The Fine Print

Keep your phones in your desk and your doors open? A peek inside Jesse's world

It's been a while, but it's time for another bit of Inside the Tally bubble news...

A PEEK INSIDE JESSE'S WORLD....Jesse Panuccio, the Harvard trained lawyer in charge of the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, has managed during his nearly three year stint to weather several storms including the highly troubled roll-out of the state's unemployment assistance online system.

Panuccio has been consistent at echoing Gov. Rick Scott's talking points about the economy as evidenced by his routine appearances at Cabinet meetings where he talks about the jobs picture in Florida. (This is something that was not done prior to Scott's arrival.)

But as a member of the Scott administration Panuccio is considered one of those who might be the most endangered.

Like other Scott appointees Panuccio needs a confirmation vote by the Florida Senate in 2016 in order to hang onto his job. Some of his most recent appearances before legislative committees have not gone smoothly, which has helped ramp up speculation about his future.

Lately however Panuccio has tried to change the agenda beyond criticism of the unemployment assistance system.

Instead he has maintained that the state needs to get aggressive cracking down on fraudsters who are using fake identities in order to lay claim to jobless benefits. He has written op-eds about the growing "crisis" of fraud and has asked state legislators for $3.5 million for a whole array of programs in his own agency to go after those seeking to rip off the unemployment benefits.

"What we are seeing in our estimation is an astounding amount of fraudulent claim activity,'' Panuccio testified to a Senate committee in early October.

When he's mentioned the fraud problem - which DEO estimates is as high as 12 percent of all claims - Panuccio has talked about criminal rings and organized conspiracies to obtain personal identifying information.

But apparently Panuccio's agency is also worried that its own employees could be thieves as well.

In March of this year DEO adopted a sweeping security policy entitled "Protocols for Protecting Personal Information." Download Policy1 11

The policy was basically enacted a couple of weeks before it was revealed that a Miami woman had been able to access personal information through the Department of Children and Families database.

The policy says that employees who work in the Bureau of Reemployment Assistance Program can't have a cellphone at their desk. They can have a phone in their desk or purse but they can't answer it if it's ringing. Other parts of the policy state employees can't use non-network printers or insert their phones into their work computers.

Apparently some DEO workers thought this new policy went too far, and was not family-friendly. One anonymous worker tried writing a letter this summer to Gov. Scott to complain.

"I can understand the no use of state phones for personal reason, however I have small children and family with heath issues. if I can't have my state phone I should be allowed to have my cell phone on my desk so that I can see if they call and I need to step outside and call them back,'' wrote the employee who said they worked in Tallahassee.

"I have been employed with the state for many years and have NEVER been treated this way," the letter goes on. "Moral(e) is pretty much GONE! If they don't trust us, they need to get rid of us."

The letter was kicked back to DEO's Inspector General who took no action because of the IG supports the department's enacted security policies.

But mandates and edicts at DEO are nothing new.

Shortly after Panuccio took in 2013 over he enacted a dress code for the department. Download Policy1 09

His dress code outlawed everything from jeans, flip-flops, even "athletic type jerseys" with the names of sports teams. The policy made it clear that the dress code was to be followed even on Fridays.

"Employees should always look neat and professional, in clean, pressed clothing,'' states the policy.

Recently another DEO employee contended that there was another policy in place at one of DEO's offices.

A report from Scott's own chief inspector general cited an employee who complained that all employees were required to keep their office doors open and that she was reprimanded because she violated the policy. For the record, a spokeswoman for the agency, Erin Gillespie maintained she's unaware of any open door policy.

BUDGET TRANSPARENCY MOVES AHEAD....During the spring House Speaker Steve Crisafulli and Rep. Richard Corcoran put in place a formal process that required House members to answer questions about projects they wanted funded in the state budget.

That process is getting even more involved heading into 2016. Last week the House even had a webinar/training session to explain how it would work.

A memo from Corcoran explains that while the "technical process" has changed that the content of information is the same as before. "However, the timeliness of your submission will be a factor in making budget decisions since it my expectation that all budget issues need to be thoroughly vetted," Corcoran wrote.

One of the more interesting factors about the new system is that House members who want to make a budget request must do it online with a computer owned by the House. The online links used will automatically assign a number to the member who makes the request.

The big question then for the House will be this: Once the requests are received will all of them be placed online so members of the public can see them?

If that's done then the Legislature will have fully reinstated the "Community Budget Issue Request System" even if it has a different name. That system was eliminated during the Great Recession when legislators were cutting budgets, but it was never reinstated once the economy began to turn.

RECORDS SHOW THAT PARTY AFFILIATION WAS STRESSED IN APPOINTMENT OF ELECTIONS OFFICIAL...Late last summer a reporter with The Apalachicola Times asked for documents regarding a decision made by Gov. Scott to appoint Franklin County Commissioner Pinki Jackel as the new elections supervisor in the small coastal county. Scott had made the decision to appoint Jackel even though the outgoing supervisor Ida Cooper Elliott (who died from cancer earlier this month) had recommended that the governor tap her assistant supervisor Heather Riley for the job.

"I fully support and hope that Heather would be considered for appointment,'' wrote Elliott. "I have the utmost confidence in her and her abilities to run this office."

The governor's office waited two months before they handed over those records.

And what did they show?

That Jackel - and some of those boosting her appointment - stressed her Republican ties as one of the reasons Scott should pick her for the job of overseeing elections.

Jackel's own application for the job stated: "When elected in 2008, I became the only Republican in Franklin County since reconstruction. I was re-elected in 2012 with 67% of the vote. I remain the only elected Republican and have been a registered Republican since 2004 when I moved back to Florida. I have never changed my party affiliation."

Jackel put down the chairman of the Franklin County Republican Party as one of her references for the position. Ned Pooser, a GOP state committeeman, also wrote a glowing endorsement letter for her appointment that pointed out that the county party backed her.

"She is extremely bright, and a fierce advocate of the 'let's get to work ethic,' wrote Pooser. "The Franklin Republican Executive Committee unanimously endorses her appointment; and I echo that sentiment. The county will benefit by her appointment, as will our party."

For once Rick Scott follows the Charlie Crist playbook

One of the many things that Republicans, including those in Florida, have complained about President Barack Obama is his use of executive power, most recently of course seen in his executive order dealing with immigration.

Florida is one of the more than two dozen states that late last year joined the lawsuit filed by Texas challenging the president's actions.

At the time Attorney General Pam Bondi contended that her decision to join the other states was not about immigration but to undo what she termed "unwarranted presidential overreach."

"This lawsuit is about President Obama-yet again-overstepping the power granted to him by our United States Constitution," Bondi said.

She then added: "The powers granted to the President are expressly laid out in the United States Constitution, yet President Obama has decided to ignore those parameters."

In Tallahassee this week, Florida Gov. Rick Scott exerted his own kind of executive authority, and one that could theoretically also be challenged as "overreach."

Scott issued an executive order on Tuesday that authorized Education Commissioner Pam Stewart to suspend an 11th grade standardized test that was about to be given to high school juniors this spring.

Scott took the action in response to a testing investigation undertaken by Stewart at his urging last year while he was on the campaign trail. Stewart in her summary of that investigation suggested getting rid of the test even though it was just approved last year and was included in a bill (HB 7031) that repealed mention of Common Core in state law.

The wording of Scott's order was interesting.

First off, Scott asserts that his authority to give Stewart the power to suspend the test is vested in the state constitution. The language he cites is from the first part of Article IV, which states that the governor "has supreme executive power."

Nowhere does Scott contend that there is an emergency that requires him to act now regarding the test.

But the governor kind of acknowledges that he is telling Stewart not to follow the law, saying he is taking action now because the "Legislature will have opportunity to consider repeal of the statutory requirement" that now mandates the test. (It's not clear whether or not lawmakers will in fact do that.)

Florida's governor does not enjoy the same scope of executive power as the president although the governor is arguably more powerful now than two decades ago. Changes in the constitution and state law - especially during the Jeb Bush years - has strengthened the governor's hand.

But usually the only time the governor can suspend or waive the law is when there is an emergency such as a hurricane. Most of the time the governor's executive orders deal with matters as appointing a prosecutor from another judicial circuit to handle a case because another prosecutor has a conflict.

Former Gov. Charlie Crist, however, building on Bush's use of executive orders issued executive orders that privately some Republicans grumbled were not legal, most notably his decision to extend early voting hours during the 2008 election (and which Crist said was justified by an emergency).

One top Republican at the time said it would have created a public relations disaster to sue Crist over the order, not to mention it wasn't clear if a court would act quickly enough to block the order from taking effect.

This wasn't the only time, however, Crist would use an executive order in a legally questionable way.

In his final months in office he issued an executive order that extended jobless benefits approved by Congress even though the Legislature had not authorized it. Crist took the action even though past extensions had been passed by state legislators and it was assumed that the benefits would lapse absent legislative action.

Just as it had happened with the voting executive order, no one challenged Crist's authority that time either.

And that's probably what will happen with Scott as well. It's hard to imagine anyone who would go to court to force 11th graders to take a test.

But this could signal a decision by Scott to be more assertive in his use of executive authority despite signs that he may have a tough time getting fellow Republicans in the Legislature to follow his lead during a second term.

And perhaps when Scott greets Obama on the tarmac in Miami today they could regale each other about the use of executive orders.

Rick Scott's Year of Living Dangerously

When Gov. Rick Scott announces new unemployment numbers this morning there's little doubt he will continue to insist that his policies have helped the state's economy recover.

It will cap off what the Scott team will view as another successful week - and a sign that the 2014 election campaign is turning their way.

Part of that perception will be tied to the release of a new poll this week that saw Scott and former Gov. Charlie Crist nearly tied 10 months before Election Day (and on-going rumblings about the state of the Crist campaign.)

Lost in the discussion of the robocall poll, however, was this stark fact: That 51 percent of those polled disapproved of the job Scott has done as governor. This is a trend that has remained firmly constant since 2011.

And the few short weeks of this year have already shown that Scott is going to find himself continually confronted with a lot of other issues that have nothing to do with the state's unemployment rate.

Already this year there has been a lawsuit seeking to overturn Florida's ban on gay marriage. Proposals to raise the minimum wage. The likely addition to the ballot of a constitutional amendment that would approve the use of medical marijuana. A protest against the renewal of an effort to remove potential non-U.S. citizens from the voter rolls.

If anyone had any doubts that the 2014 campaign is already in full swing this should end it.

This is not to say that the timing of all these events are driven entirely by Scott's re-election bid. (Although one of the groups that has been bashing Scott is part of an effort to defeat him.)

But between now and November you can rest assured that groups and organizations on opposite sides of Scott will continue to find ways to draw attention to their differences.

And Democrats challenging Scott _ including Crist _ have made sure to note these policy differences. Crist went so far as to apologize for his past opposition to gay marriage when he was a Republican.

So the point is clear: A counter-offensive is firmly underway. And now, and into the annual legislative session, and through the summer, there will be constant reminders - and attempts to earn media coverage about Scott and his positions in the hope that it will resonate come November.

The question remains whether or not Scott and his team can successfully negotiate the hurdles that remain in the way, especially since Scott has begun to move back to the avoid-the-media. avoid the questions, remain on message counter-punch that so characterized his 2010 run. (Quick: When was the last time Scott went before an editorial board? Had a press availability that lasted more than eight to 10 minutes?)

This won't be a complete re-run of the 2010 race, largely because Scott is now the insider, the one guiding the government. That's not stopped Scott and his team from trying of course: They've ditched the compromise talk about 'Obamacare," they blame President Barack Obama on issues such as flood insurance or the Everglades, and Scott's surrogates at the Republican Party of Florida are making sure to link Crist and Obama at every turn.

Still here's some of the key remaining hurdles between now and November:

Scott's legislative agenda: With just weeks away from the start of the 2014 session Scott's legislative agenda has been relatively light. The main policy initiatives he's publicly advocated have been primarily tied to the budget.

These include his desire for a rollback of automobile registration fees and a 10-day sales tax holiday. He's calling for spending on environmental programs and boosting child protection efforts. Scott will likely call for some type of increased spending on education although the math - and announced spending priorities so far - would render it highly unlikely the governor could increase education spending as much as he did last year.

Beyond that there has been very little signs that Scott plans to do much in the way of serious policy initiatives. So the strategy here seems to hope for a few wins that register with rank-and-file Floridians and try not to do anything else that stirs people up.

The question, as always, is whether Scott's allies in Legislature will be content to follow that lead. The answer right now appears to be largely yes, whether it's taking the position of deferring any serious resolution of gambling issues by leaving it up to voters, or avoiding any serious debate again this year on the contentious topic of Medicaid expansion. Case in point: The Republicans who control the Legislature have not made much noise about the ongoing problems with Florida's troubled website/unemployment compensation system.

But legislators don't view themselves as automatons who are there to do only what the governor wants. They will file bills, and pursue items, that could be at cross-purposes with the smooth sailing that Scott and his team want heading toward the election. It would be hard to imagine, for example, that Scott would want an alimony reform bill on his desk again this year following last's year polarizing debate and what appears to be a sizable gender gap problem among voters.

Rebranded, rebooted Rick Scott: Last week the Scott team announced that Melissa Sellers, the communications director for Scott, was changing jobs to that of campaign manager. There are also reports of plans to quickly build up a staff and there was a shuffling of positions from the Republican Party of Florida to the campaign.

So what does this really mean? On the first part, it was the most overt sign that some of the masterminds of Scott's successful 2010 campaign - including pollster/consultant Tony Fabrizio - will not have as prominent a role this time around. During her time in the governor's office Sellers was a loyal partner with chief of staff Adam Hollingsworth and played a much more prominent role in helping guide policy than previous communications directors.

But it's also a sign that Scott himself will have much more command over the decision-making and doesn't need a lot of outsiders this time around.

This is not an unexpected development. Scott's biography shows time and time again that a lack of experience in a particular area does not stop him from pushing ahead, most notably when he was a Dallas lawyer who decided to go in on a business deal to buy two hospitals and wound up running one of the nation's largest health care chains.

The danger here is that neither Scott, nor Sellers, nor Hollingsworth have really run a statewide campaign in a place as diverse as Florida. The strategy so far appears includes utilizing a sizable cash advantage to pummel Crist or whoever the nominee winds up being, and use precise microtargeting to identify and motivate voters on the right and the center who could help on Election Day.

Another part of the effort is the slow, yet methodical attempt to reintroduce Scott as just an ordinary, yet successful person who Floridians can trust to understand their economic fears. Scott let people know during his first campaign that he spent time in public housing. Now Scott has slowly added more details, including that his mother nearly gave him up for adoption, that the family car was repossessed. It's true that Scott appears more comfortable than before, but he still has trouble diverging from his printed talking points. This still makes some of his appearances and speeches appear robotic. Of course, the great thing is that this is not a problem when it comes to television commercials.

Exodus and embarrassment: This is not a prediction, but with a re-election campaign comes a renewed focus by opponents and the media to look for any traces of embarrassing disclosures or borderline unethical behavior. Scott has already gone through multiple chief of staffs, several education commissioners, and other agency heads that have caused varying degrees of collateral damage. There is always the chance that something bubbles up to the surface just months or weeks ahead of the election. Political operatives know that the timing of a disclosure can be just as important as the information itself.

As previously stated no one should ever underestimate or doubt Scott's resolve. He resisted any talk of leaving office after one term and he made it clear he was willing to raise and spend large amounts of money to keep his job. If Crist is the Democratic challenger than the Scott team will have gotten the nominee they wanted all along. The expectation is that despite tensions between Scott and other prominent Republicans that they will remain united against their common foe.

Clearly Scott's situation appears to be better than it was just a few months ago. But it would still be premature to for anyone to say that victory is certain. There is still time, and plenty of opportunities, for things to fall apart.

Could any of these bills get vetoed by Gov. Rick Scott?

Gov. Rick Scott on Wednesday will sign several bills that consist of the "jobs agenda" that he outlined last fall.

And that's when it will start to get interesting.

There have been few surprises so far since the 2012 session ended. Scott signed the "inspirational messages" bill and this latest batch of legislation includes an overhaul of the unemployment compensation system and tax breaks, including another small cut of the state's corporate income tax.

But in the next few weeks Scott will sort out the remaining bills from this year and figure out whether or not he plans to go along with many of the ideas that his GOP colleagues in the Legislature acted on.

Not counting his budget vetoes, Scott last year vetoed 10 bills sent to him by state lawmakers, which is actually on par, or even a little bit below other governors in recent years.

Gov. Charlie Crist - who was at war with lawmakers during his independent bid for U.S. Senate in 2010 - vetoed 17 bills his final year in office (several of which were later overridden) and 18 bills in 2007. Back in 2005 then Gov. Jeb Bush a.k.a. "Veto Corleone" nixed some 36 bills sent to him by the Legislature.

It was Bush who told Scott in an email before he became governor that it was okay to veto "stupid bills."

Here then are some bills to watch Scott on in the next few days and weeks:

HB 5301: Back when Scott was campaigning against Bill McCollum in the GOP primary in 2010 he actually came out against what he called mandates being imposed on local governments. Scott told a group of business leaders in Panama City that he did not support strict limits on spending and taxes for local governments, saying at the time "I believe that what Tallahassee should be doing is dealing with Tallahassee issues." 

But sitting on his desk is a budget conforming bill that contains a contentious provision that withholds money from counties in an effort to collect $325 million in contested past-due Medicaid billings. County governments have argued this is yet another mandate, an argument that should have some resonance with Scott.

This legislation, however, includes several other changes, including a limit on how many times Medicaid will pay for hospital emergency room visits for non-pregnant adults and a provision that would allow the children of state employees to be enrolled in the state's subsidized KidCare program. Scott must act on this bill this week but there are signs that he will let it become law because it is tied to the state budget. (UPDATE: Scott signed the bill, although in a letter the governor tried to assuage counties that the state would "work diligently" to make sure that all the billings are valid and accurate. Counties, meanwhile, sharply criticized the decision as a "body blow" to taxpayers.)

HB 7129: This is the tuition bill for the University of Florida and Florida State University. If it becomes law the legislation would allow these two research universities to raise tuition annually above the existing 15 percent cap that now exists in state law. The logic behind the bill - which was a top priority for House Speaker Dean Cannon - is to give UF and FSU the financial resources to make themselves more nationally competitive. But the bill also clashes with Scott's oft-repeated line that tuition should not go up this year and that universities ought to give him more examples of spending existing money wisely before hiking tuition. (UPDATE: Scott vetoed this legislation saying it would increase the debt burden of students.

SB 1994: The Florida Polytechnic University bill. This is the legislation pushed by Sen. J.D. Alexander that would officially divorce the Lakeland branch campus of the University of South Florida and turn into the state's 12th public university. Scott so far has refused to take a stance on the creation of a new school, but has expressed skepticism about it. The problem for Scott, however, is if vetoes the bill then he wipes out $16 million in funding, including $6 million for the USF College of Pharmacy and $10 million to allow current USF Polytechnic students to complete their degrees at USF. (UPDATE: In a bit of surprise, Scott signed this legislation into law.)

HB 7117: This is an energy bill that was championed by Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam. But the legislation - which includes $16 million in renewable energy tax credits - has come under fire by several different groups, including conservative organizations as well as the Florida Renewable Energy Producers Association. Scott during his first two years in office has continued to be skeptical about energy issues, although his main objection has centered around proposals that would raise utility bills in order to pay for renewable energy. (UPDATE: Scott signed this law although he expressed concerned about some of the provisions.)

HB 5011: State Information Technology. For most people outside of Tallahassee, this bill means little. But it's a big deal for the lobbyists and others who make a living off the millions spent by the state on technology. This bill blows up an existing state agency - the Agency for Enterprise Information Technology - and creates a new agency called the Agency for State Technology which reports to the governor and Cabinet. For those who aren't keeping count this would be the third reconfiguration of how the state handles technology issues in the last decade. The legislation also halts and repeals an already begun process to consolidate the state's email service. Rep. Denise Grimsley, the House budget chief, defended the move to get rid of the email consolidation, contending it would wind up costing the state more than anticipated. But it's worth pointing out that Scott himself early on wondered aloud why state government had multiple email accounts as opposed to the way that most businesses handle it. (UPDATE: Scott vetoed the bill.)

HB 945: Broadband Internet Service. This is another bill that not a lot of people kept an eye on. It transfers a federal stimulus-backed program from one state agency to another. But the legislation was pushed into law at the urging of lobbyists who work for a vendor that held a state contract that was not renewed. The Associated Press already reported that the legislative proposal was so closely aligned with the lobbying firm of former Republican Party of Florida chairman Al Cardenas that the Senate bill sponsor referred questions about the bill to a lobbyist working for Cardenas. That same AP story pointed out that the state agency now in control of the program has warned internally that the transfer will require federal approval and could put millions in federal grants in jeopardy. (UPDATE: This bill was signed by the governor.)

HB 937: Legal notices. Just consider this one a bit of a hunch. Scott of course famously shunned newspaper editorial boards during his 2010 campaign for governor. But since that time he has actually taken a keen interest in the news industry, including recent business moves in Florida such as the decision by Halifax Media to acquire papers owned by the New York Times Company. This legislation is aimed at ending a few years of battle over the future of legal notices. The bill requires the online listing of legal notices for no extra charge, but also keeps them in printed newspapers. In previous years legislators had tried to end the use of printed legal notices completely. The final product is supported by the Florida Press Association so it will be interesting to see how the governor responds.

Rick Scott's incomplete grade

Gov. Rick Scott - who has billed himself as Florida's jobs governor - says repeatedly that he receives a new grade every month when Florida's unemployment rates are released.

But maybe the grade Scott should get in his first year in office is an incomplete.

Why?

Because it turns out that the numbers that Scott relies on are nothing more than preliminary estimates based on a survey of 2,500 households.

Additionally, it is likely that the numbers will be changed in March.

Here's the full story on the benchmarking and process changes that could mean that the 2.1 percentage drop that Scott has praised may be inaccurate.

As the story points out economists and others who follow unemployment data know that the numbers are subject to revision.

Some of these changes are small, yet other revisions are quite substantial. For example, the reported unemployment rate in March 2010 was 12.3 percent. In March 2011 that rate was substantially changed and lowered to 11.3 percent.

Because of the change the December 2010 unemployment rate of 12 percent is now listed as the highest on record. (State unemployment rates date back to the '70s.)

Here's a look at how much the numbers changed the last two years from what they were initially reported.

Florida Unemployment Rates (seasonally adjusted)
Before Benchmark Compared to After Benchmark January 2009 to December 2010
	Unemployment Rates
Month/Year	Before Benchmark	After Benchmark (current)
Jan-09	8.7	8.5
Feb-09	9.2	9.0
Mar-09	9.6	9.4
Apr-09	9.9	9.7
May-09	10.2	10.0
Jun-09	10.5	10.2
Jul-09	10.8	10.5
Aug-09	11.0	10.6
Sep-09	11.2	10.8
Oct-09	11.4	10.9
Nov-09	11.6	11.1
Dec-09	11.7	11.2
Jan-10	12.0	11.3
Feb-10	12.2	11.3
Mar-10	12.3	11.3
Apr-10	12.0	11.3
May-10	11.7	11.3
Jun-10	11.4	11.4
Jul-10	11.5	11.5
Aug-10	11.8	11.6
Sep-10	11.9	11.7
Oct-10	11.9	11.8
Nov-10	12.0	11.9
Dec-10	12.0	12.0
Source:  Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program, in
cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

When you look at the numbers, you realize that Scott's reliance on them may be a bit premature.

And these changes have nothing to do with the debate of actual workers vs. discouraged workers. For example, Florida's 9.9 percent unemployment rate is actually 10.8 percent if you include discouraged workers into the equation.

Now it is worth noting that a separate figure highlighted by Scott - the actual growth in the number of jobs - is derived from a separate survey of businesses. State economists say that between 10,000 to 15,000 businesses are questioned to get an idea on whether jobs are being added or lost.

While economists know these numbers are subject to change, they have gained a political currency in the last few years.

Former Gov. Charlie Crist, for example, praised a reported drop in unemployment that occurred in April, May and June of 2010. The new data shows that the drop never happened and in fact the unemployment rate remained flat in the spring of 2010 before climbing back up.

This allows Scott to say - as he has a couple of times now - that jobs were lost for "four straight years" until he came into office.

The question now is whether the revised numbers for 2011 will be as good as Scott has advertised them.

 

 

 

 

Big tax hike could hamper Gov. Rick Scott's push for jobs

In a series of recent stump speeches, Gov. Rick Scott has emphasized that his goals remain simple: Keep down the cost of living, create jobs and improve education.

Scott's agenda for 2012 includes a smattering of additional tax cuts and a continued drive to eliminate regulations that could be holding back growth in a state that is dealing with 10.6 percent unemployment.

But now there's a big tax hike on the horizon that could hamper his plans.

For two years, state lawmakers have pushed back significant hikes in the state's unemployment compensation taxes.These are the taxes that are used to help pay benefits to the nearly 1 million people out of work.

But preliminary figures released Thursday show the minimum tax rate for employers is expected to jump from $72.10 per employee to more than $170 per employee. The maximum rate is also expected to rise from $378 to $459 per employee.

"This is a big deal," said David Hart, executive vice president of the Florida Chamber of Commerce. "The last thing we ought to be doing is putting additional burdens on employers."

Here's the full story about the tax hike.

So far neither Scott nor the Republican-controlled Legislature has talked much about this. Even the Chamber itself gave the issue only a brief mention in its 2012 list of priorities.

But Hart himself says discussions are already underway to try to convince state lawmakers that something needs to be done to "soften the burden."

It's not as if this is surprising since lawmakers nearly two years ago delayed another big tax hike. But back then the hope was that the economy would have turned around enough by 2012 so that employers could afford the higher costs.

One of the ways the state could ease the burden on employers is by rolling back some of the planned tax increases, but the downside is that it extends the amount of time it will take the state to pay back the federal government.

Right now the state owes $1.7 billion in loans that were used to keep the unemployment compensation trust fund solvent since 2009.

This year business owners paid a special assessment to cover interest that is now owed on the outstanding balance. But there's an additional penalty if the state does not promptly repay the federal government: The loss of federal tax credits. (Right now employers get a tax credit for their state unemployment taxes that is deducted from federal taxes they owe.)

Scott, who rolls out his 2012 budget proposal in early December, could offer to have the state to pay the interest charges in the coming year if the big tax hikes are delayed yet again.

But the problem for the governor is he is dealing with a projected budget shortfall that ranges - depending on who you ask - from $1.2 billion to $2 billion.

The question for the governor and the GOP-controlled Florida Legislature is whether or not the unemployment compensation tax hike rises to the level that it trumps other budget and tax considerations.

Would Scott, for example, go along with helping stall the unemployment tax hike which will affect nearly 460,000 businesses across the state in exchange for backing off his push for another small cut in the corporate income tax that he has vowed to eliminate in seven years?

Or does Scott come up with enough cuts to accommodate the shortfall, the tax cuts he has already proposed, as well as take care of unemployment tax hike?

Mark your calendars: On Dec. 8 we should know the answer.