The Fine Print

Florida turned upside down: 5 takeaways about the 2018 election

  With just under 100 days left before Florida voters decide the crucial 2018 election, President Donald Trump held a boisterous rally on Tuesday night with 10,000 people in Tampa where he enthusiastically urged his supporters to back U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis for governor in the upcoming Republican primary.

Trump's backing of DeSantis is already being seen as a fatal blow to Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam, who for most of the last year appeared to rolling smoothly in his quest to succeed Florida Gov. Rick Scott.

1 big takeaway....The Trump primary

The rally in Tampa and the downward drag on Putnam emphatically shows the outsized importance of all things Trump in the Aug. 28 primary.

In a year when toxic algal blooms are fouling the state's waters ,the shooting at Parkland prompted a reluctant Florida Legislature to act on guns, and Stand Your Ground laws are once again being scrutinized- the defining issue in the primary remains the president.

On the GOP side, it's more than just the holding a rally and tweeting out his support. Candidates up and down the ballot in the Sunshine State are arguing with each other on whether someone is a true believer - or whether someone had once been opposed to Trump before his election in 2016. Case in point: Sen. Greg Steube unearthing old tweets by Rep. Julio Gonzalez to paint him as a "Never Trumper." 

Democrats, meanwhile, are skirmishing over who is the most-anti-Trumper, and how strong their opposition is. Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum likes to point out how he's calling for Trump's impeachment, while candidate Jeff Greene has called Trump a "traitor." Gwen Graham has called Trump a "bully' and "embarrassment." But this fervor isn't contained to just the governor's race. It's playing out in numerous congressional contests as well.

This election cycle is now worlds away from ones where issues such as class size, education, health care and job growth dominated.

In some ways, it began in 2010 when Gov. Rick Scott used criticism of President Barack Obama and fears of rising national debts as a key part of his campaign. But Scott also highlighted immigration and his plans tor turning around the state's economy as other parts of his campaign message.

Just before Trump took stage, the Putnam campaign recognized this new reality that has turned the state's politics upside down.

In a statement Putnam praised Trump, yet at the same time bemoaned that DeSantis "has released zero plans on any Florida issue since announcing his campaign." 

 2. End of traditional campaigns?

The potential demise of Putnam also shows that the tried-and-true methods used by so many candidates in the past are becoming less and less important.

In 2010, Scott's victory showed that an onslaught of television ads could bury a rival who had built up a campaign organization. But if DeSantis wins it shows that a presidential endorsement - and a bevy of appearances on Fox News - can blunt money, staffing and organizational advantages. (It also shows the diminished impact of local media in a world where everything is seen through a DC-centric, not Florida-centric lens.)

Florida's primary usually has been decided by a small subset of voters. Only 22 percent of voters turned out in the 2010 primary. Normally this would mean that a campaign needed to chase absentee voters and engage in a robust campaign of phone calls and personal contacts in order to get voters to participate. That's why a superior organization was considered crucial.

But another key question emerging this cycle is the role of television ads.

Several campaign consultants have said that TV remains a huge factor in Florida, especially among older voters. There's a possibility, however, that the winning candidate from both the GOP and Democratic side will not have spent nearly as much money on television ads as their rivals. As viewing habits - and consumption of information changes among young voters- it's worth noting that this could be a turning point.

3. Recycling the playbook

There is one campaign that is sticking to some tried-and-true strategies and that's the one Scott is mounting against incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson.

Scott has sold himself has a successful businessman, but that career was overshadowed by scandal. Scott was forced out as CEO of Columbia/HCA shortly after a federal investigation became public. The end result is that Scott's former company paid a then-record fine of $1.7 billion to settle allegations of fraud.

So in three straight elections Scott campaign team (which includes many of the same consultants each time) has gone on the offensive: It's the other candidate who has ethics problems. They took the state plane, they helped a crook defraud investors, etc. The early press releases and even some of the ads in this year's campaign echo this. They are all designed to force Nelson to defend his actions and behavior. It can be argued that some of the actions aren't of equal weight, but that's not the point.

Two other elements at work: Scott in 2010 and 2014 assailed Obama and his policies and tried to link them to the Democratic nominee. Bashing the federal government was part of the governor's talking points and script. Trump's ascension has made that trickier,  but now it's shots at Democrats like Nancy Pelosi and complaints in general about how DC is dysfunctional (no matter that Republicans are in control.)

Last item: Ahead of 2014, Scott made sure to use his power as governor to sidestep or try to mitigate potential controversies bubbling up, especially those happening in key Republican strongholds. It appears to be happening again this year as well.

4. Which voters will show up?

When you talk to those who waged campaigns against Scott, aside from the finger-pointing over went wrong, the real frustration is that he squeezed by each time.

Scott won by nearly 62,000 votes (about 1.2 percent) in 2010 and more than 64,00 votes (1 percent) four years later.

Overall turnout in both elections hovered around 50 percent and Democrats seemed unable to generate the kind of turnout they needed in Democratic strongholds to overtake Scott. (Turnout in the last three presidential contests _ two of which were won by Obama _ have been at 70 percent or above.)

This, however, was before the age of Trump.

Now of course there predictions _ and attempts to debunk _ the notion of a "blue wave" that will translate displeasure with Trump into success at the ballot box. Various Democrats have engaged in back-and-forth over what will make the difference this year: Is it a candidate that appeals to young voters, women voters, or progressives? 

But here's another factor for the Republicans _ and the DeSantis camp especially _ to consider: Can they replicate Trump's numbers?

Trump's 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton in Florida was significant because Clinton actually got more votes than Obama did the two times he carried the state. She came in within 6,000 votes of Trump in places like Duval County.

The difference, however, is the margins Trump rolled up in Republican dominated or Republican-leaning counties, fueled in part by an "impressive" surge of voting that took place on Election Day. (See: Election Daze: Voting Modes and Voter Preferences in the 2016 Election - Authors - Smith, McKee, Hood).

And that translated into substantial margins not previously seen. In Lee County, for example, Trump got 44,000 more votes than Mitt Romney did just four years earlier. Will these voters in Florida who propelled Trump victory two years ago transport their support for the president into this year's midterm?

5. The Puerto Rican Diaspora

Last Saturday San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulín Cruz endorsed Nelson in his battle against Scott and while doing so repeated criticisms against Trump and how his administration responded in the aftermath of last year's Hurricane Maria.

It was the latest chapter in an ongoing push by both Republicans and Democrats to appeal to tens of thousands of Puerto Ricans who flocked to Florida after the devastating storm.

Both Nelson and Scott have traveled to the island territory. Scott for his part offered assistance to Puerto Rican evacuees, even going so far as using his emergency powers to sidestep the Legislature in order to pay for it. Candidates for governor have also focused on Puerto Rico. He stared airing a Spanish-language television and digital ad on Wednesday that stressed he had helped Puerto Ricans.

Former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine chartered a plane and delivered supplies shortly after Maria struck. Gillum traveled to San Juan last weekend.

There are open questions, however, about the impact that evacuees will play in Florida's election.

The Washington Post pointed out a few days ago that so far there is little indication that the Puerto Ricans who left the island are registering to vote in the state.

There's still time for that to change as the election moves closer. But as Orlando legislator Amy Mercado noted to the Post: "Their main focus obviously is going to be survival...The last thing they are thinking about is politics."

Mystery appeals and campaign finance dilemmas

Time for another round of inside the bubble news....

Who's ad is it anyway?....Republican frontrunner for governor Adam Putnam hit the airwaves this month with a biographical ad that is meant to highlight his agricultural roots and his belief in faith and family.

But campaign records available so far show that the ad isn't being bankrolled by Putnam's campaign.

Instead Florida Grown, a political committee organized and controlled by the agriculture commissioner, has already paid nearly $1 million to Smart Media Group to purchase television time for the ad. That has been backed by FCC filings on file that show that the ad is being paid for by Florida Grown.

Ads on television have carried a disclaimer saying it was a paid political advertisement from Florida Grown.

Yet on Sunday, the Putnam campaign put out a fundraising pitch that says it's their ad and asked people to give them money to keep it on the air. There's a link to the ad on the Putnam for governor website. That version _ which is a full minute in length and not 30 seconds like the version shown on television _ has a disclaimer saying it was paid by the Adam Putnam for governor campaign.

So why is this important?

Well, the first is that Florida Grown can accept unlimited amounts from anyone, including corporate donors, while Putnam's actual campaign can only accept donations worth up to $3,000. So that means that it's harder to raise money for the actual campaign versus the political committee. And that's why there would be a desire to pay for television ads through the committee since those dollars are much easier to replace.

But while Florida law regarding political committees has loosened up in recent years there remain some restrictions on how those committees can spend money.

Florida does not have the same kind of federal restrictions that are supposed to limit contact and coordination between campaigns and other groups. Campaigns are allowed to work in tandem with committees regarding ads.

But the state's Division of Elections put out a very interesting opinion in 2016 that could have ramifications for the Putnam campaign.

Well-known attorney Ron Meyer, who does work on behalf of entities aligned with the Florida Education Association, asked that year about what kind of ads a political committee could undertake - including running television ads that refer or depict "a clearly identified candidate for office" that do not "expressly advocate" for that candidate but have no other reasonable interpretation "than an appeal to vote for or against a specific candidate."

In that opinion, the division stated that there are a type of ads that fall outside the normal definition of what constitutes a regulated ad. These are ads that are run outside a period of 30 days before a primary and 60 days before a general election. These ads are also coordinated with a campaign but do not expressly advocate someone's election. But here's the important part: Since these ads don't fall under the normal definition then a committee that does such ad could be contributing to a campaign.

If this opinion were applied to the Florida Grown ad, then it could be a problem especially since $1 million is way beyond the $3,000 contribution limit.

Under Florida law, campaigns that accept contributions above the legal limit can be susceptible to fines twice the amount of the contribution.

It is important to stress that this is an interpretation of existing law by the Division of Elections. But this speaks to the nature of Florida's complicated campaign finance laws and how they function - and just as important - what is the actual purpose of the law.

MYSTERY APPEAL...There was quite a bit of drama last week as it relates to Florida's automatic ban on civil rights for felons.

A federal appeals court late Wednesday agreed to place a stay on U.S. District Judge Mark Walker's ruling that maintained that Florida's current system for deciding who should have their rights restored is unconstitutional. Florida currently requires former prisoners to wait anywhere from five to seven years after they leave prison before they can ask to have their rights restored. Walker sided with former prisoners who had their applications denied. And as part of that ruling, Walker ordered the state to overhaul its rules by April 26.

Fearful that the appeals court would not act in time Gov. Rick Scott scheduled an emergency meeting of the state's clemency board (which consists of the governor and the three other elected Cabinet officials) with a potential new set of rules. The meeting was scrapped, however, when the court came down with its last-minute decision.

So here's the mystery then: Who gave the order for the clemency board to file the appeal and request the stay in the first place?

Here's the reason for that question: The lawsuit wasn't just against Scott or Attorney General Pam Bondi but it was a lawsuit against the clemency board itself. Florida's Sunshine Law does in general apply to meetings of the governor and Cabinet. (Clemency records are confidential, but there has not been an assertion that the board can meet in private.)

The state's solicitor general _ who works for Bondi _ filed the appeal and the stay request even though there was never a meeting of the clemency board to discuss or vote on what to do in the wake of the initial ruling.

And the state officials who sit on the clemency board have not given a lot of information on how this happened.

When first asked, Whitney Ray, a spokesman for Bondi said that "given the gravity of this issue, a decision to appeal was never in question."

Ok, but again - the solicitor general is an attorney who was working on behalf of the clemency board. Usually attorneys must confer with their clients before proceeding with major action such an an appeal.

During a public availability, Bondi herself refused to answer a question on the decision to appeal. She said that "we're not going to talk about pending litigation."

The press offices for both Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis and Putnam also did not yield much information on the decision to appeal. Putnam's spokeswoman, Jennifer Meale, said that their office was "notified of the decision to appeal." Patronis's office said the CFO was "kept informed" by communication between the solicitor general and the general counsel for Patronis.

So in both instances neither official said they made an affirmative decision to appeal.

The only office to finally bring some light to the situation was Scott's office. John Tupps, a spokesman for Scott, said that the general counsel for the governor conferred with the solicitor general about the need for appeal.

And the governor's office maintains that such a move was legal even though it was done behind closed doors. They point to a 1978 case that is still cited in the Sunshine Manual that said it was ok for an attorney to confer with members of a board in reaching a decision to appeal.

But even if Scott and Bondi agreed to an appeal that's still just two out of four clemency board members.

Worth pointing out as well: Scott and the Cabinet were sued in 2015 for sidestepping the Sunshine Law because of the way then Florida Department of Law Enforcement Commissioner Gerald Bailey was dismissed since he worked for all four officials not just the governor. In the end the case was settled, but only after the state agreed to pay attorney fees in the case and that senior staff and aides participate in mandatory Sunshine Law training.

Barbara Petersen of the First Amendment Foundation said that whole situation "doesn't pass the sniff test" and questions if the other members of the board have yielded all legal decisions to Scott's office.

One Democratic candidate for governor opposed to Florida's current system of handing rights restoration is also asking questions.

Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum last week filed a public records request that asked for any records related to the decision to appeal and file other legal motions in the case. In his letter seeking the records Gillum states "it is unclear the legality of whether the Solicitor General, at the discretion of the Governor, can decide to file a motion, or a series of motions, on behalf of all the Cabinet officers. Floridians deserve to know how their Cabinet officers agreed to a legal decision on behalf of the state of Florida." 

5 biggest questions of the 2018 session

Here we are again: Following a year that included a civil war among Republicans that sparked a special session and ended with a sexual misconduct scandal that scuttled the political career of Sen. Jack Latvala the GOP-controlled Legislature returns to Tallahassee for what could be another bumpy ride.

In no particular order, here are the five biggest questions of the 2018 session.

1. Is there more turmoil to come? The decision by Latvala to resign last month following a devastating investigative report into his conduct capped off a tumultuous year, especially in the Senate. Three senators ultimately resigned in an off-election year following news accounts of their behavior.

The House was not immune from drama either as one Democratic House member resigned amid an investigation into her residency. Other GOP House members quit as well, citing the top-down management style of House Speaker Richard Corcoran.

The question remains: Are there more secrets to spill out into the open from the confines of the members-only Governors Club and the other places in Tallahassee that normally remain hidden from public view?

There is a constant buzz of rumors and innuendo and whispered allegations that this legislator is next, or that other relationships will be exposed to scrutiny. The Florida Department of Law Enforcement continues to investigate Latvala over an allegation uncovered by the Senate investigation that suggests he may offered legislative action in exchange for sexual favors. (For his part, Latvala continues to deny wrongdoing.)

Then there's the fear that Latvala - who continues to sit on a large amount of cash into political accounts he controls - will proceed to use that money to go after those who came after him. There is an expectation that the entire scandal will eventually lead to lawsuits where even more secrets could be exposed.

This constant fear of drama feeds into an uneasy atmosphere that now hangs over Tallahassee because those that run this town don't like their secrets getting out.

 2. Will political ambitions interfere with a smooth session? In many election years, there is a tendency for sessions to run quickly and smoothly as legislators head to the exits in order to raise money for looming campaigns.

This year may not be the norm.

Gov. Rick Scott, of course, is expected to run for U.S. Senate. Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam is running for governor. Corcoran is expected to run for governor. Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis is running for a full four-year term after Scott appointed him to the post last year. There are legislators seeking to replace Putnam and Attorney General Pam Bondi.

The question is how whether these colliding campaigns will spill into the legislative arena and derail things.

One important thing to remember - Corcoran can't raise money during session, but his power could wane once the 2018 session is wrapped up and a budget is on Scott's desk. That means some special interests may stop giving him money once everything is finished.

So any type of blow-up, anything that could prevent legislators from passing a budget could theoretically help him. Here's the thought: Session is earlier this year, so in reality legislators could pass a budget in early May and it would not cause any disruption.

Under this theory, legislators adjourn for several weeks - meaning the cash could resume flowing into campaign accounts.

That's not saying it would happen, but there are several issues, including whether or not to use a rise in local property taxes to pay for schools, that could easily trigger a standoff and at the time help those seeking higher office.

 3. Does Gov. Rick Scott have an easier time getting the Legislature to help him this year?

During his entire time in office the multi-millionaire businessman has had a topsy turvy with members of his own party. The governor even today likes to remind people that when he ran for governor in 2010 no one in the GOP establishment endorsed him. During an interview just last week, Scott noted that Corcoran was expected to run this year and added - "It's a totally different race from mine. Everyone had endorsed my opponent."

Last year amid a struggle over Scott's push for economic incentives and money for Visit Florida the governor went after House Republicans. He aired television ads and he visited legislators districts where he called them out by name for failing to vote with him.

After reaching a deal with Corcoran last summer that resulted in a final budget deal, his fellow Republicans have been much respectful. A recent video posted on the House website was effusive with praise about Scott's handling of Hurricane Irma.

Still Scott's agenda isn't an easy sell. His budget recommendations are viewed as too optimistic and don't reflect the state's tightening financial situation. His push to rely on a rise in local property values to help pay for a hike in school funding has already been declared dead on arrival by Corcoran. Business interests were disappointed that Scott's tax cut package was aimed directly at consumers.

In 2014, then House Speaker Will Weatherford helped muscle through legislation that helped Scott in his re-election year. But that is an eternity ago. Since then Scott has stopped raising money for the Republican Party of Florida and there has been a string of blow-ups. Do legislators remember? Or do they decide in the end they need to help the governor?

4. Will Senate President Joe Negron finally win approval for his higher education overhaul?

A lot of time and energy will be spent this session on special interest battles, but probably some of the most substantive policy issues will be the education measures being pursued by legislative leaders.

Last year Negron pursued a substantive higher education overhaul that contained a major boost in college scholarships for the state's highest performing students. Scott vetoed it, citing concerns from college presidents and others who didn't like some of the restrictions on institutions that used to be called community colleges.

The proposals are back this year (although right now in separate bills) and the Senate has expanded the financial aid portion even further. The legislation dealing with the state college system continues to draw flak from college presidents. (Reminder - the state university system and state college system operate totally separate. They are funded differently and controlled by different entities. They do not work in tandem. The two have had back and forth tug-of-war for years and calls to have a cohesive system has been sidestepped and ignored.)

Some House Republicans have already begun to raise questions about the higher education proposals. One possible scenario is that the House trades approval for Senate approval of House priorities, including a new voucher proposal pushed by Corcoran that would allow students who are bullied to transfer to a private school. The bigger question is whether Scott - who has had his own clashes with universities - will ultimately go along with the revamped proposal.

5. Will local governments lose even more control this year?

For years, the GOP-controlled Legislature has railed against Washington D.C. and the mandates placed on states by the federal government. Yet at the same time there has been fight after fight in the halls of the state Capitol over whether to block local governments from all sorts of regulations ranging from the use of plastic bags to lawn fertilizer.

Corcoran last year argued that the Legislature is the closest to the people and that's why it has a legitimate role in providing oversight over local affairs and blocking local governments from taking certain actions.

This session will likely be consumed with a series of skirmishes in this same arena, starting with the House bill to go after  "sanctuary cities" that do not cooperate with federal authorities on immigration enforcement. (It's been noted that right now no cities in Florida fit this description.) The House is expected to pass the bill later week.

There are bills filed dealing with everything from local tree ordinances to regulation of short-term rentals to more oversight for local tourism councils and a ban on the use of tax money for pro stadiums.

Get ready to rumble.

Dispatches from the Capitol: "If we are going to win this year, it's because of Sen. Jack Latvala."

It's no secret that Sen. Jack Latvala - the Pinellas County Republican who is now the Senate budget chief - has had up and down relationships with a lot of people in the political process, including the current governor.

But Latvala (shown here campaigning for Gov. Rick Scott in 2014) is now becoming more and more aligned with Scott in his ongoing feud with House Republicans over the fate of the state's tourism marketing program and the state's economic development agency.

Latvala has already sounded off that he does not agree with the House approach - which is to completely eliminate Enterprise Florida and place tight restrictions on Visit Florida. This ongoing disagreement threatens to prevent the GOP-controlled Legislature from passing a new state budget.

But it was still a tad surprising to see Scott - caught on camera last week - showering Latvala with effusive praise. (Assuming this was doing during Scott's visit to the Florida Restaurant and Lodging Association.)

"If we're going to win this year, it's because of Sen Jack Latvala,'' Scott said. "He's going to stand with us all the way through. And he’s going to take a lot of arrows for doing it. I’m going to tell you he’s got broad shoulders and he can do it."

Contrast that from just one day earlier where during an event held at a Tallahassee manufacturing plant Scott castigated Republican State. Rep. Halsey Beshears, a Monticello Republican, while praising two Tallahassee Democrats for voting against the House bills that target Enterprise Florida and Visit Florida. It's been part of a Scott strategy in recent weeks to call-out House Republican members by name in front of local television cameras.

Regardless of the philosophical debate underlying business incentives and aiding corporations and whether it helps create jobs - a debate that unites House Republicans with progressive Democrats - the real story playing out amid this feud is that Florida's Republican structure is deeply divided and there's no signs that's going to change anytime soon.

Other governors have had their differences with members of their own party - i.e. then-Gov. Jeb Bush in a fierce struggle with Senate Republicans over medical malpractice laws - but Bush wasn't running political ads that went after legislators responsible for helping him carry out his agenda. Nor was Bush refusing to raise money to help the Republican Party of Florida. (Note - Scott stopped raising money for the RPOF ahead of the 2016 elections - leaving that task primarily to House Republicans including House Speaker Richard Corcoran.)

But that's where we are now.

And this rift is already having reverberations as we head into the 2018 elections still seemingly so far away.

Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam - who has his own share of dust-ups with Scott - was by Scott's side this week as Scott held a public rally in the Capitol where he again criticized the House approach. Putnam is of course seen as a likely candidate for governor, but the speculation has been that Scott wants someone else to follow him into the governor's mansion. (As in someone with a business background...) Despite all that, Putnam was with Scott this week.

So now we have two potential candidates for governor - Latvala and Putnam - sticking up for the governor, while another potential candidate for governor - Corcoran - is not.

Of course one could say, what does it matter?

Scott will likely run for U.S. Senate and has been known to avoid getting involved in primaries. Yeah, but...Scott has a good relationship with President Donald Trump. Scott is also now in a leadership position with the Republican Governors Association, the entity responsible for helping Republicans across the nation. Scott polls well among GOP voters in the state and if he chose to get involved in a primary it could have an impact.

Corcoran in the end could decide not to run for governor, or he could mount a fierce campaign from the right where he goes after Putnam and others as being part of the corrupt process he says now controls Tallahassee.

But before all that happens - we will have to see who - in the words of Gov. Scott will "win" the debate over Enterprise Florida and Visit Florida.

That may say a lot about who has a winning political future.

How much power does Gov. Rick Scott really have?

(UPDATE: Florida's voter registration deadline was extended to Oct 18.)

In a federal courtroom on Wednesday, a judge will hear arguments on whether or not the state's voter registration deadline should be extended beyond 5 p.m. due to Hurricane Matthew.

U.S. District Judge Mark Walker has already pushed back the Oct. 11 deadline by a day in order to hold the hearing after the Florida Democratic Party filed a lawsuit on Sunday evening. In his ruling granting the one-day extension, Walker said that the deadline amounts to a "severe burden on the right to vote" and he suggested it was unconstitutional.

The party filed the lawsuit after Gov. Rick Scott turned down requests including an informal suggestion from the campaign of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton  to extend the deadline. Scott, who is supporting GOP nominee Donald Trump, said the reason he was doing it was that people had already had enough time to register.

It's not clear how hard the governor's office plans to fight to keep the deadline. A spokeswoman for Scott put out a statement on Tuesday that said that the state will accept the judge's decision _ and that the governor would even seek to change the law during the upcoming 2017 session.

But one question that is floating out there - and one that may not be totally resolved after the court hearing - is just how much power does Florida's governor have during emergencies?

Walker in his ruling suggested - but not definitely - that Scott lacked the authority to extend the voting deadline.

In his order Walker wrote that while Secretary of State Ken Detzner was an appropriate person for Democrats to sue since he was the chief election official, he didn't think that applied to the governor. He noted that while Scott has "general emergency powers" those powers may not include any power to alter the voting registration deadline. Those powers generally allow the governor to suspend laws if there is a declared emergency.

Walker pointed out, however, that there is a carve out in existing Florida law that allows the governor to delay or suspend an election due to an emergency. The judge then notes that section of law says nothing about changing the voter registration deadline.

That led Walker to conclude it is "wholly irrational in this instance for Florida to refuse the extend the voter registration deadline when the state already allows the governor to suspend or move the election date."

This was an interesting point brought up by Walker since the lawsuit did not even delve into Scott's emergency power. Instead the lawsuit filed by the party suggested that Scott's decision to keep the deadline amid the disruption, power outages and evacuations that occurred due to Matthew amounted to a violation of federal law and disenfranchisement of voters. Scott himself did not cite a lack of authority as a reason for his decision.

Now the elections emergency law cited by Walker has been used before.

Former Gov. Jeb Bush used it to alter the election in 10 counties following Hurricane Charley in 2004. This move allowed county officials to delay the start of early voting.

It's important to note here that Bush's order came on Aug. 19 - or less than 2 weeks before that year's primary - so it's not completely comparable. But another part of his order gave the secretary of state's office the power to "modify, suspend, amend" any deadlines in the entire election code that could not be complied with due to the emergency caused by the hurricane.

But the truth is that several Florida governors have used their emergency powers in broad ways _ and in most instances they have never been challenged.

And while I'm sure it could be argued that the actions of past governors do not create any legal precedence, this shows that Scott could have had a justification to take action if he wanted.

Former Gov. Charlie Crist, for example, used his emergency powers in 2008 to extend early voting hours (a move that privately infuriated some Republicans, but who opted against suing him). Crist even in the final days of his governorship ordered that the state begin to offer extended jobless benefits to Floridians that had been approved by Congress and signed into law by President Barack Obama.

Scott himself back in February 2015 _ without the justification of an emergency _ issued an executive order to suspend an 11th grade standardized test that was about to be given to high school juniors that spring. Scott contended that he could do under his "supreme executive power" but then noted that the Legislature would have a chance to repeal the law that authorized the test later that year.

Were these moves legal? That's hard to tell since the actions were never challenged in court.

But what it shows is that there have been instances in the past where Florida's most recent governors have taken action. And not once did they suggest that they lacked the authority to do so.

The elephant in the room for Florida Republicans

As the Republican National Convention kicks off this coming week the official word is that everything is a-o.k. with Florida Republicans.

Despite that fact that many of the state's 99 Florida delegates supported other candidates ahead of the primaries none of them have been wishing out loud that someone else besides Donald Trump was the presumptive GOP nominee. No talk of blocking delegates from attending or lawsuits.

"The Florida delegation is totally united,'' said Republican Party of Florida Chairman Blaise Ingoglia on CNN on Saturday.

Yet while the delegation will certainly follow the rules and give all 99 Florida votes to Trump a lot of questions remain about the state of the party and the fact that top Republicans in the state are divided into factions.

There's a whole long list of things to consider (including the fact that former Gov. Jeb Bush and his staunchest supporters aren't on board with Trump) but let's just start with the strange situation with the Republican primary for U.S. Senate after incumbent U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio went back on his oft-repeated promise to not to run for election.

Most of the other GOP candidates jumped out once Rubio changed his mind. But Manatee County homebuilder and political newcomer Carlos Beruff didn't. And that was just fine with GOP governor Rick Scott, who came close to endorsing Beruff over Rubio (seen here campaigning for Scott's re-election.) (Also worth noting: Rubio has not been endorsed by Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi, who has a speaking slot at the convention.)

Yet at the same time - Scott's own lieutenant governor Carlos Lopez-Cantera is now actively campaigning for his good friend Rubio and against Beruff.

Beruff this past week went on Florida airwaves with an ad that smacked Rubio, saying he wasn't backing Trump and suggested it had to do with Rubio' s stance on immigration. Lopez-Cantera was the first to fire back by citing Beruff's decision to back Charlie Crist in the 2010 U.S. Senate race (even after Crist had switched from being a Republican to being an independent.) 

"He’s a Crist insider who values political opportunity over Florida’s conservative principles,'' Lopez-Cantera said in a statement distributed by the Rubio campaign.

Then a Super PAC supporting Rubio said it was going up with its own ad to go after Beruff.

Adding to this mix was the suggestion - although knocked down by the Beruff campaign - that maybe, just maybe Beruff was staying in the race against Rubio not to win - but to build his name recognition in a possible bid for governor in 2018.

Scott, talking to one of his former top aides, even chimed in and said that "my experience with Carlos is, whatever he puts his mind to, he’s going to be successful. Whether that’s trying to make sure his customers get what they want, or anything else, Carlos will be successful.”

For those not completely immersed in inside Capitol Circle talk - that's a shot at the presumed campaign of Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam. The icy relationship between Putnam and Scott goes back years. You can bet there are people whispering to Putnam that he needs to be prepared so that he isn't "McCollumed" - a reference to the fact that then Attorney General Bill McCullom was considered a shoo-in for the GOP nomination for governor in 2010 until Scott jumped in at the last minute and self-funded his campaign.

Then there's the whole money thing for all Republicans.

Despite having no announced plans beyond 2018, Scott keeps raising money for his Let's Get to Work political committee and not the Republican Party of Florida as part of the continued fallout after Ingoglia won the chairmanship back in early 2015 over Scott's own handpicked candidate.

Scott has raised more than $1.8 million so far this year for his committee of which he transferred $95,000 back in January to the party. Yes there's a persistent rumor that Scott may run for U.S. Senate, but it's important to point out under campaign finance laws that Scott can't directly use this money - which is from corporate donations - for a federal race.

Now it's true that the Republican National Committee has put in money into the state that has been used to hire ground staff, but what message does it send to donors and others that the state's leading Republican isn't helping out his own party that much?

Lots of political insiders in Tallahassee keep grumbling about the situation and grumbling whether or not Scott's recalcitrance is diverting resources that could at least pay for certain types of party expenses. And remember the Beruff situation? That could increase pressure on Putnam to raise more money for his political committee. (Putnam did give the state party a $25,000 check in June.)

Of course none of this is totally surprising given the awkward relationship Scott has had since he knocked off McCollum even though the veteran politician had support from many establishment Republicans. In the background are GOP consultants with competing agendas and competing candidates ahead of the 2018 elections.

Maybe it's not a big problem.

After all Florida's Democrats continue to have their own history of problems come election time and the rise-and-fall of presidential campaigns has usually been more dependent on the the actual campaigns and not the state party. (There's still bad blood between state operatives and the campaign of 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney as state people contended Romney's folks ignored their advice ahead of a narrow loss to President Barack Obama.)

But after close to 20 years of GOP domination it's still out of character to see so many fault lines and shifting loyalties.

Add it all up and it could matter in a swing state where only a few thousand  - or few hundred ballots - can make a difference in the leader of the free world.

For some Florida Republicans it's time for golf, wine and mild California weather

After a protracted absence, more inside the Tallahassee bubble news.

The really important local race that could impact the whole state....The end of qualifying _ and the lurch into the official campaign season _ has been dominated with talk about the U.S. Senate race featuring incumbent Marco Rubio as well several high profile congressional and state senate races.

Yet there's one very important race that is emerging within the shadows of the Florida Capitol.

Last August State Attorney Willie Meggs announced that he was ending a career stretching back to 1985.

Three challengers have stepped forward to challenge him: Jack Campbell, an assistant state attorney and son of late Leon County Sheriff Larry Campbell, Sean Desmond, a former prosecutor under Meggs who is now in private practice, and former Statewide Prosecutor Pete Williams.

Over the course of his time in office Meggs engaged in cases that had reverberations in state politics. He aggressively investigated in the '90s whether or not legislators were accepting gifts and trips from lobbyists. The Meggs investigation into House Speaker Ray Sansom wound up forcing the Destin Republican to resign from both the speakership and the Florida Legislature.

Meggs was ultimately forced to abandon the case against Sansom, which was tied to his push for an appropriation in the budget that appeared to be benefit a Republican businessman from Sansom's area.

But because of a Meggs subpoena that probe forced into daylight the use of Republican Party of Florida credit cards by top elected officials - a topic ultimately that caused questions for a long line of politicians including Rubio, then-Gov. Charlie Crist as well as RPOF Chairman Jim Greer.

Other times, however, Meggs has resisted calls to investigate powerful people, such as in 2015 amid the outcry over Gov. Rick Scott's decision to oust Florida Department of Law Enforcement Commissioner Gerald Bailey. Meggs refused to investigate Bailey's ouster even there were allegations of Sunshine Law violations and Bailey himself alleged that the Scott administration had potentially tried to interfere with an investigation.

So how will the next state attorney handle these types of cases?

Well, it could very well depend on who wins.

In Tallahassee at least - which is where the largest concentration of votes in the race will come from - the primary focus for the candidates is Leon County's crime rate, which is currently the highest in the state.

During a recent community forum featuring the three candidates, Campbell was blunt, saying that while "you need to have the courage" to take on potential corruption cases it would not be a pressing item for him.

"We got plenty of people getting shot in the street, I’ve got plenty of people getting raped at FSU campus,'' Campbell said.

Desmond echoed that sentiment: "I think it's absolutely a duty to shine a light on everything, but if it's going to impact and take away resources from other things we need to prioritize that."

Williams, who noted he pursued corruption cases when he was statewide prosecutor, maintains that "I will be very aggressive there." But in a followup statement Williams faulted the way that Meggs' office has handled certain cases, including the unsuccessful prosecution of Liberty County Sheriff Nick Finch. (The case was handled by Campbell and Williams contended that it should have been handled by an outside prosecutor instead of someone working for Meggs. Williams also contended Finch was prosecuted because he backed Williams in the 2012 election, an allegation that Campbell said was a "lie.")

Desmond and Campbell are squaring off in the Democratic primary and the winner of that race will run against Williams, the Republican nominee, in the November general election.

"Going to California"....

Gov. RIck Scott has pilloried California over the last couple of years and has visited the state in an effort to woo businesses in that state to move to the Sunshine State.

But apparently it's a good place for some Republicans to go and escape the heat, humidity, algal blooms, mosquitoes and raise money.

The main fundraising committee led by Sen. Joe Negron that is helping Republican state Senate candidates held a two-day fundraiser this week at the famed Pebble Beach golf course (where the daily high was in the mid-60s) located near Carmel and Monterey.

This is a recurring site for fundraisers and it's been held in this site before. But which elected officials decided to attend it? Shh. That's a secret.

A spokeswoman for Negron said he would not discuss fundraising events. But the little birds who flock to Peter Schorsch told him that joining Negron at the California event were Sens. Anitere Flores, Lizbeth Benacquisto, and Rob Bradley.

Also there was Sen. Bill Galvano, who is staying out west this week to hold a separate Napa Valley fundraiser for his own political committee Innovate Florida. The invitation promises a group dinner and private vineyard lunch tasting at the Far Niente Winery about 171 miles north of Pebble Beach.

Galvano, who was re-elected to a new term in office without opposition, said earlier this month that he decided to hold the fundraiser at the winery since he was going out west for the Pebble Beach fundraiser.

Since the end of the 2016 session Galvano has piled up a significant amount of money in his political committee.

State filed fundraising reports for March, April and May - along with paperwork on the Innovate Florida website for June - show that Galvano has collected more than $357,000. Some of the big donors include Associated Industries of Florida and the Florida Medical Association.

So far in the last few months Galvano has steered money from his Innovate Florida account to other political committees - such as the one helping Senate candidates - the campaign accounts of GOP senators as well as payments to his staff, a fundraising consultant and reimbursements that Galvano has claimed. State records show that money from the account has been used to pay for hotels, meals and travel including a nearly $500 tab at The Edison in early April.

What will Rick Scott version 5.0 look like?

This Friday another era comes to a close for Florida Gov. Rick Scott.

That's when Melissa Sellers will give way to Kim McDougal (both pictured left) as McDougal takes on the sometimes overwhelming job as chief of staff for Scott.

Sellers, who once worked for former Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, is remaining in Tallahassee and opening her own consulting firm.

This much is clear: McDougal and Sellers have different backgrounds, different resumes and different styles. McDougal is a veteran state employee who has spent most of her career focused on education and only recently made a deep dive into the political realm.

The big change for her came in 2014 when she went on leave from her job in the governor's office as an education analyst to help with Scott's re-election campaign. McDougal helped draw up Scott's education platform for his campaign but she was deeply involved with Scott's tightrope walk on how to deal with Common Core.

One of McDougal's jobs that summer was to meet with groups deeply opposed to Common Core, which still remain embedded in the standards that Florida is using in its public schools. McDougal's outreach was successful enough to win an endorsement from one of the groups on the eve of the election. (Which was probably important in a contest decided by just 64,000 votes out of 6 million cast.)

Because of her lengthy experience the expectation is that McDougal will retain her oversight of education matters for Scott. And that probably means no dramatic swings away from current policies or a need to make any big personnel changes. (Scott has been a pretty firm supporter of Education Commissioner Pam Stewart.)

Word is that after the departures of Sellers and General Counsel Tim Cerio other people working in the governor's office - including Deputy Chief of Staff (and former Louisiana resident) Frank Collins will remain in their same roles.

But the real big question for Capitol insiders - and ultimately Floridians - is whether or not Gov. Scott will pivot once again with a new chief of staff in place.

Because one of the most interesting aspects of Scott's five-plus years in office is that he has been willing to alter his style, his interactions and sometimes even his policies based on the input from those closest to him at the time.

There are those who speculate that Sellers will remain a trusted voice and may be doing a warm up routine for a potential 2018 U.S. Senate run for Scott. (Although there is a division of opinion about this as well.)

Another maxim, however, is that "no one gets out of Scott World alive." This means that once someone is removed from the orbit of influence it's impossible to get back in. (Key example: Sellers was Scott's campaign manager during a time when he was focused on the campaign. After the re-election, he installed her in as chief of staff in place of Adam Hollingsworth. Word is that Hollingsworth didn't know this was coming.)

Going all the way back to the start there are clear lines of demarcation for Scott when one person leaves and another steps in.

His first few months in 2011 Scott was combative with the press, with the Legislature and came on strong with a Tea Party influenced agenda that including killing high speed rail between Tampa and Orlando. Lobbyists were barred from meeting with Scott and top governor's office staff. The chief of staff at the time was officially Mike Prendergast, but the view is that the person who had the most influence at the time was his senior adviser Mary Anne Carter. Carter was a complete outsider to Tallahassee and once she left her position she didn't hang around in town.

But Prendergast (and Carter) were followed by Steve MacNamara, a long-time veteran of the Tallahassee scene who has been a university professor, a lobbyist and held stints as the chief of staff for two legislative leaders. It was MacNamara who tried to ease tensions with the press and tried to steer Scott into a more cooperative relationship with the Legislature. The blanket ban on lobbyists was lifted. Suddenly Scott was dressing more informally and holding lengthy sessions with the media in the governor's office. Scott visited newspaper editorial boards and scheduled work days to interact with normal Floridians.

MacNamara, however, departed in the summer of 2012 amid a series of articles detailing his role in contracts and his interactions with agencies. (Later it would be revealed in emails that MacNamara's influence with Scott was severely tested during the 2012 session of the Florida Legislature. Emails showed that MacNamara tried in vain to get the governor to veto a bill creating Florida Polytechnic University while encouraging him to approve a bill that would have given additional tuition raising power to University of Florida and Florida State University.)

He was followed by Hollingsworth, whose main job was to figure out how to rehabilitate Scott in such a way that he would have a shot at getting re-elected even though poll numbers suggested it was near impossible task. Hollingsworth was seen as someone who would quickly urge Scott to deal with potential problems and embarrassments heading into the 2014 elections. Former Lt. Gov. Jennifer Carroll has said it was Hollingsworth who showed up to tell her that the governor wanted to resign following her questioning by law-enforcement authorities investigating a veterans charity engaged in what was deemed to be illegal gambling. (The charity had hired Carroll before she ran with Scott but no charges were ever brought against her.)

Hollingsworth was at the helm during one of Scott's most notable moments during his first term: His complete 180-degree turn on Medicaid expansion and the Affordable Care Act pushed by President Barack Obama. Even today, it remains somewhat remarkable that Scott - who railed against Obamacare and even had run television ads attacking it - would come out publicly in favor of accepting billions in federal aid to expand who was eligible for Medicaid. (Under Sellers - and after his re-election - Scott would reverse course again and side with the Florida House in 2015 in opposition to Medicaid expansion.)

Other pivots, not as dramatic, also occurred such as Scott's decision to back in-state tuition rates for the children of illegal immigrants despite winning election in a 2010 platform that promised support for a crackdown on illegal immigration.

Starting under Hollingsworth (who brought on Sellers to serve as communications director) and continuing ever since she took over, Scott returned to limiting interactions with the press in Tallahassee. He cut down on appearances on conservative radio stations and instead shifted to appearances on national television outlets. And a combative side of Scott returned. He sued the federal government over Medicaid funding and he ordered an investigation of Planned Parenthood clinics last summer. Scott has ratcheted back up his criticisms of Obama. His push to get rid of the Florida Department of Law Enforcement Commissioner led to allegations, apologies and lawsuits.

Yet ever since his re-election and Sellers ascension to chief of staff Scott has had a difficult time with his fellow Republicans in the Legislature and has had trouble winning passage of his priorities. There's lots of finger-pointing as to who is to blame (is it staff? Is it Scott's decision to not raise money for the state party? Is it ideologues in the House?) but the net result is that his two top priorities this year, including a $250 million business incentive pool, were largely ignored by legislators. There are some who say that Scott is isolated from those in the GOP and that has contributed to the problem.

But this month Scott did make a tactical decision to limit his losses. Instead of drawing out the battle he signed this year's state budget and did not engage in the long line of budget vetoes that some lawmakers had been expecting. (Senate budget chairman Tom Lee predicted $500 million in vetoes at one point and Scott did roughly half that.) Talk of possible veto overrides has disappeared and the good thing for Scott is that legislators probably won't return to the Capitol until November.

The governor still has a tremendous amount of time left in his second term in office so there's plenty of time for him to repair relations if he wants to. By tapping McDougal he has found someone who has a good idea about how the capital works - but is less familiar with the political ramifications of every decision that the governor makes.

Scott of course will continue to place a large part of his focus on the state's economy and job creation since it's the message that has helped him in two elections (and remains a top concern for most Floridians.)

But will he take a more pragmatic approach on dealing with the Legislature, dealing with the press, and figuring out what to do in the myriad of issues that confront him on a daily basis? For example: One of the less touched on elements of Sellers time as chief of staff is that Scott brought in Julie Jones to run the Department of Corrections. While problems remains in the state's troubled prison agency, there are signs that Jones has tried to reform the department (although she too lost out this session on getting the Legislature to bless all of here proposed changes.)

So the question is will Scott change direction yet again with McDougal now on board?

Will the next two and a half years be relatively quiet and will the governor and McDougal have a caretaker attitude, or will there be new initiatives, new promises, and new conflicts with the two incoming legislative leaders? The next House speaker - Richard Corcoran - has a lengthy list of contentious items he wants to tackle that could prove challenging for Scott.

Will Scott - who never had been a politician until running for governor - present Floridians with another version of himself? Or will he stick to what he's given voters so far?

5 biggest questions for the 2016 session

After one of the most tumultuous years since Republicans assumed control of the Florida Legislature - the GOP-controlled House and Senate return this week for a 60-day jaunt that many legislative leaders hope/predict is relatively calm and uneventful heading into what could be a highly unpredictable election year.

Most insiders of course can recount the score: The budget meltdown, the abrupt ending of the 2015 regular session, two failed redistricting special sessions, a budget finally passed with days to go before a state government shutdown.

Legislators are returning early this year as part of an experiment to move up the date so that lawmakers can be back home in time to spend spring break with their families. (It would take a change in the constitution to move up session start for every year.)

Here then are the 5 biggest questions of session:

Can everybody just get along?

The expectation is that the resolution of the long-simmering Senate presidency battle (which was won by Sen. Joe Negron) and the Senate's tabling of Medicaid expansion should make it easier to reach a consensus on the state budget and other issues. Throw in the fact that it's an election year and there is an anticipation that there will be a willingness to compromise. But that may not capture the complicated situation at hand.

First all, there's Gov. Rick Scott who enters the session with a longer wish list than normal. And it's not just the $1 billion tax cut package and Enterprise Florida reforms that the governor wants (although that appears to be a big ask). Scott put together a $3 billion gambling deal with the Seminoles and he's also pursuing his health care transparency package.

Last year Scott showed that there is a price to pay (through his substantial budget vetoes) if you don't go his way. So you can be assured that remains on the minds of many legislators.

But let's not forget there are some Scott agency heads whose fates remained unresolved, or that there remains a split in fundraising/political activities that has resulted in the Senate and Scott raising money separately from the party. You can also throw in the whole unsettled situation in the Senate due to a redrawn state Senate map that could theoretically force some senators to moderate their positions.

Lastly, a key question is how supporters of former Gov. Jeb Bush and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio in the Legislature will view Scott's decision to nudge ever so closely to endorsing GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump.

Say what you will about the sausage-making in the state Capitol a lot of it still depends on connections and relationships and many of the items cited could play a role. And if Scott is viewed as isolated from members of his party then there is even less willingness to work with him.

Is it possible to ever reach an agreement on gambling?

Well, you certainly wouldn't want to bet on it given the competing forces (including dog and horse tracks from outside of South Florida) who don't like some of the fine print on the deal that Scott reached with the Seminole Tribe. In the past few years attempts to pass major gambling bills have floundered amid the Scylla and Charybdis that exists in the Legislature on this issue.

But Scott remains a wild card on this. The governor, who began his business career as a deal maker, put together a proposed compact with tribal officials that was guaranteed to get big headlines and promised a big payout.

Throughout his time as governor Scott has remained, for lack of a better word, agnostic about gambling in the state. In other words, the governor isn't going to back the tribe, the dog tracks, the anti-gambling factions including Disney, Las Vegas casino owner Sheldon Adelson, or even Trump at all cost.

It would not be surprising if Scott's approach is basically: 'Hey, I helped put together a deal. Tribe, it's up to you and your lobbyists to get it passed.' And more importantly, is Scott amenable to changes as long as the overarching achievement - the money in the state's bank account is unchanged? Signs point to yes.

Tribal officials - who are still locked in a court battle over whether they can keep blackjack tables in their casinos under the 2010 deal that expired last summer - may have to decide if they need to cobble together something that makes everyone happy. Or decide if they could take their chances and just wait until next year.

Scott has been very deferential so far in his public pronouncements and has made it clear that it's up to the Legislature to work something out. If it doesn't happen the governor can maintain it wasn't his fault.

How many gun bills will reach their target?

Apart from the budget and gambling battles, you can expect a fair amount of attention in the media to be focused on the gun bills already moving through the Legislature. These include bills allowing open carry of firearms, guns on college campuses and changes to the Stand Your Ground law.

The decision by legislative leaders to already allow these bills to move through legislative committees even before the start of the 60-day session is a sign that there is considerable support for them.

And President Barack Obama's decision to pursue actions on guns on the federal level will likely add momentum as GOP legislators will be able to contrast their actions at the state level with what's happening with D.C.

Plus long-time National Rifle Association lobbyist Marion Hammer has made it abundantly clear that she and her supporters have no plans to modify their stances on these bills. Hammer has told everyone that she will be keep pushing the legislation for as long as it takes.

Put that together and it would reasonable to assume that most, if not all, of the bills stand a good chance of reaching Scott's desk later this year. Yes, there is opposition to the various bills, including Florida State University President John Thrasher and university police chiefs on campus carry to some of Florida's sheriff's on open carry.

But the gun bills give Republicans a chance to do something that will fire up their own political base heading into what could be a chaotic election season.

There is a caveat with all of this though and that's the unresolved question of whether the new Senate districts (which appear to tilt toward Democrats) will persuade some senators that contentious issues of this sort need to be put on hold until 2017.

How will the growing power of Joe Negron and Richard Corcoran affect the process?

The general theory about the Legislature is that the influence/power of the outgoing legislative leaders begins to ebb during their second session while the clout of their successors begins to grow.

There have been exceptions to that rule over the years i.e. Dean Cannon as House speaker and John McKay as Senate president.

There will be those who will make snide comments that Corcoran, a former top aide to Rubio and current House budget chief, already has considerable sway in the House. Yes there are many signs that he does wield a good deal of influence, but expect it to get even larger.

Among some insiders who follow the process the operating theory right now is that House Speaker Steve Crisafulli and Senate President Andy Gardiner will get to watch their top priorities pass in the opening days of the session. (For Crisafulli, a potential Agriculture Commissioner candidate, that's a comprehensive water bill, while for Gardiner it's bills to aid families with children who have developmental disabilities.)

After that moment of comity, the rest of the session will be conducted in Corcoran and Negron's shadow. That could affect plenty of important bills, whether it's Negron's support of a measure to legalize/regulate fantasy sports to the judiciary reforms that Corcoran has already promised to push through.

Other considerations: Negron, an attorney, has clashed in the past with the insurance industry so that may make it hard for them to push through changes opposed by trial attorneys such as the revamp of assignment of benefits. Corcoran - along with his successor Rep. Jose Oliva - have expressed skepticism about for targeted business incentives like those championed by Scott or for items such as film incentives or subsidies to sports teams and operations.

Will this really be a do-nothing year for the Florida Legislature?

Talk to most lobbyists and they will quietly concur: This may be a really tough year to get anything substantial passed.

The reasons are many, starting with the epic battles of last year (see No. 1) to what appears to be an unpredictable election year (see Trump, Donald.)

There is a feeling right now that any attempt to move major changes/reforms in key areas will be difficult. It's not just the gambling deal with the tribe. This could flow to everything else including the types of tax cuts, health care changes pursued by the House to some of the environmental bills being pursued to alimony reform and major education bills. If Republican leaders are intent on putting aside any public disagreements then the easiest way may be to just deep-six many of the more contentious proposals.

As of this past weekend, 1,644 bills have been filed which does appear to put the Legislature on pace to meet last year's totals so maybe legislators themselves remain somewhat optimistic that they can things done. There is always a natural tendency for the Legislature to try to fix/improve/change things and have something to campaign about in the fall.

But the most substantial year for legislation in recent years was 2011 when you had a new governor and a supermajority in the Legislature following the 2010 wave year for the GOP. That track record suggests that 2016 will be relatively quiet.

Keep your phones in your desk and your doors open? A peek inside Jesse's world

It's been a while, but it's time for another bit of Inside the Tally bubble news...

A PEEK INSIDE JESSE'S WORLD....Jesse Panuccio, the Harvard trained lawyer in charge of the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, has managed during his nearly three year stint to weather several storms including the highly troubled roll-out of the state's unemployment assistance online system.

Panuccio has been consistent at echoing Gov. Rick Scott's talking points about the economy as evidenced by his routine appearances at Cabinet meetings where he talks about the jobs picture in Florida. (This is something that was not done prior to Scott's arrival.)

But as a member of the Scott administration Panuccio is considered one of those who might be the most endangered.

Like other Scott appointees Panuccio needs a confirmation vote by the Florida Senate in 2016 in order to hang onto his job. Some of his most recent appearances before legislative committees have not gone smoothly, which has helped ramp up speculation about his future.

Lately however Panuccio has tried to change the agenda beyond criticism of the unemployment assistance system.

Instead he has maintained that the state needs to get aggressive cracking down on fraudsters who are using fake identities in order to lay claim to jobless benefits. He has written op-eds about the growing "crisis" of fraud and has asked state legislators for $3.5 million for a whole array of programs in his own agency to go after those seeking to rip off the unemployment benefits.

"What we are seeing in our estimation is an astounding amount of fraudulent claim activity,'' Panuccio testified to a Senate committee in early October.

When he's mentioned the fraud problem - which DEO estimates is as high as 12 percent of all claims - Panuccio has talked about criminal rings and organized conspiracies to obtain personal identifying information.

But apparently Panuccio's agency is also worried that its own employees could be thieves as well.

In March of this year DEO adopted a sweeping security policy entitled "Protocols for Protecting Personal Information." Download Policy1 11

The policy was basically enacted a couple of weeks before it was revealed that a Miami woman had been able to access personal information through the Department of Children and Families database.

The policy says that employees who work in the Bureau of Reemployment Assistance Program can't have a cellphone at their desk. They can have a phone in their desk or purse but they can't answer it if it's ringing. Other parts of the policy state employees can't use non-network printers or insert their phones into their work computers.

Apparently some DEO workers thought this new policy went too far, and was not family-friendly. One anonymous worker tried writing a letter this summer to Gov. Scott to complain.

"I can understand the no use of state phones for personal reason, however I have small children and family with heath issues. if I can't have my state phone I should be allowed to have my cell phone on my desk so that I can see if they call and I need to step outside and call them back,'' wrote the employee who said they worked in Tallahassee.

"I have been employed with the state for many years and have NEVER been treated this way," the letter goes on. "Moral(e) is pretty much GONE! If they don't trust us, they need to get rid of us."

The letter was kicked back to DEO's Inspector General who took no action because of the IG supports the department's enacted security policies.

But mandates and edicts at DEO are nothing new.

Shortly after Panuccio took in 2013 over he enacted a dress code for the department. Download Policy1 09

His dress code outlawed everything from jeans, flip-flops, even "athletic type jerseys" with the names of sports teams. The policy made it clear that the dress code was to be followed even on Fridays.

"Employees should always look neat and professional, in clean, pressed clothing,'' states the policy.

Recently another DEO employee contended that there was another policy in place at one of DEO's offices.

A report from Scott's own chief inspector general cited an employee who complained that all employees were required to keep their office doors open and that she was reprimanded because she violated the policy. For the record, a spokeswoman for the agency, Erin Gillespie maintained she's unaware of any open door policy.

BUDGET TRANSPARENCY MOVES AHEAD....During the spring House Speaker Steve Crisafulli and Rep. Richard Corcoran put in place a formal process that required House members to answer questions about projects they wanted funded in the state budget.

That process is getting even more involved heading into 2016. Last week the House even had a webinar/training session to explain how it would work.

A memo from Corcoran explains that while the "technical process" has changed that the content of information is the same as before. "However, the timeliness of your submission will be a factor in making budget decisions since it my expectation that all budget issues need to be thoroughly vetted," Corcoran wrote.

One of the more interesting factors about the new system is that House members who want to make a budget request must do it online with a computer owned by the House. The online links used will automatically assign a number to the member who makes the request.

The big question then for the House will be this: Once the requests are received will all of them be placed online so members of the public can see them?

If that's done then the Legislature will have fully reinstated the "Community Budget Issue Request System" even if it has a different name. That system was eliminated during the Great Recession when legislators were cutting budgets, but it was never reinstated once the economy began to turn.

RECORDS SHOW THAT PARTY AFFILIATION WAS STRESSED IN APPOINTMENT OF ELECTIONS OFFICIAL...Late last summer a reporter with The Apalachicola Times asked for documents regarding a decision made by Gov. Scott to appoint Franklin County Commissioner Pinki Jackel as the new elections supervisor in the small coastal county. Scott had made the decision to appoint Jackel even though the outgoing supervisor Ida Cooper Elliott (who died from cancer earlier this month) had recommended that the governor tap her assistant supervisor Heather Riley for the job.

"I fully support and hope that Heather would be considered for appointment,'' wrote Elliott. "I have the utmost confidence in her and her abilities to run this office."

The governor's office waited two months before they handed over those records.

And what did they show?

That Jackel - and some of those boosting her appointment - stressed her Republican ties as one of the reasons Scott should pick her for the job of overseeing elections.

Jackel's own application for the job stated: "When elected in 2008, I became the only Republican in Franklin County since reconstruction. I was re-elected in 2012 with 67% of the vote. I remain the only elected Republican and have been a registered Republican since 2004 when I moved back to Florida. I have never changed my party affiliation."

Jackel put down the chairman of the Franklin County Republican Party as one of her references for the position. Ned Pooser, a GOP state committeeman, also wrote a glowing endorsement letter for her appointment that pointed out that the county party backed her.

"She is extremely bright, and a fierce advocate of the 'let's get to work ethic,' wrote Pooser. "The Franklin Republican Executive Committee unanimously endorses her appointment; and I echo that sentiment. The county will benefit by her appointment, as will our party."