The Fine Print

Sink and McCollum by the social media numbers

As noted in a previous post, there is a bit of speculation going on about how important using social media and new media methods will matter in the 2010 elections.

The use of new media gave President Barack Obama an effective tool during the 2008 elections.

So by the numbers, how is it going in the Florida governor's race?

Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink has more than 9,500 Facebook fans and has more than 2,800 followers on Twitter. She has posted six videos to her YouTube channel over the last 10 months, including a sarcastic one that was done by having a Sink staffer videotape McCollum while talking to reporters.

Attorney General Bill McCollum by contrast has 3,660 Facebook fans and more than 3,000 followers on Twitter. He has six videos on his YouTube channel.

It's worth noting, however, that McCollum has been much more prolific on Twitter. He has posted nearly 270 tweets to Sink's 63 tweets.

What matters more - media or the message?

A scholarly political science journal concluded way, way back in 2008 that effective campaigns could find a successful strategy by going after not just the motivated supervoters, but by also targeting those who don't normally vote in every election.

A quartet of political science professors writing in the March 2008 issue of Political Behavior said that "we conclude that even in high-profile, high dollar races the most important determinant of voter turnout is voter history, but that holding this variable constant reveals a positive effect for campaign communication among "seldom voters," registered but rarely active participants who-ironically- are less likely than regular or intermittent voters to receive such communication.

"In fact, we find that those with the least active political pasts are the most likely to feel the positive effects of campaign communication,'' the article written by Professors Janine Parry, Jay Barth, Martha Kropf and E. Terrence Jones.

Put simply: It helps to reach out to voters who aren't used to the attention.

There is ample evidence that this theory played itself out in the 2008 presidential campaign especially among the campaign team of Barack Obama as it utilized everything from text messages to social media to raise large amounts of money and to motivate voters, including some of those "seldom voters" like young people and African-Americans.

The Obama strategy has been followed to some extent, according to a November 2009 Wall Street Journal article written by Peter Wallsten, by Republican gubernatorial candidates who won elections last fall.

Steve Schale, the Florida state director for the Obama campaign, said that "we used every tool that was available" including even using ads on Internet videogames as a way to target college students.

But Schale said in the end he still thinks that what social media and the Internet did was make it easier to motivate people to help out the campaigns, citing for instance a program used by the campaign that would encourage volunteers to go and physically contact voters in their own neighborhoods.

"You utilize them to do the things that traditionally win campaigns,'' said Schale, adding that "banging on someone's door" can be just as effective as a candidate appearing on television. Schale adds that it also helps to have people enthused about the candidate they are working for.

Flash forward then to this year.

If you look at the numbers, former House Speaker Marco Rubio is winning the new media war so far in the U.S. Senate race.

Rubio - who has surged past Gov. Charlie Crist in the polls for the U.S. Senate - has more than 10,000 followers on Twitter and has more than 36,000 fans on his Facebook page. Rubio has posted more than 110 videos on his YouTube page, with some videos getting more than 43,000 views.

Crist by contrast has 4,559 followers on Twitter and 9,203 fans on his Facebook page. His campaign has posted 35 videos on YouTube, with no video even getting 600 views.

But Schale is one person who doesn't think that Rubio's success is just about his utilization of media.

He contends that Rubio is succeeding because he has plugged into a frustration among conservative voters and used it against Crist.

"It's not a field of dreams and build it and they will come,'' said Schale. "If you put the Yankees on the field you are going to have a good team."

Schale adds: "I don't think we have gotten to the point where you can create that kind of movement from social media out of whole cloth."

There are those, of course, who disagree to some extent with Schale. But if Rubio wins in the primary against Crist it will be interesting to see if it is the media or the message that gets the credit.

How Marco Rubio might change campaigns forever

On Tuesday, former House Speaker Marco Rubio was on Glenn Beck's radio program.

Last week Rubio appeared on Fox News Channel with Neil Cavuto.

Rubio on March 1 spent time on an Orlando AM radio station on that caters to a conservative audience.

As Rubio's long-shot campaign has surged right past Gov. Charlie Crist in the run-up to the U.S. primary, it could be a signal to future candidates about what you need to do to win.

Rubio has taken some of the lessons from the successful 2008 presidential campaign of Barack Obama which included the effective use of social media to communicate directly with voters and just as importantly, raise money from them.

His campaign has done the following:

1. Concentrated on grassroots organization and support by criss-crossing the state and stopping at events no matter how small.

2. Utilized all forms social media effectively, whether it's uploading a video to YouTube or spending time on Twitter.

3. And spent most of his time dealing with niche media that communicates your message with the core demographic that makes up the bulk of the primary voters.

This means spending less time with traditional mainstream media outlets and not relying on earned media to get your word out.

Take this story from last week on Crist's campaign questioning what Rubio knew about the scandal involving former House Speaker Ray Sansom, who was budget chief under Rubio. Rubio declined to be interviewed. In the story about his use of a Republican Party credit card, Rubio answered questions to The Miami Herald in writing.

In fact it appears that since 2010 began Rubio's time dealing directly with the mainstream media (read:newspapers) in Florida has been limited to either articles on speeches he has given around the state to various groups or the event in Tallahassee he attended back in January before a group of reporters and editors. Rubio has not been out of the spotlight because he has been able to get an increasing amount of coverage from the Washington and national media.

Alex Burgos, a spokesman for the Rubio campaign, said that Rubio recognizes that reporters have a duty to vet candidates for the media and pointed to past stories where Rubio did talk to reporters from Florida's main newspapers.

But Burgos said that Rubio has been willing to use all types a broad range of sources, including some that allow an "unfiltered" access to a candidate.

"This campaign would not have been possible five years ago,'' said Burgos. "It allows a candidate like him to convey his message to broad audiences unfiltered and at their leisure."

If Rubio does eventually win, however, this could be viewed as a seismic shift in how the media deals with candidates in the future. Last summer Rubio got very little coverage from many of the mainstream papers who viewed his run for the U.S. Senate a quest to boost name identity for a future race. His victory, however, could compel other candidates to worry less and less about what's written about them in Florida papers and instead find other ways to communicate their message.