The Fine Print

Gov. Rick Scott gives up on one of his big promises

Florida Gov. Rick Scott, who has a little more than a year left in office, is releasing his final set of budget recommendations on Tuesday.

And it's sure to contain many of the same items that the Republican governor has recommended in past years: A smattering of tax cuts, probably a small increase in school funding (possibly backed by a rise in property values), and his evergreen request that all state workers pay the same for health insurance. (Legislators have rejected this idea year in and year out.)

But to sound vaguely like a country song, Scott is a long, long way from Eustis, where he rolled out his first budget at an event filled with tea party supporters.

In that first ever proposal, Scott rolled out a spending plan that called for nearly $5 billion in spending cuts in 2011-12 fiscal year, which would then be used to help with $2 billion of recurring tax cuts.

When he first ran for governor, Scott constantly touted his "7-7-7" plan that he said would lead to nearly 700,000 jobs if the plan's seven steps were followed over seven years. (Those 700,000 jobs were on top of normal growth, Scott said at the time, but that's an argument for another time.)

A central plank of this plan to help the state's economy was the elimination of Florida's corporate income tax. Scott promised to completely get rid of it by 2018, starting with a $458 million reduction in year 1 and a $1 billion cut in year 2. (Another promise was to substantially cut the property tax rate charged to homeowners for schools.)

"It’s not a budget that dabbles. It doesn’t offer a little something for every special interest or sweeteners for certain people," Scott said at the time. "It’s a two year budget that faces realities now, rather than putting them off for later. It makes the hard decisions. But it makes the right decisions for Florida’s future."

He added: "We will capture more jobs if other states have a business tax that Florida does not have. We are competing with 49 other states and many countries for entrepreneurs who start, grow and move companies based on where they can get the best return."

But Scott's push for sweeping and deep budget cuts paired with a mammoth tax cut fell flat with the GOP-controlled Legislature.

Still grappling with the fallout from the Great Recession and a budget shortfall, legislators sent Scott a budget that included some tax cuts (mostly property taxes charged by water management districts), spending cuts and a contentious move to deducting money from public employees to help pay for their retirement plans.

Instead of cutting the corporate tax income rate like Scott wanted, legislators instead agreed to exempt businesses from paying the tax if they only made a certain amount of money. Over two sessions the exemption level was raised from $5,000 to $50,000.

The move exempted many businesses from paying the tax, but as Scott leaves office it remains a substantial tax source for Florida government. Legislative economists predicted the state would wind up taking in about $2 billion this year from the corporate income tax.

Scott has tried to include further tweaks to the corporate income tax in his annual spending plans, but he has been unable to make any substantial progress on his initial pledge.

And this year - ahead of a likely campaign for U.S. Senate - the governor didn't even try.

He recently rolled out a modest tax and fee-cutting package that includes tax holidays and a rolling back of driver's license fees. His package was entirely targeted to residents and individuals and included no tax cuts for businesses or

When pressed about it, Scott said recently that he still would like to cut the corporate income tax, but he did not express any disappointment that he was unable to achieve what once was a top goal.

"You fight everyday for the things you think are a priority and that's what I have done," Scott said. "I would love to cut more taxes, but there's actually three branches of government." 

The looming budget battle in Florida: A primer

Well, here we go.

After watching the prelude for weeks, the Florida Legislature and its Republican leaders will finally put pen to paper this week (so to speak) and release their detailed spending plans for the coming fiscal year.

After listening to leaders in the House and Senate discuss their priorities, the expectations are that the rival budgets could be widely divergent in what they cut, what they keep and what they enhance.

There are a multiple reasons for that, whether it's Senate President Joe Negron's push for increased money for state universities, or House Speaker Richard Corcoran's insistence that the state shutter its economic development agency Enterprise Florida.

But less noticed is that the House, Senate and Gov. Rick Scott have chosen to include information that supports their arguments, while seemingly sidestepping other salient points. This could influence the tenor of the debate that is about to intensify.

So it might be worthwhile and step back for just a second to recall how everybody got here and what's important to remember for the budget battle that still lies ahead.

So here's a few things to understand:

DON'T CALL IT A DEFICIT: There is no budget deficit this year. Plain and simple.

To understand the underlying budget situation, it's important to realize this. In Florida a deficit occurs when the state collects less money than what is needed to pay for things that are in the budget.

Florida's tax collections are in fact growing. The main budget account - known as the general revenue account - is expected to grow in the current fiscal year by 4.4 percent, or $1.23 billion.  This same account, which relies on a variety of tax sources but primarily the state's sales tax, is expected to grow $1.16 billion - or 3.9 percent - in the fiscal year that starts on July 1. That's a stark difference from the depths of The Great Recession when legislators were required to cut spending (or in 2009 raises taxes) to make the math work.

So then where does the confusion lie?

Well, let's start with a document called the Long-Range Financial Outlook. Thanks to current Sen. Tom Lee, the voters in 2006 approved a constitutional amendment that requires the development of an outlook that looks out over a three-year period and reviews both sides of the ledger - the expected spending and the revenue coming in.

The outlook comes out once a year. The one approved in September found that when balanced together legislators had a windfall of only $7.5 million for the 2017-18 fiscal year. And the economists and analysts who put it together warned of a "structural imbalance" that could create a sizable budget gap in the years to follow. That has sparked talk of deep budget cuts including a House plan to cut at least $1.4 billion alone in the coming year.

But it's important to remember this budget gap is a summary of both revenues - and expenses.

The long-range outlook put together assumes nearly 50 different expenditures - and that greatly impacts the bottom line.

Let's start with tax cuts: The overall outlook assumes that there will be $254 million in recurring tax cuts in each of the next three years. This is based on a historical average in recent years, but the point is this, part of the projected gap is based on the assumption that legislators will continue to cut taxes, which adds to the potential shortfall, which helps trigger the need for cuts elsewhere to close that gap.

The budget shortfall or gap that is projected to occur is also driven by a long line of other spending decisions where economists plugged in the numbers based on historical decisions made by legislators: The outlook assumes a $1 billion reserve on top of other existing budget reserves. It assumes that legislators will fully fund increased enrollment in public schools, pay for increases in Medicaid, and set aside more than $400 million over the next three years to pay for increased costs associated with the state employee health insurance program.

But there's more - the outlook assumes an increase of per-student funding above enrollment growth, grants to libraries and museums, local government park grants, and in the out years money spent on replacing a law-enforcement radio system and the replacement of Florida's accounting system.

So what does that mean? In reality, the budget debate is one about choices.

Do legislators choose to keep cutting taxes? Do they choose to keep spending money on certain things? Do they choose to make deep cuts due to a philosophical belief that government is too big and too expensive? Do they refuse to revisit past decisions that contribute to their structural imbalance - including for example - decisions to give out tax credits to various businesses. This could include anything from the insurance tax credit that is targeted by the Senate, or the tax credit scholarship program that continues to grow. (The amount of tax credits available for the scholarship program is projected to increase from $559 million this fiscal year to nearly $699 million next year.)

THE SCHOOL TAX DEBATE:  If there is one item that could derail the entire budget process it's the thorny annual dilemma over school property taxes.

Here's the problem: As property values rise, this translates into more money collected by local school districts that could be spent on public schools. In other words, if the value of your home goes up you will pay more in taxes in the coming year - unless the tax rate is lowered by an equal amount to offset the increase in values.

Legislators don't appropriate this local property tax money - BUT - they do draw up spending plans that assumes a mixture of both local and state funding. This is known as the Florida Education Finance Program or FEFP and districts that wish to draw down the state funding must collect a certain amount of money. (This is known as the required local effort or RLE.)

Republican leaders, including Scott, have used these increased local tax dollars to boost the overall amount spent on public schools. Some legislators have defended the practice by noting when property values plunged during the Great Recession that the state helped offset the loss (but not completely.) 

But Corcoran has vowed that he will not let this happen this year - and he's taken a much stronger stance on this than practically every other spending item in play.

Important piece of history: Corcoran was chief of staff for then-House Speaker Marco Rubio when the Legislature waged a lengthy debate over property taxes during a time when Florida's real-estate market was super heated. The position of the GOP-controlled Legislature at the time was pretty simple: If local governments take in more tax dollars because of rising values, then it's a tax increase. Legislators forced cities and counties to roll back their tax rates. So Corcoran is being consistent with that position. (Also worth noting: Several senators, then in the Florida House, also took that position. Dennis Baxley, Anitere Flores, Bill Galvano, Denise Grimsley and Perry Thurston voted in favor of the bill to force local tax rollbacks.)

Scott has maintained that this isn't a tax increase and his own budget recommendation relies on nearly $558 million in increased local school taxes to help pay for an overall 3 percent increase in per-student funding. Scott has tried to suggest this is no different than if the price of a car goes up and you pay higher taxes  because of the higher price. Yeah, but the government doesn't set the price of a car. In this instance government at both the state and local level have a hand in deciding how much property owners will spend.

BREAKING DOWN OTHER FLASHPOINTS...Quick hits on remaining things to look for and understand:

GAMBLING: Right now all these budget projections being thrown out do not assume any changes in Florida's gambling laws or a new compact with the Seminole Tribe. That means if - and it's a pretty big if - legislators could stroke a deal with the Seminoles and the rest of the players in the seemingly intractable gambling turf war it could provide an injection of cash that could help smooth things over.

GULF COAST SPILL MONEY: While this may not command a lot of attention around the state, the ongoing tug-of-war over money the state received as part of a settlement over the 2010 BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is part of the overall dynamic that will decide how this session ends up. The state last year got $400 million as its first installment. Under an existing law some $300 million is supposed to go to eight Panhandle counties that were impacted the most by the spill. But the Legislature has to yet to agree to send the money out the door.

Corcoran and House leaders didn't like the arrangement allowed under the existing law so they have crafted a bill that places more oversight on the spending - and prohibits any of the money being used on economic development projects. The Senate so far has a different approach and they have not agreed to all the House restrictions. This money is a big, big deal to the Panhandle Republicans and in Tallahassee parlance - this is their going home bill - meaning they can't go home unless they get it worked out.

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: This item has gotten plenty of press especially since it has triggered a feud between Scott - who wants to keep funding intact for the state's economic development agency - and House leaders who want to eliminate Enterprise Florida and scale back Visit Florida, the tourism marking agency. The Senate so far is siding with Scott. The question is will they remain in sync with the governor all the way to the finish line.

HIGHER EDUCATION: Negron's bid to increase funding to state universities as part of an effort to propel them into the top ranks of the nation's public colleges is going to be rebuffed by House leaders who contend that universities are misspending what they have now (some of which came with the help of legislators who placed projects into university spending lines.) The one word of caution in this debate is that numbers get thrown around sometimes without a clear sense of what they mean.

Universities are dependent on several streams of funding and it appears so far that the House is lumping everything in to make an argument about overall spending. There are differences between straight state funding and the money that universities take in from other sources - whether it's tuition, money from federal grants, or money medical schools earn from seeing patients. For example, the amount of tuition money can go up even if the rates don't because universities admit more students. T

The House has zeroed in on spending among the foundations and whether it's proper for the universities to use state funding to subsidize fundraising operations. So far, the universities have had a muted response and not given a clear explanation as to practice. One big question is whether or not the House will advocate for blocking universities from using their foundations to pay university employees above state limits.

TRUST FUNDS: It's important to remember that some taxes and fees charged by the state don't wind up in the main budget account. Instead they are set aside in what are known as trust funds. Year in and year out special interests groups argue that money collected in these funds belong to them. And year after year the Legislature politely ignores this and transfers money of these trust funds and uses to help balance the budget.

SPEND NOW, PAY LATER? Unlike the federal government, Florida is required to have a balanced budget every year. That doesn't mean of course the state doesn't have debt. It does.

Until Scott came into office, past governors and legislators authorized borrowing for fixed capital costs such as building college buildings, roads and acquiring environmentally-sensitive lands. Scott started drawing a firm line about this and led the charge to push down the state's debt load. As of last June, it was $24.1 billion or more than $4 billion lower than it was when Scott came into office.

Negron's plan to build a reservoir south of Lake Okeechobee calls for increased borrowing. Currently the bill moving authorizes more than $3 billion in bonding authority to go to various projects, but with an estimated $1.2 billion going to the reservoir project. But that's not what is needed right away in this year's budget.

If the plan is approved it would carry an estimated $100 million price-tag to this year's budget since the bonds would be paid back over 20 years in installments.

So Negron's plan has an immediate cost to the treasury, but it's also important to understand that the full amount of his project will not included in this year's budget.

BOTTOM LINE: Under the current schedule legislators are operating under the House and Senate are expected to pass their budgets during the second week of April.

That week is already truncated because of religious holidays so it is highly unlikely that any negotiations or work can begin until April 17. That means legislators will have about 15 days to get everything worked out in order to get a budget finished on time. That's because Florida law requires the budget to be finished 72 hours before the final vote.

So that's a lot of ground to cover in a short amount of time. Besides the above-mentioned topics there's other issues at play, including pay raises, more money for charter schools etc.

The clock is ticking.

Scott (and Crist's) money man prepares for his exit

After more than three decades in state government, the man who helped shape Florida's budget during one of its worst economic stretches is about to step down for good.

Jerry McDaniel will leave his job as the budget director for Gov. Rick Scott at the end of this month. He'll be replaced by Cynthia Kelly, who by all accounts is about to become the third person _ and first woman_ to have ever held the budget director job for the House, Senate and governor.

McDaniel, whose background is in accounting, holds a somewhat unique position: He's someone who worked for Gov. Charlie Crist and then managed to maintain his position in the administration of Gov. Rick Scott. (McDaniel briefly was planning to exit the governor's office during the transition, but he wound up staying.)

McDaniel is leaving state government now because he has to. He signed up for the state's optional retirement investment program which requires employees to leave within five years of enrollment.

In a brief interview earlier this week, McDaniel said that if he could he would have liked to have remained working for Scott for his entire first term.

And that means McDaniel isn't gliding into retirement.

McDaniel is currently working with Kelly _ who started in November _ on Scott's final slate of budget recommendations during his first term. A key component of those 2014-15 budget recommendations will be Scott's push for $500 million in tax and fee cuts. Scott is announcing today in Tampa that he wants the biggest chunk of that tax/fee cut package to go to rolling back auto registration fees that were approved by the Legislature in 2009 and signed into law by then-Gov. Crist.

To be able to have some sort of budget surplus to work with is a bit of a new phenomenon for McDaniel. He recalls that upon immediately entering office that Crist's initial budget recommendations in 2007 were considered somewhat unworkable because the economic forecasts for the state were quickly changing.

It was McDaniel who helped shape a series of state budgets during the time the Great Recession battered the state's economy. He was there when the Crist administration accepted billions in federal stimulus in order to balance the state budget - and he was there when Scott rolled out an initial budget in 2011 that called for huge tax cuts as well as a large cut to education spending. Scott of course would later recommend bolstering education funding, including pushing for a $1 billion boost this current year that included money for teacher pay raises.

When asked he said he enjoyed working for Crist while he was governor. But he also was very praiseworthy of Scott, saying that the former health care executive is very hands-on and likes to engage in-depth conversations about budget policy.

McDaniel adds that Scott encourages debate among his own staff about policy suggestions.

As for Scott's eagerly-awaited budget recommendations, McDaniel gave a few insights.

He did concede that with this year's current estimated budget surplus that repeating a $1 billion boost in education spending and cutting taxes and fees by $500 million is unlikely.

But McDaniel was quick to point out that there is still enough money to boost per-pupil spending in the fall of 2014.

McDaniel also noted that local property values are rising _ and with it property tax collections _ meaning that the state is not going to have to backfill money to help keep school district budgets stable. In the last few years part of the increased state funding has gone to replace lost local dollars.

"Everything is turning in the right way for the 14-15 budget,'' McDaniel said.

Budget battles 2013: A big behind-the-scenes tug of war

In their final public session together the two men (pictured left) leading the 2013 budget negotiations over education spending gave each other a hearty hug.

Rep. Erik Fresen, R-Miami, even boldly proclaimed that while some items remain outstanding in this year's budget that top Republicans had closed out "99 percent" of the line items before them. (That's Tallahassee-ese for reached agreement and therefore there's no need to talk about it again.)

But in actuality the House and Senate budget negotiators "bumped up" the entire main funding program for public schools also known the Florida Education Finance Program (FEFP). (More Tallahassee-ese - this means they kicked up the final decision to the top budget chairs because they failed to reached a decision.

And one of the main sticking items that has snagged the budget negotiations has gotten very little public discourse in the meetings between Sen. Bill Galvano and Fresen.

It's called "compression."

So what is this?

In theory it's an attempt to compress the per-student funding ranges that exist from one district to another. It's an effort to recognize that property values (which drive property taxes) are not in the same in every county. So the state adds extra money to help smooth out the range.

The way it's handled can be a big, big deal, however.

And that's what's happening this year.

The Senate is insisting on pumping $30.5 million more into compression than the House.

And right now the House isn't budging on this. Said Fresen: "We believe that the FEFP works the way that it is."

Translation: The Senate way of using compression creates a geopolitical rift. That's because pouring extra money into compression in essence dramatically impacts some counties more than others.

Duval County, for example, got a $411 per-student increase in its funding under the initial Senate plan compared to $401 in the House plan. Miami-Dade got a nearly a $417 increase in per-student funding in the initial House budget compared to a $399 per-student jump in the Senate budget.

Miami-Dade schools superintendent Alberto Carvalho said Tuesday that the difference between the House and Senate approaches in compression amounted to a $4 million difference.

It's not entirely easy to do an in-depth county-by-county analysis of the impacts because the House budget also included a $10 million increase in what is known as "sparsity."

This is extra money that goes to smaller districts that is meant to help districts whose buying power is diminished because they can't buy things in bulk like the larger counties. But the bottom line is that the House budget helps out many rural districts. Calhoun County, for example, gets a $512 per-student increase in the House budget versus nearly $445 in the House budget.

One thing worth noting: The House budget increases funding to Pasco County, the home county to House Speaker Will Weatherford by nearly $403 per student, while the Senate plan bumps it up only by $390. The Senate plan increases funding to Okaloosa County - and home to Senate President Don Gaetz - by nearly $448 per student. The House budget would boost Okaloosa's per-student funding by $450.

and how about this twist? The Senate plan is more generous to the home county of House budget chairman Seth McKeel. Polk County would go up $380 per student in the Senate budget compared to $366 for the House budget. But the House budget brings up the per-student funding in Martin County by $450 compared to nearly $443 in the Senate budget put together by Sen. Joe Negron.

These differences aren't as dramatic as the tug-of-war in the last decade over district cost differential (a battle pitting urban South Florida districts versus the rest of the state) but it's clear that so far this skirmish has kept the House and Senate from reaching a resoluton on the education portion of the budget.

And while teacher pay raises and tuition hikes are important so is how much money each legislator brings back to their home county.

Rick Scott's math problems

During his campaign for governor Rick Scott sharply attacked Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink for some of her budget proposals and said that they would be too expensive. Scott then quipped that Sink was practicing "Obama math." That led to Sink's own rejoinder that she didn't know what Obama math was even though she had been a math major at Wake Forest University.

In the next few weeks, Scott, however, will have to show how his math adds up.

Scott must hand over his own budget recommendations to the Florida Legislature by Feb. 4 - or about a month before the 2011 session. The tight time schedule is one of the reasons that many people in Gov. Charlie Crist's budget office were given until next June to resign. Scott's team - led by Donna Arduin, the budget chief for former Gov. Jeb Bush - have already started working furiously on the proposal. Arduin has been given her own office on the 17th floor of the Capitol to help with the effort.

This budget proposal could be the key in determining how successful Scott will be during his first year in office. And it will be interesting to see how Scott will accomplish the budget goals he outlined during his campaign.

Math problem No. 1: Scott says in his "7-7-7" jobs plan that he could save nearly $1.4 billion by requiring employees to start contributing for their own pensions (pg. 12). But as explained in this story in the Herald-Tribune the state of Florida is only paying slightly less than $700 million now on behalf of its employees. The rest of the money flowing into the Florida Retirement System actually comes from counties, school districts, sheriffs and other local governments.

So how does Scott make up the difference? One possible explanation is that he will use employee contributions from school districts - namely teachers - to help pay for the property tax cut he also wants to offer. Scott has proposed slashing school property taxes by 19 percent, but he says he would do it without cutting funding to education. So if you ask teachers to start paying for their own pensions, which would reduce their salary, is that, or is that not, a cut?

When pushed this week to explain how Scott planned to get $1.4 billion in savings, Lt. Gov. Jennifer Carroll said it would be revealed in Scott's budget plan. "Stay tuned,'' she said.

Math problem No. 2: Scott's team has said that the governor-elect plans to aggressively move ahead with his school reform proposals in the coming year. Scott's plan got some attention at the time he announced it, but there was plenty of coverage following his appearance Thursday at a rally of groups who help provide corporate income tax scholarships -  or "vouchers" - to low-income families. Scott again repeated his call for offering every student in Florida the opportunity of going to the school of their choice.

It has been previously noted that Scott wants to cut the corporate income tax while potentially expanding the scholarships, which are funded to a large extent by the tax. There's also legal implications to Scott's plan that may not be solved without a constitutional amendment given past Supreme Court rulings on vouchers.

But on top of that there remains the practical question of how much it would cost to expand vouchers and virtual education beyond current use. (Although it's important to remember that legislators this past year authorized the expansion of the one of the state's main voucher programs.) There will be some argument that you can save money by moving children out of public schools into private ones - but that depends on how much funding is authorized and whether or not the state plans to pick up the complete cost or merely subsidize part of it. Plus, there is the cost of helping pay for students already in private schools or students who are home schooled. The latest figures from the Department of Education show more than 62,000 children are home-schooled and more than 313,000 are in private schools.

Math problem No. 3: The existing budget shortfall - which is not a "deficit" - is now moving ever higher than previously forecast. This week brought news of higher than expected expenditures in Medicaid, lower property tax values for schools (although that dropped the cost of Scott's property tax cut plan slightly) and lower-than-anticipated sales tax collections over the last three months. Combined this pushes the expected budget shortfall to more than $3 billion.

Some of the projected shortfall is due to the loss of federal stimulus funds and continued growth in Medicaid but the shortfall is also dependent on legislative action. Lawmakers can whittle down this shortfall if they decide to forego some expenses such as buying environmentally-sensitive land or refusing to maintain student funding at current levels. Scott has suggested his own ways to deal with the budget shortfall, including cuts in the state prison system and the elimination of 5 percent of the state workforce (which is already the leanest and cheapest in the nation according to a new report from the Department of Management Services.)

Still Sen. J.D. Alexander, R-Lake Wales, was cautious when asked this week how he plans to fill the shortfall while at the same time going along with Scott's plan to cut property taxes and corporate income taxes. Alexander said one big place to look for savings will be Medicaid. Legislative leaders and Scott agree on making changes to the health care program, although there remains questions as to whether or not the federal government would sign off on them.

But then Alexander said that while he would like to put money back into Floridians pockets he said it won't be an easy task to balance the budget, saying that lawmakers have already made a lot of cuts the last few years. He also then made sure to say that the campaign is over and now it's time to govern.

"I would hope that all of us take a deep breath and move away from campaign rhetoric and start focusing on how do we make the best decisions possible to move our state forward," Alexander said.

 

 

Rick Scott's long list of challenges

A beaming Governor-elect Rick Scott and his wife, Ann, showed up at the governor’s mansion on Monday night where they joined Gov. Charlie Crist and First Lady Carole Crist for a symbolic menorah lighting ceremony.

Scott helped 11-year-old Mendy Oirechman light the candles of a large menorah that was placed up against one of the front windows and he later held hands with Crist as they briefly danced with some of the rabbis in attendance.

The ceremony, which was started under former Gov. Jeb Bush, was a tangible sign of some of the many social responsibilities that come with being governor. But it also could be seen as a prelude of many of the large and small challenges that will confront Scott once he is sworn into office in early January.

During the half-hour ceremony, he was reminded of Florida’s insurance problems when he was asked whether he planned to follow Crist’s footsteps. Crist went to Jerusalem and placed a prayer in the Wailing Wall where he asked God to spare Florida from hurricanes.  Rabbi Schneur Z. Oirechman politely asked whether or not the mezuzah that now sits on the door jamb into Crist’s office would remain once Scott becomes governor. Crist back in 2007 took some heat from groups such as the ACLU for placing the religious symbol in his office.

But there are many other large challenges that are looming for the rookie governor whether it's the state budget mess, the dismal economy, Medicaid and even the brewing leadership battle for the Republican Party of Florida.

The complete rundown on Scott's challenges can be found here at the Florida Tribune.

Crist's demise leaves an uncertain legacy

With polls showing that he continues to lag behind rival Marco Rubio, the hour that Gov. Charlie Crist spent with David Gregory at Tuesday night’s U.S. Senate debate might be his final time in the national spotlight.

Crist, who had successfully climbed from the ranks of the state senate into the governor’s mansion, is now confronted with the prospect that his political career for now is over. His decision to bolt the Republican Party and run as an independent means that he will have few options after this year.

His political ascent was marked by several twists and turns and it is hard to imagine that the man now preaching about independence and moderation once accused Democrats of dirty tricks in getting then-Gov. Lawton Chiles elected over Jeb Bush back in 1994.

But as Crist exits the stage, he leaves behind an uncertain – and largely incomplete – legacy as Florida’s governor. Crist became the first governor to voluntarily give up the post after one term in the 40-plus years that governors have been allowed to seek re-election.

Lance deHaven-Smith, a professor of public administration and policy at Florida State University, said Crist’s legacy actually depends on how the election turns out next week.

“Crist tried to move his party and the state back toward the middle after eight rather polarizing years under Jeb Bush,'' notes deHaven-Smith said in an e-mail. “He did not accomplish much policy-wise compared to many other governors, but he contributed to significant improvements in the state’s civic culture.  If he is elected to the Senate, Florida is likely to see a continuation of this moderation in public office for both parties.  If he loses, well, his legacy of compromise and pragmatism may be short-lived."

David Colburn, a professor of history at the University of Florida and a long-time scholar of state politics, said that Crist clearly tried to work with both political parties and was not ideological in how he approached problems. An example of this, of course, was Crist's decision to embrace the federal stimulus in order to help ease Florida's budget woes.

“I think it is easy to dismiss Crist as a politician who is only interested in getting and holding office and that there really is not much to him,’’ Colburn said in an e-mail.  “Clearly he is not ideological and he made clear to more than one state political leader that "he was not Jeb Bush." By that he meant that he was willing to work with both parties to find solutions to critical issues facing Florida and that he did not dismiss government's role in improving the quality of life for Floridians.”

But Colburn also made it clear that Crist is unlikely to leave the same kind of impact that other governors left.

A full look at Crist's uncertain legacy can be found here at the Florida Tribune.

Next Senate President not bothered by a no vote on all amendments

Florida voters were supposed to get a crammed ballot this November that would ask them to weigh in on everything from school class sizes to federal health care reform and property taxes.

But a flurry of lawsuits coming from opponents of the amendments -- most of which were placed on the ballot by the Republican-controlled Legislature -- could block many of those proposals from being voted on this fall.

Six of nine proposed constitutional amendments on the 2010 ballot are tied up in court fights. And two measures have already been tossed from the ballot by lower court judges, although each of the cases probably will not be resolved until the state Supreme Court rules.

The latest to fall came Friday when a Leon County judge threw out a proposed amendment that advocates said would have been a boost to Florida's ailing real estate industry.

One lawyer involved in the fights is putting the blame on state lawmakers for crafting amendments that he says are intended to "deceive" the public. But Sen. Mike Haridopolos, R-Merritt Island, asserted that lawmakers have done all their work in the "sunshine."

But Haridopolos said with all the confusion surrounding the amendments voters could wind up rejecting all of them. And he says he has no problem with that.

"I would be fine if everyone voted no on all the amendments."

Here's the full story at the Sarasota Herald Tribune.