The Fine Print

The money, gifts and trips edition

IIt's a special summertime money, gifts and trips edition of inside the Tallahassee bubble....

BOUND FOR FRANCE...As it happens every year when the humidity bears down oppressively on the Florida capital, many people in the state's political hierarchy are nowhere near North Florida.

Legislators of course have long gone back home. But the state Supreme Court is also on summer break, the Florida Cabinet is on hiatus until mid-August and Gov. Rick Scott's time in Tallahassee is likewise kept at a minimum (of course unless a serious storm threatens the state.)

One staple for legislators in the past has been visits to various conferences, including ones held by the National Conference of State Legislators or the American Legislative Exchange Council.

Many years these conferences are held in cooler and more pleasant environments than Florida. This year, NCSL is holding its annual legislative summit in Boston on Aug. 6 through Aug 9, while ALEC held its annual meeting last month in Denver.

Attendance to these events was usually higher back when legislative leaders routinely approved travel expenses for members. The tradition used to be that members would have one trip a year paid out of the House and Senate budgets.

That's not how it works anymore.

House Speaker Richard Corcoran allows members to pay for the trips out of their own district accounts, as opposed to having his office cover the expenses. (State law allows legislators to transfer unused campaign money into these accounts.)

"The speaker no longer approves travel for members but he is holding the members accountable if they are questioned on their expenses,'' said Fred Piccolo, a spokesman for Corcoran. "In other words, they have to be prepared to defend their travel."

Over in the Senate, however, there are a handful of members who have been approved for trips this year, said Katie Betta, a spokeswoman for Senate President Joe Negron.

When asked about it recently, Betta said that Sens. Audrey Gibson and Oscar Braynon had been approved to attend the NCSL summit in Boston. Betta also said that John Phelps, the Senate Committee on Rules staff director and former long-time House clerk, had also been permitted to go because of his "international reputation as a legislative historian."

Betta also said that Sen. Anitere Flores (pictured above) had been chosen to represent the Florida Senate in the NCSL Executive Leadership Development program being held in Normandy, France from Sept. 25 to Oct. 1.

BONDI'S TRAVELS...Speaking of trips, disclosure forms show that Attorney General Pam Bondi continues to take trips to Washington D.C. and elsewhere that are paid by various groups she's involved with.

Bondi had nearly $28,000 worth of travel provided to her in 2016, which included a "weeklong diplomacy mission to Israel" in late May-early June 2016 that cost $5,000 and was paid by the America-Israel Friendship League.

Bondi said shortly after the trip she traveled with seven other attorneys general and that "it allowed the members of the delegation to meet face-to-face with cybersecurity experts, national legal leaders and top government officials to share strategies to bolster public safety and security."

Bondi, who was once was the chairman and now sits on the executive committee of the Republican Attorneys General Association,  had several trips paid by the RAGA and the Rule of Law Defense Fund, which bills itself as "the public policy organization for issues relevant to the nation’s Republican attorneys general and promotes the rule of law, federalism, and freedom in a civil society."

The association, for example, picked up the cost of Bondi's travel to the Republican National Convention in Cleveland where she gave a speech that included her saying about Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton "Lock her up, I love that."

Bondi also reported that it was RAGA that picked up costs related to her attending the inauguration of President Donald Trump in January.

The group _ which was called a "money machine" by The New York Times _ has seen its activities come under scrutiny, because its meetings are held at resorts where large donors have access to attorneys general who can play a role in deciding whether to investigate corporations or get involved in policy fights.

The latest meeting for RAGA was held in Lake Tahoe late last month and Bondi was in attendance. She has not yet turned in her gift forms for that time period.

AN OLD TUXEDO, WINE AND CIGARS...While legislators and other top state officials are not allowed to take gifts directly from lobbyists or the principals who hire lobbyists, state officials can accept gifts from others that are worth more than $100 if they report them.

A look through some forms shows that only Bondi and Corcoran are the only top officials to regularly file them.

Scott, former Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater, and Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam have maintained that they have received zero gifts worth $100 or more in recent years.

One top public official, however, who has disclosed gifts on a routine basis is Corcoran.

A review of his forms for this year shows that Corcoran accepted a "old tuxedo" from fellow representative and House budget chairman Carlos Trujillo at the time of the presidential inauguration. Sen. Keith Perry gave Corcoran a box of cigars worth $100 in late January.

But Negron - whose relationship with Corcoran seemed strained at times during the legislative session and subsequent special session - gave Corcoran a "humidor, crystal, wine, lighter and cutter" worth approximately $1,000 during the first week of the 2017 session.

Fellow House Rep. Ralph Massullo gave Corcoran $400 worth of wine in early May, while Rep. Travis Cummings gave the Republican speaker about $100 worth of wine two weeks later.

A request for gift forms in fact shows Corcoran has been filing them as far back as 2011 - when he got $200 of cigars from then (and now lobbyist) Rep. Chris Dorworth. Future House Speaker Rep. Jose Oliva _ and who along with his family created a successful cigar business _  has also given him cigars on several occasions.

Then-Sen. Frank Artiles (who resigned this spring after using racial slurs during a tirade at a Tallahassee bar) gave Corcoran a "gun and display" worth $1,000 last November. Corcoran has gotten grilling tools, artwork and even DVD copies of speeches made by famed economist Milton Friedman.

But maybe the most interesting gift Corcoran reported? A sword he got in Sept. 2015 from Mat Bahl, an attorney and former chief of staff for House Speaker Dean Cannon who became Corcoran's chief of staff last year.

BIG PRICE-TAG FOR SENATE GOP FUNDRAISER...Remember the fundraiser for the Florida Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee held at the famed Torrey Pines golf course in June? It got some publicity because there was concern that this year's budget-related special session would collide with it.

Well it appears the fundraiser - which attracted the attendance of many well-known Senate Republicans - wasn't cheap, according to campaign finance reports. The GOP committee _ which gets its money from groups seeking to pass or defeat legislation in the Legislature _ spent more than $77,000 on lodging, meals and golf fees for the two-day event.

There's no requirement that an organization breakout how much money is received at a single fundraiser. The committee reported that it raised $720,000 during the quarter that ended on June 30.

 

The looming budget battle in Florida: A primer

Well, here we go.

After watching the prelude for weeks, the Florida Legislature and its Republican leaders will finally put pen to paper this week (so to speak) and release their detailed spending plans for the coming fiscal year.

After listening to leaders in the House and Senate discuss their priorities, the expectations are that the rival budgets could be widely divergent in what they cut, what they keep and what they enhance.

There are a multiple reasons for that, whether it's Senate President Joe Negron's push for increased money for state universities, or House Speaker Richard Corcoran's insistence that the state shutter its economic development agency Enterprise Florida.

But less noticed is that the House, Senate and Gov. Rick Scott have chosen to include information that supports their arguments, while seemingly sidestepping other salient points. This could influence the tenor of the debate that is about to intensify.

So it might be worthwhile and step back for just a second to recall how everybody got here and what's important to remember for the budget battle that still lies ahead.

So here's a few things to understand:

DON'T CALL IT A DEFICIT: There is no budget deficit this year. Plain and simple.

To understand the underlying budget situation, it's important to realize this. In Florida a deficit occurs when the state collects less money than what is needed to pay for things that are in the budget.

Florida's tax collections are in fact growing. The main budget account - known as the general revenue account - is expected to grow in the current fiscal year by 4.4 percent, or $1.23 billion.  This same account, which relies on a variety of tax sources but primarily the state's sales tax, is expected to grow $1.16 billion - or 3.9 percent - in the fiscal year that starts on July 1. That's a stark difference from the depths of The Great Recession when legislators were required to cut spending (or in 2009 raises taxes) to make the math work.

So then where does the confusion lie?

Well, let's start with a document called the Long-Range Financial Outlook. Thanks to current Sen. Tom Lee, the voters in 2006 approved a constitutional amendment that requires the development of an outlook that looks out over a three-year period and reviews both sides of the ledger - the expected spending and the revenue coming in.

The outlook comes out once a year. The one approved in September found that when balanced together legislators had a windfall of only $7.5 million for the 2017-18 fiscal year. And the economists and analysts who put it together warned of a "structural imbalance" that could create a sizable budget gap in the years to follow. That has sparked talk of deep budget cuts including a House plan to cut at least $1.4 billion alone in the coming year.

But it's important to remember this budget gap is a summary of both revenues - and expenses.

The long-range outlook put together assumes nearly 50 different expenditures - and that greatly impacts the bottom line.

Let's start with tax cuts: The overall outlook assumes that there will be $254 million in recurring tax cuts in each of the next three years. This is based on a historical average in recent years, but the point is this, part of the projected gap is based on the assumption that legislators will continue to cut taxes, which adds to the potential shortfall, which helps trigger the need for cuts elsewhere to close that gap.

The budget shortfall or gap that is projected to occur is also driven by a long line of other spending decisions where economists plugged in the numbers based on historical decisions made by legislators: The outlook assumes a $1 billion reserve on top of other existing budget reserves. It assumes that legislators will fully fund increased enrollment in public schools, pay for increases in Medicaid, and set aside more than $400 million over the next three years to pay for increased costs associated with the state employee health insurance program.

But there's more - the outlook assumes an increase of per-student funding above enrollment growth, grants to libraries and museums, local government park grants, and in the out years money spent on replacing a law-enforcement radio system and the replacement of Florida's accounting system.

So what does that mean? In reality, the budget debate is one about choices.

Do legislators choose to keep cutting taxes? Do they choose to keep spending money on certain things? Do they choose to make deep cuts due to a philosophical belief that government is too big and too expensive? Do they refuse to revisit past decisions that contribute to their structural imbalance - including for example - decisions to give out tax credits to various businesses. This could include anything from the insurance tax credit that is targeted by the Senate, or the tax credit scholarship program that continues to grow. (The amount of tax credits available for the scholarship program is projected to increase from $559 million this fiscal year to nearly $699 million next year.)

THE SCHOOL TAX DEBATE:  If there is one item that could derail the entire budget process it's the thorny annual dilemma over school property taxes.

Here's the problem: As property values rise, this translates into more money collected by local school districts that could be spent on public schools. In other words, if the value of your home goes up you will pay more in taxes in the coming year - unless the tax rate is lowered by an equal amount to offset the increase in values.

Legislators don't appropriate this local property tax money - BUT - they do draw up spending plans that assumes a mixture of both local and state funding. This is known as the Florida Education Finance Program or FEFP and districts that wish to draw down the state funding must collect a certain amount of money. (This is known as the required local effort or RLE.)

Republican leaders, including Scott, have used these increased local tax dollars to boost the overall amount spent on public schools. Some legislators have defended the practice by noting when property values plunged during the Great Recession that the state helped offset the loss (but not completely.) 

But Corcoran has vowed that he will not let this happen this year - and he's taken a much stronger stance on this than practically every other spending item in play.

Important piece of history: Corcoran was chief of staff for then-House Speaker Marco Rubio when the Legislature waged a lengthy debate over property taxes during a time when Florida's real-estate market was super heated. The position of the GOP-controlled Legislature at the time was pretty simple: If local governments take in more tax dollars because of rising values, then it's a tax increase. Legislators forced cities and counties to roll back their tax rates. So Corcoran is being consistent with that position. (Also worth noting: Several senators, then in the Florida House, also took that position. Dennis Baxley, Anitere Flores, Bill Galvano, Denise Grimsley and Perry Thurston voted in favor of the bill to force local tax rollbacks.)

Scott has maintained that this isn't a tax increase and his own budget recommendation relies on nearly $558 million in increased local school taxes to help pay for an overall 3 percent increase in per-student funding. Scott has tried to suggest this is no different than if the price of a car goes up and you pay higher taxes  because of the higher price. Yeah, but the government doesn't set the price of a car. In this instance government at both the state and local level have a hand in deciding how much property owners will spend.

BREAKING DOWN OTHER FLASHPOINTS...Quick hits on remaining things to look for and understand:

GAMBLING: Right now all these budget projections being thrown out do not assume any changes in Florida's gambling laws or a new compact with the Seminole Tribe. That means if - and it's a pretty big if - legislators could stroke a deal with the Seminoles and the rest of the players in the seemingly intractable gambling turf war it could provide an injection of cash that could help smooth things over.

GULF COAST SPILL MONEY: While this may not command a lot of attention around the state, the ongoing tug-of-war over money the state received as part of a settlement over the 2010 BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is part of the overall dynamic that will decide how this session ends up. The state last year got $400 million as its first installment. Under an existing law some $300 million is supposed to go to eight Panhandle counties that were impacted the most by the spill. But the Legislature has to yet to agree to send the money out the door.

Corcoran and House leaders didn't like the arrangement allowed under the existing law so they have crafted a bill that places more oversight on the spending - and prohibits any of the money being used on economic development projects. The Senate so far has a different approach and they have not agreed to all the House restrictions. This money is a big, big deal to the Panhandle Republicans and in Tallahassee parlance - this is their going home bill - meaning they can't go home unless they get it worked out.

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: This item has gotten plenty of press especially since it has triggered a feud between Scott - who wants to keep funding intact for the state's economic development agency - and House leaders who want to eliminate Enterprise Florida and scale back Visit Florida, the tourism marking agency. The Senate so far is siding with Scott. The question is will they remain in sync with the governor all the way to the finish line.

HIGHER EDUCATION: Negron's bid to increase funding to state universities as part of an effort to propel them into the top ranks of the nation's public colleges is going to be rebuffed by House leaders who contend that universities are misspending what they have now (some of which came with the help of legislators who placed projects into university spending lines.) The one word of caution in this debate is that numbers get thrown around sometimes without a clear sense of what they mean.

Universities are dependent on several streams of funding and it appears so far that the House is lumping everything in to make an argument about overall spending. There are differences between straight state funding and the money that universities take in from other sources - whether it's tuition, money from federal grants, or money medical schools earn from seeing patients. For example, the amount of tuition money can go up even if the rates don't because universities admit more students. T

The House has zeroed in on spending among the foundations and whether it's proper for the universities to use state funding to subsidize fundraising operations. So far, the universities have had a muted response and not given a clear explanation as to practice. One big question is whether or not the House will advocate for blocking universities from using their foundations to pay university employees above state limits.

TRUST FUNDS: It's important to remember that some taxes and fees charged by the state don't wind up in the main budget account. Instead they are set aside in what are known as trust funds. Year in and year out special interests groups argue that money collected in these funds belong to them. And year after year the Legislature politely ignores this and transfers money of these trust funds and uses to help balance the budget.

SPEND NOW, PAY LATER? Unlike the federal government, Florida is required to have a balanced budget every year. That doesn't mean of course the state doesn't have debt. It does.

Until Scott came into office, past governors and legislators authorized borrowing for fixed capital costs such as building college buildings, roads and acquiring environmentally-sensitive lands. Scott started drawing a firm line about this and led the charge to push down the state's debt load. As of last June, it was $24.1 billion or more than $4 billion lower than it was when Scott came into office.

Negron's plan to build a reservoir south of Lake Okeechobee calls for increased borrowing. Currently the bill moving authorizes more than $3 billion in bonding authority to go to various projects, but with an estimated $1.2 billion going to the reservoir project. But that's not what is needed right away in this year's budget.

If the plan is approved it would carry an estimated $100 million price-tag to this year's budget since the bonds would be paid back over 20 years in installments.

So Negron's plan has an immediate cost to the treasury, but it's also important to understand that the full amount of his project will not included in this year's budget.

BOTTOM LINE: Under the current schedule legislators are operating under the House and Senate are expected to pass their budgets during the second week of April.

That week is already truncated because of religious holidays so it is highly unlikely that any negotiations or work can begin until April 17. That means legislators will have about 15 days to get everything worked out in order to get a budget finished on time. That's because Florida law requires the budget to be finished 72 hours before the final vote.

So that's a lot of ground to cover in a short amount of time. Besides the above-mentioned topics there's other issues at play, including pay raises, more money for charter schools etc.

The clock is ticking.

For some Florida Republicans it's time for golf, wine and mild California weather

After a protracted absence, more inside the Tallahassee bubble news.

The really important local race that could impact the whole state....The end of qualifying _ and the lurch into the official campaign season _ has been dominated with talk about the U.S. Senate race featuring incumbent Marco Rubio as well several high profile congressional and state senate races.

Yet there's one very important race that is emerging within the shadows of the Florida Capitol.

Last August State Attorney Willie Meggs announced that he was ending a career stretching back to 1985.

Three challengers have stepped forward to challenge him: Jack Campbell, an assistant state attorney and son of late Leon County Sheriff Larry Campbell, Sean Desmond, a former prosecutor under Meggs who is now in private practice, and former Statewide Prosecutor Pete Williams.

Over the course of his time in office Meggs engaged in cases that had reverberations in state politics. He aggressively investigated in the '90s whether or not legislators were accepting gifts and trips from lobbyists. The Meggs investigation into House Speaker Ray Sansom wound up forcing the Destin Republican to resign from both the speakership and the Florida Legislature.

Meggs was ultimately forced to abandon the case against Sansom, which was tied to his push for an appropriation in the budget that appeared to be benefit a Republican businessman from Sansom's area.

But because of a Meggs subpoena that probe forced into daylight the use of Republican Party of Florida credit cards by top elected officials - a topic ultimately that caused questions for a long line of politicians including Rubio, then-Gov. Charlie Crist as well as RPOF Chairman Jim Greer.

Other times, however, Meggs has resisted calls to investigate powerful people, such as in 2015 amid the outcry over Gov. Rick Scott's decision to oust Florida Department of Law Enforcement Commissioner Gerald Bailey. Meggs refused to investigate Bailey's ouster even there were allegations of Sunshine Law violations and Bailey himself alleged that the Scott administration had potentially tried to interfere with an investigation.

So how will the next state attorney handle these types of cases?

Well, it could very well depend on who wins.

In Tallahassee at least - which is where the largest concentration of votes in the race will come from - the primary focus for the candidates is Leon County's crime rate, which is currently the highest in the state.

During a recent community forum featuring the three candidates, Campbell was blunt, saying that while "you need to have the courage" to take on potential corruption cases it would not be a pressing item for him.

"We got plenty of people getting shot in the street, I’ve got plenty of people getting raped at FSU campus,'' Campbell said.

Desmond echoed that sentiment: "I think it's absolutely a duty to shine a light on everything, but if it's going to impact and take away resources from other things we need to prioritize that."

Williams, who noted he pursued corruption cases when he was statewide prosecutor, maintains that "I will be very aggressive there." But in a followup statement Williams faulted the way that Meggs' office has handled certain cases, including the unsuccessful prosecution of Liberty County Sheriff Nick Finch. (The case was handled by Campbell and Williams contended that it should have been handled by an outside prosecutor instead of someone working for Meggs. Williams also contended Finch was prosecuted because he backed Williams in the 2012 election, an allegation that Campbell said was a "lie.")

Desmond and Campbell are squaring off in the Democratic primary and the winner of that race will run against Williams, the Republican nominee, in the November general election.

"Going to California"....

Gov. RIck Scott has pilloried California over the last couple of years and has visited the state in an effort to woo businesses in that state to move to the Sunshine State.

But apparently it's a good place for some Republicans to go and escape the heat, humidity, algal blooms, mosquitoes and raise money.

The main fundraising committee led by Sen. Joe Negron that is helping Republican state Senate candidates held a two-day fundraiser this week at the famed Pebble Beach golf course (where the daily high was in the mid-60s) located near Carmel and Monterey.

This is a recurring site for fundraisers and it's been held in this site before. But which elected officials decided to attend it? Shh. That's a secret.

A spokeswoman for Negron said he would not discuss fundraising events. But the little birds who flock to Peter Schorsch told him that joining Negron at the California event were Sens. Anitere Flores, Lizbeth Benacquisto, and Rob Bradley.

Also there was Sen. Bill Galvano, who is staying out west this week to hold a separate Napa Valley fundraiser for his own political committee Innovate Florida. The invitation promises a group dinner and private vineyard lunch tasting at the Far Niente Winery about 171 miles north of Pebble Beach.

Galvano, who was re-elected to a new term in office without opposition, said earlier this month that he decided to hold the fundraiser at the winery since he was going out west for the Pebble Beach fundraiser.

Since the end of the 2016 session Galvano has piled up a significant amount of money in his political committee.

State filed fundraising reports for March, April and May - along with paperwork on the Innovate Florida website for June - show that Galvano has collected more than $357,000. Some of the big donors include Associated Industries of Florida and the Florida Medical Association.

So far in the last few months Galvano has steered money from his Innovate Florida account to other political committees - such as the one helping Senate candidates - the campaign accounts of GOP senators as well as payments to his staff, a fundraising consultant and reimbursements that Galvano has claimed. State records show that money from the account has been used to pay for hotels, meals and travel including a nearly $500 tab at The Edison in early April.

Lawsuits, politics, and the House-Senate cold war: Why the real fight over redistricting may be yet to come

There's no doubt when the Florida Legislature kicks off its second special session of the year on Monday that lawmakers have the potential to bring a tsunami of changes to the state's political landscape.

Legislative staff and lawyers drew up a "base map" that has already riled some because of the way it divides Sarasota and Leon counties. U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown responded by going to federal court and asking a judge to block the state from changing her district from one that stretches from Jacksonville to Orlando to one that runs across the northern end of the state to west of Gadsden County. Brown asserts that changes would adversely impact minority voting rights and run afoul of federal law.

If adopted the plan could alter and end the Congressional careers of U.S. Reps. Gwen Graham and Dan Webster while resurrecting Charlie Crist yet again.

But there are a lot of signs that any efforts to make serious changes to this map may be quickly rebuffed by the GOP leaders in charge of the Legislature.

Take for example the rules rolled out for the session.

No lawmaker can propose just altering part of the map - they must introduce a entire new plan.

Additionally, in an effort to deal with any potential charges of partisan influence Senate President Andy Gardiner and House Speaker Steve Crisafulli will require that anyone who offers an amendment to be prepared to identify anyone who had a hand in it as well as "be able to provide a non-partisan and incumbent-neutral justification for the proposed configuration of each district, to explain in detail the results of any functional analysis performed to ensure that the ability of minorities to elect the candidates of their choice is not diminished, and to explain how the proposal satisfies all of the constitutional and statutory criteria applicable to a Congressional redistricting plan."

In other words not an easy task.

"We don’t have the know-how in terms of creating maps, we’re not map experts," said House Democratic Leader Mark Pafford. "And I don’t know if anybody really knows where to begin."

Sen. Jeff Clemons added that he expects most senators to move with caution because of the proscriptive nature of the July ruling from the Florida Supreme Court. It was that ruling, which not only threw out the current congressional map, but included specific suggestions such as reconfiguring Brown's district from a North-South configuration to one that runs East to West.

Sen. Bill Galvano, the top Republican guiding the redistricting efforts in the Senate, contends that the rules were not intended to dissuade anyone from offering up changes.

"We want to make sure we have a full record and that the reasons for amendments or proposals within the map are clear, delineated and on the record,'' Galvano said.

He also said it would be wrong to assume that the "base map" won't be fully discussed and vetted. Galvano added that he expects legislators to need all 12-days that have been set aside for the session.

But the political reality is that many legislators don't have a vested interest in what happens to these congressional districts.

Yes, it's true that the new map could lead to a shrinking of the GOP advantage in the Florida delegation.

But the real showdown in the Legislature isn't during this upcoming session - it's the special session planned for late October

That session _ when lawmakers will be forced to redraw the Senate districts _ will much more wide open. To begin with: While the state Supreme Court gives great insight to how the high court thinks about some of the logic used by the Legislature for congressional districts there's still wiggle room left for the state Senate seats.

"These congressional maps are going to be a good opportunity to learn what's important in relation to drawing the Senate maps,'' Clemons said.

And as had been reported elsewhere putting all 40 seats in play during a presidential year could tip the balance of what happens in the unresolved battle between Sen. Jack Latvala and Sen. Joe Negron for the 2017-18 Senate presidency.

That could prompt the Florida House to use its leverage especially since there are rumblings that there is still a divide between the leaders of the two chambers.

It wasn't by accident that the settlement over the lawsuit against the Senate included wording that absolved the House of any wrongdoing and placed all blame on the Senate GOP leaders. There's probably no way that the House leaders would have accepted the settlement without that crucial acknowledgement.

Of course the "Fair Districts" amendment prevents drawing lines to aid incumbents or people of a particular political party. But that won't stop all 160 legislators from being able to look at the maps themselves and reach their own private conclusions about what the political fallout will mean if certain configurations are adopted.

But this ongoing federal litigation may also come into play prior to that special session.

The lawsuit filed in Pensacola aims to wipe out the amendment as it has been interpreted by the state Supreme Court because it violates free speech rights guaranteed by the U.S. Constitution.  It won't impact this special session, but if a judge issues an injunction by October that blocks state officials from relying on the Fair Districts amendment, it could really shake up that special session. (Worth noting: The lawyer who is working on this case used to be the general counsel for the Florida House.)

Justin Levitt, a Loyola University professor who tracks redistricting cases, says federal judges are usually "skeptical" about free speech claims but he also said he expects the lawsuit to be taken seriously.

And what about Brown's legal argument?

He's not sure how that will proceed. First all, he notes that Brown is asking the court to block a new congressional district that has yet to be adopted. But he adds that while the federal Voting Rights Act does aim to protect the rights of local populations to choose a representative of their choosing there can still be multiple ways to meet the goal. Right now the "base map" keeps Brown's district with a black voting age population of 45 percent - down slightly from the existing 48 percent in the district.

"The Voting Rights Act does not force Florida to choose one over the other,'' Levitt said.

So where does that mean? It means that the next 12 days are just the pre-season to the real contest - and political infighting - that may lay ahead in the fall.

Galvano kicks in big money to help Senate Republicans

We are now six months into the second term of Gov. Rick Scott _ and a nearly as much time into the new reality that greets Republicans in the state.

This Friday will mark an important milestone since Scott, the Republican Party of Florida and Senate Republicans went their separate ways back in January.

On Friday, the RPOF and the affiliated committee associated with the Senate will post their second quarter numbers.

It's this report - followed by the third quarter one in early October - that may give an accurate picture of just how serious the fallout has been over the last few months.

As everyone knows Republican Party activists rejected Leslie Dougher, Scott's hand-picked selection for party chairman. In anticipation of the schism, party leaders loyal to Scott and Senate Republicans transferred large amounts of money into separate fundraising accounts.

Since that time Scott's Let's Get to Work political committee has kept a fairly robust fundraising _ and spending regimen. It was the entity that helped put together Scott's well-attended presidential summit in Orlando and spent money on television ads touting Scott's agenda. But that's money not heading into the coffers of the party which is now headed up by Rep. Blaise Ingoglia.

Meanwhile, this year's legislative session went haywire due to a dispute over health care, which resulted in a special session to pass a new budget and caused an even larger split between Scott and some GOPers.

Scott's fundraising reports show that in cash alone he has raised nearly $2.1 million during the year. This doesn't include the $580,000 that was transferred from party accounts shortly before Ingoglia took over or the more than $250,000 that Disney donated for travel, food and beverages associated with the summit that the governor held at the start of June.

Big donors so far this year to Scott include committees linked to the state's two big business lobbying groups, Associated Industries of Florida and the Florida Chamber of Commerce as well as hedge fund investor and now real estate developer Jeff Vinik.

The Senate campaign efforts, meanwhile, have been in flux because of the still-unsettled battle between Sens. Joe Negron and Jack Latvala for president. In late June, current Senate President Andy Gardiner tapped Sen. Bill Galvano to lead the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Gardiner's move was apparently aimed at telegraphing to potentially nervous donors and backers that the Latvala-Negron contest was not going to derail ongoing efforts to maintain the Republican majority in the Senate.

And Galvano wasted little time in showing his commitment that the committee has money.

Records show that Galvano had his own political committee - Innovate Florida - hand over a $250,000 check to the Senate committee on June 24.

Galvano's donation is apparently aimed at stemming anxiety that donors may have that the tug-of-war between Latvala and Negron would have on the overall effort to help Senate incumbents during an upcoming presidential year.

Latvala earlier this year hired top Florida political fundraiser Meredith O'Rourke in an effort to help his presidential aspirations.

So far this calendar year Latvala's political committee Florida Leadership Committee has hauled in more than $800,000 - including more than $70,000 in the month of June (despite a special session which limited contributions.)

Negron's Treasure Coast Alliance has raised just a tad over $1 million in 2015, with most of that happening in the month of May. The group collected $25,000 during the month of June.

The records for the Treasure Coast Alliance show that so far it has given $5,000 to the Republican Senate committee this year, while Latvala's political committee has not donated anything.

But if you do the math there's at least $4 million during the first half of 2015 that did not go to the RPOF and instead has gone into other accounts that are largely controlled by individual Republicans.

The 2016 elections are still a ways off, but it will be worth watching the run-up to the crucial presidential election to see what kind of resources the state party has available, and conversely how much money and organization the national party and national campaigns will have to expend in the state because of the current set -up.

Who might be the real winner on Election Day? The Florida Legislature

Charlie Crist and Rick Scott will head into their second debate on Wednesday night, hoping to create some momentum in what appears to be an ever so tight race for governor.

What might get lost in the back-and-forth and barbs about fraud, Scott Rothstein, and HCA/Columbia is how each governor is prepared to deal with the political future and reality that will exist no matter which one of them wins.

And that reality is that the Republican-controlled Florida Legislature will have a lot to say on how the next four years go...for both candidates.

The fault lines will be obvious for Crist.

He has already said he's ready to issue an executive order to try to carry out Medicaid expansion if the Legislature remains recalcitrant to the idea as it has the last two years.

This is actually not a new tactic for Crist. He has done this before, on issues like voting, where he has dared the Legislature to sue him on issues he knows enjoy some level of popularity. In the past, state legislators were hesitant to do this (save then-House Speaker Marco Rubio's challenge to a gaming compact with the Seminole Tribe of Florida.)

But you can rest assured that on Medicaid expansion the legal challenge - at least from the House (where one of the chief expansion opponents is Speaker-in-waiting Richard Corcoran) - will come quickly.

Crist has already said several times that he thinks he can work with the Legislature because he will "have a pen." That threat, however, would be rendered useless if Republicans gain a veto-proof majority as some polls are suggesting. You can bet a Legislature chagrined by the prospect of a Crist governorship will not hesitate to challenge Crist at every opportunity.

A Crist governorship could be a bonanza for political and policy reporters who would get to witness an endless game of brinkmanship as it happened at times under Florida's last Democratic governor Lawton Chiles. Just think of the joys of a possible mid-summer session to craft a final budget deal in order to keep state government running. (And a wonderful side debate of who constitutes a "essential" or "non-essential" state employee.)

Except Crist might not be the only one who could be at odds with legislative leaders.

The plain fact is that when talked to privately many GOP legislators continue to have discomfort with Scott four years after he knocked off GOP establishment favorite BIll McCollum and contended on primary night that the Tallahassee insiders would be "crying in their cocktails." Scott has an uneasy alliance with many Republican heavy-weights in the state who have remained quiet as he brought in outsiders - many of them connected to Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal - to run the Republican Party of Florida.

Let's look at the facts of his four years in office. It really wasn't until this year - when he was down in the polls against Crist - that the Legislature pivoted from three years of a respectful, yet standoffish at times relationship, to giving way to help carry out Scott's top priorities.

There's an argument that part of this was due to Scott's realization after months without a lieutenant governor that maybe he needed someone like Carlos Lopez-Cantera, a former state legislator from Miami, to broker deals. But lawmakers, including House Speaker Will Weatherford, made a conscious decision to help Scott out on such issues as a tuition break for Dreamers, or eliminating the tuition law that was passed at the insistence of the Legislature (and signed into law by a reluctant Crist.)

Many of Scott's top priorities from his 2010 election - such as a massive cut in the state's corporate income tax - were politely rejected by the Legislature.

Want a more recent example? Just look at the decision by Scott to have Lopez-Cantera and Chief of Staff Adam Hollingsworth gauge support for a potential new deal with the Seminoles. As reported recently by The Associated Press, the goal of this deal was come up with one that outshined the one that Crist approved and get more money for the state. But the deal was a tough sell especially since it would require yes votes from Democrats in order to pass and was opposed by the state's pari-mutuels and those supporting Las Vegas-styled casinos. The entire effort quickly collapsed.

That's not to say there won't be a lot more common ground between Scott and members of his own party than between them and Crist.

But many of the Tallahassee insiders who Scott predicted would be crying now fully expect the Legislature to be the place where the real action - and real power - will lie during the next four years. That's more likely since Scott's power over legislators will wane as his second term goes on. Even as powerful as he was then-Gov. Jeb Bush got into a lot more rows with the Legislature after his re-election.

And how much currency with Scott bring with him if he barely defeats Crist in the same fashion where he barely defeated Alex Sink in 2010?

Scott's platform this time around has been a lot less bolder than it was in 2010. He has mostly crafted it around ideas like increasing spending on environment and education. Scott has promised to continue to grow the economy, but there's no 7-7-7 plan this time around with a sweeping promise to create 700,000 (or 1.7 million jobs) by cutting billions in taxes and spending.

What ultimately might be more important are the platforms of Corcoran, soon to be House Speaker Rep. Steve Crisafulli, Incoming Senate President Andy Gardiner, Sen. Bill Galvano (and the yet to be crowned Senate president for the 2017-18 time period.) Or it could even be the platforms of the NEXT potential Republican governor - Adam Putnam or Jeff Atwater.

Budget battles 2013: A big behind-the-scenes tug of war

In their final public session together the two men (pictured left) leading the 2013 budget negotiations over education spending gave each other a hearty hug.

Rep. Erik Fresen, R-Miami, even boldly proclaimed that while some items remain outstanding in this year's budget that top Republicans had closed out "99 percent" of the line items before them. (That's Tallahassee-ese for reached agreement and therefore there's no need to talk about it again.)

But in actuality the House and Senate budget negotiators "bumped up" the entire main funding program for public schools also known the Florida Education Finance Program (FEFP). (More Tallahassee-ese - this means they kicked up the final decision to the top budget chairs because they failed to reached a decision.

And one of the main sticking items that has snagged the budget negotiations has gotten very little public discourse in the meetings between Sen. Bill Galvano and Fresen.

It's called "compression."

So what is this?

In theory it's an attempt to compress the per-student funding ranges that exist from one district to another. It's an effort to recognize that property values (which drive property taxes) are not in the same in every county. So the state adds extra money to help smooth out the range.

The way it's handled can be a big, big deal, however.

And that's what's happening this year.

The Senate is insisting on pumping $30.5 million more into compression than the House.

And right now the House isn't budging on this. Said Fresen: "We believe that the FEFP works the way that it is."

Translation: The Senate way of using compression creates a geopolitical rift. That's because pouring extra money into compression in essence dramatically impacts some counties more than others.

Duval County, for example, got a $411 per-student increase in its funding under the initial Senate plan compared to $401 in the House plan. Miami-Dade got a nearly a $417 increase in per-student funding in the initial House budget compared to a $399 per-student jump in the Senate budget.

Miami-Dade schools superintendent Alberto Carvalho said Tuesday that the difference between the House and Senate approaches in compression amounted to a $4 million difference.

It's not entirely easy to do an in-depth county-by-county analysis of the impacts because the House budget also included a $10 million increase in what is known as "sparsity."

This is extra money that goes to smaller districts that is meant to help districts whose buying power is diminished because they can't buy things in bulk like the larger counties. But the bottom line is that the House budget helps out many rural districts. Calhoun County, for example, gets a $512 per-student increase in the House budget versus nearly $445 in the House budget.

One thing worth noting: The House budget increases funding to Pasco County, the home county to House Speaker Will Weatherford by nearly $403 per student, while the Senate plan bumps it up only by $390. The Senate plan increases funding to Okaloosa County - and home to Senate President Don Gaetz - by nearly $448 per student. The House budget would boost Okaloosa's per-student funding by $450.

and how about this twist? The Senate plan is more generous to the home county of House budget chairman Seth McKeel. Polk County would go up $380 per student in the Senate budget compared to $366 for the House budget. But the House budget brings up the per-student funding in Martin County by $450 compared to nearly $443 in the Senate budget put together by Sen. Joe Negron.

These differences aren't as dramatic as the tug-of-war in the last decade over district cost differential (a battle pitting urban South Florida districts versus the rest of the state) but it's clear that so far this skirmish has kept the House and Senate from reaching a resoluton on the education portion of the budget.

And while teacher pay raises and tuition hikes are important so is how much money each legislator brings back to their home county.