The Fine Print

Some things to take away from Florida primary (other than who won)

Well if everything goes according to plan Mitt Romney will leave Florida's Jan. 31 primary with a convincing victory that could likely give him the GOP nomination for president.

But there are other things to mull over once Romney leaves and the Tuesday night speeches are finalized.

Turnout/enthusiasm. You could see the hand-writing on the wall for the 2010 elections when you look at what happened in the primary elections. Nearly 1.3 million Republicans voted in the bitter primary for governor between Bill McCollum and Rick Scott. By contrast slightly more than 917,000 Democrats voted in Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.

At the time Democratic operatives pooh-poohed the difference, contending it would all change for the fall elections and that the Democratic voter registration edge would prove the difference in the general election. Democrats of course got trounced, losing the governor's mansion, seats in Congress and spots on the Cabinet.

It doesn't matter that Alex Sink got 2.55 million votes. She still wound up losing to Scott despite Scott's background (think Columbia/HCA and the record fine for Medicare fraud after he was forced to leave the company.) Republicans did a better job of getting their voters out to the polls.

As of Monday, more than 623,000 Republicans had voted early or absentee in the primary.

Four years ago more than 1.94 million Republicans voted in a wide-open presidential primary held at roughly the same time.

There will be some attempt to say these numbers are skewed and point out that Amendment 1 (a measure to cut property taxes) was on the ballot during the same election.

But if Republicans dramatically fall short of the 1.94 million - or surpass that total - it could yield some clues about the overall intensity of the GOP base heading into the fall elections.

Yes, I realize that Republican voters will be fired up to cast a vote against President Barack Obama in November, but I have to think the Obama campaign will be look deeply into these turnout numbers to gauge how rough it may be to win Florida in November. Additionally, you can expect both parties to spin these numbers as well.

How did Romney fare in particular counties?

Some colleagues in the press have already ticked off some of the counties they are paying attention to, such as Pinellas or Miami-Dade or Duval.

Miami-Dade remains one of the most pivotal because Romney fared so badly there during the 2008 presidential primary. Miami-Dade has nearly 265,000 Hispanic Republicans - or more than half of the state's total. More than 70 percent of GOP voters in that county identify themselves as Hispanic. A big win there will prove that Romney's position on immigration did not hurt him there and may not be the wedge issue that Democrats keep hoping it will be (at least here in Florida.)

Other counties that will be worth looking at are those in Southwest Florida.

Romney won Collier and Lee counties back in January 2008, but one can argue that was before the full impact of the meltdown of the housing market left its mark there. If Romney falters in these two safe GOP counties, it could be interpreted that some of the attacks on him (and which will likely be copied by the Obama campaign) worked.

Early voting/absentee ballots

On a lesser note, it will be interesting to see how many Republicans voted absentee and voted early versus showing up on primary day given the aversion that some GOP legislators have to early voting.

If primary day voting is slow, you can expect an uptick in complaints about early voting. Some legislators such as Sen. Ellyn Bogdanoff have long complained that early voting hurts the process, especially what she calls "grassroots" candidates who do not have the resources to match a more-established, well-funded candidate.

Alex Sink says this is "probably the smartest" thing Rick Scott has done while governor

On the campaign trail, Gov. Rick Scott accused his Democratic rival of allowing the state’s pension fund to lose billions when she was in office.

 One hard-hitting television ad said that Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink had allowed the state to invest in “risky investments” and a spokesman even called her oversight of the retirement fund for teachers, state workers and county employees a “disaster.”

“You have been a failed fiscal watchdog,’’ Scott told Sink during one of their televised debates.

But in the two-and-a-half months since Scott became governor he has made no sweeping changes in the agency that oversees the pension fund – or pushed to change any of the investment policies now in place. He’s left in place Ash Williams, the executive director of the State Board of Administration, the agency that runs the state pension plan.

The target of his attacks says Scott may have learned after the election that things were better than he suggested.

“Maybe he’s seen the light and recognized we definitely have one of the top five pension funds in the country,’’ Sink said.

Sink added that his decision so far to not make any changes is “probably the smartest thing he’s done for now.”

Read the story here at the Herald-Tribune.

Did harsh campaign for governor turn off voters? Report says maybe.

The highly charged and negative campaign for governor might have turned off a higher number of voters this past year.

Or so suggests a new state report drawn up by the Florida Division of Elections.

The report - which is sent to the Florida Legislature after every major election - shows that the number of voters who did not cast a "valid" vote in November nearly doubled from four years ago, surging from .97 percent in 2006 to 1.83 percent overall. This number includes people who wrote down the wrong name on the ballot, left the ballot blank, or cast a vote for more than one candidate.

The biggest reason for the jump was because voters skipped the race between Rick Scott and Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink and left the ballot blank.

You can read more about it here at the Florida Tribune.

Here's a copy of the report: Download Overvote Undervote report

Federal judge won't let Gov. Scott off the hook

Put this down in the "whatever happened to?" department.

A federal judge has refused to end a lawsuit that then-candidate Rick Scott used to block a key part of Florida’s public campaign finance system.

Scott last summer won a preliminary injunction from a federal appeals court that said the state could not give GOP rival Bill McCollum a dollar-for-dollar match of taxpayer money if Scott spent more than $24.9 million on his campaign.

The ruling was a blow to McCollum’s campaign who could not compete with Scott’s financial edge. Scott won the primary and then went on to spend roughly $73 million to win the governor’s race.

After Scott won the primary, his lawyers and lawyers for the Department of State asked a Tallahassee federal judge for a permanent injunction against the matching money provision.

But U.S. Judge Robert Hinkle in December shot down the request and instead put a hold on the lawsuit while the U.S. Supreme Court decides campaign finance cases from other states.

Hinkle noted that then interim Secretary of State Dawn Roberts had changed her position to fit the viewpoint of Scott.

“There is every reason to believe her change of heart was prompted solely by a good faith analysis of the evolving law in this area,” wrote Hinkle, noting the appeals court injunction. “But it is also true Ms. Roberts’ new position accords with that of the plaintiff – her soon to be new boss. The circumstances raise an issue, at least, over whether the court should act at all, and whether, if the court is going to act, the state’s interest in defending the statute should have independent representation.”

Republicans wanted to end the state’s public finance system entirely, but the amendment that would have removed it from the Florida Constitution was defeated by voters. 

Taxpayers wound up spending more than $5.82 million on campaigns in 2010.That amount could have been higher but the combination of the ruling in the Scott case - as well as Alex Sink's decision to decline any public money kept down the overall total.

Rick Scott's math problems

During his campaign for governor Rick Scott sharply attacked Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink for some of her budget proposals and said that they would be too expensive. Scott then quipped that Sink was practicing "Obama math." That led to Sink's own rejoinder that she didn't know what Obama math was even though she had been a math major at Wake Forest University.

In the next few weeks, Scott, however, will have to show how his math adds up.

Scott must hand over his own budget recommendations to the Florida Legislature by Feb. 4 - or about a month before the 2011 session. The tight time schedule is one of the reasons that many people in Gov. Charlie Crist's budget office were given until next June to resign. Scott's team - led by Donna Arduin, the budget chief for former Gov. Jeb Bush - have already started working furiously on the proposal. Arduin has been given her own office on the 17th floor of the Capitol to help with the effort.

This budget proposal could be the key in determining how successful Scott will be during his first year in office. And it will be interesting to see how Scott will accomplish the budget goals he outlined during his campaign.

Math problem No. 1: Scott says in his "7-7-7" jobs plan that he could save nearly $1.4 billion by requiring employees to start contributing for their own pensions (pg. 12). But as explained in this story in the Herald-Tribune the state of Florida is only paying slightly less than $700 million now on behalf of its employees. The rest of the money flowing into the Florida Retirement System actually comes from counties, school districts, sheriffs and other local governments.

So how does Scott make up the difference? One possible explanation is that he will use employee contributions from school districts - namely teachers - to help pay for the property tax cut he also wants to offer. Scott has proposed slashing school property taxes by 19 percent, but he says he would do it without cutting funding to education. So if you ask teachers to start paying for their own pensions, which would reduce their salary, is that, or is that not, a cut?

When pushed this week to explain how Scott planned to get $1.4 billion in savings, Lt. Gov. Jennifer Carroll said it would be revealed in Scott's budget plan. "Stay tuned,'' she said.

Math problem No. 2: Scott's team has said that the governor-elect plans to aggressively move ahead with his school reform proposals in the coming year. Scott's plan got some attention at the time he announced it, but there was plenty of coverage following his appearance Thursday at a rally of groups who help provide corporate income tax scholarships -  or "vouchers" - to low-income families. Scott again repeated his call for offering every student in Florida the opportunity of going to the school of their choice.

It has been previously noted that Scott wants to cut the corporate income tax while potentially expanding the scholarships, which are funded to a large extent by the tax. There's also legal implications to Scott's plan that may not be solved without a constitutional amendment given past Supreme Court rulings on vouchers.

But on top of that there remains the practical question of how much it would cost to expand vouchers and virtual education beyond current use. (Although it's important to remember that legislators this past year authorized the expansion of the one of the state's main voucher programs.) There will be some argument that you can save money by moving children out of public schools into private ones - but that depends on how much funding is authorized and whether or not the state plans to pick up the complete cost or merely subsidize part of it. Plus, there is the cost of helping pay for students already in private schools or students who are home schooled. The latest figures from the Department of Education show more than 62,000 children are home-schooled and more than 313,000 are in private schools.

Math problem No. 3: The existing budget shortfall - which is not a "deficit" - is now moving ever higher than previously forecast. This week brought news of higher than expected expenditures in Medicaid, lower property tax values for schools (although that dropped the cost of Scott's property tax cut plan slightly) and lower-than-anticipated sales tax collections over the last three months. Combined this pushes the expected budget shortfall to more than $3 billion.

Some of the projected shortfall is due to the loss of federal stimulus funds and continued growth in Medicaid but the shortfall is also dependent on legislative action. Lawmakers can whittle down this shortfall if they decide to forego some expenses such as buying environmentally-sensitive land or refusing to maintain student funding at current levels. Scott has suggested his own ways to deal with the budget shortfall, including cuts in the state prison system and the elimination of 5 percent of the state workforce (which is already the leanest and cheapest in the nation according to a new report from the Department of Management Services.)

Still Sen. J.D. Alexander, R-Lake Wales, was cautious when asked this week how he plans to fill the shortfall while at the same time going along with Scott's plan to cut property taxes and corporate income taxes. Alexander said one big place to look for savings will be Medicaid. Legislative leaders and Scott agree on making changes to the health care program, although there remains questions as to whether or not the federal government would sign off on them.

But then Alexander said that while he would like to put money back into Floridians pockets he said it won't be an easy task to balance the budget, saying that lawmakers have already made a lot of cuts the last few years. He also then made sure to say that the campaign is over and now it's time to govern.

"I would hope that all of us take a deep breath and move away from campaign rhetoric and start focusing on how do we make the best decisions possible to move our state forward," Alexander said.

 

 

When's the music's over for Gov. Charlie Crist

Gov. Charlie Crist, whose own political career may or may not be coming to an end on Jan. 4, will get a last splash of national and international publicity on Thursday when the state clemency board votes on whether to grant a pardon to James Morrison, a.k.a Jim Morrison, the lead singer for The Doors, for his conviction stemming from his notorious concert in Miami in 1969.

Morrison's case will be no. 40 on the clemency agenda under the heading of "undetermined recommendations."

Fans of the dead rock star had been asking Crist to take action during his entire time in office. But the governor never gave a definitive answer on whether or not he thought Morrison deserved a pardon until recently.

Crist can't give out a pardon on his own, but he has the two other votes on the clemency board he needs to grant it. Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, who a year ago said she did not know who Morrison is, said on Wednesday that she had spent the afternoon reviewing the case file and listening to his music and would go along with it.

Does the pardon have some political risk if Sink and Crist choose to run for office later? Maybe. The governor's office on Wednesday that Crist's office has received almost 200 inquiries about the case. Through e-mails, letters and phone calls there were 120 people in support of the pardon and 77 opposed. The ACLU has weighed in and complained that Crist is taking time to deal with Morrison while there remain problems with the restoration of civil rights for those who are still living.

Stan Newsom, for example, wrote Crist and said: "I am a big fan of The Doors, but for the life of me I can't understand why you would consider wasting the governments money to even entertain this idea. It will have no impact on Mr. Morrison and will cost money for you to take any actions to grant such a pardon. A ridiculous idea, please quit spending the taxpayers money for this trivial stuff.

Ruth Nixon, who called herself a registered voter from Apopka, wrote Crist and said: "He was a great singer and a proud Floridian. His fans would like to see his name cleared." Roxy Feldman called a pardon "the right thing to do" and noted that she was a Democrat who had voted for Crist as governor and for U.S. Senate.

Michele Epstein from New York City wrote Crist and said the fact that Morrison in 1970 he was cleared on drunkenness and lascivious behavior charges yet convicted of indecent exposure of profanity was "incomprehensible and bizarre." She wrote that "logically he should either been convicted of all four, or none of the charges. Furthermore the fact that not a single photograph, taken by many individuals at that Miami concert, shows Morrison exposing himself, clearly indicates a miscarriage of justice...I have read a great deal about that event and the subsequent trial and cannot believe that none of your predecessors has seen fit to exonerate one of your most gifted and famous "sons." 

Denis Quilligan, who called himself a "retired law enforcement officer" who worked for both the St. Petersburg Police Department and then the State Attorney's Office, was adamant that the pardon should not be granted.

"Jim Morrison was fairly tried and convicted in Dade County in 1970 and that conviction should remain on his record,'' wrote Qulligan. "Your pardoning him would be an affront to the judicial system and law enforcement generally. You have a earned a great deal of respect during your term as Governor. Please, please, let that conviction stand!"

Shannon Marcum from Ohio wrote Crist and suggested that it would harm Morrison's image as a rebel if the pardon was granted.

"Although I was not yet born when this occurred, the music of the Doors and Mr. Morrison have been a great part of my life. As a professional touring musician in my youth and the 38-year-old dad in sales I am today, the mystique of Jim Morrison lived on and off stage and I am sure many would agree with me in saying his pain made him a genius, like many tormented artists before him.  It is my opinion that to right this wrong at this point would somehow erase the most important crossroads of his life. The rebel in that skin has transcended time and generations and has been passed on in his soul and his words. I would like to ask you to reconsider this issue and NOT grant this pardon."

(Photo courtesy of the Museum of Florida History)

Which lame duck will break on through for Gov. Charlie Crist?

Gov. Charlie Crist this week said he would go ahead and push to issue a posthumous pardon to the late Jim Morrison. That decision brought national and international exposure to Crist in the waning days of his governorship, and for now, his political career.

Crist has already started the wheels in motion and late Wednesday the governor's office requested that the Florida Parole Commission officially launch an investigation into whether the dead rock singer deserves a pardon from his 40-year-old conviction for indecent exposure.

As noted here in today's N.Y. Times, Miami-Dade County State Attorney Katherine Fernandez Rundle does not plan to contest the pardon. “While I can never condone Morrison’s actions of exposing himself to an audience I will not waste my lawyers’ time in an effort to fight an attempted pardon,'' she said in a statement.

But former Gov. Claude Kirk - who was in charge of the state when Morrison's antics made headlines - questioned the need for a pardon, saying that the state didn't do anything to him and that "Morrison died in the condition he elected to die."

Crist, however, can't give a pardon out by himself. He needs the votes of at least two other members on the Cabinet, which will meet as the clemency board on Dec. 9. Of course, like Crist, all three members of the Cabinet are leaving office in January.

Agriculture Commissioner Charles Bronson has already said that he is open to a pardon. But there's no guarantee that either Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink - who last year said she didn't know who Jim Morrison is - or Attorney General Bill McCollum would go along.

When asked about this week, McCollum made it clear that while he was "open" to reviewing the case that doesn't mean he will go along with a pardon.

"I want to see the case again kind of refreshed before I make any determination," said McCollum. "I'm going to have to review it."

Kevin Cate, a spokesman for Sink, said the CFO was also reserving final judgment until she saw the results of the Parole Commission's investigation.

"CFO Sink is open to a pardon of Jim Morrison and will make her decision after evaluating the report from the Parole Commission,'' Cate said.

 

 

 

 

Break on through for Mr. Mojo Risin? Not so fast.

After several years of refusing to give a definitive yes or no about a posthumous pardon for Jim Morrison, Gov. Charlie Crist this week said "why not?" when discussing the matter with members of the press corps.

This was as close to anything resembling a yes that Crist has said in the nearly four years since he was first asked about whether the dead singer deserves a pardon stemming from his arrest for a notorious 1969 concert in Coconut Grove. His conviction was on appeal when he died in a bathtub in a Paris bathroom in 1971.

And this past week there has been a media frenzy regarding the possible pardon of the Florida native and alumnus of Florida State University.

But Crist had an important caveat about whether he would pursue a pardon: It all depended on support from other Cabinet members, including outgoing Attorney General Bill McCollum and Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink. (It takes a vote by both the governor and two of the three members of the Cabinet to grant a pardon.)

Sink, as you may recall, said a year ago she didn't know that Morrison was the lead singer of The Doors although she says she now knows who he is.

Both Sink and McCollum did say this week they were open to considering a pardon. Agriculture Commissioner Charles Bronson has previously said he was willing to consider it.

But there are both bureaucratic and yes, even political hurdles, that may stop any of this from happening.

First of all, either Crist or a Cabinet member has to officially request to place Morrison's name on the agenda for the December meeting of the clemency board under what is called Rule 17.Then there's a question of whether there would be time for the Florida Parole Commission to conduct an investigation in time for that meeting. It is routine for the commission to look at the actual case files - and to also try to talk to people associated with it - before issuing a recommendation.

And who knows what that confidential investigation may conclude.

There could be arguments that the main allegation against Morrison - that he exposed himself - was never decisively proven since there is no photographic evidence of that happening.

But on the other hand, it can be argued that Morrison never showed any remorse for his actions and that his decision to move to France was evidence that he was prepared to live as an exile if his appeal was not granted. Even Morrison's own attorney told the N.Y. Times this week that Morrison acted stupidly and that being an artist doesn't justify antisocial behavior.

The political reality is that McCollum and Sink may conclude that they have no desire to revive the cultural wars of the late '60s, especially if either one of them has aspirations of future office.

There also could be those who argue that this case isn't important enough to take up at this time.

Doors fans who have pursued the case, however, have their own ammunition, including that potential 2012 presidential candidate Mike Huckabee granted a pardon to Rolling Stones guitarist Keith Richards for a reckless driving charge back when Huckabee was governor of Arkansas.

What does seem certain at this point is that this may be The End, one way or the other, on this matter.

Given the amount of media attention generated this past week it's hard to imagine that Governor-elect Rick Scott or his fellow Cabinet members will want to have anything to do with this case in 2011.

 

 

 

Lesson No. 1 from 2010: "It's all about the base."

Current Republican Party of Florida Chairman John Thrasher had a mantra that he used over and over again during the 2002 re-election campaign of Jeb Bush.

"It's all about the base,'' Thrasher would say and then smile. "Remember, it's all about the base."

If there is any lesson about 2010 for Florida Democrats that may indeed be it.

For the last four gubernatorial cycles, Democrats have been unable to field the type of candidate who would inspire their base - from teachers, union workers, African-Americans or you name it - to defeat the Republican candidate on the ballot.

Alex Sink, who despite the GOP attacks on her, was actually a cautious and at times moderate politician. Sink, who went out of her way to not be seen on President Barack Obama, now joins a list of other middle-of-the road Democrats who could not find a path to victory.

That list includes her husband, Bill McBride, who was embraced eight years ago on the grounds that he would be more electable than Janet Reno, despite her strong following in South Florida. The feeling among many Democratic leaders was that Reno was too liberal and would lose to Bush.

Two months ago Steve Schale, the Democratic operative who led Obama's successful effort in Florida in 2008, contended that the 600,000 edge in voter registration between Democrats and Republicans was enough to provide a wall to an impending GOP tide. That's why it made sense, he argued, to have a candidate who could appeal to the independent voters of the state.

Democrats also made a decision this campaign cycle to attack Republicans over their series of financial scandals - including the indictments of Ray Sansom and Jim Greer - as opposed to either focusing on the economy or on wedge issues that could have helped with the Democratic base.

Well, you can see the result: A sweep in the Cabinet, a veto-proof majority in the Florida Legislature and the election of Rick Scott, a candidate who was initially deemed unelectable by many members of the Republican establishment.

Overall, turnout on Tuesday was greater than it was four years ago. More than 5.3 million votes were cast compared to 4.88 million in the race that Jim Davis lost to Charlie Crist.

Sink will go down as a candidate who did better than the three previous candidates for governor. And did get a higher number of votes in several Democratic leaning counties including Broward. She also did exceptionally well in Miami-Dade where in the closing days she ran a hard-hitting radio ad going after Scott on his immigration policy.

But take a closer look: She did no better than Davis did in Palm Beach County. The presence of Rod Smith, a Gainesville prosecutor and another moderate, only added about 5,000 votes in Democratic-leaning Alachua County.

Now take a look at Scott's numbers: He did better in GOP strongholds then Crist did back in 2006, such as Bay, Brevard, Collier, Escambia, and Lee. Scott also picked up nearly 17,000 more votes in Miami-Dade County than Crist did four years earlier.

So Lesson No. 1 again - it's all about the base.

 

 

Florida's wild expensive election could have big stakes

Florida's bitter, expensive and wild election season will finally lurch to a close on Tuesday.

Voters, besieged by a barrage of political ads, could be forgiven for thinking that the main issues are Medicare fraud, lockstep devotion to President Barack Obama and reckless plans to raise taxes.

But the election's impact on a state with a million residents out of work and hundreds of thousands of homes in foreclosure looms far more prominently than all that campaign vitriol filling airwaves and mailboxes.

"I think that Florida is at a crossroads and so is our country, and the Florida election can make a determination of the future of America," said Gov. Charlie Crist, running as an independent for U.S. Senate.

Crist's decision to leave office after just one term to run for a Senate seat helped spark a frenzied run for governor and marked the first time in more than 100 years that both the governor and all the seats on the Cabinet were open at the same time.

Democrats hope to win back the governor's mansion after 12 years of Republican control and begin to chip away at GOP dominance of the Florida Legislature.

"There's an opportunity here in this election to bring some balance back," said Karen Thurman, chairman of the Florida Democratic Party.

Florida voters could help decide the direction of the country and the state. They could help Republicans seize the U.S. House, give the Legislature a veto-proof majority, or pass amendments that could alter the state's political makeup.

A longer look at Florida's high-stakes election can be found here.