The Fine Print

And just like that - Gov. Rick Scott cuts ties to Let's Get to Work

So a funny thing happened on Sunday.

Florida Gov. Rick Scott's image and his name and videos disappeared from the Let's Get to Work website. (The photo on the right was taken last Thursday.)

Consider his disappearance just another sure sign of his expected jump into the race for U.S. Senate against incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson. Scott is planning to make a "major" and "big" announcement about his political future on Monday in Orlando. 

Scott first started Let's Get to Work in the heat of the 2010 campaign for governor as an electioneering communication organization amid potential fears that the governor's self-funded campaign would bust a spending cap that could result in Republican primary opponent Bill McCollum getting a dollar-for-dollar match from public financing. Scott sued in federal court and eventually won an important ruling that declared the spending cap law unconstitutional. But the organization remained in play that whole campaign season.

After ECOs as they were known were eliminated by the Legislature, Let's Get to Work became a political committee that then assisted Scott's re-election. But even after he won a second term, the committee paid for television ads meant to push Scott's agenda through a sometimes recalcitrant GOP-controlled Legislature.

But the problem with the committee for Scott is that it relied on large corporate donations, taking checks in from various groups whose business can be affected by Scott and the Legislature. (U.S. Sugar, for example, gave more than $600,000 over a three-year period. Private prison providers, health care providers, utilities, business associations are among the long list of those who gave money.)

So in order to remain complaint under federal election law while he runs for U.S. Senate Scott needed to distance himself from his creation. Hence the makeover of the website this weekend.

It was already clear that the end was coming. Donations stop flowing into the political committee in the last few months. Records _ including those were self-reported by the committee _ show that at this point that Let's Get to Work has less than $200,000 in its bank accounts. The committee has spent more than $57 million since March 2014.

While Scott's name and image have vanished from the website, it now states that "Let’s Get to Work is supported by Lieutenant Governor Carlos Lopez-Cantera.  Its chairman, Abby Dupree, is also associated with this organization."

This was apparently news to Lopez-Cantera, who Scott appointed in January 2014 right ahead of his re-election campaign.

Brian Swensen, who served as campaign manager for Lopez-Cantera's U.S. Senate bid in 2016, said neither he or Lopez-Cantera were aware that the LG was still being associated with Let's Get to Work.

Now while the official Let's Get to Work website has been wiped the videos and ads that the committee did on behalf of Scott still remain on YouTube. 

(UPDATE: Matt Dixon with Politico Florida reported on Sunday night that the New Republican Super PAC has also removed all references to Scott. Scott became chairman of the group last year, but he has to sever his connections to the organization once he becomes a federal candidate.)

The elephant in the room for Florida Republicans

As the Republican National Convention kicks off this coming week the official word is that everything is a-o.k. with Florida Republicans.

Despite that fact that many of the state's 99 Florida delegates supported other candidates ahead of the primaries none of them have been wishing out loud that someone else besides Donald Trump was the presumptive GOP nominee. No talk of blocking delegates from attending or lawsuits.

"The Florida delegation is totally united,'' said Republican Party of Florida Chairman Blaise Ingoglia on CNN on Saturday.

Yet while the delegation will certainly follow the rules and give all 99 Florida votes to Trump a lot of questions remain about the state of the party and the fact that top Republicans in the state are divided into factions.

There's a whole long list of things to consider (including the fact that former Gov. Jeb Bush and his staunchest supporters aren't on board with Trump) but let's just start with the strange situation with the Republican primary for U.S. Senate after incumbent U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio went back on his oft-repeated promise to not to run for election.

Most of the other GOP candidates jumped out once Rubio changed his mind. But Manatee County homebuilder and political newcomer Carlos Beruff didn't. And that was just fine with GOP governor Rick Scott, who came close to endorsing Beruff over Rubio (seen here campaigning for Scott's re-election.) (Also worth noting: Rubio has not been endorsed by Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi, who has a speaking slot at the convention.)

Yet at the same time - Scott's own lieutenant governor Carlos Lopez-Cantera is now actively campaigning for his good friend Rubio and against Beruff.

Beruff this past week went on Florida airwaves with an ad that smacked Rubio, saying he wasn't backing Trump and suggested it had to do with Rubio' s stance on immigration. Lopez-Cantera was the first to fire back by citing Beruff's decision to back Charlie Crist in the 2010 U.S. Senate race (even after Crist had switched from being a Republican to being an independent.) 

"He’s a Crist insider who values political opportunity over Florida’s conservative principles,'' Lopez-Cantera said in a statement distributed by the Rubio campaign.

Then a Super PAC supporting Rubio said it was going up with its own ad to go after Beruff.

Adding to this mix was the suggestion - although knocked down by the Beruff campaign - that maybe, just maybe Beruff was staying in the race against Rubio not to win - but to build his name recognition in a possible bid for governor in 2018.

Scott, talking to one of his former top aides, even chimed in and said that "my experience with Carlos is, whatever he puts his mind to, he’s going to be successful. Whether that’s trying to make sure his customers get what they want, or anything else, Carlos will be successful.”

For those not completely immersed in inside Capitol Circle talk - that's a shot at the presumed campaign of Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam. The icy relationship between Putnam and Scott goes back years. You can bet there are people whispering to Putnam that he needs to be prepared so that he isn't "McCollumed" - a reference to the fact that then Attorney General Bill McCullom was considered a shoo-in for the GOP nomination for governor in 2010 until Scott jumped in at the last minute and self-funded his campaign.

Then there's the whole money thing for all Republicans.

Despite having no announced plans beyond 2018, Scott keeps raising money for his Let's Get to Work political committee and not the Republican Party of Florida as part of the continued fallout after Ingoglia won the chairmanship back in early 2015 over Scott's own handpicked candidate.

Scott has raised more than $1.8 million so far this year for his committee of which he transferred $95,000 back in January to the party. Yes there's a persistent rumor that Scott may run for U.S. Senate, but it's important to point out under campaign finance laws that Scott can't directly use this money - which is from corporate donations - for a federal race.

Now it's true that the Republican National Committee has put in money into the state that has been used to hire ground staff, but what message does it send to donors and others that the state's leading Republican isn't helping out his own party that much?

Lots of political insiders in Tallahassee keep grumbling about the situation and grumbling whether or not Scott's recalcitrance is diverting resources that could at least pay for certain types of party expenses. And remember the Beruff situation? That could increase pressure on Putnam to raise more money for his political committee. (Putnam did give the state party a $25,000 check in June.)

Of course none of this is totally surprising given the awkward relationship Scott has had since he knocked off McCollum even though the veteran politician had support from many establishment Republicans. In the background are GOP consultants with competing agendas and competing candidates ahead of the 2018 elections.

Maybe it's not a big problem.

After all Florida's Democrats continue to have their own history of problems come election time and the rise-and-fall of presidential campaigns has usually been more dependent on the the actual campaigns and not the state party. (There's still bad blood between state operatives and the campaign of 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney as state people contended Romney's folks ignored their advice ahead of a narrow loss to President Barack Obama.)

But after close to 20 years of GOP domination it's still out of character to see so many fault lines and shifting loyalties.

Add it all up and it could matter in a swing state where only a few thousand  - or few hundred ballots - can make a difference in the leader of the free world.

What will Rick Scott version 5.0 look like?

This Friday another era comes to a close for Florida Gov. Rick Scott.

That's when Melissa Sellers will give way to Kim McDougal (both pictured left) as McDougal takes on the sometimes overwhelming job as chief of staff for Scott.

Sellers, who once worked for former Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, is remaining in Tallahassee and opening her own consulting firm.

This much is clear: McDougal and Sellers have different backgrounds, different resumes and different styles. McDougal is a veteran state employee who has spent most of her career focused on education and only recently made a deep dive into the political realm.

The big change for her came in 2014 when she went on leave from her job in the governor's office as an education analyst to help with Scott's re-election campaign. McDougal helped draw up Scott's education platform for his campaign but she was deeply involved with Scott's tightrope walk on how to deal with Common Core.

One of McDougal's jobs that summer was to meet with groups deeply opposed to Common Core, which still remain embedded in the standards that Florida is using in its public schools. McDougal's outreach was successful enough to win an endorsement from one of the groups on the eve of the election. (Which was probably important in a contest decided by just 64,000 votes out of 6 million cast.)

Because of her lengthy experience the expectation is that McDougal will retain her oversight of education matters for Scott. And that probably means no dramatic swings away from current policies or a need to make any big personnel changes. (Scott has been a pretty firm supporter of Education Commissioner Pam Stewart.)

Word is that after the departures of Sellers and General Counsel Tim Cerio other people working in the governor's office - including Deputy Chief of Staff (and former Louisiana resident) Frank Collins will remain in their same roles.

But the real big question for Capitol insiders - and ultimately Floridians - is whether or not Gov. Scott will pivot once again with a new chief of staff in place.

Because one of the most interesting aspects of Scott's five-plus years in office is that he has been willing to alter his style, his interactions and sometimes even his policies based on the input from those closest to him at the time.

There are those who speculate that Sellers will remain a trusted voice and may be doing a warm up routine for a potential 2018 U.S. Senate run for Scott. (Although there is a division of opinion about this as well.)

Another maxim, however, is that "no one gets out of Scott World alive." This means that once someone is removed from the orbit of influence it's impossible to get back in. (Key example: Sellers was Scott's campaign manager during a time when he was focused on the campaign. After the re-election, he installed her in as chief of staff in place of Adam Hollingsworth. Word is that Hollingsworth didn't know this was coming.)

Going all the way back to the start there are clear lines of demarcation for Scott when one person leaves and another steps in.

His first few months in 2011 Scott was combative with the press, with the Legislature and came on strong with a Tea Party influenced agenda that including killing high speed rail between Tampa and Orlando. Lobbyists were barred from meeting with Scott and top governor's office staff. The chief of staff at the time was officially Mike Prendergast, but the view is that the person who had the most influence at the time was his senior adviser Mary Anne Carter. Carter was a complete outsider to Tallahassee and once she left her position she didn't hang around in town.

But Prendergast (and Carter) were followed by Steve MacNamara, a long-time veteran of the Tallahassee scene who has been a university professor, a lobbyist and held stints as the chief of staff for two legislative leaders. It was MacNamara who tried to ease tensions with the press and tried to steer Scott into a more cooperative relationship with the Legislature. The blanket ban on lobbyists was lifted. Suddenly Scott was dressing more informally and holding lengthy sessions with the media in the governor's office. Scott visited newspaper editorial boards and scheduled work days to interact with normal Floridians.

MacNamara, however, departed in the summer of 2012 amid a series of articles detailing his role in contracts and his interactions with agencies. (Later it would be revealed in emails that MacNamara's influence with Scott was severely tested during the 2012 session of the Florida Legislature. Emails showed that MacNamara tried in vain to get the governor to veto a bill creating Florida Polytechnic University while encouraging him to approve a bill that would have given additional tuition raising power to University of Florida and Florida State University.)

He was followed by Hollingsworth, whose main job was to figure out how to rehabilitate Scott in such a way that he would have a shot at getting re-elected even though poll numbers suggested it was near impossible task. Hollingsworth was seen as someone who would quickly urge Scott to deal with potential problems and embarrassments heading into the 2014 elections. Former Lt. Gov. Jennifer Carroll has said it was Hollingsworth who showed up to tell her that the governor wanted to resign following her questioning by law-enforcement authorities investigating a veterans charity engaged in what was deemed to be illegal gambling. (The charity had hired Carroll before she ran with Scott but no charges were ever brought against her.)

Hollingsworth was at the helm during one of Scott's most notable moments during his first term: His complete 180-degree turn on Medicaid expansion and the Affordable Care Act pushed by President Barack Obama. Even today, it remains somewhat remarkable that Scott - who railed against Obamacare and even had run television ads attacking it - would come out publicly in favor of accepting billions in federal aid to expand who was eligible for Medicaid. (Under Sellers - and after his re-election - Scott would reverse course again and side with the Florida House in 2015 in opposition to Medicaid expansion.)

Other pivots, not as dramatic, also occurred such as Scott's decision to back in-state tuition rates for the children of illegal immigrants despite winning election in a 2010 platform that promised support for a crackdown on illegal immigration.

Starting under Hollingsworth (who brought on Sellers to serve as communications director) and continuing ever since she took over, Scott returned to limiting interactions with the press in Tallahassee. He cut down on appearances on conservative radio stations and instead shifted to appearances on national television outlets. And a combative side of Scott returned. He sued the federal government over Medicaid funding and he ordered an investigation of Planned Parenthood clinics last summer. Scott has ratcheted back up his criticisms of Obama. His push to get rid of the Florida Department of Law Enforcement Commissioner led to allegations, apologies and lawsuits.

Yet ever since his re-election and Sellers ascension to chief of staff Scott has had a difficult time with his fellow Republicans in the Legislature and has had trouble winning passage of his priorities. There's lots of finger-pointing as to who is to blame (is it staff? Is it Scott's decision to not raise money for the state party? Is it ideologues in the House?) but the net result is that his two top priorities this year, including a $250 million business incentive pool, were largely ignored by legislators. There are some who say that Scott is isolated from those in the GOP and that has contributed to the problem.

But this month Scott did make a tactical decision to limit his losses. Instead of drawing out the battle he signed this year's state budget and did not engage in the long line of budget vetoes that some lawmakers had been expecting. (Senate budget chairman Tom Lee predicted $500 million in vetoes at one point and Scott did roughly half that.) Talk of possible veto overrides has disappeared and the good thing for Scott is that legislators probably won't return to the Capitol until November.

The governor still has a tremendous amount of time left in his second term in office so there's plenty of time for him to repair relations if he wants to. By tapping McDougal he has found someone who has a good idea about how the capital works - but is less familiar with the political ramifications of every decision that the governor makes.

Scott of course will continue to place a large part of his focus on the state's economy and job creation since it's the message that has helped him in two elections (and remains a top concern for most Floridians.)

But will he take a more pragmatic approach on dealing with the Legislature, dealing with the press, and figuring out what to do in the myriad of issues that confront him on a daily basis? For example: One of the less touched on elements of Sellers time as chief of staff is that Scott brought in Julie Jones to run the Department of Corrections. While problems remains in the state's troubled prison agency, there are signs that Jones has tried to reform the department (although she too lost out this session on getting the Legislature to bless all of here proposed changes.)

So the question is will Scott change direction yet again with McDougal now on board?

Will the next two and a half years be relatively quiet and will the governor and McDougal have a caretaker attitude, or will there be new initiatives, new promises, and new conflicts with the two incoming legislative leaders? The next House speaker - Richard Corcoran - has a lengthy list of contentious items he wants to tackle that could prove challenging for Scott.

Will Scott - who never had been a politician until running for governor - present Floridians with another version of himself? Or will he stick to what he's given voters so far?

Rick Scott's top challenges for his second term

Florida Gov. Rick Scott, considered one of the most vulnerable governors in the nation last year, will this week be sworn into a second term and take his place in state history as just the second GOP governor to earn re-election.

Scott's priorities _ which are likely to be reflected in his inauguration day speech _ won't be much of a surprise since he is expected to repeat what he's been saying for some time now.

Scott will stress jobs, the state's economic recovery, tax cuts, as well as other key parts of Scott's re-election platform such as keeping college tuition costs down.

But key questions remain, including whether or not Scott gets any kind of "honeymoon" after his narrow re-election. And additionally, how will Scott fare with the distractions, scandals and other problems that loom on the horizon?

Any of these could be a test for Scott and his campaign-hardened team led by Chief of Staff Melissa Sellers. After winning by roughly 64,000 votes how much political capital does Scott really have, and more importantly, how will he react if legislators, lobbyists and other in Tallahassee start worrying about the next set of campaigns instead of Scott?

it can be argued of course that as long as the state's economy continues to recover that Scott has met his primary challenge and the one that he ran on.

But there's plenty of challenges Scott will confront in the coming year that could cause him problems and harm his eventual legacy.

Here's just some of them:

WILL REPUBLICANS REMAIN TRUE TO HIM? One of the most immediate challenges is what type of control Scott will retain over the Republican Party of Florida. Scott, with input from people like Sellers and former chief of staff Adam Hollingsworth, helped put people in place at the RPOF whose primary job was focused on getting Scott re-elected.

But for a variety of reasons there are those who aren't entirely trustful. With possible presidential campaigns for either U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and former Gov. Jeb Bush gearing up, those loyal to Rubio and Bush harbor lingering doubts about the party. Look no further than the decision to give the keynote speech in the party fundraising dinner to Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal instead of trying to tap someone like Rubio.

The big test for Scott will come later this month when Leslie Dougher tries to win a new term as chairman of the state party. An early endorsement from Scott for Dougher did not dissuade Blaise Ingolia, a newly-elected state representative, from challenging her. Due to party rules Scott has a great deal sway over the executive committee, but a defeat of his hand-picked candidate would be a bit of a blow as he starts his second term.

ROLLING THE DICE AGAIN: Last year Scott tried to come up with a new compact with The Seminole Tribe of Florida that would allow the tribe to continue to enjoy parts of its ongoing gambling monopoly while giving a sizable boost to state revenues.

State legislative leaders made it clear that the deal would be dead-on-arrival due to the ongoing battle between other gambling interests, including those seeking to bring resort styled casinos to South Florida. Key portions of the existing deal with the tribe will expire this summer. Some legislative leaders, such as Senate President Andy Gardiner, have made it obvious that the end of this deal is not a major concern even if means the state would lose out on several hundred millions a year by allowing the existing deal to end.

Can Scott come up with a deal that keeps the tribe happy, keeps the money flowing into state coffers, yet can also get enough votes in the Florida Legislature?

PRISON DEATHS: Scott late last year agreed to give Julie Jones, the former head of the Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles, a $160,000 a year job (on top of her state pension) to come out of retirement and take over the Department of Corrections.

Jones is stepping into the post at a time when the agency is under fire for inmate deaths and allegations of cover-ups. Right now the Florida Department of Law Enforcement is investigating dozens of inmate deaths and even today a legislative panel is expected to delve into all of the problems at the state's prisons.

Scott, who initially wanted to slash prison spending when he was running in 2010, has tried to keep his distance from the ongoing problems. But the ongoing investigations and problems with some of the privatization efforts pushed under his watch may put the scandal at his doorstep.

LEGISLATURE GOING ITS OWN WAY: Republicans who control the Florida Legislature went out of their way in 2014 to ensure Scott had a successful session as he moved into his re-election campaign. But there's been the feeling that it was an uneasy detente. Scott had a rocky relationship with many legislators when he first came into office because he defeated the GOP establishment candidate Bill McCollum.

Now with nothing else to run for _ right now at least _ how cooperative will legislators be? Gardiner has maintained Scott retains a good deal of sway due to his veto power. And there are reports from legislators that Sellers herself has tried to go out of her way to reach out to them in a friendly manner.

Some of Scott's priorities such as boosting school funding should be an easy sell to lawmakers.

The recent news that the budget surplus increased could also make it easier for Scott to get legislators to going along with additional tax cuts. But $1 billion over the next two years? Permanent elimination of taxes on manufacturing? A property tax constitutional amendment? Some of these may prove to be a bit more challenging once legislators delve into the nitty gritty details.

Other flashpoints could flare up as well: Gardiner himself during a session with reporters said that if there was a push to approve a new deal with the Seminole Tribe that he wanted a full-blown look at the operations of the Department of Lottery. Is that a sign that Lottery Secretary Cynthia O'Connell could find herself in for a difficult confirmation process?

Will legislators also fault Scott for how his Department of Health has handled implementation of last year's medical marijuana law? Some Democrats are already suggesting that the department may be trying to stall implementation because there is an opposition to the law from within the administration.

Put it all together and it could mean that even this year Scott could have a bumpy session.

PUBLIC RECORDS BATTLE: Scott remains locked in a legal battle over how his administration handled public records that is just one of the reminders of how the former CEO turned politician has dealt with the state's open records law. The governor is being sued for allegedly violating the state's public records law.

Some may view the motives of Tallahassee attorney Steven Andrews as suspect. But Andrews has been successful in many of his endeavors, including winning his initial lawsuit over a land dispute with the state as well as his defense of one-time aide Carletha Cole in charges that she illegally taped another aide in the lieutenant governor's office.

Chief Judge Charles Francis will be confronted with deciding whether or not he believes that Scott's office violated the public records law and did not timely produce records records for Andrews. The practical implication of an adverse ruling would be limited since we are talking about a civil lawsuit, but it would still prove to be historic if a judge found fault with the governor.

SCHOOL DAYS: This coming year Florida is expected to transition away from the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test and replace it with a new test intended to measure how students fare on the new "Florida standards" that are largely modeled after Common Core.

Common Core remains a radioactive term with some conservatives. Scott has tried to assuage critics by asking Education Commissioner Pam Stewart to convene a group to look at the standards once again. Meanwhile Stewart is also being asked to "investigate" the use of testing in Florida schools.

The most immediate problem is ensuring that the new test is administered smoothly and that there aren't any problems in evaluating the work of students.

But the continued focus on Common Core means that it will continue to a potential distraction _ and political problem _ for Scott and state legislators.

The other dynamic, however, is Scott will find himself confronting Bush and his allies if the governor tries to dismantle any of the main elements of the Bush's education reforms that were put in while he was in office.

HIGHER EDUCATION: Scott could also create friction with business leaders and legislators over his ideas for higher education as well.

Scott has pushed vigorously to roll back tuition hikes - and take away the power to let universities raise their prices. In his inauguration speech, Scott will expand that focus to suggest there should be limits on graduate tuition hikes as well.

But Scott's austerity pitch will come at a time when some universities like the University of Central Florida and the University of South Florida are coming up with plans to expand their campuses.

While it's true tuition doesn't pay for new buildings, any expansion brings with it higher operating costs, which have to be paid from either tuition or state general revenue.

Schools such as Florida State University led by new president John Thrasher want more money to boost faculty salaries in an effort to move FSU into the ranks of the nation's leading public universities.

While legislators backed Scott's tuition plan during a campaign year, it may be harder for them to ignore the requests from university presidents _ and local leaders _ who want their schools to grow.

THE NEXT ELECTION: Scott has been fairly good at avoiding getting too involved in presidential politics _ or even other significant state and local races.

But he might find that difficult as both the 2016 presidential election and the 2018 state elections begin to heat up.

It's widely believed that Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam will seek the governor's office in 2018. Putnam and Scott don't have a close relationship, partly due to the fact that Scott has several times threatened to veto Putnam's top legislative priorities.

There are signs - like in last year's final Cabinet meeting - where Putnam has shown that he now has no problem challenging Scott. That could grow as 2018 moves closer and Putnam decides to show even more of his independence.

Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater may run for governor as well and may also be eager to distance himself from Scott.

Presidential politics could also prove to be a complicating factor.

When Scott ran for a second term, he relied more on Texas Gov. Rick Perry and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie than someone like Bush. (Bush probably spent as much time or more campaigning for Putnam's re-election as he did for Scott.)

If Christie jumped into the 2016 presidential race against Bush, would Scott be able to stay on the sidelines after all the work _ and money _ Christie delivered to him?

What would Scott do if the Legislature decided to change Florida's primary date in an effort to help Jeb? Would he go along, or veto the bill?

And if Rubio were to bypass re-election and run for president what would Scott himself do?

Scott considered running for U.S. Senate in 2010 but opted instead to run for governor. When asked recently about his future, Scott said he ran for governor and has no plans to run for anything else.

Would that change, however, if it were an open seat? Or would Scott back someone like Attorney General Pam Bondi _ who he does have a good relationship with _ over other Republicans who also might be interested in seeking to replace Rubio?

Who might be the real winner on Election Day? The Florida Legislature

Charlie Crist and Rick Scott will head into their second debate on Wednesday night, hoping to create some momentum in what appears to be an ever so tight race for governor.

What might get lost in the back-and-forth and barbs about fraud, Scott Rothstein, and HCA/Columbia is how each governor is prepared to deal with the political future and reality that will exist no matter which one of them wins.

And that reality is that the Republican-controlled Florida Legislature will have a lot to say on how the next four years go...for both candidates.

The fault lines will be obvious for Crist.

He has already said he's ready to issue an executive order to try to carry out Medicaid expansion if the Legislature remains recalcitrant to the idea as it has the last two years.

This is actually not a new tactic for Crist. He has done this before, on issues like voting, where he has dared the Legislature to sue him on issues he knows enjoy some level of popularity. In the past, state legislators were hesitant to do this (save then-House Speaker Marco Rubio's challenge to a gaming compact with the Seminole Tribe of Florida.)

But you can rest assured that on Medicaid expansion the legal challenge - at least from the House (where one of the chief expansion opponents is Speaker-in-waiting Richard Corcoran) - will come quickly.

Crist has already said several times that he thinks he can work with the Legislature because he will "have a pen." That threat, however, would be rendered useless if Republicans gain a veto-proof majority as some polls are suggesting. You can bet a Legislature chagrined by the prospect of a Crist governorship will not hesitate to challenge Crist at every opportunity.

A Crist governorship could be a bonanza for political and policy reporters who would get to witness an endless game of brinkmanship as it happened at times under Florida's last Democratic governor Lawton Chiles. Just think of the joys of a possible mid-summer session to craft a final budget deal in order to keep state government running. (And a wonderful side debate of who constitutes a "essential" or "non-essential" state employee.)

Except Crist might not be the only one who could be at odds with legislative leaders.

The plain fact is that when talked to privately many GOP legislators continue to have discomfort with Scott four years after he knocked off GOP establishment favorite BIll McCollum and contended on primary night that the Tallahassee insiders would be "crying in their cocktails." Scott has an uneasy alliance with many Republican heavy-weights in the state who have remained quiet as he brought in outsiders - many of them connected to Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal - to run the Republican Party of Florida.

Let's look at the facts of his four years in office. It really wasn't until this year - when he was down in the polls against Crist - that the Legislature pivoted from three years of a respectful, yet standoffish at times relationship, to giving way to help carry out Scott's top priorities.

There's an argument that part of this was due to Scott's realization after months without a lieutenant governor that maybe he needed someone like Carlos Lopez-Cantera, a former state legislator from Miami, to broker deals. But lawmakers, including House Speaker Will Weatherford, made a conscious decision to help Scott out on such issues as a tuition break for Dreamers, or eliminating the tuition law that was passed at the insistence of the Legislature (and signed into law by a reluctant Crist.)

Many of Scott's top priorities from his 2010 election - such as a massive cut in the state's corporate income tax - were politely rejected by the Legislature.

Want a more recent example? Just look at the decision by Scott to have Lopez-Cantera and Chief of Staff Adam Hollingsworth gauge support for a potential new deal with the Seminoles. As reported recently by The Associated Press, the goal of this deal was come up with one that outshined the one that Crist approved and get more money for the state. But the deal was a tough sell especially since it would require yes votes from Democrats in order to pass and was opposed by the state's pari-mutuels and those supporting Las Vegas-styled casinos. The entire effort quickly collapsed.

That's not to say there won't be a lot more common ground between Scott and members of his own party than between them and Crist.

But many of the Tallahassee insiders who Scott predicted would be crying now fully expect the Legislature to be the place where the real action - and real power - will lie during the next four years. That's more likely since Scott's power over legislators will wane as his second term goes on. Even as powerful as he was then-Gov. Jeb Bush got into a lot more rows with the Legislature after his re-election.

And how much currency with Scott bring with him if he barely defeats Crist in the same fashion where he barely defeated Alex Sink in 2010?

Scott's platform this time around has been a lot less bolder than it was in 2010. He has mostly crafted it around ideas like increasing spending on environment and education. Scott has promised to continue to grow the economy, but there's no 7-7-7 plan this time around with a sweeping promise to create 700,000 (or 1.7 million jobs) by cutting billions in taxes and spending.

What ultimately might be more important are the platforms of Corcoran, soon to be House Speaker Rep. Steve Crisafulli, Incoming Senate President Andy Gardiner, Sen. Bill Galvano (and the yet to be crowned Senate president for the 2017-18 time period.) Or it could even be the platforms of the NEXT potential Republican governor - Adam Putnam or Jeff Atwater.

Texting Adam Hollingsworth (a peek behind the curtain)

Adam Hollingsworth, the chief of staff for Gov. Rick Scott and one of the most important people in Scott's inner circle, doesn't really use email for official business.

A random check of his official emails show that Hollingsworth routinely uses his Outlook account to schedule meetings and perform some of the management functions - such as signing on performance reviews - of his staff.

But texting?

On the very least it looks like at one point of time that some official business was done through texts.

But recent emails and messages would suggest that the Executive Office of the Governor has adopted an official policy to discourage the use of text messages.

Consider this Jan. 10 text from Hollingsworth: "EOG staff does not conduct public businss via test messaging. You may contact me at 850-488-5603 or [email protected]."

An Feb. 10 an email from Dawn Hanson, director of administration for EOG, that was eventually forwarded to newly-installed budget director Cynthia Kelly states: "The COS has a no texting policy for the EOG. This practice has been in place for quite awhile and we are in the process of actually turning off the texting features on state phones."

When asked this past week, however, Frank Collins, a spokesman for Scott, said no such policy was in place.

Now all of this comes amid an ongoing public records lawsuit against Scott and other top state officials. The lawsuit filed by Tallahassee attorney Steven Andrews - a persistent critic of Scott - contends that that state officials are flouting the state's public records law. One example is that it took Andrews more than a year to get three months worth of text messages from a former top aide to Scott.

But Scott's Office of Open Government has turned over text messages made by Hollingsworth over the last several months that show that lobbyists and other elected officials would occasionally reach out to Scott's right-hand man via text message.

These texts touch on issues such as Scott's search for a lieutenant governor, appointments and legislative issues that have become debated during the 2014 session.

Rep. Frank Artiles, R-Miami, texted Hollingsworth on Nov. 29 of last year.

"Adam, would the governor support in state tuition for us citizens? It's great PR for Hispanic voters and the students are voters. The fix is simple language adding ''or the last two years in a Florida high school."

A second text states: "Nothing to so with illegal immigrants." Hollingsworth asks if he can call Artiles back about the issue.

(Since this time, Scott has come out in favor of a bill that in fact allows children who came to the United States illegally to receive in-state tuition. But Scott's support is because the Senate version includes his push to get rid of a state law that lets state universities charge tuition above the amount set annually by the Legislature.)

An Oct. 9 text message from Gaston Cantens, a former state legislator who now works for Florida Crystals, states: "Any word on the 3rd DCA apptment? I'm hearing this will be the third hispanic judge to retire from 3rd dca under scott and replaced by anglos." (On Oct. 18 Scott appointed Edwin Scales, a Key West attorney, radio host and former politician and a member of the Florida Bar of Governors to the court. He replaced Judge Angel Cortinas. It would appear that Scales was the second, not third, person appointed by Scott to replace a Hispanic. Scott appointed Cuban-born Ivan Fernandez in 2011 to the court.)

Sept. 18 text from Rep. Marti Coley: "Any news on a Liberty Co. Superintendent? The suspense about the Liberty County Superintendent is killing me."

Randy Miller with the Florida Retail Federation on Sept. 17 of last year wrote: "Enjoyed our tax relief suggestions meeting the other day. The only way to get tax relief directly to Joe Lunchbucket is through sales tax holidays. Expanding the Back to School Holiday from 3 days to 9 days would be a big hit with soccer moms and parents of all stripes. For those without school children, you could institute an Energy-Star Holiday which would have multiple benefits, savings on utility bills and environmental benefits...Great PR for Gov if he pushes this in his budget."

Newly-elected Rep. Mike Hill sent a message to Scott via text through Hollingsworth, telling him on Sept. 4 that "really liked' the governor's tax-cutting speech at Americans For Prosperity and that "it would be an honor for me to carry a tax/fee cutting bill for you."

On the issue of a search for LG there were several, including one from Hillsborough County Commissioner Sandra Murman, who on the short-list at one time.

Murman on Nov. 8: "Hi Adam. Thank you again for coming to Tampa to interview me. I am honored to be considred for the Governor' dynamic team."

A few weeks later hospital executive and former top Jeb Bush aide Alan Levine texted: "Sandy Murman called me Monday. Will call u tomorrow to download. Have you considered Susan Latvala? Squishy R from Pinellas. Happy Thanksgiving!!!"(Latvala, a Pinellas County Commissioner, wound up endorsing Democrat Alex Sink in the battle to replace the late U.S. Rep. Bill Young.)

On Jan. 14 the day that Scott announced the appointment of Carlos Lopez-Cantera as his LG Allan Bense texted Hollingsworth: "Brilliant move today." Bense, the former House speaker, is chairman of the Florida State University board and father-in-law of current speaker Will Weatherford.

Is Gov. Scott about to declare victory in the tuition war?

One of the more intense, yet largely behind-the-scenes fights between the Florida Legislature and Gov. Rick Scott during his first three years in office occurred last year over the issue of college tuition.

But it appears that the Legislature is all but ready to declare a truce during an election year.

The Senate Education Committee today is taking up a proposed committee bill (SPB 7036) that would wipe out a clause in state law that allows university tuition to go up by the rate of inflation if state legislators do not include a tuition hike in the state budget. (UPDATE: The committee approved the bill with little discussion or debate.)

The law dates back to a 2007 special session and was signed into law by then-Gov. Charlie Crist. Only a handful of legislators, most of them Democrats and Republicans like Sen. Mike Fasano voted no. Current Lieutenant Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera voted yes.

Jump ahead to the spring of 2013: Scott wanted to keep university tuition as is, but he was challenged primarily by GOP leaders in the Legislature, including House Speaker Will Weatherford. Weatherford argued at the time that tuition in Florida was cheap and that students should share part of the cost.

The Legislature included a 3 percent tuition hike in the state budget - but Scott vetoed it. Scott went so far as to label a tuition hike a "tax increase" even though he had previously been ok with them.

But then there was a twist: There was an argument that despite the veto the inflation index would still kick in. That meant that tuition would go up 1.7 percent and generate about $10.5 million statewide.

This apparently didn't sit well with the Scott administration.

The Tampa Bay Times reported that the administration tried to get university presidents to sign a letter promising they would not raise tuition by any amount. But the presidents balked and refused to do it.

Meanwhile, however, the Florida Board of Governors - which is the state panel responsible for setting statewide policy for all universities - refused to take a stance after it became clear that the Legislature and the Scott administration were at odds over this.

Emails obtained by The Associated Press show that one House budget analyst emailed the chief financial officer for the state university system to say he was "thrilled" the university presidents "stood up to the bullying."

University of Central Florida President John Hitt wanted the state university system to issue a legal ruling, but it did not. A state university system top official acknowledged in another email "we are in a quandary."

In the end the boards of individual universities started raising tuition by the inflation index amount of 1.7 percent - but the Board of Governors never voted to authorize the hikes despite language in another state law that would suggest tuition hikes need to be approved by the panel.

Peter Antonacci, the governor's general counsel, bluntly told the University of South Florida that such a vote by university boards was "simply not mandated under the law." Antonacci argued that the inflationary tuition hike could only be implemented if the Legislature had done nothing.

From his email: "The votes taken by the Board Trustees of certain state universities to increase tuition based upon section 1009.24(4)(b), F.S. fundamentally misconstrue the operation of the statute and its interaction with the constitutional powers of the Legislature in relation to a gubernatorial veto."

Antonacci went even further: "The fact that the Governor exercised his line-item veto authority of that legislatively-chosen tuition amount does not remove that provision from existence, as if it had never been written at all. The veto authority is the 'power to nullify, or at least suspend, legislative intent. It is not designed to alter or amend legislative intent. Although suspended by the gubernatorial veto, the item nonetheless continues to exist because it may thereafter be revived by a legislative override."

This past fall the Board of Governors appeared ready to take steps to avoid future arguments about the inflationary index. In September, the board quietly approved the development of a rule that would make it clear tuition rates would go up automatically each year by the rate of inflation if legislators did not increase tuition in the budget.

But that rule was never passed.

It was supposed to be adopted in November, but it did not show up on the agenda. When asked a spokeswoman for the Board of Governors stated that it needed to be delayed for further development and that it was unlikely it would be considered before this spring.

A change in state law of course would eliminate the need for the rule.

The passage of the bill would also allow Scott to point out during his re-election campaign that tuition rates stayed flat this year.

Scott did not propose a tuition hike this year when he rolled out his budget recommendations in January.

And just as importantly, Weatherford pledged this year that legislators would keep tuition flat as well. The Wesley Chapel Republican went further and said that lawmakers would scale back a separate law that currently lets universities pass a "differential" tuition hike that can be assessed above what the Florida Legislature does - as long as the overall hike is not higher than 15 percent than the existing rate.

Weatherford acknowledged that part of the reason that legislators are taking these actions are because it had become apparent that the governor was unwilling to change his stance on tuition.

Scott's hesitation to name an LG draws a lawsuit

It's been nearly 9 months since Jennifer Carroll abruptly resigned her post as lieutenant governor.

Since that time there has been plenty of speculation about who Gov. Rick Scott would pick as a replacement and when he would do it.

Well, his hesitation to act has drawn a lawsuit:

From the Associated Press story:

"A Tallahassee lobbyist and political activist on Monday asked the Florida Supreme Court to force Scott to appoint a lieutenant governor within 30 days.

In her lawsuit Barbara DeVane contends that Scott is breaking a state law that requires him to appoint a lieutenant governor.

"I just think it's time he does his job," DeVane told The Associated Press. "It's been nine months. A woman could have conceived and delivered a baby in that time."

More here

And here's a link to the full filing with the Florida Supreme Court.

As noted in a previous post from last May:

The state constitution states that there "shall be a lieutenant governor."

It's a clause that has been in the state constitution since 1968. Between 1885 and that time the person next-in-line to become governor was the Senate President.

Charley Johns, whose name became synonymous with the "Johns Committee" or the legislative panel that investigated communists and gays in the state university system, was Senate President at the time that Gov. Dan McCarty died in office in September 1953. Johns served as governor until Jan. 1955. He was thwarted in his bid to serve out the remainder of McCarty's term when LeRoy Collins defeated him in the 1954 Democratic primary.

The constitution, however, is silent on what happens if there is a vacancy in the office of lieutenant governor. That's left to state law. FS. 14.055 merely states that "upon vacancy the governor shall appoint a successor who shall serve for the remainder of the term..."

The last time a lieutenant governor stepped down it was Frank Brogan leaving shortly after he and Jeb Bush were re-elected in 2002. Brogan sought the presidency of Florida Atlantic University just days after the swearing-in. By the start of March Toni Jennings had been sworn in as a successor.

The lawsuit says that by waiting so long to name a successor to Carroll that Scott has defied the intent of the Florida Legislature.

And it goes further by stating "there would be a constitutional crisis if the Governor were to become physically or mentally incapacitated or were impeached." That's because another section of law provides for the lieutenant governor to become "acting governor" when those things happen. The lawsuit contends there is no provision in law for what should happen if the LG position is vacant before there is an acting governor.

The signs that John Thrasher won't be Florida's next LG

For weeks there have been on-again, off-again rumors that State Sen. John Thrasher was the heir apparent to the spot of lieutenant governor.

Thrasher's name, which first bubbled up last spring, has consistently been thrown out as Gov. Rick Scott's search for a replacement to Jennifer Carroll has stretched on now for eight months.

The rationale behind Thrasher has been that he would give Scott a steady veteran to help with the Republican-controlled Florida Legislature. His other positive is that as a former chairman of the Republican Party of Florida he has a good relationship with party leaders and major donors that help the party carry out its mission.

The down-side on Thrasher is that his past as a lobbyist could be used to attack the governor. Additionally Thrasher would not create a lot of attention or buzz for a re-election campaign that is expected to be close. (Although after the forced resignation of Carroll there are those who want a running mate that does not attract a lot of attention.)

Well, it may be pointless to weigh the pros and cons because the signs are that Thrasher is now focusing on getting re-elected to the state Senate in 2014 and not joining Scott as his running-mate.

Look no further than to tonight's major fundraiser that Thrasher _ who still has no announced opponent _ has planned at the TPC Sawgrass Clubhouse in Ponte Vedra Beach.

The host committee includes a lengthy list of well-known northeast Florida figures including former Jacksonville mayor John Delaney, current State Board of Education chairman Gary Chartrand, Michael Hightower, Tom Petway and former U.S. Ambassador John Rood. Another member of the host committee is Southern Strategy Group, the big-time Tallahassee lobbying powerhouse that Thrasher worked at between his stint as House speaker and his election to the state Senate.

When asked about the fundraiser, a spokeswoman for Thrasher sounded firm that he is not planning on switching from the legislative branch of government to the executive.

"John Thrasher is committed to running for re-election for the Florida Senate, as evidenced by this evening's scheduled fundraiser,'' said Sarah Bascom.

With Thrasher out of the running for LG this means speculation will return again to other political figures.

Of course Scott remains under no real legal obligation to find a LG anytime soon.

State law requires a lieutenant governor, but there is no enforceable deadline on how quickly a governor must act to replace an LG. (With the holidays coming up fast it would seem unlikely Scott would act before the end of the year.)

Asked about it earlier this week Scott would only say he was still reviewing possible candidates.

"Look, there's a lot of great people around the state that could be great lieutenant governors, so we're still going through the process,'' Scott said.