The Fine Print

5 biggest questions of the 2018 session

Here we are again: Following a year that included a civil war among Republicans that sparked a special session and ended with a sexual misconduct scandal that scuttled the political career of Sen. Jack Latvala the GOP-controlled Legislature returns to Tallahassee for what could be another bumpy ride.

In no particular order, here are the five biggest questions of the 2018 session.

1. Is there more turmoil to come? The decision by Latvala to resign last month following a devastating investigative report into his conduct capped off a tumultuous year, especially in the Senate. Three senators ultimately resigned in an off-election year following news accounts of their behavior.

The House was not immune from drama either as one Democratic House member resigned amid an investigation into her residency. Other GOP House members quit as well, citing the top-down management style of House Speaker Richard Corcoran.

The question remains: Are there more secrets to spill out into the open from the confines of the members-only Governors Club and the other places in Tallahassee that normally remain hidden from public view?

There is a constant buzz of rumors and innuendo and whispered allegations that this legislator is next, or that other relationships will be exposed to scrutiny. The Florida Department of Law Enforcement continues to investigate Latvala over an allegation uncovered by the Senate investigation that suggests he may offered legislative action in exchange for sexual favors. (For his part, Latvala continues to deny wrongdoing.)

Then there's the fear that Latvala - who continues to sit on a large amount of cash into political accounts he controls - will proceed to use that money to go after those who came after him. There is an expectation that the entire scandal will eventually lead to lawsuits where even more secrets could be exposed.

This constant fear of drama feeds into an uneasy atmosphere that now hangs over Tallahassee because those that run this town don't like their secrets getting out.

 2. Will political ambitions interfere with a smooth session? In many election years, there is a tendency for sessions to run quickly and smoothly as legislators head to the exits in order to raise money for looming campaigns.

This year may not be the norm.

Gov. Rick Scott, of course, is expected to run for U.S. Senate. Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam is running for governor. Corcoran is expected to run for governor. Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis is running for a full four-year term after Scott appointed him to the post last year. There are legislators seeking to replace Putnam and Attorney General Pam Bondi.

The question is how whether these colliding campaigns will spill into the legislative arena and derail things.

One important thing to remember - Corcoran can't raise money during session, but his power could wane once the 2018 session is wrapped up and a budget is on Scott's desk. That means some special interests may stop giving him money once everything is finished.

So any type of blow-up, anything that could prevent legislators from passing a budget could theoretically help him. Here's the thought: Session is earlier this year, so in reality legislators could pass a budget in early May and it would not cause any disruption.

Under this theory, legislators adjourn for several weeks - meaning the cash could resume flowing into campaign accounts.

That's not saying it would happen, but there are several issues, including whether or not to use a rise in local property taxes to pay for schools, that could easily trigger a standoff and at the time help those seeking higher office.

 3. Does Gov. Rick Scott have an easier time getting the Legislature to help him this year?

During his entire time in office the multi-millionaire businessman has had a topsy turvy with members of his own party. The governor even today likes to remind people that when he ran for governor in 2010 no one in the GOP establishment endorsed him. During an interview just last week, Scott noted that Corcoran was expected to run this year and added - "It's a totally different race from mine. Everyone had endorsed my opponent."

Last year amid a struggle over Scott's push for economic incentives and money for Visit Florida the governor went after House Republicans. He aired television ads and he visited legislators districts where he called them out by name for failing to vote with him.

After reaching a deal with Corcoran last summer that resulted in a final budget deal, his fellow Republicans have been much respectful. A recent video posted on the House website was effusive with praise about Scott's handling of Hurricane Irma.

Still Scott's agenda isn't an easy sell. His budget recommendations are viewed as too optimistic and don't reflect the state's tightening financial situation. His push to rely on a rise in local property values to help pay for a hike in school funding has already been declared dead on arrival by Corcoran. Business interests were disappointed that Scott's tax cut package was aimed directly at consumers.

In 2014, then House Speaker Will Weatherford helped muscle through legislation that helped Scott in his re-election year. But that is an eternity ago. Since then Scott has stopped raising money for the Republican Party of Florida and there has been a string of blow-ups. Do legislators remember? Or do they decide in the end they need to help the governor?

4. Will Senate President Joe Negron finally win approval for his higher education overhaul?

A lot of time and energy will be spent this session on special interest battles, but probably some of the most substantive policy issues will be the education measures being pursued by legislative leaders.

Last year Negron pursued a substantive higher education overhaul that contained a major boost in college scholarships for the state's highest performing students. Scott vetoed it, citing concerns from college presidents and others who didn't like some of the restrictions on institutions that used to be called community colleges.

The proposals are back this year (although right now in separate bills) and the Senate has expanded the financial aid portion even further. The legislation dealing with the state college system continues to draw flak from college presidents. (Reminder - the state university system and state college system operate totally separate. They are funded differently and controlled by different entities. They do not work in tandem. The two have had back and forth tug-of-war for years and calls to have a cohesive system has been sidestepped and ignored.)

Some House Republicans have already begun to raise questions about the higher education proposals. One possible scenario is that the House trades approval for Senate approval of House priorities, including a new voucher proposal pushed by Corcoran that would allow students who are bullied to transfer to a private school. The bigger question is whether Scott - who has had his own clashes with universities - will ultimately go along with the revamped proposal.

5. Will local governments lose even more control this year?

For years, the GOP-controlled Legislature has railed against Washington D.C. and the mandates placed on states by the federal government. Yet at the same time there has been fight after fight in the halls of the state Capitol over whether to block local governments from all sorts of regulations ranging from the use of plastic bags to lawn fertilizer.

Corcoran last year argued that the Legislature is the closest to the people and that's why it has a legitimate role in providing oversight over local affairs and blocking local governments from taking certain actions.

This session will likely be consumed with a series of skirmishes in this same arena, starting with the House bill to go after  "sanctuary cities" that do not cooperate with federal authorities on immigration enforcement. (It's been noted that right now no cities in Florida fit this description.) The House is expected to pass the bill later week.

There are bills filed dealing with everything from local tree ordinances to regulation of short-term rentals to more oversight for local tourism councils and a ban on the use of tax money for pro stadiums.

Get ready to rumble.

Out of the house and into a mansion?...And other Tallahassee bubble news

Inside the Tallahassee bubble news....

Richard Corcoran's out of the house and into a mansion?....Make of this what you will, but during the middle of this year's session House Speaker Richard Corcoran sold his Tallahassee house.

Property records show that Corcoran and his wife Anne Corcoran sold their 2,400 square house near Capital City Country Club on March 15 of this year. One of the buyers, Scott Shamp, was recently named interim dean for the Florida State College of Fine Arts.

The Corcorans sold their home for $363,800 after having bought it September 2014 for $325,000. They bought the home at the time from John Sebree, who had been a senior vice president for the Florida Association of Realtors and a lobbyist, but Sebree had left the state to become CEO for the Missouri Realtors.

Sebree first bought the house in 2003 and paid $329,900 - which was before the Great Recession and a downturn in property values.

When asked about it, Corcoran said he spent the rest of session renting a house near downtown that is also near homes occupied by other high-ranking House Republicans including Rep. Jose Oliva. He said he has a lease that will get him through the next year and a half.

Worth pondering: By selling his house now, Corcoran doesn't have to worry about it after the 2018 session when he may - or may not - be pursuing a bid for governor. Corcoran is being forced to leave the Florida Legislature next year due to term limits so he would have needed to do something with the house anyway. Of course one of the perks of becoming governor is that the winner gets to move into a mansion located just up the road from the state Capitol.

Bill watching and the governor's options...In most years, Memorial Day weekend is sort of the end of the legislative season. By this time school is about to end around the state, and the governor has usually acted on a new state budget.

But as we have seen this isn't an ordinary year as Gov. Rick Scott and Republicans continue their all out public feud over spending and legislative priorities (or as Corcoran puts it - a fight for the soul of the party.)

This leaves things in a bit of dizzying state that may be a bit hard to follow, but this is an attempt to walk through it all...

Even though the new fiscal year starts July 1, the Legislature has yet to deliver the $82.4 billion appropriations act to Scott. Or many of the other significant bills (including HB 7069) that actually boost state spending to more than $83 billion for the coming year. (The list does not include the Lake Okeechobee bill which Scott has already signed.)

Florida's Constitution requires that once a bill is officially presented (which means it's been enrolled and the bill jacket has been signed by the two presiding officers, the House clerk and the Senate secretary and then delivered) the governor has 15 days to veto the bill, sign the bill or allow the bill to become law without his signature.

Since Scott became governor in 2011 the longest the Legislature waited to deliver the budget after passing it was in 2012 when it took 28 days. But that was a redistricting year so legislators went into session early. They actually delivered it in early April. So far this year it's been 16 days.

An important thing to remember: There is nothing in law that dictates when the Legislature must deliver a bill to the governor.

Usually there is some level of coordination where legislative staff check with the governor's office to find out if  his staff is ready to act. Sometimes this is also done to accommodate public bill signings to drum up publicity.

Normally there isn't a lot of intrigue here, but legislators passed a budget that ripped to shreds Scott's legislative agenda and ignored his requests. Scott has continued after session to tongue-lash his fellow Republicans for taking actions _ including their refusal to set aside money for business incentives and their decision to slash funding for the state's tourism marketing agency _that the governor says will cost jobs. He has also chided the GOP-controlled Legislature for crafting a budget largely in secret.

Scott has publicly thrown out the possibility he may veto the entire budget to register his displeasure. He could also just use his veto pen to wipe out individual spending items in the state budget.

Meanwhile, school district officials, citing the relative low per-pupil increase contained in this year's budget, have called on Scott to veto the main appropriation that goes to public schools.

If Scott vetoes the budget - or limits it to just the schools line item (known officially as the Florida Education Finance Program, or FEFP and which totals nearly $8 billion in state money) it would trigger the need for a special session.

That's why there's a level of anxiety building about the timeline and the governor's possible actions because time is running out as summer bears down. There's also a threat of a government shutdown if things are unresolved by July 1, although it would be likely that Scott would declare an emergency and use his emergency powers to authorize state spending.

Another layer of complexity: Legislators could give Scott the budget very soon - but they could hold back on other key bills including HB 7069 - the education train that has drawn fierce criticism and support across the education spectrum. That's important because that bill includes more than $400 million - including money for the contentious Schools of Hope charter school proposal and money for teacher bonuses. (Another important thing to remember - nothing requires legislators to place all spending in one bill.)

So you have a scenario where legislators could give the main budget today - but then wait until later to give the education bill.

Legislators could argue they can't spend any of the money tied to other bills if Scott ordered them into a special session. Legislators could also play their own waiting game and hold back the budget altogether in an effort to run out the clock. Some legal experts have argued that lawmakers must deliver bills by the effective date (the date a bill becomes law if signed by governor), but again this is uncharted legal territory and hasn't really been tested in a court.

Of course nothing stops the governor from saying now - I will veto the budget, or I will veto the schools portion - and issuing a order that tells legislators when they are returning to Tallahassee.

The risk is that the governor could suffer a veto override - which could be an embarrassment for Scott and a sign that he is lame duck with more than a year left in his term.

But Scott has a tad more leverage than usual because as noted legislators broke up some key items into several bills. He's already signed the Lake O bill - which is a top priority for Senate President Joe Negron.

Scott could also sign Negron's higher education overhaul, the separate bill that authorized state worker pay raises (a top priority for Sen. Jack Latvala) and then rally Democrats to his side by vetoing HB 7069, which is a top priority for Corcoran but which has been roundly criticized by Democrats, the state's teacher union and school superintendents. (One last scenario is that Scott could just veto the money included in HB 7069 and leave the bill intact.)

A hidden veto-proof budget item?...Much has been made this year by legislative leaders about how transparent the budget process was - and how they would take steps to make sure individual spending items were listed in the main appropriations act so that everyone would know that they were there and that the governor would have the opportunity to veto them.

Well....

That's not what happened with one of the top priorities of Negron.

The Legislature passed a sweeping higher education bill (SB 374) that calls for the creation of a new programs designed to help universities hire more top-flight faculty in an effort to boost their national reputations. There's also an effort to boost the graduate and professional schools at Florida's public universities as well.

In all legislators agreed to put aside more than $120 million for these two programs.

But despite it being a new program the funding isn't broken out anywhere - nor is there a separate listing spelling out how much each university will receive. Instead all that money got included in the giant $4.06 billion main line item for universities.

If you want to find out how much each school got, it's included in a spreadsheet drawn by Senate staff.

When asked if this violated new transparency budget rules, Katie Betta, a spokeswoman for Negron said: "These are statewide programs for the university system, not local funding initiatives."

Of course by doing it this way the only way Scott is left with limited options: He could veto the entire university budget line item, which would also trigger the need for a special session. Or he could veto the stand-alone bill, meaning there is no authorization for the increased spending. Or lastly - Scott could challenge the spending on the two programs by arguing there's nothing that legally allows the universities to access the money.

Even though the Senate staff has prepared a worksheet that details how it works - so-called budget "work papers" are not legally binding according to the Florida Supreme Court.

Just add this to ongoing intrigue at the state Capitol at the weeks ahead.

 

The looming budget battle in Florida: A primer

Well, here we go.

After watching the prelude for weeks, the Florida Legislature and its Republican leaders will finally put pen to paper this week (so to speak) and release their detailed spending plans for the coming fiscal year.

After listening to leaders in the House and Senate discuss their priorities, the expectations are that the rival budgets could be widely divergent in what they cut, what they keep and what they enhance.

There are a multiple reasons for that, whether it's Senate President Joe Negron's push for increased money for state universities, or House Speaker Richard Corcoran's insistence that the state shutter its economic development agency Enterprise Florida.

But less noticed is that the House, Senate and Gov. Rick Scott have chosen to include information that supports their arguments, while seemingly sidestepping other salient points. This could influence the tenor of the debate that is about to intensify.

So it might be worthwhile and step back for just a second to recall how everybody got here and what's important to remember for the budget battle that still lies ahead.

So here's a few things to understand:

DON'T CALL IT A DEFICIT: There is no budget deficit this year. Plain and simple.

To understand the underlying budget situation, it's important to realize this. In Florida a deficit occurs when the state collects less money than what is needed to pay for things that are in the budget.

Florida's tax collections are in fact growing. The main budget account - known as the general revenue account - is expected to grow in the current fiscal year by 4.4 percent, or $1.23 billion.  This same account, which relies on a variety of tax sources but primarily the state's sales tax, is expected to grow $1.16 billion - or 3.9 percent - in the fiscal year that starts on July 1. That's a stark difference from the depths of The Great Recession when legislators were required to cut spending (or in 2009 raises taxes) to make the math work.

So then where does the confusion lie?

Well, let's start with a document called the Long-Range Financial Outlook. Thanks to current Sen. Tom Lee, the voters in 2006 approved a constitutional amendment that requires the development of an outlook that looks out over a three-year period and reviews both sides of the ledger - the expected spending and the revenue coming in.

The outlook comes out once a year. The one approved in September found that when balanced together legislators had a windfall of only $7.5 million for the 2017-18 fiscal year. And the economists and analysts who put it together warned of a "structural imbalance" that could create a sizable budget gap in the years to follow. That has sparked talk of deep budget cuts including a House plan to cut at least $1.4 billion alone in the coming year.

But it's important to remember this budget gap is a summary of both revenues - and expenses.

The long-range outlook put together assumes nearly 50 different expenditures - and that greatly impacts the bottom line.

Let's start with tax cuts: The overall outlook assumes that there will be $254 million in recurring tax cuts in each of the next three years. This is based on a historical average in recent years, but the point is this, part of the projected gap is based on the assumption that legislators will continue to cut taxes, which adds to the potential shortfall, which helps trigger the need for cuts elsewhere to close that gap.

The budget shortfall or gap that is projected to occur is also driven by a long line of other spending decisions where economists plugged in the numbers based on historical decisions made by legislators: The outlook assumes a $1 billion reserve on top of other existing budget reserves. It assumes that legislators will fully fund increased enrollment in public schools, pay for increases in Medicaid, and set aside more than $400 million over the next three years to pay for increased costs associated with the state employee health insurance program.

But there's more - the outlook assumes an increase of per-student funding above enrollment growth, grants to libraries and museums, local government park grants, and in the out years money spent on replacing a law-enforcement radio system and the replacement of Florida's accounting system.

So what does that mean? In reality, the budget debate is one about choices.

Do legislators choose to keep cutting taxes? Do they choose to keep spending money on certain things? Do they choose to make deep cuts due to a philosophical belief that government is too big and too expensive? Do they refuse to revisit past decisions that contribute to their structural imbalance - including for example - decisions to give out tax credits to various businesses. This could include anything from the insurance tax credit that is targeted by the Senate, or the tax credit scholarship program that continues to grow. (The amount of tax credits available for the scholarship program is projected to increase from $559 million this fiscal year to nearly $699 million next year.)

THE SCHOOL TAX DEBATE:  If there is one item that could derail the entire budget process it's the thorny annual dilemma over school property taxes.

Here's the problem: As property values rise, this translates into more money collected by local school districts that could be spent on public schools. In other words, if the value of your home goes up you will pay more in taxes in the coming year - unless the tax rate is lowered by an equal amount to offset the increase in values.

Legislators don't appropriate this local property tax money - BUT - they do draw up spending plans that assumes a mixture of both local and state funding. This is known as the Florida Education Finance Program or FEFP and districts that wish to draw down the state funding must collect a certain amount of money. (This is known as the required local effort or RLE.)

Republican leaders, including Scott, have used these increased local tax dollars to boost the overall amount spent on public schools. Some legislators have defended the practice by noting when property values plunged during the Great Recession that the state helped offset the loss (but not completely.) 

But Corcoran has vowed that he will not let this happen this year - and he's taken a much stronger stance on this than practically every other spending item in play.

Important piece of history: Corcoran was chief of staff for then-House Speaker Marco Rubio when the Legislature waged a lengthy debate over property taxes during a time when Florida's real-estate market was super heated. The position of the GOP-controlled Legislature at the time was pretty simple: If local governments take in more tax dollars because of rising values, then it's a tax increase. Legislators forced cities and counties to roll back their tax rates. So Corcoran is being consistent with that position. (Also worth noting: Several senators, then in the Florida House, also took that position. Dennis Baxley, Anitere Flores, Bill Galvano, Denise Grimsley and Perry Thurston voted in favor of the bill to force local tax rollbacks.)

Scott has maintained that this isn't a tax increase and his own budget recommendation relies on nearly $558 million in increased local school taxes to help pay for an overall 3 percent increase in per-student funding. Scott has tried to suggest this is no different than if the price of a car goes up and you pay higher taxes  because of the higher price. Yeah, but the government doesn't set the price of a car. In this instance government at both the state and local level have a hand in deciding how much property owners will spend.

BREAKING DOWN OTHER FLASHPOINTS...Quick hits on remaining things to look for and understand:

GAMBLING: Right now all these budget projections being thrown out do not assume any changes in Florida's gambling laws or a new compact with the Seminole Tribe. That means if - and it's a pretty big if - legislators could stroke a deal with the Seminoles and the rest of the players in the seemingly intractable gambling turf war it could provide an injection of cash that could help smooth things over.

GULF COAST SPILL MONEY: While this may not command a lot of attention around the state, the ongoing tug-of-war over money the state received as part of a settlement over the 2010 BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is part of the overall dynamic that will decide how this session ends up. The state last year got $400 million as its first installment. Under an existing law some $300 million is supposed to go to eight Panhandle counties that were impacted the most by the spill. But the Legislature has to yet to agree to send the money out the door.

Corcoran and House leaders didn't like the arrangement allowed under the existing law so they have crafted a bill that places more oversight on the spending - and prohibits any of the money being used on economic development projects. The Senate so far has a different approach and they have not agreed to all the House restrictions. This money is a big, big deal to the Panhandle Republicans and in Tallahassee parlance - this is their going home bill - meaning they can't go home unless they get it worked out.

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: This item has gotten plenty of press especially since it has triggered a feud between Scott - who wants to keep funding intact for the state's economic development agency - and House leaders who want to eliminate Enterprise Florida and scale back Visit Florida, the tourism marking agency. The Senate so far is siding with Scott. The question is will they remain in sync with the governor all the way to the finish line.

HIGHER EDUCATION: Negron's bid to increase funding to state universities as part of an effort to propel them into the top ranks of the nation's public colleges is going to be rebuffed by House leaders who contend that universities are misspending what they have now (some of which came with the help of legislators who placed projects into university spending lines.) The one word of caution in this debate is that numbers get thrown around sometimes without a clear sense of what they mean.

Universities are dependent on several streams of funding and it appears so far that the House is lumping everything in to make an argument about overall spending. There are differences between straight state funding and the money that universities take in from other sources - whether it's tuition, money from federal grants, or money medical schools earn from seeing patients. For example, the amount of tuition money can go up even if the rates don't because universities admit more students. T

The House has zeroed in on spending among the foundations and whether it's proper for the universities to use state funding to subsidize fundraising operations. So far, the universities have had a muted response and not given a clear explanation as to practice. One big question is whether or not the House will advocate for blocking universities from using their foundations to pay university employees above state limits.

TRUST FUNDS: It's important to remember that some taxes and fees charged by the state don't wind up in the main budget account. Instead they are set aside in what are known as trust funds. Year in and year out special interests groups argue that money collected in these funds belong to them. And year after year the Legislature politely ignores this and transfers money of these trust funds and uses to help balance the budget.

SPEND NOW, PAY LATER? Unlike the federal government, Florida is required to have a balanced budget every year. That doesn't mean of course the state doesn't have debt. It does.

Until Scott came into office, past governors and legislators authorized borrowing for fixed capital costs such as building college buildings, roads and acquiring environmentally-sensitive lands. Scott started drawing a firm line about this and led the charge to push down the state's debt load. As of last June, it was $24.1 billion or more than $4 billion lower than it was when Scott came into office.

Negron's plan to build a reservoir south of Lake Okeechobee calls for increased borrowing. Currently the bill moving authorizes more than $3 billion in bonding authority to go to various projects, but with an estimated $1.2 billion going to the reservoir project. But that's not what is needed right away in this year's budget.

If the plan is approved it would carry an estimated $100 million price-tag to this year's budget since the bonds would be paid back over 20 years in installments.

So Negron's plan has an immediate cost to the treasury, but it's also important to understand that the full amount of his project will not included in this year's budget.

BOTTOM LINE: Under the current schedule legislators are operating under the House and Senate are expected to pass their budgets during the second week of April.

That week is already truncated because of religious holidays so it is highly unlikely that any negotiations or work can begin until April 17. That means legislators will have about 15 days to get everything worked out in order to get a budget finished on time. That's because Florida law requires the budget to be finished 72 hours before the final vote.

So that's a lot of ground to cover in a short amount of time. Besides the above-mentioned topics there's other issues at play, including pay raises, more money for charter schools etc.

The clock is ticking.

What will Rick Scott version 5.0 look like?

This Friday another era comes to a close for Florida Gov. Rick Scott.

That's when Melissa Sellers will give way to Kim McDougal (both pictured left) as McDougal takes on the sometimes overwhelming job as chief of staff for Scott.

Sellers, who once worked for former Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, is remaining in Tallahassee and opening her own consulting firm.

This much is clear: McDougal and Sellers have different backgrounds, different resumes and different styles. McDougal is a veteran state employee who has spent most of her career focused on education and only recently made a deep dive into the political realm.

The big change for her came in 2014 when she went on leave from her job in the governor's office as an education analyst to help with Scott's re-election campaign. McDougal helped draw up Scott's education platform for his campaign but she was deeply involved with Scott's tightrope walk on how to deal with Common Core.

One of McDougal's jobs that summer was to meet with groups deeply opposed to Common Core, which still remain embedded in the standards that Florida is using in its public schools. McDougal's outreach was successful enough to win an endorsement from one of the groups on the eve of the election. (Which was probably important in a contest decided by just 64,000 votes out of 6 million cast.)

Because of her lengthy experience the expectation is that McDougal will retain her oversight of education matters for Scott. And that probably means no dramatic swings away from current policies or a need to make any big personnel changes. (Scott has been a pretty firm supporter of Education Commissioner Pam Stewart.)

Word is that after the departures of Sellers and General Counsel Tim Cerio other people working in the governor's office - including Deputy Chief of Staff (and former Louisiana resident) Frank Collins will remain in their same roles.

But the real big question for Capitol insiders - and ultimately Floridians - is whether or not Gov. Scott will pivot once again with a new chief of staff in place.

Because one of the most interesting aspects of Scott's five-plus years in office is that he has been willing to alter his style, his interactions and sometimes even his policies based on the input from those closest to him at the time.

There are those who speculate that Sellers will remain a trusted voice and may be doing a warm up routine for a potential 2018 U.S. Senate run for Scott. (Although there is a division of opinion about this as well.)

Another maxim, however, is that "no one gets out of Scott World alive." This means that once someone is removed from the orbit of influence it's impossible to get back in. (Key example: Sellers was Scott's campaign manager during a time when he was focused on the campaign. After the re-election, he installed her in as chief of staff in place of Adam Hollingsworth. Word is that Hollingsworth didn't know this was coming.)

Going all the way back to the start there are clear lines of demarcation for Scott when one person leaves and another steps in.

His first few months in 2011 Scott was combative with the press, with the Legislature and came on strong with a Tea Party influenced agenda that including killing high speed rail between Tampa and Orlando. Lobbyists were barred from meeting with Scott and top governor's office staff. The chief of staff at the time was officially Mike Prendergast, but the view is that the person who had the most influence at the time was his senior adviser Mary Anne Carter. Carter was a complete outsider to Tallahassee and once she left her position she didn't hang around in town.

But Prendergast (and Carter) were followed by Steve MacNamara, a long-time veteran of the Tallahassee scene who has been a university professor, a lobbyist and held stints as the chief of staff for two legislative leaders. It was MacNamara who tried to ease tensions with the press and tried to steer Scott into a more cooperative relationship with the Legislature. The blanket ban on lobbyists was lifted. Suddenly Scott was dressing more informally and holding lengthy sessions with the media in the governor's office. Scott visited newspaper editorial boards and scheduled work days to interact with normal Floridians.

MacNamara, however, departed in the summer of 2012 amid a series of articles detailing his role in contracts and his interactions with agencies. (Later it would be revealed in emails that MacNamara's influence with Scott was severely tested during the 2012 session of the Florida Legislature. Emails showed that MacNamara tried in vain to get the governor to veto a bill creating Florida Polytechnic University while encouraging him to approve a bill that would have given additional tuition raising power to University of Florida and Florida State University.)

He was followed by Hollingsworth, whose main job was to figure out how to rehabilitate Scott in such a way that he would have a shot at getting re-elected even though poll numbers suggested it was near impossible task. Hollingsworth was seen as someone who would quickly urge Scott to deal with potential problems and embarrassments heading into the 2014 elections. Former Lt. Gov. Jennifer Carroll has said it was Hollingsworth who showed up to tell her that the governor wanted to resign following her questioning by law-enforcement authorities investigating a veterans charity engaged in what was deemed to be illegal gambling. (The charity had hired Carroll before she ran with Scott but no charges were ever brought against her.)

Hollingsworth was at the helm during one of Scott's most notable moments during his first term: His complete 180-degree turn on Medicaid expansion and the Affordable Care Act pushed by President Barack Obama. Even today, it remains somewhat remarkable that Scott - who railed against Obamacare and even had run television ads attacking it - would come out publicly in favor of accepting billions in federal aid to expand who was eligible for Medicaid. (Under Sellers - and after his re-election - Scott would reverse course again and side with the Florida House in 2015 in opposition to Medicaid expansion.)

Other pivots, not as dramatic, also occurred such as Scott's decision to back in-state tuition rates for the children of illegal immigrants despite winning election in a 2010 platform that promised support for a crackdown on illegal immigration.

Starting under Hollingsworth (who brought on Sellers to serve as communications director) and continuing ever since she took over, Scott returned to limiting interactions with the press in Tallahassee. He cut down on appearances on conservative radio stations and instead shifted to appearances on national television outlets. And a combative side of Scott returned. He sued the federal government over Medicaid funding and he ordered an investigation of Planned Parenthood clinics last summer. Scott has ratcheted back up his criticisms of Obama. His push to get rid of the Florida Department of Law Enforcement Commissioner led to allegations, apologies and lawsuits.

Yet ever since his re-election and Sellers ascension to chief of staff Scott has had a difficult time with his fellow Republicans in the Legislature and has had trouble winning passage of his priorities. There's lots of finger-pointing as to who is to blame (is it staff? Is it Scott's decision to not raise money for the state party? Is it ideologues in the House?) but the net result is that his two top priorities this year, including a $250 million business incentive pool, were largely ignored by legislators. There are some who say that Scott is isolated from those in the GOP and that has contributed to the problem.

But this month Scott did make a tactical decision to limit his losses. Instead of drawing out the battle he signed this year's state budget and did not engage in the long line of budget vetoes that some lawmakers had been expecting. (Senate budget chairman Tom Lee predicted $500 million in vetoes at one point and Scott did roughly half that.) Talk of possible veto overrides has disappeared and the good thing for Scott is that legislators probably won't return to the Capitol until November.

The governor still has a tremendous amount of time left in his second term in office so there's plenty of time for him to repair relations if he wants to. By tapping McDougal he has found someone who has a good idea about how the capital works - but is less familiar with the political ramifications of every decision that the governor makes.

Scott of course will continue to place a large part of his focus on the state's economy and job creation since it's the message that has helped him in two elections (and remains a top concern for most Floridians.)

But will he take a more pragmatic approach on dealing with the Legislature, dealing with the press, and figuring out what to do in the myriad of issues that confront him on a daily basis? For example: One of the less touched on elements of Sellers time as chief of staff is that Scott brought in Julie Jones to run the Department of Corrections. While problems remains in the state's troubled prison agency, there are signs that Jones has tried to reform the department (although she too lost out this session on getting the Legislature to bless all of here proposed changes.)

So the question is will Scott change direction yet again with McDougal now on board?

Will the next two and a half years be relatively quiet and will the governor and McDougal have a caretaker attitude, or will there be new initiatives, new promises, and new conflicts with the two incoming legislative leaders? The next House speaker - Richard Corcoran - has a lengthy list of contentious items he wants to tackle that could prove challenging for Scott.

Will Scott - who never had been a politician until running for governor - present Floridians with another version of himself? Or will he stick to what he's given voters so far?

5 biggest questions for the 2016 session

After one of the most tumultuous years since Republicans assumed control of the Florida Legislature - the GOP-controlled House and Senate return this week for a 60-day jaunt that many legislative leaders hope/predict is relatively calm and uneventful heading into what could be a highly unpredictable election year.

Most insiders of course can recount the score: The budget meltdown, the abrupt ending of the 2015 regular session, two failed redistricting special sessions, a budget finally passed with days to go before a state government shutdown.

Legislators are returning early this year as part of an experiment to move up the date so that lawmakers can be back home in time to spend spring break with their families. (It would take a change in the constitution to move up session start for every year.)

Here then are the 5 biggest questions of session:

Can everybody just get along?

The expectation is that the resolution of the long-simmering Senate presidency battle (which was won by Sen. Joe Negron) and the Senate's tabling of Medicaid expansion should make it easier to reach a consensus on the state budget and other issues. Throw in the fact that it's an election year and there is an anticipation that there will be a willingness to compromise. But that may not capture the complicated situation at hand.

First all, there's Gov. Rick Scott who enters the session with a longer wish list than normal. And it's not just the $1 billion tax cut package and Enterprise Florida reforms that the governor wants (although that appears to be a big ask). Scott put together a $3 billion gambling deal with the Seminoles and he's also pursuing his health care transparency package.

Last year Scott showed that there is a price to pay (through his substantial budget vetoes) if you don't go his way. So you can be assured that remains on the minds of many legislators.

But let's not forget there are some Scott agency heads whose fates remained unresolved, or that there remains a split in fundraising/political activities that has resulted in the Senate and Scott raising money separately from the party. You can also throw in the whole unsettled situation in the Senate due to a redrawn state Senate map that could theoretically force some senators to moderate their positions.

Lastly, a key question is how supporters of former Gov. Jeb Bush and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio in the Legislature will view Scott's decision to nudge ever so closely to endorsing GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump.

Say what you will about the sausage-making in the state Capitol a lot of it still depends on connections and relationships and many of the items cited could play a role. And if Scott is viewed as isolated from members of his party then there is even less willingness to work with him.

Is it possible to ever reach an agreement on gambling?

Well, you certainly wouldn't want to bet on it given the competing forces (including dog and horse tracks from outside of South Florida) who don't like some of the fine print on the deal that Scott reached with the Seminole Tribe. In the past few years attempts to pass major gambling bills have floundered amid the Scylla and Charybdis that exists in the Legislature on this issue.

But Scott remains a wild card on this. The governor, who began his business career as a deal maker, put together a proposed compact with tribal officials that was guaranteed to get big headlines and promised a big payout.

Throughout his time as governor Scott has remained, for lack of a better word, agnostic about gambling in the state. In other words, the governor isn't going to back the tribe, the dog tracks, the anti-gambling factions including Disney, Las Vegas casino owner Sheldon Adelson, or even Trump at all cost.

It would not be surprising if Scott's approach is basically: 'Hey, I helped put together a deal. Tribe, it's up to you and your lobbyists to get it passed.' And more importantly, is Scott amenable to changes as long as the overarching achievement - the money in the state's bank account is unchanged? Signs point to yes.

Tribal officials - who are still locked in a court battle over whether they can keep blackjack tables in their casinos under the 2010 deal that expired last summer - may have to decide if they need to cobble together something that makes everyone happy. Or decide if they could take their chances and just wait until next year.

Scott has been very deferential so far in his public pronouncements and has made it clear that it's up to the Legislature to work something out. If it doesn't happen the governor can maintain it wasn't his fault.

How many gun bills will reach their target?

Apart from the budget and gambling battles, you can expect a fair amount of attention in the media to be focused on the gun bills already moving through the Legislature. These include bills allowing open carry of firearms, guns on college campuses and changes to the Stand Your Ground law.

The decision by legislative leaders to already allow these bills to move through legislative committees even before the start of the 60-day session is a sign that there is considerable support for them.

And President Barack Obama's decision to pursue actions on guns on the federal level will likely add momentum as GOP legislators will be able to contrast their actions at the state level with what's happening with D.C.

Plus long-time National Rifle Association lobbyist Marion Hammer has made it abundantly clear that she and her supporters have no plans to modify their stances on these bills. Hammer has told everyone that she will be keep pushing the legislation for as long as it takes.

Put that together and it would reasonable to assume that most, if not all, of the bills stand a good chance of reaching Scott's desk later this year. Yes, there is opposition to the various bills, including Florida State University President John Thrasher and university police chiefs on campus carry to some of Florida's sheriff's on open carry.

But the gun bills give Republicans a chance to do something that will fire up their own political base heading into what could be a chaotic election season.

There is a caveat with all of this though and that's the unresolved question of whether the new Senate districts (which appear to tilt toward Democrats) will persuade some senators that contentious issues of this sort need to be put on hold until 2017.

How will the growing power of Joe Negron and Richard Corcoran affect the process?

The general theory about the Legislature is that the influence/power of the outgoing legislative leaders begins to ebb during their second session while the clout of their successors begins to grow.

There have been exceptions to that rule over the years i.e. Dean Cannon as House speaker and John McKay as Senate president.

There will be those who will make snide comments that Corcoran, a former top aide to Rubio and current House budget chief, already has considerable sway in the House. Yes there are many signs that he does wield a good deal of influence, but expect it to get even larger.

Among some insiders who follow the process the operating theory right now is that House Speaker Steve Crisafulli and Senate President Andy Gardiner will get to watch their top priorities pass in the opening days of the session. (For Crisafulli, a potential Agriculture Commissioner candidate, that's a comprehensive water bill, while for Gardiner it's bills to aid families with children who have developmental disabilities.)

After that moment of comity, the rest of the session will be conducted in Corcoran and Negron's shadow. That could affect plenty of important bills, whether it's Negron's support of a measure to legalize/regulate fantasy sports to the judiciary reforms that Corcoran has already promised to push through.

Other considerations: Negron, an attorney, has clashed in the past with the insurance industry so that may make it hard for them to push through changes opposed by trial attorneys such as the revamp of assignment of benefits. Corcoran - along with his successor Rep. Jose Oliva - have expressed skepticism about for targeted business incentives like those championed by Scott or for items such as film incentives or subsidies to sports teams and operations.

Will this really be a do-nothing year for the Florida Legislature?

Talk to most lobbyists and they will quietly concur: This may be a really tough year to get anything substantial passed.

The reasons are many, starting with the epic battles of last year (see No. 1) to what appears to be an unpredictable election year (see Trump, Donald.)

There is a feeling right now that any attempt to move major changes/reforms in key areas will be difficult. It's not just the gambling deal with the tribe. This could flow to everything else including the types of tax cuts, health care changes pursued by the House to some of the environmental bills being pursued to alimony reform and major education bills. If Republican leaders are intent on putting aside any public disagreements then the easiest way may be to just deep-six many of the more contentious proposals.

As of this past weekend, 1,644 bills have been filed which does appear to put the Legislature on pace to meet last year's totals so maybe legislators themselves remain somewhat optimistic that they can things done. There is always a natural tendency for the Legislature to try to fix/improve/change things and have something to campaign about in the fall.

But the most substantial year for legislation in recent years was 2011 when you had a new governor and a supermajority in the Legislature following the 2010 wave year for the GOP. That track record suggests that 2016 will be relatively quiet.

A new champion for Florida's universities emerges

For those who follow the intrigue of internal legislative politics, the Wednesday designation of Sen. Joe Negron as the Republican nominee for Senate president will bring an end to a fascinating drama that featured everything from betrayal, to whispers of cross-party courtships to the supposed root cause of the dysfunction that had permeated the Senate as it lurched from a budget crisis to a redistricting crisis to... you name it.

Negron, as Tallahassee insiders know, was able to obtain the presidency over Sen. Jack Latvala. A deal that resulted in Latvala bowing out - while he got the nod as the next appropriations chairman - was announced in early November.

There's no doubt that a Latvala presidency would have been an interesting sight - especially given his admonitions at times to some of the top employees of the administration of Gov. Rick Scott.

But the elevation of Negron may bring its own drama to watch.

And that's because it appears that the 54-year-old Stuart attorney may be willing to challenge the current game plan for Florida's universities that has been advocated by the governor.

Scott's foray into Florida's higher education universe has been one that has created conflicts, controversy and finally acquiescence from GOP legislators and university officials.

Some of Scott's initial efforts - like the time he urged then Florida A&M University President James Ammons be suspended during an ongoing investigation into the hazing related death of drum major Robert Champion - were met with fierce resistance.

Scott in 2012 backed the creation of the stand-alone Florida Polytechnic University despite being urged by his own chief of staff to veto the bill.

Scott also played a role in the decision to keep Bernie Machen on as University of Florida president. Machen had planned to step down at the end of 2013 but said he was persuaded by Scott to remain on board longer because the governor would help him elevate UF. This came a few months after Scott had vetoed a bill to aid both UF and Florida State University because it would have given both schools additional powers to raise tuition above limits set in state law. What was odd about the entire incident is that emails show that UF trustees were on the verge of naming a new president just days before it was announced Machen was staying.

Scott has also been firm about lowering Florida's debt obligations - and that has meant he has been opposed to issuing bonds for such traditional uses as new university buildings (a move that has perplexed university trustees). He also gone along with efforts to incorporate performance funding into university appropriations.

But Scott's chief mantra when it comes to higher education is that Florida should do everything possible to keep the cost of higher education as low as possible - saying it should remain affordable because residents need a college education to get a decent job.

He's pushed colleges to create low-cost degree programs. The Republican governor has also since 2012 engaged in a unwavering battle against tuition hikes. Scott began calling tuition hikes a form of a tax hike and he pushed legislators to roll back a state law adopted under then Gov. Charlie Crist that was intended to give universities the ability to raise tuition without having to get annual approval from the Florida Legislature.

In the beginning, then House Speaker Will Weatherford resisted Scott on tuition. During one visit to the Board of Governors _ the panel that oversees the state university system _ he even held up a cellphone and said that students were paying more for their bills then for tuition. But Weatherford finally gave way to Scott and during the session ahead of the 2014 elections he backed the legislation that eliminated the ability of most universities - save UF and FSU - from being able to raise tuition on their own.

After winning that battle, Scott has forged onward even trying unsuccessfully in 2015 to place limits on graduate student tuition.

But Negron appears ready to change the conversation away from costs and instead focus on it on long-term goals.

He plans on Wednesday to outline his steps to make Florida's universities "national destination elite universities" that attract out-of-state students in the way that University of North Carolina and University of Michigan do.

"I’m laying down a marker that universities are a priority," said Negron this week. "I think Florida has made great progress, but I think when you look at states like North Carolina and Virginia I think we can help our universities get to the next level."

Negron, who put three kids through college including two who attended UF and FSU, said he views universities as "indispensable" to creating an "economically vital state."

Negron's concerns about higher education aren't necessarily new. He was the main force behind a move to limit the ability of state colleges to start offering four-year degree programs which Negron labeled "mission creep" by schools who initially started out as only offering two-year degrees.

Among the things that Negron says he wants to do is help universities recruit and retain faculty and make sure the state's graduate schools have what they need to compete nationally.

Of course, all of these things would cost more money. The two main sources for Florida's public universities are tuition or increased state support and that''s where things get complicated.

Negron, who was at one time the Senate budget chief, says he believes there is enough money already in the budget to increase funding to universities.

But he also has a difference of opinion about tuition.

"I agree we want to make sure a university education is affordable," Negron said. "But Florida has one of the lowest tuition rates in the country...Getting a four-year degree is very reasonable."

Negron is expected to give more details on his plans during his designation speech. The key question will be, however, whether Negron's push will open yet another battlefront in a never-ending tug-of-war with the governor.

Mind-meld: Where President Obama and Gov. Rick Scott 100 percent agree

Here's a few recent statements that have been made in the last few weeks that come from two elected officials who hail from different parties and usually have very little in common.

1. "I believe that America is not a place where higher education is a privilege that is reserved for the few.  America needs to be a place where higher education has to be available for every single person who’s willing to strive for it, who’s willing to work for it."

2. "Students can spend their money better than government can. It should not require a federal loan and decades of debt for students to get a college degree. Price limits access – plain and simple."

3. "A college degree is the surest ticket to the middle class and beyond.  It’s the key to getting a good job that pays a good income.  And it offers a measure of security, because a college degree tells employers that you don’t just have one set of skills; that you’ve got the continuous capacity to learn new skills, which is going to be particularly important for your generation because the economy is going to churn and change in ways that none of us can even anticipate."

4. "If we are going to out-compete the world, the second thing we must do is make higher education more affordable....Just like any business, we should expect education to become more affordable each year, not more expensive."

The quotes above come from U.S. President Barack Obama during a recent appearance at Georgia Tech University and Florida Gov. Rick Scott during his State of the State speech earlier this month.

Scott. a Republican who got elected in part to a tea party wave in 2010, has waged two campaigns where a key part of both them was a constant barrage of criticism for the Democratic president.

Scott's entry into the political world, after all, started when the former health care executive began assailing Obama's health care overhaul. And Scott has not stopped there. He's hit Obama over a whole variety of issues since then.

But when it comes to college affordability the two sound remarkably similar even if their approaches are a tad different.

Scott, whose talking points usually include mentions of his poor upbringing that was changed by a brief stint in the military followed by college, has been very populist when it comes to the cost of college.

During his first term in office, Scott resisted tuition increases for undergraduates. And then he pushed to repeal a law _ which was widely supported by many Republicans at the time _ that gave Florida's universities the ability to raise tuition above levels approved by the Legislature. Scott even went so far as to label tuition hikes akin to tax hikes (which could give potential future GOP U.S. Senate candidates in Florida such as Jeff Atwater and Carlos Lopez-Cantera something to worry about.)

One of Scott's talking points during the 2014 campaign against his rival Charlie Crist was that Scott undid the tuition law approved while Crist was governor.

The move created big savings for those parents who had purchased pre-paid tuition plans because the plans had been been based on assumptions that tuition would keep increasing at a certain rate. In early March, it was announced that the number of pre-paid tuition plans that had been sold this year tripled, a fact that Scott highlighted.

But like Obama _ who confronts a GOP-led Congress resistant to many of his plans including a push to make community college free in the U.S. _ Scott's own push this year for college affordability appears in for a rough reception.

Scott, who will meet today with student body presidents to tout his proposal, wants the Florida Legislature to eliminate the sales tax on college textbooks, require more transparency about college costs and put in limits on tuition hikes charged by graduate schools.

The Senate bill, which contains all these proposals, has yet to get a hearing even though it is sponsored by Sen. Anitere Flores, a Republican from Miami. A House bill that contains the sales tax exemption for textbooks has also yet to be heard.

While Florida's university officials have not spoken out against Scott's proposals there hasn't been a rush from anyone to endorse them either.

Florida's Board of Governors _ the panel that oversees the state's public universities _ is currently looking at affordability and today Chancellor Marshall Criser III is expected to discuss the issue further.

But behind the scenes one of the concerns expressed about Scott's proposal to limit graduate tuition costs is that there is an argument that medical schools, law schools and other professional programs are supposed to be market driven and tied to supply and demand. (Discuss amongst yourself if this is a Republican idea.) Some of these programs are also some of the most expensive for universities to operate.

Scott entered the 2015 legislative session with a small list of priorities that includes tax cuts, a boost in school funding and the college affordability bill.

But right now it looks like Scott's quest to rein in college costs could be the part of his agenda that is least likely to pass.

So when Scott meets Obama on an airport tarmac in the future they may have something else they could talk about.

John Thrasher's secret lobbying dilemma

There's no question that the decision by powerful State Sen. John Thrasher to seek the presidency of Florida State University has created a bit of a controversy especially among some members of the faculty and students.

A lot of the debate has centered on Thrasher's political career where he has been a loyal Republican who has also been willing to cross swords with unions and public school teachers.

Thrasher has also had a dramatic role in the reshaping of higher education in Florida.

At a restaurant meeting in Orlando with then-Gov. Jeb Bush it was then-House Speaker Thrasher who drew up on a napkin the plan to dissolve the statewide Board of Regents and replace it with local boards of trustees at each state university. It was the regents who at the time had thwarted at least initially plans to bring a medical school to FSU. (The plan was carried out, only to have part of it rolled back by a constitutional amendment creating the current Board of Governors.)

The big argument that supporters of Thrasher - including local political heavyweights such as former Sen. Al Lawson - is that Thrasher's presidency will help FSU in its quest to attain additional financial support in the halls of the state Capitol.

There is an overriding belief that FSU's bid to push itself into the top ranks of American research universities cannot be achieved without an increase in state money. One FSU professor speaking last week to the the presidential search committee lauded FSU alumnus Thrasher as a "successful and passionate" advocate for the school who could help bring in the added money to bolster faculty salaries and build the school's infrastructure.

There's an argument that can be made that the fractious nature of the Legislature - combined with a chief executive now in power who has made it clear that he wants universities to spend less not more - means that even someone with tremendous political capital could have difficulty achieving some sort of major windfall from the state.

But there's a more simple dilemma to deal with: John Thrasher can't really lobby the Legislature.

At least not for the next two years.

Florida's ethics laws, as they have been interpreted by the state's Ethics Commission, make it clear that Thrasher can only have a limited engagement with state legislators.

The commission has dealt with the issue several times, but most recently in 2009 with the hiring of former State Rep. Joe Pickens as a college president.

The commission has taken the position that Florida's Constitution does not allow a former legislator to lobby the Legislature even if it is viewed in the capacity of a public service position. The argument is that the prohibition applies to a higher education position because the goal of the two-year ban is to make sure that legislators do not take actions designed to help them attain the future job. (Just this past session as Thrasher was considering whether to apply for the job he pushed to split up FSU's joint engineering college with Florida A&M University.)

From that opinion:

While we have no doubt that the former member here, like the members at issue in CEO 00-7 and CEO 00-18, is merely furthering a career of service to the public, it is clear to us that neither "opportunities for personal profit through lobbying after leaving the Legislature" nor the potential for influence peddling or the appearance thereof, are exclusive to situations where the employment held after legislative service involves lobbying for private entities.

In the context of conflicts of interests we have often said that the prohibition does not hinge on the personal integrity of the individual, but is rather is prophylactic in nature. CEO 81-76, CEO 97-15. The same is true here; the prohibitions of Article II, Section 8(e) and Section 112.313(9) are clearly and directly stated, and are designed as preventive measures. As we said in CEO 81-57, "the provision seeks to preserve the integrity of the legislative process by ensuring that decisions of members of the Legislature will not be made out of regard for possible employment as lobbyists.

Since legislative decisions affect those in the public sector as well as those in the private sector, it would seem to be equally important that legislative decisions not be colored by regard for future lobbying opportunities in behalf of public entities." For these reasons we recede from our opinions in CEO 00-7 and CEO 00-18, and return to our position, stated in CEO 81-57 and CEO 90-4, that former members are prohibited from representing, for compensation, another person or entity, be it public or private, before the Legislature for a period of two years following their leaving office."

To be clear - this doesn't mean that a university president can't talk to the Legislature.

A legislative committee chairman could indeed "invite" Thrasher to appear before them to discuss issues, including funding issues. But it does mean that there are limits on Thrasher's ability to independently seek out and ask legislators for help during the frenzied 60-day period when legislators work late into the night hammering out a state budget.

Now in case you are wondering.

Thrasher, who between stints as a House and Senate member worked at a prominent lobbying firm in town, is aware of the commission decision. As is FSU'S general counsel. As is FSU Board of Trustees chairman Allan Bense.

It's just something that so far has not received a lot of public discussion so far.

When asked about it last week, Thrasher insisted it would not be an issue, especially since he is not the main lobbyist for the university.

"I don't think it's a real problem for us given the staff we have, given the few times presidents actually go over to the Capitol,'' Thrasher said. "They are going to know what we want. Trust me."

But what's also interesting is that it was Thrasher himself who wanted to go even further than what is in existing law. Two years ago it was Thrasher who sponsored a bill (SB 1560) that would have barred him from even seeking the presidency in the first place. The ethics bill stated that legislators could not work for state universities or colleges while in the Legislature or go to work for them for up to two years following their departure. The bill wound up dying in a Senate committee.

Thrasher is a "non traditional" candidate. Even the search consultant assisting FSU acknowledged that Thrasher would not be considered for a top post like this outside of the state of Florida. It's Thrasher's connections and clout in Tallahassee that make him a candidate worth considering, the consultant said.

The question, however, is whether the presidential search committee and FSU's board has a full discussion on what the 70-year-old Thrasher can achieve during the first two years that the lobbying ban is in effect.

Surprised? With lobbyists and politicians involved FSU's search turns political

The search for a new Florida State University president has turned into one of the prime political stories this summer in Florida that has nothing directly to do with the governor's race.

The intrigue surrounds whether or not state Sen. John Thrasher, a former House speaker and current chairman of Gov. Rick Scott's re-election campaign, is going to wind up with the job. Thrasher initially had the inside track for the position after a contentious narrow vote to make him the main frontrunner. But then Supreme Court Chief Justice Ricky Polston jumped into the fray and that triggered a whole series of events leading up a decision this week to revamp the entire search process. More on that here.

The idea that a Florida university would consider a politician is certainly not new. It reflects the reality that Florida's university system is built on a financial structure that is highly dependent on the good will of the Florida Legislature and the governor. Additionally, the job of president pays relatively well, can boost one's pension plan tremendously, and has a level of prestige and responsibility that is better than many political posts.

There's a long line of political figures who have led universities - whether it was former Lt. Gov. Frank Brogan at Florida Atlantic University, former House Speaker T.K. Wetherell at FSU and Education Commissioner Betty Castor at the University of South Florida. And it's true that some of those picks drew criticism over whether the candidates had the academic credentials for the post.

But the lingering question for FSU's search is whether the entire process so far is stacked in such a way that Thrasher is inevitably the person who gets the job.

Students and faculty who have protested the search have been critical of their level of participation in the search.

Allan Bense, the former House speaker and father-in-law of current House speaker Will Weatherford , nominated a 27-member committee (which was approved by the FSU Board of Trustees) that has four faculty members, three students and four people who work for the university. Contrast that with the University of Florida presidential search which on its 17-member panel has a majority with direct ties to the school: Three faculty members, two deans, three university vice presidents, one athletics administrator and one student.

Many of the other members on the FSU search committee have substantial ties to Tallahassee's politically-charged environment. That's not to say they came in with the sole purpose of picking Thrasher, but they are people who are acutely aware of the heavy role that the Legislature plays and may consider that important to FSU's future success.

That list includes Bense himself, as well as Kathryn Ballard, a trustee and husband to powerhouse lobbyist and GOP fundraiser Brian Ballard. There's also former Senate President John McKay, current state Rep. Jimmy Patronis, Delores Spearman, the wife of another big-time lobbyist Guy Spearman, Drew Weatherford, former FSU quarterback turned lobbyist and brother of the current House speaker, and Al Lawson, a former state legislator turned lobbyist.

It's worth noting that two of those members present at this week's meeting _ Weatherford and Lawson _ said they had not asked to serve on the search committee ahead of time.

"I read it in the newspaper just like everybody else,'' said Lawson, who this spring had a lobbying contract worth at least $20,000 with the FSU Board of Trustees headed by Bense. (Lawson for his part doesn't believe this constitutes a conflict on his part to serve on the search committee.)

Weatherford, who works at Strategos Public Affairs with former Rep. Trey Traviesa and former legislator and Education Commissioner Jim Horne, also said he did not ask anyone ahead of time to appoint him.

"Having been a student athlete here I think they appreciated my perspective,'' said Weatherford who added that he is also recent graduate who is not "too far removed" from campus life.

Bense defended the people he recommended for the search committee to the full FSU board saying he tried to a "cross section of folks" who had various ties to the university including alumni and athletic boosters and professors.

"I'm sure I made a lot of people unhappy,'' Bense said following this week's search committee meeting.

Bense, who has said several times that politics are a reality for university presidents to deal with, continues to insist that the search is wide open and that no one nominee has the job locked down.

"I'm doing all I can to do away with that myth,'' Bense said.

Bense also contends the decision to hire a new search consultant and to revisit the timeline now in place shows that he and other search committee members are listening.

"I do hope that the faculty recognizes that today we clearly listened to them,'' Bense said. "We're going to reset the clock and hopefully we can find a great new president."

But Lawson, who spent three decades in the Florida Legislature, said that in his mind Thrasher remains firmly "in the mix" of people that the university should consider.

"If you are not very astute to the legislative process, the university may not flourish,'' he said.

5 biggest questions of the 2014 session answered

The 2014 session of the Florida Legislature is expected to end sometime Friday night after lawmakers vote on a new $77 billion budget.

The session for the most part did live up to billing as an election-year offering designed to help Gov. Rick Scott.

That didn't mean there wasn't some of the usual tension and drama that accompanies every session.

Here then are this year's biggest questions answered:

1. Is this year's gambling legislation the real deal, or is it all for show? It was pretty much just a show. The deep divides over gambling remained in force and halfway through the session both the House and Senate shut down any consideration of any serious legislation.

At the tail end of the session Scott and his staff floated the idea of bringing a finished compact with the Seminole Tribe of Florida to legislators. One idea was to hold a special session in May to consider it.

That trial balloon was quickly shot down. And Democrats - who are seen as vital in approving any bill due to longstanding Republican opposition - locked down and said they wouldn't approve any deal unless they were involved in negotiations.

So at this point it's hard to imagine anything productive happening until maybe after this fall's elections.

2. Will the Republican-controlled Legislature really approve in-state tuition rates for the children of illegal immigrants? Yes. The Florida House is poised on the final day of the session to pass the bill and send it to Scott. And Scott plans to sign the bill once it hits his desk.

The issue of in-state tuition deeply divided GOP legislators, especially those in the Florida Senate. The bill nearly died a couple of times in that chamber as some Republicans accused Scott and others of "pandering" and not sticking with the GOP idea of requiring people to follow the law.

Sen. Jack Latvala, R-Clearwater and Senate sponsor, credited House Speaker Will Weatherford and just as importantly, Scott for keeping the issue from dying this year.

Scott, who is caught up in a tight re-election this year, halfway through the session embraced the idea of in-state tuition even though just a year ago he vetoed a bill that would have helped these same DREAMers get a temporary driver's license. Democrats accuse Scott of a cynical election year ploy, but the fact is that after years of trying those pushing the issue are finally going to get the bill passed.

As a sidelight it's interesting that while one potential 2016 presidential candidate - former Gov. Jeb Bush - came out forcefully in favor of the bill U.S. Sen. and former House Speaker Marco Rubio did not. Alex Leary of the Tampa Bay Times even noted in a posting that it appears that Rubio's position on the issue has changed since assuming federal office. Rubio supported the legislation when he was still a South Florida legislator.

3. Testing vs. vouchers Well, this one is headed down the wire.

Concerns over testing prompted the Senate sponsor of this year's bill to expand Florida's private school voucher program to pull his bill from consideration. But the House then attached the bill that would offer vouchers to middle-income families to a bill that also deals with educational services for disabled children that is a top priority for Senate President-designate Andy Gardiner.

The Senate responded with crafting a bill that includes some testing language, but not a requirement that private schools have their students take the same test as public school students. Instead the revamped proposal includes a requirement that schools with a majority of voucher students to publicly report student performance on standardized testing.

But the Senate bill got tangled up on the 59th day and Democrats refused to allow the Senate to take up the House legislation. The procedural misstep has put the bill in jeopardy of dying on the final day. Weatherford predicted that the bill would still pass before the Legislature ends Sine Die. (UPDATE: Weatherford was right. The Senate attached the legislation to another bill and pushed it through despite the objections of many Democrats.)

4. Could Rick Scott still have a tough session?

The answer was sort of.

Clearly the looming prospect of Scott's re-election hung over the entire session. Controversial proposals were jettisoned repeatedly as it became apparent that legislative leaders had no intention of sending anything too polarizing to Scott's desk.

But Scott's decision to get behind the in-state tuition bill forced the governor to engage on a tough issue. After coming out in favor of the bill, the Senate repeatedly came close to scuttling the entire proposal.

Scott's effort to get legislators to consider a deal with the Seminoles also fell flat.

But in other ways Scott fared well. He got most, if not all, of his tax cut package. His spending recommendations were not completely followed but he got a lot of what he asked for and the Senate gave a thumbs up to his appointments.

5. Will there be a libertarian wave during this year's session?

Kind of, sort of. The Legislature is expected on its final day of session to pass a bill that would authorize the use of a strain of marijuana known as "Charlotte's Web" for medical purposes.

During his defense of the bill Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fort Walton Beach, even noted that by passing the bill Florida was in fact deciding to ignore federal laws that completely outlaw all forms of marijuana.

The Legislature also - albeit narrowly - approved raising the state's speed limits.

But many other pieces of legislation to loosen up on government regulation crashed and burned, whether it was getting rid of red light cameras or deregulating the sale of liquor in grocery stores.

And then there was the big cluster over craft breweries and whether or not they could sale certain sizes of beer known as growlers. The intense firefight between the big beer distributors and the craft breweries over what kind or regulation is needed has not been resolved and the bill is expected to die in the Florida House on the final day.