The Fine Print

What will Rick Scott version 5.0 look like?

This Friday another era comes to a close for Florida Gov. Rick Scott.

That's when Melissa Sellers will give way to Kim McDougal (both pictured left) as McDougal takes on the sometimes overwhelming job as chief of staff for Scott.

Sellers, who once worked for former Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, is remaining in Tallahassee and opening her own consulting firm.

This much is clear: McDougal and Sellers have different backgrounds, different resumes and different styles. McDougal is a veteran state employee who has spent most of her career focused on education and only recently made a deep dive into the political realm.

The big change for her came in 2014 when she went on leave from her job in the governor's office as an education analyst to help with Scott's re-election campaign. McDougal helped draw up Scott's education platform for his campaign but she was deeply involved with Scott's tightrope walk on how to deal with Common Core.

One of McDougal's jobs that summer was to meet with groups deeply opposed to Common Core, which still remain embedded in the standards that Florida is using in its public schools. McDougal's outreach was successful enough to win an endorsement from one of the groups on the eve of the election. (Which was probably important in a contest decided by just 64,000 votes out of 6 million cast.)

Because of her lengthy experience the expectation is that McDougal will retain her oversight of education matters for Scott. And that probably means no dramatic swings away from current policies or a need to make any big personnel changes. (Scott has been a pretty firm supporter of Education Commissioner Pam Stewart.)

Word is that after the departures of Sellers and General Counsel Tim Cerio other people working in the governor's office - including Deputy Chief of Staff (and former Louisiana resident) Frank Collins will remain in their same roles.

But the real big question for Capitol insiders - and ultimately Floridians - is whether or not Gov. Scott will pivot once again with a new chief of staff in place.

Because one of the most interesting aspects of Scott's five-plus years in office is that he has been willing to alter his style, his interactions and sometimes even his policies based on the input from those closest to him at the time.

There are those who speculate that Sellers will remain a trusted voice and may be doing a warm up routine for a potential 2018 U.S. Senate run for Scott. (Although there is a division of opinion about this as well.)

Another maxim, however, is that "no one gets out of Scott World alive." This means that once someone is removed from the orbit of influence it's impossible to get back in. (Key example: Sellers was Scott's campaign manager during a time when he was focused on the campaign. After the re-election, he installed her in as chief of staff in place of Adam Hollingsworth. Word is that Hollingsworth didn't know this was coming.)

Going all the way back to the start there are clear lines of demarcation for Scott when one person leaves and another steps in.

His first few months in 2011 Scott was combative with the press, with the Legislature and came on strong with a Tea Party influenced agenda that including killing high speed rail between Tampa and Orlando. Lobbyists were barred from meeting with Scott and top governor's office staff. The chief of staff at the time was officially Mike Prendergast, but the view is that the person who had the most influence at the time was his senior adviser Mary Anne Carter. Carter was a complete outsider to Tallahassee and once she left her position she didn't hang around in town.

But Prendergast (and Carter) were followed by Steve MacNamara, a long-time veteran of the Tallahassee scene who has been a university professor, a lobbyist and held stints as the chief of staff for two legislative leaders. It was MacNamara who tried to ease tensions with the press and tried to steer Scott into a more cooperative relationship with the Legislature. The blanket ban on lobbyists was lifted. Suddenly Scott was dressing more informally and holding lengthy sessions with the media in the governor's office. Scott visited newspaper editorial boards and scheduled work days to interact with normal Floridians.

MacNamara, however, departed in the summer of 2012 amid a series of articles detailing his role in contracts and his interactions with agencies. (Later it would be revealed in emails that MacNamara's influence with Scott was severely tested during the 2012 session of the Florida Legislature. Emails showed that MacNamara tried in vain to get the governor to veto a bill creating Florida Polytechnic University while encouraging him to approve a bill that would have given additional tuition raising power to University of Florida and Florida State University.)

He was followed by Hollingsworth, whose main job was to figure out how to rehabilitate Scott in such a way that he would have a shot at getting re-elected even though poll numbers suggested it was near impossible task. Hollingsworth was seen as someone who would quickly urge Scott to deal with potential problems and embarrassments heading into the 2014 elections. Former Lt. Gov. Jennifer Carroll has said it was Hollingsworth who showed up to tell her that the governor wanted to resign following her questioning by law-enforcement authorities investigating a veterans charity engaged in what was deemed to be illegal gambling. (The charity had hired Carroll before she ran with Scott but no charges were ever brought against her.)

Hollingsworth was at the helm during one of Scott's most notable moments during his first term: His complete 180-degree turn on Medicaid expansion and the Affordable Care Act pushed by President Barack Obama. Even today, it remains somewhat remarkable that Scott - who railed against Obamacare and even had run television ads attacking it - would come out publicly in favor of accepting billions in federal aid to expand who was eligible for Medicaid. (Under Sellers - and after his re-election - Scott would reverse course again and side with the Florida House in 2015 in opposition to Medicaid expansion.)

Other pivots, not as dramatic, also occurred such as Scott's decision to back in-state tuition rates for the children of illegal immigrants despite winning election in a 2010 platform that promised support for a crackdown on illegal immigration.

Starting under Hollingsworth (who brought on Sellers to serve as communications director) and continuing ever since she took over, Scott returned to limiting interactions with the press in Tallahassee. He cut down on appearances on conservative radio stations and instead shifted to appearances on national television outlets. And a combative side of Scott returned. He sued the federal government over Medicaid funding and he ordered an investigation of Planned Parenthood clinics last summer. Scott has ratcheted back up his criticisms of Obama. His push to get rid of the Florida Department of Law Enforcement Commissioner led to allegations, apologies and lawsuits.

Yet ever since his re-election and Sellers ascension to chief of staff Scott has had a difficult time with his fellow Republicans in the Legislature and has had trouble winning passage of his priorities. There's lots of finger-pointing as to who is to blame (is it staff? Is it Scott's decision to not raise money for the state party? Is it ideologues in the House?) but the net result is that his two top priorities this year, including a $250 million business incentive pool, were largely ignored by legislators. There are some who say that Scott is isolated from those in the GOP and that has contributed to the problem.

But this month Scott did make a tactical decision to limit his losses. Instead of drawing out the battle he signed this year's state budget and did not engage in the long line of budget vetoes that some lawmakers had been expecting. (Senate budget chairman Tom Lee predicted $500 million in vetoes at one point and Scott did roughly half that.) Talk of possible veto overrides has disappeared and the good thing for Scott is that legislators probably won't return to the Capitol until November.

The governor still has a tremendous amount of time left in his second term in office so there's plenty of time for him to repair relations if he wants to. By tapping McDougal he has found someone who has a good idea about how the capital works - but is less familiar with the political ramifications of every decision that the governor makes.

Scott of course will continue to place a large part of his focus on the state's economy and job creation since it's the message that has helped him in two elections (and remains a top concern for most Floridians.)

But will he take a more pragmatic approach on dealing with the Legislature, dealing with the press, and figuring out what to do in the myriad of issues that confront him on a daily basis? For example: One of the less touched on elements of Sellers time as chief of staff is that Scott brought in Julie Jones to run the Department of Corrections. While problems remains in the state's troubled prison agency, there are signs that Jones has tried to reform the department (although she too lost out this session on getting the Legislature to bless all of here proposed changes.)

So the question is will Scott change direction yet again with McDougal now on board?

Will the next two and a half years be relatively quiet and will the governor and McDougal have a caretaker attitude, or will there be new initiatives, new promises, and new conflicts with the two incoming legislative leaders? The next House speaker - Richard Corcoran - has a lengthy list of contentious items he wants to tackle that could prove challenging for Scott.

Will Scott - who never had been a politician until running for governor - present Floridians with another version of himself? Or will he stick to what he's given voters so far?

Rick Scott's top challenges for his second term

Florida Gov. Rick Scott, considered one of the most vulnerable governors in the nation last year, will this week be sworn into a second term and take his place in state history as just the second GOP governor to earn re-election.

Scott's priorities _ which are likely to be reflected in his inauguration day speech _ won't be much of a surprise since he is expected to repeat what he's been saying for some time now.

Scott will stress jobs, the state's economic recovery, tax cuts, as well as other key parts of Scott's re-election platform such as keeping college tuition costs down.

But key questions remain, including whether or not Scott gets any kind of "honeymoon" after his narrow re-election. And additionally, how will Scott fare with the distractions, scandals and other problems that loom on the horizon?

Any of these could be a test for Scott and his campaign-hardened team led by Chief of Staff Melissa Sellers. After winning by roughly 64,000 votes how much political capital does Scott really have, and more importantly, how will he react if legislators, lobbyists and other in Tallahassee start worrying about the next set of campaigns instead of Scott?

it can be argued of course that as long as the state's economy continues to recover that Scott has met his primary challenge and the one that he ran on.

But there's plenty of challenges Scott will confront in the coming year that could cause him problems and harm his eventual legacy.

Here's just some of them:

WILL REPUBLICANS REMAIN TRUE TO HIM? One of the most immediate challenges is what type of control Scott will retain over the Republican Party of Florida. Scott, with input from people like Sellers and former chief of staff Adam Hollingsworth, helped put people in place at the RPOF whose primary job was focused on getting Scott re-elected.

But for a variety of reasons there are those who aren't entirely trustful. With possible presidential campaigns for either U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and former Gov. Jeb Bush gearing up, those loyal to Rubio and Bush harbor lingering doubts about the party. Look no further than the decision to give the keynote speech in the party fundraising dinner to Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal instead of trying to tap someone like Rubio.

The big test for Scott will come later this month when Leslie Dougher tries to win a new term as chairman of the state party. An early endorsement from Scott for Dougher did not dissuade Blaise Ingolia, a newly-elected state representative, from challenging her. Due to party rules Scott has a great deal sway over the executive committee, but a defeat of his hand-picked candidate would be a bit of a blow as he starts his second term.

ROLLING THE DICE AGAIN: Last year Scott tried to come up with a new compact with The Seminole Tribe of Florida that would allow the tribe to continue to enjoy parts of its ongoing gambling monopoly while giving a sizable boost to state revenues.

State legislative leaders made it clear that the deal would be dead-on-arrival due to the ongoing battle between other gambling interests, including those seeking to bring resort styled casinos to South Florida. Key portions of the existing deal with the tribe will expire this summer. Some legislative leaders, such as Senate President Andy Gardiner, have made it obvious that the end of this deal is not a major concern even if means the state would lose out on several hundred millions a year by allowing the existing deal to end.

Can Scott come up with a deal that keeps the tribe happy, keeps the money flowing into state coffers, yet can also get enough votes in the Florida Legislature?

PRISON DEATHS: Scott late last year agreed to give Julie Jones, the former head of the Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles, a $160,000 a year job (on top of her state pension) to come out of retirement and take over the Department of Corrections.

Jones is stepping into the post at a time when the agency is under fire for inmate deaths and allegations of cover-ups. Right now the Florida Department of Law Enforcement is investigating dozens of inmate deaths and even today a legislative panel is expected to delve into all of the problems at the state's prisons.

Scott, who initially wanted to slash prison spending when he was running in 2010, has tried to keep his distance from the ongoing problems. But the ongoing investigations and problems with some of the privatization efforts pushed under his watch may put the scandal at his doorstep.

LEGISLATURE GOING ITS OWN WAY: Republicans who control the Florida Legislature went out of their way in 2014 to ensure Scott had a successful session as he moved into his re-election campaign. But there's been the feeling that it was an uneasy detente. Scott had a rocky relationship with many legislators when he first came into office because he defeated the GOP establishment candidate Bill McCollum.

Now with nothing else to run for _ right now at least _ how cooperative will legislators be? Gardiner has maintained Scott retains a good deal of sway due to his veto power. And there are reports from legislators that Sellers herself has tried to go out of her way to reach out to them in a friendly manner.

Some of Scott's priorities such as boosting school funding should be an easy sell to lawmakers.

The recent news that the budget surplus increased could also make it easier for Scott to get legislators to going along with additional tax cuts. But $1 billion over the next two years? Permanent elimination of taxes on manufacturing? A property tax constitutional amendment? Some of these may prove to be a bit more challenging once legislators delve into the nitty gritty details.

Other flashpoints could flare up as well: Gardiner himself during a session with reporters said that if there was a push to approve a new deal with the Seminole Tribe that he wanted a full-blown look at the operations of the Department of Lottery. Is that a sign that Lottery Secretary Cynthia O'Connell could find herself in for a difficult confirmation process?

Will legislators also fault Scott for how his Department of Health has handled implementation of last year's medical marijuana law? Some Democrats are already suggesting that the department may be trying to stall implementation because there is an opposition to the law from within the administration.

Put it all together and it could mean that even this year Scott could have a bumpy session.

PUBLIC RECORDS BATTLE: Scott remains locked in a legal battle over how his administration handled public records that is just one of the reminders of how the former CEO turned politician has dealt with the state's open records law. The governor is being sued for allegedly violating the state's public records law.

Some may view the motives of Tallahassee attorney Steven Andrews as suspect. But Andrews has been successful in many of his endeavors, including winning his initial lawsuit over a land dispute with the state as well as his defense of one-time aide Carletha Cole in charges that she illegally taped another aide in the lieutenant governor's office.

Chief Judge Charles Francis will be confronted with deciding whether or not he believes that Scott's office violated the public records law and did not timely produce records records for Andrews. The practical implication of an adverse ruling would be limited since we are talking about a civil lawsuit, but it would still prove to be historic if a judge found fault with the governor.

SCHOOL DAYS: This coming year Florida is expected to transition away from the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test and replace it with a new test intended to measure how students fare on the new "Florida standards" that are largely modeled after Common Core.

Common Core remains a radioactive term with some conservatives. Scott has tried to assuage critics by asking Education Commissioner Pam Stewart to convene a group to look at the standards once again. Meanwhile Stewart is also being asked to "investigate" the use of testing in Florida schools.

The most immediate problem is ensuring that the new test is administered smoothly and that there aren't any problems in evaluating the work of students.

But the continued focus on Common Core means that it will continue to a potential distraction _ and political problem _ for Scott and state legislators.

The other dynamic, however, is Scott will find himself confronting Bush and his allies if the governor tries to dismantle any of the main elements of the Bush's education reforms that were put in while he was in office.

HIGHER EDUCATION: Scott could also create friction with business leaders and legislators over his ideas for higher education as well.

Scott has pushed vigorously to roll back tuition hikes - and take away the power to let universities raise their prices. In his inauguration speech, Scott will expand that focus to suggest there should be limits on graduate tuition hikes as well.

But Scott's austerity pitch will come at a time when some universities like the University of Central Florida and the University of South Florida are coming up with plans to expand their campuses.

While it's true tuition doesn't pay for new buildings, any expansion brings with it higher operating costs, which have to be paid from either tuition or state general revenue.

Schools such as Florida State University led by new president John Thrasher want more money to boost faculty salaries in an effort to move FSU into the ranks of the nation's leading public universities.

While legislators backed Scott's tuition plan during a campaign year, it may be harder for them to ignore the requests from university presidents _ and local leaders _ who want their schools to grow.

THE NEXT ELECTION: Scott has been fairly good at avoiding getting too involved in presidential politics _ or even other significant state and local races.

But he might find that difficult as both the 2016 presidential election and the 2018 state elections begin to heat up.

It's widely believed that Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam will seek the governor's office in 2018. Putnam and Scott don't have a close relationship, partly due to the fact that Scott has several times threatened to veto Putnam's top legislative priorities.

There are signs - like in last year's final Cabinet meeting - where Putnam has shown that he now has no problem challenging Scott. That could grow as 2018 moves closer and Putnam decides to show even more of his independence.

Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater may run for governor as well and may also be eager to distance himself from Scott.

Presidential politics could also prove to be a complicating factor.

When Scott ran for a second term, he relied more on Texas Gov. Rick Perry and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie than someone like Bush. (Bush probably spent as much time or more campaigning for Putnam's re-election as he did for Scott.)

If Christie jumped into the 2016 presidential race against Bush, would Scott be able to stay on the sidelines after all the work _ and money _ Christie delivered to him?

What would Scott do if the Legislature decided to change Florida's primary date in an effort to help Jeb? Would he go along, or veto the bill?

And if Rubio were to bypass re-election and run for president what would Scott himself do?

Scott considered running for U.S. Senate in 2010 but opted instead to run for governor. When asked recently about his future, Scott said he ran for governor and has no plans to run for anything else.

Would that change, however, if it were an open seat? Or would Scott back someone like Attorney General Pam Bondi _ who he does have a good relationship with _ over other Republicans who also might be interested in seeking to replace Rubio?

The Rick Scott machine grinds on with a growing sense of confidence

Is it all over but the shoutin'?

There are moments that it certainly looks that way - at least when observing what the Republican Party of Florida and the re-election campaign of Gov. Rick Scott are saying and doing lately.

While some polls have the race essentially tied with two months to go, the signals from the Scott campaign and their "out of state mercenaries" is that they have turned the tide and they are proceeding down the checklist of things they have to come up with to win the race over Democratic rival Charlie Crist.

The two-week bus tour launched last week was a great example of that.

The bus tour, where Scott is touting a $1 billion tax cut package over the next years, appears aimed squarely at trying to rally the Republican base of voters. Scott's new talking points for the events include linking Crist to President Barack Obama time and time and time again.

Crist and Obama are alike says Scott because they think "money grows on trees."

Now normally one would assume the need to nail down the base in the early going of a re-election campaign.

But the Scott campaign has spent the last few months spending tens of millions grinding down Crist in a series of negative ads. If the belief is that the negative ads have made Crist increasingly unacceptable to independent voters, then the idea of turning back to the base makes sense.

The recent poll done by the University of Florida in concert with a handful of media organizations would seem to bear that out. It maintained that among those Floridians surveyed that just 37 percent now trust Crist.

It's already been well documented that the Democratic turnout was not very impressive during the Aug. 26th primary. During a session held at the Florida Association of Professional Lobbyists conference last week, the executive director of the Florida Democratic Party acknowledged that the low turnout numbers in Broward were especially worrisome.

So if independents stay home, Democrats remain lukewarm, then the path to victory is with the Republican base of voters.

Of course the Scott campaign has been calling and trying to motivate voters for some time now. But the bus tour gave them an opportunity to reinforce that with visits to GOP strongholds such as southwest Florida. While some in the base may have their problems with Scott because of Common Core and All Aboard Florida, they are trying to calm those fears.

There are other things that also bolster the idea of a growing confidence in Scott world.

Their press strategy, for one, has been on a need to know basis.

As in, the Scott campaign will cooperate with the press on things that enhance its narrative. Want a key example? After putting out press release after press release about their ads, they have been less forthcoming about other ads.

One hard-hitting ad entitled "Swindled" start running right after the primary ended and features a person who says he was swindled by Scott Rothstein, the Ponzi schemer and one time associate of Crist. Christopher Heath with WFTV asked questions about the ad but got no answers.

The Scott campaign in 2010 avoided editorial boards completely. This time around they have employed a selective strategy. While they have spent time at places like Florida Today and the Tampa Tribune, they have not scheduled any time with some of the major papers who might be viewed as more adversarial i.e. The Tampa Bay Times. In other words, it would appear they plan to make visits to the places where they view an endorsement as a possibility.

Another key element that could help build confidence: While the Crist-Scott race initially drew a lot of national attention it doesn't appear that the race has become as nationalized - and the scores of earned media that would accompany it - as one thought it could become.

So far, it appears that many parts of the national media are spending time watching the handful of U.S. Senate races that could tip the balance to the GOP.

Juston Johnson, the executive director of the Republican Party of Florida, who also appeared at the FAPL event made it clear that the Scott campaign is looking at the finish line confidently. (Johnson repeated the 'out of state mercenaries' line that has become a motivational spark for the Scott team.)

Johnson told the group that it was "remarkable" that Scott has gone from trailing Crist to matching, or in the case of the UF poll, leading him. But beyond that, Johnson said he doubted that any debates between Scott and Crist would change the outcome of the election pointing out some would occur after people had already begun. Nor did he expect "some scandalous story come out that will drastically change this race."

Johnson talked about how the party and campaign had spent a year putting together its field operations and digital efforts and now it was a matter of just getting them to "do their thing."

It's easy to understand Johnson's point of view that voters in Florida know an awful lot already about both Scott and Crist and there may not much more than change the narrative of the race.

For their part Crist's team is also putting in place their strategy.

The Democrats and Crist held back on spending a lot of money in advance of the primary. A peek inside the Crist headquarters in St. Petersburg shows an organization that is setting up its own field operations, relying on some of the same strategies and analytics that aided Obama's successful runs in Florida the last two presidential cycles.

Scott Arceneaux, the executive director of the Democrats who like other Democratic operatives is spending quite a bit of time in central Florida with the Crist team, bluntly predicted that the race between Crist and Scott would be only one or two points and that the race wouldn't be decided until Wednesday.

The Scott campaign early on decided that Crist was the one opponent that they wanted in this election. They have been up on television all summer. They are clearly sticking to their game plan so far. They have had some gaffes and bumps so far but the large cash advantage has apparently enabled them to withstand those blows.

The last big onslaught from Crist and company is coming. The question is whether it will be too little too late, or whether it will derail the Scott machine's march onward.

Does Rick Scott still have a Common Core problem?

At the start of his re-election year Florida Gov. Rick Scott got up in front of Republican stalwarts gathered in Orlando and told them he had heard their concerns about Common Core.

Months later it appears that it still remains an issue that could impact Scott's re-election chances.

The Common Core State Standards set benchmarks for reading, writing and math but they have come under fire from conservative activists who see them as a federal intrusion into education. The standards are also opposed to by those who believe states already rely too much on high-stakes testing to measure learning and teacher performance. Florida initially adopted the standards four years ago, but phased in their implementation.

Scott at that meeting in January said he understood there was a "little bit of passion" about the school standards and vowed that Florida was striking out on its own path.

"These are Florida standards, they are not some national standards,” Scott said. “This is our state. We’re not going to have the federal government telling us how to do our education system."

Scott's remarks had come a few months after he had essentially ordered the state to pull out of the national consortium developing a test based on Common Core and after he had required the Florida Department of Education to hold public hearings on the state's standards. (DOE essentially did what Scott asked even though it can argued that Scott has limited legal authority over them.)

Shortly after Scott made his speech state education officials tweaked the existing standards (and which were drawn from Common Core) and made nearly 100 changes including maintaining an emphasis on cursive writing.

Then the GOP-controlled Legislature push through a series of measures also aimed at dousing the backlash: Legislators removed references to Common Core adopted a year earlier. They passed laws that placed controls on school districts use of biometric information and gave parents greater say over textbook adoption.

This was apparently enough for Scott to proclaim that Florida is now "out" of Common Core.

But as Florida moves into a school year where the "Florida standards" are now being implemented in all grades _ and the state develops a new test based on these standards _ Scott's actions have not been enough to end the furor.

While some education officials insist that the anger and outcry has begun to dissipate, the Scott campaign quietly dispatched an emissary this summer to Republican groups to explain what Florida was doing. Kim McDougal, who had been the governor's top education analyst in the Office of Planning and Budget, took a leave of absence (and is still on leave) to develop Scott's education platform for his re-election, but one of her other jobs was to explain to GOPers what Scott has done to address Common Core. She visited with groups across the state, including the Flagler County Republican Club.

Some of those who met with McDougal weren't all that convinced with one of the attendees saying "Sadly, our meetings were spent talking past each other with absolutely no progress." 

It's not all that surprising that Common Core is still an issue. After the name changes and new laws, other Republican-controlled states have retreated fully from Common Core.  One of the big battlegrounds right now is in Louisiana where Gov. Bobby Jindal is entrenched in a fight to end the use of Common Core in that state. (It is worth noting here that several people in Scott's orbit right now have ties to Jindal, including campaign manager Melissa Sellers.) Conservative commentator Glenn Beck recently hosted an event railing against the standards.

Common Core has also been a flash point in other Florida elections, be it at the school board level or in other elections like in this state senate primary in Southwest Florida. "“If we don’t like Common Core, we need to vote in a new governor and legislators,” the Crestview News Bulletin quoted Okaloosa County School Board incumbent Melissa Thrush. “I think what is most frustrating for our teachers is we keep changing the rules.”

Last week former Gov. Jeb Bush _ a Republican who has not retreated from Common Core amid the backlash _ tried his best to help Scott. According to John O'Connor during a campaign stop with Scott in South Florida Bush agreed with Scott that Florida was out of Common Core. But then Bush acknowledged that the new standards aren't "substantially different" from the previous ones.

And that's the political dilemma that confronts Scott.

Chief Democratic rival Charlie Crist is very much in favor of Common Core and has faulted Scott for his shifts on the issue. He stressed his support again last week at the start of his three-day bus tour although he wasn't clear about whether or not he supports a longer phase-in for the standards as school superintendents had asked for but did not get from the Legislature.

"I support Common Core,'' Crist said. "As you know (U.S. Education) Secretary Arne Duncan and Gov. Jeb Bush both support Common Core. This represents, I think, an issue where we can put politics aside and do what's right for our kids and have appropriate testing and not overtesting."

Scott could try to exploit this and fire up his base by declaring his staunch opposition to Common Core (after supporting the standards previously.) But if Scott came out forcefully against the standards he would be alienating Bush, who still remains a popular Republican in Florida and could help Scott this fall. (Scott would also cause a host of problems for school districts and the state education bureaucracy already moving ahead with the new standards.)

Scott has the backing of the GOP establishment now, but embarassing Bush (as he still mulls a presidential run) could cost support that Scott needs in his tight re-election battle with Crist. (There is a subplot here of those Republicans who think that those running the Scott campaign are outsiders who don't care about the future of party in Florida or of other Republicans but that's for another day to dissect.)

Yet those activists dedicated to Common Core could also cause problems if they sit at home in November and refuse to work to help get Scott re-elected.

In the next few weeks Scott is expected to roll out his education platform for his next four years in office.

This will show whether Scott World bellieves they have successfully come up with a political strategy to deal with the Common Core backlash or whether Scott has decided that he must move in a new direction in order to win back voters who may prove critical for re-election.