeded the goals of the campaign to raise $30 million without really answering the question.

Curry for his part has a slightly different take from some others in "Scott world" on the entire episode.

He spoke in glowing terms about Fernandez, saying he was an integral part in helping both the campaign and the Republican Party raise money this past quarter. (The party on Monday said it raised more than $10 million in the first quarter although this figure has not yet been verified.)

"He and I have shared the same goal and that's to re-elect Rick Scott," Curry said.

Curry called Fernandez's emails expressing concern about the campaign part of an "internal" discussion and dialogue.

"He was saying to the campaign where he thought we could be doing things differently," Curry said.

Curry said he remained "grateful" for the work Fernandez did and said "it's unfortunate he felt frustrated" about how the campaign was running.

As for the incident that Fernandez said showed cultural insensitivity, Curry said that if he had evidence that it took place those responsible would be fired.

"I don't see any evidence of Republican Party of Florida employees saying those kind of things," Curry said. "I won't tolerate that."

There are differing opinions about how important these entire events have been the last few days.

It's self-evident that the campaign and the party have tried hard to steer news away from this narrative. They have launched web ads and the party even this week disclosed its fundraising numbers 10 days early (when in the past it used to be the party discuss any of this until the actual filing deadline with the state.)

When asked about the decision to release the fundraising numbers early, Curry said it was a very successful quarter and then added "Mke had a lot to do with that."

And that's the real issue going forward. The news of Fernandez's departure will fade as the session ends and the campaign veers into hyperdrive. But will all of this affect fundraising going forward?

Scott has been described as one insider as a "machine" when it comes to raising money.

But one has to wonder as the dog days of summer are upon us - and the session is over - whether or not the money will continue to flow like it has been.  Maybe some Florida donors will decide that amid all this that they need evidence that Scott is convinced enough of re-election effort that he will reach into his own pocket again.

Scott has publicly stated he has no plans to spend his own money like he did in 2010 when he spent more than $70 million.

But if his goal - as he once said - is to raise $100 million to go after his opponent - then he and others still have work to do.

Texting Adam Hollingsworth (a peek behind the curtain)

Adam Hollingsworth, the chief of staff for Gov. Rick Scott and one of the most important people in Scott's inner circle, doesn't really use email for official business.

A random check of his official emails show that Hollingsworth routinely uses his Outlook account to schedule meetings and perform some of the management functions - such as signing on performance reviews - of his staff.

But texting?

On the very least it looks like at one point of time that some official business was done through texts.

But recent emails and messages would suggest that the Executive Office of the Governor has adopted an official policy to discourage the use of text messages.

Consider this Jan. 10 text from Hollingsworth: "EOG staff does not conduct public businss via test messaging. You may contact me at 850-488-5603 or [email protected]."

An Feb. 10 an email from Dawn Hanson, director of administration for EOG, that was eventually forwarded to newly-installed budget director Cynthia Kelly states: "The COS has a no texting policy for the EOG. This practice has been in place for quite awhile and we are in the process of actually turning off the texting features on state phones."

When asked this past week, however, Frank Collins, a spokesman for Scott, said no such policy was in place.

Now all of this comes amid an ongoing public records lawsuit against Scott and other top state officials. The lawsuit filed by Tallahassee attorney Steven Andrews - a persistent critic of Scott - contends that that state officials are flouting the state's public records law. One example is that it took Andrews more than a year to get three months worth of text messages from a former top aide to Scott.

But Scott's Office of Open Government has turned over text messages made by Hollingsworth over the last several months that show that lobbyists and other elected officials would occasionally reach out to Scott's right-hand man via text message.

These texts touch on issues such as Scott's search for a lieutenant governor, appointments and legislative issues that have become debated during the 2014 session.

Rep. Frank Artiles, R-Miami, texted Hollingsworth on Nov. 29 of last year.

"Adam, would the governor support in state tuition for us citizens? It's great PR for Hispanic voters and the students are voters. The fix is simple language adding ''or the last two years in a Florida high school."

A second text states: "Nothing to so with illegal immigrants." Hollingsworth asks if he can call Artiles back about the issue.

(Since this time, Scott has come out in favor of a bill that in fact allows children who came to the United States illegally to receive in-state tuition. But Scott's support is because the Senate version includes his push to get rid of a state law that lets state universities charge tuition above the amount set annually by the Legislature.)

An Oct. 9 text message from Gaston Cantens, a former state legislator who now works for Florida Crystals, states: "Any word on the 3rd DCA apptment? I'm hearing this will be the third hispanic judge to retire from 3rd dca under scott and replaced by anglos." (On Oct. 18 Scott appointed Edwin Scales, a Key West attorney, radio host and former politician and a member of the Florida Bar of Governors to the court. He replaced Judge Angel Cortinas. It would appear that Scales was the second, not third, person appointed by Scott to replace a Hispanic. Scott appointed Cuban-born Ivan Fernandez in 2011 to the court.)

Sept. 18 text from Rep. Marti Coley: "Any news on a Liberty Co. Superintendent? The suspense about the Liberty County Superintendent is killing me."

Randy Miller with the Florida Retail Federation on Sept. 17 of last year wrote: "Enjoyed our tax relief suggestions meeting the other day. The only way to get tax relief directly to Joe Lunchbucket is through sales tax holidays. Expanding the Back to School Holiday from 3 days to 9 days would be a big hit with soccer moms and parents of all stripes. For those without school children, you could institute an Energy-Star Holiday which would have multiple benefits, savings on utility bills and environmental benefits...Great PR for Gov if he pushes this in his budget."

Newly-elected Rep. Mike Hill sent a message to Scott via text through Hollingsworth, telling him on Sept. 4 that "really liked' the governor's tax-cutting speech at Americans For Prosperity and that "it would be an honor for me to carry a tax/fee cutting bill for you."

On the issue of a search for LG there were several, including one from Hillsborough County Commissioner Sandra Murman, who on the short-list at one time.

Murman on Nov. 8: "Hi Adam. Thank you again for coming to Tampa to interview me. I am honored to be considred for the Governor' dynamic team."

A few weeks later hospital executive and former top Jeb Bush aide Alan Levine texted: "Sandy Murman called me Monday. Will call u tomorrow to download. Have you considered Susan Latvala? Squishy R from Pinellas. Happy Thanksgiving!!!"(Latvala, a Pinellas County Commissioner, wound up endorsing Democrat Alex Sink in the battle to replace the late U.S. Rep. Bill Young.)

On Jan. 14 the day that Scott announced the appointment of Carlos Lopez-Cantera as his LG Allan Bense texted Hollingsworth: "Brilliant move today." Bense, the former House speaker, is chairman of the Florida State University board and father-in-law of current speaker Will Weatherford.