The Fine Print

Florida turned upside down: 5 takeaways about the 2018 election

  With just under 100 days left before Florida voters decide the crucial 2018 election, President Donald Trump held a boisterous rally on Tuesday night with 10,000 people in Tampa where he enthusiastically urged his supporters to back U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis for governor in the upcoming Republican primary.

Trump's backing of DeSantis is already being seen as a fatal blow to Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam, who for most of the last year appeared to rolling smoothly in his quest to succeed Florida Gov. Rick Scott.

1 big takeaway....The Trump primary

The rally in Tampa and the downward drag on Putnam emphatically shows the outsized importance of all things Trump in the Aug. 28 primary.

In a year when toxic algal blooms are fouling the state's waters ,the shooting at Parkland prompted a reluctant Florida Legislature to act on guns, and Stand Your Ground laws are once again being scrutinized- the defining issue in the primary remains the president.

On the GOP side, it's more than just the holding a rally and tweeting out his support. Candidates up and down the ballot in the Sunshine State are arguing with each other on whether someone is a true believer - or whether someone had once been opposed to Trump before his election in 2016. Case in point: Sen. Greg Steube unearthing old tweets by Rep. Julio Gonzalez to paint him as a "Never Trumper." 

Democrats, meanwhile, are skirmishing over who is the most-anti-Trumper, and how strong their opposition is. Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum likes to point out how he's calling for Trump's impeachment, while candidate Jeff Greene has called Trump a "traitor." Gwen Graham has called Trump a "bully' and "embarrassment." But this fervor isn't contained to just the governor's race. It's playing out in numerous congressional contests as well.

This election cycle is now worlds away from ones where issues such as class size, education, health care and job growth dominated.

In some ways, it began in 2010 when Gov. Rick Scott used criticism of President Barack Obama and fears of rising national debts as a key part of his campaign. But Scott also highlighted immigration and his plans tor turning around the state's economy as other parts of his campaign message.

Just before Trump took stage, the Putnam campaign recognized this new reality that has turned the state's politics upside down.

In a statement Putnam praised Trump, yet at the same time bemoaned that DeSantis "has released zero plans on any Florida issue since announcing his campaign." 

 2. End of traditional campaigns?

The potential demise of Putnam also shows that the tried-and-true methods used by so many candidates in the past are becoming less and less important.

In 2010, Scott's victory showed that an onslaught of television ads could bury a rival who had built up a campaign organization. But if DeSantis wins it shows that a presidential endorsement - and a bevy of appearances on Fox News - can blunt money, staffing and organizational advantages. (It also shows the diminished impact of local media in a world where everything is seen through a DC-centric, not Florida-centric lens.)

Florida's primary usually has been decided by a small subset of voters. Only 22 percent of voters turned out in the 2010 primary. Normally this would mean that a campaign needed to chase absentee voters and engage in a robust campaign of phone calls and personal contacts in order to get voters to participate. That's why a superior organization was considered crucial.

But another key question emerging this cycle is the role of television ads.

Several campaign consultants have said that TV remains a huge factor in Florida, especially among older voters. There's a possibility, however, that the winning candidate from both the GOP and Democratic side will not have spent nearly as much money on television ads as their rivals. As viewing habits - and consumption of information changes among young voters- it's worth noting that this could be a turning point.

3. Recycling the playbook

There is one campaign that is sticking to some tried-and-true strategies and that's the one Scott is mounting against incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson.

Scott has sold himself has a successful businessman, but that career was overshadowed by scandal. Scott was forced out as CEO of Columbia/HCA shortly after a federal investigation became public. The end result is that Scott's former company paid a then-record fine of $1.7 billion to settle allegations of fraud.

So in three straight elections Scott campaign team (which includes many of the same consultants each time) has gone on the offensive: It's the other candidate who has ethics problems. They took the state plane, they helped a crook defraud investors, etc. The early press releases and even some of the ads in this year's campaign echo this. They are all designed to force Nelson to defend his actions and behavior. It can be argued that some of the actions aren't of equal weight, but that's not the point.

Two other elements at work: Scott in 2010 and 2014 assailed Obama and his policies and tried to link them to the Democratic nominee. Bashing the federal government was part of the governor's talking points and script. Trump's ascension has made that trickier,  but now it's shots at Democrats like Nancy Pelosi and complaints in general about how DC is dysfunctional (no matter that Republicans are in control.)

Last item: Ahead of 2014, Scott made sure to use his power as governor to sidestep or try to mitigate potential controversies bubbling up, especially those happening in key Republican strongholds. It appears to be happening again this year as well.

4. Which voters will show up?

When you talk to those who waged campaigns against Scott, aside from the finger-pointing over went wrong, the real frustration is that he squeezed by each time.

Scott won by nearly 62,000 votes (about 1.2 percent) in 2010 and more than 64,00 votes (1 percent) four years later.

Overall turnout in both elections hovered around 50 percent and Democrats seemed unable to generate the kind of turnout they needed in Democratic strongholds to overtake Scott. (Turnout in the last three presidential contests _ two of which were won by Obama _ have been at 70 percent or above.)

This, however, was before the age of Trump.

Now of course there predictions _ and attempts to debunk _ the notion of a "blue wave" that will translate displeasure with Trump into success at the ballot box. Various Democrats have engaged in back-and-forth over what will make the difference this year: Is it a candidate that appeals to young voters, women voters, or progressives? 

But here's another factor for the Republicans _ and the DeSantis camp especially _ to consider: Can they replicate Trump's numbers?

Trump's 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton in Florida was significant because Clinton actually got more votes than Obama did the two times he carried the state. She came in within 6,000 votes of Trump in places like Duval County.

The difference, however, is the margins Trump rolled up in Republican dominated or Republican-leaning counties, fueled in part by an "impressive" surge of voting that took place on Election Day. (See: Election Daze: Voting Modes and Voter Preferences in the 2016 Election - Authors - Smith, McKee, Hood).

And that translated into substantial margins not previously seen. In Lee County, for example, Trump got 44,000 more votes than Mitt Romney did just four years earlier. Will these voters in Florida who propelled Trump victory two years ago transport their support for the president into this year's midterm?

5. The Puerto Rican Diaspora

Last Saturday San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulín Cruz endorsed Nelson in his battle against Scott and while doing so repeated criticisms against Trump and how his administration responded in the aftermath of last year's Hurricane Maria.

It was the latest chapter in an ongoing push by both Republicans and Democrats to appeal to tens of thousands of Puerto Ricans who flocked to Florida after the devastating storm.

Both Nelson and Scott have traveled to the island territory. Scott for his part offered assistance to Puerto Rican evacuees, even going so far as using his emergency powers to sidestep the Legislature in order to pay for it. Candidates for governor have also focused on Puerto Rico. He stared airing a Spanish-language television and digital ad on Wednesday that stressed he had helped Puerto Ricans.

Former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine chartered a plane and delivered supplies shortly after Maria struck. Gillum traveled to San Juan last weekend.

There are open questions, however, about the impact that evacuees will play in Florida's election.

The Washington Post pointed out a few days ago that so far there is little indication that the Puerto Ricans who left the island are registering to vote in the state.

There's still time for that to change as the election moves closer. But as Orlando legislator Amy Mercado noted to the Post: "Their main focus obviously is going to be survival...The last thing they are thinking about is politics."

Mystery appeals and campaign finance dilemmas

Time for another round of inside the bubble news....

Who's ad is it anyway?....Republican frontrunner for governor Adam Putnam hit the airwaves this month with a biographical ad that is meant to highlight his agricultural roots and his belief in faith and family.

But campaign records available so far show that the ad isn't being bankrolled by Putnam's campaign.

Instead Florida Grown, a political committee organized and controlled by the agriculture commissioner, has already paid nearly $1 million to Smart Media Group to purchase television time for the ad. That has been backed by FCC filings on file that show that the ad is being paid for by Florida Grown.

Ads on television have carried a disclaimer saying it was a paid political advertisement from Florida Grown.

Yet on Sunday, the Putnam campaign put out a fundraising pitch that says it's their ad and asked people to give them money to keep it on the air. There's a link to the ad on the Putnam for governor website. That version _ which is a full minute in length and not 30 seconds like the version shown on television _ has a disclaimer saying it was paid by the Adam Putnam for governor campaign.

So why is this important?

Well, the first is that Florida Grown can accept unlimited amounts from anyone, including corporate donors, while Putnam's actual campaign can only accept donations worth up to $3,000. So that means that it's harder to raise money for the actual campaign versus the political committee. And that's why there would be a desire to pay for television ads through the committee since those dollars are much easier to replace.

But while Florida law regarding political committees has loosened up in recent years there remain some restrictions on how those committees can spend money.

Florida does not have the same kind of federal restrictions that are supposed to limit contact and coordination between campaigns and other groups. Campaigns are allowed to work in tandem with committees regarding ads.

But the state's Division of Elections put out a very interesting opinion in 2016 that could have ramifications for the Putnam campaign.

Well-known attorney Ron Meyer, who does work on behalf of entities aligned with the Florida Education Association, asked that year about what kind of ads a political committee could undertake - including running television ads that refer or depict "a clearly identified candidate for office" that do not "expressly advocate" for that candidate but have no other reasonable interpretation "than an appeal to vote for or against a specific candidate."

In that opinion, the division stated that there are a type of ads that fall outside the normal definition of what constitutes a regulated ad. These are ads that are run outside a period of 30 days before a primary and 60 days before a general election. These ads are also coordinated with a campaign but do not expressly advocate someone's election. But here's the important part: Since these ads don't fall under the normal definition then a committee that does such ad could be contributing to a campaign.

If this opinion were applied to the Florida Grown ad, then it could be a problem especially since $1 million is way beyond the $3,000 contribution limit.

Under Florida law, campaigns that accept contributions above the legal limit can be susceptible to fines twice the amount of the contribution.

It is important to stress that this is an interpretation of existing law by the Division of Elections. But this speaks to the nature of Florida's complicated campaign finance laws and how they function - and just as important - what is the actual purpose of the law.

MYSTERY APPEAL...There was quite a bit of drama last week as it relates to Florida's automatic ban on civil rights for felons.

A federal appeals court late Wednesday agreed to place a stay on U.S. District Judge Mark Walker's ruling that maintained that Florida's current system for deciding who should have their rights restored is unconstitutional. Florida currently requires former prisoners to wait anywhere from five to seven years after they leave prison before they can ask to have their rights restored. Walker sided with former prisoners who had their applications denied. And as part of that ruling, Walker ordered the state to overhaul its rules by April 26.

Fearful that the appeals court would not act in time Gov. Rick Scott scheduled an emergency meeting of the state's clemency board (which consists of the governor and the three other elected Cabinet officials) with a potential new set of rules. The meeting was scrapped, however, when the court came down with its last-minute decision.

So here's the mystery then: Who gave the order for the clemency board to file the appeal and request the stay in the first place?

Here's the reason for that question: The lawsuit wasn't just against Scott or Attorney General Pam Bondi but it was a lawsuit against the clemency board itself. Florida's Sunshine Law does in general apply to meetings of the governor and Cabinet. (Clemency records are confidential, but there has not been an assertion that the board can meet in private.)

The state's solicitor general _ who works for Bondi _ filed the appeal and the stay request even though there was never a meeting of the clemency board to discuss or vote on what to do in the wake of the initial ruling.

And the state officials who sit on the clemency board have not given a lot of information on how this happened.

When first asked, Whitney Ray, a spokesman for Bondi said that "given the gravity of this issue, a decision to appeal was never in question."

Ok, but again - the solicitor general is an attorney who was working on behalf of the clemency board. Usually attorneys must confer with their clients before proceeding with major action such an an appeal.

During a public availability, Bondi herself refused to answer a question on the decision to appeal. She said that "we're not going to talk about pending litigation."

The press offices for both Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis and Putnam also did not yield much information on the decision to appeal. Putnam's spokeswoman, Jennifer Meale, said that their office was "notified of the decision to appeal." Patronis's office said the CFO was "kept informed" by communication between the solicitor general and the general counsel for Patronis.

So in both instances neither official said they made an affirmative decision to appeal.

The only office to finally bring some light to the situation was Scott's office. John Tupps, a spokesman for Scott, said that the general counsel for the governor conferred with the solicitor general about the need for appeal.

And the governor's office maintains that such a move was legal even though it was done behind closed doors. They point to a 1978 case that is still cited in the Sunshine Manual that said it was ok for an attorney to confer with members of a board in reaching a decision to appeal.

But even if Scott and Bondi agreed to an appeal that's still just two out of four clemency board members.

Worth pointing out as well: Scott and the Cabinet were sued in 2015 for sidestepping the Sunshine Law because of the way then Florida Department of Law Enforcement Commissioner Gerald Bailey was dismissed since he worked for all four officials not just the governor. In the end the case was settled, but only after the state agreed to pay attorney fees in the case and that senior staff and aides participate in mandatory Sunshine Law training.

Barbara Petersen of the First Amendment Foundation said that whole situation "doesn't pass the sniff test" and questions if the other members of the board have yielded all legal decisions to Scott's office.

One Democratic candidate for governor opposed to Florida's current system of handing rights restoration is also asking questions.

Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum last week filed a public records request that asked for any records related to the decision to appeal and file other legal motions in the case. In his letter seeking the records Gillum states "it is unclear the legality of whether the Solicitor General, at the discretion of the Governor, can decide to file a motion, or a series of motions, on behalf of all the Cabinet officers. Floridians deserve to know how their Cabinet officers agreed to a legal decision on behalf of the state of Florida." 

5 biggest questions of the 2018 session

Here we are again: Following a year that included a civil war among Republicans that sparked a special session and ended with a sexual misconduct scandal that scuttled the political career of Sen. Jack Latvala the GOP-controlled Legislature returns to Tallahassee for what could be another bumpy ride.

In no particular order, here are the five biggest questions of the 2018 session.

1. Is there more turmoil to come? The decision by Latvala to resign last month following a devastating investigative report into his conduct capped off a tumultuous year, especially in the Senate. Three senators ultimately resigned in an off-election year following news accounts of their behavior.

The House was not immune from drama either as one Democratic House member resigned amid an investigation into her residency. Other GOP House members quit as well, citing the top-down management style of House Speaker Richard Corcoran.

The question remains: Are there more secrets to spill out into the open from the confines of the members-only Governors Club and the other places in Tallahassee that normally remain hidden from public view?

There is a constant buzz of rumors and innuendo and whispered allegations that this legislator is next, or that other relationships will be exposed to scrutiny. The Florida Department of Law Enforcement continues to investigate Latvala over an allegation uncovered by the Senate investigation that suggests he may offered legislative action in exchange for sexual favors. (For his part, Latvala continues to deny wrongdoing.)

Then there's the fear that Latvala - who continues to sit on a large amount of cash into political accounts he controls - will proceed to use that money to go after those who came after him. There is an expectation that the entire scandal will eventually lead to lawsuits where even more secrets could be exposed.

This constant fear of drama feeds into an uneasy atmosphere that now hangs over Tallahassee because those that run this town don't like their secrets getting out.

 2. Will political ambitions interfere with a smooth session? In many election years, there is a tendency for sessions to run quickly and smoothly as legislators head to the exits in order to raise money for looming campaigns.

This year may not be the norm.

Gov. Rick Scott, of course, is expected to run for U.S. Senate. Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam is running for governor. Corcoran is expected to run for governor. Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis is running for a full four-year term after Scott appointed him to the post last year. There are legislators seeking to replace Putnam and Attorney General Pam Bondi.

The question is how whether these colliding campaigns will spill into the legislative arena and derail things.

One important thing to remember - Corcoran can't raise money during session, but his power could wane once the 2018 session is wrapped up and a budget is on Scott's desk. That means some special interests may stop giving him money once everything is finished.

So any type of blow-up, anything that could prevent legislators from passing a budget could theoretically help him. Here's the thought: Session is earlier this year, so in reality legislators could pass a budget in early May and it would not cause any disruption.

Under this theory, legislators adjourn for several weeks - meaning the cash could resume flowing into campaign accounts.

That's not saying it would happen, but there are several issues, including whether or not to use a rise in local property taxes to pay for schools, that could easily trigger a standoff and at the time help those seeking higher office.

 3. Does Gov. Rick Scott have an easier time getting the Legislature to help him this year?

During his entire time in office the multi-millionaire businessman has had a topsy turvy with members of his own party. The governor even today likes to remind people that when he ran for governor in 2010 no one in the GOP establishment endorsed him. During an interview just last week, Scott noted that Corcoran was expected to run this year and added - "It's a totally different race from mine. Everyone had endorsed my opponent."

Last year amid a struggle over Scott's push for economic incentives and money for Visit Florida the governor went after House Republicans. He aired television ads and he visited legislators districts where he called them out by name for failing to vote with him.

After reaching a deal with Corcoran last summer that resulted in a final budget deal, his fellow Republicans have been much respectful. A recent video posted on the House website was effusive with praise about Scott's handling of Hurricane Irma.

Still Scott's agenda isn't an easy sell. His budget recommendations are viewed as too optimistic and don't reflect the state's tightening financial situation. His push to rely on a rise in local property values to help pay for a hike in school funding has already been declared dead on arrival by Corcoran. Business interests were disappointed that Scott's tax cut package was aimed directly at consumers.

In 2014, then House Speaker Will Weatherford helped muscle through legislation that helped Scott in his re-election year. But that is an eternity ago. Since then Scott has stopped raising money for the Republican Party of Florida and there has been a string of blow-ups. Do legislators remember? Or do they decide in the end they need to help the governor?

4. Will Senate President Joe Negron finally win approval for his higher education overhaul?

A lot of time and energy will be spent this session on special interest battles, but probably some of the most substantive policy issues will be the education measures being pursued by legislative leaders.

Last year Negron pursued a substantive higher education overhaul that contained a major boost in college scholarships for the state's highest performing students. Scott vetoed it, citing concerns from college presidents and others who didn't like some of the restrictions on institutions that used to be called community colleges.

The proposals are back this year (although right now in separate bills) and the Senate has expanded the financial aid portion even further. The legislation dealing with the state college system continues to draw flak from college presidents. (Reminder - the state university system and state college system operate totally separate. They are funded differently and controlled by different entities. They do not work in tandem. The two have had back and forth tug-of-war for years and calls to have a cohesive system has been sidestepped and ignored.)

Some House Republicans have already begun to raise questions about the higher education proposals. One possible scenario is that the House trades approval for Senate approval of House priorities, including a new voucher proposal pushed by Corcoran that would allow students who are bullied to transfer to a private school. The bigger question is whether Scott - who has had his own clashes with universities - will ultimately go along with the revamped proposal.

5. Will local governments lose even more control this year?

For years, the GOP-controlled Legislature has railed against Washington D.C. and the mandates placed on states by the federal government. Yet at the same time there has been fight after fight in the halls of the state Capitol over whether to block local governments from all sorts of regulations ranging from the use of plastic bags to lawn fertilizer.

Corcoran last year argued that the Legislature is the closest to the people and that's why it has a legitimate role in providing oversight over local affairs and blocking local governments from taking certain actions.

This session will likely be consumed with a series of skirmishes in this same arena, starting with the House bill to go after  "sanctuary cities" that do not cooperate with federal authorities on immigration enforcement. (It's been noted that right now no cities in Florida fit this description.) The House is expected to pass the bill later week.

There are bills filed dealing with everything from local tree ordinances to regulation of short-term rentals to more oversight for local tourism councils and a ban on the use of tax money for pro stadiums.

Get ready to rumble.

Out of the house and into a mansion?...And other Tallahassee bubble news

Inside the Tallahassee bubble news....

Richard Corcoran's out of the house and into a mansion?....Make of this what you will, but during the middle of this year's session House Speaker Richard Corcoran sold his Tallahassee house.

Property records show that Corcoran and his wife Anne Corcoran sold their 2,400 square house near Capital City Country Club on March 15 of this year. One of the buyers, Scott Shamp, was recently named interim dean for the Florida State College of Fine Arts.

The Corcorans sold their home for $363,800 after having bought it September 2014 for $325,000. They bought the home at the time from John Sebree, who had been a senior vice president for the Florida Association of Realtors and a lobbyist, but Sebree had left the state to become CEO for the Missouri Realtors.

Sebree first bought the house in 2003 and paid $329,900 - which was before the Great Recession and a downturn in property values.

When asked about it, Corcoran said he spent the rest of session renting a house near downtown that is also near homes occupied by other high-ranking House Republicans including Rep. Jose Oliva. He said he has a lease that will get him through the next year and a half.

Worth pondering: By selling his house now, Corcoran doesn't have to worry about it after the 2018 session when he may - or may not - be pursuing a bid for governor. Corcoran is being forced to leave the Florida Legislature next year due to term limits so he would have needed to do something with the house anyway. Of course one of the perks of becoming governor is that the winner gets to move into a mansion located just up the road from the state Capitol.

Bill watching and the governor's options...In most years, Memorial Day weekend is sort of the end of the legislative season. By this time school is about to end around the state, and the governor has usually acted on a new state budget.

But as we have seen this isn't an ordinary year as Gov. Rick Scott and Republicans continue their all out public feud over spending and legislative priorities (or as Corcoran puts it - a fight for the soul of the party.)

This leaves things in a bit of dizzying state that may be a bit hard to follow, but this is an attempt to walk through it all...

Even though the new fiscal year starts July 1, the Legislature has yet to deliver the $82.4 billion appropriations act to Scott. Or many of the other significant bills (including HB 7069) that actually boost state spending to more than $83 billion for the coming year. (The list does not include the Lake Okeechobee bill which Scott has already signed.)

Florida's Constitution requires that once a bill is officially presented (which means it's been enrolled and the bill jacket has been signed by the two presiding officers, the House clerk and the Senate secretary and then delivered) the governor has 15 days to veto the bill, sign the bill or allow the bill to become law without his signature.

Since Scott became governor in 2011 the longest the Legislature waited to deliver the budget after passing it was in 2012 when it took 28 days. But that was a redistricting year so legislators went into session early. They actually delivered it in early April. So far this year it's been 16 days.

An important thing to remember: There is nothing in law that dictates when the Legislature must deliver a bill to the governor.

Usually there is some level of coordination where legislative staff check with the governor's office to find out if  his staff is ready to act. Sometimes this is also done to accommodate public bill signings to drum up publicity.

Normally there isn't a lot of intrigue here, but legislators passed a budget that ripped to shreds Scott's legislative agenda and ignored his requests. Scott has continued after session to tongue-lash his fellow Republicans for taking actions _ including their refusal to set aside money for business incentives and their decision to slash funding for the state's tourism marketing agency _that the governor says will cost jobs. He has also chided the GOP-controlled Legislature for crafting a budget largely in secret.

Scott has publicly thrown out the possibility he may veto the entire budget to register his displeasure. He could also just use his veto pen to wipe out individual spending items in the state budget.

Meanwhile, school district officials, citing the relative low per-pupil increase contained in this year's budget, have called on Scott to veto the main appropriation that goes to public schools.

If Scott vetoes the budget - or limits it to just the schools line item (known officially as the Florida Education Finance Program, or FEFP and which totals nearly $8 billion in state money) it would trigger the need for a special session.

That's why there's a level of anxiety building about the timeline and the governor's possible actions because time is running out as summer bears down. There's also a threat of a government shutdown if things are unresolved by July 1, although it would be likely that Scott would declare an emergency and use his emergency powers to authorize state spending.

Another layer of complexity: Legislators could give Scott the budget very soon - but they could hold back on other key bills including HB 7069 - the education train that has drawn fierce criticism and support across the education spectrum. That's important because that bill includes more than $400 million - including money for the contentious Schools of Hope charter school proposal and money for teacher bonuses. (Another important thing to remember - nothing requires legislators to place all spending in one bill.)

So you have a scenario where legislators could give the main budget today - but then wait until later to give the education bill.

Legislators could argue they can't spend any of the money tied to other bills if Scott ordered them into a special session. Legislators could also play their own waiting game and hold back the budget altogether in an effort to run out the clock. Some legal experts have argued that lawmakers must deliver bills by the effective date (the date a bill becomes law if signed by governor), but again this is uncharted legal territory and hasn't really been tested in a court.

Of course nothing stops the governor from saying now - I will veto the budget, or I will veto the schools portion - and issuing a order that tells legislators when they are returning to Tallahassee.

The risk is that the governor could suffer a veto override - which could be an embarrassment for Scott and a sign that he is lame duck with more than a year left in his term.

But Scott has a tad more leverage than usual because as noted legislators broke up some key items into several bills. He's already signed the Lake O bill - which is a top priority for Senate President Joe Negron.

Scott could also sign Negron's higher education overhaul, the separate bill that authorized state worker pay raises (a top priority for Sen. Jack Latvala) and then rally Democrats to his side by vetoing HB 7069, which is a top priority for Corcoran but which has been roundly criticized by Democrats, the state's teacher union and school superintendents. (One last scenario is that Scott could just veto the money included in HB 7069 and leave the bill intact.)

A hidden veto-proof budget item?...Much has been made this year by legislative leaders about how transparent the budget process was - and how they would take steps to make sure individual spending items were listed in the main appropriations act so that everyone would know that they were there and that the governor would have the opportunity to veto them.

Well....

That's not what happened with one of the top priorities of Negron.

The Legislature passed a sweeping higher education bill (SB 374) that calls for the creation of a new programs designed to help universities hire more top-flight faculty in an effort to boost their national reputations. There's also an effort to boost the graduate and professional schools at Florida's public universities as well.

In all legislators agreed to put aside more than $120 million for these two programs.

But despite it being a new program the funding isn't broken out anywhere - nor is there a separate listing spelling out how much each university will receive. Instead all that money got included in the giant $4.06 billion main line item for universities.

If you want to find out how much each school got, it's included in a spreadsheet drawn by Senate staff.

When asked if this violated new transparency budget rules, Katie Betta, a spokeswoman for Negron said: "These are statewide programs for the university system, not local funding initiatives."

Of course by doing it this way the only way Scott is left with limited options: He could veto the entire university budget line item, which would also trigger the need for a special session. Or he could veto the stand-alone bill, meaning there is no authorization for the increased spending. Or lastly - Scott could challenge the spending on the two programs by arguing there's nothing that legally allows the universities to access the money.

Even though the Senate staff has prepared a worksheet that details how it works - so-called budget "work papers" are not legally binding according to the Florida Supreme Court.

Just add this to ongoing intrigue at the state Capitol at the weeks ahead.

 

Dispatches from the Capitol: "If we are going to win this year, it's because of Sen. Jack Latvala."

It's no secret that Sen. Jack Latvala - the Pinellas County Republican who is now the Senate budget chief - has had up and down relationships with a lot of people in the political process, including the current governor.

But Latvala (shown here campaigning for Gov. Rick Scott in 2014) is now becoming more and more aligned with Scott in his ongoing feud with House Republicans over the fate of the state's tourism marketing program and the state's economic development agency.

Latvala has already sounded off that he does not agree with the House approach - which is to completely eliminate Enterprise Florida and place tight restrictions on Visit Florida. This ongoing disagreement threatens to prevent the GOP-controlled Legislature from passing a new state budget.

But it was still a tad surprising to see Scott - caught on camera last week - showering Latvala with effusive praise. (Assuming this was doing during Scott's visit to the Florida Restaurant and Lodging Association.)

"If we're going to win this year, it's because of Sen Jack Latvala,'' Scott said. "He's going to stand with us all the way through. And he’s going to take a lot of arrows for doing it. I’m going to tell you he’s got broad shoulders and he can do it."

Contrast that from just one day earlier where during an event held at a Tallahassee manufacturing plant Scott castigated Republican State. Rep. Halsey Beshears, a Monticello Republican, while praising two Tallahassee Democrats for voting against the House bills that target Enterprise Florida and Visit Florida. It's been part of a Scott strategy in recent weeks to call-out House Republican members by name in front of local television cameras.

Regardless of the philosophical debate underlying business incentives and aiding corporations and whether it helps create jobs - a debate that unites House Republicans with progressive Democrats - the real story playing out amid this feud is that Florida's Republican structure is deeply divided and there's no signs that's going to change anytime soon.

Other governors have had their differences with members of their own party - i.e. then-Gov. Jeb Bush in a fierce struggle with Senate Republicans over medical malpractice laws - but Bush wasn't running political ads that went after legislators responsible for helping him carry out his agenda. Nor was Bush refusing to raise money to help the Republican Party of Florida. (Note - Scott stopped raising money for the RPOF ahead of the 2016 elections - leaving that task primarily to House Republicans including House Speaker Richard Corcoran.)

But that's where we are now.

And this rift is already having reverberations as we head into the 2018 elections still seemingly so far away.

Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam - who has his own share of dust-ups with Scott - was by Scott's side this week as Scott held a public rally in the Capitol where he again criticized the House approach. Putnam is of course seen as a likely candidate for governor, but the speculation has been that Scott wants someone else to follow him into the governor's mansion. (As in someone with a business background...) Despite all that, Putnam was with Scott this week.

So now we have two potential candidates for governor - Latvala and Putnam - sticking up for the governor, while another potential candidate for governor - Corcoran - is not.

Of course one could say, what does it matter?

Scott will likely run for U.S. Senate and has been known to avoid getting involved in primaries. Yeah, but...Scott has a good relationship with President Donald Trump. Scott is also now in a leadership position with the Republican Governors Association, the entity responsible for helping Republicans across the nation. Scott polls well among GOP voters in the state and if he chose to get involved in a primary it could have an impact.

Corcoran in the end could decide not to run for governor, or he could mount a fierce campaign from the right where he goes after Putnam and others as being part of the corrupt process he says now controls Tallahassee.

But before all that happens - we will have to see who - in the words of Gov. Scott will "win" the debate over Enterprise Florida and Visit Florida.

That may say a lot about who has a winning political future.

The elephant in the room for Florida Republicans

As the Republican National Convention kicks off this coming week the official word is that everything is a-o.k. with Florida Republicans.

Despite that fact that many of the state's 99 Florida delegates supported other candidates ahead of the primaries none of them have been wishing out loud that someone else besides Donald Trump was the presumptive GOP nominee. No talk of blocking delegates from attending or lawsuits.

"The Florida delegation is totally united,'' said Republican Party of Florida Chairman Blaise Ingoglia on CNN on Saturday.

Yet while the delegation will certainly follow the rules and give all 99 Florida votes to Trump a lot of questions remain about the state of the party and the fact that top Republicans in the state are divided into factions.

There's a whole long list of things to consider (including the fact that former Gov. Jeb Bush and his staunchest supporters aren't on board with Trump) but let's just start with the strange situation with the Republican primary for U.S. Senate after incumbent U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio went back on his oft-repeated promise to not to run for election.

Most of the other GOP candidates jumped out once Rubio changed his mind. But Manatee County homebuilder and political newcomer Carlos Beruff didn't. And that was just fine with GOP governor Rick Scott, who came close to endorsing Beruff over Rubio (seen here campaigning for Scott's re-election.) (Also worth noting: Rubio has not been endorsed by Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi, who has a speaking slot at the convention.)

Yet at the same time - Scott's own lieutenant governor Carlos Lopez-Cantera is now actively campaigning for his good friend Rubio and against Beruff.

Beruff this past week went on Florida airwaves with an ad that smacked Rubio, saying he wasn't backing Trump and suggested it had to do with Rubio' s stance on immigration. Lopez-Cantera was the first to fire back by citing Beruff's decision to back Charlie Crist in the 2010 U.S. Senate race (even after Crist had switched from being a Republican to being an independent.) 

"He’s a Crist insider who values political opportunity over Florida’s conservative principles,'' Lopez-Cantera said in a statement distributed by the Rubio campaign.

Then a Super PAC supporting Rubio said it was going up with its own ad to go after Beruff.

Adding to this mix was the suggestion - although knocked down by the Beruff campaign - that maybe, just maybe Beruff was staying in the race against Rubio not to win - but to build his name recognition in a possible bid for governor in 2018.

Scott, talking to one of his former top aides, even chimed in and said that "my experience with Carlos is, whatever he puts his mind to, he’s going to be successful. Whether that’s trying to make sure his customers get what they want, or anything else, Carlos will be successful.”

For those not completely immersed in inside Capitol Circle talk - that's a shot at the presumed campaign of Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam. The icy relationship between Putnam and Scott goes back years. You can bet there are people whispering to Putnam that he needs to be prepared so that he isn't "McCollumed" - a reference to the fact that then Attorney General Bill McCullom was considered a shoo-in for the GOP nomination for governor in 2010 until Scott jumped in at the last minute and self-funded his campaign.

Then there's the whole money thing for all Republicans.

Despite having no announced plans beyond 2018, Scott keeps raising money for his Let's Get to Work political committee and not the Republican Party of Florida as part of the continued fallout after Ingoglia won the chairmanship back in early 2015 over Scott's own handpicked candidate.

Scott has raised more than $1.8 million so far this year for his committee of which he transferred $95,000 back in January to the party. Yes there's a persistent rumor that Scott may run for U.S. Senate, but it's important to point out under campaign finance laws that Scott can't directly use this money - which is from corporate donations - for a federal race.

Now it's true that the Republican National Committee has put in money into the state that has been used to hire ground staff, but what message does it send to donors and others that the state's leading Republican isn't helping out his own party that much?

Lots of political insiders in Tallahassee keep grumbling about the situation and grumbling whether or not Scott's recalcitrance is diverting resources that could at least pay for certain types of party expenses. And remember the Beruff situation? That could increase pressure on Putnam to raise more money for his political committee. (Putnam did give the state party a $25,000 check in June.)

Of course none of this is totally surprising given the awkward relationship Scott has had since he knocked off McCollum even though the veteran politician had support from many establishment Republicans. In the background are GOP consultants with competing agendas and competing candidates ahead of the 2018 elections.

Maybe it's not a big problem.

After all Florida's Democrats continue to have their own history of problems come election time and the rise-and-fall of presidential campaigns has usually been more dependent on the the actual campaigns and not the state party. (There's still bad blood between state operatives and the campaign of 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney as state people contended Romney's folks ignored their advice ahead of a narrow loss to President Barack Obama.)

But after close to 20 years of GOP domination it's still out of character to see so many fault lines and shifting loyalties.

Add it all up and it could matter in a swing state where only a few thousand  - or few hundred ballots - can make a difference in the leader of the free world.

What will Rick Scott version 5.0 look like?

This Friday another era comes to a close for Florida Gov. Rick Scott.

That's when Melissa Sellers will give way to Kim McDougal (both pictured left) as McDougal takes on the sometimes overwhelming job as chief of staff for Scott.

Sellers, who once worked for former Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, is remaining in Tallahassee and opening her own consulting firm.

This much is clear: McDougal and Sellers have different backgrounds, different resumes and different styles. McDougal is a veteran state employee who has spent most of her career focused on education and only recently made a deep dive into the political realm.

The big change for her came in 2014 when she went on leave from her job in the governor's office as an education analyst to help with Scott's re-election campaign. McDougal helped draw up Scott's education platform for his campaign but she was deeply involved with Scott's tightrope walk on how to deal with Common Core.

One of McDougal's jobs that summer was to meet with groups deeply opposed to Common Core, which still remain embedded in the standards that Florida is using in its public schools. McDougal's outreach was successful enough to win an endorsement from one of the groups on the eve of the election. (Which was probably important in a contest decided by just 64,000 votes out of 6 million cast.)

Because of her lengthy experience the expectation is that McDougal will retain her oversight of education matters for Scott. And that probably means no dramatic swings away from current policies or a need to make any big personnel changes. (Scott has been a pretty firm supporter of Education Commissioner Pam Stewart.)

Word is that after the departures of Sellers and General Counsel Tim Cerio other people working in the governor's office - including Deputy Chief of Staff (and former Louisiana resident) Frank Collins will remain in their same roles.

But the real big question for Capitol insiders - and ultimately Floridians - is whether or not Gov. Scott will pivot once again with a new chief of staff in place.

Because one of the most interesting aspects of Scott's five-plus years in office is that he has been willing to alter his style, his interactions and sometimes even his policies based on the input from those closest to him at the time.

There are those who speculate that Sellers will remain a trusted voice and may be doing a warm up routine for a potential 2018 U.S. Senate run for Scott. (Although there is a division of opinion about this as well.)

Another maxim, however, is that "no one gets out of Scott World alive." This means that once someone is removed from the orbit of influence it's impossible to get back in. (Key example: Sellers was Scott's campaign manager during a time when he was focused on the campaign. After the re-election, he installed her in as chief of staff in place of Adam Hollingsworth. Word is that Hollingsworth didn't know this was coming.)

Going all the way back to the start there are clear lines of demarcation for Scott when one person leaves and another steps in.

His first few months in 2011 Scott was combative with the press, with the Legislature and came on strong with a Tea Party influenced agenda that including killing high speed rail between Tampa and Orlando. Lobbyists were barred from meeting with Scott and top governor's office staff. The chief of staff at the time was officially Mike Prendergast, but the view is that the person who had the most influence at the time was his senior adviser Mary Anne Carter. Carter was a complete outsider to Tallahassee and once she left her position she didn't hang around in town.

But Prendergast (and Carter) were followed by Steve MacNamara, a long-time veteran of the Tallahassee scene who has been a university professor, a lobbyist and held stints as the chief of staff for two legislative leaders. It was MacNamara who tried to ease tensions with the press and tried to steer Scott into a more cooperative relationship with the Legislature. The blanket ban on lobbyists was lifted. Suddenly Scott was dressing more informally and holding lengthy sessions with the media in the governor's office. Scott visited newspaper editorial boards and scheduled work days to interact with normal Floridians.

MacNamara, however, departed in the summer of 2012 amid a series of articles detailing his role in contracts and his interactions with agencies. (Later it would be revealed in emails that MacNamara's influence with Scott was severely tested during the 2012 session of the Florida Legislature. Emails showed that MacNamara tried in vain to get the governor to veto a bill creating Florida Polytechnic University while encouraging him to approve a bill that would have given additional tuition raising power to University of Florida and Florida State University.)

He was followed by Hollingsworth, whose main job was to figure out how to rehabilitate Scott in such a way that he would have a shot at getting re-elected even though poll numbers suggested it was near impossible task. Hollingsworth was seen as someone who would quickly urge Scott to deal with potential problems and embarrassments heading into the 2014 elections. Former Lt. Gov. Jennifer Carroll has said it was Hollingsworth who showed up to tell her that the governor wanted to resign following her questioning by law-enforcement authorities investigating a veterans charity engaged in what was deemed to be illegal gambling. (The charity had hired Carroll before she ran with Scott but no charges were ever brought against her.)

Hollingsworth was at the helm during one of Scott's most notable moments during his first term: His complete 180-degree turn on Medicaid expansion and the Affordable Care Act pushed by President Barack Obama. Even today, it remains somewhat remarkable that Scott - who railed against Obamacare and even had run television ads attacking it - would come out publicly in favor of accepting billions in federal aid to expand who was eligible for Medicaid. (Under Sellers - and after his re-election - Scott would reverse course again and side with the Florida House in 2015 in opposition to Medicaid expansion.)

Other pivots, not as dramatic, also occurred such as Scott's decision to back in-state tuition rates for the children of illegal immigrants despite winning election in a 2010 platform that promised support for a crackdown on illegal immigration.

Starting under Hollingsworth (who brought on Sellers to serve as communications director) and continuing ever since she took over, Scott returned to limiting interactions with the press in Tallahassee. He cut down on appearances on conservative radio stations and instead shifted to appearances on national television outlets. And a combative side of Scott returned. He sued the federal government over Medicaid funding and he ordered an investigation of Planned Parenthood clinics last summer. Scott has ratcheted back up his criticisms of Obama. His push to get rid of the Florida Department of Law Enforcement Commissioner led to allegations, apologies and lawsuits.

Yet ever since his re-election and Sellers ascension to chief of staff Scott has had a difficult time with his fellow Republicans in the Legislature and has had trouble winning passage of his priorities. There's lots of finger-pointing as to who is to blame (is it staff? Is it Scott's decision to not raise money for the state party? Is it ideologues in the House?) but the net result is that his two top priorities this year, including a $250 million business incentive pool, were largely ignored by legislators. There are some who say that Scott is isolated from those in the GOP and that has contributed to the problem.

But this month Scott did make a tactical decision to limit his losses. Instead of drawing out the battle he signed this year's state budget and did not engage in the long line of budget vetoes that some lawmakers had been expecting. (Senate budget chairman Tom Lee predicted $500 million in vetoes at one point and Scott did roughly half that.) Talk of possible veto overrides has disappeared and the good thing for Scott is that legislators probably won't return to the Capitol until November.

The governor still has a tremendous amount of time left in his second term in office so there's plenty of time for him to repair relations if he wants to. By tapping McDougal he has found someone who has a good idea about how the capital works - but is less familiar with the political ramifications of every decision that the governor makes.

Scott of course will continue to place a large part of his focus on the state's economy and job creation since it's the message that has helped him in two elections (and remains a top concern for most Floridians.)

But will he take a more pragmatic approach on dealing with the Legislature, dealing with the press, and figuring out what to do in the myriad of issues that confront him on a daily basis? For example: One of the less touched on elements of Sellers time as chief of staff is that Scott brought in Julie Jones to run the Department of Corrections. While problems remains in the state's troubled prison agency, there are signs that Jones has tried to reform the department (although she too lost out this session on getting the Legislature to bless all of here proposed changes.)

So the question is will Scott change direction yet again with McDougal now on board?

Will the next two and a half years be relatively quiet and will the governor and McDougal have a caretaker attitude, or will there be new initiatives, new promises, and new conflicts with the two incoming legislative leaders? The next House speaker - Richard Corcoran - has a lengthy list of contentious items he wants to tackle that could prove challenging for Scott.

Will Scott - who never had been a politician until running for governor - present Floridians with another version of himself? Or will he stick to what he's given voters so far?

Which lobbyist will win the jackpot with the Florida Lottery?

Another installment on inside the Tallahassee bubble news....

Putnam or Scott?....Every one is aware that Gov. Rick Scott has been raising money for his own political committee _ Let's Get to Work_ as opposed to raising money for the state Republican Party this year.

But a closer look shows that contributions shows a bit of slowdown in the last three months. His largest contribution during that period hasn't been any actual cash but a large in-kind donation courtesy of Walt Disney World that he got from them in order to hold his economic growth summit with presidential contenders.

So has anything changed?

Yes, Meredith O'Rourke, one of the state's most sought after GOP fundraisers, is no longer working on behalf of the governor.

O'Rourke, who was in Naples celebrating when Scott defeated Charlie Crist last November, stopped work for Scott sometime in April.

Campaign finance records show that O'Rourke's company took its last payment for $25,000 from Let's Get to Work on April 17.

So what led to her departure?

Sources close to O'Rourke say that Scott gave her an ultimatum: Either raise money for me, or raise money for Adam Putnam, a likely contender for governor in 2018. This is apparently not the first time that Scott had asked O'Rourke to make this choice. But this time around O'Rourke chose Putnam.

Scott is widely rumored to be considering running for U.S. Senate in 2018. He has steadfastly brushed aside any questions about it, saying that he is focused on his job as governor. Putnam for his part has also brushed aside any questions about his intentions three years from now.

Still this is another sign of the gulf that exists between Scott, the mega-millionaire maverick who took on the GOP establishment, and Putnam, the native Floridian with long-time connections who has been steadily moving up the political ladder. 

The animus between Scott and Putnam dates all the way back to 2011 when Scott insiders viewed Putnam as a potential primary rival in 2014. Scott repeatedly has threatened to veto Putnam's top legislative priorities. This year he vetoed budget items Putnam wanted even after Putnam sought a meeting to discuss why they were important. Putnam's office has said the Scott administration never responded to their request before issuing the vetoes.

Putnam also questioned the forced ouster of former Florida Department of Law Enforcement Commissioner Gerald Bailey by the Scott administration and went so far as to have phone conversations with Bailey about his departure afterwards.

Jackpot time at the Florida Lottery...Of course one important advantage that the Scott administration continues to have is that state agencies with huge budgets are responsible for doling out large contracts. This attracts high-profile lobbyists who themselves can raise a lot of money for potential candidates.

And right now some of the bigger contracts up for bid are at the Florida Lottery.

This includes a contract for the department's lottery online games that is at least worth $300 million over the next 10 years. (This contract includes the machines used to issue tickets for games such as Powerball and Mega Millions as well as the instant ticket vending machines.)

And it's already had some interesting twists and turns.

The existing contract with lottery operator Gtech was scheduled to expire at the end of September 2015. The agency put the contract out to bid in March 2014 - in the middle of a heated election year - and then....nothing.

In late January, the department issued a one-page announcement that it was rejecting the bids from Gtech, as well as Scientific Games International and Premier Lotteries Florida.

Why did it do this? Lottery officials won't say, other than department officials concluded it was "in the best interest" to reject them. So they started all over again and issued another invitation to negotiate in March of this year.

But with the looming expiration of the existing contract the department on June 16 extended the existing contract with Gtech. The operator will continue to get paid (largely under the current terms of its $333 million contract) until March 2017 or until a new vendor is selected.

Gtech is represented by lobbyists with deep connections to Scott, including Brian Ballard and his team as well as long-time Scott friend and lobbyist Bill Rubin. (Worth noting: Ballard's representation of Gtech predates Scott but we also know Ballard raised a lot of money for the governor.)

Scientific Games was represented by well-known Tallahassee figures Jim Magill and Mac Stipanovich until June 16 - the same day that Gtech got its extension. Right now the only listed executive branch lobbyist for the company is former Lottery Secretary David Griffin.

The third vendor that bid on the lottery contract is linked to a company called Camelot Global Services, which is represented by lobbyists at the firm of Southern Strategy Group, one of the more successful firms in town.

So it will be interesting to see who eventually winds up winning the lucrative online system contract.

But that's not the only contract worth watching.

Another major contract is the Lottery advertising contract in which a firm gets millions to manage the state's ad campaign. The last time the contract was up it sparked a bid protest after the department awarded a $100 million contract (which includes money for ad placements) to St. John & Partners.

The current contract - which initially ran for three years and was renewed twice for another three years - is due to expire at the end of August.

The bid for a new contract was released in June and it already appears to be drawing fire with complaints reaching all the way up to Scott's office.

Last week Deputy Chief of Staff Jeffery Woodburn directly emailed Lottery Secretary Cynthia O'Connell "in the interest of transparency" to tell her that Slater Bayliss, Nick Iarossi and Dan Russell had raised concerns with the governor's office over the ad contract.

Bayliss is a former aide to Jeb Bush who is a partner at The Advocacy Group at Cardenas Partners. Iarossi is another well-known lobbyist in town who has represented various gambling interests and a long list of other clients including Zimmerman Advertising (which lost out to St. John last time.) Russell is an attorney with the Jones Walker law firm and once worked as general counsel for the department.

The email from Woodburn to O'Connell doesn't include any instructions regarding whether the agency should change the bid.

But it does outline areas cited by the three lobbyists including desired qualifications, disclosure and ownership of reply contents and the staffing plan.

Concerns about the way the contract bid has also surfaced in the questions that were submitted by potential bidders to the Lottery.

The July 14 addendum to the bid documents shows that one vendor was concerned that the department wants bidders to spend "hundreds of hours" working on a presentation before they even know if they have been chosen as a finalist. "The current approach is very different from the standard practice in our industry,'' states the question (which does not identify the vendor that asked.)

In its response the department said it considered the question but left the bid requirements unchanged.

That same document also shows that another complaint is that the agency is requiring that people who would be responsible for managing the contract do the actual presentation and interviews with state officials. This means that senior managers at ad firms would be not be allowed to participate in the pitch to the Department of Lottery unless they planned to do the work. The department also refused to change this item as well.

Last week the department opened up the bids. Only four companies responded including St. John. Among those who did not participate this time was Zimmerman Advertising. The others who are vying for the contract are CommongroundMGS, PP+K, and Sapient.

The flurry of activity comes at a time when many key Republicans in the Legislature remain skeptical about the Lottery, including Senate President Andy Gardiner. O'Connell, who is a holdover from Scott's first term, is one of Scott's appointees who got caught up in the meltdown of this year's regular session when the Senate refused to confirm many of his choices.

She will be forced to step down next year if the Senate fails to confirm her for a second year in a row.

(This post has been updated to include the names of the four companies that have bid on the advertising contract.)

Mind-meld: Where President Obama and Gov. Rick Scott 100 percent agree

Here's a few recent statements that have been made in the last few weeks that come from two elected officials who hail from different parties and usually have very little in common.

1. "I believe that America is not a place where higher education is a privilege that is reserved for the few.  America needs to be a place where higher education has to be available for every single person who’s willing to strive for it, who’s willing to work for it."

2. "Students can spend their money better than government can. It should not require a federal loan and decades of debt for students to get a college degree. Price limits access – plain and simple."

3. "A college degree is the surest ticket to the middle class and beyond.  It’s the key to getting a good job that pays a good income.  And it offers a measure of security, because a college degree tells employers that you don’t just have one set of skills; that you’ve got the continuous capacity to learn new skills, which is going to be particularly important for your generation because the economy is going to churn and change in ways that none of us can even anticipate."

4. "If we are going to out-compete the world, the second thing we must do is make higher education more affordable....Just like any business, we should expect education to become more affordable each year, not more expensive."

The quotes above come from U.S. President Barack Obama during a recent appearance at Georgia Tech University and Florida Gov. Rick Scott during his State of the State speech earlier this month.

Scott. a Republican who got elected in part to a tea party wave in 2010, has waged two campaigns where a key part of both them was a constant barrage of criticism for the Democratic president.

Scott's entry into the political world, after all, started when the former health care executive began assailing Obama's health care overhaul. And Scott has not stopped there. He's hit Obama over a whole variety of issues since then.

But when it comes to college affordability the two sound remarkably similar even if their approaches are a tad different.

Scott, whose talking points usually include mentions of his poor upbringing that was changed by a brief stint in the military followed by college, has been very populist when it comes to the cost of college.

During his first term in office, Scott resisted tuition increases for undergraduates. And then he pushed to repeal a law _ which was widely supported by many Republicans at the time _ that gave Florida's universities the ability to raise tuition above levels approved by the Legislature. Scott even went so far as to label tuition hikes akin to tax hikes (which could give potential future GOP U.S. Senate candidates in Florida such as Jeff Atwater and Carlos Lopez-Cantera something to worry about.)

One of Scott's talking points during the 2014 campaign against his rival Charlie Crist was that Scott undid the tuition law approved while Crist was governor.

The move created big savings for those parents who had purchased pre-paid tuition plans because the plans had been been based on assumptions that tuition would keep increasing at a certain rate. In early March, it was announced that the number of pre-paid tuition plans that had been sold this year tripled, a fact that Scott highlighted.

But like Obama _ who confronts a GOP-led Congress resistant to many of his plans including a push to make community college free in the U.S. _ Scott's own push this year for college affordability appears in for a rough reception.

Scott, who will meet today with student body presidents to tout his proposal, wants the Florida Legislature to eliminate the sales tax on college textbooks, require more transparency about college costs and put in limits on tuition hikes charged by graduate schools.

The Senate bill, which contains all these proposals, has yet to get a hearing even though it is sponsored by Sen. Anitere Flores, a Republican from Miami. A House bill that contains the sales tax exemption for textbooks has also yet to be heard.

While Florida's university officials have not spoken out against Scott's proposals there hasn't been a rush from anyone to endorse them either.

Florida's Board of Governors _ the panel that oversees the state's public universities _ is currently looking at affordability and today Chancellor Marshall Criser III is expected to discuss the issue further.

But behind the scenes one of the concerns expressed about Scott's proposal to limit graduate tuition costs is that there is an argument that medical schools, law schools and other professional programs are supposed to be market driven and tied to supply and demand. (Discuss amongst yourself if this is a Republican idea.) Some of these programs are also some of the most expensive for universities to operate.

Scott entered the 2015 legislative session with a small list of priorities that includes tax cuts, a boost in school funding and the college affordability bill.

But right now it looks like Scott's quest to rein in college costs could be the part of his agenda that is least likely to pass.

So when Scott meets Obama on an airport tarmac in the future they may have something else they could talk about.

Is Adam Putnam winning the invisible primary for 2018?

The next governor's race is still a long, long way off.

But as the year has progressed _ and the dominoes appear to ready to fall due to the looming campaigns of U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and former Gov. Jeb Bush _ it appears that one Republican continues to position himself for the 2018 race for governor.

And that's Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam _ who was sworn into a second term this past January.

Of course it's no secret that most Tallahassee insider and Florida politicos think that the former legislator and U.S. congressman will run.

Putnam for his part won't answer the question.

"I'm entirely focused on being the best second term agriculture commissioner I can be and focusing on the issues at hand,'' Putnam said in a recent interview.

 But a series of recent events have made it clear that the path is getting clearer for Putnam to be the frontrunner.

1: The other Cabinet official seen as a potential rival _ Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater _ is angling for a run for the U.S. Senate. Atwater was spotted last week in DC with a well-known Republican consultant in tow.

Atwater's main target would be the seat held by Rubio should the Miami Republican do as expected and jump into the race for president. Rubio has said several times now that he will not seek re-election if he runs for president. That has led to a lot of anticipation that Republicans will quickly jump into action should Rubio make it official. But Atwater is also apparently willing to wait until 2018 and run for the seat now held by U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson if Rubio suddenly changes course.

2. While there is buzz among Tallahassee insiders that Rubio is really angling for the 2018 governor's race himself _ there are others who insist this is just idle gossip and that a presidential bid by Rubio would in fact be a serious endeavor regardless of whether former Gov. Bush makes his all-but-official presidential campaign official.

Putnam calls Rubio a "friend and an outstanding public servant" but for his part maintains that Rubio's plans won't affect his thinking.

"I think that when it’s time to make decisions about what you choose to run for it has to be based on your own convictions, and your own views and your own ability to do the best job you can in that role,'' Putnam said. "You can only control what you can control, you can’t worry about things you can’t control."

3. Putnam continues to distance himself from Gov. Rick Scott _ on events such as the ouster of Florida Department of Law Enforcement Commissioner Gerald Bailey _ while making sure he pursues his own set of policies that could help give him a record to run on.

The animus between Scott and Putnam dates all the way back to 2011 when Scott insiders viewed Putnam as a potential primary rival in 2014. Scott repeatedly has threatened to veto Putnam's top legislative priorities and even once suggested that he would veto chunks of the budget for Putnam's agency.

This hasn't stopped Putnam. Last year a reworking of the state's utility tax pushed by Putnam was folded into a bill including Scott's tax priorities after Scott said he didn't like Putnam's suggestion. This year it's Putnam emerging as a champion of the House water bill that has come under fire from some environmental groups.

During his first term Putnam got involved in the school lunch program and energy policy. Recently he began drawing attention to the idea of "food deserts" in the state.

Putnam said his efforts reflect a "21st Century model" for what an agriculture department should look like. But he also maintains that he can be a voice for issues that go beyond his office.

"Just as I have a role as the commissioner of agriculture, there’s also a role as a statewide elected official to identify issues of statewide import and to bring a solution,'' said Putnam.

4. Putnam also keeps making sure he says the right things (most of the time) to the conservatives in the GOP.

When Scott surprisingly switched his stance on Medicaid expansion it was Putnam who was one of the first to sharply criticize the governor. He hasn't been as vocal on immigration issues _ which isn't viewed in the same light by those in the agricultural industry as it is among some of the Republican faithful _ but he's spent time criticizing President Barack Obama and the federal government.

This past weekend in a speech Putnam gave to the Federalist Society he complained about problems in D.C. according to Sunshine State News (a Internet site that has shown a propensity to write about issues important to Florida's sugar companies - a key part of the state's agribusiness community.)

Putnam last week was also quick to criticize Obama's Keystone XL pipeline veto and said that the president "failed to meet the needs of the American people."

As a fifth generation Floridian Putnam has shown a deep knowledge of the state, its politics and its history. He is keenly aware of the fault lines. When asked about the Rodman Dam, for example, when discussing his water policy, he sidestepped the question.

That doesn't mean he will get a free pass especially from environmentalists who can remember when as a young legislator he pushed a bill dealing with public lands and water that then Attorney General Bob Butterworth blasted as a land grab. The financial dealings of his family has come under scrutiny as well.

Of course Cabinet agencies rarely get the same kind of scrutiny that is focused on the governor's office or the Legislature.

But that said _ absent a major blunder _ Putnam should be the one to watch on the GOP side for the next four years.