The Fine Print

Florida turned upside down: 5 takeaways about the 2018 election

  With just under 100 days left before Florida voters decide the crucial 2018 election, President Donald Trump held a boisterous rally on Tuesday night with 10,000 people in Tampa where he enthusiastically urged his supporters to back U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis for governor in the upcoming Republican primary.

Trump's backing of DeSantis is already being seen as a fatal blow to Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam, who for most of the last year appeared to rolling smoothly in his quest to succeed Florida Gov. Rick Scott.

1 big takeaway....The Trump primary

The rally in Tampa and the downward drag on Putnam emphatically shows the outsized importance of all things Trump in the Aug. 28 primary.

In a year when toxic algal blooms are fouling the state's waters ,the shooting at Parkland prompted a reluctant Florida Legislature to act on guns, and Stand Your Ground laws are once again being scrutinized- the defining issue in the primary remains the president.

On the GOP side, it's more than just the holding a rally and tweeting out his support. Candidates up and down the ballot in the Sunshine State are arguing with each other on whether someone is a true believer - or whether someone had once been opposed to Trump before his election in 2016. Case in point: Sen. Greg Steube unearthing old tweets by Rep. Julio Gonzalez to paint him as a "Never Trumper." 

Democrats, meanwhile, are skirmishing over who is the most-anti-Trumper, and how strong their opposition is. Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum likes to point out how he's calling for Trump's impeachment, while candidate Jeff Greene has called Trump a "traitor." Gwen Graham has called Trump a "bully' and "embarrassment." But this fervor isn't contained to just the governor's race. It's playing out in numerous congressional contests as well.

This election cycle is now worlds away from ones where issues such as class size, education, health care and job growth dominated.

In some ways, it began in 2010 when Gov. Rick Scott used criticism of President Barack Obama and fears of rising national debts as a key part of his campaign. But Scott also highlighted immigration and his plans tor turning around the state's economy as other parts of his campaign message.

Just before Trump took stage, the Putnam campaign recognized this new reality that has turned the state's politics upside down.

In a statement Putnam praised Trump, yet at the same time bemoaned that DeSantis "has released zero plans on any Florida issue since announcing his campaign." 

 2. End of traditional campaigns?

The potential demise of Putnam also shows that the tried-and-true methods used by so many candidates in the past are becoming less and less important.

In 2010, Scott's victory showed that an onslaught of television ads could bury a rival who had built up a campaign organization. But if DeSantis wins it shows that a presidential endorsement - and a bevy of appearances on Fox News - can blunt money, staffing and organizational advantages. (It also shows the diminished impact of local media in a world where everything is seen through a DC-centric, not Florida-centric lens.)

Florida's primary usually has been decided by a small subset of voters. Only 22 percent of voters turned out in the 2010 primary. Normally this would mean that a campaign needed to chase absentee voters and engage in a robust campaign of phone calls and personal contacts in order to get voters to participate. That's why a superior organization was considered crucial.

But another key question emerging this cycle is the role of television ads.

Several campaign consultants have said that TV remains a huge factor in Florida, especially among older voters. There's a possibility, however, that the winning candidate from both the GOP and Democratic side will not have spent nearly as much money on television ads as their rivals. As viewing habits - and consumption of information changes among young voters- it's worth noting that this could be a turning point.

3. Recycling the playbook

There is one campaign that is sticking to some tried-and-true strategies and that's the one Scott is mounting against incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson.

Scott has sold himself has a successful businessman, but that career was overshadowed by scandal. Scott was forced out as CEO of Columbia/HCA shortly after a federal investigation became public. The end result is that Scott's former company paid a then-record fine of $1.7 billion to settle allegations of fraud.

So in three straight elections Scott campaign team (which includes many of the same consultants each time) has gone on the offensive: It's the other candidate who has ethics problems. They took the state plane, they helped a crook defraud investors, etc. The early press releases and even some of the ads in this year's campaign echo this. They are all designed to force Nelson to defend his actions and behavior. It can be argued that some of the actions aren't of equal weight, but that's not the point.

Two other elements at work: Scott in 2010 and 2014 assailed Obama and his policies and tried to link them to the Democratic nominee. Bashing the federal government was part of the governor's talking points and script. Trump's ascension has made that trickier,  but now it's shots at Democrats like Nancy Pelosi and complaints in general about how DC is dysfunctional (no matter that Republicans are in control.)

Last item: Ahead of 2014, Scott made sure to use his power as governor to sidestep or try to mitigate potential controversies bubbling up, especially those happening in key Republican strongholds. It appears to be happening again this year as well.

4. Which voters will show up?

When you talk to those who waged campaigns against Scott, aside from the finger-pointing over went wrong, the real frustration is that he squeezed by each time.

Scott won by nearly 62,000 votes (about 1.2 percent) in 2010 and more than 64,00 votes (1 percent) four years later.

Overall turnout in both elections hovered around 50 percent and Democrats seemed unable to generate the kind of turnout they needed in Democratic strongholds to overtake Scott. (Turnout in the last three presidential contests _ two of which were won by Obama _ have been at 70 percent or above.)

This, however, was before the age of Trump.

Now of course there predictions _ and attempts to debunk _ the notion of a "blue wave" that will translate displeasure with Trump into success at the ballot box. Various Democrats have engaged in back-and-forth over what will make the difference this year: Is it a candidate that appeals to young voters, women voters, or progressives? 

But here's another factor for the Republicans _ and the DeSantis camp especially _ to consider: Can they replicate Trump's numbers?

Trump's 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton in Florida was significant because Clinton actually got more votes than Obama did the two times he carried the state. She came in within 6,000 votes of Trump in places like Duval County.

The difference, however, is the margins Trump rolled up in Republican dominated or Republican-leaning counties, fueled in part by an "impressive" surge of voting that took place on Election Day. (See: Election Daze: Voting Modes and Voter Preferences in the 2016 Election - Authors - Smith, McKee, Hood).

And that translated into substantial margins not previously seen. In Lee County, for example, Trump got 44,000 more votes than Mitt Romney did just four years earlier. Will these voters in Florida who propelled Trump victory two years ago transport their support for the president into this year's midterm?

5. The Puerto Rican Diaspora

Last Saturday San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulín Cruz endorsed Nelson in his battle against Scott and while doing so repeated criticisms against Trump and how his administration responded in the aftermath of last year's Hurricane Maria.

It was the latest chapter in an ongoing push by both Republicans and Democrats to appeal to tens of thousands of Puerto Ricans who flocked to Florida after the devastating storm.

Both Nelson and Scott have traveled to the island territory. Scott for his part offered assistance to Puerto Rican evacuees, even going so far as using his emergency powers to sidestep the Legislature in order to pay for it. Candidates for governor have also focused on Puerto Rico. He stared airing a Spanish-language television and digital ad on Wednesday that stressed he had helped Puerto Ricans.

Former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine chartered a plane and delivered supplies shortly after Maria struck. Gillum traveled to San Juan last weekend.

There are open questions, however, about the impact that evacuees will play in Florida's election.

The Washington Post pointed out a few days ago that so far there is little indication that the Puerto Ricans who left the island are registering to vote in the state.

There's still time for that to change as the election moves closer. But as Orlando legislator Amy Mercado noted to the Post: "Their main focus obviously is going to be survival...The last thing they are thinking about is politics."

The power and the swagger: Richard Corcoran and his fight for "soul of the party."

Separated by a couple of hundred yards, a scene played out on Friday night that in a brief few moments captured the essence of the entire 2017 session of the Florida Legislature.

At one end Senate President Joe Negron made his case for why Republican Gov. Rick Scott should look favorably on the new state budget crafted by the GOP-controlled Legislature (and which will be voted on this Monday.)

Negron's logic was even though Scott didn't get what he want the Senate was always on his side. Senators backed Scott's request for money for business incentives and to fully fund Visit Florida, the state's tourism marketing agency. They just couldn't get the House to go along.

"On the Senate side the track record speaks for itself ,'' Negron told reporters. 'We've been a strong ally in the Senate of the governor and his priorities.'

Contrast that to  House Speaker Richard Corcoran who took a much more confrontational position toward the governor. (A governor by the way who has criss-crossed the state blasting GOP legislators and even running ads critical of legislators.)

'There's a war going on for the soul of the party,'' Corcoran said. "Are we going to be who we say we are?"

To Corcoran this "war" means opposing business incentives, or "corporate welfare' as he called them in the past. And in his brief session with reporters he also mentioned politicians who campaign saying they want to crack down on illegal immigration and are opposed to "the liberal socialistic health care policy called Obamacare" but then change their position when they get into office.

Without using his name directly, it was clear that Corcoran was taking aim at Scott, who flipped on Medicaid expansion (part of Obamacare) in his run-up to his re-election campaign and who ran in 2010 promising to take a hard line against immigration but then in 2014 signed a bill that extended in-tuition to the children of undocumented immigrants. (Corcoran voted against the bill even though it was strongly supported by then-House Speaker Will Weatherford.)

"I think what we need to do is elect leaders who say what they mean and mean what they say,'' said Corcoran, who maintains he has yet to make up his mind on whether he plans to run for governor next year.

Corcoran also predicted to reporters that he thought the House and Senate had the votes to hand Scott his first veto override if the governor does indeed veto the entire budget. (This requires a two-thirds vote of both chambers, which means Democrats will have to go along.)

His exchange with reporters showed that Corcoran - who talked before session of turning on the lights and finding the "cockroaches" that the Scott administration had allowed to flourish during six years in office - finishing the 60-day session with the same provocative, confrontational stance he had before it started.

Given everything that has happened over the last two months of the session it's not really surprising.

Along the way he pushed back against anyone - whether they were in media, his own party, or whomever - who challenged his statements or positions. Sometimes he did it in a lawyerly fashion (such as complaints about transparency weren't valid because the media focused on just one part and not the totality of the changes he pushed.)

But other times it was through sheer force.

He used the budget negotiations (largely behind closed doors) and Negron's own top priority to create a reservoir south of Lake Okeechobee to get the Senate to take up a proposed constitutional amendment that would expand Florida's homestead exemption. Corcoran was able to get the Senate to move quickly on this proposal even though it languished most of the session and was opposed by Sen. Jack Latvala, the Senate budget chief.

Corcoran also used his power in less visible, but still effective fashion (like shutting down session for long stretches in the final days when the pressure builds to act.)  It has been argued that his crackdown on lobbyists before session and the requirements about increased disclosure were more about giving him the speaker a clearer idea of where lobbyists may be taking aim at his agenda.

And on Day 60 Corcoran got the Senate to sign off on a nearly 300-page overhaul of education policy (some of it never seen in public before) that will also be taken up Monday on the final day of session. Corcoran used the budget conference process to place all this policy into two "conforming" bills (bills that change state law to conform to the budget) even though some elements of the legislation weren't ever included in the budget conference. He also got policy changes for Visit Florida included in a bill that initially just dealt with a "displaced homemakers" program.

Corcoran wasn't apologetic for the move, saying instead that the bill (HB 7069) and which includes his "Schools of Hope" proposal to shift students in low-performing schools over to charter schools was some of the "boldest most transformational" change ever and would even rival former Gov. Jeb Bush's A+ plan that put in place the state's entire school grading system.

The setbacks for Corcoran were few: His push for major ethics reform and judicial term limits were never taken seriously in the Senate. There's an argument that despite his pre-session warnings to avoid them that there were plenty of special interest fights . Witness the drawn-out battle over the so-called "Whiskey and Wheaties bill" - which would allow grocery stores to eventually sell hard liquor - as one example. (Corcoran, who appeared to take a strong interest in the measure, maintains his backing of that bill was about free-market principles.)

But of course the question is whether Corcoran's victory dance is premature.

Because at this point it's unclear what Scott will do and whether he will use his own considerable power against the House speaker.

This past week Corcoran and his top allies let it be known that they had offered Scott a deal where they would have relented in a couple of places and funded a couple of his priorities: Visit Florida as well as money for repairs to the Herbert Hoover dike surrounding Lake Okeechobee.

That Scott's people rejected the deal isn't that hard to explain. As explained by those close to Scott, the governor didn't deliver a long list of demands to state legislators this year so it shouldn't be too hard to get the handful of things he asked for.

Of course there remains the chance there will be a few more chess moves before ultimately the Corcoran vs. Scott drama plays itself out.

Corcoran and Negron could refuse to immediately deliver the budget to Scott, meaning that the governor - and the Legislature - would have less time to act as the state moves closer to the end of the fiscal year on June 30. There's nothing in state law that mandates when the Legislature has to deliver the budget to Scott's desk. So theoretically the Legislature could hand it over a week ahead of time.

Yet in one way the two legislative leaders have given Scott an easier path to a budget veto.

The main general appropriations act is $82.4 billion, but it doesn't include many key elements. Legislators have placed more than $700 million worth of spending for Negron's Lake Okeechobee plan, Schools of Hope, Visit Florida and the state employee pay raise OUTSIDE the main budget bill.

This means Scott can sign some of the bills important to the Senate (where it may be easier to sustain a veto) while at the same time vetoing the budget and any other bills important to the House.

Of course if Scott does veto the entire budget (a rare occurrence in recent Florida history) then we get to watch Round 2 between the speaker and the governor.

And the war for the "soul of the party" will rage on.

Rick Scott's next job

Shortly before prime-time on Wednesday night, Florida Gov. Rick Scott got a few moments on Fox News to deliver the announcement that he was becoming the national chairman of Rebuilding America Now, a super PAC dedicated to helping GOP nominee Donald Trump become president.

Amid the other activities of the convention _ including the address of President Barack Obama _ it got overshadowed.

But in many ways it's a big signal about the political ambitions and possible future of Scott.

First off Scott's work for the group _ which includes political director Ken McKay (who worked on Scott's 2010 campaign and was political director for the Republican Governors Association) _ will give him a spot to approach donors and network with top Republicans across the nation. It may also give him an opportunity to land more national media coverage in the weeks to come.

Scott told Fox News that the group was well behind the fundraising efforts of the groups supporting Clinton, but said that millions had already pledged to the group. He vowed that "we’re going to do everything we can to set the record straight and make sure everybody knows the difference between Donald trump and Hillary Clinton."

The conventional wisdom has been among many that Scott is destined to run for the U.S. Senate seat now held by Sen. Bill Nelson. Nelson's seat comes up in 2018 and it could be considered vulnerable in a non-presidential election year, especially since the Democratic politician has solidly aligned himself with Obama and Hillary Clinton. Despite backing Trump, Scott very early on took his name out of consideration for vice president.

If you talk, however, to those who know Scott and his thinking, they point to another possibility for the future: Scott mounting his own campaign for president in 2020.

It may be seem far-fetched to those who point to Scott's so-so favorable ratings in Florida, the fact that he had to spend roughly $85 million of his own money to win his campaigns for governor, and of course the federal investigation and record fines levied against the company he used to lead.

But consider where he stands now _ and how his political fortunes may change depending on what happens in this year's presidential election.

Part of his message crafted by his own set of political advisers, which includes the team from On Message Inc. as well as his former campaign manager/chief of staff Melissa Stone, has been Scott's consistent criticism of the federal government and Obama on multiple fronts.

If Clinton beats Trump, that stays in Scott's political handbook. He can continue to go after the federal government on a multitude of issues, just as he has on Ebola, Zika, the algae blooms etc. etc.

Scott has to change his adversarial tone, however, if Trump wins the presidency (and the Republicans hold onto Congress.)

Scott has said in recent television interviews that he could accomplish so much more if Trump were to succeed. But that brushes asides the complicated political reality that Republicans in Florida are split. This situation could limit what he will be able to accomplish in his final two years in office.

Think about this - Scott has been refusing to raise money for the Republican Party of Florida, but now he has agreed to raise the millions needed to battle Clinton between now and November.

Incoming House Speaker Richard Corcoran and Incoming Senate President Joe Negron have made it clear that they plan to have their own broad agenda on everything from ethics/lobbying reform, higher education, changes to the judiciary. They have been forging a path during this election cycle using the money they have raised on their own and with very little assistance from the governor. Now Scott may align himself with Negron (the old 2 vs. 1 strategy that many legislative leaders have used in the past) but he still may difficulty pursuing his own agenda.

So where does that leave Scott heading forward? It may not matter that much.

While Scott has set adrift several of his campaign promises as governor - and zig-zagged on issues such as Medicaid expansion and immigration - he will be able to point to the state's economic recovery and job growth and declare his tenure as a success. (We'll set aside the whole 700,000 jobs vs. 1.7 million jobs promise and what is the true cause of the recovery for now.) And as of now it's a pretty good likelihood the number of jobs under Scott's watch will likely grow between now and 2018.

So that gives Scott the platform in 2020 to say that he's got a track record of success as an outsider businessman turned politician. He will note he cut Florida's debt and dealt with budget deficits.

It's true he doesn't have the polish of other speakers, or the ability to attract attention the way that Trump has, but his efforts in helping Trump will give him the ability to argue that he was a loyal Republican as opposed to some others who also may be considering a GOP bid four years from now.

Many political insiders have tried to discount Scott for years now. That proved to be a mistake in 2010 and 2014. It could be the same four years from now.

What will Rick Scott version 5.0 look like?

This Friday another era comes to a close for Florida Gov. Rick Scott.

That's when Melissa Sellers will give way to Kim McDougal (both pictured left) as McDougal takes on the sometimes overwhelming job as chief of staff for Scott.

Sellers, who once worked for former Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, is remaining in Tallahassee and opening her own consulting firm.

This much is clear: McDougal and Sellers have different backgrounds, different resumes and different styles. McDougal is a veteran state employee who has spent most of her career focused on education and only recently made a deep dive into the political realm.

The big change for her came in 2014 when she went on leave from her job in the governor's office as an education analyst to help with Scott's re-election campaign. McDougal helped draw up Scott's education platform for his campaign but she was deeply involved with Scott's tightrope walk on how to deal with Common Core.

One of McDougal's jobs that summer was to meet with groups deeply opposed to Common Core, which still remain embedded in the standards that Florida is using in its public schools. McDougal's outreach was successful enough to win an endorsement from one of the groups on the eve of the election. (Which was probably important in a contest decided by just 64,000 votes out of 6 million cast.)

Because of her lengthy experience the expectation is that McDougal will retain her oversight of education matters for Scott. And that probably means no dramatic swings away from current policies or a need to make any big personnel changes. (Scott has been a pretty firm supporter of Education Commissioner Pam Stewart.)

Word is that after the departures of Sellers and General Counsel Tim Cerio other people working in the governor's office - including Deputy Chief of Staff (and former Louisiana resident) Frank Collins will remain in their same roles.

But the real big question for Capitol insiders - and ultimately Floridians - is whether or not Gov. Scott will pivot once again with a new chief of staff in place.

Because one of the most interesting aspects of Scott's five-plus years in office is that he has been willing to alter his style, his interactions and sometimes even his policies based on the input from those closest to him at the time.

There are those who speculate that Sellers will remain a trusted voice and may be doing a warm up routine for a potential 2018 U.S. Senate run for Scott. (Although there is a division of opinion about this as well.)

Another maxim, however, is that "no one gets out of Scott World alive." This means that once someone is removed from the orbit of influence it's impossible to get back in. (Key example: Sellers was Scott's campaign manager during a time when he was focused on the campaign. After the re-election, he installed her in as chief of staff in place of Adam Hollingsworth. Word is that Hollingsworth didn't know this was coming.)

Going all the way back to the start there are clear lines of demarcation for Scott when one person leaves and another steps in.

His first few months in 2011 Scott was combative with the press, with the Legislature and came on strong with a Tea Party influenced agenda that including killing high speed rail between Tampa and Orlando. Lobbyists were barred from meeting with Scott and top governor's office staff. The chief of staff at the time was officially Mike Prendergast, but the view is that the person who had the most influence at the time was his senior adviser Mary Anne Carter. Carter was a complete outsider to Tallahassee and once she left her position she didn't hang around in town.

But Prendergast (and Carter) were followed by Steve MacNamara, a long-time veteran of the Tallahassee scene who has been a university professor, a lobbyist and held stints as the chief of staff for two legislative leaders. It was MacNamara who tried to ease tensions with the press and tried to steer Scott into a more cooperative relationship with the Legislature. The blanket ban on lobbyists was lifted. Suddenly Scott was dressing more informally and holding lengthy sessions with the media in the governor's office. Scott visited newspaper editorial boards and scheduled work days to interact with normal Floridians.

MacNamara, however, departed in the summer of 2012 amid a series of articles detailing his role in contracts and his interactions with agencies. (Later it would be revealed in emails that MacNamara's influence with Scott was severely tested during the 2012 session of the Florida Legislature. Emails showed that MacNamara tried in vain to get the governor to veto a bill creating Florida Polytechnic University while encouraging him to approve a bill that would have given additional tuition raising power to University of Florida and Florida State University.)

He was followed by Hollingsworth, whose main job was to figure out how to rehabilitate Scott in such a way that he would have a shot at getting re-elected even though poll numbers suggested it was near impossible task. Hollingsworth was seen as someone who would quickly urge Scott to deal with potential problems and embarrassments heading into the 2014 elections. Former Lt. Gov. Jennifer Carroll has said it was Hollingsworth who showed up to tell her that the governor wanted to resign following her questioning by law-enforcement authorities investigating a veterans charity engaged in what was deemed to be illegal gambling. (The charity had hired Carroll before she ran with Scott but no charges were ever brought against her.)

Hollingsworth was at the helm during one of Scott's most notable moments during his first term: His complete 180-degree turn on Medicaid expansion and the Affordable Care Act pushed by President Barack Obama. Even today, it remains somewhat remarkable that Scott - who railed against Obamacare and even had run television ads attacking it - would come out publicly in favor of accepting billions in federal aid to expand who was eligible for Medicaid. (Under Sellers - and after his re-election - Scott would reverse course again and side with the Florida House in 2015 in opposition to Medicaid expansion.)

Other pivots, not as dramatic, also occurred such as Scott's decision to back in-state tuition rates for the children of illegal immigrants despite winning election in a 2010 platform that promised support for a crackdown on illegal immigration.

Starting under Hollingsworth (who brought on Sellers to serve as communications director) and continuing ever since she took over, Scott returned to limiting interactions with the press in Tallahassee. He cut down on appearances on conservative radio stations and instead shifted to appearances on national television outlets. And a combative side of Scott returned. He sued the federal government over Medicaid funding and he ordered an investigation of Planned Parenthood clinics last summer. Scott has ratcheted back up his criticisms of Obama. His push to get rid of the Florida Department of Law Enforcement Commissioner led to allegations, apologies and lawsuits.

Yet ever since his re-election and Sellers ascension to chief of staff Scott has had a difficult time with his fellow Republicans in the Legislature and has had trouble winning passage of his priorities. There's lots of finger-pointing as to who is to blame (is it staff? Is it Scott's decision to not raise money for the state party? Is it ideologues in the House?) but the net result is that his two top priorities this year, including a $250 million business incentive pool, were largely ignored by legislators. There are some who say that Scott is isolated from those in the GOP and that has contributed to the problem.

But this month Scott did make a tactical decision to limit his losses. Instead of drawing out the battle he signed this year's state budget and did not engage in the long line of budget vetoes that some lawmakers had been expecting. (Senate budget chairman Tom Lee predicted $500 million in vetoes at one point and Scott did roughly half that.) Talk of possible veto overrides has disappeared and the good thing for Scott is that legislators probably won't return to the Capitol until November.

The governor still has a tremendous amount of time left in his second term in office so there's plenty of time for him to repair relations if he wants to. By tapping McDougal he has found someone who has a good idea about how the capital works - but is less familiar with the political ramifications of every decision that the governor makes.

Scott of course will continue to place a large part of his focus on the state's economy and job creation since it's the message that has helped him in two elections (and remains a top concern for most Floridians.)

But will he take a more pragmatic approach on dealing with the Legislature, dealing with the press, and figuring out what to do in the myriad of issues that confront him on a daily basis? For example: One of the less touched on elements of Sellers time as chief of staff is that Scott brought in Julie Jones to run the Department of Corrections. While problems remains in the state's troubled prison agency, there are signs that Jones has tried to reform the department (although she too lost out this session on getting the Legislature to bless all of here proposed changes.)

So the question is will Scott change direction yet again with McDougal now on board?

Will the next two and a half years be relatively quiet and will the governor and McDougal have a caretaker attitude, or will there be new initiatives, new promises, and new conflicts with the two incoming legislative leaders? The next House speaker - Richard Corcoran - has a lengthy list of contentious items he wants to tackle that could prove challenging for Scott.

Will Scott - who never had been a politician until running for governor - present Floridians with another version of himself? Or will he stick to what he's given voters so far?

5 biggest questions for the 2016 session

After one of the most tumultuous years since Republicans assumed control of the Florida Legislature - the GOP-controlled House and Senate return this week for a 60-day jaunt that many legislative leaders hope/predict is relatively calm and uneventful heading into what could be a highly unpredictable election year.

Most insiders of course can recount the score: The budget meltdown, the abrupt ending of the 2015 regular session, two failed redistricting special sessions, a budget finally passed with days to go before a state government shutdown.

Legislators are returning early this year as part of an experiment to move up the date so that lawmakers can be back home in time to spend spring break with their families. (It would take a change in the constitution to move up session start for every year.)

Here then are the 5 biggest questions of session:

Can everybody just get along?

The expectation is that the resolution of the long-simmering Senate presidency battle (which was won by Sen. Joe Negron) and the Senate's tabling of Medicaid expansion should make it easier to reach a consensus on the state budget and other issues. Throw in the fact that it's an election year and there is an anticipation that there will be a willingness to compromise. But that may not capture the complicated situation at hand.

First all, there's Gov. Rick Scott who enters the session with a longer wish list than normal. And it's not just the $1 billion tax cut package and Enterprise Florida reforms that the governor wants (although that appears to be a big ask). Scott put together a $3 billion gambling deal with the Seminoles and he's also pursuing his health care transparency package.

Last year Scott showed that there is a price to pay (through his substantial budget vetoes) if you don't go his way. So you can be assured that remains on the minds of many legislators.

But let's not forget there are some Scott agency heads whose fates remained unresolved, or that there remains a split in fundraising/political activities that has resulted in the Senate and Scott raising money separately from the party. You can also throw in the whole unsettled situation in the Senate due to a redrawn state Senate map that could theoretically force some senators to moderate their positions.

Lastly, a key question is how supporters of former Gov. Jeb Bush and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio in the Legislature will view Scott's decision to nudge ever so closely to endorsing GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump.

Say what you will about the sausage-making in the state Capitol a lot of it still depends on connections and relationships and many of the items cited could play a role. And if Scott is viewed as isolated from members of his party then there is even less willingness to work with him.

Is it possible to ever reach an agreement on gambling?

Well, you certainly wouldn't want to bet on it given the competing forces (including dog and horse tracks from outside of South Florida) who don't like some of the fine print on the deal that Scott reached with the Seminole Tribe. In the past few years attempts to pass major gambling bills have floundered amid the Scylla and Charybdis that exists in the Legislature on this issue.

But Scott remains a wild card on this. The governor, who began his business career as a deal maker, put together a proposed compact with tribal officials that was guaranteed to get big headlines and promised a big payout.

Throughout his time as governor Scott has remained, for lack of a better word, agnostic about gambling in the state. In other words, the governor isn't going to back the tribe, the dog tracks, the anti-gambling factions including Disney, Las Vegas casino owner Sheldon Adelson, or even Trump at all cost.

It would not be surprising if Scott's approach is basically: 'Hey, I helped put together a deal. Tribe, it's up to you and your lobbyists to get it passed.' And more importantly, is Scott amenable to changes as long as the overarching achievement - the money in the state's bank account is unchanged? Signs point to yes.

Tribal officials - who are still locked in a court battle over whether they can keep blackjack tables in their casinos under the 2010 deal that expired last summer - may have to decide if they need to cobble together something that makes everyone happy. Or decide if they could take their chances and just wait until next year.

Scott has been very deferential so far in his public pronouncements and has made it clear that it's up to the Legislature to work something out. If it doesn't happen the governor can maintain it wasn't his fault.

How many gun bills will reach their target?

Apart from the budget and gambling battles, you can expect a fair amount of attention in the media to be focused on the gun bills already moving through the Legislature. These include bills allowing open carry of firearms, guns on college campuses and changes to the Stand Your Ground law.

The decision by legislative leaders to already allow these bills to move through legislative committees even before the start of the 60-day session is a sign that there is considerable support for them.

And President Barack Obama's decision to pursue actions on guns on the federal level will likely add momentum as GOP legislators will be able to contrast their actions at the state level with what's happening with D.C.

Plus long-time National Rifle Association lobbyist Marion Hammer has made it abundantly clear that she and her supporters have no plans to modify their stances on these bills. Hammer has told everyone that she will be keep pushing the legislation for as long as it takes.

Put that together and it would reasonable to assume that most, if not all, of the bills stand a good chance of reaching Scott's desk later this year. Yes, there is opposition to the various bills, including Florida State University President John Thrasher and university police chiefs on campus carry to some of Florida's sheriff's on open carry.

But the gun bills give Republicans a chance to do something that will fire up their own political base heading into what could be a chaotic election season.

There is a caveat with all of this though and that's the unresolved question of whether the new Senate districts (which appear to tilt toward Democrats) will persuade some senators that contentious issues of this sort need to be put on hold until 2017.

How will the growing power of Joe Negron and Richard Corcoran affect the process?

The general theory about the Legislature is that the influence/power of the outgoing legislative leaders begins to ebb during their second session while the clout of their successors begins to grow.

There have been exceptions to that rule over the years i.e. Dean Cannon as House speaker and John McKay as Senate president.

There will be those who will make snide comments that Corcoran, a former top aide to Rubio and current House budget chief, already has considerable sway in the House. Yes there are many signs that he does wield a good deal of influence, but expect it to get even larger.

Among some insiders who follow the process the operating theory right now is that House Speaker Steve Crisafulli and Senate President Andy Gardiner will get to watch their top priorities pass in the opening days of the session. (For Crisafulli, a potential Agriculture Commissioner candidate, that's a comprehensive water bill, while for Gardiner it's bills to aid families with children who have developmental disabilities.)

After that moment of comity, the rest of the session will be conducted in Corcoran and Negron's shadow. That could affect plenty of important bills, whether it's Negron's support of a measure to legalize/regulate fantasy sports to the judiciary reforms that Corcoran has already promised to push through.

Other considerations: Negron, an attorney, has clashed in the past with the insurance industry so that may make it hard for them to push through changes opposed by trial attorneys such as the revamp of assignment of benefits. Corcoran - along with his successor Rep. Jose Oliva - have expressed skepticism about for targeted business incentives like those championed by Scott or for items such as film incentives or subsidies to sports teams and operations.

Will this really be a do-nothing year for the Florida Legislature?

Talk to most lobbyists and they will quietly concur: This may be a really tough year to get anything substantial passed.

The reasons are many, starting with the epic battles of last year (see No. 1) to what appears to be an unpredictable election year (see Trump, Donald.)

There is a feeling right now that any attempt to move major changes/reforms in key areas will be difficult. It's not just the gambling deal with the tribe. This could flow to everything else including the types of tax cuts, health care changes pursued by the House to some of the environmental bills being pursued to alimony reform and major education bills. If Republican leaders are intent on putting aside any public disagreements then the easiest way may be to just deep-six many of the more contentious proposals.

As of this past weekend, 1,644 bills have been filed which does appear to put the Legislature on pace to meet last year's totals so maybe legislators themselves remain somewhat optimistic that they can things done. There is always a natural tendency for the Legislature to try to fix/improve/change things and have something to campaign about in the fall.

But the most substantial year for legislation in recent years was 2011 when you had a new governor and a supermajority in the Legislature following the 2010 wave year for the GOP. That track record suggests that 2016 will be relatively quiet.

Mind-meld: Where President Obama and Gov. Rick Scott 100 percent agree

Here's a few recent statements that have been made in the last few weeks that come from two elected officials who hail from different parties and usually have very little in common.

1. "I believe that America is not a place where higher education is a privilege that is reserved for the few.  America needs to be a place where higher education has to be available for every single person who’s willing to strive for it, who’s willing to work for it."

2. "Students can spend their money better than government can. It should not require a federal loan and decades of debt for students to get a college degree. Price limits access – plain and simple."

3. "A college degree is the surest ticket to the middle class and beyond.  It’s the key to getting a good job that pays a good income.  And it offers a measure of security, because a college degree tells employers that you don’t just have one set of skills; that you’ve got the continuous capacity to learn new skills, which is going to be particularly important for your generation because the economy is going to churn and change in ways that none of us can even anticipate."

4. "If we are going to out-compete the world, the second thing we must do is make higher education more affordable....Just like any business, we should expect education to become more affordable each year, not more expensive."

The quotes above come from U.S. President Barack Obama during a recent appearance at Georgia Tech University and Florida Gov. Rick Scott during his State of the State speech earlier this month.

Scott. a Republican who got elected in part to a tea party wave in 2010, has waged two campaigns where a key part of both them was a constant barrage of criticism for the Democratic president.

Scott's entry into the political world, after all, started when the former health care executive began assailing Obama's health care overhaul. And Scott has not stopped there. He's hit Obama over a whole variety of issues since then.

But when it comes to college affordability the two sound remarkably similar even if their approaches are a tad different.

Scott, whose talking points usually include mentions of his poor upbringing that was changed by a brief stint in the military followed by college, has been very populist when it comes to the cost of college.

During his first term in office, Scott resisted tuition increases for undergraduates. And then he pushed to repeal a law _ which was widely supported by many Republicans at the time _ that gave Florida's universities the ability to raise tuition above levels approved by the Legislature. Scott even went so far as to label tuition hikes akin to tax hikes (which could give potential future GOP U.S. Senate candidates in Florida such as Jeff Atwater and Carlos Lopez-Cantera something to worry about.)

One of Scott's talking points during the 2014 campaign against his rival Charlie Crist was that Scott undid the tuition law approved while Crist was governor.

The move created big savings for those parents who had purchased pre-paid tuition plans because the plans had been been based on assumptions that tuition would keep increasing at a certain rate. In early March, it was announced that the number of pre-paid tuition plans that had been sold this year tripled, a fact that Scott highlighted.

But like Obama _ who confronts a GOP-led Congress resistant to many of his plans including a push to make community college free in the U.S. _ Scott's own push this year for college affordability appears in for a rough reception.

Scott, who will meet today with student body presidents to tout his proposal, wants the Florida Legislature to eliminate the sales tax on college textbooks, require more transparency about college costs and put in limits on tuition hikes charged by graduate schools.

The Senate bill, which contains all these proposals, has yet to get a hearing even though it is sponsored by Sen. Anitere Flores, a Republican from Miami. A House bill that contains the sales tax exemption for textbooks has also yet to be heard.

While Florida's university officials have not spoken out against Scott's proposals there hasn't been a rush from anyone to endorse them either.

Florida's Board of Governors _ the panel that oversees the state's public universities _ is currently looking at affordability and today Chancellor Marshall Criser III is expected to discuss the issue further.

But behind the scenes one of the concerns expressed about Scott's proposal to limit graduate tuition costs is that there is an argument that medical schools, law schools and other professional programs are supposed to be market driven and tied to supply and demand. (Discuss amongst yourself if this is a Republican idea.) Some of these programs are also some of the most expensive for universities to operate.

Scott entered the 2015 legislative session with a small list of priorities that includes tax cuts, a boost in school funding and the college affordability bill.

But right now it looks like Scott's quest to rein in college costs could be the part of his agenda that is least likely to pass.

So when Scott meets Obama on an airport tarmac in the future they may have something else they could talk about.

Is Adam Putnam winning the invisible primary for 2018?

The next governor's race is still a long, long way off.

But as the year has progressed _ and the dominoes appear to ready to fall due to the looming campaigns of U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and former Gov. Jeb Bush _ it appears that one Republican continues to position himself for the 2018 race for governor.

And that's Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam _ who was sworn into a second term this past January.

Of course it's no secret that most Tallahassee insider and Florida politicos think that the former legislator and U.S. congressman will run.

Putnam for his part won't answer the question.

"I'm entirely focused on being the best second term agriculture commissioner I can be and focusing on the issues at hand,'' Putnam said in a recent interview.

 But a series of recent events have made it clear that the path is getting clearer for Putnam to be the frontrunner.

1: The other Cabinet official seen as a potential rival _ Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater _ is angling for a run for the U.S. Senate. Atwater was spotted last week in DC with a well-known Republican consultant in tow.

Atwater's main target would be the seat held by Rubio should the Miami Republican do as expected and jump into the race for president. Rubio has said several times now that he will not seek re-election if he runs for president. That has led to a lot of anticipation that Republicans will quickly jump into action should Rubio make it official. But Atwater is also apparently willing to wait until 2018 and run for the seat now held by U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson if Rubio suddenly changes course.

2. While there is buzz among Tallahassee insiders that Rubio is really angling for the 2018 governor's race himself _ there are others who insist this is just idle gossip and that a presidential bid by Rubio would in fact be a serious endeavor regardless of whether former Gov. Bush makes his all-but-official presidential campaign official.

Putnam calls Rubio a "friend and an outstanding public servant" but for his part maintains that Rubio's plans won't affect his thinking.

"I think that when it’s time to make decisions about what you choose to run for it has to be based on your own convictions, and your own views and your own ability to do the best job you can in that role,'' Putnam said. "You can only control what you can control, you can’t worry about things you can’t control."

3. Putnam continues to distance himself from Gov. Rick Scott _ on events such as the ouster of Florida Department of Law Enforcement Commissioner Gerald Bailey _ while making sure he pursues his own set of policies that could help give him a record to run on.

The animus between Scott and Putnam dates all the way back to 2011 when Scott insiders viewed Putnam as a potential primary rival in 2014. Scott repeatedly has threatened to veto Putnam's top legislative priorities and even once suggested that he would veto chunks of the budget for Putnam's agency.

This hasn't stopped Putnam. Last year a reworking of the state's utility tax pushed by Putnam was folded into a bill including Scott's tax priorities after Scott said he didn't like Putnam's suggestion. This year it's Putnam emerging as a champion of the House water bill that has come under fire from some environmental groups.

During his first term Putnam got involved in the school lunch program and energy policy. Recently he began drawing attention to the idea of "food deserts" in the state.

Putnam said his efforts reflect a "21st Century model" for what an agriculture department should look like. But he also maintains that he can be a voice for issues that go beyond his office.

"Just as I have a role as the commissioner of agriculture, there’s also a role as a statewide elected official to identify issues of statewide import and to bring a solution,'' said Putnam.

4. Putnam also keeps making sure he says the right things (most of the time) to the conservatives in the GOP.

When Scott surprisingly switched his stance on Medicaid expansion it was Putnam who was one of the first to sharply criticize the governor. He hasn't been as vocal on immigration issues _ which isn't viewed in the same light by those in the agricultural industry as it is among some of the Republican faithful _ but he's spent time criticizing President Barack Obama and the federal government.

This past weekend in a speech Putnam gave to the Federalist Society he complained about problems in D.C. according to Sunshine State News (a Internet site that has shown a propensity to write about issues important to Florida's sugar companies - a key part of the state's agribusiness community.)

Putnam last week was also quick to criticize Obama's Keystone XL pipeline veto and said that the president "failed to meet the needs of the American people."

As a fifth generation Floridian Putnam has shown a deep knowledge of the state, its politics and its history. He is keenly aware of the fault lines. When asked about the Rodman Dam, for example, when discussing his water policy, he sidestepped the question.

That doesn't mean he will get a free pass especially from environmentalists who can remember when as a young legislator he pushed a bill dealing with public lands and water that then Attorney General Bob Butterworth blasted as a land grab. The financial dealings of his family has come under scrutiny as well.

Of course Cabinet agencies rarely get the same kind of scrutiny that is focused on the governor's office or the Legislature.

But that said _ absent a major blunder _ Putnam should be the one to watch on the GOP side for the next four years.

For once Rick Scott follows the Charlie Crist playbook

One of the many things that Republicans, including those in Florida, have complained about President Barack Obama is his use of executive power, most recently of course seen in his executive order dealing with immigration.

Florida is one of the more than two dozen states that late last year joined the lawsuit filed by Texas challenging the president's actions.

At the time Attorney General Pam Bondi contended that her decision to join the other states was not about immigration but to undo what she termed "unwarranted presidential overreach."

"This lawsuit is about President Obama-yet again-overstepping the power granted to him by our United States Constitution," Bondi said.

She then added: "The powers granted to the President are expressly laid out in the United States Constitution, yet President Obama has decided to ignore those parameters."

In Tallahassee this week, Florida Gov. Rick Scott exerted his own kind of executive authority, and one that could theoretically also be challenged as "overreach."

Scott issued an executive order on Tuesday that authorized Education Commissioner Pam Stewart to suspend an 11th grade standardized test that was about to be given to high school juniors this spring.

Scott took the action in response to a testing investigation undertaken by Stewart at his urging last year while he was on the campaign trail. Stewart in her summary of that investigation suggested getting rid of the test even though it was just approved last year and was included in a bill (HB 7031) that repealed mention of Common Core in state law.

The wording of Scott's order was interesting.

First off, Scott asserts that his authority to give Stewart the power to suspend the test is vested in the state constitution. The language he cites is from the first part of Article IV, which states that the governor "has supreme executive power."

Nowhere does Scott contend that there is an emergency that requires him to act now regarding the test.

But the governor kind of acknowledges that he is telling Stewart not to follow the law, saying he is taking action now because the "Legislature will have opportunity to consider repeal of the statutory requirement" that now mandates the test. (It's not clear whether or not lawmakers will in fact do that.)

Florida's governor does not enjoy the same scope of executive power as the president although the governor is arguably more powerful now than two decades ago. Changes in the constitution and state law - especially during the Jeb Bush years - has strengthened the governor's hand.

But usually the only time the governor can suspend or waive the law is when there is an emergency such as a hurricane. Most of the time the governor's executive orders deal with matters as appointing a prosecutor from another judicial circuit to handle a case because another prosecutor has a conflict.

Former Gov. Charlie Crist, however, building on Bush's use of executive orders issued executive orders that privately some Republicans grumbled were not legal, most notably his decision to extend early voting hours during the 2008 election (and which Crist said was justified by an emergency).

One top Republican at the time said it would have created a public relations disaster to sue Crist over the order, not to mention it wasn't clear if a court would act quickly enough to block the order from taking effect.

This wasn't the only time, however, Crist would use an executive order in a legally questionable way.

In his final months in office he issued an executive order that extended jobless benefits approved by Congress even though the Legislature had not authorized it. Crist took the action even though past extensions had been passed by state legislators and it was assumed that the benefits would lapse absent legislative action.

Just as it had happened with the voting executive order, no one challenged Crist's authority that time either.

And that's probably what will happen with Scott as well. It's hard to imagine anyone who would go to court to force 11th graders to take a test.

But this could signal a decision by Scott to be more assertive in his use of executive authority despite signs that he may have a tough time getting fellow Republicans in the Legislature to follow his lead during a second term.

And perhaps when Scott greets Obama on the tarmac in Miami today they could regale each other about the use of executive orders.

Whirring fans, enemies scattered: The sound and fury of a governor's race

As a voter rally for Gov. Rick Scott in Hialeah a few days before Election Day came to a thunderous close Sen. Anitere Flores welcomed Pastor Mario Bramnick to the stage to give a closing prayer.

Bramnick, the senior pastor of New Wine Ministries Church in Cooper City, wasted little time in praising the Republican incumbent and indirectly attacking Democratic rival Charlie Crist, citing James 5:12 "let your yes be yes, your no be no" and James 1:8 that a "double minded man is unstable."

"We do not need an unstable man, we need a man of leadership,'' Bramnick said.

That was the intro the prayer and during the prayer Bramnick made his thoughts on the upcoming election even more clearer.

"Father we decree and declare that you have anointed and appointed Gov. Rick Scott for this hour to lead this great state of Florida,'' Bramnick said. "Father we pray that you expose the schemes and lies and deceptions of the enemy. Let God arise and our enemies be scattered. Let your kingdom come and your will be done Nov. 4."

In just a few short words Bramnick may have summed up - at least to those directly involved - what the race between Crist and Scott had become. Schemes, lies, deceptions and yes, enemies.

This was not a governor's race, say like in 2002 between Gov. Jeb Bush and Bill McBride, that revolved around such mundane discussions as school funding and reducing class size. Or even the previous 2006 general election between Crist and Democrat Jim Davis that was consumed by property taxes, insurance and whether or not Davis spent enough time in Washington D.C. (the subject of negative ads run by Crist.)

And yes, with Scott's past as the CEO of a company embroiled in Medicare fraud the 2010 elections were heated in both the GOP primary and the general election.

But that race almost seems quaint compared to this one. (Well, although that race featured Scott calling primary opponent Bill McCollum the "Tonya Harding of Florida politics" duing a press conference where Scott got served with a subpoena.)

But despite Democrat Alex Sink's repeated attempts to question Scott's character due to his role with HCA/Columbia much of the race four years ago was in Scott's own words about "jobs, jobs, jobs."

Scott had a bold plan - the 7-7-7 plan - that spelled out how he would return Florida's economy to good health by a mix of tax cuts, regulatory rollbacks and sizable cuts in government spending. In return, he predicted jobs would be forthcoming. Sink did have her own economic plan, but it was Scott's plan - and how it would work - that became one of the centerpieces of that campaign.

This time around there was no bold plans announced to anchor the campaigns.

Scott rolled out policy initiatives largely tied to next year's budget and he promised to bolster funding of the environment and schools. Crist's plans were even less intricate and centered on restoring education funding, equal pay for women and raising the minimum wage.

The main questions in 2014 aren't centered not around ideas, but basically, around character and trust:

Does Florida give Crist another chance even though he left in 2010 when the economy was souring? Or does Florida stick with Scott due to his handling of the economy even though a majority of the electorate doesn't really like him? Can you trust Crist because he supports President Barack Obama and Obamacare? Can you trust Rick Scott to not cut education funding again? And on and on on.

And maybe that's why the race has never broken wide for either candidate because they each spent months arguing about their pasts.

Through the debates and television ads and rallies the race turned bitter, personal and expensive. Crist is corrupt and surrounds himself with corrupt pals was the narrative of several GOP ads. Scott by contrast is "shady" and deceptive from his days with HCA/Columbia to his stint as governor. Fact-checks by many news organizations, including The Associated Press and Politifact, have roundly questioned the assertions made in many of the ads.

The debates probably didn't help that much because the defining moment wound up being Scott's absence from the start of the second one, a incident immortalized in the words of "fangate." Scott maintained he didn't come on stage because he thought Crist was going to boycott the debate because he wasn't supposed to have his fan. If Scott loses the race, there will be those tempted to point to that moment as when he lost the race.

Polls of course show that the steady barrage produced a predictable result: Neither candidate is liked by a majority of voters.

The last Quinnipiac University poll on the eve of the election found just 43 percent had a favorable rating of Crist and only 42 percent gave a favorable rating to Scott.

On the eve of the election, Scott boldly predicted that his campaign would "kick Charlie's rear" because he is providing a "clear choice" to voters about whether they want to pick someone who will help their families.

But unscientific Interviews with voters over the last few days have shown that many of them are voting for the person they find least objectionable.

They want the person who can help the economy. Or they want the person they think is more likely to help them. Some of these voters appear ready to look past Crist's shift from Republican to Democrat, or Scott's decision to jettison some of the tea party elements of his 2010 agenda.

During raucous events held during the final at The Villages and at a Harley Davidson dealership in Orlando, Texas Gov. Rick Perry asserted that Florida's election was really a "national election" that will answer questions about which direction that country moves in the next few years.

"Over the course of the next 24 hours I would suggest the future of America is in balance and Florida is the epicenter of that,'' Perry said.

Well, it's clear that national political figures with potential presidential aspirations such as Perry, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Vice President Joe Biden have come to Florida and have pitched in.

And outside groups such as NextGen Climate, with its links to a California billionaire environmentalist, have made a significant impact in the race as well.

But what's interesting is that despite having what has been billed as the most expensive race in the country the clash between Crist and Scott in such a key swing state has not attracted quite the national media firestorm that one could have expected months ago.

Instead much of the focus in the closing days appears to have been concentrated on the prospect of the Republicans seizing the U.S. Senate.

So where does that leave us?

Is this a battle between good and evil as even some associates of Scott have maintained?

Or is this merely an election between two damaged and flawed candidates?

Will either candidate emerge from this race with much of a mandate in which to govern? Or will it be as previously predicted the prelude to a period when power shifts over to the Florida Legislature?

There will be of course much hand-wringing no matter what happens.

If Crist wins, there will be finger-pointing at how the Scott campaign was run. Did Scott abandon the narrative that helped him in 2010?

If Scott wins, the Crist people will say they couldn't defeat a candidate withs uch a distinct cash advantage including the nearly $13 million Scott put in at the close. And there will be Democrats who will say 'I told you so' and complain that they should have pushed U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson harder to jump into the contest.

Recriminations. Enemies scattered. Amen.

The Rick Scott machine grinds on with a growing sense of confidence

Is it all over but the shoutin'?

There are moments that it certainly looks that way - at least when observing what the Republican Party of Florida and the re-election campaign of Gov. Rick Scott are saying and doing lately.

While some polls have the race essentially tied with two months to go, the signals from the Scott campaign and their "out of state mercenaries" is that they have turned the tide and they are proceeding down the checklist of things they have to come up with to win the race over Democratic rival Charlie Crist.

The two-week bus tour launched last week was a great example of that.

The bus tour, where Scott is touting a $1 billion tax cut package over the next years, appears aimed squarely at trying to rally the Republican base of voters. Scott's new talking points for the events include linking Crist to President Barack Obama time and time and time again.

Crist and Obama are alike says Scott because they think "money grows on trees."

Now normally one would assume the need to nail down the base in the early going of a re-election campaign.

But the Scott campaign has spent the last few months spending tens of millions grinding down Crist in a series of negative ads. If the belief is that the negative ads have made Crist increasingly unacceptable to independent voters, then the idea of turning back to the base makes sense.

The recent poll done by the University of Florida in concert with a handful of media organizations would seem to bear that out. It maintained that among those Floridians surveyed that just 37 percent now trust Crist.

It's already been well documented that the Democratic turnout was not very impressive during the Aug. 26th primary. During a session held at the Florida Association of Professional Lobbyists conference last week, the executive director of the Florida Democratic Party acknowledged that the low turnout numbers in Broward were especially worrisome.

So if independents stay home, Democrats remain lukewarm, then the path to victory is with the Republican base of voters.

Of course the Scott campaign has been calling and trying to motivate voters for some time now. But the bus tour gave them an opportunity to reinforce that with visits to GOP strongholds such as southwest Florida. While some in the base may have their problems with Scott because of Common Core and All Aboard Florida, they are trying to calm those fears.

There are other things that also bolster the idea of a growing confidence in Scott world.

Their press strategy, for one, has been on a need to know basis.

As in, the Scott campaign will cooperate with the press on things that enhance its narrative. Want a key example? After putting out press release after press release about their ads, they have been less forthcoming about other ads.

One hard-hitting ad entitled "Swindled" start running right after the primary ended and features a person who says he was swindled by Scott Rothstein, the Ponzi schemer and one time associate of Crist. Christopher Heath with WFTV asked questions about the ad but got no answers.

The Scott campaign in 2010 avoided editorial boards completely. This time around they have employed a selective strategy. While they have spent time at places like Florida Today and the Tampa Tribune, they have not scheduled any time with some of the major papers who might be viewed as more adversarial i.e. The Tampa Bay Times. In other words, it would appear they plan to make visits to the places where they view an endorsement as a possibility.

Another key element that could help build confidence: While the Crist-Scott race initially drew a lot of national attention it doesn't appear that the race has become as nationalized - and the scores of earned media that would accompany it - as one thought it could become.

So far, it appears that many parts of the national media are spending time watching the handful of U.S. Senate races that could tip the balance to the GOP.

Juston Johnson, the executive director of the Republican Party of Florida, who also appeared at the FAPL event made it clear that the Scott campaign is looking at the finish line confidently. (Johnson repeated the 'out of state mercenaries' line that has become a motivational spark for the Scott team.)

Johnson told the group that it was "remarkable" that Scott has gone from trailing Crist to matching, or in the case of the UF poll, leading him. But beyond that, Johnson said he doubted that any debates between Scott and Crist would change the outcome of the election pointing out some would occur after people had already begun. Nor did he expect "some scandalous story come out that will drastically change this race."

Johnson talked about how the party and campaign had spent a year putting together its field operations and digital efforts and now it was a matter of just getting them to "do their thing."

It's easy to understand Johnson's point of view that voters in Florida know an awful lot already about both Scott and Crist and there may not much more than change the narrative of the race.

For their part Crist's team is also putting in place their strategy.

The Democrats and Crist held back on spending a lot of money in advance of the primary. A peek inside the Crist headquarters in St. Petersburg shows an organization that is setting up its own field operations, relying on some of the same strategies and analytics that aided Obama's successful runs in Florida the last two presidential cycles.

Scott Arceneaux, the executive director of the Democrats who like other Democratic operatives is spending quite a bit of time in central Florida with the Crist team, bluntly predicted that the race between Crist and Scott would be only one or two points and that the race wouldn't be decided until Wednesday.

The Scott campaign early on decided that Crist was the one opponent that they wanted in this election. They have been up on television all summer. They are clearly sticking to their game plan so far. They have had some gaffes and bumps so far but the large cash advantage has apparently enabled them to withstand those blows.

The last big onslaught from Crist and company is coming. The question is whether it will be too little too late, or whether it will derail the Scott machine's march onward.