The Fine Print

5 biggest questions of the 2018 session

Here we are again: Following a year that included a civil war among Republicans that sparked a special session and ended with a sexual misconduct scandal that scuttled the political career of Sen. Jack Latvala the GOP-controlled Legislature returns to Tallahassee for what could be another bumpy ride.

In no particular order, here are the five biggest questions of the 2018 session.

1. Is there more turmoil to come? The decision by Latvala to resign last month following a devastating investigative report into his conduct capped off a tumultuous year, especially in the Senate. Three senators ultimately resigned in an off-election year following news accounts of their behavior.

The House was not immune from drama either as one Democratic House member resigned amid an investigation into her residency. Other GOP House members quit as well, citing the top-down management style of House Speaker Richard Corcoran.

The question remains: Are there more secrets to spill out into the open from the confines of the members-only Governors Club and the other places in Tallahassee that normally remain hidden from public view?

There is a constant buzz of rumors and innuendo and whispered allegations that this legislator is next, or that other relationships will be exposed to scrutiny. The Florida Department of Law Enforcement continues to investigate Latvala over an allegation uncovered by the Senate investigation that suggests he may offered legislative action in exchange for sexual favors. (For his part, Latvala continues to deny wrongdoing.)

Then there's the fear that Latvala - who continues to sit on a large amount of cash into political accounts he controls - will proceed to use that money to go after those who came after him. There is an expectation that the entire scandal will eventually lead to lawsuits where even more secrets could be exposed.

This constant fear of drama feeds into an uneasy atmosphere that now hangs over Tallahassee because those that run this town don't like their secrets getting out.

 2. Will political ambitions interfere with a smooth session? In many election years, there is a tendency for sessions to run quickly and smoothly as legislators head to the exits in order to raise money for looming campaigns.

This year may not be the norm.

Gov. Rick Scott, of course, is expected to run for U.S. Senate. Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam is running for governor. Corcoran is expected to run for governor. Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis is running for a full four-year term after Scott appointed him to the post last year. There are legislators seeking to replace Putnam and Attorney General Pam Bondi.

The question is how whether these colliding campaigns will spill into the legislative arena and derail things.

One important thing to remember - Corcoran can't raise money during session, but his power could wane once the 2018 session is wrapped up and a budget is on Scott's desk. That means some special interests may stop giving him money once everything is finished.

So any type of blow-up, anything that could prevent legislators from passing a budget could theoretically help him. Here's the thought: Session is earlier this year, so in reality legislators could pass a budget in early May and it would not cause any disruption.

Under this theory, legislators adjourn for several weeks - meaning the cash could resume flowing into campaign accounts.

That's not saying it would happen, but there are several issues, including whether or not to use a rise in local property taxes to pay for schools, that could easily trigger a standoff and at the time help those seeking higher office.

 3. Does Gov. Rick Scott have an easier time getting the Legislature to help him this year?

During his entire time in office the multi-millionaire businessman has had a topsy turvy with members of his own party. The governor even today likes to remind people that when he ran for governor in 2010 no one in the GOP establishment endorsed him. During an interview just last week, Scott noted that Corcoran was expected to run this year and added - "It's a totally different race from mine. Everyone had endorsed my opponent."

Last year amid a struggle over Scott's push for economic incentives and money for Visit Florida the governor went after House Republicans. He aired television ads and he visited legislators districts where he called them out by name for failing to vote with him.

After reaching a deal with Corcoran last summer that resulted in a final budget deal, his fellow Republicans have been much respectful. A recent video posted on the House website was effusive with praise about Scott's handling of Hurricane Irma.

Still Scott's agenda isn't an easy sell. His budget recommendations are viewed as too optimistic and don't reflect the state's tightening financial situation. His push to rely on a rise in local property values to help pay for a hike in school funding has already been declared dead on arrival by Corcoran. Business interests were disappointed that Scott's tax cut package was aimed directly at consumers.

In 2014, then House Speaker Will Weatherford helped muscle through legislation that helped Scott in his re-election year. But that is an eternity ago. Since then Scott has stopped raising money for the Republican Party of Florida and there has been a string of blow-ups. Do legislators remember? Or do they decide in the end they need to help the governor?

4. Will Senate President Joe Negron finally win approval for his higher education overhaul?

A lot of time and energy will be spent this session on special interest battles, but probably some of the most substantive policy issues will be the education measures being pursued by legislative leaders.

Last year Negron pursued a substantive higher education overhaul that contained a major boost in college scholarships for the state's highest performing students. Scott vetoed it, citing concerns from college presidents and others who didn't like some of the restrictions on institutions that used to be called community colleges.

The proposals are back this year (although right now in separate bills) and the Senate has expanded the financial aid portion even further. The legislation dealing with the state college system continues to draw flak from college presidents. (Reminder - the state university system and state college system operate totally separate. They are funded differently and controlled by different entities. They do not work in tandem. The two have had back and forth tug-of-war for years and calls to have a cohesive system has been sidestepped and ignored.)

Some House Republicans have already begun to raise questions about the higher education proposals. One possible scenario is that the House trades approval for Senate approval of House priorities, including a new voucher proposal pushed by Corcoran that would allow students who are bullied to transfer to a private school. The bigger question is whether Scott - who has had his own clashes with universities - will ultimately go along with the revamped proposal.

5. Will local governments lose even more control this year?

For years, the GOP-controlled Legislature has railed against Washington D.C. and the mandates placed on states by the federal government. Yet at the same time there has been fight after fight in the halls of the state Capitol over whether to block local governments from all sorts of regulations ranging from the use of plastic bags to lawn fertilizer.

Corcoran last year argued that the Legislature is the closest to the people and that's why it has a legitimate role in providing oversight over local affairs and blocking local governments from taking certain actions.

This session will likely be consumed with a series of skirmishes in this same arena, starting with the House bill to go after  "sanctuary cities" that do not cooperate with federal authorities on immigration enforcement. (It's been noted that right now no cities in Florida fit this description.) The House is expected to pass the bill later week.

There are bills filed dealing with everything from local tree ordinances to regulation of short-term rentals to more oversight for local tourism councils and a ban on the use of tax money for pro stadiums.

Get ready to rumble.

The money, gifts and trips edition

IIt's a special summertime money, gifts and trips edition of inside the Tallahassee bubble....

BOUND FOR FRANCE...As it happens every year when the humidity bears down oppressively on the Florida capital, many people in the state's political hierarchy are nowhere near North Florida.

Legislators of course have long gone back home. But the state Supreme Court is also on summer break, the Florida Cabinet is on hiatus until mid-August and Gov. Rick Scott's time in Tallahassee is likewise kept at a minimum (of course unless a serious storm threatens the state.)

One staple for legislators in the past has been visits to various conferences, including ones held by the National Conference of State Legislators or the American Legislative Exchange Council.

Many years these conferences are held in cooler and more pleasant environments than Florida. This year, NCSL is holding its annual legislative summit in Boston on Aug. 6 through Aug 9, while ALEC held its annual meeting last month in Denver.

Attendance to these events was usually higher back when legislative leaders routinely approved travel expenses for members. The tradition used to be that members would have one trip a year paid out of the House and Senate budgets.

That's not how it works anymore.

House Speaker Richard Corcoran allows members to pay for the trips out of their own district accounts, as opposed to having his office cover the expenses. (State law allows legislators to transfer unused campaign money into these accounts.)

"The speaker no longer approves travel for members but he is holding the members accountable if they are questioned on their expenses,'' said Fred Piccolo, a spokesman for Corcoran. "In other words, they have to be prepared to defend their travel."

Over in the Senate, however, there are a handful of members who have been approved for trips this year, said Katie Betta, a spokeswoman for Senate President Joe Negron.

When asked about it recently, Betta said that Sens. Audrey Gibson and Oscar Braynon had been approved to attend the NCSL summit in Boston. Betta also said that John Phelps, the Senate Committee on Rules staff director and former long-time House clerk, had also been permitted to go because of his "international reputation as a legislative historian."

Betta also said that Sen. Anitere Flores (pictured above) had been chosen to represent the Florida Senate in the NCSL Executive Leadership Development program being held in Normandy, France from Sept. 25 to Oct. 1.

BONDI'S TRAVELS...Speaking of trips, disclosure forms show that Attorney General Pam Bondi continues to take trips to Washington D.C. and elsewhere that are paid by various groups she's involved with.

Bondi had nearly $28,000 worth of travel provided to her in 2016, which included a "weeklong diplomacy mission to Israel" in late May-early June 2016 that cost $5,000 and was paid by the America-Israel Friendship League.

Bondi said shortly after the trip she traveled with seven other attorneys general and that "it allowed the members of the delegation to meet face-to-face with cybersecurity experts, national legal leaders and top government officials to share strategies to bolster public safety and security."

Bondi, who was once was the chairman and now sits on the executive committee of the Republican Attorneys General Association,  had several trips paid by the RAGA and the Rule of Law Defense Fund, which bills itself as "the public policy organization for issues relevant to the nation’s Republican attorneys general and promotes the rule of law, federalism, and freedom in a civil society."

The association, for example, picked up the cost of Bondi's travel to the Republican National Convention in Cleveland where she gave a speech that included her saying about Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton "Lock her up, I love that."

Bondi also reported that it was RAGA that picked up costs related to her attending the inauguration of President Donald Trump in January.

The group _ which was called a "money machine" by The New York Times _ has seen its activities come under scrutiny, because its meetings are held at resorts where large donors have access to attorneys general who can play a role in deciding whether to investigate corporations or get involved in policy fights.

The latest meeting for RAGA was held in Lake Tahoe late last month and Bondi was in attendance. She has not yet turned in her gift forms for that time period.

AN OLD TUXEDO, WINE AND CIGARS...While legislators and other top state officials are not allowed to take gifts directly from lobbyists or the principals who hire lobbyists, state officials can accept gifts from others that are worth more than $100 if they report them.

A look through some forms shows that only Bondi and Corcoran are the only top officials to regularly file them.

Scott, former Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater, and Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam have maintained that they have received zero gifts worth $100 or more in recent years.

One top public official, however, who has disclosed gifts on a routine basis is Corcoran.

A review of his forms for this year shows that Corcoran accepted a "old tuxedo" from fellow representative and House budget chairman Carlos Trujillo at the time of the presidential inauguration. Sen. Keith Perry gave Corcoran a box of cigars worth $100 in late January.

But Negron - whose relationship with Corcoran seemed strained at times during the legislative session and subsequent special session - gave Corcoran a "humidor, crystal, wine, lighter and cutter" worth approximately $1,000 during the first week of the 2017 session.

Fellow House Rep. Ralph Massullo gave Corcoran $400 worth of wine in early May, while Rep. Travis Cummings gave the Republican speaker about $100 worth of wine two weeks later.

A request for gift forms in fact shows Corcoran has been filing them as far back as 2011 - when he got $200 of cigars from then (and now lobbyist) Rep. Chris Dorworth. Future House Speaker Rep. Jose Oliva _ and who along with his family created a successful cigar business _  has also given him cigars on several occasions.

Then-Sen. Frank Artiles (who resigned this spring after using racial slurs during a tirade at a Tallahassee bar) gave Corcoran a "gun and display" worth $1,000 last November. Corcoran has gotten grilling tools, artwork and even DVD copies of speeches made by famed economist Milton Friedman.

But maybe the most interesting gift Corcoran reported? A sword he got in Sept. 2015 from Mat Bahl, an attorney and former chief of staff for House Speaker Dean Cannon who became Corcoran's chief of staff last year.

BIG PRICE-TAG FOR SENATE GOP FUNDRAISER...Remember the fundraiser for the Florida Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee held at the famed Torrey Pines golf course in June? It got some publicity because there was concern that this year's budget-related special session would collide with it.

Well it appears the fundraiser - which attracted the attendance of many well-known Senate Republicans - wasn't cheap, according to campaign finance reports. The GOP committee _ which gets its money from groups seeking to pass or defeat legislation in the Legislature _ spent more than $77,000 on lodging, meals and golf fees for the two-day event.

There's no requirement that an organization breakout how much money is received at a single fundraiser. The committee reported that it raised $720,000 during the quarter that ended on June 30.

 

Short-lived truce or an end to the simmering GOP feud in Florida?

So everybody is smiling....for now

When Florida legislators wrapped up their special session Friday, the Republican leaders who guide the state appeared happy and sounded happy.

But after so much finger-pointing, after Gov. Rick Scott using television ads and campaign-styled events to criticize GOP legislators for pushing what he called job-killing legislation, after Senate Republicans saying enough is enough....will the simmering feud that exploded dramatically into public view the last few months finally end?

To recap: The three-day special session successfully ended after the House, Senate and Scott crafted a deal that gave Scott some of his top budget priorities -full funding for Visit Florida, money for a new business economic development fund, money for repairs to the aging Lake Okeechobee dike. Legislators also boosted overall funding to the state's public schools by $215 million - or $100 more per student.

Senate President Joe Negron, who appeared ready to blow up the session after saying the Senate had gotten left out of the negotiations, got the House to agree to set aside $60 million in university projects that had been vetoed by Scott just days before. (Scott for his part says he will accept them now.)

House Speaker Richard Corcoran got....well....

Publicly he stated that he got an overhaul of the economic development system where there are no more "winners and losers" because the new $85 million fund created for Scott cannot go to one specific company. Corcoran contended that the new approach in Florida will be far-reaching and will prompt other states to overhaul their economic development efforts. That same bill put in place changes for both Enterprise Florida and Visit Florida.

Of course the Legislature passed a bill during its regular session that also put in sweeping changes to Visit Florida and Enterprise Florida. Scott has said he will veto that bill, but he didn't say that until after Corcoran had pledged to put up more money for economic development efforts than the legislators did the regular session. The plain fact is if Scott had vetoed the initial bill passed by the Legislature then both Visit Florida and Enterprise Florida would have been completely dismantled for the coming year.

That has led to speculation - some of it suggested sort of by Negron - that part of the deal between Corcoran and Scott includes the governor signing a contentious education bill known as HB 7069. This bill is an amalgamation of education policy that was put together during private negotiations at the end of the session. It was included as a budget conforming bill, meaning it could not be amended by other legislators, and barely passed by just one vote in the Florida Senate.

This education legislation touches on everything from testing to recess to extra money for  the state scholarship program that helps disabled children. But it also steers state and federal money to charter schools, which are public schools but are privately-run, including sometimes by for-profit management companies. School superintendents, school boards, and other advocacy groups have called for a veto. Those who support charters and vouchers have called for the governor to sign it.

Scott and Corcoran have both said publicly that the governor did not promise to sign it as part of the special session agreement.

When asked point blank if there were a "quid pro quo," Scott quickly retorted he was still "reviewing" the bill. Corcoran has only said that he is "optimistic" that the governor will sign the legislation.

Scott also publicly contended that House Republicans retreated during the special session because he had gone into their hometowns and publicly criticized them.

"If you saw what happened, I traveled the state...for five and six months. I went and sold it and explained to people that this is what’s going on in session,'' Scott said. "I think everybody came to the conclusion this was good for our state."

(Now, please note - just because Scott says he didn't promise to sign the bill does not mean that Scott's staff did not promise. Scott's new chief of staff Jackie Schutz Zeckman met personally with Corcoran's chief of staff amid the negotiations that led to the special session deal. Zeckman doesn't officially take over until July 1 - but outgoing chief of staff Kim McDougal made the decision for ethical reasons to wall herself off from special session items and other high-profile matters.)

PATH FORWARD

So the question moving forward is this...if Scott does in fact sign the education bill - and the governor does in fact sign another high profile bill, SB 374 that is a top priority for Negron, it would theoretically put the relationship between all sides on a better foundation than it has been.

Remember, this GOP feud has been going on _ and building in intensity _ essentially since Scott got re-elected. Shortly after he was sworn into office for a second term Republicans blocked his pick to lead the Republican Party of Florida. Since then Scott for the most part stopped raising money for the party - which is controlled by Rep. Blaise Ingoglia, an ally of Corcoran.

The House and Senate had several meltdowns in 2015 as they bickered over Medicaid expansion and a way to end redistricting battles that were being fought in the courts. In 2016, led by Corcoran, the Legislature shredded much of Scott's agenda for that year. They rejected his ambitious deal with the Seminole Tribe of Florida.

Flash forward and Scott got a much better outcome during the special session than it appeared he was going to get this year. The governor talked about how he couldn't wait to go out across the state and "brag" about what happened.

But is there any longevity to it?

There are numerous examples that once someone gets sideways with Scott it's hard to get back in his good graces. (Consider the cold distance that separates Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam and Scott.)

Now of course next year is an election year - and there's a possibility that Scott, Corcoran and even Negron could be on the 2018 ballot. That could lead to a more amicable session and the prospect of everyone working hand-in-hand.

Let's not forget, however, the House-Senate relationship remains fragile. The night before the special session ended Negron went on a 30-minute plus lecture with the press where he expressed frustration that the Senate had stood alongside with Scott the last few months yet in the end it was Corcoran and Scott making amends and cutting the Senate out.

Corcoran himself over the weekend hinted things remain complicated.

He tweeted out that he was trying to explain his relationship with the Senate to his kids and he said "Taylor Swift nails it." He linked to a video of Swift singing "Out of the Woods" where she explains before performing it that that it was about a relationship where she constantly felt "anxiety" and was worrying about the "next roadblock."

The lyrics in the song include the lines: "We were built to fall apart/then fall back together...Are we out of the woods yet, are we out of the woods, are we in the clear?"

So what could cause things to fall apart?

There's a whole litany of them, including whether Scott decides to veto the higher education overhaul pushed by Negron, or if Corcoran pursues items that Scott doesn't want to be involved with during an election year.

Take for example the Constitution Revision Commission which has already seen a schism play out between Scott appointees and those appointed by legislative leaders. 

What if Gov. Scott, while running for the U.S. Senate, is on the ballot at the same time there's a sweeping proposal to eliminate property taxes and increase sales taxes in its place. (This was a centerpiece of then-House Speaker Marco Rubio's tax reform proposals when Corcoran was his chief of staff. This proposal briefly popped up last year in the House.)

Scott is also taking on an increased national role - taking the helm of a Republican super PAC and assuming a leadership position with the Republican Governors Association - that could take up more of his time and focus away from state matters.

Then there's the dynamic in the Senate itself which at times seems fluid. The GOP caucus in that chamber is often divided and it's not always clear who is in the loop. Will Republican senators remain loyal to Negron as his power begins to ebb during his second session?

"Are we out of the woods yet, are we out of the woods, are we in the clear yet?"

The power and the swagger: Richard Corcoran and his fight for "soul of the party."

Separated by a couple of hundred yards, a scene played out on Friday night that in a brief few moments captured the essence of the entire 2017 session of the Florida Legislature.

At one end Senate President Joe Negron made his case for why Republican Gov. Rick Scott should look favorably on the new state budget crafted by the GOP-controlled Legislature (and which will be voted on this Monday.)

Negron's logic was even though Scott didn't get what he want the Senate was always on his side. Senators backed Scott's request for money for business incentives and to fully fund Visit Florida, the state's tourism marketing agency. They just couldn't get the House to go along.

"On the Senate side the track record speaks for itself ,'' Negron told reporters. 'We've been a strong ally in the Senate of the governor and his priorities.'

Contrast that to  House Speaker Richard Corcoran who took a much more confrontational position toward the governor. (A governor by the way who has criss-crossed the state blasting GOP legislators and even running ads critical of legislators.)

'There's a war going on for the soul of the party,'' Corcoran said. "Are we going to be who we say we are?"

To Corcoran this "war" means opposing business incentives, or "corporate welfare' as he called them in the past. And in his brief session with reporters he also mentioned politicians who campaign saying they want to crack down on illegal immigration and are opposed to "the liberal socialistic health care policy called Obamacare" but then change their position when they get into office.

Without using his name directly, it was clear that Corcoran was taking aim at Scott, who flipped on Medicaid expansion (part of Obamacare) in his run-up to his re-election campaign and who ran in 2010 promising to take a hard line against immigration but then in 2014 signed a bill that extended in-tuition to the children of undocumented immigrants. (Corcoran voted against the bill even though it was strongly supported by then-House Speaker Will Weatherford.)

"I think what we need to do is elect leaders who say what they mean and mean what they say,'' said Corcoran, who maintains he has yet to make up his mind on whether he plans to run for governor next year.

Corcoran also predicted to reporters that he thought the House and Senate had the votes to hand Scott his first veto override if the governor does indeed veto the entire budget. (This requires a two-thirds vote of both chambers, which means Democrats will have to go along.)

His exchange with reporters showed that Corcoran - who talked before session of turning on the lights and finding the "cockroaches" that the Scott administration had allowed to flourish during six years in office - finishing the 60-day session with the same provocative, confrontational stance he had before it started.

Given everything that has happened over the last two months of the session it's not really surprising.

Along the way he pushed back against anyone - whether they were in media, his own party, or whomever - who challenged his statements or positions. Sometimes he did it in a lawyerly fashion (such as complaints about transparency weren't valid because the media focused on just one part and not the totality of the changes he pushed.)

But other times it was through sheer force.

He used the budget negotiations (largely behind closed doors) and Negron's own top priority to create a reservoir south of Lake Okeechobee to get the Senate to take up a proposed constitutional amendment that would expand Florida's homestead exemption. Corcoran was able to get the Senate to move quickly on this proposal even though it languished most of the session and was opposed by Sen. Jack Latvala, the Senate budget chief.

Corcoran also used his power in less visible, but still effective fashion (like shutting down session for long stretches in the final days when the pressure builds to act.)  It has been argued that his crackdown on lobbyists before session and the requirements about increased disclosure were more about giving him the speaker a clearer idea of where lobbyists may be taking aim at his agenda.

And on Day 60 Corcoran got the Senate to sign off on a nearly 300-page overhaul of education policy (some of it never seen in public before) that will also be taken up Monday on the final day of session. Corcoran used the budget conference process to place all this policy into two "conforming" bills (bills that change state law to conform to the budget) even though some elements of the legislation weren't ever included in the budget conference. He also got policy changes for Visit Florida included in a bill that initially just dealt with a "displaced homemakers" program.

Corcoran wasn't apologetic for the move, saying instead that the bill (HB 7069) and which includes his "Schools of Hope" proposal to shift students in low-performing schools over to charter schools was some of the "boldest most transformational" change ever and would even rival former Gov. Jeb Bush's A+ plan that put in place the state's entire school grading system.

The setbacks for Corcoran were few: His push for major ethics reform and judicial term limits were never taken seriously in the Senate. There's an argument that despite his pre-session warnings to avoid them that there were plenty of special interest fights . Witness the drawn-out battle over the so-called "Whiskey and Wheaties bill" - which would allow grocery stores to eventually sell hard liquor - as one example. (Corcoran, who appeared to take a strong interest in the measure, maintains his backing of that bill was about free-market principles.)

But of course the question is whether Corcoran's victory dance is premature.

Because at this point it's unclear what Scott will do and whether he will use his own considerable power against the House speaker.

This past week Corcoran and his top allies let it be known that they had offered Scott a deal where they would have relented in a couple of places and funded a couple of his priorities: Visit Florida as well as money for repairs to the Herbert Hoover dike surrounding Lake Okeechobee.

That Scott's people rejected the deal isn't that hard to explain. As explained by those close to Scott, the governor didn't deliver a long list of demands to state legislators this year so it shouldn't be too hard to get the handful of things he asked for.

Of course there remains the chance there will be a few more chess moves before ultimately the Corcoran vs. Scott drama plays itself out.

Corcoran and Negron could refuse to immediately deliver the budget to Scott, meaning that the governor - and the Legislature - would have less time to act as the state moves closer to the end of the fiscal year on June 30. There's nothing in state law that mandates when the Legislature has to deliver the budget to Scott's desk. So theoretically the Legislature could hand it over a week ahead of time.

Yet in one way the two legislative leaders have given Scott an easier path to a budget veto.

The main general appropriations act is $82.4 billion, but it doesn't include many key elements. Legislators have placed more than $700 million worth of spending for Negron's Lake Okeechobee plan, Schools of Hope, Visit Florida and the state employee pay raise OUTSIDE the main budget bill.

This means Scott can sign some of the bills important to the Senate (where it may be easier to sustain a veto) while at the same time vetoing the budget and any other bills important to the House.

Of course if Scott does veto the entire budget (a rare occurrence in recent Florida history) then we get to watch Round 2 between the speaker and the governor.

And the war for the "soul of the party" will rage on.

The looming budget battle in Florida: A primer

Well, here we go.

After watching the prelude for weeks, the Florida Legislature and its Republican leaders will finally put pen to paper this week (so to speak) and release their detailed spending plans for the coming fiscal year.

After listening to leaders in the House and Senate discuss their priorities, the expectations are that the rival budgets could be widely divergent in what they cut, what they keep and what they enhance.

There are a multiple reasons for that, whether it's Senate President Joe Negron's push for increased money for state universities, or House Speaker Richard Corcoran's insistence that the state shutter its economic development agency Enterprise Florida.

But less noticed is that the House, Senate and Gov. Rick Scott have chosen to include information that supports their arguments, while seemingly sidestepping other salient points. This could influence the tenor of the debate that is about to intensify.

So it might be worthwhile and step back for just a second to recall how everybody got here and what's important to remember for the budget battle that still lies ahead.

So here's a few things to understand:

DON'T CALL IT A DEFICIT: There is no budget deficit this year. Plain and simple.

To understand the underlying budget situation, it's important to realize this. In Florida a deficit occurs when the state collects less money than what is needed to pay for things that are in the budget.

Florida's tax collections are in fact growing. The main budget account - known as the general revenue account - is expected to grow in the current fiscal year by 4.4 percent, or $1.23 billion.  This same account, which relies on a variety of tax sources but primarily the state's sales tax, is expected to grow $1.16 billion - or 3.9 percent - in the fiscal year that starts on July 1. That's a stark difference from the depths of The Great Recession when legislators were required to cut spending (or in 2009 raises taxes) to make the math work.

So then where does the confusion lie?

Well, let's start with a document called the Long-Range Financial Outlook. Thanks to current Sen. Tom Lee, the voters in 2006 approved a constitutional amendment that requires the development of an outlook that looks out over a three-year period and reviews both sides of the ledger - the expected spending and the revenue coming in.

The outlook comes out once a year. The one approved in September found that when balanced together legislators had a windfall of only $7.5 million for the 2017-18 fiscal year. And the economists and analysts who put it together warned of a "structural imbalance" that could create a sizable budget gap in the years to follow. That has sparked talk of deep budget cuts including a House plan to cut at least $1.4 billion alone in the coming year.

But it's important to remember this budget gap is a summary of both revenues - and expenses.

The long-range outlook put together assumes nearly 50 different expenditures - and that greatly impacts the bottom line.

Let's start with tax cuts: The overall outlook assumes that there will be $254 million in recurring tax cuts in each of the next three years. This is based on a historical average in recent years, but the point is this, part of the projected gap is based on the assumption that legislators will continue to cut taxes, which adds to the potential shortfall, which helps trigger the need for cuts elsewhere to close that gap.

The budget shortfall or gap that is projected to occur is also driven by a long line of other spending decisions where economists plugged in the numbers based on historical decisions made by legislators: The outlook assumes a $1 billion reserve on top of other existing budget reserves. It assumes that legislators will fully fund increased enrollment in public schools, pay for increases in Medicaid, and set aside more than $400 million over the next three years to pay for increased costs associated with the state employee health insurance program.

But there's more - the outlook assumes an increase of per-student funding above enrollment growth, grants to libraries and museums, local government park grants, and in the out years money spent on replacing a law-enforcement radio system and the replacement of Florida's accounting system.

So what does that mean? In reality, the budget debate is one about choices.

Do legislators choose to keep cutting taxes? Do they choose to keep spending money on certain things? Do they choose to make deep cuts due to a philosophical belief that government is too big and too expensive? Do they refuse to revisit past decisions that contribute to their structural imbalance - including for example - decisions to give out tax credits to various businesses. This could include anything from the insurance tax credit that is targeted by the Senate, or the tax credit scholarship program that continues to grow. (The amount of tax credits available for the scholarship program is projected to increase from $559 million this fiscal year to nearly $699 million next year.)

THE SCHOOL TAX DEBATE:  If there is one item that could derail the entire budget process it's the thorny annual dilemma over school property taxes.

Here's the problem: As property values rise, this translates into more money collected by local school districts that could be spent on public schools. In other words, if the value of your home goes up you will pay more in taxes in the coming year - unless the tax rate is lowered by an equal amount to offset the increase in values.

Legislators don't appropriate this local property tax money - BUT - they do draw up spending plans that assumes a mixture of both local and state funding. This is known as the Florida Education Finance Program or FEFP and districts that wish to draw down the state funding must collect a certain amount of money. (This is known as the required local effort or RLE.)

Republican leaders, including Scott, have used these increased local tax dollars to boost the overall amount spent on public schools. Some legislators have defended the practice by noting when property values plunged during the Great Recession that the state helped offset the loss (but not completely.) 

But Corcoran has vowed that he will not let this happen this year - and he's taken a much stronger stance on this than practically every other spending item in play.

Important piece of history: Corcoran was chief of staff for then-House Speaker Marco Rubio when the Legislature waged a lengthy debate over property taxes during a time when Florida's real-estate market was super heated. The position of the GOP-controlled Legislature at the time was pretty simple: If local governments take in more tax dollars because of rising values, then it's a tax increase. Legislators forced cities and counties to roll back their tax rates. So Corcoran is being consistent with that position. (Also worth noting: Several senators, then in the Florida House, also took that position. Dennis Baxley, Anitere Flores, Bill Galvano, Denise Grimsley and Perry Thurston voted in favor of the bill to force local tax rollbacks.)

Scott has maintained that this isn't a tax increase and his own budget recommendation relies on nearly $558 million in increased local school taxes to help pay for an overall 3 percent increase in per-student funding. Scott has tried to suggest this is no different than if the price of a car goes up and you pay higher taxes  because of the higher price. Yeah, but the government doesn't set the price of a car. In this instance government at both the state and local level have a hand in deciding how much property owners will spend.

BREAKING DOWN OTHER FLASHPOINTS...Quick hits on remaining things to look for and understand:

GAMBLING: Right now all these budget projections being thrown out do not assume any changes in Florida's gambling laws or a new compact with the Seminole Tribe. That means if - and it's a pretty big if - legislators could stroke a deal with the Seminoles and the rest of the players in the seemingly intractable gambling turf war it could provide an injection of cash that could help smooth things over.

GULF COAST SPILL MONEY: While this may not command a lot of attention around the state, the ongoing tug-of-war over money the state received as part of a settlement over the 2010 BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is part of the overall dynamic that will decide how this session ends up. The state last year got $400 million as its first installment. Under an existing law some $300 million is supposed to go to eight Panhandle counties that were impacted the most by the spill. But the Legislature has to yet to agree to send the money out the door.

Corcoran and House leaders didn't like the arrangement allowed under the existing law so they have crafted a bill that places more oversight on the spending - and prohibits any of the money being used on economic development projects. The Senate so far has a different approach and they have not agreed to all the House restrictions. This money is a big, big deal to the Panhandle Republicans and in Tallahassee parlance - this is their going home bill - meaning they can't go home unless they get it worked out.

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: This item has gotten plenty of press especially since it has triggered a feud between Scott - who wants to keep funding intact for the state's economic development agency - and House leaders who want to eliminate Enterprise Florida and scale back Visit Florida, the tourism marking agency. The Senate so far is siding with Scott. The question is will they remain in sync with the governor all the way to the finish line.

HIGHER EDUCATION: Negron's bid to increase funding to state universities as part of an effort to propel them into the top ranks of the nation's public colleges is going to be rebuffed by House leaders who contend that universities are misspending what they have now (some of which came with the help of legislators who placed projects into university spending lines.) The one word of caution in this debate is that numbers get thrown around sometimes without a clear sense of what they mean.

Universities are dependent on several streams of funding and it appears so far that the House is lumping everything in to make an argument about overall spending. There are differences between straight state funding and the money that universities take in from other sources - whether it's tuition, money from federal grants, or money medical schools earn from seeing patients. For example, the amount of tuition money can go up even if the rates don't because universities admit more students. T

The House has zeroed in on spending among the foundations and whether it's proper for the universities to use state funding to subsidize fundraising operations. So far, the universities have had a muted response and not given a clear explanation as to practice. One big question is whether or not the House will advocate for blocking universities from using their foundations to pay university employees above state limits.

TRUST FUNDS: It's important to remember that some taxes and fees charged by the state don't wind up in the main budget account. Instead they are set aside in what are known as trust funds. Year in and year out special interests groups argue that money collected in these funds belong to them. And year after year the Legislature politely ignores this and transfers money of these trust funds and uses to help balance the budget.

SPEND NOW, PAY LATER? Unlike the federal government, Florida is required to have a balanced budget every year. That doesn't mean of course the state doesn't have debt. It does.

Until Scott came into office, past governors and legislators authorized borrowing for fixed capital costs such as building college buildings, roads and acquiring environmentally-sensitive lands. Scott started drawing a firm line about this and led the charge to push down the state's debt load. As of last June, it was $24.1 billion or more than $4 billion lower than it was when Scott came into office.

Negron's plan to build a reservoir south of Lake Okeechobee calls for increased borrowing. Currently the bill moving authorizes more than $3 billion in bonding authority to go to various projects, but with an estimated $1.2 billion going to the reservoir project. But that's not what is needed right away in this year's budget.

If the plan is approved it would carry an estimated $100 million price-tag to this year's budget since the bonds would be paid back over 20 years in installments.

So Negron's plan has an immediate cost to the treasury, but it's also important to understand that the full amount of his project will not included in this year's budget.

BOTTOM LINE: Under the current schedule legislators are operating under the House and Senate are expected to pass their budgets during the second week of April.

That week is already truncated because of religious holidays so it is highly unlikely that any negotiations or work can begin until April 17. That means legislators will have about 15 days to get everything worked out in order to get a budget finished on time. That's because Florida law requires the budget to be finished 72 hours before the final vote.

So that's a lot of ground to cover in a short amount of time. Besides the above-mentioned topics there's other issues at play, including pay raises, more money for charter schools etc.

The clock is ticking.

The 5 biggest questions of the 2017 session

The 2017 session kicked off on Tuesday amid the usual pomp and circumstance and rows of desks overflowing with flowers, but this time around - there is a sense of apprehension about whether or not the schism between Republicans Gov. Rick Scott and House Speaker Richard Corcoran as well as the building tension between the House and Senate will result in a dysfunctional session that spirals out of control.

So realizing that any predictions this session is a risky business, here in no particular order are the 5 biggest questions of the session:

1. How hard will be it to pass a new state budget? The one job for Tallahassee legislators is of course the passage of a new spending plan. A lot of time and energy has already been spent on the fate of Visit Florida, the state's tourism marketing arm, and Enterprise Florida, the entity set up to recruit businesses to the state. The latest House plan calls for the elimination of Enterprise Florida and the imposition of stringent new rules on Visit Florida.

But in reality that's just a small part of the work that lies ahead.

Scott, the House and Senate are on a collision course. Scott says the state has plenty of money to do what he wants including a $618 million tax cut. Senate leaders say they can pass a budget that boosts spending on school financial aid and pays for Senate President Joe Negron's plan to acquire land south of Lake Okeechobee. The House meanwhile is planning to move ahead with a budget that includes a substantial boost in funding for low-income charter schools, while slashing other spending more than $1 billion and holding the line on local property taxes. (Scott uses this rise in local property taxes to help pay for a boost in school spending.)

The argument coming from the House - and reinforced in Corcoran's opening day speech - is that the state is spending too much (while at the same time contending that past years of tax cuts did not play a role) and that drastic action must be taken to make sure the budget will not be massively out of balance in the next two or three years.

There are some observers who contend that last week's agreement between Negron and Corcoran on a new budget rule regarding new projects is a good sign that shows Corcoran is capable of compromise.

But that new rule doesn't solve the math problem.

And this tug-of-war over spending could easily grind the session to a halt, or worse, force legislators into overtime.

It wouldn't be a surprise if the House goal is put together a budget that forces Scott to make difficult decisions - including the elimination of Enterprise Florida. Will the Senate keep its budding alliance with Scott and resist? Or will Scott be forced to actually consider vetoing the budget and in a moment sure to command plenty of press attention - order legislators back to Tallahassee to pass a budget that he says doesn't crash the economy?

Another pivotal budget item: The $300 million that the state received from the Deepwater Horizon settlement that is supposed to go to eight North Florida counties. The money was received last year but it still hasn't gone out the door. It's gotten a bit lost in the mix, but this item could prove crucial in the final mix. Negron, during his opening day press conferences, started out his remarks by warning that the Senate will not go along with a House proposal to place limits on how the money is spent. That bill initially placed firm legislative controls on the spending, but then it was amended. It's now parked in a committee that cancelled its meeting this week.

And without going into great detail - the longer the budget impasse is unresolved the more control actually shifts to Scott. He has several administrative tools in his hands that he can use to keep state government open - and control state spending - if legislators are actually unable to reach a final deal by July 1.

2. What does Richard Corcoran really want? Say this for Mr. Speaker - he has befuddled a lot of people.

Part of it is that Corcoran is a skilled political operative who knows all about leverage and negotiations. Corcoran's showdown with Scott over economic development and contracts as well as his crackdown on lobbyists has led to speculation about his true motives and true intentions and a looming bid for higher office.

A bid for governorship may be ultimately where he winds up.

But those who know him closely contend that Corcoran's wish list - which includes term limits for Supreme Court justices and appeals court judges as well as help for low-income charter schools - is not just window dressing.

And understand this: Corcoran not only has supporters in the House, but he also has quietly built up backing in the Senate as illustrated by his appointment this week of Sen. Tom Lee to the Florida Constitution Revision Commission. Lee has made it clear that he is a "free agent" during the upcoming session.

If you look closely it appears that Corcoran may have sway with a handful of Senate Republicans, which means he may have some leverage in the "deliberative Senate." And it also creates one side-item of speculation (consider it question 2A) - Will Negron have to rely on Democrats in order to get his agenda passed?

Corcoran also appears willing to try another legislative tactic and that's to put a lot of things into motion. He outlined many of his top priorities in his opening day remarks (or call to arms) but the House keeps pumping out new issues, whether it's an overhaul of the Public Service Commission, limits on local government taxes. There are promises to keep pressure on the judiciary and who knows there may be more lawsuits in play.

It makes harder, however, to keep a tally on what's really important to him. And maybe that's the goal.

3. Will the sugar industry win again? Negron's Lake O plan has already drawn a wide share of detractors - including from those in Florida's powerful sugar industry. As anyone who follows Florida politics knows, the state's sugar companies have strong political connections and wield a great deal of influence. Many leaders - including Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam - have already said they are opposed to Negron's plan as costly and unnecessary.

There is also a full-on public relations battle going on with public relations firms cranking out press releases that are then reinforced through coverage in various online outlets. Much of it may not reach into other parts of the state but it will increase pressure inside the beltway and inside the Capitol building.

The battle over the Lake O plan has already forced Negron to step down from the Gunster law firm because U.S. Sugar is a client of the firm.

But Corcoran said during a recent appearance at a Tallahassee private school that he was actually open to considering the plan, although he warned that legislators could get bogged down discussing the actual details of the proposal that calls for borrowing money in order to finance the acquisition. Corcoran's receptiveness to Negron's proposal caused a bit of a ripple through the Capitol.

Negron and Senate Republicans are already tinkering with the plan so that may be seen as a sign that it's still an uphill battle. Still it's safe to assume this issue will remain in play until the very end.

4. How relevant will Gov. Scott be in this year's session? Since he arrived in 2011 Scott has had an up-and-down relationship with his fellow Republicans in the Legislature. It's complicated his ability to get his agenda carried out. (Case in point -some may not remember he wanted nearly $2 billion in cuts to education his first year, a two-year budget and giant tax cuts.)

But there's no doubt this year is different as Corcoran and Scott have traded videos and barbs over the House's push to scuttle Enterprise Florida and trim back Visit Florida. Scott has vigorously defended the programs and has called out by name House members opposed to his agenda and launched robo-calls in their districts.

Among the items in the governor's favor is Scott's bond with President Donald Trump, which of course gives him a really important ally. (Will it count? Who knows, but it's worth noting.)

Scott has also taken time to try to strengthen his relationship with the Senate, as evidenced by his visit on Monday night to a private reception hosted by Sen. Jack Latvala, the Senate budget chief. And so far the Senate has been more supportive of the governor, although Scott's tax cut package may be a tough sell due to budget constraints.

The governor also gained a bit of additional leverage with the announcement that Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater was stepping down after session. Now Scott has an important appointment to make and there are some legislators who would like that plum assignment so they may be more receptive to aiding him.

Scott also of course has veto power over appropriations and bills which can convince recalcitrant legislators to play nice with him. But in the end will the desire of Senate and House Republicans to reach a deal - and knowing Scott's time in office is coming to an end soon - trump all of the governor's leverage points?

5. How many gun bills will pass? Much has already been written about the long line of gun rights bills up for consideration during this year's session. They of course include open carry, campus carry, and a rewrite of the state's "stand your ground" law.

Recent tragedies such as the Pulse Nightclub shooting and the killings at the Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport have added to a debate about "gun free zones" and whether or not people should be allowed to bring their guns into areas they are not allowed to now.

In the past few years, some of the more contentious gun bills have gotten bogged down and failed to pass. Polls have shown that many of the proposals aren't backed by a majority of Floridians. But gun rights supporters - including the National Rifle Association - have been unrelenting in their push to get these measures passed.

On the first day of session Sen. Anitere Flores, a Miami Republican, made it clear that she has trouble with some of the proposals - a move that means that several bills would not be able to move out of a key committee in the Senate.

But there's still a lot of time left in session so it may be a tad premature to declare everything dead for now. And the change proposed to the stand your ground law has strong support, including from Negron, so that appears to be on track to pass.

Rick Scott's next job

Shortly before prime-time on Wednesday night, Florida Gov. Rick Scott got a few moments on Fox News to deliver the announcement that he was becoming the national chairman of Rebuilding America Now, a super PAC dedicated to helping GOP nominee Donald Trump become president.

Amid the other activities of the convention _ including the address of President Barack Obama _ it got overshadowed.

But in many ways it's a big signal about the political ambitions and possible future of Scott.

First off Scott's work for the group _ which includes political director Ken McKay (who worked on Scott's 2010 campaign and was political director for the Republican Governors Association) _ will give him a spot to approach donors and network with top Republicans across the nation. It may also give him an opportunity to land more national media coverage in the weeks to come.

Scott told Fox News that the group was well behind the fundraising efforts of the groups supporting Clinton, but said that millions had already pledged to the group. He vowed that "we’re going to do everything we can to set the record straight and make sure everybody knows the difference between Donald trump and Hillary Clinton."

The conventional wisdom has been among many that Scott is destined to run for the U.S. Senate seat now held by Sen. Bill Nelson. Nelson's seat comes up in 2018 and it could be considered vulnerable in a non-presidential election year, especially since the Democratic politician has solidly aligned himself with Obama and Hillary Clinton. Despite backing Trump, Scott very early on took his name out of consideration for vice president.

If you talk, however, to those who know Scott and his thinking, they point to another possibility for the future: Scott mounting his own campaign for president in 2020.

It may be seem far-fetched to those who point to Scott's so-so favorable ratings in Florida, the fact that he had to spend roughly $85 million of his own money to win his campaigns for governor, and of course the federal investigation and record fines levied against the company he used to lead.

But consider where he stands now _ and how his political fortunes may change depending on what happens in this year's presidential election.

Part of his message crafted by his own set of political advisers, which includes the team from On Message Inc. as well as his former campaign manager/chief of staff Melissa Stone, has been Scott's consistent criticism of the federal government and Obama on multiple fronts.

If Clinton beats Trump, that stays in Scott's political handbook. He can continue to go after the federal government on a multitude of issues, just as he has on Ebola, Zika, the algae blooms etc. etc.

Scott has to change his adversarial tone, however, if Trump wins the presidency (and the Republicans hold onto Congress.)

Scott has said in recent television interviews that he could accomplish so much more if Trump were to succeed. But that brushes asides the complicated political reality that Republicans in Florida are split. This situation could limit what he will be able to accomplish in his final two years in office.

Think about this - Scott has been refusing to raise money for the Republican Party of Florida, but now he has agreed to raise the millions needed to battle Clinton between now and November.

Incoming House Speaker Richard Corcoran and Incoming Senate President Joe Negron have made it clear that they plan to have their own broad agenda on everything from ethics/lobbying reform, higher education, changes to the judiciary. They have been forging a path during this election cycle using the money they have raised on their own and with very little assistance from the governor. Now Scott may align himself with Negron (the old 2 vs. 1 strategy that many legislative leaders have used in the past) but he still may difficulty pursuing his own agenda.

So where does that leave Scott heading forward? It may not matter that much.

While Scott has set adrift several of his campaign promises as governor - and zig-zagged on issues such as Medicaid expansion and immigration - he will be able to point to the state's economic recovery and job growth and declare his tenure as a success. (We'll set aside the whole 700,000 jobs vs. 1.7 million jobs promise and what is the true cause of the recovery for now.) And as of now it's a pretty good likelihood the number of jobs under Scott's watch will likely grow between now and 2018.

So that gives Scott the platform in 2020 to say that he's got a track record of success as an outsider businessman turned politician. He will note he cut Florida's debt and dealt with budget deficits.

It's true he doesn't have the polish of other speakers, or the ability to attract attention the way that Trump has, but his efforts in helping Trump will give him the ability to argue that he was a loyal Republican as opposed to some others who also may be considering a GOP bid four years from now.

Many political insiders have tried to discount Scott for years now. That proved to be a mistake in 2010 and 2014. It could be the same four years from now.

For some Florida Republicans it's time for golf, wine and mild California weather

After a protracted absence, more inside the Tallahassee bubble news.

The really important local race that could impact the whole state....The end of qualifying _ and the lurch into the official campaign season _ has been dominated with talk about the U.S. Senate race featuring incumbent Marco Rubio as well several high profile congressional and state senate races.

Yet there's one very important race that is emerging within the shadows of the Florida Capitol.

Last August State Attorney Willie Meggs announced that he was ending a career stretching back to 1985.

Three challengers have stepped forward to challenge him: Jack Campbell, an assistant state attorney and son of late Leon County Sheriff Larry Campbell, Sean Desmond, a former prosecutor under Meggs who is now in private practice, and former Statewide Prosecutor Pete Williams.

Over the course of his time in office Meggs engaged in cases that had reverberations in state politics. He aggressively investigated in the '90s whether or not legislators were accepting gifts and trips from lobbyists. The Meggs investigation into House Speaker Ray Sansom wound up forcing the Destin Republican to resign from both the speakership and the Florida Legislature.

Meggs was ultimately forced to abandon the case against Sansom, which was tied to his push for an appropriation in the budget that appeared to be benefit a Republican businessman from Sansom's area.

But because of a Meggs subpoena that probe forced into daylight the use of Republican Party of Florida credit cards by top elected officials - a topic ultimately that caused questions for a long line of politicians including Rubio, then-Gov. Charlie Crist as well as RPOF Chairman Jim Greer.

Other times, however, Meggs has resisted calls to investigate powerful people, such as in 2015 amid the outcry over Gov. Rick Scott's decision to oust Florida Department of Law Enforcement Commissioner Gerald Bailey. Meggs refused to investigate Bailey's ouster even there were allegations of Sunshine Law violations and Bailey himself alleged that the Scott administration had potentially tried to interfere with an investigation.

So how will the next state attorney handle these types of cases?

Well, it could very well depend on who wins.

In Tallahassee at least - which is where the largest concentration of votes in the race will come from - the primary focus for the candidates is Leon County's crime rate, which is currently the highest in the state.

During a recent community forum featuring the three candidates, Campbell was blunt, saying that while "you need to have the courage" to take on potential corruption cases it would not be a pressing item for him.

"We got plenty of people getting shot in the street, I’ve got plenty of people getting raped at FSU campus,'' Campbell said.

Desmond echoed that sentiment: "I think it's absolutely a duty to shine a light on everything, but if it's going to impact and take away resources from other things we need to prioritize that."

Williams, who noted he pursued corruption cases when he was statewide prosecutor, maintains that "I will be very aggressive there." But in a followup statement Williams faulted the way that Meggs' office has handled certain cases, including the unsuccessful prosecution of Liberty County Sheriff Nick Finch. (The case was handled by Campbell and Williams contended that it should have been handled by an outside prosecutor instead of someone working for Meggs. Williams also contended Finch was prosecuted because he backed Williams in the 2012 election, an allegation that Campbell said was a "lie.")

Desmond and Campbell are squaring off in the Democratic primary and the winner of that race will run against Williams, the Republican nominee, in the November general election.

"Going to California"....

Gov. RIck Scott has pilloried California over the last couple of years and has visited the state in an effort to woo businesses in that state to move to the Sunshine State.

But apparently it's a good place for some Republicans to go and escape the heat, humidity, algal blooms, mosquitoes and raise money.

The main fundraising committee led by Sen. Joe Negron that is helping Republican state Senate candidates held a two-day fundraiser this week at the famed Pebble Beach golf course (where the daily high was in the mid-60s) located near Carmel and Monterey.

This is a recurring site for fundraisers and it's been held in this site before. But which elected officials decided to attend it? Shh. That's a secret.

A spokeswoman for Negron said he would not discuss fundraising events. But the little birds who flock to Peter Schorsch told him that joining Negron at the California event were Sens. Anitere Flores, Lizbeth Benacquisto, and Rob Bradley.

Also there was Sen. Bill Galvano, who is staying out west this week to hold a separate Napa Valley fundraiser for his own political committee Innovate Florida. The invitation promises a group dinner and private vineyard lunch tasting at the Far Niente Winery about 171 miles north of Pebble Beach.

Galvano, who was re-elected to a new term in office without opposition, said earlier this month that he decided to hold the fundraiser at the winery since he was going out west for the Pebble Beach fundraiser.

Since the end of the 2016 session Galvano has piled up a significant amount of money in his political committee.

State filed fundraising reports for March, April and May - along with paperwork on the Innovate Florida website for June - show that Galvano has collected more than $357,000. Some of the big donors include Associated Industries of Florida and the Florida Medical Association.

So far in the last few months Galvano has steered money from his Innovate Florida account to other political committees - such as the one helping Senate candidates - the campaign accounts of GOP senators as well as payments to his staff, a fundraising consultant and reimbursements that Galvano has claimed. State records show that money from the account has been used to pay for hotels, meals and travel including a nearly $500 tab at The Edison in early April.

Gov. Rick Scott, triangulation and the difficult path to session end

There's no doubting that this session of the Florida Legislature has gone _ so far _ smoother than last year. No fiery speeches on the chamber floors over Medicaid expansion. No threats of walk-offs. No steely stares when asked questions from the media about closed-door caucus meetings.

But the big question with just 23 days left is simple: Can this truce last?

And when you talk to legislative leaders and other insiders it remains an open-ended question _ even in an election year when everyone just wants to go home as soon as possible.

The 2016 legislative session began with the House and Senate embracing the top priorities of both House Speaker Steve Crisafulli and Senate President Andy Gardiner as lawmakers quickly passed bills dealing with water policy and providing additional services to those with developmental disabilities. That was followed by hours of hearings in the House and Senate on some contentious bills, that may, or may not, if some senators have their way, pass.

So what's left in the closing days and hours is a conundrum that is going to require someone, including maybe Gov. Rick Scott, to compromise.

Here's why: The Senate and House can't bring a new state budget in for a landing until they reach a consensus on how much money to spend, whether it's on health care, schools as well as tax cuts and the $250 million economic development proposal that Scott wants in order to lure new companies to the state.

Right now these high-level budget decisions - called allocations - have not been made yet. Until those decisions are made then other budget items - whether it's pay raises for state workers or more money for land preservation _ can't be resolved.

"I think we got to start sitting down with the Senate, and you've got to look at the numbers,'' said Rep. Richard Corcoran, the House budget chief. "What can you do with the numbers?"

It's important to note that neither chamber in its initial budget proposals gave the Republican governor exactly what he wanted.

And in fact it almost appeared to be coordinated (although legislators say that wasn't how it worked out.)

The House gave Scott zero on his economic development plan. Their concern isn't so much rooted in cost, but in the overall philosophy behind the deal and whether government should be picking winners and losers. (A common theme sounded by Americans for Prosperity.) The Senate, however, has agreed to give Scott the entire amount for economic development (although the funding source has come under question.)

The Senate meanwhile has budgeted zero for tax cuts while the House has crafted a package that cuts $1 billion, but over a two-and-a-half year period instead of doing it in one year. (The House package also has tax cuts that expire so as to bring down the out year costs.) Scott's own tax cut package is not all $1 billion in one year, but his first year price-tag is $621 million - or nearly $300 million more than the House first year total.

Yes, Gardiner has voiced support for $250 million in tax cuts, but the Senate budget of nearly $81 billion doesn't really have enough money to do it unless you wipe out reserves _ or you cut back spending, sweep trust funds used for affordable housing, etc. Sen. Tom Lee, the Senate budget chairman, acknowledged that reality when talking to reporters last week. It was Lee who pointedly on the floor of the Senate called it "fiscally irresponsible" to try to cut taxes by $1 billion.

So then how do you get to the end of the session and pass the one bill (the budget) that is required each year?

Normal legislative protocol would be to split the difference and rely on the tried-and-true maxim of getting something is better than getting nothing.

But will Scott go along with that?

He made it clear _based on interviews with top legislators who met with him on Tuesday _ that's he's still banking on getting what he asked for.

And that's not just $250 million for economic development but his large tax cut package. Scott has told reporters so far this year that he remains confident that if everyone wants the session to end well that they will reach an agreement with him.

And what happens if they don't? Well Scott last year showed legislators that he has little problem with vetoing their bills and their projects in the budget. Last year several legislators howled in disbelief from Scott's veto pen - but they did little about it afterwards, largely because the House and Senate remained deeply upset over the meltdown of the 2015 regular session and could not work in concert.

Could that change this year? Maybe. But it would seem to be an act of faith to think that Scott will act differently if he doesn't get his way again this year.

Now as a back-up strategy the Legislature could pass a new budget before the scheduled March 11 end of the session. That would require Scott to act within seven days and before they have left town. Theoretically lawmakers could hold back tax cut bills to see how Scott reacted. And if he actually vetoed budget items again, they could either refuse to pass the tax cut bills, or actually override Scott's budget vetoes.

But such a plan would require a good working relationship between the House and Senate _ and that's not apparent right now.

Senators just don't think that the House would go along with an override _ and there are signs that is a correct assumption.

So where does that leave everything?

Well the Legislature could pass a budget and hope Scott will be more cooperative this time around. (You can tell with the recent decisions by the Senate to move his agency heads through confirmation hearings that there is some hope of a breakthrough.)

Sen. Joe Negron, the incoming Senate budget president, said Tuesday that while the top line decisions on spending will be made by Lee and Gardiner he could see all sides working out a deal.

"I think there is a way we can do responsible economic development and have a tax cut package,'' Negron said. "The Legislature and governor have to work together in a way where all parties achieve the goals they have set. The question is how do we get there?"

Yes, but answering that question may well depend on trust.

And so who does everyone trust?

Does the House trust the Senate? Does the Senate trust the House? Do legislators trust Scott?

These are questions that are hard for any reporter who has followed the Legislature the last two years _ and listened closely to both Republican and Democrats _ to answer with authority. And that's why it's hard _ at least right now _ to figure out if this session will go out with a roar, or a whimper.

5 biggest questions for the 2016 session

After one of the most tumultuous years since Republicans assumed control of the Florida Legislature - the GOP-controlled House and Senate return this week for a 60-day jaunt that many legislative leaders hope/predict is relatively calm and uneventful heading into what could be a highly unpredictable election year.

Most insiders of course can recount the score: The budget meltdown, the abrupt ending of the 2015 regular session, two failed redistricting special sessions, a budget finally passed with days to go before a state government shutdown.

Legislators are returning early this year as part of an experiment to move up the date so that lawmakers can be back home in time to spend spring break with their families. (It would take a change in the constitution to move up session start for every year.)

Here then are the 5 biggest questions of session:

Can everybody just get along?

The expectation is that the resolution of the long-simmering Senate presidency battle (which was won by Sen. Joe Negron) and the Senate's tabling of Medicaid expansion should make it easier to reach a consensus on the state budget and other issues. Throw in the fact that it's an election year and there is an anticipation that there will be a willingness to compromise. But that may not capture the complicated situation at hand.

First all, there's Gov. Rick Scott who enters the session with a longer wish list than normal. And it's not just the $1 billion tax cut package and Enterprise Florida reforms that the governor wants (although that appears to be a big ask). Scott put together a $3 billion gambling deal with the Seminoles and he's also pursuing his health care transparency package.

Last year Scott showed that there is a price to pay (through his substantial budget vetoes) if you don't go his way. So you can be assured that remains on the minds of many legislators.

But let's not forget there are some Scott agency heads whose fates remained unresolved, or that there remains a split in fundraising/political activities that has resulted in the Senate and Scott raising money separately from the party. You can also throw in the whole unsettled situation in the Senate due to a redrawn state Senate map that could theoretically force some senators to moderate their positions.

Lastly, a key question is how supporters of former Gov. Jeb Bush and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio in the Legislature will view Scott's decision to nudge ever so closely to endorsing GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump.

Say what you will about the sausage-making in the state Capitol a lot of it still depends on connections and relationships and many of the items cited could play a role. And if Scott is viewed as isolated from members of his party then there is even less willingness to work with him.

Is it possible to ever reach an agreement on gambling?

Well, you certainly wouldn't want to bet on it given the competing forces (including dog and horse tracks from outside of South Florida) who don't like some of the fine print on the deal that Scott reached with the Seminole Tribe. In the past few years attempts to pass major gambling bills have floundered amid the Scylla and Charybdis that exists in the Legislature on this issue.

But Scott remains a wild card on this. The governor, who began his business career as a deal maker, put together a proposed compact with tribal officials that was guaranteed to get big headlines and promised a big payout.

Throughout his time as governor Scott has remained, for lack of a better word, agnostic about gambling in the state. In other words, the governor isn't going to back the tribe, the dog tracks, the anti-gambling factions including Disney, Las Vegas casino owner Sheldon Adelson, or even Trump at all cost.

It would not be surprising if Scott's approach is basically: 'Hey, I helped put together a deal. Tribe, it's up to you and your lobbyists to get it passed.' And more importantly, is Scott amenable to changes as long as the overarching achievement - the money in the state's bank account is unchanged? Signs point to yes.

Tribal officials - who are still locked in a court battle over whether they can keep blackjack tables in their casinos under the 2010 deal that expired last summer - may have to decide if they need to cobble together something that makes everyone happy. Or decide if they could take their chances and just wait until next year.

Scott has been very deferential so far in his public pronouncements and has made it clear that it's up to the Legislature to work something out. If it doesn't happen the governor can maintain it wasn't his fault.

How many gun bills will reach their target?

Apart from the budget and gambling battles, you can expect a fair amount of attention in the media to be focused on the gun bills already moving through the Legislature. These include bills allowing open carry of firearms, guns on college campuses and changes to the Stand Your Ground law.

The decision by legislative leaders to already allow these bills to move through legislative committees even before the start of the 60-day session is a sign that there is considerable support for them.

And President Barack Obama's decision to pursue actions on guns on the federal level will likely add momentum as GOP legislators will be able to contrast their actions at the state level with what's happening with D.C.

Plus long-time National Rifle Association lobbyist Marion Hammer has made it abundantly clear that she and her supporters have no plans to modify their stances on these bills. Hammer has told everyone that she will be keep pushing the legislation for as long as it takes.

Put that together and it would reasonable to assume that most, if not all, of the bills stand a good chance of reaching Scott's desk later this year. Yes, there is opposition to the various bills, including Florida State University President John Thrasher and university police chiefs on campus carry to some of Florida's sheriff's on open carry.

But the gun bills give Republicans a chance to do something that will fire up their own political base heading into what could be a chaotic election season.

There is a caveat with all of this though and that's the unresolved question of whether the new Senate districts (which appear to tilt toward Democrats) will persuade some senators that contentious issues of this sort need to be put on hold until 2017.

How will the growing power of Joe Negron and Richard Corcoran affect the process?

The general theory about the Legislature is that the influence/power of the outgoing legislative leaders begins to ebb during their second session while the clout of their successors begins to grow.

There have been exceptions to that rule over the years i.e. Dean Cannon as House speaker and John McKay as Senate president.

There will be those who will make snide comments that Corcoran, a former top aide to Rubio and current House budget chief, already has considerable sway in the House. Yes there are many signs that he does wield a good deal of influence, but expect it to get even larger.

Among some insiders who follow the process the operating theory right now is that House Speaker Steve Crisafulli and Senate President Andy Gardiner will get to watch their top priorities pass in the opening days of the session. (For Crisafulli, a potential Agriculture Commissioner candidate, that's a comprehensive water bill, while for Gardiner it's bills to aid families with children who have developmental disabilities.)

After that moment of comity, the rest of the session will be conducted in Corcoran and Negron's shadow. That could affect plenty of important bills, whether it's Negron's support of a measure to legalize/regulate fantasy sports to the judiciary reforms that Corcoran has already promised to push through.

Other considerations: Negron, an attorney, has clashed in the past with the insurance industry so that may make it hard for them to push through changes opposed by trial attorneys such as the revamp of assignment of benefits. Corcoran - along with his successor Rep. Jose Oliva - have expressed skepticism about for targeted business incentives like those championed by Scott or for items such as film incentives or subsidies to sports teams and operations.

Will this really be a do-nothing year for the Florida Legislature?

Talk to most lobbyists and they will quietly concur: This may be a really tough year to get anything substantial passed.

The reasons are many, starting with the epic battles of last year (see No. 1) to what appears to be an unpredictable election year (see Trump, Donald.)

There is a feeling right now that any attempt to move major changes/reforms in key areas will be difficult. It's not just the gambling deal with the tribe. This could flow to everything else including the types of tax cuts, health care changes pursued by the House to some of the environmental bills being pursued to alimony reform and major education bills. If Republican leaders are intent on putting aside any public disagreements then the easiest way may be to just deep-six many of the more contentious proposals.

As of this past weekend, 1,644 bills have been filed which does appear to put the Legislature on pace to meet last year's totals so maybe legislators themselves remain somewhat optimistic that they can things done. There is always a natural tendency for the Legislature to try to fix/improve/change things and have something to campaign about in the fall.

But the most substantial year for legislation in recent years was 2011 when you had a new governor and a supermajority in the Legislature following the 2010 wave year for the GOP. That track record suggests that 2016 will be relatively quiet.