The Fine Print

GOP to hold onto Latvala loot and other inside the bubble news

 

 Time for some inside the bubble news here in Tallahassee:

LATVALA DONATIONS....Five years ago in the immediate aftermath of the Allied Veterans of the World charity gambling scandal, the Republican Party of Florida donated $300,000 to a veterans charity. That was the same amount that Allied Veterans had given the state party. The party made the move after the arrests of dozens of people connected to Allied Veterans and the resignation of then-Lt. Gov. Jennifer Carroll. (Carroll was never charged with any wrongdoing and in the end no one did any lengthy jail time in connection with the incident.)

But times have changed.

Republican Party of Florida chairman Blaise Ingoglia says that his party will not return - or offset with a charitable donation - the money that the party has received from a political committee controlled by former State Sen. Jack Latvala. Latvala resigned after a investigation concluded there was probable cause that he had engaged in sexual misconduct. Latvala has denied any wrongdoing, but the matter has been turned over to state law-enforcement authorities.

Latvala's political committee has donated $190,000 since late 2015 - and gave $100,000 in the final quarter of 2017. It's been well-documented that the party isn't raising as much money as it used to because Gov. Rick Scott and Senate Republicans have their own fundraising organizations now. Latvala himself promised to help the party out amid those reports.

In an interview, Ingoglia says that money from Latvala has already been spent or budgeted by the party. But he also argues that it will be .put to good use by the party.

"I would say that the money being used in the Republican Party coffers,  helping to get Republicans elected and putting the infrastructure in place for 2018 is probably a better use for the money,'' Ingoglia said.

Ingoglia added, however, that he would be willing to consider donating or returning the money if the Florida Democratic Party were to return donations it received from former Chairman Stephen Bittel. Bittel resigned after Politico reported that he had made demeaning comments to women.

Campaign records show that Bittel during his time as chairman gave more than $212,000 to the party. In the months ahead of the 2016 election, Bittel also donated $150,000.

OFFICE FOR SALE...One of Tallahassee's most influential lobbying firms - Ballard Partners - recently moved from a historic home on Park Avenue to a brand new office building located at the corner of Park and Monroe Street.

Property records show that Ballard's old offices was bought for $1.35 million by Rubus Idaeus LLC. That's a company that was set up by Tallahassee attorneys Tor Friedman and Eric Abrahamsen. The firm, which has moved into the old Ballard Partners office, handles criminal defense cases, employment law, and personal injury cases.

The roster of attorneys at the firm also includes Tiffany Cruz, who has been in the news lately because she is representing Rachel Perrin Rogers, the Senate employee who filed a formal complaint against Latvala that led to his resignation.

The firm is also representing Farhan "Ronny" Armed - one of the victims at the 2014 shooting at Florida State University who was paralyzed as a result- in a lawsuit against the FSU Board of Trustees. The lawsuit that was filed last year contends that FSU was negligent in providing security.

Kathryn Ballard is a member of the FSU trustees and is married to well-known lobbyist Brian Ballard who runs Ballard Partners. Property records show that both Kathryn and Brian Ballard were listed as co-owners of the office building that was acquired by Rubus Idaeus.

WAITING FOR THE NUMBERS....For the third time this decade, Florida legislators are holding their annual legislative session in January.

One of the prime reasons for the move was that legislators said they liked being able to spend spring break with their children instead of spending it in the halls of the state Capitol.

This year, however, the timing is causing a bit of a potential hiccup.

House and Senate budget writers are having to start work on a new 2018-19 budget without the latest estimates on tax collections. That's because state economists have pushed back the date of their annual estimating conference until Feb. 9th, the fifth week of session.

Amy Baker, one of the main economists, said the reason is primarily due to Hurricane Irma. Irma ripped through the state in September and was responsible for nearly 100 deaths and caused widespread devastation.

Baker explained that sales tax collection data received by the economists generally has a lag in it. So the economists are waiting for a new round of data that will be released Jan. 25th that will show December tax collections, but in reality is more an accurate reflection of November sales.

If economists had scheduled their conference earlier, it was "too close to the hurricane to be useful to us." Baker said that the additional month gives economists "cleanly into the recovery period." The House and Senate agreed to the change, but in order to keep the session on schedule they will begin work on new budgets prior to getting the updated numbers.

This could create a scenario where budget negotiators have to change the budget during the conference period where House and Senate legislators work out differences.

But Sen. Rob Bradley, the Senate budget chief, last week said he was not concerned that the new numbers would show big changes from the previous forecast.

How much power does Gov. Rick Scott really have?

(UPDATE: Florida's voter registration deadline was extended to Oct 18.)

In a federal courtroom on Wednesday, a judge will hear arguments on whether or not the state's voter registration deadline should be extended beyond 5 p.m. due to Hurricane Matthew.

U.S. District Judge Mark Walker has already pushed back the Oct. 11 deadline by a day in order to hold the hearing after the Florida Democratic Party filed a lawsuit on Sunday evening. In his ruling granting the one-day extension, Walker said that the deadline amounts to a "severe burden on the right to vote" and he suggested it was unconstitutional.

The party filed the lawsuit after Gov. Rick Scott turned down requests including an informal suggestion from the campaign of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton  to extend the deadline. Scott, who is supporting GOP nominee Donald Trump, said the reason he was doing it was that people had already had enough time to register.

It's not clear how hard the governor's office plans to fight to keep the deadline. A spokeswoman for Scott put out a statement on Tuesday that said that the state will accept the judge's decision _ and that the governor would even seek to change the law during the upcoming 2017 session.

But one question that is floating out there - and one that may not be totally resolved after the court hearing - is just how much power does Florida's governor have during emergencies?

Walker in his ruling suggested - but not definitely - that Scott lacked the authority to extend the voting deadline.

In his order Walker wrote that while Secretary of State Ken Detzner was an appropriate person for Democrats to sue since he was the chief election official, he didn't think that applied to the governor. He noted that while Scott has "general emergency powers" those powers may not include any power to alter the voting registration deadline. Those powers generally allow the governor to suspend laws if there is a declared emergency.

Walker pointed out, however, that there is a carve out in existing Florida law that allows the governor to delay or suspend an election due to an emergency. The judge then notes that section of law says nothing about changing the voter registration deadline.

That led Walker to conclude it is "wholly irrational in this instance for Florida to refuse the extend the voter registration deadline when the state already allows the governor to suspend or move the election date."

This was an interesting point brought up by Walker since the lawsuit did not even delve into Scott's emergency power. Instead the lawsuit filed by the party suggested that Scott's decision to keep the deadline amid the disruption, power outages and evacuations that occurred due to Matthew amounted to a violation of federal law and disenfranchisement of voters. Scott himself did not cite a lack of authority as a reason for his decision.

Now the elections emergency law cited by Walker has been used before.

Former Gov. Jeb Bush used it to alter the election in 10 counties following Hurricane Charley in 2004. This move allowed county officials to delay the start of early voting.

It's important to note here that Bush's order came on Aug. 19 - or less than 2 weeks before that year's primary - so it's not completely comparable. But another part of his order gave the secretary of state's office the power to "modify, suspend, amend" any deadlines in the entire election code that could not be complied with due to the emergency caused by the hurricane.

But the truth is that several Florida governors have used their emergency powers in broad ways _ and in most instances they have never been challenged.

And while I'm sure it could be argued that the actions of past governors do not create any legal precedence, this shows that Scott could have had a justification to take action if he wanted.

Former Gov. Charlie Crist, for example, used his emergency powers in 2008 to extend early voting hours (a move that privately infuriated some Republicans, but who opted against suing him). Crist even in the final days of his governorship ordered that the state begin to offer extended jobless benefits to Floridians that had been approved by Congress and signed into law by President Barack Obama.

Scott himself back in February 2015 _ without the justification of an emergency _ issued an executive order to suspend an 11th grade standardized test that was about to be given to high school juniors that spring. Scott contended that he could do under his "supreme executive power" but then noted that the Legislature would have a chance to repeal the law that authorized the test later that year.

Were these moves legal? That's hard to tell since the actions were never challenged in court.

But what it shows is that there have been instances in the past where Florida's most recent governors have taken action. And not once did they suggest that they lacked the authority to do so.

The elephant in the room for Florida Republicans

As the Republican National Convention kicks off this coming week the official word is that everything is a-o.k. with Florida Republicans.

Despite that fact that many of the state's 99 Florida delegates supported other candidates ahead of the primaries none of them have been wishing out loud that someone else besides Donald Trump was the presumptive GOP nominee. No talk of blocking delegates from attending or lawsuits.

"The Florida delegation is totally united,'' said Republican Party of Florida Chairman Blaise Ingoglia on CNN on Saturday.

Yet while the delegation will certainly follow the rules and give all 99 Florida votes to Trump a lot of questions remain about the state of the party and the fact that top Republicans in the state are divided into factions.

There's a whole long list of things to consider (including the fact that former Gov. Jeb Bush and his staunchest supporters aren't on board with Trump) but let's just start with the strange situation with the Republican primary for U.S. Senate after incumbent U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio went back on his oft-repeated promise to not to run for election.

Most of the other GOP candidates jumped out once Rubio changed his mind. But Manatee County homebuilder and political newcomer Carlos Beruff didn't. And that was just fine with GOP governor Rick Scott, who came close to endorsing Beruff over Rubio (seen here campaigning for Scott's re-election.) (Also worth noting: Rubio has not been endorsed by Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi, who has a speaking slot at the convention.)

Yet at the same time - Scott's own lieutenant governor Carlos Lopez-Cantera is now actively campaigning for his good friend Rubio and against Beruff.

Beruff this past week went on Florida airwaves with an ad that smacked Rubio, saying he wasn't backing Trump and suggested it had to do with Rubio' s stance on immigration. Lopez-Cantera was the first to fire back by citing Beruff's decision to back Charlie Crist in the 2010 U.S. Senate race (even after Crist had switched from being a Republican to being an independent.) 

"He’s a Crist insider who values political opportunity over Florida’s conservative principles,'' Lopez-Cantera said in a statement distributed by the Rubio campaign.

Then a Super PAC supporting Rubio said it was going up with its own ad to go after Beruff.

Adding to this mix was the suggestion - although knocked down by the Beruff campaign - that maybe, just maybe Beruff was staying in the race against Rubio not to win - but to build his name recognition in a possible bid for governor in 2018.

Scott, talking to one of his former top aides, even chimed in and said that "my experience with Carlos is, whatever he puts his mind to, he’s going to be successful. Whether that’s trying to make sure his customers get what they want, or anything else, Carlos will be successful.”

For those not completely immersed in inside Capitol Circle talk - that's a shot at the presumed campaign of Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam. The icy relationship between Putnam and Scott goes back years. You can bet there are people whispering to Putnam that he needs to be prepared so that he isn't "McCollumed" - a reference to the fact that then Attorney General Bill McCullom was considered a shoo-in for the GOP nomination for governor in 2010 until Scott jumped in at the last minute and self-funded his campaign.

Then there's the whole money thing for all Republicans.

Despite having no announced plans beyond 2018, Scott keeps raising money for his Let's Get to Work political committee and not the Republican Party of Florida as part of the continued fallout after Ingoglia won the chairmanship back in early 2015 over Scott's own handpicked candidate.

Scott has raised more than $1.8 million so far this year for his committee of which he transferred $95,000 back in January to the party. Yes there's a persistent rumor that Scott may run for U.S. Senate, but it's important to point out under campaign finance laws that Scott can't directly use this money - which is from corporate donations - for a federal race.

Now it's true that the Republican National Committee has put in money into the state that has been used to hire ground staff, but what message does it send to donors and others that the state's leading Republican isn't helping out his own party that much?

Lots of political insiders in Tallahassee keep grumbling about the situation and grumbling whether or not Scott's recalcitrance is diverting resources that could at least pay for certain types of party expenses. And remember the Beruff situation? That could increase pressure on Putnam to raise more money for his political committee. (Putnam did give the state party a $25,000 check in June.)

Of course none of this is totally surprising given the awkward relationship Scott has had since he knocked off McCollum even though the veteran politician had support from many establishment Republicans. In the background are GOP consultants with competing agendas and competing candidates ahead of the 2018 elections.

Maybe it's not a big problem.

After all Florida's Democrats continue to have their own history of problems come election time and the rise-and-fall of presidential campaigns has usually been more dependent on the the actual campaigns and not the state party. (There's still bad blood between state operatives and the campaign of 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney as state people contended Romney's folks ignored their advice ahead of a narrow loss to President Barack Obama.)

But after close to 20 years of GOP domination it's still out of character to see so many fault lines and shifting loyalties.

Add it all up and it could matter in a swing state where only a few thousand  - or few hundred ballots - can make a difference in the leader of the free world.

A Democratic casualty of the court and redistricting remains upbeat about her future

With the final days of the Florida Legislature's special session on redistricting winding down it's becoming clear that it is kind of, sort of, following the expected script.

There have been few unexpected moments _ such as U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown's tussle with reporters about the planned revamp of her district and the sight of U.S. Rep. Dan Webster returning to his old stomping grounds to ask GOP legislators to vote down a proposed map prepared by legislative staff and legislative lawyers.

But as the session reaches its conclusion _ with the anticipation that a final deal on a map will be reached in the next day and a half _ a  big parlor game for those in Florida politics is what's going to happen to U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham.

The daughter of former Gov. Bob Graham has widely been seen as a rising star for the beleaguered Florida Democratic Party. Her win last year over GOP incumbent Steve Southerland was one of the few bright spots for the party.

But that could all change.

In order to comply with a court ruling that required Brown's district to be changed the Legislature has settled on a proposal that would split Graham's home base of Leon County in half and shift Democrats in Gadsden County to the district now represented by Brown. The irony is that this proposal was taken from filings made by the groups that sued the Legislature and which was drawn up by Democratic operatives.

While last year was a mid-term year it's important to note that Graham won her current district by less than 3,000 votes.

One analysis points out that President Barack Obama only got 34 percent of the vote in the newly revamped 2nd congressional district as designed by the Legislature. Even though Graham has broken with Democrats in some places _ such as the vote for House Speaker  _ it would be hard to fathom her beating a Republican.

Some have speculated that maybe Graham could jump into another contest, maybe even the crowded scramble for U.S. Senate like U.S. Rep. David Jolly did when it became clear that his district would tilt Democratic.

Or maybe Graham bides her time and runs for governor in 2018. Graham noted Wednesday that even House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy has recently inquired about her future plans.

But Graham says she isn't thinking like that.

She said she plans to "wait and see" what happens before making a final decision about seeking a second term in office.

And when she talks further Graham sounds like someone who isn't planning to make that decision in the near future. And instead she is a bit optimistic that she may be running for the seat she has now.

"I want to continue to serve," Graham said Wednesday in a phone interview shortly after she completed a workday at Southern Craft Creamery in Marianna. "I'm running under the assumption that I'm running for the seat in which I now serve. I truly love that I have the opportunity to represent North Florida."

Without going into detail, Graham is acknowledging that maybe the battle over redistricting won't be wrapped up anytime soon.

While the Florida Supreme Court gave the Legislature 100 days to draw a new map there is a chance that more litigation could derail everything again. Chief of course among the lawsuits is one filed by recently by Brown that contends the court ruling is leading to changes in the 5th congressional district that would violate federal voting laws. If a judge were to side with Brown it could require the drawing of a fourth congressional map since 2012.

"You never know what is going to happen,'' Graham said. "There's a good chance that everything remains intact for 2016."

Graham, who has avoided the Capitol even though she lives just a few miles east of it, said she believes in the Fair District amendments that created the legal challenge that forced the Legislature to act. Those amendments mandated legislators could not draw districts to favor or disfavor incumbents or a member of a political party.

But she did add, however, that no matter her political future she is opposed to the current Leon County split proposed by legislators.

"It is really a shame for Leon County,'' Graham said. "The whole point of Fair Districts was to keep districts from being gerrymandered. We're taking a district (CD2) that wasn't gerrymandered and turned it into two gerrymandered districts."

That almost sounds like it could be a passage in an amicus brief. And maybe, just maybe, it's premature to write Graham's political obituary.

Whirring fans, enemies scattered: The sound and fury of a governor's race

As a voter rally for Gov. Rick Scott in Hialeah a few days before Election Day came to a thunderous close Sen. Anitere Flores welcomed Pastor Mario Bramnick to the stage to give a closing prayer.

Bramnick, the senior pastor of New Wine Ministries Church in Cooper City, wasted little time in praising the Republican incumbent and indirectly attacking Democratic rival Charlie Crist, citing James 5:12 "let your yes be yes, your no be no" and James 1:8 that a "double minded man is unstable."

"We do not need an unstable man, we need a man of leadership,'' Bramnick said.

That was the intro the prayer and during the prayer Bramnick made his thoughts on the upcoming election even more clearer.

"Father we decree and declare that you have anointed and appointed Gov. Rick Scott for this hour to lead this great state of Florida,'' Bramnick said. "Father we pray that you expose the schemes and lies and deceptions of the enemy. Let God arise and our enemies be scattered. Let your kingdom come and your will be done Nov. 4."

In just a few short words Bramnick may have summed up - at least to those directly involved - what the race between Crist and Scott had become. Schemes, lies, deceptions and yes, enemies.

This was not a governor's race, say like in 2002 between Gov. Jeb Bush and Bill McBride, that revolved around such mundane discussions as school funding and reducing class size. Or even the previous 2006 general election between Crist and Democrat Jim Davis that was consumed by property taxes, insurance and whether or not Davis spent enough time in Washington D.C. (the subject of negative ads run by Crist.)

And yes, with Scott's past as the CEO of a company embroiled in Medicare fraud the 2010 elections were heated in both the GOP primary and the general election.

But that race almost seems quaint compared to this one. (Well, although that race featured Scott calling primary opponent Bill McCollum the "Tonya Harding of Florida politics" duing a press conference where Scott got served with a subpoena.)

But despite Democrat Alex Sink's repeated attempts to question Scott's character due to his role with HCA/Columbia much of the race four years ago was in Scott's own words about "jobs, jobs, jobs."

Scott had a bold plan - the 7-7-7 plan - that spelled out how he would return Florida's economy to good health by a mix of tax cuts, regulatory rollbacks and sizable cuts in government spending. In return, he predicted jobs would be forthcoming. Sink did have her own economic plan, but it was Scott's plan - and how it would work - that became one of the centerpieces of that campaign.

This time around there was no bold plans announced to anchor the campaigns.

Scott rolled out policy initiatives largely tied to next year's budget and he promised to bolster funding of the environment and schools. Crist's plans were even less intricate and centered on restoring education funding, equal pay for women and raising the minimum wage.

The main questions in 2014 aren't centered not around ideas, but basically, around character and trust:

Does Florida give Crist another chance even though he left in 2010 when the economy was souring? Or does Florida stick with Scott due to his handling of the economy even though a majority of the electorate doesn't really like him? Can you trust Crist because he supports President Barack Obama and Obamacare? Can you trust Rick Scott to not cut education funding again? And on and on on.

And maybe that's why the race has never broken wide for either candidate because they each spent months arguing about their pasts.

Through the debates and television ads and rallies the race turned bitter, personal and expensive. Crist is corrupt and surrounds himself with corrupt pals was the narrative of several GOP ads. Scott by contrast is "shady" and deceptive from his days with HCA/Columbia to his stint as governor. Fact-checks by many news organizations, including The Associated Press and Politifact, have roundly questioned the assertions made in many of the ads.

The debates probably didn't help that much because the defining moment wound up being Scott's absence from the start of the second one, a incident immortalized in the words of "fangate." Scott maintained he didn't come on stage because he thought Crist was going to boycott the debate because he wasn't supposed to have his fan. If Scott loses the race, there will be those tempted to point to that moment as when he lost the race.

Polls of course show that the steady barrage produced a predictable result: Neither candidate is liked by a majority of voters.

The last Quinnipiac University poll on the eve of the election found just 43 percent had a favorable rating of Crist and only 42 percent gave a favorable rating to Scott.

On the eve of the election, Scott boldly predicted that his campaign would "kick Charlie's rear" because he is providing a "clear choice" to voters about whether they want to pick someone who will help their families.

But unscientific Interviews with voters over the last few days have shown that many of them are voting for the person they find least objectionable.

They want the person who can help the economy. Or they want the person they think is more likely to help them. Some of these voters appear ready to look past Crist's shift from Republican to Democrat, or Scott's decision to jettison some of the tea party elements of his 2010 agenda.

During raucous events held during the final at The Villages and at a Harley Davidson dealership in Orlando, Texas Gov. Rick Perry asserted that Florida's election was really a "national election" that will answer questions about which direction that country moves in the next few years.

"Over the course of the next 24 hours I would suggest the future of America is in balance and Florida is the epicenter of that,'' Perry said.

Well, it's clear that national political figures with potential presidential aspirations such as Perry, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Vice President Joe Biden have come to Florida and have pitched in.

And outside groups such as NextGen Climate, with its links to a California billionaire environmentalist, have made a significant impact in the race as well.

But what's interesting is that despite having what has been billed as the most expensive race in the country the clash between Crist and Scott in such a key swing state has not attracted quite the national media firestorm that one could have expected months ago.

Instead much of the focus in the closing days appears to have been concentrated on the prospect of the Republicans seizing the U.S. Senate.

So where does that leave us?

Is this a battle between good and evil as even some associates of Scott have maintained?

Or is this merely an election between two damaged and flawed candidates?

Will either candidate emerge from this race with much of a mandate in which to govern? Or will it be as previously predicted the prelude to a period when power shifts over to the Florida Legislature?

There will be of course much hand-wringing no matter what happens.

If Crist wins, there will be finger-pointing at how the Scott campaign was run. Did Scott abandon the narrative that helped him in 2010?

If Scott wins, the Crist people will say they couldn't defeat a candidate withs uch a distinct cash advantage including the nearly $13 million Scott put in at the close. And there will be Democrats who will say 'I told you so' and complain that they should have pushed U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson harder to jump into the contest.

Recriminations. Enemies scattered. Amen.

The one number that Rick Scott and Charlie Crist should care about

It's 81,153

And as we talk about vote totals, ad buys, and self-funding in the bitter brutal contest between incumbent Gov. Rick Scott and challenger Charlie Crist, why is that number relevant?

Because that's the number of Florida voters who decided it wasn't worth their while to cast a ballot in the governor's race four years ago.

The contest between Democrat Alex Sink and Scott, which included a heavy dose of negative ads and lots of talk about HCA/Columbia and Medicare fraud, caused a spike in the number of so-called "undervotes." Undervotes are when voters choose, for whatever reason, to leave the ballot blank in a particular race.

The state tracks undervotes and overvotes as part of an exercise to make sure there aren't technical problems with the election.

And the report released several months after the tough 2010 election showed that the number of Florida voters who skipped the governor's race nearly doubled from what it was in 2006 when Jim Davis squared off against Crist.

That same report also showed that by contrast the number of voters skipping the U.S. Senate battle featuring Crist, eventual winner Marco Rubio and Kendrick Meek dramatically declined from what it had been during the 2006 U.S. Senate race.

In the end that number of 81,153 is pretty significant because it exceeded the final margin of a race that won by Scott with just 61,550 votes.

Much has been made in the last few days - by both the Crist and Scott campaigns - about how many voters are in the bank and whether the 2010 or 2012 turnout model is the best one to measure the current vote totals.

The numbers from Monday showed that 1.82 million people had already cast ballots and that the GOP had roughly an 8 percent edge. There's lot of analysis about what this means and if the numbers are showing that the Democrats are performing better than they did in 2010 when Scott narrowly won.

The undervote numbers, however, should cause everyone to pause for a moment.

Just because someone voted still doesn't mean that they filled in the oval for either Crist or Scott.

The 2010 numbers shows even voters casting absentee ballots, who are considered super motivated, can still skip a contentious race where both candidates are seen as unlikable or untrustworthy.

The numbers from four years ago show that 25,000 - or roughly 2 percent of all absentee ballots cast - did not contain a vote for governor. That was a higher percentage of blank ballots than votes coming either from early voting sites or on Election Day itself.

So while a lot of speculation can be made about the votes in the bank, this trend from four years ago is another reminder that it may be premature to render grand predictions just yet.

The Scott-Crist clash, with as much as $100 million being spent on television ads from their campaigns and their allies, may in fact generate as high or even higher rate of undervotes if voters are disenchanted with either of their choices (and choose not to vote for Libertarian Adrian Wyllie.)

The latest Quinnipiac University poll put Crist's favorable rating at 42 percent and Scott's at 40 percent. So according to pollsters, a majority of Floridians surveyed did not like either candidate.

Four years ago Quinnipiac's final poll before the 2010 election put Sink's favorable rating at 43 percent and Scott's at 34 percent.

Just something to think about in the final days.

The Rick Scott machine grinds on with a growing sense of confidence

Is it all over but the shoutin'?

There are moments that it certainly looks that way - at least when observing what the Republican Party of Florida and the re-election campaign of Gov. Rick Scott are saying and doing lately.

While some polls have the race essentially tied with two months to go, the signals from the Scott campaign and their "out of state mercenaries" is that they have turned the tide and they are proceeding down the checklist of things they have to come up with to win the race over Democratic rival Charlie Crist.

The two-week bus tour launched last week was a great example of that.

The bus tour, where Scott is touting a $1 billion tax cut package over the next years, appears aimed squarely at trying to rally the Republican base of voters. Scott's new talking points for the events include linking Crist to President Barack Obama time and time and time again.

Crist and Obama are alike says Scott because they think "money grows on trees."

Now normally one would assume the need to nail down the base in the early going of a re-election campaign.

But the Scott campaign has spent the last few months spending tens of millions grinding down Crist in a series of negative ads. If the belief is that the negative ads have made Crist increasingly unacceptable to independent voters, then the idea of turning back to the base makes sense.

The recent poll done by the University of Florida in concert with a handful of media organizations would seem to bear that out. It maintained that among those Floridians surveyed that just 37 percent now trust Crist.

It's already been well documented that the Democratic turnout was not very impressive during the Aug. 26th primary. During a session held at the Florida Association of Professional Lobbyists conference last week, the executive director of the Florida Democratic Party acknowledged that the low turnout numbers in Broward were especially worrisome.

So if independents stay home, Democrats remain lukewarm, then the path to victory is with the Republican base of voters.

Of course the Scott campaign has been calling and trying to motivate voters for some time now. But the bus tour gave them an opportunity to reinforce that with visits to GOP strongholds such as southwest Florida. While some in the base may have their problems with Scott because of Common Core and All Aboard Florida, they are trying to calm those fears.

There are other things that also bolster the idea of a growing confidence in Scott world.

Their press strategy, for one, has been on a need to know basis.

As in, the Scott campaign will cooperate with the press on things that enhance its narrative. Want a key example? After putting out press release after press release about their ads, they have been less forthcoming about other ads.

One hard-hitting ad entitled "Swindled" start running right after the primary ended and features a person who says he was swindled by Scott Rothstein, the Ponzi schemer and one time associate of Crist. Christopher Heath with WFTV asked questions about the ad but got no answers.

The Scott campaign in 2010 avoided editorial boards completely. This time around they have employed a selective strategy. While they have spent time at places like Florida Today and the Tampa Tribune, they have not scheduled any time with some of the major papers who might be viewed as more adversarial i.e. The Tampa Bay Times. In other words, it would appear they plan to make visits to the places where they view an endorsement as a possibility.

Another key element that could help build confidence: While the Crist-Scott race initially drew a lot of national attention it doesn't appear that the race has become as nationalized - and the scores of earned media that would accompany it - as one thought it could become.

So far, it appears that many parts of the national media are spending time watching the handful of U.S. Senate races that could tip the balance to the GOP.

Juston Johnson, the executive director of the Republican Party of Florida, who also appeared at the FAPL event made it clear that the Scott campaign is looking at the finish line confidently. (Johnson repeated the 'out of state mercenaries' line that has become a motivational spark for the Scott team.)

Johnson told the group that it was "remarkable" that Scott has gone from trailing Crist to matching, or in the case of the UF poll, leading him. But beyond that, Johnson said he doubted that any debates between Scott and Crist would change the outcome of the election pointing out some would occur after people had already begun. Nor did he expect "some scandalous story come out that will drastically change this race."

Johnson talked about how the party and campaign had spent a year putting together its field operations and digital efforts and now it was a matter of just getting them to "do their thing."

It's easy to understand Johnson's point of view that voters in Florida know an awful lot already about both Scott and Crist and there may not much more than change the narrative of the race.

For their part Crist's team is also putting in place their strategy.

The Democrats and Crist held back on spending a lot of money in advance of the primary. A peek inside the Crist headquarters in St. Petersburg shows an organization that is setting up its own field operations, relying on some of the same strategies and analytics that aided Obama's successful runs in Florida the last two presidential cycles.

Scott Arceneaux, the executive director of the Democrats who like other Democratic operatives is spending quite a bit of time in central Florida with the Crist team, bluntly predicted that the race between Crist and Scott would be only one or two points and that the race wouldn't be decided until Wednesday.

The Scott campaign early on decided that Crist was the one opponent that they wanted in this election. They have been up on television all summer. They are clearly sticking to their game plan so far. They have had some gaffes and bumps so far but the large cash advantage has apparently enabled them to withstand those blows.

The last big onslaught from Crist and company is coming. The question is whether it will be too little too late, or whether it will derail the Scott machine's march onward.

Unlikely allies: Democrats and Scott administration defend write-in loophole

Every election year in Florida usually brings its share of litigation (although presidential election years usually have a longer list of lawsuits.)

There's a curious lawsuit now pending in a Leon County circuit court that has prompted a strategic alliance between two normal foes: the Florida Democratic Party and the administration of Gov. Rick Scott.

The lawsuit centers around a write-in candidate, Ronald Bray, who qualified in what is expected to be a contentious state House race between Broward County Commissioner Kristin Jacobs and former Rep. Steve Perman.

The entry of Bray into the race effectively closed the Aug. 26 primary, which for all purposes will determine the outcome of the election since a write-in has never won in Florida.

Florida voters in 1998 approved an amendment that was supposed to open up primary races to all voters regardless of party affiliation if candidates of other parties do not qualify. But a controversial Division of Elections opinion penned by the administration of then-Secretary of State Katherine Harris back in 2000 said that when a write-in candidate qualifies for the general election the primary must remain closed. That means many races in Florida, like this one, are routinely closed by the sudden appearance at the end of qualifying of write-in candidates. Here's a good story about it how it affected the 2012 elections.

Robert Adams, who describes himself as an independent voter in Broward County, filed a lawsuit to remove Bray on the grounds that Bray does not live in House District 96. His lawsuit cites a current state law that requires write-in candidates to live in their district at the time of qualifying.

Adams' lawyers were in court on Monday seeking a preliminary injunction so that Broward County officials would be forced to open up the primary. Judge George Reynolds apparently turned down the initial request, but has accelerated the process in order to render a quick decision. The two sides must file all their legal briefs on the case by this Thursday.

But Reynolds also allowed the Florida Democratic Party to intervene in the case.

And the Democrats are already making an interesting argument: That the law requiring write-in candidates to live in their districts is unconstitutional. The Democrats request to intervene contends this requirement is at odds with the state constitution, which has generally been interpreted to mean that legislators don't have to live in their districts until Election Day. (This argument is also being made by lawyers representing the write-in candidate.)

Also included in the motion is this: "The State Executive Committee of the Florida Democratic Party takes no position regarding the candidacy of the two Democratic candidates who have qualified for nomination and election to the office of State Representatives, District 96 (sic). Its interest in this litigation is in assuring that the provisions of the State Constitution establishing qualifications for candidates for the State House of Representatives are not eroded by adding additional qualifications, not otherwise specified in the State Constitution."

In essence, the Democratic Party wants to keep the primary closed to independents and Republicans. (One could wonder if this hurts or helps a particular candidate in the race.)

And who else wants to keep the primary closed for now? Secretary of State Ken Detzner, who works for Scott.

Attorneys for the Scott administration and state election officials contend in their legal briefs that opening up the primary now would create an "unnecessary burden" on election officials and could potentially disrupt the upcoming election. The legal brief notes, for example, that overseas ballots must be sent out by July 12.

"At this stage in the elections process, the relief requested by Plaintiff has the potential to jeopardize the accuracy and reliability of the election,'' states the department's filing. "Plaintiff’s proposal is to reverse the Supervisor’s current course and, in a matter of days before the Saturday, July 12 mailing deadline, restyle the ballots and reset the mailing to all registered electors."

The state's legal brief also throws out what it calls a "far simpler remedy" if the court does decide to disqualify Bray - conduct the open primary at the Nov. 4 general election.

(As a sidelight - another interesting element of the state's brief is that it argues that state election officials are not able to determine the "truth and accuracy" of someone's residency at time of qualifying so therefore the state did "nothing in error.")

This is the not the only time the state and Democrats have joined sides - they also did during a legal challenge to President Barack Obama appearing on Florida's ballot. But it's still a rare occurrence.

And just as important for Democrats it means that they can't complain when write-in candidates suddenly appear to close off Republican primaries to Democratic voters.

Where things stand four months before Election Day

Happy Independence Day.

It's now exactly 4 months before voters in Florida will decide who to pick for governor.

Amid the recent twist of events as well as the multi-million dollar barrage of ads from the re-election campaign of Gov. Rick Scott against former Gov. Charlie Crist some pundits are already proclaiming Crist's campaign off course. They have argued he is in need of a campaign shake-up or he needs to debate Democratic state senator Nan Rich or he needs to release his wife's tax returns etc. etc.

Well, that's for the pundits to debate.

But let's take a look an overall look of where things stand at present:

MONEY: It was reported back in 2013 that the Scott campaign planned to spend $100 million to get re-elected. Well, while that goal is still possible - it's not apparent that amount is a sure thing.

It has appeared that Scott's main re-election vehicle _ Let's Get to Work _ was poised to burn through all of its cash by the time the Aug. 26 primary rolls around. The June 27th reports filed with the state indicated that LGTW had about $11 million left in the bank after spending $17.3 million - most of it on television ad buys since March.

The Republican Governor's Association, however, kicked in $4 million just two days ago according to updated filings on the LGTW web site.

It's significant that the RGA chose to share that money with LGTW - which can run ads attacking Crist but can't run ads that explicitly tell voters to stick with Scott. The Scott campaign has been proclaiming for months that it the incumbent governor was raising most of his money for the Republican Party of Florida. RPOF can run ads that urge voters to choose Scott, but only if they also tout other candidates. It's also significant since one of the supposed advantages of buying ads through the party as opposed through LGTW is that the party can purchase ads at a cheaper rate. So obviously there was a feeling that the burn rate needs to be even higher than it has been.

So barring any additional significant contributions we can anticipate that LGTW will have spent $30 million from March to the end of August or a little more than 2 months left before Election Day.

Crist for the most part has been waiting before tapping into his campaign warchest. The most recent reports indicate that Crist has at least $10 million in the bank.

Crist, who has tapped into public financing in his past runs for office, will likely get a substantial amount of matching money from the state later this month.

That means there's a good chance Crist will still have a healthy bank account once the primary election is over (although it won't be surprising if third party groups bankrolled by unknown parties go after him this month in an attempt to force Crist to spend more than he wants prior to the primary.) So far, however, Crist has gotten help from the Florida Democratic Party which is running its own ads going after Scott which means that Crist can continue to hold back.

We still don't have a good idea of how much money outside groups plan to bring into the state. A billionaire has already pledged to spend considerable sums to go after candidates on the issue of climate change including Scott. Meanwhile, other groups appear waiting in the wings to assist Scott.

At this point it would be save to assume that at least $100 million will be spent by everyone involved in this race - or at least four times more than has been spent to date but probably less than what was once hinted at.

POLLS: Much has been made of the tracking in the polls that have shown Scott erasing the lead Crist once had and in some cases leading the Republican turned independent turned Democrat although it is usually within the margin of error.

Well, the issue of course hinges on whether the turnout models used by the various polls will be accurate.

Early signs are that Republicans will not replicate the 2010 turnout that helped Scott squeeze out a victory over Democrat Alex Sink. The expectations of course are that the Democrats will not come close to witnessing the type of turnout that helped President Barack Obama win Florida a second time in 2012.

But let's consider how quickly things can turn - even with a candidate spending considerable amounts of money.

On June 29, 2010 Quinnipiac University had Scott up on Attorney General Bill McCollum by a 43-32 margin in the looming GOP primary for governor. By August 18, 2010 Quinnipiac had it totally flipped with that poll among "likely primary" voters to a 44 to 35 percent edge for McCollum.

One of the recent polls that has gotten a lot of attention was that the Florida Chamber of Commerce poll released in late June that had Scott at 41 percent and Crist at 38 percent (or within the margin of error meaning essentially they were tied). This was a poll of self-selected "likely voters" according to the Chamber. The Chamber, for what it's worth, released a poll (done by a different company) on Aug. 13, 2010 that showed McCollum had turned the tide against Scott and was actually up by 12 points.

The point is this: The general trendlines suggest a tightening of the race, which actually should not have been unexpected. But we may be a tad too far out to have an accurate gauge on who will actually vote in this election. (See this previous post on whether or not Scott can count on the GOP base to show up like it has in past elections.)

Case in point: The Quinnipiac poll from April 30 showed Crist up by a full 10 points. But that poll also showed Crist pulling in 10 percent of Republican voters, while Scott was pulling in 9 percent of Democrats. Even more interesting is that even that poll contended there was no more than 9 percent undecided.

Bottom line: After Scott and the Republicans have spent $17 million the race is essentially tied and Democrats and Crist are only now returning fire.

ORGANIZATION: We don't have to do much analysis here: Scott and the Republican Party of Florida have a bigger staff and a larger organization and it's unlikely that will change.

They plan to use a microtargeting plan that will attempt to identify voters who can propel the incumbent governor to victory. Not that there hasn't been a long line of missteps along the way, i.e., the entire episode with finance chairman Mike Fernandez.

Crist has had his own series of problems putting together a staff. It does appear he will have a fair amount of help from Democrats. While the Democrats are underfunded, they did not actively recruit a lot of legislative and Cabinet candidates that will compete for scarce resources. It's a big gamble, of course, since Crist could lose, but a win would help the Democrats immensely. There have been suggestions that the vaunted Obama network will come into play but at this juncture it doesn't appear that it will resemble anything close to what the OBama campaign did in this state just two years ago.

WHAT'S NEXT: For many Republicans there is an expectation, and hope, that maybe wasn't there a year, or even 6 months ago. They see the fundraising numbers, the polls and the problems so far experienced by Crist's team as proof that victory is within their grasp.

But it's also true that Crist has not begun a sustained assault against Scott.

We already seen some hints of where he plans to go: On a recent stop in Tallahassee Crist argued that voters will get the "old Rick Scott" a.k.a. the one who cut education funding by more than $1 billion and killed high speed rail and not the new Scott who has tried to take a few steps to the middle. Expect more of that. Expect public service workers and unions to ramp up to remind their rank and file that Scott was the person who took 3 percent out of the paychecks of every teacher, prison guard and even sheriff's deputies across the state. Expect Scott to continue to be drawn into the ongoing contentious battle over Common Core that shows no signs of diminishing and could haunt him all the way to Election Day.

There will be debates, there will be continued economic news that could hamper Scott's pro-jobs message, and not to mention a court ruling on gay marriage that could also force the Scott administration on the defensive. (The state is defending the state's current ban on gay marriage.)

Bottom line: Four months out it is evident Scott is no longer losing. But it's hard to argue anyone is winning either.

In Florida, it's "all about the base." Or is it?

State senator and former Republican Party of Florida chairman John Thrasher repeated the same mantra when Jeb Bush started his quest to become the first GOP governor to win a second term: "It's all about the base."

Translation: Motivate your core supporters in big enough numbers to negate any advantage the other person and other party may have.

That was 2002 but it might as well have been an eternity ago in Florida politics.

Back then motivating the base was a key reason for Bush's victory (especially coming just two years after the 2000 presidential election chaos showed how divided the state could be in an election.) The late Bill McBride, a first-time candidate, squeezed out a Democratic primary victory over former U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno. The thinking at the time was that McBride could appeal to the middle and independents more than Reno.

But Bush - buoyed by a strong GOP turnout as well as strong support in his adopted hometown of Miami (which was also Reno's hometown) -took 56 percent of the vote. McBride's showing was so bad that Democrat Buddy Dyer, running down ballot against Charlie Crist in the attorney general's race, received nearly 98,000 more votes.

It's no secret that the demographics and dynamics of Florida and its political makeup has shifted since then as much as sand dunes do following a big storm.

So we know that the electorate is not like it was even a decade ago.

When Bush won a second term there were 9.3 million voters. Now there's 11.7 million. While the numbers of Republicans and Democrats has gone up, the number of independent voters not affiliated with any party has gone up dramatically, soaring from 1.5 million in 2002 to nearly 2.67 million by April of this year.

But in this year's governor's race we have two, or if you like, three candidates who are testing the premise that it requires a motivated base in order to ultimately win an election.

And the strategy comes during a year in which elections in Virginia and Mississippi have led to all sorts of speculation and analysis about the strength of the tea party elements in the GOP and what politicians have do to win these days.

Let's start, however, with Rick Scott and his campaign machine that includes the Republican Party of Florida.

It's been hinted at again and again - but let's repeat it anyway: Charlie Crist is the candidate that Scott world wanted from the get-go. There were people in Scott world as it's known who knew that Crist's record as a governor along with his ongoing political transformation would make him an inviting target to contrast with against Scott.

But just as importantly the hope is that animus against Crist - i.e. the turncoat, the "back stabber" who now supports the hated Obamacare - will motivate Republicans to get out in force come election time in 2014.

Because at the same time Scott and his campaign have taken a variety of policy turns in the last two years that in essence go against the wishes of the tea party folks and those in the base that helped Scott four years ago. In other words, Scott's campaign strategy is - Republicans hate Crist so they will get out in force - but at the same time we will court moderates and the middle.

Consider that since the start of 2013 Scott has done the following:

* Backed expansion for Medicaid a key component of President Barack Obama's health care overhaul.

* Supported and signed legislation that extend in-state tuition rates to undocumented students living in Florida despite criticism from members of his own party that it was "pandering" to certain types of voters.

* Signed a limited medical marijuana bill.

* Refused to go along with calls to outright repeal Common Core State Standards in Florida. Instead Scott has gone along with a series of steps intended to try to address some of the concerns expressed by activists and grassroots groups angered by Common Core. These included jettisoning the words Common Core from state law even though Florida standards remain based primarily on Common Core. He also signed bills that ban schools from collecting data and give parents more of a say over local textbook choices.

* Has come out in support of All Aboard Florida _ a proposed rail line linking Orlando to Miami _ despite a growing backlash in certain GOP-leaning communities. Scott has had the state support funding for projects that will ultimately help the rail line achieve its goals even if the money isn't going directly to the rail line. it seems an eternity ago when Scott had the state reject billions from the federal government for a high speed rail line between Orlando and Tampa.

If you look at this list you can see that Scott is taking a calculated risk that Common Core or immigration issues won't come back to haunt him like they have other Republican candidates. In other words, he's counting on Republicans to work hard for him despite taking positions that may antithetical to the base.

It was just a few days ago U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz get a good reception from Miami-Dade Republicans when he went after Common Core. There's a wave that has been cresting across the country that has prompted governors in Louisiana, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Indiana to re-think their education policy in response to the growing chorus of opposition to Common Core which has been at its loudest among GOP activists.

Scott has reportedly told some activists that "Common Core is out" in Florida which is an artful, yet one could say misleading, way to phrase it. He's right that Common Core isn't on the books anymore. But the ghost is still in the machine and it's still guiding what the state is doing.

Scott's re-thinking of his immigration positions are also potentially perilous as well.

Polling has shown that the issue of in-state tuition resonates big with Hispanic voters who are a growing force in Florida and could help decide the race. Yet at the same time it's an issue that has hurt Florida politicians at times. (U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez's decision to forgo a 2010 re-election may have been a personal one, but there's no doubt his embrace of immigration reform had made him a likely target for a challenge from the right.)

So while you have Scott trying to pivot to the middle if he can, you have Crist and Democratic challenger Nan Rich battling over the Democratic base.

And in that instance there is an effort to damage Crist so he will be seen in a less favorable light among Democratic activists and grassroots.

Crist of course has reinvented himself and had changed his positions on such issues as same-sex marriage. Despite his "evolution" or flip-flops, however you wish to term it, he has picked up support from key Democratic-leaning organizations such as the AFL-CIO and the Florida Education Association.

But there are groups _ whose funding is shrouded in mystery _ who are trying to remind Democratic voters that Crist was once a solid Republican.

As reported by the Orlando Sentinel the group Progressive Choice _ which has also sent out mailers attacking Crist _ is now running radio ads that attack him for his efforts to bring back chain gangs to the state. Another radio ad took Crist to task for creating a "lost generation" of African-Americans.

It is not known who is bankrolling the effort and of course Crist's operatives speculate that is a front for Republicans.

Regardless of the origin it would appear the strategy could either A)Diminish enthusiasm in the Democratic base for Crist and/or B)Drive up Rich's numbers in the August primary to emphasize Crist's vulnerability. There are some who are hoping that Rich tops 40 percent so that Crist will look like damaged goods heading into the general election.

So in other words this could create a dream scenario for Scott where Republicans upset about Crist show up in force (say somewhere less than the 2010 anti-Obama wave year but still strong enough) and Democrats don't because they are lackluster in their love of Crist once he secures the nomination.

Ok. It could work.

But what if Democrats motivate their base by emphasizing this is a chance to defeat Scott. Despite Scott's attempt to recalibrate his image, he remains for lack of a better word, a villian to the left. Scott and his campaign have made an effort to soften and rebrand him (Constant reminders of his grandchildren, constant mentions that his father lost his job often, that he lived in public housing etc. etc.)

And everyone in the GOP side has taken comfort that Crist's numbers have fallen. Yes, but Crist really hasn't taken to the airwaves yet. What happens then? What if the ads - and the reminders about Scott's record - resonate? You can see it coming: Scott cut education, Scott turned down high speed rail, Scott' lacks integrity because of his time at Columbia/HCA.

Yes, I know some will say, well it didn't work back in 2010. Um, yes. But Scott wasn't a known commodity back then. He presented himself as a business guy who would turn around the economy. Yes, he has the positive that the economy is slowly recovering and the unemployment rate has dropped. (But even that narrative will be tested in the months ahead because the signs are that the rate will likely stay the same, or only dip slightly. That's the curse of an improving economy. As more people reenter the work force, it's harder to move the needle.)

The bottom line remains - what happens if the make Crist a bad guy strategy doesn't really work?

Back in 2002 despite a smaller voting base Bush received 2.85 million votes.

Eight years later Scott got 2.6 million in a big year for Republicans. Marco Rubio got more votes for U.S. Senate than Scott and he was in a three-way race with both Crist and U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek.

This time around there's no Rubio on the ballot to help drive Republicans to the polls. There's just Scott.

And we will see whether it's still "all about the base."