The Fine Print

Florida turned upside down: 5 takeaways about the 2018 election

  With just under 100 days left before Florida voters decide the crucial 2018 election, President Donald Trump held a boisterous rally on Tuesday night with 10,000 people in Tampa where he enthusiastically urged his supporters to back U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis for governor in the upcoming Republican primary.

Trump's backing of DeSantis is already being seen as a fatal blow to Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam, who for most of the last year appeared to rolling smoothly in his quest to succeed Florida Gov. Rick Scott.

1 big takeaway....The Trump primary

The rally in Tampa and the downward drag on Putnam emphatically shows the outsized importance of all things Trump in the Aug. 28 primary.

In a year when toxic algal blooms are fouling the state's waters ,the shooting at Parkland prompted a reluctant Florida Legislature to act on guns, and Stand Your Ground laws are once again being scrutinized- the defining issue in the primary remains the president.

On the GOP side, it's more than just the holding a rally and tweeting out his support. Candidates up and down the ballot in the Sunshine State are arguing with each other on whether someone is a true believer - or whether someone had once been opposed to Trump before his election in 2016. Case in point: Sen. Greg Steube unearthing old tweets by Rep. Julio Gonzalez to paint him as a "Never Trumper." 

Democrats, meanwhile, are skirmishing over who is the most-anti-Trumper, and how strong their opposition is. Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum likes to point out how he's calling for Trump's impeachment, while candidate Jeff Greene has called Trump a "traitor." Gwen Graham has called Trump a "bully' and "embarrassment." But this fervor isn't contained to just the governor's race. It's playing out in numerous congressional contests as well.

This election cycle is now worlds away from ones where issues such as class size, education, health care and job growth dominated.

In some ways, it began in 2010 when Gov. Rick Scott used criticism of President Barack Obama and fears of rising national debts as a key part of his campaign. But Scott also highlighted immigration and his plans tor turning around the state's economy as other parts of his campaign message.

Just before Trump took stage, the Putnam campaign recognized this new reality that has turned the state's politics upside down.

In a statement Putnam praised Trump, yet at the same time bemoaned that DeSantis "has released zero plans on any Florida issue since announcing his campaign." 

 2. End of traditional campaigns?

The potential demise of Putnam also shows that the tried-and-true methods used by so many candidates in the past are becoming less and less important.

In 2010, Scott's victory showed that an onslaught of television ads could bury a rival who had built up a campaign organization. But if DeSantis wins it shows that a presidential endorsement - and a bevy of appearances on Fox News - can blunt money, staffing and organizational advantages. (It also shows the diminished impact of local media in a world where everything is seen through a DC-centric, not Florida-centric lens.)

Florida's primary usually has been decided by a small subset of voters. Only 22 percent of voters turned out in the 2010 primary. Normally this would mean that a campaign needed to chase absentee voters and engage in a robust campaign of phone calls and personal contacts in order to get voters to participate. That's why a superior organization was considered crucial.

But another key question emerging this cycle is the role of television ads.

Several campaign consultants have said that TV remains a huge factor in Florida, especially among older voters. There's a possibility, however, that the winning candidate from both the GOP and Democratic side will not have spent nearly as much money on television ads as their rivals. As viewing habits - and consumption of information changes among young voters- it's worth noting that this could be a turning point.

3. Recycling the playbook

There is one campaign that is sticking to some tried-and-true strategies and that's the one Scott is mounting against incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson.

Scott has sold himself has a successful businessman, but that career was overshadowed by scandal. Scott was forced out as CEO of Columbia/HCA shortly after a federal investigation became public. The end result is that Scott's former company paid a then-record fine of $1.7 billion to settle allegations of fraud.

So in three straight elections Scott campaign team (which includes many of the same consultants each time) has gone on the offensive: It's the other candidate who has ethics problems. They took the state plane, they helped a crook defraud investors, etc. The early press releases and even some of the ads in this year's campaign echo this. They are all designed to force Nelson to defend his actions and behavior. It can be argued that some of the actions aren't of equal weight, but that's not the point.

Two other elements at work: Scott in 2010 and 2014 assailed Obama and his policies and tried to link them to the Democratic nominee. Bashing the federal government was part of the governor's talking points and script. Trump's ascension has made that trickier,  but now it's shots at Democrats like Nancy Pelosi and complaints in general about how DC is dysfunctional (no matter that Republicans are in control.)

Last item: Ahead of 2014, Scott made sure to use his power as governor to sidestep or try to mitigate potential controversies bubbling up, especially those happening in key Republican strongholds. It appears to be happening again this year as well.

4. Which voters will show up?

When you talk to those who waged campaigns against Scott, aside from the finger-pointing over went wrong, the real frustration is that he squeezed by each time.

Scott won by nearly 62,000 votes (about 1.2 percent) in 2010 and more than 64,00 votes (1 percent) four years later.

Overall turnout in both elections hovered around 50 percent and Democrats seemed unable to generate the kind of turnout they needed in Democratic strongholds to overtake Scott. (Turnout in the last three presidential contests _ two of which were won by Obama _ have been at 70 percent or above.)

This, however, was before the age of Trump.

Now of course there predictions _ and attempts to debunk _ the notion of a "blue wave" that will translate displeasure with Trump into success at the ballot box. Various Democrats have engaged in back-and-forth over what will make the difference this year: Is it a candidate that appeals to young voters, women voters, or progressives? 

But here's another factor for the Republicans _ and the DeSantis camp especially _ to consider: Can they replicate Trump's numbers?

Trump's 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton in Florida was significant because Clinton actually got more votes than Obama did the two times he carried the state. She came in within 6,000 votes of Trump in places like Duval County.

The difference, however, is the margins Trump rolled up in Republican dominated or Republican-leaning counties, fueled in part by an "impressive" surge of voting that took place on Election Day. (See: Election Daze: Voting Modes and Voter Preferences in the 2016 Election - Authors - Smith, McKee, Hood).

And that translated into substantial margins not previously seen. In Lee County, for example, Trump got 44,000 more votes than Mitt Romney did just four years earlier. Will these voters in Florida who propelled Trump victory two years ago transport their support for the president into this year's midterm?

5. The Puerto Rican Diaspora

Last Saturday San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulín Cruz endorsed Nelson in his battle against Scott and while doing so repeated criticisms against Trump and how his administration responded in the aftermath of last year's Hurricane Maria.

It was the latest chapter in an ongoing push by both Republicans and Democrats to appeal to tens of thousands of Puerto Ricans who flocked to Florida after the devastating storm.

Both Nelson and Scott have traveled to the island territory. Scott for his part offered assistance to Puerto Rican evacuees, even going so far as using his emergency powers to sidestep the Legislature in order to pay for it. Candidates for governor have also focused on Puerto Rico. He stared airing a Spanish-language television and digital ad on Wednesday that stressed he had helped Puerto Ricans.

Former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine chartered a plane and delivered supplies shortly after Maria struck. Gillum traveled to San Juan last weekend.

There are open questions, however, about the impact that evacuees will play in Florida's election.

The Washington Post pointed out a few days ago that so far there is little indication that the Puerto Ricans who left the island are registering to vote in the state.

There's still time for that to change as the election moves closer. But as Orlando legislator Amy Mercado noted to the Post: "Their main focus obviously is going to be survival...The last thing they are thinking about is politics."

And just like that - Gov. Rick Scott cuts ties to Let's Get to Work

So a funny thing happened on Sunday.

Florida Gov. Rick Scott's image and his name and videos disappeared from the Let's Get to Work website. (The photo on the right was taken last Thursday.)

Consider his disappearance just another sure sign of his expected jump into the race for U.S. Senate against incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson. Scott is planning to make a "major" and "big" announcement about his political future on Monday in Orlando. 

Scott first started Let's Get to Work in the heat of the 2010 campaign for governor as an electioneering communication organization amid potential fears that the governor's self-funded campaign would bust a spending cap that could result in Republican primary opponent Bill McCollum getting a dollar-for-dollar match from public financing. Scott sued in federal court and eventually won an important ruling that declared the spending cap law unconstitutional. But the organization remained in play that whole campaign season.

After ECOs as they were known were eliminated by the Legislature, Let's Get to Work became a political committee that then assisted Scott's re-election. But even after he won a second term, the committee paid for television ads meant to push Scott's agenda through a sometimes recalcitrant GOP-controlled Legislature.

But the problem with the committee for Scott is that it relied on large corporate donations, taking checks in from various groups whose business can be affected by Scott and the Legislature. (U.S. Sugar, for example, gave more than $600,000 over a three-year period. Private prison providers, health care providers, utilities, business associations are among the long list of those who gave money.)

So in order to remain complaint under federal election law while he runs for U.S. Senate Scott needed to distance himself from his creation. Hence the makeover of the website this weekend.

It was already clear that the end was coming. Donations stop flowing into the political committee in the last few months. Records _ including those were self-reported by the committee _ show that at this point that Let's Get to Work has less than $200,000 in its bank accounts. The committee has spent more than $57 million since March 2014.

While Scott's name and image have vanished from the website, it now states that "Let’s Get to Work is supported by Lieutenant Governor Carlos Lopez-Cantera.  Its chairman, Abby Dupree, is also associated with this organization."

This was apparently news to Lopez-Cantera, who Scott appointed in January 2014 right ahead of his re-election campaign.

Brian Swensen, who served as campaign manager for Lopez-Cantera's U.S. Senate bid in 2016, said neither he or Lopez-Cantera were aware that the LG was still being associated with Let's Get to Work.

Now while the official Let's Get to Work website has been wiped the videos and ads that the committee did on behalf of Scott still remain on YouTube. 

(UPDATE: Matt Dixon with Politico Florida reported on Sunday night that the New Republican Super PAC has also removed all references to Scott. Scott became chairman of the group last year, but he has to sever his connections to the organization once he becomes a federal candidate.)

Gov. Rick Scott gives up on one of his big promises

Florida Gov. Rick Scott, who has a little more than a year left in office, is releasing his final set of budget recommendations on Tuesday.

And it's sure to contain many of the same items that the Republican governor has recommended in past years: A smattering of tax cuts, probably a small increase in school funding (possibly backed by a rise in property values), and his evergreen request that all state workers pay the same for health insurance. (Legislators have rejected this idea year in and year out.)

But to sound vaguely like a country song, Scott is a long, long way from Eustis, where he rolled out his first budget at an event filled with tea party supporters.

In that first ever proposal, Scott rolled out a spending plan that called for nearly $5 billion in spending cuts in 2011-12 fiscal year, which would then be used to help with $2 billion of recurring tax cuts.

When he first ran for governor, Scott constantly touted his "7-7-7" plan that he said would lead to nearly 700,000 jobs if the plan's seven steps were followed over seven years. (Those 700,000 jobs were on top of normal growth, Scott said at the time, but that's an argument for another time.)

A central plank of this plan to help the state's economy was the elimination of Florida's corporate income tax. Scott promised to completely get rid of it by 2018, starting with a $458 million reduction in year 1 and a $1 billion cut in year 2. (Another promise was to substantially cut the property tax rate charged to homeowners for schools.)

"It’s not a budget that dabbles. It doesn’t offer a little something for every special interest or sweeteners for certain people," Scott said at the time. "It’s a two year budget that faces realities now, rather than putting them off for later. It makes the hard decisions. But it makes the right decisions for Florida’s future."

He added: "We will capture more jobs if other states have a business tax that Florida does not have. We are competing with 49 other states and many countries for entrepreneurs who start, grow and move companies based on where they can get the best return."

But Scott's push for sweeping and deep budget cuts paired with a mammoth tax cut fell flat with the GOP-controlled Legislature.

Still grappling with the fallout from the Great Recession and a budget shortfall, legislators sent Scott a budget that included some tax cuts (mostly property taxes charged by water management districts), spending cuts and a contentious move to deducting money from public employees to help pay for their retirement plans.

Instead of cutting the corporate tax income rate like Scott wanted, legislators instead agreed to exempt businesses from paying the tax if they only made a certain amount of money. Over two sessions the exemption level was raised from $5,000 to $50,000.

The move exempted many businesses from paying the tax, but as Scott leaves office it remains a substantial tax source for Florida government. Legislative economists predicted the state would wind up taking in about $2 billion this year from the corporate income tax.

Scott has tried to include further tweaks to the corporate income tax in his annual spending plans, but he has been unable to make any substantial progress on his initial pledge.

And this year - ahead of a likely campaign for U.S. Senate - the governor didn't even try.

He recently rolled out a modest tax and fee-cutting package that includes tax holidays and a rolling back of driver's license fees. His package was entirely targeted to residents and individuals and included no tax cuts for businesses or

When pressed about it, Scott said recently that he still would like to cut the corporate income tax, but he did not express any disappointment that he was unable to achieve what once was a top goal.

"You fight everyday for the things you think are a priority and that's what I have done," Scott said. "I would love to cut more taxes, but there's actually three branches of government." 

In Florida, it's "all about the base." Or is it?

State senator and former Republican Party of Florida chairman John Thrasher repeated the same mantra when Jeb Bush started his quest to become the first GOP governor to win a second term: "It's all about the base."

Translation: Motivate your core supporters in big enough numbers to negate any advantage the other person and other party may have.

That was 2002 but it might as well have been an eternity ago in Florida politics.

Back then motivating the base was a key reason for Bush's victory (especially coming just two years after the 2000 presidential election chaos showed how divided the state could be in an election.) The late Bill McBride, a first-time candidate, squeezed out a Democratic primary victory over former U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno. The thinking at the time was that McBride could appeal to the middle and independents more than Reno.

But Bush - buoyed by a strong GOP turnout as well as strong support in his adopted hometown of Miami (which was also Reno's hometown) -took 56 percent of the vote. McBride's showing was so bad that Democrat Buddy Dyer, running down ballot against Charlie Crist in the attorney general's race, received nearly 98,000 more votes.

It's no secret that the demographics and dynamics of Florida and its political makeup has shifted since then as much as sand dunes do following a big storm.

So we know that the electorate is not like it was even a decade ago.

When Bush won a second term there were 9.3 million voters. Now there's 11.7 million. While the numbers of Republicans and Democrats has gone up, the number of independent voters not affiliated with any party has gone up dramatically, soaring from 1.5 million in 2002 to nearly 2.67 million by April of this year.

But in this year's governor's race we have two, or if you like, three candidates who are testing the premise that it requires a motivated base in order to ultimately win an election.

And the strategy comes during a year in which elections in Virginia and Mississippi have led to all sorts of speculation and analysis about the strength of the tea party elements in the GOP and what politicians have do to win these days.

Let's start, however, with Rick Scott and his campaign machine that includes the Republican Party of Florida.

It's been hinted at again and again - but let's repeat it anyway: Charlie Crist is the candidate that Scott world wanted from the get-go. There were people in Scott world as it's known who knew that Crist's record as a governor along with his ongoing political transformation would make him an inviting target to contrast with against Scott.

But just as importantly the hope is that animus against Crist - i.e. the turncoat, the "back stabber" who now supports the hated Obamacare - will motivate Republicans to get out in force come election time in 2014.

Because at the same time Scott and his campaign have taken a variety of policy turns in the last two years that in essence go against the wishes of the tea party folks and those in the base that helped Scott four years ago. In other words, Scott's campaign strategy is - Republicans hate Crist so they will get out in force - but at the same time we will court moderates and the middle.

Consider that since the start of 2013 Scott has done the following:

* Backed expansion for Medicaid a key component of President Barack Obama's health care overhaul.

* Supported and signed legislation that extend in-state tuition rates to undocumented students living in Florida despite criticism from members of his own party that it was "pandering" to certain types of voters.

* Signed a limited medical marijuana bill.

* Refused to go along with calls to outright repeal Common Core State Standards in Florida. Instead Scott has gone along with a series of steps intended to try to address some of the concerns expressed by activists and grassroots groups angered by Common Core. These included jettisoning the words Common Core from state law even though Florida standards remain based primarily on Common Core. He also signed bills that ban schools from collecting data and give parents more of a say over local textbook choices.

* Has come out in support of All Aboard Florida _ a proposed rail line linking Orlando to Miami _ despite a growing backlash in certain GOP-leaning communities. Scott has had the state support funding for projects that will ultimately help the rail line achieve its goals even if the money isn't going directly to the rail line. it seems an eternity ago when Scott had the state reject billions from the federal government for a high speed rail line between Orlando and Tampa.

If you look at this list you can see that Scott is taking a calculated risk that Common Core or immigration issues won't come back to haunt him like they have other Republican candidates. In other words, he's counting on Republicans to work hard for him despite taking positions that may antithetical to the base.

It was just a few days ago U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz get a good reception from Miami-Dade Republicans when he went after Common Core. There's a wave that has been cresting across the country that has prompted governors in Louisiana, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Indiana to re-think their education policy in response to the growing chorus of opposition to Common Core which has been at its loudest among GOP activists.

Scott has reportedly told some activists that "Common Core is out" in Florida which is an artful, yet one could say misleading, way to phrase it. He's right that Common Core isn't on the books anymore. But the ghost is still in the machine and it's still guiding what the state is doing.

Scott's re-thinking of his immigration positions are also potentially perilous as well.

Polling has shown that the issue of in-state tuition resonates big with Hispanic voters who are a growing force in Florida and could help decide the race. Yet at the same time it's an issue that has hurt Florida politicians at times. (U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez's decision to forgo a 2010 re-election may have been a personal one, but there's no doubt his embrace of immigration reform had made him a likely target for a challenge from the right.)

So while you have Scott trying to pivot to the middle if he can, you have Crist and Democratic challenger Nan Rich battling over the Democratic base.

And in that instance there is an effort to damage Crist so he will be seen in a less favorable light among Democratic activists and grassroots.

Crist of course has reinvented himself and had changed his positions on such issues as same-sex marriage. Despite his "evolution" or flip-flops, however you wish to term it, he has picked up support from key Democratic-leaning organizations such as the AFL-CIO and the Florida Education Association.

But there are groups _ whose funding is shrouded in mystery _ who are trying to remind Democratic voters that Crist was once a solid Republican.

As reported by the Orlando Sentinel the group Progressive Choice _ which has also sent out mailers attacking Crist _ is now running radio ads that attack him for his efforts to bring back chain gangs to the state. Another radio ad took Crist to task for creating a "lost generation" of African-Americans.

It is not known who is bankrolling the effort and of course Crist's operatives speculate that is a front for Republicans.

Regardless of the origin it would appear the strategy could either A)Diminish enthusiasm in the Democratic base for Crist and/or B)Drive up Rich's numbers in the August primary to emphasize Crist's vulnerability. There are some who are hoping that Rich tops 40 percent so that Crist will look like damaged goods heading into the general election.

So in other words this could create a dream scenario for Scott where Republicans upset about Crist show up in force (say somewhere less than the 2010 anti-Obama wave year but still strong enough) and Democrats don't because they are lackluster in their love of Crist once he secures the nomination.

Ok. It could work.

But what if Democrats motivate their base by emphasizing this is a chance to defeat Scott. Despite Scott's attempt to recalibrate his image, he remains for lack of a better word, a villian to the left. Scott and his campaign have made an effort to soften and rebrand him (Constant reminders of his grandchildren, constant mentions that his father lost his job often, that he lived in public housing etc. etc.)

And everyone in the GOP side has taken comfort that Crist's numbers have fallen. Yes, but Crist really hasn't taken to the airwaves yet. What happens then? What if the ads - and the reminders about Scott's record - resonate? You can see it coming: Scott cut education, Scott turned down high speed rail, Scott' lacks integrity because of his time at Columbia/HCA.

Yes, I know some will say, well it didn't work back in 2010. Um, yes. But Scott wasn't a known commodity back then. He presented himself as a business guy who would turn around the economy. Yes, he has the positive that the economy is slowly recovering and the unemployment rate has dropped. (But even that narrative will be tested in the months ahead because the signs are that the rate will likely stay the same, or only dip slightly. That's the curse of an improving economy. As more people reenter the work force, it's harder to move the needle.)

The bottom line remains - what happens if the make Crist a bad guy strategy doesn't really work?

Back in 2002 despite a smaller voting base Bush received 2.85 million votes.

Eight years later Scott got 2.6 million in a big year for Republicans. Marco Rubio got more votes for U.S. Senate than Scott and he was in a three-way race with both Crist and U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek.

This time around there's no Rubio on the ballot to help drive Republicans to the polls. There's just Scott.

And we will see whether it's still "all about the base."

"Rick Scott could be at zero percent approval...."

It's no secret that Gov. Rick Scott's poll numbers have steadily gone downhill since he was first sworn in as governor.

There is some debate as to whether or not Scott's numbers are as bad as the latest poll from Quinnipiac University showed. Some newer GOP-leaning polls have suggested that the 29 percent number given to Scott by Quinnipiac may be too low.

Still Scott's poll numbers have triggered some debate and speculation on whether his unpopularity could aid President Barack Obama and the Democrats in Florida come next year.

There are some who obviously think mentioning Scott could help them.

U.S. Rep. Ted Deutch on Tuesday, for example, sent out a fundraising pitch for this quarter that asked his supporters to "send Rick Scott" a message as state lawmakers get ready to redraw districts.

But others say that the fate of Obama is tied to the national economy, not anything that Scott does.

"Rick Scott could be at zero percent approval, and if unemployment is at 10.5 percent or 11 percent, then Barack Obama is not getting re-elected,” Rick Wilson, a Republican strategist working for Adam Hasner in the United States Senate race in Florida, was quoted in a story that ran Tuesday in the New York Times.

To read the whole story, go here.

 

 

Haridopolos and session fundraising part 2

Senate President Mike Haridopolos is expected to announce a significant fundraising haul since he jumped into the race for U.S. Senate.

The 2011 first quarter numbers for federal candidates is due by the end of the week.

Haridopolos held a series of fundraisers before session, but said recently that he stopped holding them once session started in March. An earlier post relayed an exchange about his fundraising activities and his contention that he follows the law when it comes to fundraising.

That post discussed a federal court ruling from Georgia that has been cited in the past by candidates - both Republican and Democrat - to justify raising money for federal races during session. It was also pointed out that an attorney for the Florida House raised questions about the ruling, but said it was ok for House members to raise money for federal races because House rules specifically exempt federal candidates.

After asking about it several weeks earlier, the Senate on Friday produced its own legal opinion regarding the matter that is dated from 2008.

So to be fair here's the basic premise of that opinion.

Jason Vail, then the general counsel for the Florida Senate, wrote a letter to then-Sen. Bill Posey who had asked about raising money for his Congressional bid during session.

Vail's essential opinion is that Congress own federal campaign laws supersede any state laws and he cites both a 1993 opinion and the 1996 ruling from the federal appeals court in Atlanta previously mentioned.

Vail acknowledges that the 1996 ruling, known as Teper v. Miller, may have "possible weaknesses" but he goes on to say that people are entitled to rely on advisory opinions from the Federal Election Commission and that the commission has concluded that federal law preempted the Georgia law that prohibited state legislators from soliciting or accepting campaign contributions during legislative session.

Vail acknowledges that the Georgia case involved a law and that "the main difference is that in our case, a Senate rule is involved rather than a state statute." Vail then cites a 1979 case that says federal preemption can operate against state rules "therefore I do not consider the distinction to be meaningful."

Bottom line by Vail: The federal government trumps Senate rules and that candidates for federal office are under no obligation to follow them.

Haridopolos, "the law," and fundraising during session

Senate President Mike Haridopolos has had a series of evolving answers when he keeps getting asked about fundraising for his U.S. Senate race.

When he first jumped into the race, Haridopolos said he had not yet made up his mind on whether he would raise money during the 2011 session.

Then in February he added a new answer: Ask incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson if he planned to stop raising money while the U.S. Senate was in session.

The Merritt Island Republican brushed aside any suggestion at the time that his situation was different from Nelson even though the Florida Legislature meets for just 60 days and even though Haridopolos has considerable more power as leader of the state Senate.

So I asked about it this week at his press availability and here's what he had to say:

"I’m not doing any fundraising events," Haridopolos said.

That led to this followup: "You're not doing any fundraising events. You're not making any phone calls, not talking to anybody?"

Haridopolos: "I’m running against someone who is raising money during their session right now. And as you know I follow the law, that’s exactly what I’m doing."

A short while later, I asked a follow-up question which prompted this exchange:

"You said follow the law, I’m confused here because your rules ban fundraising during the session."

Haridopolos: "Gary, you need to read the rules."

"No, I have read the rules sir."

"Let me just finish," Haridopolos said.

"No, the interpretation is based on a federal court ruling. It’s not in your rules."

Haridopolos then said that previous Democratic members of the Florida Legislature had raised money during session:

"We have now Congresswoman (Debbie) Wasserman Schultz, we have Congressman (Ted) Deutch, we have Congresswoman Frederica Wilson, we had former Congressman Ron Klein. They all chose to raise money during session. Al Lawson chose to. That is an opportunity if they choose to do it. All I said, and I said it in this room, is that my opponent Bill Nelson is raising money and has never stopped. And I’m doing the same thing. I’m choosing not to have events as you see me up here every day. You’ve seen our agenda be followed. That’s what people are concerned about and that’s what I’m focused on. I think given the pace that we are going through no one is questioning where my focus is. My focus is how do we turn around this state, how do we turn around this economy, how do we tighten our own belts and that’s exactly what I’m doing."

So let's dissect this just a bit.

In regards to the rules of the Florida Senate, you can read them for yourself:

1.361—Solicitation or acceptance of contributions; registration
and disclosure requirements
(1) During any regular legislative session, extended session, or
special session, a Senator may not directly or indirectly solicit, cause to
be solicited, or accept any contribution on behalf of either the Senator’s
own campaign, any organization described under section 527 or section
501(c)(4) of the Internal Revenue Code, any political committee, any
committee of continuous existence, any political party, or the campaign of
any candidate for the Senate; however, a Senator may contribute to his or
her own campaign.

So how candidates raise money during session? Because there have been series of legal opinions from the attorneys who work for the Legislature on whether the rules apply to those seeking federal office.

Most of those opinions have cited a 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruling from 1996 that struck down a Georgia law that barred legislators in that state from raising money during session if they were a federal candidate. The court concluded that the state could not pass laws that preempted federal campaign finance laws.

Interestingly enough, then-House general counsel Jeremiah Hawkes in 2007 issued a formal opinion where he cast doubt on the use of the federal ruling. Hawkes agreed that a 11th Circuit ruling was binding on Florida, but he added no other court had dealt with the issue and that ruling was not unanimous.

Hawkes also noted that "there does not seem to be any case that invalidates a legislative rule of procedure because of the preemption doctrine. Parliamentary bodies are given a wide range of discretion when it comes to governing the behavior of their members that can go beyond what can be regulated in statute."

Hawkes said in his opinion that House candidates were not barred from accepting contributions from federal races because the House rule was tied to a state law that did not cover federal candidates. Hawkes, however, cautioned that House members still had to follow another rule that says members should not take anything that could be construed to influence their vote.

"The fact that a solicitation was made during session could increase the likelihood that it would be perceived as influencing the member's vote,'' he wrote.

Just to note the Florida Senate does have a similar rule as well:

1.36—Improper influence
A Senator shall not accept anything that will improperly influence his
or her official act, decision, or vote.

But unlike the House rule the current Senate rule on solicitation is not linked to the state law that is limited to just state and local candidates.

 

 

 

Did harsh campaign for governor turn off voters? Report says maybe.

The highly charged and negative campaign for governor might have turned off a higher number of voters this past year.

Or so suggests a new state report drawn up by the Florida Division of Elections.

The report - which is sent to the Florida Legislature after every major election - shows that the number of voters who did not cast a "valid" vote in November nearly doubled from four years ago, surging from .97 percent in 2006 to 1.83 percent overall. This number includes people who wrote down the wrong name on the ballot, left the ballot blank, or cast a vote for more than one candidate.

The biggest reason for the jump was because voters skipped the race between Rick Scott and Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink and left the ballot blank.

You can read more about it here at the Florida Tribune.

Here's a copy of the report: Download Overvote Undervote report

Florida's wild expensive election could have big stakes

Florida's bitter, expensive and wild election season will finally lurch to a close on Tuesday.

Voters, besieged by a barrage of political ads, could be forgiven for thinking that the main issues are Medicare fraud, lockstep devotion to President Barack Obama and reckless plans to raise taxes.

But the election's impact on a state with a million residents out of work and hundreds of thousands of homes in foreclosure looms far more prominently than all that campaign vitriol filling airwaves and mailboxes.

"I think that Florida is at a crossroads and so is our country, and the Florida election can make a determination of the future of America," said Gov. Charlie Crist, running as an independent for U.S. Senate.

Crist's decision to leave office after just one term to run for a Senate seat helped spark a frenzied run for governor and marked the first time in more than 100 years that both the governor and all the seats on the Cabinet were open at the same time.

Democrats hope to win back the governor's mansion after 12 years of Republican control and begin to chip away at GOP dominance of the Florida Legislature.

"There's an opportunity here in this election to bring some balance back," said Karen Thurman, chairman of the Florida Democratic Party.

Florida voters could help decide the direction of the country and the state. They could help Republicans seize the U.S. House, give the Legislature a veto-proof majority, or pass amendments that could alter the state's political makeup.

A longer look at Florida's high-stakes election can be found here.

Crist's demise leaves an uncertain legacy

With polls showing that he continues to lag behind rival Marco Rubio, the hour that Gov. Charlie Crist spent with David Gregory at Tuesday night’s U.S. Senate debate might be his final time in the national spotlight.

Crist, who had successfully climbed from the ranks of the state senate into the governor’s mansion, is now confronted with the prospect that his political career for now is over. His decision to bolt the Republican Party and run as an independent means that he will have few options after this year.

His political ascent was marked by several twists and turns and it is hard to imagine that the man now preaching about independence and moderation once accused Democrats of dirty tricks in getting then-Gov. Lawton Chiles elected over Jeb Bush back in 1994.

But as Crist exits the stage, he leaves behind an uncertain – and largely incomplete – legacy as Florida’s governor. Crist became the first governor to voluntarily give up the post after one term in the 40-plus years that governors have been allowed to seek re-election.

Lance deHaven-Smith, a professor of public administration and policy at Florida State University, said Crist’s legacy actually depends on how the election turns out next week.

“Crist tried to move his party and the state back toward the middle after eight rather polarizing years under Jeb Bush,'' notes deHaven-Smith said in an e-mail. “He did not accomplish much policy-wise compared to many other governors, but he contributed to significant improvements in the state’s civic culture.  If he is elected to the Senate, Florida is likely to see a continuation of this moderation in public office for both parties.  If he loses, well, his legacy of compromise and pragmatism may be short-lived."

David Colburn, a professor of history at the University of Florida and a long-time scholar of state politics, said that Crist clearly tried to work with both political parties and was not ideological in how he approached problems. An example of this, of course, was Crist's decision to embrace the federal stimulus in order to help ease Florida's budget woes.

“I think it is easy to dismiss Crist as a politician who is only interested in getting and holding office and that there really is not much to him,’’ Colburn said in an e-mail.  “Clearly he is not ideological and he made clear to more than one state political leader that "he was not Jeb Bush." By that he meant that he was willing to work with both parties to find solutions to critical issues facing Florida and that he did not dismiss government's role in improving the quality of life for Floridians.”

But Colburn also made it clear that Crist is unlikely to leave the same kind of impact that other governors left.

A full look at Crist's uncertain legacy can be found here at the Florida Tribune.